Week 6 CFB - writeups to come



redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Week 6 CFB - with writeups

I'll write something tonight and put it up tomorrow.

For now, I'll just tell you what numbers I got REAL early this morning...thanks for the heads up on the early lines. =)


LSU pk (+105)
Miami FL -13.5 (-122) 2 units
Hawaii -9 (+100)
AZ +9.5 (-105)


Still no moneylines, at least at pinny, but I will be hitting NCSU ML when I can get it...
 
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Thats what i like to hear redbearde. i have predicted all nc state games so far and really like us getting 10.5..hit that ml up and get that money flowing early
 
IMO, if you want NCSU, u better hit it now. cannot imagine this line going up any. and that hook is tasty!
 
I am not so sure about NCSU Redbearde. They are starting that new QB, looks like a stick. Mickey Andrews will put him 6 feet under before he'll even get a pass off. Look for the 'noles to roll and pay the pack back for that ever embarassing loss last year. I will leave you with one thing to ponder....How many times has a Chuck Amato NCSU team done what everyone was thinking they would(win or lose)...seems like everyone is predicting an upset. Last time FL St came to Raleigh when ppl were thinking that was Rivers freshman year...look up the score

Buck
 
BuckytheBadger said:
I am not so sure about NCSU Redbearde. They are starting that new QB, looks like a stick. Mickey Andrews will put him 6 feet under before he'll even get a pass off. Look for the 'noles to roll and pay the pack back for that ever embarassing loss last year. I will leave you with one thing to ponder....How many times has a Chuck Amato NCSU team done what everyone was thinking they would(win or lose)...seems like everyone is predicting an upset. Last time FL St came to Raleigh when ppl were thinking that was Rivers freshman year...look up the score

Buck


Dunno bout redbearde but I for one do need to look up the score to be reminded. I was there. total ass whooping. 50 something to 10 (or close to it). believe State scored there lone TD off some checaneray at the end of the 1st quarter.

anyways, that FSU team is a shadow of its former self. none of these guys could hold their heads up and look those FSU teams dead in the eye. one thing you said is true about NCSU winning and losing. whatever you (NCSU fan) thinks is going to happen, the opposite is what really happens.

thursday night ought to be a defensive battle with one of these teams winnning b/c they made the least mistakes on the offensive side of the ball. both sides will curs more times than they cheer, but in the end NCSU ought to cover this 10.5. :cheers:
 
I don't want points in this game. I want ML dog value, and that line isn't out yet. Evans played well last game, and given the wolfpack's performance thus far and the rice slaughter in week 4, i'll be real surprised if 'everyone expects an NC St upset'...

anyway, I think it'll open about 300, and I want at least 350.
 
ML dogs

I'm going to focus on this style this week. I've seen no lines yet, but I've identified several matchps I'm likely going to be on. The last two weeks have been excellent with about 1/5 dogs winning SU last week and over 1/4 hitting this week. The only one I really feel like I let slip by was MTSU - I even played it on the Matador Invitational. I mention how many did well because I don't want to overstate the benefit of this focus. One still must be selective in the dogs one chooses. You cannot bet Rice in week 4 or Illinois in week 5 very often because most of the time that long shot is going to get the 50 point shallacking that Rice received instead of squeaking out a win like Illinois did. I don't want to downplay Illinois's win. But the likelihood of a 2800 mL dog coming in is really frickin small...it's so small in fact, that the Expected Value of betting them is typically not worth bothering. And when over a quarter of the dogs win SU in a week, I had better do well if I expect to make significant money doing this. What is doing well? 38% of ML dog wins will make you money. Somewhere between 38-40% ML dogs is probably akin to 55-58% spread/total wagers. I've hit sub35% in a week and still made money. Once last year, I hit 2-8 and still made money because the two I won were 4:1 or better. But that's not the goal. Basically, you want to win about 2 of every 5.

As it stands this week, I won these:

Arkansas St +310
San Jose St +121
Navy +118
Bowling Green +175
Florida Atlantic +520
Washington +145

and I lost these:

UNLV +178 - never had a chance.
EMU +260 - got plastered from the beginning
Duke +210 - would have been better off not showing up
Wyoming +222 - Took syracuse to OT.

This is the second OT game those fuckers have lost for me. They missed a PAT in overtime against UVA as over 3:1 dogs, and I was grouchy about that. I wanted this one too...as at the time most of my ML games hadn't begun, and my spreads were looking like I tailed JoeBren. Wyoming certainly had a chance or 14 to close this game out earlier or win it in OT. I couldn't see the game, so I can't comment much on it, but it seems cuse's rushing attack was too much for a tired Wyoming defense at the end.

