Week 6 DFS/Props Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Just getting the thread started.

mcculran said:
Love this kinda shit….def moreso than plinko spread results. Got a question for you (and @2daBank) ……When you are making DK lineups, do you always do mini game stacks within each then fill out the rest with other guys you like from other games? I always find myself, when multi-entering, getting over-exposed to certain guys due to falling in a common price range. End up saying…well i don’t have marvin jones with the tb/mia stack so stick him in. Then i dont have marvin jones with the dak stack. How would you recommend combatting this? Any build thoughts appreciated…
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Also @mcculran, on post #2 of my week 3 or 4 thread (I believe) I discuss GPP positive leverage lineups.....the top 10/.1%/etc, lineup construction that are ahead of the field.

I will look into more recent numbers, they should change to which were best, but maybe the order.

#1 QB/RB/WR + WR
#2 QB/RB/WR
#3 QB/WR + WR
#4 QB/WR

Starting out a GPP lineup with this kind of base is how I start.

I try to limit the qbs I want exposure too, so I don't spread myself super thin. I'd rather take a stand with 3/4, maybe 5 guys MAX, that way I can vary those lineups more. So if the base hits, I have a ton of variability to have 1/2 explode.

I think when you fall in a common price range, you need to ask yourself... does this selection far and away blow out the rest of the area? (like curtis samuel 3k 2 weeks ago, nobody had his upside at that price ----- or cordarelle patterson 2 weeks ago as well, I forget the price). When you get that answer I then like to consider what are the other possible options in that area... are most being seeing this range and instantly going person A. If person B has scenario/scripts that show he actually can have a higehr ceiling, at a massively lower ownership, he needs to be considered.

There's a lot of times where you want to pay up in certain positions given the week, and you can't get there. I'd recommend going to your base, and chopping the WR1 you probably selected, to his WR2/3..... see godwin last week, while he did well... AB (and evans) outperformed him by a mile with the bonus/+2 tds, and he was much cheaper, and could allow you to go up at another position.

Feel like I'm rambling and hope some of that makes sense... not on desktop, but more than willing to have more convo's on it
 
Of the top 10 lineups in the milly maker through weeks 1-5 (so 50 lineups total) - Team Stack = players from same team. Game Stack = players from the same game (atleast 1 from each team).

2 Team Stack - 11 lineups
3 Team Stack - 9 lineups
3 Game Stack - 13 lineups
4 Game Stack - 12 Lineups
0 Stack - 5 lineups

45 of the 50 lineups had same form of team/game stack

of the top 50 lineups

16 used RBs in their flex
30 used WRs in their flex
4 used TEs in their flex.

WR's just have higher ceilings when it comes to DK scoring, and is definitely the optimal route, also it's easier to find price/$ on them. When you get cheap rb's coming in due to injury, it could lead to more, but I think it just allows you to slot them in the RB1/2 spot, and payup for an even better WR for flex.

Of course, never put a TE in flex.
 
Currently through 5 weeks, RB's are the least likely players to "bust" when looking at the top ownership players. Ie. They're the numbers you should trust/not try to gain leverage from --- probably blame Henry for that ;), but also the value spots that smash, because they're cheap and thrown into RB1 duties (see mattison the first week cook was out - although I don't remember his ownership).

What has so far changed this year is the top owned QBs (and therefore WRs --- as most people pair the 2, so if the one fails, typically the other does) have bused higher than the past year or two. I believe scoring as a whole is down, and penalties are up (maybe the fans, right??) so that's limited this.... so don't be afraid to go a bit off the cuff if you'd like, and not continue to go kyler murray/etc.
 
TE has been hard. Pitts I know busted Week1, Kelce busted Week 4, everyone rode hock after his start, and has been ttrash. I've been struggling there too.
 
ScopeY said:
Just getting the thread started.



Also @mcculran, on post #2 of my week 3 or 4 thread (I believe) I discuss GPP positive leverage lineups.....the top 10/.1%/etc, lineup construction that are ahead of the field.

I will look into more recent numbers, they should change to which were best, but maybe the order.

#1 QB/RB/WR + WR
#2 QB/RB/WR
#3 QB/WR + WR
#4 QB/WR

Starting out a GPP lineup with this kind of base is how I start.

