Week 6 (10/1-10/6) CFB Picks and News

[RJ Esq]

Pete Carroll Is Going To Beat Stanford By 200

Posted Oct 5th 2007 9:01AM by Brian Cook
Filed under: USC Football, Pac 10, NCAA FB Coaching, Stanford Football

Jim Harbaugh's first order of business as Stanford head coach was to piss off the king of college football's ass-kickingest program, Pete Carroll, first asserting that this would be Carroll's last season as USC head coach, then refusing to retract that, then sarcastically proclaiming USC the best team of all time. (Perhaps the best evidence for Harbaugh's assertion that Michgian hands kids meaningless degrees is the one that says "Jim Harbaugh" on it.)

So it should be no surprise that Carroll's not a fan:

Asked Tuesday to assess the job Jim Harbaugh is doing as Stanford's first-year coach, Carroll praised the former NFL quarterback's competitive attitude and said, among other things, "Jimmy never did make himself into a statesman. . . . He's not real politically correct all the time, and I don't think he cares."

After Carroll completed a lengthy answer, he paused five seconds for dramatic effect, then added, "He has not checked in with me about any of my career moves. I expect a call late in the week."​

USC plays Stanford this weekend, which should be pure bloodsport. Carroll's unlikely to actually put up a humiliating 70 or whatever -- you can only be so pissed off when you're Pete Carroll -- but the postgame handshake should be interesting.

 

[RJ Esq]

WSU's Defense Shuffles in New Bodies

Posted Oct 5th 2007 8:30AM by Sean Hawkins
Filed under: Washington State Football, Pac 10

Through the first five games of 2007, it's hard to find a defense that's played much worse than WSU. Last in the Pac-10 in scoring defense, total defense, and passing defense among the major categories, a program that used to pride itself on playing fast and aggressive has turned into a passive group lacking experience and, most of all, confidence.
It's gotten so bad, this defense ranked "in the hundreds" among the nation's teams, that even the few productive players on defense are going to be replaced. Newcomers Alfonso Jackson and Kendrick Dunn, two of the top tacklers on the team, are both out this week after suffering injuries last week vs. Arizona. So changes are in fact coming for this beleagured group, but sadly, it's not really even by choice. At least four new starters will be in the lineup Saturday when WSU hosts ASU. Among the new starters is junior defensive tackle A'i Ahmu (pictured), a player who's battled stress fractures in his foot for the last year. Ahmu will start in place of senior Aaron Johnson. But at least Ahmu has a few starts under his belt, even if it is just a few. The rest of the new faces, led by safeties Christian Bass, Xavier Hicks and linebacker Andy Mattingly, will all be making their starting debuts this weekend.
But the seeds of what we are seeing today were planted last year, when the WSU defense lost so many productive players. The Cougars lost five of their top seven tacklers from 2006, including all-conference safety Eric Frampton and all-conference defensive end Mkristo Bruce. They even lost starting corner Tyron Brackenridge, who was last seen scoring a touchdown for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. In other words, this defense was already a thin, inexperienced unit before they ever lined up for the 2007 season. When you look at everything as a whole, the results thus far aren't exactly a shock. But what it does show is that WSU has come up short in terms of recruiting defensive talent. A lot of painful lessons are surely on the horizon when you realize that ASU, Oregon, and Cal, along with their athletic, dynamic offenses, are still on the schedule. In other words, if you can fathom it, it's probably going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[RJ Esq]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=904 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=25 rowSpan=2>[SIZE=+3]Phil's Top 25 Forecast[/SIZE]
</TD><TD colSpan=5 rowSpan=2></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=74></TD><TD rowSpan=74><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=145 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=3></TD><TD vAlign=bottom colSpan=4>

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</TD><TD bgColor=#cccc99><SCRIPT language=javascript type=text/javascript><!--WriteDate(true);//--></SCRIPT>Friday, October 05, 2007</TD><TD vAlign=center colSpan=2>

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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD height=29></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=34></TD><TD height=6></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=24>Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Here are this weeks games involving Top 25 teams.*Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 pts!
</TD><TD colSpan=6></TD><TD height=129></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=34></TD><TD height=11></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=6></TD><TD colSpan=15 rowSpan=5>Wk of October 4th
</TD><TD colSpan=13 rowSpan=2></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=4 rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD rowSpan=2></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=12 rowSpan=2>

</TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=6 rowSpan=2></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=13></TD><TD height=14></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=34></TD><TD height=9></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=5 rowSpan=2>#1 vs #9
</TD><TD colSpan=26></TD><TD height=17></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=12></TD><TD colSpan=12 rowSpan=3>#2
</TD><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=33></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=20></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#9 Florida
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>95
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>175
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>21
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.3
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#1 LSU
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>180
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>270
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>37
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>1.5
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=10></TD><TD height=11></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=5></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=10></TD><TD colSpan=13 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Stanford
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>14
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>163
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>7
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.9
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#2 USC
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>262
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>293
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>45
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.1
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=38></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=20></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=4>The Tigers take over the #1 spot this week and will confirm to the AP voters that they made the right choice. It is tough to go against the defending national champs off a loss but Florida has a very young defense and this game is at night in Baton Rouge where LSU plays its best. Last year LSU had a 22-14 FD edge in the Swamp but let that game get away from them. This year LSU is stronger and the Gators are not as good as last years champs and this is in Death Valley. Call it loss #2 for the Gators.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #1 LSU 27 #9 Florida 20
</TD><TD colSpan=10></TD><TD height=12></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=10></TD><TD colSpan=13>Jim Harbaugh not only angered Michigan fans with some of his off season comments but surprisingly he also rattled Pete Carrolls cage. Now his Cardinal which has been blown out by each of its 3 Pac 10 foes take on a riled up USC team that just lost its number one spot and Stanford is without their starting QB. Hide the women and children.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #2 USC 51 Stanford 6
</TD><TD></TD><TD height=98></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=12></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=34></TD><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=19></TD><TD colSpan=11 rowSpan=2>#5
</TD><TD colSpan=4 rowSpan=2></TD><TD height=11></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=5 rowSpan=3>#4 vs #23
</TD><TD colSpan=10></TD><TD height=37></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=25></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=9></TD><TD colSpan=13 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#5 Wisconsin
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>158
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>188
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>22
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.9
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Illinois
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>243
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>198
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>29
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.5
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=18></TD><TD height=5></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#4 Ohio St
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>203
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>195
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>29
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.9
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#23 Purdue
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>77
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>280
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>22
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.0
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD height=41></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=23></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD colSpan=13 rowSpan=4>Last week probably set a record for the number of ranked teams that lost outright to non ranked teams. There are not that many potential ones this week but the Illini should at least make it one upset. Last year Illinois (which finished 2-10) went into Madison and led 21-3 in the 2Q and dropped a wide open TD pass with :04 left in the half settling for a FG and the Badgers rallied to pull out the win. Wisconsin has not looked good in any of the last 3 games and were almost beat by UNLV and Mich St. Now they are on the road and my computer calls for Illinois to have a 441-346 yard edge and win by 7. Last week Illinois was playing Penn St, a team they outplayed on the road last year and lost to and they got the win at home. History repeats itself with the same situation and result this week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ILLINOIS 27 #5 Wisconsin 17
</TD><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=4></TD><TD height=9></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=18></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8>This is the toughest game YTD for both teams and we will learn a lot about each. Ohio St is considered the favorite to win the Big 10 and Purdue is supposed to show that they are a product of a weak schedule. Keep in mind the last two weeks Purdue has led big (23-0 in 3Q vs ND) and then let up. This is a night home game and there will be no letup here and the last time OSU traveled to West Lafayette they were upset (2003). My computer gives the Bucks a 398-357 yard edge and a 7 point win but I think it will be closer than that and an outright upset would not surprise me. OSU did trail Washington at the half and were not as impressive as the score vs Minny.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #4 Ohio State 26 #23 PURDUE 23
</TD><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD height=168></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=18></TD><TD height=15></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=34></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=5 rowSpan=2>#6
</TD><TD colSpan=27></TD><TD height=19></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=9></TD><TD colSpan=11 rowSpan=3>#7
</TD><TD colSpan=7 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=29></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=16></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#6 USF
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>171
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>220
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>32
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.5
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Florida Atlantic
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>54
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>225
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>8
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.6
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=6></TD><TD height=15></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD colSpan=13 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Bowling Green
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>31
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>295
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>20
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.7
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#7 Boston Coll
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>189
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>320
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>38
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.1
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=4 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=35></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=17></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=4>The situation really favors Florida Atlantic as they beat a Big 10 team in their last home game and catch USF off their HUGE win over West Virginia and moving up to #6 in the polls. FAU should make a game of this but USF if one of the most talented teams in the NCAA and gets the road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #6 Usf 27 FLORIDA ATL 13
</TD><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD height=15></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD colSpan=13>BC has gone thru the motions the last two weeks vs a couple of cream puffs and BG usually plays well on the road vs BCS conference teams. Closer than expected.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #7 BOSTON COLL 37 Bowling Green 24
</TD><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD height=63></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=34></TD><TD height=12></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4 rowSpan=2></TD><TD colSpan=5 rowSpan=2>#8 vs #11
</TD><TD colSpan=25></TD><TD height=11></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD colSpan=11 rowSpan=3>#10 vs #19
</TD><TD colSpan=7 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=37></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=16></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#8 Kentucky
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>148
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>205
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>27
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>1.7
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#11 South Carolina
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>172
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>255
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>29
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.1
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=5></TD><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=23></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=13 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#10 Oklahoma
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>160
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>255
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>42
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.6
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#19 Texas
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>125
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>240
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>27
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.4
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=6 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=42></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=15></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3>Kentucky continues its run of good fortune and got past Arkansas despite being outgained 373-131 in the 1st half. This will be a big test for them. My computer calls for SC to have a 427-353 yard edge and escape with a 2 point win. I look for SC to prevail in a tight contest.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #11 SOUTH CAROLINA 31 #8 Kentucky 27
</TD><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=23></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=13 rowSpan=3>Oklahoma got up by 21 last week and started looking ahead to this game. Texas had not looked good their first 3 games and then were outplayed by a weaker Kansas St team at home despite playing with legitimate revenge. OU should move the ball well on a Texas D that has not looked anywhere near past editions.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #10 Oklahoma 42 #19 TEXAS 20
</TD><TD colSpan=6 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=72></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=15></TD><TD height=23></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=5 rowSpan=3>#12
</TD><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=26></TD><TD height=22></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD colSpan=10 rowSpan=3>#13
</TD><TD colSpan=9 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=23></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=15></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#12 Georgia
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>146
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>200
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>33
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.2
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Tennessee
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>139
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>270
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>30
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.1
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=5></TD><TD height=22></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=12 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#13 West Virginia
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>361
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>185
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>38
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.4
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Syracuse
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>39
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>210
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>13
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.2
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=28></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=14></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3>I picked the Bulldogs to win the SEC East at the start of the year and a win here would go a long way towards them achieving it. Richt is 23-3 SU in opposing SEC stadiums and has the better team. PHIL’S FORECAST: #12 Georgia 34 TENNESSEE 27
</TD><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD height=22></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=24></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=12 rowSpan=3>West Virginia is off a loss and Syracuse has played one good game all year. That game (their upset of Louisville) will only make sure that WV which has a bye next week comes in prepared. Even if it is backup QB Brown as the starter, they win big.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #13 West Virginia 49 SYRACUSE 10
</TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=37></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=14></TD><TD height=21></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=5 rowSpan=3>#15 vs #22
</TD><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD height=12></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=27></TD><TD height=34></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=6></TD><TD colSpan=10 rowSpan=4>#16
</TD><TD colSpan=11 rowSpan=4></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=13></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#15 Virginia Tech
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>92
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>98
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>13
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.4
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#22 Clemson
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>169
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>213
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>20
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>1.4
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=4 rowSpan=2></TD><TD height=28></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=16></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=25></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=12 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Utah St
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>107
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>135
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>16
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.1
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#16 Hawaii
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>113
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>460
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>52
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.9
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=10 rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=14></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=8 rowSpan=3>Clemson is off a misleading final vs GTech last week with FOUR missed FG’s including a miss after Clemson had a TD taken away for a personal foul away from the play. VT’s offense has struggled all year and has a true frosh QB making his first road start in a place VT has not played since 1998.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #22 CLEMSON 27 #15 Virginia Tech 10
</TD><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD height=42></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=25></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=12 rowSpan=2>Colt Brennan tossed 5 ints in his last game and will want some redemption. My computer says the Warriors roll up 460 pass yards.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #16 HAWAII 51 Utah St 14
</TD><TD colSpan=10 rowSpan=2></TD><TD height=38></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=14></TD><TD height=25></TD></TR><TR><TD width=3>