I listened to the Duke game on "the duke radio network". Duke tossed several picks and couldn't get a fucking thing done. Duke made UVA look reeeeeeaal good. What a waste of airtime, money, and football pads. My god. Course, you gotta believe that if Groh lost to Duke his ass was absolutely fired if it isn't already.

San Jose St, I saw play Stanford back before all Stanford's skill position players were brutalized with injuries. The WAC trojans showed a lot of heart in that game getting way in a hole early and fighting their way back to a 35-34 win. I honestly question the line here. SJSU had at least a 50-50 shot to win this game......AT HOME. sheesh.

Navy ran over Uconn all game. The middies were unrelenting. I plan to play them again this week against the Falcons. Should be a great game. I could have waited on that navy line, but it's always a crap shoot when you want a better line. You might even not bother to play it later at 150ish when you liked it at 130ish...maybe you were driving in the middle of arkansas and it slipped your mind...

Regarding Georgia Tech....
Garf and Matador both took em, and I respect their opinions. Made me rethink me previous decision not to. But I just don't like betting ON Reggie Ball AT VPI....I just can't do that. After Saturday, if this same game was played next week with the same players, I couldn't play it then either. I just can't bet ON Reggie Ball on the road. I think Matador and Garf were looking at GT's defense being as good as VPI's or better, and that's a great angle on these games.

but....I....Just......Can't..........bet................ON.........reggie ball.....next year? We'll talk.

Rice. After Rice's and Army's performances last week, a Rice slaughter of the Black Knights was not what I thought would happen.

Florida Atlantic +520. What was I thinking? Well, again, I wish I could have seen the game, but I have trouble believing any of these SBC teams are 5:1 or 14.5 points worse than another. If they line was reversed, I'd bet the other way, too. This is the sort of speculative value betting I support. Hell, I even took Rice and La Tech last week. In the MAC and in the Sun Belt, it's not all that hard to find two teams of equal or somewhat comparable talent and coaching that one side is favored by 2.5:1 or more. If I can get +300 or better, I seriously consider making the wager. I know Arky State has had trouble scoring this year, and I know the defense looks atrocious, but against Flint, they managed to be more than competitive, and this defense is actually relatively tough. A good defense is a great thing to be backing with ML dog money (shades of georgia tech).
 
Okay,

It's the evening, and I'm watching SNF. My fantasy opponent this week has Seattle's defense, so right now I'm pretty happy with the state of things.

Stanford @ UCLA
This is one game I want to write about because I watched it relatively thoroughly. Most of the games, especially the ones I bet, I could not see yesterday. I was either driving through eastern NC or at the timeshare where I'm relegated to my phone's internet connection. It sucks for this. Anyway, Stanford wasn't really any better yesterday, but don't let this score fool you. Most of those points are directly off of turnovers through pick 6s and fumble recoveries. When UCLA's offense drives into the red zone, they have a FUCKTARD of a time getting it in the endzone. Most of the game had UCLA up 7-0 (blocked punt returned for a TD)...then 14-0 during the 3rd quarter. This is important because every skill player Stanford had that was of semi-quality is injured, and this team of Tree is Really Really Bad. UCLA is supposed to be good this year, and by Pac10 standards, I have to say this defense is pretty impressive. But everyone in the Pac10 can score points (well, except Tree), and a good defense won't get the wins over the long haul. This is one reason Washington was able to come from behind last week, and it was only Stanford's utter ineptitude that kept them out of the game. In the 4th, Tree started turning it over a lot, playcalling was going to have to be aggressive, and the only bunch who didn't know it was the Stanford band. When 17 of your 31 points come off of turnovers against Stanford, you have a -problem-. Against any other Pac10 team, including Arizona, UCLA had better have a scoring offense. The bruins managed almost 400 yards, but threw 2 picks and lost a fumble. This ismildly better than Tree throwing 3 picks and losing 2 fumbles, but Tree is the "dominate me with whips and chains" team this year...

My point here is that UCLA's performance was shabby. Especially at home against Stanford. Sure, they only allowed Tree 221 yards of total offense, and that's pretty good in the Pac10, but no one else is going to be this sort of cupcake for UCLA...no one's going to give away more than half of the scoring. This game should have been 61-0. Stanford wasn't defending shit...except when Olson threw it directly to a corner or linebacker. The bruins have serious problems on the offensive side...especially in the redzone. AND the bruins are being overvalued. This is a GREAT team to fade.

