Week 5 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Every time I write out the title to this thread each week, I get a little melancholy. This is already week 5? 7 hours ago (it seems) we were counting down the days to week 0, and here we are a more than a third through the season after this week finishes. Time flies, especially when you're getting old.

Last week was a good week, and we caught a couple breaks along the way. 8-3-2 for the week, which brings the season total to 30-20-2. My goal is always 60%, and over the course of a full year I've only gotten there a handful of times in my gambling life, but at least it's still a possibility at this point.

I think I'm probably one of only a few people in the whole country who, prior to this past week, had a pretty much neutral position on Ohio State. Since Ohio State has been so dominant, teams like that usually trigger people one way or another...you either love them or hate them, and the better your team gets, those not among the home fanbase drift to the "hate" side more often than not. I've never had a negative view of Ohio State(or really Michigan for that matter). The Buckeyes have been elite in the Big Ten(my home conference) for going on 2 decades and although some of their coaches have seemed to me to be a bit sketchy, I've never seen any of their players as unlikable. After last week, that has changed. That postgame display by that low life, low caliber, contemptible slob rodent Ryan Day has made me join the ranks of the Ohio State strong dislikers, and I have no interest in transforming into that. I don't want to care about Ohio State because it's likely a losing proposition, but I have no choice because he unleashed an involuntary feeling that I'll just have to deal with. About a thousand people have already chimed in on this so I'll spare everyone the specifics(and I haven't read other threads on the board yet in order to avoid being influenced before I get my thoughts down). I just can't fathom how a coach, after THAT game and a win THAT big is compelled, before he says a single word about his quarterback , or All-American wide receivers or the thousands of Buckeye fans who forced their way into Notre Dame Stadium to aggressively attack an 85 year old man clearly suffering from dementia who is in the tank for his opponent, who merely pointed out several true things about his program. Only a person who is 100% worried about himself would be so incensed about the comments Holtz made. As we all know, if you call a skinny guy fat, it doesn't piss him off. But call a former skinny guy fat, who also happens to have been born on third base and thinks he hit a triple, you'll have a you'll have a seething maniac who looks like he just crawled out of the sewer. The worst part was his framing his reaction as him defending his guys. Bullshot. He was defending himself, and he did it so vehemently because he knew it was true, and the softness of that team was on display the whole second half. The only reason he could gloat afterwards was because Notre Dame blew that game about 3 different ways in the last 2 minutes. Henceforth, Ryan Day can commence to having relations with himself.

ok....on to the week.

MTSU +6 LOSS
Oregon State -3 WIN
Syracuse +7 LOSS
Tulane -21.5 LOSS
Colorado +21.5 WIN
Old Dominion +14 WIN
UCF -11.5 LOSS
Purdue +1 WIN
Nebraska +17.5 LOSS
Iowa State +19.5 LOSS
Duke +6 LOSS
Pitt -2.5 LOSS
TCU -13 LOSS


4-9

1. Middle Tennessee State +6 @Western Kentucky(Thursday): Gonna have a couple weeknight games this week, so we'll see if this is the last week of the paused moratorium on weeknight games. Looking at this game, I think the Hilltoppers are overvalued, and I guess I can see why. WKU few years been extremely good in the passing game since Tyson Helton talked Zack Kittley and Bailey Zappe into joining him from the FCS ranks, and they lit the world on fire in 2021. Last year, Austin Reed did more of the same, taking advantage of some high octane residue from the previous year. Reed made some news when he decided to stay at WKU when he clearly could have moved on to a power 5 gig for more NIL money than the WKU booster club mustered up for him. I think the assumption is that this is a big time Hilltopper offense, and this week they are playing a Middle Tennessee team that disappointed a lot of bettors who assumed a major letdown spot for Colorado State last week. In actuality, I have this game pegged as a complete standstill statistically, and Reed hasn't really lit the world on fire so far this year. He;s averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, and if you take out his performance against Houston Baptist, he barely over 6.0 yards per attempt. I realize Ohio State was one of his games, but that game was relegated to garbage time almost immediately, and Reed still didn't get much done against the 2nd and 3rd string of the Buckeyes. Defensively, WKU is not good, and Troy's passing game, who previously could only be described as "challenged" proved that last week when Gunnar Watson threw for 349 yards and 10 yards per attempt. This was after USF torched them for 550 yards, and that was a game in which USF was employing a new QB in the first game of a new coach's system, on the road. MTSU has played a very good schedule, having dealt with Alabama and Missouri in addition to Colorado State last week. Defensively, the Blue Raiders have held their own, giving up only 312 on the road at Missouri. Ultimately, I think this is a game between two teams that are pretty evenly matched , so I'm grabbing the 6. It was 8 earlier in the week, but I still like it at 6, and if you look hard enough and have some patience, you might be able to find a better number.

MTSU stunk all night and had chances to cover because WKU isn't much good either. Blah blah blah whatever. Bad bet.
 
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2. @Oregon State -3(-116) v Utah(Friday): I've known that I was going to be on the Beavs pretty much as soon as the number for their game against Washington State came out and they were favored. We are going from the only scenario that Jonathan Smith and the Beavers struggle mightily with(road favorite) and moving into their best possible spot(home favorite). Since 2019, Smith and the Beavers are 11-2 ATS as a home favorite, and 32-16 ATS overall, the best mark in the country over that span. They are also coming off a straight up loss and a non-cover in their last home game, so this shapes up to be a great spot for them, especially since Utah is fat, happy and undefeated and unlikely to be playing with the same level of urgency that Oregon State will. The Beavs still fancy themselves as Pac 12 contenders, and I don't doubt that they are. Utah won this game in Salt Lake last year 42-16, but that was a game that played out nowhere near that lopsided, and I'm sure the Beavers will be eager to make amends. Despite outgaining and out first downing Utah in that game, they lost by 26 points largely because QB Ben Gulbranson threw 4 picks. This year, Utah has been very good defensively, but they'll be facing an offense much better than what they've seen so far, so their own offense won't be able to sputter and wheeze through this game they way they have for the most part this year and hope their defense bails them out. This is probably going to be true even if Cam Rising plays, and I'm done trying to figure out if he will or won't. He's coming off an ACL injury, so that means about a 9 month recovery, which is about now. If he starts this game, it would be about the worst possible place and spot to get introduced to competition for the first time in 10 months. Defensively, OSU got torched by downfield throws by Cam Ward in Pullman last week, but Utah's offense is much less capable of doing that than Wazzou, and especially is Rising is still out or limited. Asking Utah to be in this game until it's last breath is asking a lot giving the situations these two teams or coming off of. I'll trust Jonathan Smith to get it done here in a spot that really favors him.

Got this one right. With no Rising, it wasn't much of a game.
 
