Week 6 discussion

CrazyBetter said:
I like the steelers, especially getting a FG against the jets, Steelers are way better than their record shows and the only way I see the jets winning is if they don't commit any turnovers and I don't see that happening. Jets are on a short week, steelers coming off a bye week will have a pretty healthy team(the best so far this season).

Jets are already looking towards their week 7 rematch vs the Pats, steelers veterans will give it their all this game.
Click to expand...
Fair enough CB,its not a great spot for the jets...But I just saw this Pitt team (another must win situ) make Matt Cassel look like Peyton and the O line is so bad..against a good jets D line....I think it gets ugly

GL :shake:
 
Played the Raiders +10.....anti homer play....Oakland always plays us tough at KC....scrambling QB is what we can struggle with and our offense has obviously not looked great. Should be a
17-13 game just hope KC gets the W. Janikowski always good for a couple 50 + at Arrowhead. I'd love to see his career stats kicking in KC.



I like SD teased.....GB/Balt over 48.....
 
Steelers make a lot of sense. Great spot. Geno, like any rookie is bound to be wildly inconsistent from week to week as the last two games have shown.

I'm not sure what the best option is between Moneyline, spread or tease.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
Steelers -2? It's now -1.5 Jets lol
Click to expand...

It's even up to NYJ -2.5 now at most places. I think he may have meant the line of -2 for Pit as an opener was a "really strong" opinion set by the linesmakers there. I may be way off, but that's how I took it.
 
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LeBeau eats rookie QB's. Old dude is 17-2 SU against them.

Steez a lean for sure...
 
Jets have (the Falcons/Titans road outings aside) a D + LeBeau eats rookie QBs for brekky = sounds like an Under. Sub-20s both teams.
 
SU, ATS and Totals through Week's 1-5...

Home Teams 48-28 SU (44-30-2 ATS)

Favorites 49-26 SU (37-36-2 ATS)

Home Dogs 12-14 SU (16-10 ATS)

DD dogs 2-8 SU (6-4 ATS)

Overs v Unders 40-37
 
emkee said:
LeBeau eats rookie QB's. Old dude is 17-2 SU against them.

Steez a lean for sure...
Click to expand...
Them steelers defences were good tho,this team is shit.They just made Cassel look like a HOF QB.
You cant polish a turd.

I saw this film a few weeks ago when people were saying the Giants cant go 0-4,bad teams lose.

I know the sharp side is the Steelers,but Im betting the jets...the jets were better than than the steelers before MNF


Anyone please tell me one actually positive for putting money down on the Steelers bar past statistics ? Help save me some money by not going overboard on nyj
 
will take a look at the Jags team total over and game 1st half over. Blackmon and shorts are legit receivers. while Henne will throw for 4 picks, he can chuck the ball and Denver's defense is still average at best. My guess for Jags tt is about 18....
 
starting to really worry about megatron playing this week. got detroit -2.5, may have to get off it
 
Throw out everything from the past seasons about the Giants. What do we have this year? A team who cannot protect the QB and a huge pass rush that is lacking on defense. My point being, Chicago is the better team here hands down.. this year. I dont see anything keeping the Bears from winning this game by DD
 
only 2 ive played thus far..like several unders but god damn it scary playing under 41 in the nfl these days, 1st week in a while isnt a over i love..

panthers ml +122 ..not sure if any team has fukked me more than these clowns so of coarse this where i start, didnt bet them last week and hit the under but man i wanted to, luckily i didnt cause Scam newton turned the ball over every time they had a chance to score..

