Week 6 discussion

Mo · Oct 12, 2013

Lexington 125 said:
Starting to warm up to a Packers/Ravens over. Baltimore has faced one elite qb this season, and Peyton threw 7 tds. No Clay and GBs pass d is sketchy anyway- both GB road games got into the 60's. Even if the Ravens decide they want to pound the run, this game could get into the mid 50's... have a tough time seeing either team getting held under 23 points. Anyone have thoughts?

Good shit here. Think I might bite on that total.

Mo · Oct 12, 2013

Lexington 125 said:
Bills/Cincy could go either way total wise, but I don't think I can endorse an over wager. Byrd making his season debut, the deep pass will at the very least be slowed. Dalton gets sloppy and the Bills have the playmakers to make him pay. I wouldn't expect the game plan to include Thad slinging it downfield too often. Leon Hall seems as if he will be returning for Cincy, and Stevie J hasn't practiced yet and had a death in the family. Even with him in don't be surprised to see the Bills run 70% of the time. There will be drive stalls and the clock will likely be running. Could be a field position type battle here, Bills finally wised up and got a decent punter back onto the team. Bengals have a nice defensive front, but GB was able to run on them. We will see how they fare vs the #3 rushing offense in the game, that hasn't even played to their full potential yet. Still think the Bills tt is an over or no play, likely to be lined at 17 juiced. I think I would have to wait to be sure steve is active first though. So leaning Bengals tt under/Bills tt over but there is not much wiggle room. May very well be grabbing the points over the total play, already on the ML

Lex, Where the hell did you come from?? This is an awesome analysis.

Mo · Oct 12, 2013

Surprised that no one has mentioned the Colts/Bolts total. 2 decent offenses along with 1 shitty defense on MNF. Has all the makings of an over.

Mo · Oct 12, 2013

MusicCityGambler said:
Steelers make a lot of sense. Great spot. Geno, like any rookie is bound to be wildly inconsistent from week to week as the last two games have shown.

I'm not sure what the best option is between Moneyline, spread or tease.

I think this is 1 of those games where you could make a strong case for Pittsburgh. But, if I were to bet this game. I'm betting the Jets. The Steelers are pretty bad. And this Jets team has some fight in em. IF, (big IF) Geno doesn't turn the ball over. The Jets could wind up spanking dat ass real bad.

Mo · Oct 12, 2013

This a very good thread. A lot of good thoughts. I'm going to work harder at this weekly shit; So I can give some decent input. I like this thread. Making me rethink a few plays I have.

Mo · Oct 12, 2013

emkee said:
SU, ATS and Totals through Week's 1-5...

Home Teams 48-28 SU (44-30-2 ATS)

Favorites 49-26 SU (37-36-2 ATS)

Home Dogs 12-14 SU (16-10 ATS)

DD dogs 2-8 SU (6-4 ATS)

Overs v Unders 40-37

the contrarian approach to investing in the NFL this year has prouduced negative returns. There WILL be a correction.

ManchesterUk · Oct 12, 2013

Lexington 125 said:
Buying low on the Texans in some fashion sunday. Texans off 3 straight losses with the Rams off a blowout home win vs the Jags. Let's not forget the Texans lost to 3 potentially playoff bound teams, Rams are not in that category. I have visions of Watt all over Bradford from the jump. Texans team total will be 24.5, but it is more than justified even with the way Shaub had played.

Rams allowed

24 vs Zona
31 @Atl
31@Dal
35 vs SF
20 vs Jax

Finally a game where Foster can flex, playing the 29th ranked rush. Foster prop, Texans ats & team total all look like solid wagers to me

Guys I think we should all think a little about this game if its not been on your radar yet.
The Texans despite Matt Scrubs woes have been playing decent football... they are pretty pissed down there right now.What better way to take your frustrations out than kicking the shit out of St Louis?
They had 10 days to prep for the Jags,Jags out yarded them,The Jags had 6.2yds Per play !! Turned the ball over 3 times.Wise has been highlighting Brafords woes...think this gets really really ugly sunday

Mo said:
This a very good thread. A lot of good thoughts. I'm going to work harder at this weekly shit; So I can give some decent input. I like this thread. Making me rethink a few plays I have.