USC @ Wazzou

I heard one of the talking heads say JDB is on his shortlist for heisman contention and Garrett Wolfe in particular isn't. Come the fuck on. I must not understand what wins the heisman. I thought it had something to do with performance on the football field...not playing for a favorite school and being a cute southern white boy.

I couldn't see all that much of the Wazzou game yesterday, but the cougers really presented themselves well. They moved the ball well through the air and on the ground, and they had a good chance to WIN THE GAME against the trojans yesterday.

BWAAAHAAAHAAAAA. At the Seattle-Bears game, someone held up a sign that reads, "PUT YOUR SACK on HASSELBACK" Now, I'm sure no one's referencing teabagging...no..not at all. hahahahahahhaaa

Cougers were driving late for a TD, and the last desperation pass got picked off. So when judging the box score, you should think in terms of the Cougers having no INTs instead of the one. The cougs on the other hand, did pick off JDB once. Cougs outgained the trojans 426 - 418 and ran 75 plays compared to 67. Cougs ran for 5ypc on 28 rushes. Trojans ran for 4.7ypc on 32 rushes. Trojans fumbled 3 times and lost 1. Cougs fumbled once and didn't lose it. The big difference in performance is USC's 8-14 3rd down conversions and 2-2 4th down. Cougers had a tolerable 6-13 conversion rate, and they tried no 4th downs. Yay Trojans for sustaining drives. However, this trojans team doesn't look like they should be laying 20 points per game, this year...especially on the road.

Let me sum this up this way. Wazzou and USC were absolutely comparable statistically. The cougers even had 3 sacks and the Trojans had none. No wonder Washington St had a good chance at an upset that, had Illinois not won, would have been the talk of the sporting world. Be careful fading wazzou or laying huge numbers with USC in the coming weeks.

Northern Iowa

This team lives to upset Iowa and Iowa State. Didn't they manage it last season? I'm not shitting on someone's pick. ISU -should- perhaps perform better. But ISU should have performed better against Toledo too. I thought the Texas and Hawaii options were far superior and I unloaded most of the remainder of my pinny account into them (fortunately for me, no backdoor cover effed me). Iowa State had to come back to win this game...I honestly thought Northern Iowa was going to win when I was watching the score in the first half. Any of you see the game and can comment on what happened?

Purdue @ Notre Dame

This game went about like I thought...until the 4th quarter when Purdue turned into PurSitOnOurAsses. I think my favorite comment on the game wasn't so much about the offensive production, but rather the incredible lack of defense. Guys weren't wrapping up, guys weren't playing with urgency. It was slow. Bad karma here. Too bad the offenses stopped trying or my over mighta come in.

Akron @ Kent St

I still want to know what the fuck happened with this game. Last week, Kent St performed incredibly well and surprised everyone. This week, they did it again against what was supposed.to be a good defense. Once is a misfire. Twice is gunplay. Three times and we might have to consider calling this bunch legitimately good (for their level). I'm watching this Kent St system closely. I don't think I should have had this game in my ML plays last week (REALLY didn't see this homedog winning...so much so that I had an Akron spreadplay), but this week I would have to give it some thought, and I'm going to give Kent St a lot of thought this week.

No Illinois @ Ball St

how is someone who rushes for 350 yards in a game not in heisman contention? I know Ball St isn't of michigan or tOSU defensive stature, but neither is N. Illinois' offensive line of those offensive statures, either. Anyway, this ground game I figured would obliterate Ball St. Turns out that the birdies held their own fairly well, and the fight for the spread went well into the second half. I couldn't give this one a look as a ML dog precisely because of NIU's great running game.

Okay, enough with the reflections. I'll get into this week's games here soon.
 
okay, here's what I have so far:

LSU pk (+105)
Miami FL -13.5 (-122) 2 units
Hawaii -9 (+100)
AZ +9.5 (-105)
Fresno St -28 (-102) 2 units
Kent St -24 (-105)
Missouri +3.5 (+103)

NC State +410
Navy +143
Arizona +420
Baylor +190
Memphis +224
Missouri +152
Oregon +204
FLInt +112
UL Monroe +234

I unfortunately am not feeling particularly loquacious right now. So perhaps I'll have more write-ups tomorrow.
 
adding buffalo +190 largely because it's Garf's first play and I had considered it myself...
 
adding

Pittsburgh -7 (+100)
Louisville 1H -18.5 (-111)
Vanderbilt -3 (+125)

Pitt & Louis should cover relatively easy. Vandy I figure wins by a TD.

currently, I have 1/4 what I had on spreads last week. Unless I see a soft 1AA line, not much else will happen...

considering Wisconsin -20.5. thoughts anyone?
 