with that out of the way this is a choice matchup for the panthers, they have one of the best front 7s in fb and are among the best run stuffing teams in the league only allowing 3.6 ypc. i do not believe that ap can beat this team on his own and sorry if im not buying cassel as the answer at qb (neither is minny clearly since they saw fit to give freemon 3 mil to finish the season)..unlike the ball hawking studs zona has in the secondary minny pass defense has been atrocious from the pass rush being among the worst in the league to a back end that gets beaten like a redheaded stepchild on a reg basis. this the kind of team that Scam will feast on, this idiot should be throwing tds all over the place. giving his superman bs pose like he isnt the qb of a losing team and just having a good ol time..maybe im a sucker and just have panthers rated too highly but fact remains i like a team with a good front 7 and theirs is really good, the offense should be better than what it is and this the kind of team id imagine they bust out on a little bit..in the end i cant get off this team and getting + money against a team i rate as one of the worst in the league ill bite, but i swear this be the last time if scam gets me again... 24-16 panthers

browns ml +115...grabbing this now as megatron news becomes widely spread he really hurting,, bottom line is i dont care if his gimpy ass plays or not cause brownies have one of the best shut down corners in the league and haden could limit a healthy johnson imo.. y'all know how i feel about det as favs on the road and here we go again i get plus money to fade these overrated clowns who play much much better in a dome on a fast track,, give me cle front 7 to limit bush and the run gm, give me haden taking megatron out of gm (if he even in it). then give me gorden who ya know i luv to go deep on det suspect ass corners and mcghee to chew up yardage and clock against a det team that allows 5.3 freaking ypc! enough of that and you better believe stafford will get anxious and make some mistakes...quite frankly no matter the qb i feel like im getting the better healthier team at home against a shit road team and i get plus money.. yes please...
 
I have put a lot of thought into this NO/NE game, I talked to an old friend on the phone earlier today and he was telling me he liked the Saints but he thinks
they are due to throw a clunker. I told him, that might be true but I don't think so. I think the Saints are pissed about last season and won't take any game lightly. Also they want and pretty much need HFA in the playoffs, so I don't see how they don't get up for the Pats, maybe another team but not the Pats!!!


Saints have the better Off, QB play, WRs, TE, DL.. I think the Pats have the better LBs and secondary but everything else I'd take the Saints.

Also the Pats will be without one of the best DT in all of football with Wilfork, that is a HUGE loss for them. Brees will have more time to pass than usual.

I've watched a lot of Pats football this season, they aren't that good.

Life or death and very lucky to beat Buffalo in game 1 23-21
Life or death and very lucky to beat Jets in game 2 13-10
Beat a dysfunctional TB team 23-3, that win is not that impressive considering TBs problems
Beat a Falcons team by 7, Falcons are 1-4 and they've been very unimpressive.
Lost to Cincy and only scored 6 points..

Brady has been very average this season.


If the Saints avoid turning the ball over they win.
 
im really interested in seeing how pats deal with ryans d? no one has solved it as of yet but think this the best offensive line saints have played. certainly will give you pats been out of sink and missing weapons (hell ive faded them 2 weeks in a row and several other gms), not sure how much of a factor gronk will be? all that aside i think it a lot more of a chess match between brady and the guys up front vs a d that been confusing the hell out of teams, if they can solve protections and push the pace to keep them in more of a base look i also think this saints d can be run on and pats should succeed in that...i agree losing wilfork was a terrible loss for them and not sure how well they contain brees and co.? just way more curious on the other side of ball with pats vs this d as it not like saints d turned into the most talented group overnight, they doing a ton with schemes that masking things a bit i believe...
 
gynecologist said:
Saints have the better Off, QB play, WRs, TE, DL.. I think the Pats have the better LBs and secondary but everything else I'd take the Saints.

Also the Pats will be without one of the best DT in all of football with Wilfork, that is a HUGE loss for them. Brees will have more time to pass than usual.

I've watched a lot of Pats football this season, they aren't that good.

Brady has been very average this season.

If the Saints avoid turning the ball over they win.
Click to expand...