Yes sir,yes it is. :cheers:

austinhous · Oct 12, 2013

2daBank said:
if they only had a different qb..but noodle arm dalton at buf with possible rain? i think if you think cincy scores that much you just lay the points imo cause that d isnt gonna give up a lot to a practice squad qb and a gimpy johnson, hell they might score as much as the offense..

Ain't nobody giving it up to a gimpy johnson you can bet on that or so I have heard.

nbafan88 · Oct 12, 2013

[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"] NFL - 10/13/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

203 Oakland Raiders
204 Kansas City Chiefs

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 50%
50%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 43%
57%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 70%
30%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-9.5-102
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-9.5+116
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-8-106
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-9-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-9
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 41
-9.5+117/+117
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-8-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-8
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-9.5+110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

205 Philadelphia Eagles
206 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 73%
27%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 70%
30%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 54%
46%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1.5
45.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-120
45.5o-108
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-115
45
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-115
45.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
45.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -1-119/+110
45.5o-104/+101
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-115
45
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+105
45.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-120
45.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

207 Green Bay Packers
208 Baltimore Ravens

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 63%
37%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 32%
68%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 79%
21%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3.5
47.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-128
49
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
48
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -1-123/+118
49
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3-105
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-120
49
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

209 Detroit Lions
210 Cleveland Browns

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 62%
38%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 65%
35%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 41%
59%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
45o-117
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-128
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-115
43.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5
43.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+105
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -1-124/+119
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-115
44.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-115
43.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-120
44
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

211 Carolina Panthers
212 Minnesota Vikings

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 30%
70%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 49%
51%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 62%
38%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 46.5
-2
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44o-109
-1-123
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44
-2
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44
-2-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44
-1.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 44o-106/+102
-1-122/-122
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44
-2.5-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44
-2
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44
-1-125
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

213 St. Louis Rams
214 Houston Texans

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 26%
74%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 57%
43%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 67%
33%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42u-107
-7.5+102
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42
-7.5+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42
-9+120
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42
-7-125
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 42u-104/+100
-7.5+101/+101
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42.5
-7.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42
-7.5-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42
-8.5+110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

215 Pittsburgh Steelers
216 New York Jets

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 47%
53%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 63%
37%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 65%
35%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2-109
40.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1+102
41u-108
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5
-1-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -1+103/-112
41u-105/+101
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-1
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 40.5
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 0-120
41
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

1:00 PM

217 Cincinnati Bengals
218 Buffalo Bills

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 64%
36%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 49%
51%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 48%
52%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7-115
45
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6-107
41.5u-107
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6
41.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6
41.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6
41.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -6-104/+100
41.5u-101/-103
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -6.5
41.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -5.5
41.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7+120
41.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

4:05 PM

219 Tennessee Titans
220 Seattle Seahawks

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 27%
73%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 34%
66%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 83%
17%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-13.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 40.5o-111
-13.5+102
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-12.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 40.5
-13.5-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 40.5
-13
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 40.5o-108/+100
-13.5+112/+112
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-13.5-120
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-13
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 40.5
-14+110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

4:05 PM

221 Jacksonville Jaguars
222 Denver Broncos

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 47%
53%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 86%
14%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 48
-27.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53o-107
-26-108
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-26.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-26.5-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-26
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 53o-104/+100
-26-103/-103
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-27.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-26.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-26
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

4:25 PM

223 Arizona Cardinals
224 San Francisco 49ers

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 44%
56%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 47%
53%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 57%
43%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42
-11.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41u-108
-10.5+106
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-10
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 40.5
-10-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-10.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 41u-105/+101
-10.5+107/+107
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5
-10.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-10.5-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 40.5
-11.5+115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

4:25 PM

225 New Orleans Saints
226 New England Patriots

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 78%
22%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50
-3+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50.5o-103
-1-123
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 49.5
-2.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50.5
-2
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50.5
-2
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 50.5u-102/+100
-1-118/-118
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 49.5
-2-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50
-2.5-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50.5
0-130
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/13

8:30 PM

227 Washington Redskins
228 Dallas Cowboys

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 31%
69%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 46%
54%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 76%
24%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 51
-3.5-111
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52o-108
-5.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52
-5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52
-5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52
-5.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 52o-105/+101
-5.5-101/-101
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-5.5-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52
-5.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: info"] [/TD]
[TD="class: team"] NFL - 10/14/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]