I try to limit the qbs I want exposure too, so I don't spread myself super thin. I'd rather take a stand with 3/4, maybe 5 guys MAX, that way I can vary those lineups more. So if the base hits, I have a ton of variability to have 1/2 explode.

I think when you fall in a common price range, you need to ask yourself... does this selection far and away blow out the rest of the area? (like curtis samuel 3k 2 weeks ago, nobody had his upside at that price ----- or cordarelle patterson 2 weeks ago as well, I forget the price). When you get that answer I then like to consider what are the other possible options in that area... are most being seeing this range and instantly going person A. If person B has scenario/scripts that show he actually can have a higehr ceiling, at a massively lower ownership, he needs to be considered.

There's a lot of times where you want to pay up in certain positions given the week, and you can't get there. I'd recommend going to your base, and chopping the WR1 you probably selected, to his WR2/3..... see godwin last week, while he did well... AB (and evans) outperformed him by a mile with the bonus/+2 tds, and he was much cheaper, and could allow you to go up at another position.

Feel like I'm rambling and hope some of that makes sense... not on desktop, but more than willing to have more convo's on it
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Makes a ton of sense and i appreciate your thoughts. I have done pretty well with golf dfs, using the same sort of leverage spots. In golf, in particular, the less I like the lineup (or the dirtier it feels) the better it does. Gotta make some uncomfortable cuts and plays if you wanna win, for sure. I just have to do a better job at differentiating ceiling vs floor and using them properly. Been kinda treading water recently, but feel like i’m close. As always, greatly enjoy reading your writeups every week. Thanks for doing this!
 
I’ll try to get into how I structure dfs lineups later on. For most part I only play single entry tourneys tho, just feel like only way I have a fighting chance as I have no interest going up against computer model guys who have the money invested to do 100 variations on lineups! lol
 
I was thinking I wanted hurts over passing yards tonight but that number little higher than I expected so passing. Lean to Brady under 304.5 but scary.

Only 1 I’ve played so far is gio over 12.5 receiving yards, that seems redic low. I’d think Brady looks to get ball out quick and expect gio gets more involved as he gets healthier. Ovsr 1.5 receptions should cash also but too much juice at -167,

Havnt played ertz over anything yet but did use him in few lineups as he super cheap. Bucs d all banged up and hasn’t been great defending te’s or any aspect of passing games. Im assuming Goedert is out since he had a positive test the other day, I’d think that leads to Ertz approaching dd targets.
 
ScopeY said:
Of the top 10 lineups in the milly maker through weeks 1-5 (so 50 lineups total) - Team Stack = players from same team. Game Stack = players from the same game (atleast 1 from each team).

2 Team Stack - 11 lineups
3 Team Stack - 9 lineups
3 Game Stack - 13 lineups
4 Game Stack - 12 Lineups
0 Stack - 5 lineups

45 of the 50 lineups had same form of team/game stack

of the top 50 lineups

16 used RBs in their flex
30 used WRs in their flex
4 used TEs in their flex.

WR's just have higher ceilings when it comes to DK scoring, and is definitely the optimal route, also it's easier to find price/$ on them. When you get cheap rb's coming in due to injury, it could lead to more, but I think it just allows you to slot them in the RB1/2 spot, and payup for an even better WR for flex.

Of course, never put a TE in flex.
Click to expand...

I tend to mostly use wr unless some random week I really like some cheap rbs. I almost never pay top dollar for wrs cause as you mentioned you can get tons of cheaper options who have just as good a chance to put up numbers, last week I used a ton of chase at less than 6k and ton of toney for nyg who had a monster game and was only 4k! It was a damn shame I whiffed so hard on qb last week! Lol.
 
I love swift for lions this week. As mentioned last week bungals do not defend rbs in the passing game very well, unlike last week shouldn’t have to worry bout swifts targets going elsewhere (dillan had pretty big day in passing game, Jones had 4 catches but for no yards!), swift shares snaps with Williams but you know he gonna get his targets as Goff checks down a ton! He has had no fewer than 5 targets in a game and as many as 11, 6 the last 2 weeks. Don’t see props for him yet but assume I’ll be looking at over receptions and yards.
 