I would take Brady over Brees every day of the week- imagine Brady with the weapons Brees has. NE front 7 blows the doors off of NOs but they have been very average vs the run. Wilfork injury is big, but the Saints just aren't a good run team. Brady made some huge throws in the Bills game, and what I see is wrs not making the plays for Brady. You don't think that Gronk returning, even at 70%, won't open up lanes for the run? I think thie Pats offense will look way different on Sunday, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Pats pound the run. Ridley is a ? mark but he's been at practice... think he could be a key factor.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I would take Brady over Brees every day of the week- imagine Brady with the weapons Brees has. NE front 7 blows the doors off of NOs but they have been very average vs the run. Wilfork injury is big, but the Saints just aren't a good run team. Brady made some huge throws in the Bills game, and what I see is wrs not making the plays for Brady. You don't think that Gronk returning, even at 70%, won't open up lanes for the run? I think thie Pats offense will look way different on Sunday, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Pats pound the run. Ridley is a ? mark but he's been at practice... think he could be a key factor.
Click to expand...

i tend to agree but just heard gronk still wasnt cleared and is becoming more of a game time decision again..
 
Buying low on the Texans in some fashion sunday. Texans off 3 straight losses with the Rams off a blowout home win vs the Jags. Let's not forget the Texans lost to 3 potentially playoff bound teams, Rams are not in that category. I have visions of Watt all over Bradford from the jump. Texans team total will be 24.5, but it is more than justified even with the way Shaub had played.

Rams allowed

24 vs Zona
31 @Atl
31@Dal
35 vs SF
20 vs Jax


Finally a game where Foster can flex, playing the 29th ranked rush. Foster prop, Texans ats & team total all look like solid wagers to me
 
hou is my favorite teaser leg no doubt, if kubiak would promise me they wouldnt throw a pass id lay the points cause you right foster and tate should hit 200+ combined, def like any foster prop...def a gm where a decent but struggling team comes home and kicks the crap out of my downtrodden lambs..
 
2daBank said:
i tend to agree but just heard gronk still wasnt cleared and is becoming more of a game time decision again..
Click to expand...

tommy Kelly hasnt practiced either,, so thats your 2 big men in the middle - wilfork and Kelly...
 
TheCashMan said:
tommy Kelly hasnt practiced either,, so thats your 2 big men in the middle - wilfork and Kelly...
Click to expand...

they beat the hell up for sure...biggest reason gm interest me is wanna see if pats can handle the defensive schemes saints been bringing at ppl... really tho if there a way to go teasing saints over a td seems safe regardless..
 
2daBank said:
they beat the hell up for sure...biggest reason gm interest me is wanna see if pats can handle the defensive schemes saints been bringing at ppl... really tho if there a way to go teasing saints over a td seems safe regardless..
Click to expand...

Veteran DT Tommy Kelly not present at practice for third day in a row, putting his status for Sunday in doubt.

Gives a lot of space for Brees to see the field...

i don't think Gronk suits up either.


 
Lexington 125 said:
I would take Brady over Brees every day of the week- imagine Brady with the weapons Brees has. NE front 7 blows the doors off of NOs but they have been very average vs the run. Wilfork injury is big, but the Saints just aren't a good run team. Brady made some huge throws in the Bills game, and what I see is wrs not making the plays for Brady. You don't think that Gronk returning, even at 70%, won't open up lanes for the run? I think thie Pats offense will look way different on Sunday, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Pats pound the run. Ridley is a ? mark but he's been at practice... think he could be a key factor.
Click to expand...


brady

56% comp 7 TD 1211 yds

brees
69% comp 12 TDs 1722 yds
 
gynecologist said:
brady

56% comp 7 TD 1211 yds

brees
69% comp 12 TDs 1722 yds
Click to expand...