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3. @Syracuse +7(-120) v Clemson: My guess is that there will be a ton of people on this side this week, but that's not going to scare me off. I allowed that scenario to scare me off an Arkansas side that was never in doubt, so I don't want to make that mistake again. It looks like you'll have to buy it up to 7, but it's accessible, so I would do it. There are a ton of reasons to side with the Orange here. First off, I think Clemson played their absolute A game last week. The outplayed FSU in my opinion, and I was lucky to cash that ticket on FSU. But the things that had me on FSU, namely the black cloud that seems to be hanging over Dabo as well as Cade Klubnik's penchant for disastrous turnovers were indeed in evidence last week and led to the loss. Now Clemson's entire season is pretty much out the window. At 2 losses, they have very little shot at the playoff, and since both losses are conference losses, they are a huge underdog to even make the ACC title game, since they'll have to win out and root for Duke to lose 3 games to even have a chance at making it. I think it's very unlikely that Clemson will be able to muster up another A game, even if they were playing a patsy, and they are definitely not playing a patsy here. Before the season, I was a little worried about Syracuse's offense because they lost Robert Anae to NC State. Anae had coordinated some solid offenses for Brennan Armstrong at Virginia, and made a big difference last year at Syracuse. When NC State grabbed Anae, Syracuse promoted Anae protege Jason Beck, who had been with Anae since 2013 at BYU. It now appears that Beck may have been the brains behind the operation the entire time, because Garrett Schrader and the Orange offense looks just as good if not better than last year while Anae's offense at NC State looks very pedestrian despite being reunited with his QB Armstrong. How could that be? There are whispers that Syracuse wasn't heartbroken to see Anae go when they knew that had Beck to step in. Dino Babers also made a slam dunk choice to coax Rocky Long into coming East to coordinate his defense. All Long has done as a DC and Head Coach over the years is produce high level defenses, and defenses that are hard to prepare for or figure out on game day. I suspect Syracuse will have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball, and this group is certainly not intimidated by Clemson as they've beaten them twice in the past 8-10 years and have hung with them consistently. I'll be very surprised if Syracuse doesn't give Clemson their best shot, and I'm skeptical that Clemson can handle it in it's current state.

Early turnovers derailed this, but Rocky Long might want to have some meetings because his defense wasn't up to snuff. Kudos to Klubnik, he made a variety of good throws.
 
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gutsy playing MTSU. they look horrific, and are horrific. big rivalry with WKU, but its a tale of two teams heading down vastly different paths in my opinion. hard to think middle tenn can keep up with how badly their offense has played lately
 
agree on day and the oregon state play........on other side of clemson, i think all things equal clemson is far superior. Dabo seems like a rally the troops through adversity type of guy, but shall see
 
steponaduck said:
gutsy playing MTSU. they look horrific, and are horrific. big rivalry with WKU, but its a tale of two teams heading down vastly different paths in my opinion. hard to think middle tenn can keep up with how badly their offense has played lately
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I appreciate “gutsy” instead of some of the other words you could have used for that play. It could definitely spark a renewed weeknight moratorium.
 
EL CAPO said:
agree on day and the oregon state play........on other side of clemson, i think all things equal clemson is far superior. Dabo seems like a rally the troops through adversity type of guy, but shall see
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Same here. I’ll be on beavs but for me it clemson, props, or cuse tt under, havnt quite decided yet.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I admit I’ve always liked Lou Holtz. Might have contributed.
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I'm a big OSU fan and was way put off by Day's comments Saturday night. Took a lot of joy out of a great moment when pretty much anything else (Trayanum, McCord, Egbuka, JTT's late play on the screen, the defense in general, gratitude for getting a big win in a great atmosphere) should've been the focus.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I'm a big OSU fan and was way put off by Day's comments Saturday night. Took a lot of joy out of a great moment when pretty much anything else (Trayanum, McCord, Egbuka, JTT's late play on the screen, the defense in general, gratitude for getting a big win in a great atmosphere) should've been the focus.
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I understand he was upset.

With that being said, focus on your players and staff in that moment.

I get it. That's one of the most difficult coaching spots in all of sports. The amount of pressure on his shoulders for the next two months is enormous enough.

That wasn't the time of place. Wait till your local coaches show.

Again, the big issue is, Lou is old and senile (although, again, he seems more lucid than 20 years ago). That's a no win situation for Day.

At least we were afforded some good content out of it.
 
Love a good verbal beatdown of Lou by anyone but at this point it's like fishing with dynamite, like railing on Corso
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Syracuse +7(-120) v Clemson: My guess is that there will be a ton of people on this side this week, but that's not going to scare me off. I allowed that scenario to scare me off an Arkansas side that was never in doubt, so I don't want to make that mistake again. It looks like you'll have to buy it up to 7, but it's accessible, so I would do it. There are a ton of reasons to side with the Orange here. First off, I think Clemson played their absolute A game last week. The outplayed FSU in my opinion, and I was lucky to cash that ticket on FSU. But the things that had me on FSU, namely the black cloud that seems to be hanging over Dabo as well as Cade Klubnik's penchant for disastrous turnovers were indeed in evidence last week and led to the loss. Now Clemson's entire season is pretty much out the window. At 2 losses, they have very little shot at the playoff, and since both losses are conference losses, they are a huge underdog to even make the ACC title game, since they'll have to win out and root for Duke to lose 3 games to even have a chance at making it. I think it's very unlikely that Clemson will be able to muster up another A game, even if they were playing a patsy, and they are definitely not playing a patsy here. Before the season, I was a little worried about Syracuse's offense because they lost Robert Anae to NC State. Anae had coordinated some solid offenses for Brennan Armstrong at Virginia, and made a big difference last year at Syracuse. When NC State grabbed Anae, Syracuse promoted Anae protege Jason Beck, who had been with Anae since 2013 at BYU. It now appears that Beck may have been the brains behind the operation the entire time, because Garrett Schrader and the Orange offense looks just as good if not better than last year while Anae's offense at NC State looks very pedestrian despite being reunited with his QB Armstrong. How could that be? There are whispers that Syracuse wasn't heartbroken to see Anae go when they knew that had Beck to step in. Dino Babers also made a slam dunk choice to coax Rocky Long into coming East to coordinate his defense. All Long has done as a DC and Head Coach over the years is produce high level defenses, and defenses that are hard to prepare for or figure out on game day. I suspect Syracuse will have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball, and this group is certainly not intimidated by Clemson as they've beaten them twice in the past 8-10 years and have hung with them consistently. I'll be very surprised if Syracuse doesn't give Clemson their best shot, and I'm skeptical that Clemson can handle it in it's current state.
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That Rocky Long move is big. The guy produces everywhere he goes.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Syracuse +7(-120) v Clemson: My guess is that there will be a ton of people on this side this week, but that's not going to scare me off. I allowed that scenario to scare me off an Arkansas side that was never in doubt, so I don't want to make that mistake again. It looks like you'll have to buy it up to 7, but it's accessible, so I would do it. There are a ton of reasons to side with the Orange here. First off, I think Clemson played their absolute A game last week. The outplayed FSU in my opinion, and I was lucky to cash that ticket on FSU. But the things that had me on FSU, namely the black cloud that seems to be hanging over Dabo as well as Cade Klubnik's penchant for disastrous turnovers were indeed in evidence last week and led to the loss. Now Clemson's entire season is pretty much out the window. At 2 losses, they have very little shot at the playoff, and since both losses are conference losses, they are a huge underdog to even make the ACC title game, since they'll have to win out and root for Duke to lose 3 games to even have a chance at making it. I think it's very unlikely that Clemson will be able to muster up another A game, even if they were playing a patsy, and they are definitely not playing a patsy here. Before the season, I was a little worried about Syracuse's offense because they lost Robert Anae to NC State. Anae had coordinated some solid offenses for Brennan Armstrong at Virginia, and made a big difference last year at Syracuse. When NC State grabbed Anae, Syracuse promoted Anae protege Jason Beck, who had been with Anae since 2013 at BYU. It now appears that Beck may have been the brains behind the operation the entire time, because Garrett Schrader and the Orange offense looks just as good if not better than last year while Anae's offense at NC State looks very pedestrian despite being reunited with his QB Armstrong. How could that be? There are whispers that Syracuse wasn't heartbroken to see Anae go when they knew that had Beck to step in. Dino Babers also made a slam dunk choice to coax Rocky Long into coming East to coordinate his defense. All Long has done as a DC and Head Coach over the years is produce high level defenses, and defenses that are hard to prepare for or figure out on game day. I suspect Syracuse will have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball, and this group is certainly not intimidated by Clemson as they've beaten them twice in the past 8-10 years and have hung with them consistently. I'll be very surprised if Syracuse doesn't give Clemson their best shot, and I'm skeptical that Clemson can handle it in it's current state.
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My favorite write up so far this week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I admit I’ve always liked Lou Holtz.
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Same. He's always been just a funny old guy to me and a great personality for the game.

