Florida St @ NCSU NCSU +10.5 and +410
Okay, this is a revenge spot for FSU. FSU beat all hell out of Troy St (in the 2h) and Rice (all day). Against semblances of defense, FSU has had a helluva time this year. This Rice team let houston pound them all over the field for 3 quarters too...including let them come back for the victory. My point here is that Florida St isn't the vaunted DEATH KNELL of an automatic L that they used to be. NCSU has the pieces for a decent defense. They've not done so well thus far this year, but I think there's been some improvement defensively, and I know there's some talent there...even losing the D-line to the NFL, there's still some threats there that have moved in, and I still think BC is a better team, especially in the trenches, and competing with the Eagles tells me that NCSU has done something to improve.
So here comes the yearly Super Bowl for the Wolfpack. This is the game where NC State tries to get national recognition. It's a lose-lose situation for FSU. If the noles win, well, they should...especially given how shitty NCSU has played thus far. But if the noles lose, the perception is like how NC State fans felt after the Akron loss. "HOW could THAT happen....?" It's extremely important to NC State to beat FSU. It's like how Memphis would look at beating Tennessee. It doesn't happen often (once for memphis), and when it does, it's an overachievement that the Wolfpack looks back on with love and affection. It washes away the stain of losing to (ick)Akorn [even though Akron was the much better team] at home.
So FSU has little to gain by a win, a lot to lose with a loss, NC state has a lot to gain by a win, not so much to lose by a loss (who expected them to win anyway except redbearde the retard?), and so the Wolfpack comes in without the pressure the noles must be feeling. Expectations are high, the revenge factor might just play a part for the noles, and basically, I think the mindset situation really favors the wolfpack.
Statistically, up until Rice, FSU hasn't run the ball for shit - they even had trouble with Troy rushing for only 83 yards on 28 rushes. Don't tell me about Miami's sick defense. I haven't seen it since week 1 when they held FSU's rushing offense to Limp Dick, but the Noles barely got it up against Troy St. I'm still pissed at myself for drinking the Canes' koolaid last week instead of taking the dog like I should have. NCSU's defense is capable, though we haven't seen them shut down the run quite like I think they can, as i said above, I think NCSU is getting better...notably in the game versus BC. FSU may have gotten better stats lately, but against Rice, I can't say the team has gotten better yet.
FSU versus Rice is irrelavent just like Marcus Stone's big win against App St. pfft.
Against Clemson, the Noles managed a whopping 124 yards rushing on 38 rushes. Do the math. This is terrible. Granted, Clemson is better than NCSU in every way I can think of, but this is the template Chuck will use to prepare the wolfpack for this game, and NC State has a kicking game...the Noles had 226 yards of total offense. Let me repeat that: THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES had 226 yards of total offense for a game.
I'll say it again. Tommy Bowden and Chuck Amato, for whatever reason, know how to beat Old Man Bowden.
I haven't even mentioned FSU's fumble probs yet. 7, that's SEVEN fumbles against Troy St and they lost 3. 4 fumbles against Clemson, and they lost 2. WHOOPSY! Hey, NCSU may have found the team that can outfumble them...
This is one of those spots where the simple wisdom says that FSU is the better team and should/will beat NCSU by 2 TDs or more. But this FSU team hasn't done that against anyone of consequence. Week 1 looked good for the noles, but since then, Miami has had the worst year they've had in a long fucking time...Might we see a 4 or 5 loss team from the U???? So then is this REALLY such an impressive victory for FSU? I think not.
On the NC State side, Daniel Evans will be at home for his second start. He got broken in harshly against BC but managed a late 4th Quarter game-winning drive. Not only can he pass and get lucky sometimes, he takes advantage of the luck and GETS THE WIN. This as opposed to Stone who always seemed to manage to throw good luck away and depend on that NFL defense NCSU had last year. I don't want to overstate the kid's benefit because he is young and is about to get the hell beat out of him by a talented FSU defense. But Evans came into the southern Miss game late and though he threw a pick, he completed 8 of 11 attempts...and I figured hey, maybe he has accuracy. Maybe Marcus Stone can spell that, but he never could manage to perform it...I still didn't think the pack could manage a victory in Week 4. He was 16-33 for 166 yards, a TD, and a pick, but with a semblance of a passing threat, the Wolfpack's running game has a CHANCE. Against the purportedly tough BC D-line, the Pack ran for 143 yards on 22 rushes. 6.5 ypc!!!! AND...no fumbles for the wolfpack. IN A WHOLE GAME. AM-ZING!
On the other side, NC State allowed 175 yards on 41 rushes. 4.3ypc ain't terrible, but again, this BC O-line is supposed to be big, tough, and asskicking.
For the Wolfpack to win this FSU game, NCSU will have to not turn the ball over, contain the noles' running game, and make for damn sure to pound the ball themselves. This means another fumble-free performance. It means improving on te 3-13 3rd down conversion rate. It means Evans throwing for 20-33 instead of 16-33. It means no picks. This is all possible. Even if the pack does cough it up or Evans throws a pick, an apparent fumble-prone FSU might just return the favor. The pack will have to run the ball 30 times, at least, instead of this 22 rushes shit.