Again look at the offense around Brees. I didn't say I would take Brady's passing options- to me those numbers aren't indicative of the qbs overall talent. Don't get me wrong, I think Brees is great and is having a crazy season, but I think Brady is top 3 I have ever seen. I'll take the home team off a loss where the offense played terrible. Saints on b2b road games and if they get the win I'll tip my cap to them. I'm wagering that they don't. Looking more and more like Gronk won't suit up, but the situation and perception is enough for me to make a play
 
Bills/Cincy could go either way total wise, but I don't think I can endorse an over wager. Byrd making his season debut, the deep pass will at the very least be slowed. Dalton gets sloppy and the Bills have the playmakers to make him pay. I wouldn't expect the game plan to include Thad slinging it downfield too often. Leon Hall seems as if he will be returning for Cincy, and Stevie J hasn't practiced yet and had a death in the family. Even with him in don't be surprised to see the Bills run 70% of the time. There will be drive stalls and the clock will likely be running. Could be a field position type battle here, Bills finally wised up and got a decent punter back onto the team. Bengals have a nice defensive front, but GB was able to run on them. We will see how they fare vs the #3 rushing offense in the game, that hasn't even played to their full potential yet. Still think the Bills tt is an over or no play, likely to be lined at 17 juiced. I think I would have to wait to be sure steve is active first though. So leaning Bengals tt under/Bills tt over but there is not much wiggle room. May very well be grabbing the points over the total play, already on the ML
 
I think Bengals TT over is a decent play.. Buffalo always gives up 21+ and Cincy offense has been playing good defenses, now they will see a shit defense..

I think Cincy scores 28+
 
gynecologist said:
Cincy offense has been playing good defenses, now they will see a shit defense..
Click to expand...


23, 23 & 20 are the points allowed by the Bills at home. Line will be at the lowest 24 juiced. Now Buffalo getting at the very least their best player in the secondary back. The shit defense could look very good at home vs a team that put up 6 last time on the road. Kiko has 3 ints and a ff @home, Mario & Dareus seem to play much better at home and will pressure Dalton.
 
Starting to warm up to a Packers/Ravens over. Baltimore has faced one elite qb this season, and Peyton threw 7 tds. No Clay and GBs pass d is sketchy anyway- both GB road games got into the 60's. Even if the Ravens decide they want to pound the run, this game could get into the mid 50's... have a tough time seeing either team getting held under 23 points. Anyone have thoughts?
 
Lexington 125 said:
Starting to warm up to a Packers/Ravens over. Baltimore has faced one elite qb this season, and Peyton threw 7 tds. No Clay and GBs pass d is sketchy anyway- both GB road games got into the 60's. Even if the Ravens decide they want to pound the run, this game could get into the mid 50's... have a tough time seeing either team getting held under 23 points. Anyone have thoughts?
Click to expand...

I like it a lot.
 
gynecologist said:
I think Bengals TT over is a decent play.. Buffalo always gives up 21+ and Cincy offense has been playing good defenses, now they will see a shit defense..

I think Cincy scores 28+
Click to expand...

if they only had a different qb..but noodle arm dalton at buf with possible rain? i think if you think cincy scores that much you just lay the points imo cause that d isnt gonna give up a lot to a practice squad qb and a gimpy johnson, hell they might score as much as the offense..
 
Rj Bell:

Raiders @ Chiefs (-8.5) -- 1 p.m.

Alex Smith last 31 games as a starter: 25-5-1 SU

Favorite in Raiders games: 10-3 ATS last 13

Oakland/KC: Underdog has covered 8 straight in series.

Raiders: 18-4 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent

KC: Lost 11 straight ATS when favored within the division

Chiefs have covered only 1 of last 14 hosting Raiders

Teams have scored TDs only 25% of the time when reaching the Red Zone vs. KC
(making KC the best in the NFL; such extreme results tend to even out over long run)

Oakland:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 28 games (since start of last season)
Eagles @ Buccaneers (+1.5) -- 1 p.m.

Bucs have lost 9 straight games when opponent has not rested starters.

Bucs: Last 40 home games, never once covered the spread two straight times!

Bucs 4-16 ATS as a home underdog

Eagles: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game

Eagles have yielded 32 points per game the last 15 games

NFL scoring: #32) Jax 10.2 ppg; #31) TB 11.0 ppg (30[SUP]th[/SUP] team scoring over 17 ppg)

Bucs: Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS last 20 seasons

Winless teams (0-3 or worse) off bye: 27-10-1 ATS

Packers @ Ravens (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Flacco at home: 37-7 SU (23-21 ATS)

Only 3[SUP] [/SUP]prior times Ravens home underdogs in the last 4 seasons.
Only 12 prior times (since 1980) that the defending Super Bowl champs are home underdogs.
Only home game for Ravens in 5 weeks.