2daBank said:
I tend to mostly use wr unless some random week I really like some cheap rbs. I almost never pay top dollar for wrs cause as you mentioned you can get tons of cheaper options who have just as good a chance to put up numbers, last week I used a ton of chase at less than 6k and ton of toney for nyg who had a monster game and was only 4k! It was a damn shame I whiffed so hard on qb last week! Lol.
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and in AB who was in the 5K range
 
2daBank said:
I’ll try to get into how I structure dfs lineups later on. For most part I only play single entry tourneys tho, just feel like only way I have a fighting chance as I have no interest going up against computer model guys who have the money invested to do 100 variations on lineups! lol
Click to expand...
I tell everyone the 3$ 20 entry max is cheap, allows you to get your feet wet in roster construction, and nobody's putting in more lineups than you! Also the prize is nice
 
mcculran said:
Makes a ton of sense and i appreciate your thoughts. I have done pretty well with golf dfs, using the same sort of leverage spots. In golf, in particular, the less I like the lineup (or the dirtier it feels) the better it does. Gotta make some uncomfortable cuts and plays if you wanna win, for sure. I just have to do a better job at differentiating ceiling vs floor and using them properly. Been kinda treading water recently, but feel like i’m close. As always, greatly enjoy reading your writeups every week. Thanks for doing this!
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Just don't forget about me when you win the milly ! Thanks ;)

I usually do the majors in golf, but football takes most of my spare time at the moment, unfortunately.... or fortunately..
 
ScopeY said:
I tell everyone the 3$ 20 entry max is cheap, allows you to get your feet wet in roster construction, and nobody's putting in more lineups than you! Also the prize is nice
Click to expand...

Yep. That one of few I play that multiple entry. I usually play damn near every single to 3 entry max I see in the $1-$12 range throughout the week. I don’t worry so much about total number of players, actually like the bigger ones, just don’t wanna be in the ones where I’m competing w ppl doing 100s of lineups like you get into when chasing the 1mil. I got sucked into that years ago and gave away a ton of winnings I had previously, lol.
 
mcculran said:
Makes a ton of sense and i appreciate your thoughts. I have done pretty well with golf dfs, using the same sort of leverage spots. In golf, in particular, the less I like the lineup (or the dirtier it feels) the better it does. Gotta make some uncomfortable cuts and plays if you wanna win, for sure. I just have to do a better job at differentiating ceiling vs floor and using them properly. Been kinda treading water recently, but feel like i’m close. As always, greatly enjoy reading your writeups every week. Thanks for doing this!
Click to expand...

The most I ever won in a year was doing college hoops, I used to crush those! Then they stopped having them for awhile, now they back but usually pretty limited on the games involved. Seemed like stealing cause think there were so many entries with ppl who really didn’t know wtf they were doing! Lol. I learned it was tougher once ncaa tourney started cause stars tended to shine then and my strategy was mostly playing mid level players who stuffed stat sheet and avoiding the high priced guys.
 
For the lineups that run today thru Monday think I used Ertz or Arnold in all of them at te. Ertz 3400 and Arnold 3k. Obviously will have to find different te’s for the Sunday only cause Ertz be done and Arnold is playing the London game, last week I couldn’t find any Sunday contest that included that game.
 
ScopeY said:
TE has been hard. Pitts I know busted Week1, Kelce busted Week 4, everyone rode hock after his start, and has been ttrash. I've been struggling there too.
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Killed me we couldn’t use pitts in Sunday lineups last week. I been struggling there also and finally had one right! Lol. I rarely use high priced qbs, leads to some like last week where qb killed me but more times than not think it the way to go.
 
It’s a damn shame I have no clue which ravens rb will get touches! Really looking to play rbs vs Chargers every week as their defensive philosophy is clearly let teams run the ball!! Ya know just like browns did ravens will look to punish them for this, but with which back? I lean to latavious Murray being the guy but who knows? At 5700 he might be worth the risk in a few lineups.
 
2daBank said:
I was thinking I wanted hurts over passing yards tonight but that number little higher than I expected so passing. Lean to Brady under 304.5 but scary.