<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/14

8:40 PM

229 Indianapolis Colts
230 San Diego Chargers

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 78%
22%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 88%
12%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 46
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-108
50
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 50
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-115
50
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1
50
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -1-105/+101
50o-104/+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2
50
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1.5-105
50
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 0-120
50
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Toronto_Mike · Oct 12, 2013

nbafan88 said:
what is your point?

my point? I just saw -1.5 Jets that's it, why are you so touchy.
Fact is fact you pointed out -2 Steelers I only saw -1.5 Jets so move on

FootballNut · Oct 12, 2013

The closer to kickoff it gets the more I keep thinking how much I love the Bengals tomorrow. I think Cincy offense finally comes around against a poor Bills defense. Would think we see a lot more Gio in packages tomorrow and think AJ Green will be a focus of the offense tomorrow as he has been extremely frustrated for about the last month.

Not only that but Thad Lewis making his 2nd career start against what I consider one of the most underrated defenses in the whole league. Extremely aggressive front 4 that provides a great pass rush. Think the Bills will be in huge huge trouble tomorrow trying to move the ball on offense. Could see a Bengals 31-14 type game.

FootballNut · Oct 12, 2013

Does this not look really good for tomorrow. 3 team 10 point teaser. Seahawks -2.5, 49ers PK, Texans +3? Might be a little worried about the Texans but think they bounce back strong at home. If not them, then maybe the Chiefs at Arrowhead +2?

nbafan88 · Oct 12, 2013

[h=2]Defense vs. Wide Receivers Stats[/h] [TABLE="class: sortable"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH="align: center"] Def vs. WR’s [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] Opponent [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] RuYd [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] RuTD [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] Rec [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] RecYd [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] RecTD [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] Fum [/TH]
[TH="align: center"] FPPG [/TH]
[TH="class: sorttable_sorted_reverse, align: center"] Rank ▴[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody> [TR]
[TD] Philadelphia [/TD]
[TD] Tampa Bay [/TD]
[TD] -0.6 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 18.6 [/TD]
[TD] 241.4 [/TD]
[TD] 2.2 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 47.8 [/TD]
[TD] 32 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Buffalo [/TD]
[TD] Cincinnati [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 13.8 [/TD]
[TD] 223.6 [/TD]
[TD] 1.6 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 40.1 [/TD]
[TD] 31 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Denver [/TD]
[TD] Jacksonville [/TD]
[TD] 1.2 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 13.0 [/TD]
[TD] 225.2 [/TD]
[TD] 1.4 [/TD]
[TD] 0.2 [/TD]
[TD] 37.5 [/TD]
[TD] 30 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] San Diego [/TD]
[TD] Indianapolis [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 15.4 [/TD]
[TD] 214.8 [/TD]
[TD] 1.4 [/TD]
[TD] 0.2 [/TD]
[TD] 37.2 [/TD]
[TD] 29 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Washington [/TD]
[TD] Dallas [/TD]
[TD] 0.8 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 14.5 [/TD]
[TD] 222.8 [/TD]
[TD] 1.3 [/TD]
[TD] 0.5 [/TD]
[TD] 36.4 [/TD]
[TD] 28 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Atlanta [/TD]
[TD] BYE [/TD]
[TD] 1.6 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 14.0 [/TD]
[TD] 194.2 [/TD]
[TD] 1.4 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 35.0 [/TD]
[TD] 27 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Green Bay [/TD]
[TD] Baltimore [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 13.3 [/TD]
[TD] 190.0 [/TD]
[TD] 1.5 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 34.7 [/TD]
[TD] 26 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Minnesota [/TD]
[TD] Carolina [/TD]
[TD] 15.5 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 17.0 [/TD]
[TD] 201.3 [/TD]
[TD] 0.8 [/TD]
[TD] 0.3 [/TD]
[TD] 34.4 [/TD]
[TD] 25 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] St. Louis [/TD]
[TD] Houston [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 13.0 [/TD]
[TD] 185.8 [/TD]
[TD] 1.6 [/TD]
[TD] 0.2 [/TD]
[TD] 34.3 [/TD]
[TD] 24 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Oakland [/TD]
[TD] Kansas City [/TD]
[TD] -1.8 [/TD]
[TD] 0.0 [/TD]
[TD] 16.6 [/TD]
[TD] 203.4 [/TD]
[TD] 1.0 [/TD]
[TD] 0.2 [/TD]
[TD] 34.1 [/TD]
[TD] 23 [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

nbafan88 · Oct 13, 2013

nice writeup...