Excellent read, redbearde, but I can't comment because it will be sometime on Tuesday before I know who plays who.
Keep up the good work. I especially am getting interested in ML plays.
Had 1 fror 2 last week myself.

re games u didn't c. Duke was absolutely atrocious. I don't think it was Groh & co coming to life. Dukie offense just non-existent.

Wazzou did have decent shot for the win. My ATS bet was pretty secure.

I'm a 1-AA buff, and NO Iowa didn't surprise me at all. IN fact, I posted in someone's thread to 'beware' .

Best of luck this week. :cheers:
 
redbearde,

I agree with your assessment of the UCLA/ Stanford game...I'm very interested in Arizona this week, especially if it gets bet up to 13 or 14...if not I'll probably end up selling it to 11.5...Tuitama finally threw for 300 yards for the first time this season...coaching matchup is about even and we are gettting DD's...your thoughts?...
 
pags, I'll respond in more detail tomorrow, but I'm right there with you, bro.

FLint +112 and North Texas crossed 0. I have a ML middle at UNT +132 hurray! I'm also waiting for a better number on UF to go with my LSU pk +105...
:)

I also added

Minny +128.

Doubt I get better odds on this one, and I want to play it.

I also added

NCSU +10.5 -109 3 units
Memphis +5 +104
Oregon +4 -101
Barfalo +4 +102
Navy +3 -102
Minny +2.5 +107
UL Monroe +5 +104

dog plays this week. woof woof.

Go wolfpack!
 
I dont understand ur moneyline philosophy sometimes, do u not like the sooners?
 
I do like Oklahoma...at +8 where it opened. At +4, I like em considerably less, and for less than 1.75:1, I don't like Oklahoma at all.

They open the MLs later, so it gives them a buffer from accidentally offering 3:1 on oklahoma. That woulda been a great spot, but the value is gone at his point. I hoped it would come back up, but alas, it doesn't look like it. You never know...sometimes cris has higher lines on some than pinny, and I will definitely check...but I don't see positive EV on oklahoma right now. Do you think oklahoma is the better team? I dont.
 
pags,

sorry for the delay...

Well, I hit this line at +9.5 as soon as I saw it on Sunday. Oops. I like Arizona here, and I have them to win straight up at 420, as well. If it gets to 14, I'll put another unit on it there, and, if it doesn't, like you I'll probably sell off as far down as I can and tap another unit.

Arizona held SC to just a couple TDs. JDB is no Leinart, contrary to ESPN's announcers perception, but those WRs are fuckin incredible. Against Washington, somehow Stoops' defense gave up 3 TDs in the second quarter, but do note that even though the Wildcats gave up over 460 yards of offense, that was all the points Washington got. Now, Zona will need to score a bit more and commit turnovers a bit less (this means you, Tuitama) in order to beat UCLA. Tuitama passed the ball fairly well against the UCLA secondary...hard to say if that's impressive or not, but he's got to not throw a pick, and he's absolutley got to improve on 3rd down conversions...

This is not one of those situations where AZ is the better team.......not at all (kinda like who the fuck knows with FLint and UNT?). But any problems we see on AZ's offense, UCLA has them too and *especially* in the red zone (I shat on UCLA enough above...). I don't think AZ has better than a 30-35% chance of winning, and that may be optimistic, but Washington's been consistently underrated on both sides of the ball (cept this week...I can't fade SC at home yet). ...so I don't think AZ should have been favored last week, BUT UCLA has some serious offensive issues too. As I said earlier, most of UCLA's points came off turnovers, and a stoops defense here may fare significantly better than against that Washington offense. Without the Stanford (tuitama this week...)gifts, then we might end up with a fairly good game. To win SU, AZ needs to improve this week. If UCLA doesn't improve, and given the 31pt win that's not entirely unlikely, then I think Stoops' boys have a good chance at the win...especially given the 4.2:1, I'm all over this one. It's more of a fade of UCLA because I think they're over-rated given their performances. .....I think Notre Dame is, too. The media just loves TD Jesus, I guess. Arizona smells like they're on the way up, and UCLA seems content with sucking on the Stanford tit of mediocrity.

At over 4:1, this is a good spot. For less than 3:1, I'm not sure I would play this. So give that some consideration.

