Week 6 Lookahead Lines vs Bet Online Early Lines/ Discussion

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Philly -2.5/ -2.5
Minn -11/ -10
LAC -1.5/ -1.5
Miami -1/ Chicago -2.5
Washington-1.5/ -2.5
Indianapolis -1 / NY Jets -3
Cincy. -3/ -3
Atlanta -6 / -4
Seattle pk/ -2.5
Houston. -8/ -8.5
Rams. -6/ -6.5
Jax -2.5/. -1.5
Balt -1 / -1.5
NE. -3/ -3.5
GB -8.5 / -7.5 (already 9 now)

Big swings? Miami , Indy, Atlanta , Seattle
 
SEA getting a lot of credit for reasons that aren't clear and likely has nothing to do with the current roster/talent

surprised CIN got to the full 3, expect PIT money there. NYJ getting a lot of credit for waxing a DEN team that nobody sees as a good team?
 
GWarner27 said:
yeah not sure how this team could lay that many to Alabama
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Lol. Pretty sure I’d take bama ml! Previous years I thought when guys said that it was a little silly but now that bama has a legit nfl qb prospect it pretty close for real!!
 
GWarner27 said:
SEA getting a lot of credit for reasons that aren't clear and likely has nothing to do with the current roster/talent

surprised CIN got to the full 3, expect PIT money there. NYJ getting a lot of credit for waxing a DEN team that nobody sees as a good team?
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Loved jets this week, think I may like them again. True Donks not real good but surely you don’t think colts better? Outside qb not sure there a less talented roster in league than Indy’s.. off top of my head line feels short, I think I’d make jets favs on neutral. Far superior defense and run game no?
 
Luck is better than Darnold and i think that's meaningful. NYJ has beaten DET thanks to a million defensive TDs and then today DEN didn't defend the run whatsoever. That seems like it's a desire issue, or maybe the team realizes Vance Joseph is a clown
 
GWarner27 said:
Luck is better than Darnold and i think that's meaningful. NYJ has beaten DET thanks to a million defensive TDs and then today DEN didn't defend the run whatsoever. That seems like it's a desire issue, or maybe the team realizes Vance Joseph is a clown
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Certainly not gonna argue the qb edge, no doubt about that. Not sure why colts would have any more success controlling the run? Their defense is suspect as hell. Also don’t like Indy oline at all, could see luck getting hit a lot and they have no run game whatsoever to take pressure off the passing game.. one thing I’ll have to check is availability of jets Trumane Johnson, I didn’t even know he was out before betting jets this week and it clearly hurt their secondary. Just read he hurt himself in practice Thursday, don’t know extent if injury.
 
GWarner27 said:
i also don't feel very strong about my opinions, just first thoughts when i saw lines vs what i guessed
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Same here mostly. Although do like that under in Miami (only thing I’ll prob jump on early). I just like talking this stuff and still jacked up after big day! lol.
 
hate laying road chalk on a Thursday, but a bet on the eagles this week is essentially a bet on them saving their season. they can't go to 2-4. I think Doug gets it done; the team has been a mess but the giants are really bad

This line says they consider Tampa and Atlanta even on a neutral field? yikes. not sure I agree. I do think points are aplenty in that one.

cincy has just been flat out better than Pittsburgh this year

Cleveland with another short road number; I won with them this week not sure I can take them against a team like the chargers who I do consider to be much better than Baltimore

I may be the square who lays the points in Houston

not sure the Viking should be laying over 10 to anyone right now; good team, but rosen has been competent

luck is better than darnold, but darnold should have a field day at home against the colts d

new England/kc is a hell of a matchup. really hard to see hwo u can go against KC at this point
 
D, normally I would agree but fact of matter is the nfc east is way down and I suspect 9 wins will take the division so while dropping to 2-4 seems daunting I don’t think it would be the end for them. Philly does have a rather tough stretch coming up so who knows but certainly think they capable of losing this game then going 7-3 rest of way. Fully believe your squad will start substantially improving in the coming weeks as wentz gets more time playing with noe mostly healthy wrs, the short week sucks but think they will benefit greatly from the mini bye following that game.
 