This one for whatever bizarre reason got a little too personal and went a bit too far and should be reigned back in at this point.

I wasn't aware of any specific dementia issues with him other than the usual old guy stuff. I really don't know.

This is all pretty stupid and trivial in the grand scheme of things and I think that's my bigger point.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. @Syracuse +7(-120) v Clemson: My guess is that there will be a ton of people on this side this week, but that's not going to scare me off. I allowed that scenario to scare me off an Arkansas side that was never in doubt, so I don't want to make that mistake again. It looks like you'll have to buy it up to 7, but it's accessible, so I would do it. There are a ton of reasons to side with the Orange here. First off, I think Clemson played their absolute A game last week. The outplayed FSU in my opinion, and I was lucky to cash that ticket on FSU. But the things that had me on FSU, namely the black cloud that seems to be hanging over Dabo as well as Cade Klubnik's penchant for disastrous turnovers were indeed in evidence last week and led to the loss. Now Clemson's entire season is pretty much out the window. At 2 losses, they have very little shot at the playoff, and since both losses are conference losses, they are a huge underdog to even make the ACC title game, since they'll have to win out and root for Duke to lose 3 games to even have a chance at making it. I think it's very unlikely that Clemson will be able to muster up another A game, even if they were playing a patsy, and they are definitely not playing a patsy here. Before the season, I was a little worried about Syracuse's offense because they lost Robert Anae to NC State. Anae had coordinated some solid offenses for Brennan Armstrong at Virginia, and made a big difference last year at Syracuse. When NC State grabbed Anae, Syracuse promoted Anae protege Jason Beck, who had been with Anae since 2013 at BYU. It now appears that Beck may have been the brains behind the operation the entire time, because Garrett Schrader and the Orange offense looks just as good if not better than last year while Anae's offense at NC State looks very pedestrian despite being reunited with his QB Armstrong. How could that be? There are whispers that Syracuse wasn't heartbroken to see Anae go when they knew that had Beck to step in. Dino Babers also made a slam dunk choice to coax Rocky Long into coming East to coordinate his defense. All Long has done as a DC and Head Coach over the years is produce high level defenses, and defenses that are hard to prepare for or figure out on game day. I suspect Syracuse will have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball, and this group is certainly not intimidated by Clemson as they've beaten them twice in the past 8-10 years and have hung with them consistently. I'll be very surprised if Syracuse doesn't give Clemson their best shot, and I'm skeptical that Clemson can handle it in it's current state.
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Great write up as always bro, has def given me some things to think about with my clemson lean. Obviously the point about tigers given it their all last week and coming up short basically putting their season in the toilet far as playoffs and maybe even a spot in the acc championship game is/was my biggest concern even before reading this, admittedly I’m very bad when it comes to the business of gauging a teams level of motivation or lack there of, it is without a doubt the area my capping I would love to improve! In this particular case I have no clue if we get a dejected tigers team or Dabo is able to rally the troops and we get a pissed off angry clemson? (Much like I expect to see from Irish but the massive difference being I don’t think Irish are out the running for a playoff spot while clemson appears absolutely out of that mix!). I’m actually willing to concede this point to you as I know this a huge weakness of mine! So let’s put this aside for a min and talk bout the things I do think I can cap! Lol.


Let’s start with cuse offense and the thought it better with the former OC being at ncst. That seems fair cause I don’t think a week has went by I havnt been blasting the ncst offense (the reason I played Irish vs them), o think Schrader and Armstrong are very comparable so again it seems like a reasonable assumption cuse offense is better by process of eliminating that oc! The question for becomes while cuse offense has looked good it has been against weak competition, it’s still the same basic philosophy correct? Schroeder numbers look very similar to me far as rushing attempts and only 50% completion percentage vs the only power 5 defense they have faced. So while I think it a fair point the real architect of this offense is now the cuse oc I still have doubts about how effective this offense can be against a defense as talented as clemson?

The last 2 years facing clemson Shrader was not able to get off running on them! He did get 71 yards last year but that was on 21 carry’s. The prior year he had 7 runs for 6 yards! Cuse did have some success on the ground w their rb but is Allen as talented as Tucker was? Seems to me clemson understands they need to take away Shrader as a runner which should give them a numbers edge in the box but I don’t know if that equates to Allen having a big game vs a stout run d that just held fsu to virtually nothing on the ground?

Both those games they held Shrader to just over 5 yards per pass attempt and only 4 air yards per attempt. That where my issue lies with this cuse offense, I don’t believe they have the ability to stress a defense vertically, if a defense as talented as the tigers knows they can attack the los, press up on the outside and don’t have to leave safeties over the top I just think it will be very difficult for this cuse team to consistently move the ball on them!