Baltimore: 28[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked offense (YPP)
Packers lost 4 straight on road

Home team in Packers game has covered 11 of 12 games

Packers have given up the least rushing yards in the NFL
Packers are gaining the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] most yards per rush attempt in the NFL

Mike McCarthy only coach in NFL with more than 60 games coached who is over 60% ATS
Lions @ Browns (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 21-37-2 (36%)
Lions – a dome team - have covered only 2 of last 11 on GRASS.

Lions 3-15 ATS as a road favorite

Lions: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in 5 weeks

Browns: #1 D in NFL (YPP)

Calvin Johnson status?

Spread in this game before last week’s games: Detroit -1.5
Panthers @ Vikings (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.

Cam Newton 2-14 SU in one score games.

Ron Rivera, in three seasons, has started seasons 1-5 and 1-6 and now 1-3

Vikings giving up over 30 points per game

Panthers: Road dog off road loss: 64% since 2003

Rams @ Texans (-7.5) -- 1 p.m.
Jeff Fisher is 86-56 ATS (61%) in his coaching career as an underdog.

Texans lost by 30+ last week. Next week big losers are 57% ATS (since 1990)

Texans lost 7 straight regular season games ATS

Texans have outgained opponents by 653 yards on the season (no other NFL team better than +380)

Rams were outgained by Jacksonville last week

Net Yards Per Play:
#32: Jags -1.7
#31: Rams -1.5
#30: Bucs -.6

Steelers @ Jets (-2) -- 1 p.m.

Jets are 51-84 ATS as a home favorite

Favorite has covered only 3 out of last 13 Steelers games

Pitt: Have not forced a single turnover this season

Jets: Tied for the best “net yards per play” in NFL

Steelers: 58 yards per game rush (worst in NFL)

Steelers not complacent – making numerous roster moves

Steelers: Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS last 20 seasons

Winless teams (0-3 or worse) off bye: 27-10-1 ATS

Before Jets MNF win (remember, Pitt is off bye) . . . Steelers favored by 2 points
Bengals @ Bills (+7) -- 1 p.m.

Bengals: 10-3 overall ATS run

Bengals 11-4-3 ATS on the road

Only 2 teams have scored TDs a higher percentage of time than Cincy when in the Red Zone
(percentages that over-perform the general quality of the offense tends to even out in the long run)

Bills last 30 games: lost against the spread by a NET 146 points.

Titans @ Seahawks (-13.5) -- 4:05 p.m.

Seattle: 15-4 ATS overall last 19

Seattle 13-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

Seattle:
(starting in 2005): 70% ATS at home (49-21-1)
On road during same period: 39% (28-44-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 93-49-2 (66% winners)

And Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 4 of 17 ATS

Jaguars @ Broncos (-27) -- 4:05 p.m.

Biggest favorite in recorded point spread history.

8 NFL teams have been favored by at least 21-points since 1972.
7 did NOT cover the spread.

Underdogs +17 or more: 20-7 ATS (from 1992 onward)

Denver has won 16 straight regular season games (13-3 ATS)

Denver 38% ATS at home (23-37) since 2006

Jags: Road dog off road loss: 64% since 2003

Jags: Winless teams (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS last 20 seasons

31% chance (based on betting odds) Peyton Manning will NOT play past the midway point of the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] Quarter vs. Jacksonville

Denver: scoring 16 points per game more than any other NFL team.

Only one defense worse than Denver (YPP)

Denver plays AT Indy next week
Cardinals @ 49ers (-10.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

49ers at home under Harbaugh are 17-5-1 ATS

Cards covered only 42% on road since 2002 (38-53-2)
Saints @ Patriots (-2.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

New England has won 32 of 35 regular season home games (SU).

