Week 5 SEC Discussion

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 4: 8-12-1

2016: 48-41-4


Week 5:

Ok St -2.5
UGA +3.5
aTm -17.5
Mizzou +13
Arizona St +10
UNC +11
Wake Forest +11
Arizona +13.5
TCU +3.5
Iowa St/Baylor UN 61
AU/ULM UN 56
Washington -3



Season bets:

JT Barrett to win Heisman +1500
Miss St ov 6' wins (2-2)
USC ov 7' wins (1-3)
Utah ov 7' wins (4-0)
Kentucky un 4' wins (2-2)
Arkansas ov 7' wins (3-1)
 
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Week 5 SEC PR lines:

Florida -4.5 @ Vandy
Alabama -31.5 vs UK
Auburn -28.5 vs La Monroe
Ole Miss -14.5 vs Memphis
LSU -6.5 vs Mizzou
UGA -2 vs Tennessee
aTm -10.5 @ South Carolina
 
I made these last Friday before any of the games were played. I like to do that preliminarily when I can and then re-adjust. I haven't done any re-adjusting. Just getting caught up on games today.

Alcorn/Arkansas (Noon) NL
Florida/Vandy (Noon) +12.5/37
ULM/Auburn (3:30) -27/58.5
Tenn/UGA (3:30) -6.5/47
aTm/USCe (4:00) +13/48
Memphis/Ole Miss (7:00) -17/69.5
Kentucky/Alabama (7:00) -34/57.5
Missouri/LSU (7:30) -8/58

 
The Vols may have woken up. I have no idea what happened the 2H but I still think they are gonna have a tough time stopping Chubb. They got lucky and avoided him last year. The DL is gonna have to play like they did in the 2H of Fl gm to stand a chance. Chubb should get his 100 on the ground.
 
Since I'm on vacation all this week. I'm gonna dig in on this Jorga/Vols gm.
My gut says Jorga is gonna "step on our face with a hobnail boot, break our nose and crush our face"
 
The Vols may have woken up. I have no idea what happened the 2H but I still think they are gonna have a tough time stopping Chubb. They got lucky and avoided him last year. The DL is gonna have to play like they did in the 2H of Fl gm to stand a chance. Chubb should get his 100 on the ground.

I have only watched the 1Q of the UF/UT game so far and I'm still wondering how in the world I'm going to lose two bets and push one on that game. Will finish watching tomorrow. Also, on Chubb, he got knocked out of game last week with an ankle. Will likely know more tomorrow but he is one of the few backs in the country I would make a larger adjustment for.
 
LSU - anything

Interesting. I think there is a decent chance you get beat SU. Most times I'm weary of the coaching bump when this happens in the short term however the way Miles was loved by players I don't see it having the positive impact it sometimes does. I could be wrong but that's 4 games in a row now where Ive been unimpressed and now dealing with all this..
 
From all accounts these kids were really emotional in the locker room...like the bad way. As in "Time to change" and sadly some "Fuck this guy!".....

Just before anyone posts anything, see my previous posts about the LSU vs AU game.....
 
Ck he lost the room....Coach O is loved and respected and the cancers are gone....id lay DD here.

The stadium will be rocking and campus LIT
 
I have only watched the 1Q of the UF/UT game so far and I'm still wondering how in the world I'm going to lose two bets and push one on that game. Will finish watching tomorrow. Also, on Chubb, he got knocked out of game last week with an ankle. Will likely know more tomorrow but he is one of the few backs in the country I would make a larger adjustment for.
a light switch was turned on @halftime and I still have no idea how it got turned on. Let me know what you see... honestly to me... the DL finally showed up and the WRs just started catching balls. There were so many drops the 1H and Dobbs was actually very accurate
 
Ck he lost the room....Coach O is loved and respected and the cancers are gone....id lay DD here.

The stadium will be rocking and campus LIT

I took the two TD with Mizzou so we could be opposite. I will say I do think it's a unique scenario given that Coach O has done this before. I didnt really intend to even bet the game but I was so surprised by the line I went ahead and grabbed it
 
a light switch was turned on @halftime and I still have no idea how it got turned on. Let me know what you see... honestly to me... the DL finally showed up and the WRs just started catching balls. There were so many drops the 1H and Dobbs was actually very accurate

Ya I will say that already through 1Q Dobbs looked better passing than I've seen him all year. Several drops as you mentioned. Cam Sutton's backup at CB has gotten picked on twice by Calloway - tough first assignment..
 
One thing that happened was Florida's defense gassed. They had defended 52, 48 and 50 plays the previous three games and 79 in this one.
 