Shrader yards per attempt:air yards been higher this year but against the only power 5 school he reverted back down to 6 per attempt and only 5 air yards. So what is the real cuse offense? If it simply a better play caller running mostly the same offense I just don’t think they will be able to consistently drive the ball on clemson d who far and away the toughest d they have faced.

On the other side I respect your opinion more than enough to trust what you saying about the new cuse dc, my concern is once again the huge step up in class as they havnt faced a oline/rushing attack on tigers level. I guess we could debate army but that just a totally different kind of game that really doesn’t give us any kind of useful data point. Clemson run game totally destroyed cuse d last year, Shipley went for over 170 and mafa added another 90+ on 10 ypc! Let’s assume this dc has a better plan but does he have the dudes to compete at the Los? I feel like for cuse defense to slow down tigers run game they are gonna have to commit more guys to the box, I came away with more respect for clemson passing game (klubnick and their wrs) last week than I have had in some time, I believe if cuse has to commit extra guys to stopping the run klubnick can make them pay. I just don’t see a path for cuse to keep tigers from moving the ball. The one thing I do see that concerns me if I was to lay the points. Clemson has struggled to finish drives and cuse have the best red zone d in the country far as percentages of red zone drives that get tds! Again that is playing a very soft schedule but I do think something that needs to be pointed out if looking to back clemson! I’m looking for the truth not just reasons to like my side! Lol.

I know you don’t play totals but the more I find myself talking about this game the more I think under 53 has a ton of merit. I find it very tough to see cuse scoring more than 20ish, While I do think tigers can move the ball if cuse plays a bend but don’t break style that should lead to some time consuming drives ending in fgs instead of tds! I do think cuse will need to hit a big play but I’m factoring that into my assumption they scoring 20-23 tops. Clemson red zone d has been strong also, not cuse crazy numbers but having faced several more talented offenses. Think I’ve pretty much talked myself into the play I feel best about, sorry I took up so much space doing so! lol. As always your write up helped get me thinking bout some angle I hadn’t looked at, thanks as always!!!
 
2daBank said:
Great write up as always bro, has def given me some things to think about with my clemson lean. Obviously the point about tigers given it their all last week and coming up short basically putting their season in the toilet far as playoffs and maybe even a spot in the acc championship game is/was my biggest concern even before reading this, admittedly I’m very bad when it comes to the business of gauging a teams level of motivation or lack there of, it is without a doubt the area my capping I would love to improve! In this particular case I have no clue if we get a dejected tigers team or Dabo is able to rally the troops and we get a pissed off angry clemson? (Much like I expect to see from Irish but the massive difference being I don’t think Irish are out the running for a playoff spot while clemson appears absolutely out of that mix!). I’m actually willing to concede this point to you as I know this a huge weakness of mine! So let’s put this aside for a min and talk bout the things I do think I can cap! Lol.


Let’s start with cuse offense and the thought it better with the former OC being at ncst. That seems fair cause I don’t think a week has went by I havnt been blasting the ncst offense (the reason I played Irish vs them), o think Schrader and Armstrong are very comparable so again it seems like a reasonable assumption cuse offense is better by process of eliminating that oc! The question for becomes while cuse offense has looked good it has been against weak competition, it’s still the same basic philosophy correct? Schroeder numbers look very similar to me far as rushing attempts and only 50% completion percentage vs the only power 5 defense they have faced. So while I think it a fair point the real architect of this offense is now the cuse oc I still have doubts about how effective this offense can be against a defense as talented as clemson?

The last 2 years facing clemson Shrader was not able to get off running on them! He did get 71 yards last year but that was on 21 carry’s. The prior year he had 7 runs for 6 yards! Cuse did have some success on the ground w their rb but is Allen as talented as Tucker was? Seems to me clemson understands they need to take away Shrader as a runner which should give them a numbers edge in the box but I don’t know if that equates to Allen having a big game vs a stout run d that just held fsu to virtually nothing on the ground?

Both those games they held Shrader to just over 5 yards per pass attempt and only 4 air yards per attempt. That where my issue lies with this cuse offense, I don’t believe they have the ability to stress a defense vertically, if a defense as talented as the tigers knows they can attack the los, press up on the outside and don’t have to leave safeties over the top I just think it will be very difficult for this cuse team to consistently move the ball on them!

Shrader yards per attempt:air yards been higher this year but against the only power 5 school he reverted back down to 6 per attempt and only 5 air yards. So what is the real cuse offense? If it simply a better play caller running mostly the same offense I just don’t think they will be able to consistently drive the ball on clemson d who far and away the toughest d they have faced.

On the other side I respect your opinion more than enough to trust what you saying about the new cuse dc, my concern is once again the huge step up in class as they havnt faced a oline/rushing attack on tigers level. I guess we could debate army but that just a totally different kind of game that really doesn’t give us any kind of useful data point. Clemson run game totally destroyed cuse d last year, Shipley went for over 170 and mafa added another 90+ on 10 ypc! Let’s assume this dc has a better plan but does he have the dudes to compete at the Los? I feel like for cuse defense to slow down tigers run game they are gonna have to commit more guys to the box, I came away with more respect for clemson passing game (klubnick and their wrs) last week than I have had in some time, I believe if cuse has to commit extra guys to stopping the run klubnick can make them pay. I just don’t see a path for cuse to keep tigers from moving the ball. The one thing I do see that concerns me if I was to lay the points. Clemson has struggled to finish drives and cuse have the best red zone d in the country far as percentages of red zone drives that get tds! Again that is playing a very soft schedule but I do think something that needs to be pointed out if looking to back clemson! I’m looking for the truth not just reasons to like my side! Lol.

I know you don’t play totals but the more I find myself talking about this game the more I think under 53 has a ton of merit. I find it very tough to see cuse scoring more than 20ish, While I do think tigers can move the ball if cuse plays a bend but don’t break style that should lead to some time consuming drives ending in fgs instead of tds! I do think cuse will need to hit a big play but I’m factoring that into my assumption they scoring 20-23 tops. Clemson red zone d has been strong also, not cuse crazy numbers but having faced several more talented offenses. Think I’ve pretty much talked myself into the play I feel best about, sorry I took up so much space doing so! lol. As always your write up helped get me thinking bout some angle I hadn’t looked at, thanks as always!!!
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I think you make a good point about stretching the field, especially with Gadsden being out for the year for the Cuse, but their other receivers have shown the ability to make big plays. Alford, Jones, Brown and Hatcher have all caught TDs and are averaging more than 14 yards per reception.
 