....or, as usual, I could be completely wrong.

=)
 
Florida St @ NCSU NCSU +10.5 and +410

Okay, this is a revenge spot for FSU. FSU beat all hell out of Troy St (in the 2h) and Rice (all day). Against semblances of defense, FSU has had a helluva time this year. This Rice team let houston pound them all over the field for 3 quarters too...including let them come back for the victory. My point here is that Florida St isn't the vaunted DEATH KNELL of an automatic L that they used to be. NCSU has the pieces for a decent defense. They've not done so well thus far this year, but I think there's been some improvement defensively, and I know there's some talent there...even losing the D-line to the NFL, there's still some threats there that have moved in, and I still think BC is a better team, especially in the trenches, and competing with the Eagles tells me that NCSU has done something to improve.

So here comes the yearly Super Bowl for the Wolfpack. This is the game where NC State tries to get national recognition. It's a lose-lose situation for FSU. If the noles win, well, they should...especially given how shitty NCSU has played thus far. But if the noles lose, the perception is like how NC State fans felt after the Akron loss. "HOW could THAT happen....?" It's extremely important to NC State to beat FSU. It's like how Memphis would look at beating Tennessee. It doesn't happen often (once for memphis), and when it does, it's an overachievement that the Wolfpack looks back on with love and affection. It washes away the stain of losing to (ick)Akorn [even though Akron was the much better team] at home.

So FSU has little to gain by a win, a lot to lose with a loss, NC state has a lot to gain by a win, not so much to lose by a loss (who expected them to win anyway except redbearde the retard?), and so the Wolfpack comes in without the pressure the noles must be feeling. Expectations are high, the revenge factor might just play a part for the noles, and basically, I think the mindset situation really favors the wolfpack.

Statistically, up until Rice, FSU hasn't run the ball for shit - they even had trouble with Troy rushing for only 83 yards on 28 rushes. Don't tell me about Miami's sick defense. I haven't seen it since week 1 when they held FSU's rushing offense to Limp Dick, but the Noles barely got it up against Troy St. I'm still pissed at myself for drinking the Canes' koolaid last week instead of taking the dog like I should have. NCSU's defense is capable, though we haven't seen them shut down the run quite like I think they can, as i said above, I think NCSU is getting better...notably in the game versus BC. FSU may have gotten better stats lately, but against Rice, I can't say the team has gotten better yet.

FSU versus Rice is irrelavent just like Marcus Stone's big win against App St. pfft.

Against Clemson, the Noles managed a whopping 124 yards rushing on 38 rushes. Do the math. This is terrible. Granted, Clemson is better than NCSU in every way I can think of, but this is the template Chuck will use to prepare the wolfpack for this game, and NC State has a kicking game...the Noles had 226 yards of total offense. Let me repeat that: THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES had 226 yards of total offense for a game.

I'll say it again. Tommy Bowden and Chuck Amato, for whatever reason, know how to beat Old Man Bowden.

I haven't even mentioned FSU's fumble probs yet. 7, that's SEVEN fumbles against Troy St and they lost 3. 4 fumbles against Clemson, and they lost 2. WHOOPSY! Hey, NCSU may have found the team that can outfumble them...

This is one of those spots where the simple wisdom says that FSU is the better team and should/will beat NCSU by 2 TDs or more. But this FSU team hasn't done that against anyone of consequence. Week 1 looked good for the noles, but since then, Miami has had the worst year they've had in a long fucking time...Might we see a 4 or 5 loss team from the U???? So then is this REALLY such an impressive victory for FSU? I think not.

On the NC State side, Daniel Evans will be at home for his second start. He got broken in harshly against BC but managed a late 4th Quarter game-winning drive. Not only can he pass and get lucky sometimes, he takes advantage of the luck and GETS THE WIN. This as opposed to Stone who always seemed to manage to throw good luck away and depend on that NFL defense NCSU had last year. I don't want to overstate the kid's benefit because he is young and is about to get the hell beat out of him by a talented FSU defense. But Evans came into the southern Miss game late and though he threw a pick, he completed 8 of 11 attempts...and I figured hey, maybe he has accuracy. Maybe Marcus Stone can spell that, but he never could manage to perform it...I still didn't think the pack could manage a victory in Week 4. He was 16-33 for 166 yards, a TD, and a pick, but with a semblance of a passing threat, the Wolfpack's running game has a CHANCE. Against the purportedly tough BC D-line, the Pack ran for 143 yards on 22 rushes. 6.5 ypc!!!! AND...no fumbles for the wolfpack. IN A WHOLE GAME. AM-ZING!