Only 1 I’ve played so far is gio over 12.5 receiving yards, that seems redic low. I’d think Brady looks to get ball out quick and expect gio gets more involved as he gets healthier. Ovsr 1.5 receptions should cash also but too much juice at -167,

Havnt played ertz over anything yet but did use him in few lineups as he super cheap. Bucs d all banged up and hasn’t been great defending te’s or any aspect of passing games. Im assuming Goedert is out since he had a positive test the other day, I’d think that leads to Ertz approaching dd targets.
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Got ertz over 4.5 at -115 before it jumped to -140.
Took a small piece of rojo over 14.5 rush yds and gainwell over 23.5 rec yds.
 
I'll get more of a breakdown for a showdown slate later, but in general

This game is the #1 paced game of the week (familiar theme with Tampa, but its been great, because their opponents have also had a tendency to play quickly too). Tampa and Philly are both top 5 in secs/play, and both top 4 in neutral situations (within 1 possession).

It helps that philly just doesn't use their rb's to run, and that tampa is #3 in DVOA vs the run. TB dline push vs PHI oline is the 3rd best of the week. No running means even more clock stoppages from the philly side of things. Add in a negative game script, it's hard to imagine sanders rushing props doesn't stay under (i wont how low it is though).

What also bolsters the passing game of philly, is the ASR rate of the def vs off.... it's the 4th worst of the week. It's also the most mobile QB tampa has seen this year so here's to hoping the few times trouble presents itself, he will be able to avert. Tampa has given up the 28th, 31st, and 27th worst fantasy points this year to QBs, WRs, and TEs, respectively.

on the TB offensive side, they have a good run matchup vs philly, as their DVOA vs the run ranks 23rd, and they're just in the bottom half of FP's given up to RB's this season. Tampa's Oline has the best ALY (Adjusted line yards) of the week. They're 7 point favorites, with a TT around 30. Hello Fournette. I said last week he's becoming the #1. In a drubbing last week, he was out there 62% of the time, had 57% (12/21) of the running back handoffs, 62.5% of the rb targets (5/8). 5 of those 12 other atteampts from the backups came from bernard, on the last drive of the game with gabbert in. This is fournettes world, and rojo/gio are just living in it.

I'd only consider Gio in the showdown if you do a lineup where philly jumps out to a lead and maintains it.

It's a guesing game at TE. looked like brate 2 weeks ago, but last week howard had more snaps/targets....
With no gronk, I'd say 70%~ of the targets are going to the big 3. Godwin led them in targets, but the others got the TDs (2 each). Godwin has once led the big 3 in aDOT in the 5 weeks. Otherwise It's been AB or Evans as the homerun hitters, and we know he likes to target evans in the redone as well. I normally like to take the target hog, as you can't predict TD variance, but probably more TD equity in ab/evans. Idk what I'm going to do here yet
 
2daBank said:
It’s a damn shame I have no clue which ravens rb will get touches! Really looking to play rbs vs Chargers every week as their defensive philosophy is clearly let teams run the ball!! Ya know just like browns did ravens will look to punish them for this, but with which back? I lean to latavious Murray being the guy but who knows? At 5700 he might be worth the risk in a few lineups.
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It’s insane that they’re giving these dusted rbs carries over Williams
 
survive&advance said:
It’s insane that they’re giving these dusted rbs carries over Williams
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Yea I don’t really understand wtf happened there? I thought he looked good, had a nice burst against raiders week 1, then they proceed to use him less snd less, didn’t even dress one week. Fucking weird. I’d put him in every lineup and be pounding over props if they came out and told me they were gonna use him this week!
 
mcculran said:
Got ertz over 4.5 at -115 before it jumped to -140.
Took a small piece of rojo over 14.5 rush yds and gainwell over 23.5 rec yds.
Click to expand...

Like the Ertz one obviously, I’m not sure bout Jones, kinda feels to me like gio becoming not only the passing down back but might be replacing Jones as the 2. I do think bucs will try and run a bunch tonight and on short week maybe Lenny share more the load? Not much opinion on gainwell, have no clue why Philly so allergic to rushing the ball? Obviously tonight not the night to start trying so should set up well for him!
 