4. @Tulane -21.5 v UAB: This line looks short to me, and my assumption is that it looks that way to a lot of other people too. Tulane QB Michael Pratt came back to play last week in their glorified scrimmage against Nicholls, and while he had to knock some rust off, he should be at full strength in this one. That's bad news for Trent Dilfer and the Blazers because so far this year, they haven't been able to stop anyone defensively, ranking 127th overall and finding themselves outside of the top 100 both against the run, against the pass and near dead last on 3rd down. Jared Zeno and the Blazers have been surprisingly competent on offense, but Tulane's will likely put a halt to that, as the green Wave's defense ranks 7th in overall yards per play and 4th against the run, and that's with games against much better offensive units(Ole Miss, South Alabama). They've also been living in opponents' backfields, ranking in the top 10 in tackles for loss and sacks. Tulane has famously been one of the best home teams in the country for our purposes in recent years, going 20-8 overall ATS at home and 15-5 as a home favorite. The line might be somewhat reasonable because UAB covered and didn't embarrass themselves at Georgia last week, but sometimes these road games against very solid but less famous teams can really get lopsided for squads like UAB.

No clue what happened here. Tulane must have been totally disinterested. Never had a chance
 
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Br@ssknux said:
I think you make a good point about stretching the field, especially with Gadsden being out for the year for the Cuse, but their other receivers have shown the ability to make big plays. Alford, Jones, Brown and Hatcher have all caught TDs and are averaging more than 14 yards per reception.
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I havnt really seen much of cuse this year, are they achieving those averages on air yards or run after the catch? I feel kinda same about Shrader as Armstrong, their arms do not impress me! Sure they can hit a long one with timing but imo they don’t have the arms to hit guys deep in stride! They get lot of flags cause the ball under thrown so when wr comes back the corner in no man’s land! I’d bet lot those yards per reception come from yac as cuse offense been big on the short passing/screens going for big plays, that the kind of stuff I’d expect a d as talented as tigers to snuff out!! but I’d be interested in knowing for sure if you do?
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @UAB -21.5 v UAB: This line looks short to me, and my assumption is that it looks that way to a lot of other people too. Tulane QB Michael Pratt came back to play last week in their glorified scrimmage against Nicholls, and while he had to knock some rust off, he should be at full strength in this one. That's bad news for Trent Dilfer and the Blazers because so far this year, they haven't been able to stop anyone defensively, ranking 127th overall and finding themselves outside of the top 100 both against the run, against the pass and near dead last on 3rd down. Jared Zeno and the Blazers have been surprisingly competent on offense, but Tulane's will likely put a halt to that, as the green Wave's defense ranks 7th in overall yards per play and 4th against the run, and that's with games against much better offensive units(Ole Miss, South Alabama). They've also been living in opponents' backfields, ranking in the top 10 in tackles for loss and sacks. Tulane has famously been one of the best home teams in the country for our purposes in recent years, going 20-8 overall ATS at home and 15-5 as a home favorite. The line might be somewhat reasonable because UAB covered and didn't embarrass themselves at Georgia last week, but sometimes these road games against very solid but less famous teams can really get lopsided for squads like UAB.
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Was nudging this way already. Was scary laying the 38 last week to Nicholls and it went that way as it stung me. Tulane did have 2 INTS in the EZ last week also as both QBs got time last week for Tulane.

Great stuff as always Brass
 
5. @Colorado +21.5 v USC: It's always risky to fade Caleb Williams, and last year it was a nightmare fading USC because of their incessant ability to get gobs of turnovers, but after the events of last week for Colorado, there is actually some value on the Buffs here. After jumping on the Buffs bandwagon for their week 2 game against Nebraska, I avoided them the past two weeks, but I think it's time to jump on again in this one. The line immediately dropped after the open and hasn't meandered below 21, so a lot of the pros who were salivating to fade Colorado in Eugene aren't charging to the window to lay it with the Trojans here. There's no doubt that USC will score like Brad Pitt at a divorced cougars convention, but there's nothing more frustrating than laying points on the road with a team that also looks like they'll give up points by the bushel-full. Colorado found themselves in a horrific spot last week, and I think they knew they were in trouble going into the game. I think things will be different from a motivation standpoint this week however. Colorado is back home, and they are hosting a bevy of 4 and 5 star recruits as well as half of Hollywood this week. Also, this game will be at 9AM on the body clocks for the Trojans, something that is completely new to them and frankly, they haven't played anyone. The 4 teams they've played so far rank 76th, 80th, 124th and 125th in yards per play on offense, and even then, their numbers aren't great. Nevada somehow managed 311 yards passing on them, and I'm still trying to figure out how the managed to give up 28 points to the collection of bodies that Arizona State suited up last week. Colorado will miss Travis Hunter, but they still have some talented receivers and Dylan Edwards out of the backfield to help Shedeur Sanders, assuming Xavier Weaver is able to go, which it looks like he is. Even if USC puts up 45-50 points, I'm not sure they'll be able to keep Colorado out of the mid 30's, and I trust Sean Lewis to scheme guys open and figure out a way to protect Sanders against the Trojan pass rush. That pass rush has looked very good so far, but again, it's against a bunch of piss poor offenses and offensive lines.

USC's defense did not disappoint, and nether did Shedeur Sanders.
 
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2daBank said:
I havnt really seen much of cuse this year, are they achieving those averages on air yards or run after the catch? I feel kinda same about Shrader as Armstrong, their arms do not impress me! Sure they can hit a long one with timing but imo they don’t have the arms to hit guys deep in stride! They get lot of flags cause the ball under thrown so when wr comes back the corner in no man’s land! I’d bet lot those yards per reception come from yac as cuse offense been big on the short passing/screens going for big plays, that the kind of stuff I’d expect a d as talented as tigers to snuff out!! but I’d be interested in knowing for sure if you do?
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Schrader has an ADOT of 10.7, which is actually 14th in the country among qualified QBs. He's actually throwing it downfield quite a bit.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I suspect Syracuse will have the coaching advantage on both sides of the ball, and this group is certainly not intimidated by Clemson as they've beaten them twice in the past 8-10 years and have hung with them consistently.
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Once.
 
Curious as to your thoughts on taking the Buffs TT angle as I was considering taking over anything 27.5 or lower (won’t get a line at BM or BOL til tomorrow but seeing 25.5 at BV).

Best of luck, hope you keep the momentum goin man!
 
carolinablue said:
Curious as to your thoughts on taking the Buffs TT angle as I was considering taking over anything 27.5 or lower (won’t get a line at BM or BOL til tomorrow but seeing 25.5 at BV).

Best of luck, hope you keep the momentum goin man!
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I'm not great at team totals CB, but the Buffs have laid 42 and 36 on two defenses that I suspect are better than USC's in TCU and Nebraska. USC has the benefit of game film that TCU and to some extent Nebraska didn't, but if it's in that area I think you can make a good case.
 
M.W. said:
Once.
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Yep. They've covered so easily against Clemson in 5 of the last 6 years that I thought they got them twice. That's the second careless mistake I've made that you caught in the past two weeks on Clemson. That's why I like being on here because we've got guys who know what the hell they're talking about that will correct you in a heartbeat.
 