</TD><TD width=145>

</TD><TD width=9>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=270>

</TD><TD width=3>

</TD><TD width=70>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=24>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=3>

</TD><TD width=73>

</TD><TD width=4>

</TD><TD width=256>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=3>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=9 height=1>

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href="../NCAA%20Schedules/Future%20Schedules/futureschedulesf.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,278,65,288 href="../NCAA%20Schedules/Div%20IAA%20Schedules/conferencemain.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,264,125,277 href="../NCAA%20Schedules/Div%20IAA%20Schedules/conferencemain.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=9,236,111,249 href="../NCAA%20Schedules/2007weekbyweek.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,222,119,235 href="../NCAA%20Schedules/2007weekbyweek.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,194,65,204 href="../NCAA%20Schedules/ncaaschedules.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,179,115,192 href="../NCAA%20Schedules/ncaaschedules.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,149,136,159 href="../FBS%20Info/allconferencemai.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,135,130,145 href="../FBS%20Info/allconferencemai.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,105,132,118 href="top25main.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,76,119,89 href="../Misc%20Pages/phil'sweeklynote.html"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=11,47,99,57 href=" http://ncsports.websitegear.com"><AREA shape=RECT alt="" coords=13,0,78,13 href="http://www.philsteele.com"></MAP><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=904 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=7></TD><TD height=23></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=2></TD><TD rowSpan=2>#17 vs #25
</TD><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD height=19></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD rowSpan=3>#18
</TD><TD height=40></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=6></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#25 Nebraska
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>157
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>283
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>28
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.8
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#17 Missouri
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>209
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>353
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>39
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.4
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD height=7></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD height=5></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#18 Arizona St
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>175
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>293
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>41
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.2
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Washington St
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>126
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>318
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>24
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.6
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD height=42></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=5></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=4>After watching that Husker defense vs both Ball St and Iowa St, I have to feel that a potent Missouri offense will score early and often. At the start of the year I thought Missouri had the edge on offense and NU on defense but that is not the case as Missouri has the edge on both sides. Call it by the same score as the Huskers last two trips here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #17 MISSOURI 41 #25 Nebraska 24
</TD><TD></TD><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD colSpan=2>At the start of the year I said that Arizona St would be a surprise team and I projected an 8-0 start to their season. They have a top notch offense and defense and the Cougars are injury plagued once again and not playing with confidence.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #18 Arizona St 37 WASHINGTON ST 23
</TD><TD height=70></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD height=16></TD></TR><TR><TD width=157>

