Week 5 thoughts and plays...

[horses]

Went out to brunch today and didn't get around to looking at this weeks games until it was a little too late for one of the games I locked in...nevertheless...two plays I'm on early and the both involve revenge for last year as I'm on two teams that are generally superior to the teams their up against and with what I consider big-time revenge:

Nebraska -19 over Kansas (yeah, I know I missed a key number, but I liked this all the way up to 24. The difference between being a recreational and a pro gambler).

Florida -12' over Alabama (this is going to be a beating plain and simple).

I'll add to this thread as the week goes on; however, I am going to Tucson tomorrow afternoon and won't be home till Wed night; won't be online while I am away.

GL with the handicapping this week.

:7_2_111:

 

[SoonerBS]

I like tham both and am already on Florida -13. I like Nebraska all the way up to -21. I will be on them before the week is out . . . . . maybe before the night is out!

 

[horses]

Right on Sooner. :cheers:

Shaping up to be a chalky weekend; also liking the Irish and the 'Canes; any thoughts on them two?

 

[SoonerBS]

No thoughts on Notre Dame, but i have money on Miami -14 against Houston. This is going to be easy money for several reason I'll list later.

 

[horses]

that's a nice number; good work on that.

man, there are so many favorites that look attractive this week...gotta look into some of these.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Great job last Saturday horses! :cheers:

I like Florida this week. If I had grabbed the NEB line when it first came out, I'd be on the Huskers...too many points to lay on the road now IMO.

I really like Cal again this week. Now down to Cal -9. I think I'll pull the trigger on the Golden Bears shortly. Taking into account that the Beavers did lose to Boise on that dreaded blue field, Ian Johnson absolutely crushed the beavers with 220 yards on the ground and 5 TDs in Week 2. Johnson is good, but IMO, he still doesn't hold a candle to the dynamic duo of Lynch and Forsett. Cal should be able to run the ball at will, all game long. Also, I have more respect for ASU's offense than the Beavers offense. I like Cal by 21 in this one (my only worry is a possible look ahead to undefeated Oregon). Any thoughts on this game?...

How about SDSU -2.5? The Spartans actually seem to have a solid offense this season. With the way the Aztecs have been playing, I don't think I can touch this.

Wisconsin -11? Indiana lost at home to UConn last week. Hoosiers are just plain hurting right now. Wisky should be able to run the ball, which should open up the passing lanes for Stocco. Badgers defense looks decent this year as well. I think it's Wisky or no play.

Navy +2.5? Seems like everyone and their mom likes the Midshipmen here.

As always, your thoughts and feedback are always appreciated. :shake:

 

[Timh]

BOL this week Horses.

 

[B.A.R.]

Like em Horses...gl

 

[horses]

Thanks BAR and TimH...let's get 'em this week.

Aztec...

First off, I agree...that would be too many for the 'Huskers to lay on the road, but the game is in Lincoln. Like I said...I like it up to 24; not sure how much Kansas can score and I'm not sold on their young defense just yet.

I've been on Cal the last two times out; I think they may go on a spread run but I was hoping for something closer to 7 here. On the other hand, I don't think you have to worry about Cal overlooking OSU, after the Beavers beat Cal in Berkely as 15 pt dogs LY. I still may play Cal, though I think the Beavers will be tougher vs the run in Reser.

It's the Aztecs or no play for me; I'll monitor this further when I return from Tucson. If this becomes a play, it'll be later in the week once I see how the QB situation shapes up. Aztecs usually handle these types of schools easily, but under this new regime, all bets may be off so to speak.

I haven't looked into Navy yet.

Wisconsin...should handle the Hoosiers but I generally hate laying two scores on the road with good but not great teams. It's the Badgers or pass though, that's for sure.

After having a nice selection of 'dogs last week, this week I cannot seem to spot any 'dogs at this point that look attractive except maybe a couple SBC teams getting two scores on the road (Ark St and FAU). SBC HF's laying >7 points are about 30% the L2Y. ULM laying 14 looks particularly overpriced.

I am leaving for Tucson shortly and won't be discussing much until I return Wednesday nite. I'll be lucky to be online at all in the next 48 hours.

Look fwd to more discussion upon my return. :drink:

 

[RJ Esq]

See my trend thread about Indiana's poor home dog record. 70%+ Against.

 

[horses]

Yep...1-6 ATS L2Y as well. There will be some emotion involved with Hoeppner's return and Wisconsin has no big play capability in the passing game. Those two things concern me.

 

[RJ Esq]

That Hoeppner angle worries me.

I'm not too worried about big play capability. Think Wisky grinds em down and stretches it out in the 2nd half.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Oops! Meant to say 'too many points for NEB to lay down period'. You aren't worried at all by the Kansas defense keeping it close? I know the Jayhawks offense is bad...but is it bad enough to where they'll score 0-7?