For betting purposes, I wish they had held on to Les for one more game as I was planning on betting Missouri pretty much no matter what. Any PR I have for LSU right now is pretty much invalid as I have no idea what's going to happen there. I know Oregeron is interim HC, who will be calling plays? Will they promote someone off the field to OC? I imagine every coach there is now using the rest of the season to edit their resumes and audition for jobs, so I have to think that the offense will look a lot different, but are their players capable of running a different offense? And I'm talking about QB obviously. Will be an interesting game to watch this weekend for sure. Because Mizzou all of the sudden can score
 
Tennessee's comeback was impressive in that they could have easily just quit, especially getting booed off the field at halftime. Maybe that's what flipped their switch, I don't know. And I get the importance of breaking that streak. But I think people are getting a little carried away in the media right now. Florida is a good team I think, especially on defense, but they hadn't played anyone this season and they were without their starting QB. Tennessee's reward for winning that game is getting to play @ UGA, @ aTm and home for Alabama. With the emotions of this win, I think a let down is inevitable. Maybe not against UGA, but that trip to College Station is brutal and then you get Alabama at the end of 7 games in a row. The East is still wide open IMO, and almost feels like one of those years that Mizzou comes in and wins it
 
Thoughts on your game?

I haven't watched Memphis this year, but their box scores look impressive. The loss last year left a mark. That was a homecoming game of sorts for Freeze. He was spurned by Memphis when they hired Larry Porter, and then he gets his pants pulled down by Fuente. When asked about the game in his post game presser on Saturday he said, "We're looking forward to this one. We'll be ready." Ole Miss came out of UGA healthy, and they have a bye next week. Memphis has Temple on Thursday. So without getting in to the X and Os, Ole Miss will actually be motivated to beat Memphis for once, and the situational spot looks great for the Rebs.
 
I haven't watched Memphis this year, but their box scores look impressive. The loss last year left a mark. That was a homecoming game of sorts for Freeze. He was spurned by Memphis when they hired Larry Porter, and then he gets his pants pulled down by Fuente. When asked about the game in his post game presser on Saturday he said, "We're looking forward to this one. We'll be ready." Ole Miss came out of UGA healthy, and they have a bye next week. Memphis has Temple on Thursday. So without getting in to the X and Os, Ole Miss will actually be motivated to beat Memphis for once, and the situational spot looks great for the Rebs.

I can't get a feel for Memphis either. I'm the butt head that thought they had a decent chance to lose last week only to win by 75 haha. I saw Bill C tweeted that without preseason projections, which still make up 30% of his S&P+ rankings at this point, Memphis is 9th nationally and have jumped all the way to 25th even with the 30% weight in tact. HUGEEEE jump in class for Memphis here as I would say without doing a major study on it that they have played by far the easiest schedule in CFB thus far and Ole Miss has to be up there for playing the hardest or at least one of them. I made the line 17 before the games last weekend and that felt high after the Memphis demolition of BG even with the way yall trashed UGA but the more I'm thinking about it I think the current line is prob right.
 
For betting purposes, I wish they had held on to Les for one more game as I was planning on betting Missouri pretty much no matter what. Any PR I have for LSU right now is pretty much invalid as I have no idea what's going to happen there. I know Oregeron is interim HC, who will be calling plays? Will they promote someone off the field to OC? I imagine every coach there is now using the rest of the season to edit their resumes and audition for jobs, so I have to think that the offense will look a lot different, but are their players capable of running a different offense? And I'm talking about QB obviously. Will be an interesting game to watch this weekend for sure. Because Mizzou all of the sudden can score

Ensminger(the TE coach) has assumed role as Offensive Coordinator
 
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]They also named tight ends coach Steve Ensminger as the interim offensive coordinator to replace Cameron. Ensminger accepted the position and will now call plays on offense. Ensminger is someone who had been vocal behind closed doors about how the offense was not what they needed, so I think Orgeron saw moving him up as the best move. He’s been an OC four times before (McNeese, La Tech, Clemson and Texas A&M). He also has views of how this offense can be different and be much more efficient. Who knows how much different stuff you can really add at this point into a season, but I certainly don’t think the calls will be the same - especially not when it’s crunch time



I will put this here for gps and CK[/FONT]
 
I have only watched the 1Q of the UF/UT game so far and I'm still wondering how in the world I'm going to lose two bets and push one on that game. Will finish watching tomorrow. Also, on Chubb, he got knocked out of game last week with an ankle. Will likely know more tomorrow but he is one of the few backs in the country I would make a larger adjustment for.