The lineup construction i'm only going with is 5-1, then 4-2 (left side winning team, right side losing team)
 
TE1/RB1/DST1 ---WR2/WR3 are the positive leverage captains

Fine with Ertz --- Fourneete/Sanders (only with hurts and/or philly d) ----- Watkins?/AB or Evans
 
ScopeY said:
TE1/RB1/DST1 ---WR2/WR3 are the positive leverage captains

Fine with Ertz --- Fourneete/Sanders (only with hurts and/or philly d) ----- Watkins?/AB or Evans
Click to expand...

Im kinda big on Watkins this week, he very big play dependent which always worries me, I’d think he have a shot to connect on a few in this one. Imo he turning out better than Reagor who was a terrible pick!
 
2daBank said:
Im kinda big on Watkins this week, he very big play dependent which always worries me, I’d think he have a shot to connect on a few in this one. Imo he turning out better than Reagor who was a terrible pick!
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he was out there 82% of the time last week too, thats very high, and hopefully unnoticed
 
1634304963609.png

The top lineup last night.

Had fournette MVP, which was one of the main ones we pinned, it was a 4-2 stack, 1 of the 2 recommended. Included both TEs, both QBs (who have the highest floor), And you had to get the right TB Wr.

This was my top Fournette one, Quez getting one of those rushing tds hurts got, would have put me much closer.
1634305082448.png

This was my top lineup overall
1634305319918.png

You know whats funny about the last one (my top one lineup)... I played Ertz Capt - Brady/Hurts/Fournette in 3. The lineups rounded out with Godwin/Howard, Evans/Howard, and AB/Brate ----- the only lineup that I had brate in... should have never done it..... would have put me at 136.23~
 
ScopeY said:
View attachment 59264

The top lineup last night.

Had fournette MVP, which was one of the main ones we pinned, it was a 4-2 stack, 1 of the 2 recommended. Included both TEs, both QBs (who have the highest floor), And you had to get the right TB Wr.

This was my top Fournette one, Quez getting one of those rushing tds hurts got, would have put me much closer.
View attachment 59265

This was my top lineup overall
View attachment 59267

You know whats funny about the last one (my top one lineup)... I played Ertz Capt - Brady/Hurts/Fournette in 3. The lineups rounded out with Godwin/Howard, Evans/Howard, and AB/Brate ----- the only lineup that I had brate in... should have never done it..... would have put me at 136.23~
Click to expand...

I rarely play these single game ones. I wouldnt havd did well anyways cause I probably woulda keyed Ertz as the mvp (feel like only way to cash in those is to be sneaky!).

i wasn’t able to watch game so I was just scoreboard watching on my phone, i was pumped up after seeing the start Ertz got off to, then he proceeded to do nothing else rest of the night! Lol. Hard to come back and say what I woulda did when I have benefit of hindsight, try to be honest with myself so positive Ertz woulda been my mvp. Wanna say I would have used bucs te’s but not sure I woulda went Howard over brate (made mistake of using Brate last week in some lineups)? Id think gronk most likely be back after the mini bye so no sense worrying bout which bucs te is playable.

The thu-mon entries I did I had hurts-Ertz-watkins in 1, and few with just Ertz in last nights game. Hurts and ertz were good enough where I could still get into the money, combining Watkins with them certainly not gonna give me chance to win but no reason I can’t place at least. Not as if 9 points out of wr who was so cheap kills me. Just need the others he allowed me to pay up for to over perform their price tags! As bad as te been this year Ertz getting me 12.9 not end of world and Hurts 2 rushing tds salvaged a decent score.

I just had something pop on my phone that said Ertz been traded? I accidentally swiped off it before seeing who he got traded to? That strange, Havnt understood wtf going on in Philly last couple years?!?!
 