Thanks again for all the feedback horses! :cheers:

 

[horses]

Aztec,

I know I'm a little late in responding and the line has risen to a point where I might not be as comfortable betting it, but like I said, I like Nebraska big in this game, as I think their offense will score and the will hold KU to about 10 points.

Adding:

Duke +6 over Virginia
Just like last week...another shitty dog, but all 3 covered for me last week. Just like the Miss St game last week, see Killa's post for reasoning...I can't add to much to that. All I can say is that the Duke defense has been reasonably good and UVA is struggling big time on offense...and laying 6 on the road in a game where Duke is off a bye (4-0 ats) and motivated by the fact this is their best chance for an ACC win this year. 'Hoos 2-8 ATS last 10 ACC roadies.

I'll round out my card late Friday nite...lost some time early this week on travek for work.

GL all...

 

[B.A.R.]

Wow, everyone getting on that Duke wagon. If I add anymore its gotta be Duke and Huskers. Both looking better to me by the minute.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

great early lines, horses. i missed the value in those two.
GL with Duke...could be a nice dog...especially with the ineptness of Virgina's offense.
BOL this weekend.

 

[horses]

Thanks Yanks and BAR; I can't believe the shit dogs I bet last week and am considering this week. Thinking strongly about adding Florida Atlantic to the mix this week...Sunbelt teams shouldn't be laying 15 points to other Sunbelt teams. I'm not sure I'm well though...

 

[smo1a]

Nice line on the Gators! GL this weekend horses

 

[MistaFlava]

Good luck this week horses!

 

[horses]

Thank you Smola andFlava...g/l to both of you this wknd.

Rounding out the wknd card:

Florida Atlantic +14 over ULM
Boise St +5 over Utah
Georgia Tech +11 over Va Tech

This card is not for the faint of heart, as I have Duke and FAU this week; also betting against the Gobblers in Lane Stadium. Just remember...there are plenty of weeks where shit teams cover and public favorites (see Auburn) do not. Last week I had Kent, Miss St and Colorado...all shit dogs that covered their games easily. Hope to run it back this week.

GL to all.

 

[horses]

Weekly recap: 4-2 ATS

I will gladly take that since I think I got my worst pick of the year out of the way in Duke; additionally, I was lucky to get the pik six in the Tide-Gator game, which gave me the cover and the profitable weekend. On a positive note...and aside from Duke...all my other dogs won easily in FAU, Boise St and Ga Tech.

Final comment is on Nebraska; payed to find that the Nebraska defense isn't all that. It will be virtually impossible to lay big points with this team going forward against any halfway decent offenses. They simply could not stop Kansas...I think the Big 12 North still sucks and will be exposed when Missouri visits Lubbock this week.

Yes...I like Tech this week laying the cheap price to Missouri; I also see Pinnacle put up some numbers in the middle of the nite and I completely missed out on OU +7...oh well...my loss but I got to sleep some time. At least I think I do...

Hope everyone had a solid weekend. :drink:

 

[RJ Esq]

Good week, Horses. 5-3 myself.

Nebraska was a joke. I'm hoping that their D wasn't what I saw last night. Hopefully just an off night.

 

[horses]

I thought you had a good weekend RJ; just didn't go back and check. Good job.

Look forward to hearing your thoughts on OU-UT.

I'm afraid that was the Nebraska defense we say yesterday; if they cannot generate a pass rush, their secondary is not equipped to cover anyone for any length of time. I mean really...after going to OT vs KU at home...do you really see any sure-fire SU victories remaining on their schedule, except maybe KSU?

 

[cubsker]

Weekly recap: 4-2 ATS

I will gladly take that since I think I got my worst pick of the year out of the way in Duke; additionally, I was lucky to get the pik six in the Tide-Gator game, which gave me the cover and the profitable weekend. On a positive note...and aside from Duke...all my other dogs won easily in FAU, Boise St and Ga Tech.

Final comment is on Nebraska; payed to find that the Nebraska defense isn't all that. It will be virtually impossible to lay big points with this team going forward against any halfway decent offenses. They simply could not stop Kansas...I think the Big 12 North still sucks and will be exposed when Missouri visits Lubbock this week.

Yes...I like Tech this week laying the cheap price to Missouri; I also see Pinnacle put up some numbers in the middle of the nite and I completely missed out on OU +7...oh well...my loss but I got to sleep some time. At least I think I do...

Hope everyone had a solid weekend. :drink:

As a Nebraska fan, I was in total shock over what happened last night. Our D gameplan is just terrible. One of our starting corners is just terrible. Our LB was terrible. Our DLine play (mostly due to the gameplan IMHO) was terrible. Our tackling was terrible. Just fucking terrible. I said on Friday that if the NU/ISU line was 7 or less, I was going to pound NU. Not after that dismal performance last night. Just fucking terrible.