On the other side, NC State allowed 175 yards on 41 rushes. 4.3ypc ain't terrible, but again, this BC O-line is supposed to be big, tough, and asskicking.

For the Wolfpack to win this FSU game, NCSU will have to not turn the ball over, contain the noles' running game, and make for damn sure to pound the ball themselves. This means another fumble-free performance. It means improving on te 3-13 3rd down conversion rate. It means Evans throwing for 20-33 instead of 16-33. It means no picks. This is all possible. Even if the pack does cough it up or Evans throws a pick, an apparent fumble-prone FSU might just return the favor. The pack will have to run the ball 30 times, at least, instead of this 22 rushes shit.

The most important aspect of this game, in my mind, though, is the experience of the last few years where we have seen Amato-coached teams compete well with FSU, and the wolfpack even beat them IN TALLAHASSEE last year. This is not the FSU team that raped NCSU in Philip Rivers' first year. It's a young team, and NCSU is more than capable of winning.

Again, FSU should be favored. This is no a situation where the line is wrong or something. But I got a bit over 400 last year IN florida st's hometown, and now I get over 400 at Carter-Finley? Well...okay. THANKS!

I'm also playing the spread as I think the above comments are correct;it'll be a low-scoring game, NC State will have a chance or 5 to win, and I honestly think they likely will convert that. ...........as long as Evans throws for 60% accuracy with no picks, the running backs don't fumble, and the O-line manages some good blocking, this is a great situation to cash in on a somewhat over-rated FSU team.

I think this line should be more like FSU -4.5 (just over a TD minus HF), and I will take my perceived 35-40% chance to win and my +410 line, and I'll do the Happy Dance.

oh, when I say 35-40% chance, that's a number derived directly from being pulled out of my ass. that part's an art. It's like garf and his sun-belt conference power rankings...it's indefensible statistically (and pretty un-attackable, too), but I think he's more accurate than inaccurate with his rankings, and it's a more than reasonable thinking to apply to one's wagering considerations.

Baylor @ Colorado Baylor +190

Really not believing in all the hype about Colorado. Really Not Believing it. Oh good. They almost beat UGA with anemic offense. Good for them. That means they lost, and they did so spectacularly in the last 6 minutes of the 4th quarter. FUCK "almost" laying points. Are you kidding me? If this team had Temple at home, I'd bet Temple plus the points, because I guaranfuckingtee you it
would be too many.

Memphis @ UAB Memphis +224

These clowns are inscrutable. The dragons, I mean. Memphis made quite a showing of themselves against UT for a half...I saw most of it, and I was honestly impressed. Tennessee just outclassed them. UAB, well, you never know what these dingbats will do, but outclassing Memphis likely won't be it. I'll take the 224 here on speculation and UAB's consistent inconsistency.

Missouri @ TT Mizzou +152

I'm ashamed of my line. I just couldn't believe anyone would bet it back up. What are you people doing fading Mizzou? They haven't played a bad game...they've even given a backdoor cover for an underdog moosing! I know Tech is good, but I'll take the spread offense here. I've seen this team play, and I was impressed. TT better stop this impressive QB...though I don't think they will.

Oregon @ Cal Oregon +204

Ducks get Pac10 officials, right? Great. QUACK FUCKING QUACK. While I could whine some more about the Oklahoma game, I would say that Oregon can play some offense. The defense, well, that's suspect to say the least, and Cal may well beat the quackers down, but this ducks offense, and the extremely offensive uniforms, give them a decent shot at any game. I would not be at all surprised to see a very close game here (figure on 70% likely a close tossup of a game), would be kinda surprised to see a Duck blowout (10% I'm thinking), and a little bit less surprised to see the Bears eat the ducks up and shit down their cheerleaders' throats (20% Cal blowout). Cal is at home and probably deserves to be favored, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see this line drop a bit. I think it's a tad high. Perhaps -3.5 here, too. Honestly, though, here I'm willing to bow to the books line and take a shot at a great top 10 team winning a tough game on the road.

FLint @ North Texas Flint +112 & UNT +132

Who gives a fuck, and who could possibly say? GO MEAN GREEN! (though my guess is that FLint is the better team.......this week)

UL Monroe @ Arkansas St ULM +234

Don't ask me to defend this. Arky St has the better defense, but they seem to pick and choose where to use it. How UAB of them...Here's another speculative shot. I may get my shit pushed in doing this some weeks, but it worked really fucking well last week and it did last year, too.