2daBank said:
I rarely play these single game ones. I wouldnt havd did well anyways cause I probably woulda keyed Ertz as the mvp (feel like only way to cash in those is to be sneaky!).

i wasn’t able to watch game so I was just scoreboard watching on my phone, i was pumped up after seeing the start Ertz got off to, then he proceeded to do nothing else rest of the night! Lol. Hard to come back and say what I woulda did when I have benefit of hindsight, try to be honest with myself so positive Ertz woulda been my mvp. Wanna say I would have used bucs te’s but not sure I woulda went Howard over brate (made mistake of using Brate last week in some lineups)? Id think gronk most likely be back after the mini bye so no sense worrying bout which bucs te is playable.

The thu-mon entries I did I had hurts-Ertz-watkins in 1, and few with just Ertz in last nights game. Hurts and ertz were good enough where I could still get into the money, combining Watkins with them certainly not gonna give me chance to win but no reason I can’t place at least. Not as if 9 points out of wr who was so cheap kills me. Just need the others he allowed me to pay up for to over perform their price tags! As bad as te been this year Ertz getting me 12.9 not end of world and Hurts 2 rushing tds salvaged a decent score.

I just had something pop on my phone that said Ertz been traded? I accidentally swiped off it before seeing who he got traded to? That strange, Havnt understood wtf going on in Philly last couple years?!?!
Click to expand...
Ertz to Zona.

And Ertz Capt could still have cashed!! (mine above did)... and when you noticed that howard was 3k~ less, I think you would have leaned more towards him ;) I believe!
 
ScopeY said:
Ertz to Zona.

And Ertz Capt could still have cashed!! (mine above did)... and when you noticed that howard was 3k~ less, I think you would have leaned more towards him ;) I believe!
Click to expand...

Yea good chance I woulda at that price difference and realizing last week Howard seemed to be more active and on field more which was 2nd in row he out snapped Brate.,

Wow, Arizona huh? That gm aint fucking around, Uber aggressive!
 
Ertz not allowed to play for them this week correct? Not like I’d look to use him until he gets the offense. He could become a monster on that team tho!! Maxx Williams has had a few pretty big games already this year. So many weapons on cards and threat of Murray running around gonna have him getting some very favorable matchups!!
 
Speaking of Cardinals I would avoid everyone in both teams passing games this week. Forecast calling for 30-40 mph winds, i recall a few browns games last year where it was impossible to pass the ball! Def gonna check out wr and qb props looking to play unders, that total is 49.5 so clearly word isn’t out about the weather, or my weather source is crazy wrong! Lol. I’m assuming the passing game props have to be high looking at the total!! Gotta start worrying bout Murray health also, seemed like he was favoring shoulder last week. Last year cards offense went in tank when those shoulder issues popped up!
 
2daBank said:
I rarely play these single game ones. I wouldnt havd did well anyways cause I probably woulda keyed Ertz as the mvp (feel like only way to cash in those is to be sneaky!).

i wasn’t able to watch game so I was just scoreboard watching on my phone, i was pumped up after seeing the start Ertz got off to, then he proceeded to do nothing else rest of the night! Lol. Hard to come back and say what I woulda did when I have benefit of hindsight, try to be honest with myself so positive Ertz woulda been my mvp. Wanna say I would have used bucs te’s but not sure I woulda went Howard over brate (made mistake of using Brate last week in some lineups)? Id think gronk most likely be back after the mini bye so no sense worrying bout which bucs te is playable.

The thu-mon entries I did I had hurts-Ertz-watkins in 1, and few with just Ertz in last nights game. Hurts and ertz were good enough where I could still get into the money, combining Watkins with them certainly not gonna give me chance to win but no reason I can’t place at least. Not as if 9 points out of wr who was so cheap kills me. Just need the others he allowed me to pay up for to over perform their price tags! As bad as te been this year Ertz getting me 12.9 not end of world and Hurts 2 rushing tds salvaged a decent score.

I just had something pop on my phone that said Ertz been traded? I accidentally swiped off it before seeing who he got traded to? That strange, Havnt understood wtf going on in Philly last couple years?!?!
Click to expand...
Yeah losing ertz over 4.5 rec hurt.
 
KJ said:
Had Godwin o5.5 rec to close out a 3 team parlay, he managed to disappear for most of the 2nd half
Click to expand...

After looking at 1st half stats I was shocked Brady stayed under passing yards. I was to scared to play it tho, at half I thought I was smart to pass. Lol
 
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