The most important aspect of this game, in my mind, though, is the experience of the last few years where we have seen Amato-coached teams compete well with FSU, and the wolfpack even beat them IN TALLAHASSEE last year. This is not the FSU team that raped NCSU in Philip Rivers' first year. It's a young team, and NCSU is more than capable of winning.
Again, FSU should be favored. This is no a situation where the line is wrong or something. But I got a bit over 400 last year IN florida st's hometown, and now I get over 400 at Carter-Finley? Well...okay. THANKS!
I'm also playing the spread as I think the above comments are correct;it'll be a low-scoring game, NC State will have a chance or 5 to win, and I honestly think they likely will convert that. ...........as long as Evans throws for 60% accuracy with no picks, the running backs don't fumble, and the O-line manages some good blocking, this is a great situation to cash in on a somewhat over-rated FSU team.
I think this line should be more like FSU -4.5 (just over a TD minus HF), and I will take my perceived 35-40% chance to win and my +410 line, and I'll do the Happy Dance.
oh, when I say 35-40% chance, that's a number derived directly from being pulled out of my ass. that part's an art. It's like garf and his sun-belt conference power rankings...it's indefensible statistically (and pretty un-attackable, too), but I think he's more accurate than inaccurate with his rankings, and it's a more than reasonable thinking to apply to one's wagering considerations.
Baylor @ Colorado Baylor +190
Really not believing in all the hype about Colorado. Really Not Believing it. Oh good. They almost beat UGA with anemic offense. Good for them. That means they lost, and they did so spectacularly in the last 6 minutes of the 4th quarter. FUCK "almost" laying points. Are you kidding me? If this team had Temple at home, I'd bet Temple plus the points, because I guaranfuckingtee you it
would be too many.
Memphis @ UAB Memphis +224
These clowns are inscrutable. The dragons, I mean. Memphis made quite a showing of themselves against UT for a half...I saw most of it, and I was honestly impressed. Tennessee just outclassed them. UAB, well, you never know what these dingbats will do, but outclassing Memphis likely won't be it. I'll take the 224 here on speculation and UAB's consistent inconsistency.
Missouri @ TT Mizzou +152
I'm ashamed of my line. I just couldn't believe anyone would bet it back up. What are you people doing fading Mizzou? They haven't played a bad game...they've even given a backdoor cover for an underdog moosing! I know Tech is good, but I'll take the spread offense here. I've seen this team play, and I was impressed. TT better stop this impressive QB...though I don't think they will.
Oregon @ Cal Oregon +204
Ducks get Pac10 officials, right? Great. QUACK FUCKING QUACK. While I could whine some more about the Oklahoma game, I would say that Oregon can play some offense. The defense, well, that's suspect to say the least, and Cal may well beat the quackers down, but this ducks offense, and the extremely offensive uniforms, give them a decent shot at any game. I would not be at all surprised to see a very close game here (figure on 70% likely a close tossup of a game), would be kinda surprised to see a Duck blowout (10% I'm thinking), and a little bit less surprised to see the Bears eat the ducks up and shit down their cheerleaders' throats (20% Cal blowout). Cal is at home and probably deserves to be favored, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see this line drop a bit. I think it's a tad high. Perhaps -3.5 here, too. Honestly, though, here I'm willing to bow to the books line and take a shot at a great top 10 team winning a tough game on the road.
FLint @ North Texas Flint +112 & UNT +132
Who gives a fuck, and who could possibly say? GO MEAN GREEN! (though my guess is that FLint is the better team.......this week)
UL Monroe @ Arkansas St ULM +234
Don't ask me to defend this. Arky St has the better defense, but they seem to pick and choose where to use it. How UAB of them...Here's another speculative shot. I may get my shit pushed in doing this some weeks, but it worked really fucking well last week and it did last year, too.
Ball St @ Barfalo Barf +190
This is a tail from TheGarfather. And Matador. Both these teams are really really bad. Garf seems to think Barf is better. *shrug* I am not one to argue *for* Ball St. So this is a BIG speculation play...but I kinda like it, actually. Smells like my Temple bet AGAINST barfalo in week 1. And hey, I don't have many Homedogs this week. I'll take it when I can get it.....and on that note......
Penn St @ Minnesota Minny +128
Penn St has the work cut out for em this week. Not sure this line is right. If it crosses over, and I think there's a chance of that, I'll take PSU on the other side. I'm wondering if PSU can stop Minny's rungame. I'm REALLLY wondering if Morelli can manage to not get killed by the Minny defense. They showed up against Michigan for a while...and I honestly think Michigan is a litmus test for teams this year. Big Blue will beat tOSU, btw. Buckeyes won't be able to keep up. Likely won't be a trouncing like the domers ran into, but Troy Smith Ginn won't win that game. Sorry buckeye boys. I'm a michigan believer this year. That's a National Championship team.
Anyway, someone tell me why Minny is a homedog here?
I'm on a lot of dogs this week, and I'm feeling pretty good about it. I had the sense of impending doom last weekend, so I was glad to see the Hawaii and Texas lines. As soon as anyone sees Added Games show up at Pinny, please do post it so's we can get over there and sniff out any soft ones.