Jacksonville @ Denver

In the most lopsided game that will be played this season, the only genuine fantasy concern for Broncos skill-position players is a potentially enormous early-game lead that results in starters resting after a couple of quarters. Denver is a whopping 27-point favorite, setting records in Vegas. The Jags have allowed the second most touchdown passes (12) in football and are tied for 28th in sacks (10). Look for Peyton Manning to bang out first-half touchdown passes before taking a (roughly) third-quarter seat. ... Demaryius Thomas (5-57-0) is coming off the slowest game among Denver pass catchers, which if trends continue means he'll be Peyton's favorite option in Week 6. Keep riding Demaryius, who still leads the Broncos in targets on the season and ranks sixth among wideouts in fantasy scoring. ... Manning's target distribution: Demaryius 44, Eric Decker 43, Wes Welker 42, Julius Thomas 36, Knowshon Moreno 14, Ronnie Hillman 10, Montee Ball 4. ... Virtually every Broncos skill player is at least worth consideration as a Week 6 fantasy play, right on down to Ball if you're desperate in a flex spot. Ball has been Denver's primary garbage-time running back, and this game could produce a large chunk of garbage time.

Moreno was confirmed to be Denver's clear lead back in competitive scenarios during last week's 51-48 win at Dallas. He handled a season-high 24 touches and scored at the goal line from a yard out in the fourth quarter. Change-of-pace back Hillman finished with 11 touches, totaling 59 yards. Moreno is an every-week RB2/flex. ... Through five games, Decker is on pace for 93 receptions, 1,367 yards, and seven touchdowns. He's an every-week WR2. ... Welker is the No. 2 overall fantasy receiver behind only Dez Bryant, and leads the NFL in receiving scores (7). He's a WR1. ... Among tight ends, only Jimmy Graham has notched more fantasy points than Thomas, who is a red-zone machine. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.

Fantasy owners willing to gamble on Jaguars skill players in Week 6 are going to hang their hats on garbage-time yards and points. And there could be a lot where that came from. Chad Henne is most effective throwing the ball inside the numbers on slants and skinnies, which are typically tolerated by prevent-type defenses. The Jags will have to throw early and often to pretend they're keeping up with Manning, then keep throwing to limit the deficit. A legit candidate for 50 pass attempts, Henne has more upside this week than meets the eye. He's a gambling man's QB1 streamer and locked-in two-QB-league start. ... Slants, skinny posts, and seam patterns are Justin Blackmon's bread and butter. It's why Blackmon had so much more statistical success playing with Henne in the second half of last season. Coming off a 5-136-1 2013 debut, Blackmon is a very intriguing WR2/3 at Denver and worth a long look in FanDuel's daily leagues. ... Henne's target distribution on the season: Cecil Shorts 35, Ace Sanders and Stephen Burton 12, Maurice Jones -Drew 8, Clay Harbor 7, Allen Reisner and Jordan Todman 4, Blackmon 3. Keep in mind Henne has barely played with Blackmon this year, as he just came off suspension. On those three targets, they did hook up twice for 46 yards in last week's loss to St. Louis.

Certainly not to be forgotten, here are Shorts' nine career stat lines when Henne has been the Jags' primary quarterback in a given game: 8-93, 8-143, 4-79-1, 6-105-1, 3-81-1, 4-105-1, 7-77-1, 6-101, 6-54. Both Shorts and Blackmon are candidates to finish Sunday with double-digit targets. Shorts is every bit as start-able as a WR2/3. ... Sanders played 88% of the Jaguars' Week 5 offensive snaps, but was targeted just once and finished without a catch. Sanders has four drops among 28 targets this season, and has caught 14 passes for 162 scoreless yards. I suppose you could put him on the extreme deep-league radar this week because he's obviously going to be on the field a lot. ... Stranger things have happened than producing against virtually all odds, but on paper this is about the worst possible matchup a Jones-Drew owner could imagine. The Jags haven't used him much in pass-happy comeback mode, frequently installing Jordan Todman and Justin Forsett. The Broncos rank No. 1 against the run and allow just 3.28 yards per carry. It's not really talked about much, but MJD has for much of his career been an every-down back and this year has played only 58.5% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps. On pace for just 666 rushing yards at a 2.81 per-carry clip, Jones-Drew is a risky Week 6 flex play.