</TD><TD width=1>

</TD><TD width=345>

</TD><TD width=2>

</TD><TD width=24>

</TD><TD width=3>

</TD><TD width=345>

</TD><TD width=27 height=1>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=904 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=8></TD><TD height=20></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2 rowSpan=2></TD><TD rowSpan=2>#20
</TD><TD colSpan=5></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=3></TD><TD rowSpan=3>#24
</TD><TD rowSpan=3></TD><TD height=44></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=6></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=3></TD><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#20 Cincinnati
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>135
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>208
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>31
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.7
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#21 Rutgers
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>131
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>258
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>24
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.4
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD colSpan=2></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD height=3></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=3><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=12>

</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Rushing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Yds Passing
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Points
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=53>Turn Overs
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>Kansas
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>108
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>230
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>25
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>3.0
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=124 height=17>#24 Kansas St
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>142
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>230
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>29
</TD><TD vAlign=center width=53>2.6
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD height=48></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=5></TD><TD height=4></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD rowSpan=4></TD><TD colSpan=3 rowSpan=4>Cincy sure impressed me last week in a tough situation. I thought Maryland had a good shot at upsetting Rutgers and they did. This week Rutgers plays their “A” game and they get Cincy off a game that ended at 1:30 AM on Saturday flying back to the East Coast and traveling again. Last year Cincy had Rutgers in a great spot off their HUGE upset of Louisville and Rutgers is playing with legitimate revenge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #21 RUTGERS 30 #20 Cincinnati 20

</TD><TD></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD colSpan=4></TD><TD height=2></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD colSpan=3>I thought Texas would destroy Kansas St last week but came away impressed with the Wildcats in their road upset. Kansas is 4-0 off a bye and outscoring teams 48-12 with the NCAA’s #3 offense and #3 defense. I do not rate them in the top 20 of either catergory as the stats were compiled vs a creampuff schedule and none of the Kansas starters has even played in the 4Q of any of their games. KSt should have beaten Auburn on the road and beat Texas and get the home win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #24 KANSAS ST 27 Kansas 20
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[RJ Esq]

Charges Dropped: Tony Joiner to Travel, Probably Play for Gators vs. LSU

Posted Oct 5th 2007 2:55PM by Andy Katzer
Filed under: Florida Football, LSU Football, SEC

It's a Festivus miracle! 100% shenanigan-free!

It's been a wild week for Florida safety Tony Joiner. On Monday, he was charged with felony counts of burglary after trying to "recover" his girlfriend's car from an impound lot. He spent the entire week with his status as a Florida football player in limbo. As recently as Friday morning, coach Urban Meyer proclaimed it "safe to say" Joiner wouldn't be in Florida's lineup Saturday against #1 LSU:

"If we don't hear anything than the term 'felony,' I don't know if I've ever had a guy have a felony charge and actually go through with it," Meyer said. "If the charge that I've heard stays, then he will not play."
​

Then suddenly Friday afternoon, Florida's State Attorney's Office announced that charges against Joiner had been dropped:

"The victim is adamant that he sustained no loss or damage and does not wish to pursue criminal charges," said State Attorney's Office spokesman Spencer Mann. "Based on this information, we cannot sustain a criminal charge."​

Meyer also said that Joiner has been stripped of his captain's status, but would travel with the team to Baton Rouge:

"Tony being out late on Monday is not consistent with the expectations of a leader and a team captain of our football program," Meyer said. "Tony is no longer a captain of the Gator football team and he will pay a heavy price for his behavior internally for the next four weeks. He will travel with the team for our game vs. LSU."​

And it's not like he's going to travel with the team and not play. Now, I'm just wondering aloud here, but it can't hurt that the owner of the impound lot, Stan Forron, is a Gator fan, can it? On Tuesday, Forron said:

"I'm a Gator fan, but I'm also a right and wrong fan, too. What the kid did is wrong, but does it warrant a second-degree felony charge? Not even close."​

Of course not, and if LSU's Glenn Dorsey had broken into Forron's impound lot, I'm sure charges would have been dropped in time for the game Saturday, too. Right? Right.