Ball St @ Barfalo Barf +190

This is a tail from TheGarfather. And Matador. Both these teams are really really bad. Garf seems to think Barf is better. *shrug* I am not one to argue *for* Ball St. So this is a BIG speculation play...but I kinda like it, actually. Smells like my Temple bet AGAINST barfalo in week 1. And hey, I don't have many Homedogs this week. I'll take it when I can get it.....and on that note......

Penn St @ Minnesota Minny +128

Penn St has the work cut out for em this week. Not sure this line is right. If it crosses over, and I think there's a chance of that, I'll take PSU on the other side. I'm wondering if PSU can stop Minny's rungame. I'm REALLLY wondering if Morelli can manage to not get killed by the Minny defense. They showed up against Michigan for a while...and I honestly think Michigan is a litmus test for teams this year. Big Blue will beat tOSU, btw. Buckeyes won't be able to keep up. Likely won't be a trouncing like the domers ran into, but Troy Smith Ginn won't win that game. Sorry buckeye boys. I'm a michigan believer this year. That's a National Championship team.

Anyway, someone tell me why Minny is a homedog here?

I'm on a lot of dogs this week, and I'm feeling pretty good about it. I had the sense of impending doom last weekend, so I was glad to see the Hawaii and Texas lines. As soon as anyone sees Added Games show up at Pinny, please do post it so's we can get over there and sniff out any soft ones.
 
Hmm... I'll jump in on that NCST game with you. +10.5 is a pretty nice number, despite not knowing anything about either team.

Finding the lines themselves is the most difficult part. There's always so many other lines that look similar. North Carolina, Carolina, Carolina State... Luckilly the spreads usually give away the correct one. =) GL!
 
redbearde said:
. Do you think oklahoma is the better team? I dont.

Honestly i am not sure, I had OU as my preseason 1 before bomar got the boot. So im not sure where they are now. I think texas has more talent, but not much more on the defensive side.
Texas has beat..
Sam Houston St
Rice
North Texas
Iowa ST

The one real game they played also at home, they got embarassed..:shake:
 
It's the thursday game, DiceMan.

and I don't recommend you put money on this game unless you have some idea what you're doing. FSU should beat the shit out of NCSU.

I just predict that they won't.

GL with your decision.
 
redbearde said:
It's the thursday game, DiceMan.

and I don't recommend you put money on this game unless you have some idea what you're doing. FSU should beat the shit out of NCSU.

I just predict that they won't.

GL with your decision.

Gambling's gambling. I'll try and look for a safer Thursday game maybe, but if not, I'll put a small bet down. I certainly won't be a lot on a sport I have little familiarity with.
 
abcs, I'm not sure that losing to Ohio State by the shortest margin they've had yet is getting embarrased... The buckeyes are pretty damned tough...but your point is certainly legitimate, and like i said, I DO WANT to play Oklahoma. I just want more for it...I'm watching and waiting bro.

RSMS, I actually think AZ +9.5 kinda sucks now that I can get it at +11...heh. But I do think there's value in it at the lower number.
 
DiceMan said:
Gambling's gambling. I'll try and look for a safer Thursday game maybe, but if not, I'll put a small bet down. I certainly won't be a lot on a sport I have little familiarity with.

I'm not a gambling man. I try to be a positive expected value player, and I think of this whole getup as a better investment than the stockmarket...and I treat it that way. That's why I didn't bet tonight. I couldn't get the number on Tulsa I wanted. I'm glad too, because the punks weren't lookin too good going into the 4th, and I can just SMELL a backdoor moosing.....

Enjoy the game on thursday...should be a good one.

:shake:
 
redbearde said:
I'm not a gambling man. I try to be a positive expected value player, and I think of this whole getup as a better investment than the stockmarket...and I treat it that way. That's why I didn't bet tonight. I couldn't get the number on Tulsa I wanted. I'm glad too, because the punks weren't lookin too good going into the 4th, and I can just SMELL a backdoor moosing.....

Enjoy the game on thursday...should be a good one.

:shake:

Thanks. I'm trying to get in that sort of mindframe, but when I get that need to gamble I've just gotta put some money out somewhere. Hell, I bet on the coin toss in the Green Bay game last night because I was unsure of the actual matchup. I need to pull myself together and start making smarter bets.
 