Thank goodness I jumped on that under in Miami last night, down to 41.5 already. That a big move as at the number if they both happen to get to 20 it be a loser. I honestly think 20 will win that game but obviously like having the extra cushion that 44 provides!!
 
GB is a broken team but if Brieda is unable to go for SF they have no offense.

They would have cruised to a DD win had he not gotten hurt.
 
GWarner27 said:
saying an awful lot about a scatback
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What's the alternative? Mosart who fumbled on his 1st play which directly led to 7. Al Morris is OK I suppose but no breakaway.

He's an elusive runner and the NFL is now all about "scat backs". He was a top 5 rusher entering the game.

The team is already without Goodwin and Pettis. Brieda is the only speedster left.
 
i just don't think an injury to the most replaceable position in football would have changed much. With that said, SF is pretty much down to scrubs at this point
 
No way in hell a team with Trubisky should be favored on the road. Fins D is strong (third opp. passer rating, seventh opp. YPC) and its Trubisky ffs. Yeah the O is struggling, but getting points here at home is a must. Bears massively overvalued
 
VirginiaCavs said:
No way in hell a team with Trubisky should be favored on the road. Fins D is strong (third opp. passer rating, seventh opp. YPC) and its Trubisky ffs. Yeah the O is struggling, but getting points here at home is a must. Bears massively overvalued
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They were already favored on the road once this year wernt they? In zona by 4.5 I believe, won but didn’t cover. I hear what you saying but think “massively overvalued” is somewhat hyperbolic.

I have no interest playing fish +3 against that defense, I also think Nagy has done a excellent job calling plays and putting trubisky in great positions to succeed, you can see that with how much success they have early w the scripted plays. That leads me to believe off the bye he will have the kid really prepared. Loved the way they involved Cohen in the Tampa bay game and overall think bears weapons a little underrated, Robinson was a good signing as he gives them reliable go to guy on 3rd downs and they have lots of playmakers w big time speed surrounding him to go along w a strong rushing attack. Just saying I wouldn’t want to sleep on the Bears and appears books seeing what I do.

What would you make this on a neutral? I think bears -3/4 is pretty reasonable starting point so certainly agree this a little high assuming Miami HF is worth something which it should be, not so much a tough place to play per say but between the night ife and heat not easiest either!

Thrilled where I’m at w the under 44, that was the number I thought was off. Don’t love it as much where it currently sits cause of reasons I’ve already mentioned. I don’t see phins offense being able to muster a lot of points unless bears simply wear down in the heat. Might be wise to wait and try to get Mia live or at halftime considering how good bears offense has looked early in games. I dunno, it is probably a touch high but no interest being against bears here.
 
In terms of motivation, seems like a bigger game for the Giants than the Eagles, no? A win and they are right in the thick of it in the division. A loss and they are done.

Very important game for Pitt and they have had great success in Cincy. I will be playing them + pts and alternate line.
 
Home dogs have been money in the bank this year, will likely regress at some point though. This week I'm seeing seven of them, likely eight if Carolina is laying a couple in Washington (not up on my book yet). Cleveland will likely go off as a pick or -1. I have zero interest in backing Oakland or Dallas with this angle though.
 
Zeke said:
Home dogs have been money in the bank this year, will likely regress at some point though. This week I'm seeing seven of them, likely eight if Carolina is laying a couple in Washington (not up on my book yet). Cleveland will likely go off as a pick or -1. I have zero interest in backing Oakland or Dallas with this angle though.
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16-6 I believe I saw for home doggies!! Assuming that was ats but guess could have been outright! Lol

Actually saw skins at -1 Sunday night but dunno if it will change after last night?
 
Yeah that's the number I heard on VSIN. Yeah no doubt, I'm sure the majority of those were SU. Seems reasonable to play the +3 home dogs on the ML. Oakland is in London this week, not that I'd back them anyway but they don't fit the angle.
 