2daBank · Oct 13, 2013

gynecologist said:
hey AP will play out of his mind on Sunday right? Carolina is horrible on the road and Cassell is better than Ponder.

AP and the Vikings will play with extra motivation, correct?

AP is going against a really good front 7, i bet panthers well before that awful shit happened and im not gonna go back and change my thought process as who knows how it impact him? he could just as easily fumble 4 times,, but again i didnt like his chances against panthers front before this so not changing on that now.. cassel/ponder? i dunno, they both garbage proven by the fact they gave josh freemon 3 mil to come it, and what is even worse is minny defense,, i rate panthers so much better than this team, although Scam has a habit of proving me wrong i think min the kind of team this clown generally feast on...

BetCrimes1984 · Oct 13, 2013

The Jags have allowed the second most touchdown passes (12) in football and are tied for 28th in sacks (10).

However unlikely, if Peyton pulls off 5 TD passes in the 1st half then I fail to see him not sticking round to go for 8. If ever it was on, surely it's here.

emkee · Oct 13, 2013

Since 2003, Brady is 14-3 ATS off a loss when a dog or fave of 7 or less...

bones · Oct 13, 2013

emkee said:
Since 2003, Brady is 14-3 ATS off a loss when a dog or fave of 7 or less...

if this holds today, then OVER is also a reasonable wager.
Would most of us agree Saints score 24 points or more? For Pats to cover they get 27

austinhous · Oct 13, 2013

emkee said:
Since 2003, Brady is 14-3 ATS off a loss when a dog or fave of 7 or less...

Using the same criteria I got 17-2 SU and ATS. With 6-0 to the over in games they were dogged, and 7-5-1 to the under when they were the favorite.

Marlo · Oct 13, 2013

Excellent thread guys. Great job by everyone.

austinhous · Oct 13, 2013

I also found the Pats are 0-5 ATS their last five home games after a SU loss.

emkee · Oct 13, 2013

Seems like the 'public' gets some this week. Vegas has had the better side of the ledger in Week's 1-5...

spanishshark · Oct 13, 2013

austinhous said:
I also found the Pats are 0-5 ATS their last five home games after a SU loss.

What were the spreads? This one is only 1.5 points

BiffTFinancial · Oct 13, 2013

Lexington 125 said:
Starting to warm up to a Packers/Ravens over. Baltimore has faced one elite qb this season, and Peyton threw 7 tds. No Clay and GBs pass d is sketchy anyway- both GB road games got into the 60's. Even if the Ravens decide they want to pound the run, this game could get into the mid 50's... have a tough time seeing either team getting held under 23 points. Anyone have thoughts?

In non-conference games, Pack and Ravens are collectively 7-2 over since beginning of 2012 season, 13-4 over since beginning of 2011.

C-MAN · Oct 13, 2013

Seeing a lot of love for Hou. I would be careful with the Texans injury list piling up. Daniels out is big for their offense and Johnson, Foster, Tate all a bit gimpy. This is a big game for both teams and Fisher has some familiarity with this Hou team. Think we see max effort on both sides. If it comes down to special teams, advantage StL.

Toronto_Mike · Oct 13, 2013

emkee said:
Since 2003, Brady is 14-3 ATS off a loss when a dog or fave of 7 or less...

curious as those teams past were definitely stronger than this crop. Books adjust to the current team or to this trend you think?

nbafan88 · Oct 13, 2013

[TABLE="class: main"]
<thead>[TR]
[TH="colspan: 5"]Game[/TH]
[TH]Time (EST)[/TH]
[TH]TV[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3"]Game Day Weather Forecast[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead> <tbody> [TR]
[TD="class: small"]Giants[/TD]
[TD="class: small"]