DiceMan said:
Thanks. I'm trying to get in that sort of mindframe, but when I get that need to gamble I've just gotta put some money out somewhere. Hell, I bet on the coin toss in the Green Bay game last night because I was unsure of the actual matchup. I need to pull myself together and start making smarter bets.

If you want to put a buck on the coin toss for fun, I can see that. It isn't my thing, but my cousin thinks it's great...but if you're going to put real money on a game or a coin toss without any information backing it up for you, then you may as well go play blackjack. I'm not trying to be a dick here...just saying this is a hard thing to do properly, and it takes a lot of work, research, and time.

And doing it improperly can cost you a helluva lot...

Good luck this week, bro.
 
redbearde,

excellent thoughts here...what you wrote is what I explained to my buddy today...it's just as much a play against UCLA as it is on Arizona...I've learned that come Pac 10 play, it's very difficult to cover these double digit spreads, especially with two teams that are so similiar...UCLA may have a slight edge in the offensive side (although I think Arizona has more playmakers if they can get their shit together)...both coaches are average, both defenses are good, both kickers are good...comes down to me as a game that could end up a defensive battles...played Arizona +12 today as I don't think we see 14...GL...
 
this line may get better, but I thought I'd take even money while I can, and I like wisky in excess of 3TDs.

Wisconsin -20.5 (+100)
 
thats probably the best writeup ive seen on the nc state game and will see... not really too much to add there except for the fact that the last 6 games have all been within dds and nc state holds a 3-3 record against them. i will take those double digit points and take a 50-50 shot that nc state wins this one straight out...raleigh will be jumpin tomorrow!
 
thanks bro. I hope we're right about this...both as a fan AND financially.

I think it rivals the FAU value from last week, though if you give NCSU a 50% chance at winning, then you're a tad more optimistic than I...

heh.

GL to us!
 
pags11 said:
redbearde,

excellent thoughts here...what you wrote is what I explained to my buddy today...it's just as much a play against UCLA as it is on Arizona...I've learned that come Pac 10 play, it's very difficult to cover these double digit spreads, especially with two teams that are so similiar...UCLA may have a slight edge in the offensive side (although I think Arizona has more playmakers if they can get their shit together)...both coaches are average, both defenses are good, both kickers are good...comes down to me as a game that could end up a defensive battles...played Arizona +12 today as I don't think we see 14...GL...

You could make a case for either side here. With both teams' ineptness on offense combined with decent D's, I'll look to make an under play........
 
hey we have beaten them every other time since 2000...i consider that 50-50....lets go wolfpack...20 hours till its game time


redbearde said:
thanks bro. I hope we're right about this...both as a fan AND financially.

I think it rivals the FAU value from last week, though if you give NCSU a 50% chance at winning, then you're a tad more optimistic than I...

heh.

GL to us!
 
100% on Arizona...however,

Penn St is favored for multiple reasons...they have a way better defense, the situation actually favors them as they are off an easy home game while minnesota is off of what they consider one of their biggest games of the year and finally, they are 0-4 as a HD they're last 4, as they have a very overrated home field. Minnesota is off a huge effort...Penn St will win this week.
 
thanks for the comments horses. I guess i'll just hope for a miranellibelliyeli meltdown...

GL this week.
 
Hmmm

Really taking a liking to Wisky and AZ plays. Wisky's played Michy real well for most of the game... and Northwestern cannot find the passing game at all. Don't see them rolling in on the road and running all over Wisky... or at all for that matter. Game should be over at half and Wisky shouldn't letup... see last week.
 
Inspekdah said:
Hmmm

Really taking a liking to Wisky and AZ plays. Wisky's played Michy real well for most of the game... and Northwestern cannot find the passing game at all. Don't see them rolling in on the road and running all over Wisky... or at all for that matter. Game should be over at half and Wisky shouldn't letup... see last week.

That's what I'm hoping bro. GL to us.
 
good to hear that there are at least a couple of more people interested in Arizona...I thought it was only me and redbearde...
 
No... I am NOT impressed with UCLA. They seemed to have a feel for their offense WEEK 1... in terms of not really being rusty or inexperienced. The problem is... is doesn't look like it's naturally improved or gotten any better. AZ really started to play better last season around this time... I think they can do it again. Plus they really do have more athletic playmakers and I see UCLA not having the defense to control the game.
 
thats how it is done redbearde! evans looks good in the pocket...how bout james and bowens...man those underclassman are looking good
 
no shit bro. that was great! We seem to have a team, now...Evans was the missing piece.

it would be hysterical if we managed to win the division now....hahahaha...
 
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