 

[RJ Esq]

FRIDAY QUARTERBACK
By SMQ
Posted on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 07:08:08 PM EDT
</I>


A weekly primer.
- - -
Trying something different Saturday: an open thread. I’m not the biggest pusher of community or forums, but a gameday presence on the site can be nothing but positive, even if the initial participation isn’t smashing records. We’ll grow it over time. (Not that readers shouldn’t try to break records. Absolutely, by all means, do. Set your mind to become the Maris of open threads at SMQ). Feel free to come by during the games and drop your thoughts, and stay a while to see what other people are thinking, and call them idiots. It’s already a weekly tradition at the best team-specific sites, and we can rock it just as hard and just as insulting here at SMQ. If not harder. And vulgarer. All hail the open thread.
Onwards...
Finall, We’ll Learn About...
- - -
I wrote Wednesday about the “prove it” weekend on tap for four undefeated question marks: Purdue, Cincinnati, Kansas and Missouri each have a game with a ranked conference opponent to atone for the weak sisters of September. Missouri got by Illinois when the Illini was missing its starting quarterback, and otherwise the trophy case here is a barren one. More on each game below.

Fulmer: also shot, if Tennessee falls to 0-3.
- - -
Most to Gain
- - -
Purdue and Illinois are coming from slightly different places – I criticize Purdue for its lack of anything like a big win over the last three years, but at least they’ve, you know, won some – but they’re headed to the same rare, monumental place if they can manage wins in home games against the Big Ten’s current gatekeepers, Ohio State and Wisconsin. That magical land: the top of the standings.

Most to Lose
- - -
Florida and Tennessee are on opposite ends of the SEC East right now, but both are facing must-win games: the Gators for their chance not only of remaining alive for another shot at the mythical championship, but, with one conference loss already, also staying out of the corner where the SEC East is concerned. Tennessee, meanwhile, just wants to hang on to decent bowl hopes, which are shot if Georgia drops the Vols to 0-3 in the conference.
...AND ALL THE CHILDREN LEARNED TO MULTIPLY BY SEVEN...
In the miserable realm of blowouts and other morbid curiosities.
- - -
Inevitable Massacre of the Week, in conjunction with the Walk of Shame
USC-Stanford is the highest line (the Cardinal are getting 38.5, which might be generous, all things considered), but we’re nothing if not economical here at SMQ, so this week’s grisly approximation of inhumane civilian massacre is joined with the weekly “Walk of Shame,” where Arkansas goes for scheduling Chattanooga, the only I-AA team on any serious Bowl Subdivision schedule Saturday. You may know the Mocs from the Championship Subdivision’s 101st-ranked run defense, one that allowed 468 total yards and 41 points last week to The Citadel at the same time Arkansas was logging 446 on the ground against North Texas. North Texas and Chattanooga back-to-back? Double the massacre, double the shame, then triple it if the Hogs can’t remember what a real opponent looks like by the time Auburn comes in looking to drop them to 0-3 in the SEC next week.
Buffalo Line Watch
Since it joined Division I-A in 1999, Buffalo has been favored to win just once, against Temple to open the 2006 season. This week, after allowing 6.1 per carry in a 49-14 home loss to Ball State, the Bulls are 4.5-point underdogs at home against Ohio U. of Ohio.
Lame Game of the Week
The worst, Jerry.
- - -
North Texas at UL-Lafayette will be broadcast on ESPN Gameplan and a variety of local networks from an undisclosed location across the street my aunt and uncle’s house, and I encourage everyone to consider watching it. A fan of a much larger, richer program told me this week, “I like talking to fans of Southern Miss, because it helps me keep in perspective how good we have it.” I can’t argue with that, along the same lines, I couldn’t recommend any game that would send a stronger wake-up call to your relative prosperity than the Sun Belt showdown between ULL and UNT, the starving African children of the “big time” college football world:
<TABLE cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TR style="BACKGROUND: #b75b5b"><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>UNT</TD><TD align=middle>ULL</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Record</TD><TD align=middle>0-4</TD><TD align=middle>0-5</TD></TR><TR><TR style="BACKGROUND: #eaeaea"><TD align=right>Avg. Margin of Defeat</TD><TD align=middle>38 pts.</TD><TD align=middle>16.4 pts.</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Closest Loss</TD><TD align=middle>30-20 (Fla. Atl.)</TD><TD align=middle>31-23 (Ohio U.)</TD></TR><TR><TR style="BACKGROUND: #eaeaea"><TD align=right>Worst Loss</TD><TD align=middle>79-10 (Okla.)</TD><TD align=middle>37-19 (UCF)</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Avg. Stat Rank*</TD><TD align=middle>93.5</TD><TD align=middle>85.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
* - NCAA avg. of 8 major categories (run, pass, total, scoring offense/defense)
- - -
It’s a contrast of styles: North Texas does rank ninth in the country in passing offense at 330 yards per game, and Lafayette is ninth in rushing offense. And both offenses will succeed; UNT is dead last nationally at 55 points and 580 yards allowed, 70 yards more per game than the worst season-long defensive effort of the decade (Louisiana Tech, 2003). Keep reaching for the stars, guys.
WE CAN REBUILD. WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY.
Bouncing back.
- - -
• Michigan State: Once you’ve come from 31 points down to beat a team on the road, that team is forever your bitch. Which would probably describe Northwestern’s fate in East Lansing, anyway.
• West Virginia: Oh, Syracuse. Oh...oh, my god, I am so sorry.
• Ole Miss: Breather against Louisiana Tech gets a few notches on the energy meter before a long, inevitable stretch of SEC-inflicted pain.
• Mississippi State: I wouldn’t have considered UAB automatic for the Bulldogs at the start of the season, but beat Auburn, however flimsy the pretext, and C-USA doormats slide into the ‘patsy’ column. Them’s the rules, and hell if my ignorance of the name of MSU’ starting quarterback is going to undermine the whole system. Upwards...