I’m chime in on Lou as well. Like someone mentioned he got better maybe with age. He used to do a CFB recap show on espn radio on Sunday mornings. He was better at that than TV to me.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. @Colorado +21.5 v USC: It's always risky to fade Caleb Williams, and last year it was a nightmare fading USC because of their incessant ability to get gobs of turnovers, but after the events of last week for Colorado, there is actually some value on the Buffs here. After jumping on the Buffs bandwagon for their week 2 game against Nebraska, I avoided them the past two weeks, but I think it's time to jump on again in this one. The line immediately dropped after the open and hasn't meandered below 21, so a lot of the pros who were salivating to fade Colorado in Eugene aren't charging to the window to lay it with the Trojans here. There's no doubt that USC will score like Brad Pitt at a divorced cougars convention, but there's nothing more frustrating than laying points on the road with a team that also looks like they'll give up points by the bushel-full. Colorado found themselves in a horrific spot last week, and I think they knew they were in trouble going into the game. I think things will be different from a motivation standpoint this week however. Colorado is back home, and they are hosting a bevy of 4 and 5 star recruits as well as half of Hollywood this week. Also, this game will be at 9AM on the body clocks for the Trojans, something that is completely new to them and frankly, they haven't played anyone. The 4 teams they've played so far rank 76th, 80th, 124th and 125th in yards per play on offense, and even then, their numbers aren't great. Nevada somehow managed 311 yards passing on them, and I'm still trying to figure out how the managed to give up 28 points to the collection of bodies that Arizona State suited up last week. Colorado will miss Travis Hunter, but they still have some talented receivers and Dylan Edwards out of the backfield to help Shedeur Sanders, assuming Xavier Weaver is able to go, which it looks like he is. Even if USC puts up 45-50 points, I'm not sure they'll be able to keep Colorado out of the mid 30's, and I trust Sean Lewis to scheme guys open and figure out a way to protect Sanders against the Trojan pass rush. That pass rush has looked very good so far, but again, it's against a bunch of piss poor offenses and offensive lines.
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I know you don't play totals but it seems like it will fly over if Colorado hangs in and covers.

I have next to zero faith in CU getting stops but I also have to think that prime will sell his soul to not get shutout for a 2nd straight week and keep this score respectable.
 
6. Old Dominion +14.5 @Marshall: If the Herd has proven one thing since Charles Huff has been there, it's that they have a pretty wild variance for their ATS performance depending on whether they're playing at home or on the road. On the road, they've been great, racking up a 9-3 ATS record with outright upset wins at Notre Dame, Appy State and James Madison last year. But when they've been at home, it's been a totally different story. In the vast majority of those games they've been a favorite, and coming into their year they were 2-9 ATS with five outright losses. This year they covered as a home favorite by a point over a VT squad that was 4-13 ATS in the non-conference, so someone had to cover in that one, and by luck of the draw, it was Marshall. Now they are back in their challenged role, and I think ODU matches up pretty good with them. Offensively, Marshall wants to run with Rasheen Ali, who piled up 174 yards last week against VT, and that's with good reason. He's good, and QB Cam Fancher is not the guy you want to rely on to move the ball through the air. He was less than 7 yards per attempt last year, and he's the same this year with a 2/3 TD/INT ratio. ODU has been good against the run so far this year, having held Wake and Virginia Tech to 2.3 and 2.5 yards per carry, so Marshall might need Fancher to be effective for them to cover this. Marshall's defense also ranks only 103rd against the run despite playing pretty weak competition. ODU would probably be in their best interest to keep it on the ground as their QB Grant Wilson has been sacked 18(!!) times in the past two weeks, including 8 by Texas A&M Commerce last week. If Wilson can get his passes off, he's been ok on a per attempt basis, but they've been getting killed by negative plays. Their RBs have been good, averaging 6 yards per carry, so they might have good success there. Even though the transitive property would tell you that these two teams performances against a common opponent(VT) would suggest you play Marshall here, the Herd's anemic ATS record as a home favorite under Huff and some pretty good matchups on both sides of the ball lead me to the dog here. Hope Dollaz agrees.

I thought ODU would be able to run, and when they gave it to Kadarrius Calloway, that worked out, LOL(check the box score). I also thought they would stop the run and they did, (Ali 28 carries for 78 yards). The problem was Fancher torched them. Good cover though.
 
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AliShaheed said:
I know you don't play totals but it seems like it will fly over if Colorado hangs in and covers.

I have next to zero faith in CU getting stops but I also have to think that prime will sell his soul to not get shutout for a 2nd straight week and keep this score respectable.
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I think you're right but if I played it, well...you know what would happen.
 
7. @UCF -11.5 v Baylor: Baylor sits at 1-3, and they deserve to be there. I'm typically very sympathetic to the idea of backing Dave Aranda, but they've been so bad defensively for about 15 games now that I think it makes sense to call a spade a spade and assume they're going to continue to struggle on that side of the ball. This UCF offense v Baylor defense matchup looks like a bloodbath no matter which way you slice it. UCF has already played Boise and Kansas State on the road, and the Knights still rank 4th in the country in yards per play, 2nd in yards per rush attempt and 9th in yards per pass. Baylor can't stop a nosebleed, especially in the passing game as they rank 124th in yards per pass attempt allowed. They also grade out 125th overall on defense in PFF's grades and rank 121st in coverage. UCF has turned to backup Timmy McClain, and although he couldn't get them a win in Manhattan, I was surprised at how good he looked in a tough spot. He's at 11.2 per attempt and has a 5/1 ratio and WR Kobe Hudson is averaging 23 yards per reception. Defensively, UCF struggles stopping the run, but Baylor hasn't run the ball worth a shit this year, ranking 111th in yards per carry. Blake Shapen should give the Baylor offense a boost assuming he comes back this week, but he'll be stepping into a pretty tough environment, and UCF has been good against the pass, ranking 22nd in yards per pass attempt against. The knights are coming off a tough loss in Manhattan, so they need a win here and I'm sure the Bounce House will be a great atmosphere in their first Big 12 home game. It's a tough spot for a Baylor team that looks to me like their walking into a nightmare matchup.

With 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter it was 35-10 UCF, and if you read above, you had the game summary until that point. From that point on, who the fuck knows what happened? I still don't.
 
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Line dropped to UCF -9.5 in a lot of spots. I guess because Shapen is pretty much confirmed to play and maybe due to forecast for rain?? I'll obviously take it.
 