Zeke said:
Yeah that's the number I heard on VSIN. Yeah no doubt, I'm sure the majority of those were SU. Seems reasonable to play the +3 home dogs on the ML. Oakland is in London this week, not that I'd back them anyway but they don't fit the angle.
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dude I always forget about the London factor and just assume the second team listed is the home team. its burned me before, such a careless mistake but also very easy to do
 
the more I look at it, the move I like TB/Atl over. ATL went over last week in Pittsburgh and they hardly scored; they will be much better at home. Winstons first start off a bye gotta think he is gonna be slingin it. 34-30 type game there

actually think this is a very bad week for value bettors; lines look good and I don't see too much to exploit. I kind of agree with the Miami points but it is hard to take them against the bears D coming off a bye

Minnesota should rout.

Denver could pull off an upset. love them getting points here. LAR on the road in altitude with injured WRs. Cooks and Kupp could both miss the game and Woods has always been much better when hes not the guy the defenses zone in on. we saw Denver keep mahomes in check for 3 quarters at home. really like this play

Jacksonville is so tough to figure out, but on paper they should shut out dallas.

Are we really going to just be like "ok the steelers are back" bc they handled Atlantas putrid defense at home? cincy has shown nothing but competence all year; no reason to think they are a fluke.

leans:

TB/Atl over 57.5
Minny pk to start a 3 team 10 pointer and leave 2 spots open
Denver +7
Jacksonville -3
Cincy -2.5
 
D-Woww said:
dude I always forget about the London factor and just assume the second team listed is the home team. its burned me before, such a careless mistake but also very easy to do
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Done it plenty myself. Luckily I usually hear it in London before making a play, like just now, I didn’t realize that was a London game, lol. Line makes more sense than Seattle laying that on the road.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Have people forgotten how error-prone and sloppy and stupid Trubisky is because he had one good game and it was against friggin Tampa Bay?!
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Yes, I remember he was a rookie last year. He's improved this year but this isn't all about a QB. It's about a team. Very good team that will be in the thick of their division race all season.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yes, I remember he was a rookie last year. He's improved this year but this isn't all about a QB. It's about a team. Very good team that will be in the thick of their division race all season.
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He had a passer rating bw 73-83 and 4.89-6.3 ypa in three games. He did well against Tampa who ranks dead last in opposing qbr.

NFC Central looks like such a letdown this year. Bears‘ D is really solid i‘ll give you that. Mitch has a lot of new weapons around him and they‘ll gel but to call him a good qb already is far-fetched imo. Hes the weakest qb in the division
 
VirginiaCavs said:
He had a passer rating bw 73-83 and 4.89-6.3 ypa in three games. He did well against Tampa who ranks dead last in opposing qbr.

NFC Central looks like such a letdown this year. Bears‘ D is really solid i‘ll give you that. Mitch has a lot of new weapons around him and they‘ll gel but to call him a good qb already is far-fetched imo. Hes the weakest qb in the division
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Weakest QB in the division... You really went out on the limb there!
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Have people forgotten how error-prone and sloppy and stupid Trubisky is because he had one good game and it was against friggin Tampa Bay?!
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I think if you go back and look at this season you will see he been pretty dang good at beginning of most games while bears on script. Yes as the game goes on and he forced to scan the field and go to his 2nd, 3rd, 4th option his accuracy takes a huge hit. Thing is Nagy really sets him up well for success early in games and that great defense is even better when playing w a lead.. also think getting Cohen involved as they did in that Tampa game will dramatically help trubisky perform better late in games as it pretty easy to hit Cohen and Gabriel on short stuff and let them do their things. So while yes there validity to what you saying I also think you should give more credit to the very good play calling that I think will continue figuring out ways to get those playmakers into space where he has easy well defined reads.
 