The fateful night of the Tebow Child is at hand.
- - -
GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE YEAR!
Florida at LSU
- - -
What’s at Stake: Lives, although I don’t know of any specifically. But I’ve lived in South Louisiana and spent virtually my entire life in “SEC Country,” and I have no doubt this is true. There is SEC dominance, and labrynthine mythical championship implications, as discussed elsewhere, and the ghost of Harry Lee must be avenged! Florida Wants: I usually prescribe a slow-down, possession-oriented game for underdogs (LSU is favored by nine), the kind Auburn executed to perfection against the Gators last week, but Florida is a fast, big play-oriented team and wants to be able to get its athletes in space, not pound away in the trenches, where LSU is likely to have its biggest advantage. It’s guaranteed you’ll hear an awful lot about the speed of both teams, and certainly about the speed of LSU’s defense, but Florida is at heart a very good misdirection/draw/screen/reverse/bootleg team, the kind of attack that requires disciplined, assignment football to defend and can wreak havoc on defenses that overpursue or take a lot of risks. It will probably be tougher to establish Tebow here than in any other game in two years, but the longer he’s a viable threat to do damage inside as a runner, the whole offense will be open to attacking anywhere on the field. Percy Harvin will have to make plays as a runner or the Tigers will be swarming Tebow. The only other really special threat on the UF offense at the moment is Cornelius Ingram.