8. @Purdue +1 v Illinois: I hope I'm wrong, but i just don't like Illinois chances in this game, especially now that Illinois is favored and Purdue can enter this one as the underdog rather than Illinois. Both teams are not well suited to be favorites in this game, and Illinois has been lights out as a Big Ten road dog, so their moving to a road favorite works in Purdue's favor here. Purdue is 1-3, but they have played a tough schedule, with losses at home to Syracuse, Fresno State and Wisconsin, who have combined for just one loss between them. Purdue has looked ok on offense in those games, but turnovers and failed 4th downs have killed them. On defense, they are learning a new staff's defensive schemes, and it's led to decent numbers when considering the competition, but not on third down. The same issues befell HC Ryan Walters' defense in his first year as DC at Illinois, but in about week 5 or so, things started to turn around, and I think we might see that happen this week. On the other side, Illinois is a mirror image of Purdue. They've moved the ball ok, but they've been very inefficient on offense, with penalties and turnovers really thwarting drives. Defensively, they have not found their rhythm and they've been uncharacteristically rock-headed, clutching and grabbing when not necessary in coverage and committing a ton of dead ball fouls leading to gift first downs. They also have not been able to force any turnovers, and a lot of that has to do with the new personnel on defense as well as the loss of starting safety Matthew Bailey for the year, who was a major contributor on last year's defense and had a nose for creating turnovers. Also, the Illinois offensive line has been terrible, both in the run game and especially the passing game, where Luke Altmeyer has been running for his life. QB runs have been an issue for Purdue this year, but I'm guessing Altmeyer will be running out of necessity. He's been sacked 15 times in 4 games, and he had several plays last week where he made plays despite heavy pressure. Another added wrinkle in this game is the familiarity the Purdue staff(many of them came with Walters from Illinois) has with pretty much Illinois' entire roster. Walters even had a hand in recruiting most of this year's freshman and has developed most if not all of the current defensive contributors. Purdue also has had an additional day to prepare. I think the Illini will struggle to cover the combination of Burks, Sheffield and Yaseen on the perimeter, and Mockobee and Tracy should have some success in the ground game, especially if Purdue accounts for Johnny Newton in the interior.


I don't want to sound like an asshole or anything, but in all seriousness, you should probably not fade me when I write about Illinois games.
 
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9. @Nebraska +17.5 v Michigan: One area that Nebraska excelled in, even under Scott Frost, was their performance as an underdog the last few years. They've gone 9-5 in that role since 2021, so most of the players currently on the team are used to playing competitively. The same can be said for Matt Rhule, who in his career is 32-14 ATS as a dog and 13-5 as a home dog. There's been a lot said of Michigan's ATS struggles so far this year, and I think they've been kind of sleepwalking through their games a bit. The running game hasn't looked crisp, and now they are facing a Nebraska defense that ranks 2nd in yards per rush attempt. Offensively, it's unclear who will be lining up at QB, but Nebraska is likely to spend most of their time running regardless of if it's Heinrich Haarberg, who has looked very good running the ball against a couple of bad defenses in NIU and La Tech. I don't know that he or Jeff Sims will have much success, but they'll be chewing clock and I'm guessing Michigan won't be abandoning the run either. I've always been a fan of Rhule, and I think he might be making progress to the point Nebraska could be avoiding completely imploding. If they can do that and put a couple scores on the board, they should be able to get under this number at home.

I was considering going against 3 of the perceived heavyweights of the season so far. Michigan, Georgia and Washington. Ultimately I said yes on Nebraska and deleted actual write-ups on Auburn and Arizona(AZ mostly because I didn't trust the backup, so I can't kill myself there). Michigan was engaged for sure. Sometimes teams that look disinterested in cupcake home games get their shit together when they hit the road, and Michigan definitely did there. Bad play here, but a lot of guys I trust were on that side, so we live and learn.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
8. @Purdue +1 v Illinois: I hope I'm wrong, but i just don't like Illinois chances in this game, especially now that Illinois is favored and Purdue can enter this one as the underdog rather than Illinois. Both teams are not well suited to be favorites in this game, and Illinois has been lights out as a Big Ten road dog, so their moving to a road favorite works in Purdue's favor here. Purdue is 1-3, but they have played a tough schedule, with losses at home to Syracuse, Fresno State and Wisconsin, who have combined for just one loss between them. Purdue has looked ok on offense in those games, but turnovers and failed 4th downs have killed them. On defense, they are learning a new staff's defensive schemes, and it's led to decent numbers when considering the competition, but not on third down. The same issues befell HC Ryan Walters' defense in his first year as DC at Illinois, but in about week 5 or so, things started to turn around, and I think we might see that happen this week. On the other side, Illinois is a mirror image of Purdue. They've moved the ball ok, but they've been very inefficient on offense, with penalties and turnovers really thwarting drives. Defensively, they have not found their rhythm and they've been uncharacteristically rock-headed, clutching and grabbing when not necessary in coverage and committing a ton of dead ball fouls leading to gift first downs. They also have not been able to force any turnovers, and a lot of that has to do with the new personnel on defense as well as the loss of starting safety Matthew Bailey for the year, who was a major contributor on last year's defense and had a nose for creating turnovers. Also, the Illinois offensive line has been terrible, both in the run game and especially the passing game, where Luke Altmeyer has been running for his life. QB runs have been an issue for Purdue this year, but I'm guessing Altmeyer will be running out of necessity. He's been sacked 15 times in 4 games, and he had several plays last week where he made plays despite heavy pressure. Another added wrinkle in this game is the familiarity the Purdue staff(many of them came with Walters from Illinois) has with pretty much Illinois' entire roster. Walters even had a hand in recruiting most of this year's freshman and has developed most if not all of the current defensive contributors. Purdue also has had an additional day to prepare. I think the Illini will struggle to cover the combination of Burks, Sheffield and Yaseen on the perimeter, and Mockobee and Tracy should have some success in the ground game, especially if Purdue accounts for Johnny Newman in the interior.
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Scary to see you on purdue since you follow illinois .... on other side and IMO really sets up for a old fashioned brett beliema smashmouth ball. Brett is a better in conference coach then out of conference, and he really wants this one bad if I had to take one of the two coaches - but my cap is pretty much upfront i expect iillinois to dominate both lines and the run game

Now the concern is if you can't score vs kansas , but to me this team has 3 returning starting ol and a strong dl - I think the difference in physicalilty between these two programs is stark. I tend to think purdue is a fraud - score was not as indicitive of how much worse they were then fresno, playing close with virginia tech is a bad look, and syracuse and wisconsin ran down their throat..
 
10. Iowa State +19.5 @Oklahoma: Last week Oklahoma pushed against Cincinnati, but the Sooners were fortunate that Cincinnati found every way possible to not score when they were living in the red zone all day. 5 times the Bearcats were deep in Oklahoma territory and failed to score. The same reasons I was on the opposite side of Oklahoma also apply today. They'll be playing a fundamentally sound defense in Iowa State, and the Cyclones are adept at stopping the pass and getting off the field on 3rd down. They struggle a bit against the run, but Oklahoma hasn't run the ball well this year either against some mediocre defenses. Since Matt Campbell has been there, Iowa State has been a double digit dog against Oklahoma 4 times and they've covered all 4. Campbell Iowa State made some progress in the passing game last week against Oklahoma State, with new QB Rocco Becht topping 300 passing yards, so Iowa State might be competitive when they need to move the ball through the air. Since 2016, Campbell has a a stellar record overall as a double digit dog, and I'll trust a solid defense to keep it close in this one.