2daBank said:
I think if you go back and look at this season you will see he been pretty dang good at beginning of most games while bears on script. Yes as the game goes on and he forced to scan the field and go to his 2nd, 3rd, 4th option his accuracy takes a huge hit. Thing is Nagy really sets him up well for success early in games and that great defense is even better when playing w a lead.. also think getting Cohen involved as they did in that Tampa game will dramatically help trubisky perform better late in games as it pretty easy to hit Cohen and Gabriel on short stuff and let them do their things. So while yes there validity to what you saying I also think you should give more credit to the very good play calling that I think will continue figuring out ways to get those playmakers into space where he has easy well defined reads.
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That would be part of my point. Yeah he's good in the scripted plays. But he's lost without them. The whole rest of the game. So his stats would be so much worse without the plays that Nagy set him up for success with
 
VirginiaCavs said:
That would be part of my point. Yeah he's good in the scripted plays. But he's lost without them. The whole rest of the game. So his stats would be so much worse without the plays that Nagy set him up for success with
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Oh absolutely much worse, wouldn’t argue that at all. Nagy one of my favorite new coaches. Trubisky def loses accuracy when he has to scan the field from what I’ve seen. What I did like in that Tampa game that I think is sustainable Is getting those burners out into space throughout the game to the point I think Nagy figuring him out and will continue doing those things once they off script. The other thing trubisky does do well is use his legs, I think you design those plays for Cohen or Gabriel and tell Mitchell if that isn’t there tuck the ball and get us 5+ yards.
 
Gotta like bears defenses chances of either gettin a score or setting up a few short fields as well.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
That would be part of my point. Yeah he's good in the scripted plays. But he's lost without them. The whole rest of the game. So his stats would be so much worse without the plays that Nagy set him up for success with
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Reminds me of a certain AFC South QB.... Rhymes with Flake Jortles :biglaugh:

jk.. kind of

Lean Pats this week.... Not touching it... Injuries on already thin D for KC not going to help matters.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
No way in hell a team with Trubisky should be favored on the road. Fins D is strong (third opp. passer rating, seventh opp. YPC) and its Trubisky ffs. Yeah the O is struggling, but getting points here at home is a must. Bears massively overvalued
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i want to bet MIA but can already see myself pissed off in the 3q
 
mahomes first "real" road start and DEN is wobbling towards the quit side of the ledger so i don't think they beat the best team in the league with Keenum turning it over

I want to play CIN, but this seems like a game they have to do a ton to win considering PIT dominance (without looking at numbers) in the series

I'm a bit nervous about Jameis, but ATL would give up 9 yds/attempt to me

I also know dwoww is being extreme, but saying JAX will shut out DAL is too much
 
Eagles are one of the worst favorites in the league, especially on the road.

They wear the underdog tag well but when they're expected to win - they stink.
 
Capaholic said:
Reminds me of a certain AFC South QB.... Rhymes with Flake Jortles :biglaugh:

jk.. kind of

Lean Pats this week.... Not touching it... Injuries on already thin D for KC not going to help matters.
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Won't touch because you're waiting on more info or due to where your heart is? Funny that I leaned KC on this one, especially if it reaches 3.5.
 
While KC should get theirs I see no way we stop NE. We can rarely pressure Brady and Houston looks very doubtful. Just signed 2 guys off the street to play OLB. Our Safety and LB play against TE and RB in the pass game is awful. James White will destroy us and Gronk usually does to. I’m always pessimistic about my teams but NE looks easy. Chiefs have to lose sometime right?
 
GWarner27 said:
i want to bet MIA but can already see myself pissed off in the 3q
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2 things that scare me about bears is that d wearing down in the heat as the game gets into 3rd/4th qrtr, also not sure the bye week will be good for them as they obviously had some good momentum to point taking a week off could be detrimental... been considering making a 1st half play on bears then possibly flipping at half if bears have a lead.
 
Zeke said:
Won't touch because you're waiting on more info or due to where your heart is? Funny that I leaned KC on this one, especially if it reaches 3.5.
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My heart says we will win every game. My brain says the things I have already said and aplous echoed my same concerns.
 
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