Belichick covered 23 of 32 ATS off a straight-up loss

Saints have covered 12 of 13 regular season games under Payton

Saints ranked 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in Red Zone scoring percentage
(a good offense would be expected to do better over the long run)

Pats: 25[SUP]th[/SUP] best offense (YPP)

Saints:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 28 games since start of last season

Redskins @ Cowboys (-5.5) -- 8:30 p.m.

Cowboys have covered only 5 of 21 games as a home favorite

Last 4 seasons: the underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games (38-15 ATS)

Shanahan has never lost ATS (6-0) to Jason Garrett

Cowboys: Only 3 teams with a better offense (YPP); Only 4 teams with a worst offense

Bye could help RG3’s health

Cowboys 16-31 ATS within division
MNF: Colts @ Chargers (+1.5) -- 8:40 p.m.

Since 2001, Monday Night Home underdogs: 27-42 ATS (39%)

Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 3-17 ATS

SD: Worse D in the NFL (YPP)

Before last week’s games: Chargers favored by 2.5 in this game
 
Week 6 Trends from Dr. Bob
Don’t be surprised if winless teams Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay break through with a victory this week after having last week off. Teams that are reeling tend to play well following their bye week and that makes sense to me. Teams on a losing streak can’t lose when they aren’t playing and that week off without adding another loss is emotionally healing to such teams. It’s sort of like stopping the bleeding of a wound before allowing it to heal. The extra week off is good for the mental state of a struggling team because it allows them to gain perspective and refocus on the task of playing better football rather than feeling sorry for themselves.
Winless teams that are 0-4 or worse are 23-7 ATS and 17-13 straight up following their bye week.
Teams that lost 3 or more consecutive games before their bye week are 51-29 ATS as an underdog of pick after their bye week.
Both of those angles apply to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay this week.

Houston was a Super Bowl favorite before the season started but after winning 2 straight games the Texans have lost 3 straight, including an embarrassing 3-34 loss at San Francisco in front of a national television audience. However, now is not the time to doubt Houston, as decent teams that play that poorly tend to bounce back the next week.
Teams with a win percentage of .333 or higher that lost to the spread by 25 points or more the previous week are 87-38-3 ATS since 2001, including San Francisco’s 35-11 win at St. Louis the week after the Niners lost by 20 points as a 10 point favorite to the Colts. Houston gets their shot at getting back on track against that same Rams team and I think they’ll do so with an easy win (my math model also really likes Houston).
Play on Houston.
 
TAMPA, Fla. -- A third Tampa Bay Buccaneers player has been diagnosed with an MRSA infection, and the team brought in an infectious disease specialist to address concerns Friday.


Dr. Deverick J. Anderson, co-director of Duke Infection Control Outreach Network, met with players as the start of practice was delayed about 90 minutes. After that, Anderson met with staff members.


Anderson said the Buccaneers, who host the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, have handled the situation as well as possible.
 
2daBank said:
if they only had a different qb..but noodle arm dalton at buf with possible rain? i think if you think cincy scores that much you just lay the points imo cause that d isnt gonna give up a lot to a practice squad qb and a gimpy johnson, hell they might score as much as the offense..
Click to expand...


yes, definitely have to wait on the weather.
 
hey AP will play out of his mind on Sunday right? Carolina is horrible on the road and Cassell is better than Ponder.

AP and the Vikings will play with extra motivation, correct?
 
aplous said:
Played the Raiders +10.....anti homer play....Oakland always plays us tough at KC....scrambling QB is what we can struggle with and our offense has obviously not looked great. Should be a
17-13 game just hope KC gets the W. Janikowski always good for a couple 50 + at Arrowhead. I'd love to see his career stats kicking in KC.



I like SD teased.....GB/Balt over 48.....
Click to expand...
oak has won six in a row SU at kc...that's astonishing considering how bad oak has been during that stretch...
 
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