Iowa State has a good defense I said. If we can get the ISU offense to get some points on the board, we should be in good shape. Oklahoma had 47 points 2 minutes into the second half. Should have seen that coming I guess?
 
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EL CAPO said:
Scary to see you on purdue since you follow illinois .... on other side and IMO really sets up for a old fashioned brett beliema smashmouth ball. Brett is a better in conference coach then out of conference, and he really wants this one bad if I had to take one of the two coaches - but my cap is pretty much upfront i expect iillinois to dominate both lines and the run game

Now the concern is if you can't score vs kansas , but to me this team has 3 returning starting ol and a strong dl - I think the difference in physicalilty between these two programs is stark. I tend to think purdue is a fraud - score was not as indicitive of how much worse they were then fresno, playing close with virginia tech is a bad look, and syracuse and wisconsin ran down their throat..
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I hope you're right, and I'll gladly fork out the cash if I lose, but Capo if your assumption is that this Illinois OL is going to dominate anyone, it will be a complete 180 from what they've done so far this year. They miss Alex Palczewski(with the Broncos now) and Alex Pihlstrom from last year's line, and the two guys expected to anchor this year's line(Julian Pearl and Isaiah Adams) have both been getting beaten like a drum regularly. They don't have a right tackle who can pass block whatsoever...the OL is a major concern right now. I actually expect Purdue to have the edge in the trenches on that side of the ball. FAU and Toledo defenders for example were flooding their backfield all day and Altmeyer had to completely ad lib on some of their most successful plays. They haven't moved anyone in the running game either, although Reggie Love bullied his way for some yards against Penn State. We'll see about the DL, but they've been tackling poorly and can't get to the QB to save their lives(92nd in pass rush). I hope you're right, and we see them impose their will, but like I said, that hasn't happened at all so far this year.
 
11. @Duke +6(-114) v Notre Dame: At this point, I am going to back Elko and the Blue Devils until they burn me. Since Elko has gotten there, Duke remains perfect against the spread, and the fact that they went up to UConn in a tough lookahead spot and absolutely dismantled the Huskies shows just how well coached they are. I'm a little concerned that ND will be able to run on Duke, but the Blue Devils are 4th in the country in yards per play and have been the best coverage team in the country per PFF. If Elko can scheme up a way to be competitive against the run, I don't know that Hartman will be in a position to have a lot of success throwing the ball. ND is also going to have to contend with Riley Leonard who has been great, and I think Duke will have the edge in the running game on that side of the ball, mostly because Leonard has been just as good running the ball as he has been throwing it, averaging more than 8 yards a rush even with sacks figured in. This is a very resourceful Duke team, and there's no doubt the Blue Devils hold a significant coaching advantage. If ND is still affected by that tough result last week and doesn't play their A game, there's a real chance they can lose this one outright.

Fuck this game.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Schrader has an ADOT of 10.7, which is actually 14th in the country among qualified QBs. He's actually throwing it downfield quite a bit.
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Interesting. Think I’ve pretty much gotten off this game far as a side, still debating a prop or 2 but not wanting to go up against you on this one. Gl buddy
 
Br@ssknux said:
11. @Duke +6(-114) v Notre Dame: At this point, I am going to back Elko and the Blue Devils until they burn me. Since Elko has gotten there, Duke remains perfect against the spread, and the fact that they went up to UConn in a tough lookahead spot and absolutely dismantled the Huskies shows just how well coached they are. I'm a little concerned that ND will be able to run on Duke, but the Blue Devils are 4th in the country in yards per play and have been the best coverage team in the country per PFF. If Elko can scheme up a way to be competitive against the run, I don't know that Hartman will be in a position to have a lot of success throwing the ball. ND is also going to have to contend with Riley Leonard who has been great, and I think Duke will have the edge in the running game on that side of the ball, mostly because Leonard has been just as good running the ball as he has been throwing it, averaging more than 8 yards a rush even with sacks figured in. This is a very resourceful Duke team, and there's no doubt the Blue Devils hold a significant coaching advantage. If ND is still affected by that tough result last week and doesn't play their A game, there's a real chance they can lose this one outright.
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Man. Guess this week had to come at some point cause we been agreeing on everything last few weeks! I don’t like it but I gotta be against you here, Irish is my favorite side of the week (they have covered every game themselves). I just don’t see the advantages for duke that you do. I think Irish will push them around in the run game, if duke can scheme to slow the run down I think it makes life very easy for Hartman. Defensively the Irish secondary is so good, they just held arguably the best wr corp in the country relatively in check, I think they can man up duke wrs and commit whatever it takes to stopping Leonard in the run game. Their linebackers are more than athletic enough to keep Leonard contained imo. I’m a fan of duke and their HC as well but I think this a huge step up in class for them far as the oline/run game they be facing and defense they gonna be dealing with in this one. I don’t think there any kind of letdown for the Irish who imo still have a clear path to the playoff if they win out, I really expect last weeks heartbreaking loss to spark a fire under this team who should have come away from that game knowing they can play with any team in the country. Imo with Hartman Irish one the best 5-6 teams in the country and while I like duke they just not yet in that class.
 
2daBank said:
Man. Guess this week had to come at some point cause we been agreeing on everything last few weeks! I don’t like it but I gotta be against you here, Irish is my favorite side of the week (they have covered every game themselves). I just don’t see the advantages for duke that you do. I think Irish will push them around in the run game, if duke can scheme to slow the run down I think it makes life very easy for Hartman. Defensively the Irish secondary is so good, they just held arguably the best wr corp in the country relatively in check, I think they can man up duke wrs and commit whatever it takes to stopping Leonard in the run game. Their linebackers are more than athletic enough to keep Leonard contained imo. I’m a fan of duke and their HC as well but I think this a huge step up in class for them far as the oline/run game they be facing and defense they gonna be dealing with in this one. I don’t think there any kind of letdown for the Irish who imo still have a clear path to the playoff if they win out, I really expect last weeks heartbreaking loss to spark a fire under this team who should have come away from that game knowing they can play with any team in the country. Imo with Hartman Irish one the best 5-6 teams in the country and while I like duke they just not yet in that class.
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I don't disagree with anything you said there. Sometimes this is an art and not a science, but also sometimes the science wins out. I trust Elko here as having the superior staff, and like I said, until someone takes his lunch money at home I'm gonna continue to ride with him, especially when I can see the possibility of a tough spot for ND. They should have clubbed Stanford and Marshall last year under Freeman too.
 
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