Defensively, I think the idea is easy: put the game on Matt Flynn. His ankle may not be 100 percent, and he hasn’t had to do anything except guide the ship with the lopsided success of the rest of the team.
LSU Wants: Easier said than done, with the Tigers’ offensive line. There was a hint against Tulane, of all teams, that LSU might have a little trouble with edge-rushing speed on obvious passing downs (who doesn’t?), but in general, the Tiger line was its usual overwhelming success. For the season, excluding Matt Flynn and Colt David, LSU is averaging a little more than 5.9 per carry behind a front that averages 316 pounds. There’s plenty of big-play ability at receiver, but patience in methodical, physical running against a defense with plenty of questions on its back still will open up downfield later.
Constants: The entire UF offense runs through Tebow and depends on him to be a quarterback and carry its power running game. The going against this version of the LSU defense will likely be the toughest of his career to date.
Variables: How will Florida’s front four hold up physically? How will Percy Harvin and Trindon Holliday be involved? It will be the first time either sleek, speeding bullet has faced such a blatant or effective doppelganger on the other side. Can either offense function for any length of time without them?
The Pick: I do see some potential in forcing Flynn or Ryan Perrilloux into mistakes by clamping down on the running game, creating predictable down-and-distance (i.e., third-and-long) and bringing some heat. LSU’s defense, though, is plainly the best in the country over the first month and has a better chance of corralling Tebow before he can do much damage downfield than Florida’s young defense does of consistently slowing LSU’s backs, whoever they are in any given situation. Physically, I have the idea that the Tigers’ lines will take control, try to drag the game down into the swamp and then sneak in a couple big plays to win at home. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>LSU 27</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Florida22</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Oklahoma vs. Texas
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If there is an intangible “it” of the variety that I try so diligently (and ineffectively) to avoid, Texas is yet to demonstrate it, and Oklahoma is in danger of losing it permanently after what I will call the Sooners’ worst loss since Oklahoma State in 2002 (OU has been blown out a couple times since, but every loss from 2003-06 save Onsidegate in Oregon was to a team that finished with at least ten wins or, in Texas Tech’s case in 2005 - another game that ended on a dubious call – at least a New Year’s Day berth. I don’t think that’s going to be the case with these Buffaloes). Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford were significantly outplayed by Josh Freeman and Cody Hawkins. “It” is missing from the Shootout for the first time since the earliest days of the Brown-Stoops era.
The Pick: As I said Thursday, even off two bad, conceivably debilitating losses, it’s better to bring some positive experiences to the table than to still be searching for your identity a month into the season, and even at 4-1, I don’t know what Texas is pointing to right now as a positive. Oklahoma, on the other hand, was counting everything as a plus this time a week ago. The Longhorns have better than a fighting chance with their run defense and an example, finally, of how to bring Bradford to earth. But am I willing to gamble on Colt McCoy right now against OU’s sixth-ranked, high-pressure defense? I am not. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Oklahoma 30</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Texas 19</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Georgia at Tennessee
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I admit, it was a little stunning to see Tennessee listed as a small favorite in this game, even at home, which goes to show how much further being smoked by two of the country’s five or six best teams can drop a team in some minds than in others. I’m still struggling with the Vols’ pass defense, which has been burned in three of four games, and their one-dimensionality on offense - that is, if Erik Ainge can be considered a dimension by himself. The running numbers are not good (75th nationally per game), and are actually inflated: against Cal and Florida, the Vols have averaged 74 yards on 3.1 per carry, and UGA’s defense has been a better all-around unit that either the Bears’ or Gators’. Ainge may do some damage if he has time, but if the Bulldogs settle down with Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown against the SEC’s worst statistical defense (9th against the run, 11th in total, dead last in pass efficiency and scoring D), the crowd is probably trending toward impatience and probably won’t be an issue. Mark Richt’s SEC road record, anyway: 18-4. That doesn’t include Florida, of course, but none of the losses include Tennessee, either. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Georgia 34</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Tennessee 23</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Gentlemen, set your phasers to ‘baffle.’
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Virginia Tech at Clemson
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I imagine it must be so incredibly frustrating to be a Clemson fan, to have talent like James Davis and C.J. Spiller in your possession, and come away with such maddening results. A gangbusters first half against Florida State melts into a tepid blob that oozes dangerously close to an epic choke job in the second; a dominant 340-yard rushing performance in a 42-20 rout over NC State one week gives way to a humbling 34-yard effort at Georgia Tech in a 13-3 loss the next. Immediately after Spiller and Davis broke out on the national stage last year against the Yellow Jackets in Clemson, they were run over and nearly shut out the following Thursday at Virginia Tech, a two-loss team on the brink of collapse at Boston College a couple weeks earlier. Bizarro property holds, then, that the Tigers are destined for a mirror image of their rout over Georgia Tech. If you’re not easily swayed by the ludicrous vagaries of superstition, there’s this: the Hokie offense is 112th in total yards per game and Tyrod Taylor is making his first road start. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Clemson 20</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Vrginia Tech 13</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Ohio State at Purdue
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I hate to keep carping on this, but Purdue deserves eternal skepticism until it beats a team with a pulse. The Boilers haven’t beaten a ranked team since 2003, and hadn’t beaten any team in the polls in years prior to that. The last “quality win” to its name is unranked Ohio State in 2004, in the earliest days of the Troy Smith era. Missing OSU and Michigan the last two years, Purdue has lost 12 straight to winning teams and last year scored three points in two weeks in consecutive losses against the only respectable defenses it faced (Penn State and Wisconsin). By all appearances, this team is better, and obviously still dangerous (and less mistake-prone, so far) on offense, but it doesn’t help matters that Ohio State has been playing with a ruthless consistency no one expected from a “rebuilding” unit, and no-hope Notre Dame broke out of its shell on offense last week in West Lafayette. Purdue may move the ball some, but it won’t stop Beanie Wells and I see no reason whatsoever the Boilers should be expected to win this game. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Ohio State 37</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Purdue 17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Wisconsin at Illinois
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Illinois is a favorite here, barely (-2.5), which makes sense if you’re operating under the assumption that Penn State is any good. Not so fast, my friend: Wisconsin gave up a bank vault of yardage to Michigan State, including some unseemly totals on the ground (Javon Ringer ran for 140 yards on 14 per carry, a disgrace) that Rashard Mendenhall could easily replicate. I’m not a fan on one-dimensionality, though, and if any offense is that, it’s Illinois’: sixth nationally in rushing, 108th in passing. Then again, there’s Arrelious Benn. Then again, it’s Illinois. Juice Williams and Ron Zook against a coach who’s 17-1 in his career. Then again, who can deny Wisconsin’s blatant deficit against the run, clearly the Illini strength? Am I? I’m not...really? No. I can’t...god help me. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Illinois 31</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Wisconsin 29</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Nebraska at Missouri
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Missouri is a thoroughly average team in my mind, no matter the year, destined for 4-4 and second place at best in the Big 12 North at best until it actually accomplishes something more. That doesn’t hold for beating Nebraska, though: the Tigers have taken two straight from the Huskers in Columbia, and catch them at the right time, with a defense that couldn’t stop Wake Forest or Ball State and was most recently outgained (significantly: 415-369) by Iowa State in a turnover-aided win. Nebraska is currently ninety-second against the run, which, against Chase Daniel and Tony Temple, is pretty strong recommendation on the application for also-ran status. If they’re not already there, I mean. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Missouri 34</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Nebraska 28</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Kansas at Kansas State
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There is no functional difference between Kansas and Purdue, who have played and destroyed the same pair of teams from the MAC (Central Michigan and Toledo) by roughly equal margins. The Jayhawks are playing better defense, though, for what it’s worth against a schedule that’s 3-11 to date against the rest of the Bowl Subdivision, and if Kansas State is clearly on the rise, it doesn’t have the aura of the inpenetrable fortress Ohio State is constructing around itself. Kansas has beaten the holy hell out of the softest September schedule in the country, but what is that worth? Where is the scale? Is that adequate for scrapping the summer projections of mediocrity? The Jayhawks have the potential to make skeptics look foolish, I think, but until further notice, there aren’t enough creampuffs in the MAC to put next to a three-touchdown win in Austin. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Kansas State 35</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Kansas 27</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Cincinnati at Rutgers
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The Bearcats are the fourth in a row of unbeaten, untested teams I have no idea what to think of, though they’ve been terrific on the stat sheet. What bothers me most about UC, actually, is one of the elements it’s proven best at: turnover margin. Cincinnati is number one in the nation so far, but is that necessarily a positive if opposing offenses are still moving the ball? Rutgers comes in a much more balanced offense than it was a year ago, when Mike Teel threw four picks in an embarrassing, streak-breaking loss in Cincinnati. Since that game, the Knights have opened up the offense and Teel has nearly doubled his production over the first eight games of last season. If Rutgers hadn’t somehow fallen last week to Maryland, I wouldn’t think twice about pulling the trigger here, but even with that disappointment, Ray Rice is an ace Cincinnati won’t be able to trump without sacrificing too much to an improved, big play passing game. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Rutgers 26</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Cincinnati 20</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Iowa at Penn State
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I questioned Penn State earlier, and rightly, I think, but Iowa’s offense has been a true disaster:

Iowa, huh? That’s JoPa’s kinda team.
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vs. Northern Illinois: 16 points
vs. Syracuse: 35 points
at Iowa State: 13 points (loss)
at Wisconsin: 13 points (loss)
vs. Indiana: 20 points (loss)

The defense was giving up an average of about nine per game before coming unravelled against the Hoosiers, and there couldn’t be a team more willing to get into the kind of solemn, hearty punt-fest that led to the infamous 6-4 game the last time PSU and Iowa played. If there’s going to be any more offense than that, it won’t be much. And both, teams, honestly, are probably cool with that. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Penn State 9</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Iowa 7</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Georgia Tech at Maryland
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You have to pay attention to these teams, because both have winning records, even if neither of them interests you in the slightest. Both stormed out last week with big, surprising home wins that will serve as a catalyst for the winner here. As their first turn in fortune coincided with his departure from the every-down lineup, and immediately flipped back upon Tashard Choice’s return, I think that will be the Yellow Jackets. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Georgia Tech 18</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Maryland 13</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
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I’m writing a screenplay for a feature-length film on the coaching meltdowns here over the last two weeks, a hilarious and heartbreaking tale that turns on the dramatic, trick play finish in College Station. Oklahoma State lost at Troy, which I’m going to go ahead and take as a sign of a bad road team, among other things. I’m not anxious to vouch for Texas A&M, bu the Aggies are at home, where they typically play well, and are playing better defense. Jorvorskie Lane would actually like some touches, por favor. <TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD><TD>Texas A&M 35</TD><TD>•</TD><TD>Oklahoma State 31</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Remember: weekly thread. Sturday. Rawked. Visualize it, and it's already happened.

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[Aztec4Life]

RJ! I'm on your Longhorns this week, bro! Moneyline, Texas +400!

More of a value play for me, but I do feel that Texas is good enough to beat OU. I love how nobody in the media is giving them any kind of shot to win the game. That's just more reason to play with a chip on your shoulder. Both teams are coming off devastating losses, but we all know Texas has it's struggles against K. State. Perhaps Oklahoma will be a little more hungover from it's loss to the Buffaloes?

GL this week bud!

:smiley_acbe:

 

[RJ Esq]

Thanks, Aztec. I'm hoping to god that Texas wins this one.

Austin Scott Could Be in a Lot of Trouble

Posted Oct 5th 2007 8:48PM by Brian Cook
Filed under: Penn State Football, Big 10, Breaking News

FightOnState, Scout.com Penn State site, is reporting that Austin Scott will not play tomorrow:

Multiple sources have informed FOS that senior tailback Austin Scott will not play against Iowa tomorrow.

Fight On State will post additional information as it becomes available and is confirmed by reliable sources.
​

Meanwhile, Run Up The Score reports that local television is, uh, reporting...

According to the WJAC-TV, police are investigating a Penn State football player regarding a sexual assault reported early Friday morning on the Penn State campus.​

This would be bad for Scott, the potential victim, Penn State, and the Big Ten, which could do without multiple sexual assault cases levied against its players in a single year. Insert very serious "if, in fact, these two events are connected" here. Insert SEC crowing about that Jim Delany open letter here. Insert end of post here.

 

[RJ Esq]

Working on the remainder of my plays right now.

Let's go ahead with #5:

Adding:

Bowling Green (+20) (-110)

BC has been struggling and they need to play harder to get up to game speed for the 2nd half of their season. But they face a BGSU team that plays BCS teams surprisingly close and rarely lose by 3+ scores. BC also has a huge look ahead next week as they travel to non-conference rival Notre Dame.

Bowling Green and BC blogs (as well as Phil Steele) think this one is decided by 10-14 points. I wanted 21 but it won't happen. Hopefully 20 is enough.

 

[RJ Esq]

Added:

Ohio State -7 (-103)
Mizzou -6 (-103)

 

[RJ Esq]

Added:

WVU -26.5 (-107)

 

[RJ Esq]

Adding:

Notre Dame +22 (-104)