I know people don't want to hear this, but officiating played a huge role in the 2nd half. I downloaded the game last night, and re-watched the 2nd half to make sure I saw what I thought I saw, and indeed I did. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the officiating crew intentionally manipulated the outcome of that game. And it's not just this game. It seems to be happening every week in the SEC, and it's not just the SEC either - although they are the most corrupt conference in college football. Sometimes I'm on the right side of manipulated games (Utah), and sometimes I'm on the wrong end (Florida), so it really doesn't have to do with whether I won or lost. I have been watching football for a very long time, and this season is the most egregious I have ever seen.

There are two things that I see in pretty much every game that I believe are being manipulated. First is that the one offense line will be consistently allowed to get away with egregious holding, take downs and tackles, while the opposing offensive line will be held to a completely different standard. You will also see similar things occur in the passing game. One team can almost murder the opposing team's receivers, while the opposing secondary will be called for even the slightest peccadillo.

I will point out a few things in the 4th quarter of the Florida/Tennessee game. With the score 24-21, Tennessee scores on a long pass play. A flag is thrown on the play, but after a lengthy discussion (probably like "hey, Tennessee is suppose to cover right?"), the flag is picked up, and the touchdown allowed to stand. On Florida's ensuing possession, Florida had a 2nd and 3. Tennessee's defensive end was a full yard across the LOS when the ball was snapped. It was super obvious offsides. There is simply no way an official could have missed that call, yet no flag was thrown. Obviously a 5-yard penalty would have given Florida a 1st down. As it was, Florida failed to convert on 2nd and 3rd down, and was forced to punt. On the 3rd down play, Brandon Powell was flagged and ejected for supposedly throwing a punch. The replay showed that the official was looking right at Rashaan Gaulden taunting Powell then flopping as if he was punched. Of course Powell never did anything. If anything Gaulden should have been flagged for unsportsman-like conduct, again giving Florida a 1st down. The resulting 15-yard penalty set Tennessee up at midfield, and they scored immediately effectively putting the game out of reach. On Florida's next possession, the same defensive end was again obviously offsides, and again no call. In the end Florida was flagged 3 times more than Tennessee, when it probably should have been the other way around.

The problem is obvious. Well handicapped games that should be easy winners are now losers. I could point to many games where that has occurred, but the Florida/Tennessee game is just the most recent example. I think the strategy going forward is to wait right before kickoff the place wagers, and simply fade the public. Placing early wagers to take advantage of favorable lines such as Clemson -6.5 versus Auburn, and Florida +7.5 versus Tennessee only to find out that you are on the public side is just not working.
 
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I have only watched the 1Q of the UF/UT game so far and I'm still wondering how in the world I'm going to lose two bets and push one on that game. Will finish watching tomorrow. Also, on Chubb, he got knocked out of game last week with an ankle. Will likely know more tomorrow but he is one of the few backs in the country I would make a larger adjustment for.
I watched it and I'm still trying to figure it out...LOL.
 
Just got through the game..

My thoughts:

This was just a really funky game. Talk about a tale of 2H's. I do agree with Gary Danielson that UT was very tight to start the game. It's the same tightness they've pretty much played with through the first 30% of the season. The drops have been mentioned that made Dobbs 1/8 start appear worse than it was but he also made some really atrocious throws as well. I thought their pass pro was much better than it has been but their run blocking still wasn't very good. They did get Chance Hall back this game, I believe, and it's been a unit that has been shuffling all season (There has been an SEC theme with that this year..). First off, Florida OC Nuss was fantastic in the 1H. He called plays suited to Applebys strengths while also clearly exploiting the UT pass defense downfield with Cam Sutton being sidelined for year. Look at Callaway in the 1H, 4 catches for 134, and he was just smoking #8. UF still doesn't run the ball with enough explosiveness for me considering they are a team that wants to play like Pre-Kiffin (ie McElwain & Nuss) Bama offenses. They love the screen game and I believe 2 of the 1H TD's were on screens and they were just brilliant. The UT DL and defense as a whole was pretty much a no show while the UF defense was good but not great it was more self-inflicted wounds by UT than anything else. Someone mentioned the boos when it was 21-3 going into half - that was bad... The 2H was an absolute disaster for UF. The main problem, as I saw it, was Tabor got injured and was pretty much gone for entire 3Q. So UF loses a first round DB and lo and behold, UT decides to exploit his absence and Dawson Jr just gets spanked for entire 3Q. While Tabor was gone, Dobbs went 7-9 for 126 and 2 TD. All the while, the UF offense goes 5 straight 3 and outs. To me, this was entirely on the coaching staff of Florida. They went way too conservative way too early and just got away from what gave them the lead in the 1H and that was Appleby. He was fantastic! I mean, come on.. This guy played brilliant. He literally made two poor throws for the entire game and one of them was on that crazy scramble when he avoided the sack 5 times. You are decimating the UT defense with the vertical pass game and instead you start running between the tackles for no gain, throwing predictable screens on passing downs and you just let the super talented UT DL feast on that predictability. So I def agree with you ProV that the Vols DL stepped up big time and dominated so I don't want to take credit from them but I think it was absolutely correlated to the prevent offense called for the entire 3Q. The other long TD pass by Dobbs came when Tabor was back in the game but fell down on the route with no safety help and Jennings made that great sideline grab. There is 200 yards passing and 3TD with the Tabor absence and slip. Dobbs did a nice job hitting wide open receivers for his TDs and as hard as I am on him, he was functional this game. How crazy is it that against the nation's #1 statistical defense he sets career highs in passing yards and TD passes, lol. I absolutely agree with you CC that the UF defense just gassed. 5 straight 3 and outs, losing your first rounder at DB coupled with the adrenaline crash and you get the offensive explosion from UT. Another guy that I always gibe a hard time to is Debord. He called a really good game. He is usually the most conservative guy I've ever seen and maybe it was just the emphasis put on this game by the staff that he opened things up but credit where credit is due he saw the weaknesses and exploited them which is pretty much what UF did in 1H and Vols in 2H for so many of those explosive plays. I still think they need to call more designed runs with Dobbs - he isn't consistent enough as a passer and OL isn't good enough to let Hurd just lumber on ya early in the game so I think they should continue to take the training wheels off and open up this offense. They had to in this game and they outstanding results. Two other hilarious things. if you didn't know this, it was mentioned a couple weeks ago, Gary Danielson doesn't believe there is such a thing as momentum in college football haha. Also, he compared Josh Dobbs to Dak Prescott just as I was finishing off a chicken wing at lunch at a restaurant and I threw the bone across the room in disbelief!

In seeing how this game impacts my handicap of the UGA/UT game, I had initially written this as UGA -6.5 but I saw enough in UT and the potential that they turn a corner here offensively if they open things up coupled with the losses being worse than I had expected for them on defense and I would have to make fairly significant adjustments. My concerns about the UGA team to start the season were somewhat unanswered but I saw enough in the OM game coupled with a conversation I had with the most knowledgable UGA fan I've met, a legit insider, that I think I was a TD off. I do think it's prob closer to a pick and I had this totaled at 44 and that is not a good number either. I would prob go with Pick/50.5
 
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I know people don't want to hear this, but officiating played a huge role in the 2nd half. I downloaded the game last night, and re-watched the 2nd half to make sure I saw what I thought I saw, and indeed I did. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the officiating crew intentionally manipulated the outcome of that game. And it's not just this game. It seems to be happening every week in the SEC, and it's not just the SEC either - although they are the most corrupt conference in college football. Sometimes I'm on the right side of manipulated games (Utah), and sometimes I'm on the wrong end (Florida), so it really doesn't have to do with whether I won or lost. I have been watching football for a very long time, and this season is the most egregious I have ever seen.

There are two things that I see in pretty much every game that I believe are being manipulated. First is that the one offense line will be consistently allowed to get away with egregious holding, take downs and tackles, while the opposing offensive line will be held to a completely different standard. You will also see similar things occur in the passing game. One team can almost murder the opposing team's receivers, while the opposing secondary will be called for even the slightest peccadillo.

I will point out a few things in the 4th quarter of the Florida/Tennessee game. With the score 24-21, Tennessee scores on a long pass play. A flag is thrown on the play, but after a lengthy discussion (probably like "hey, Tennessee is suppose to cover right?"), the flag is picked up, and the touchdown allowed to stand. On Florida's ensuing possession, Florida had a 2nd and 3. Tennessee's defensive end was a full yard across the LOS when the ball was snapped. It was super obvious offsides. There is simply no way an official could have missed that call, yet no flag was thrown. Obviously a 5-yard penalty would have given Florida a 1st down. As it was, Florida failed to convert on 2nd and 3rd down, and was forced to punt. On the 3rd down play, Brandon Powell was flagged and ejected for supposedly throwing a punch. The replay showed that the official was looking right at Rashaan Gaulden taunting Powell then flopping as if he was punched. Of course Powell never did anything. If anything Gaulden should have been flagged for unsportsman-like conduct, again giving Florida a 1st down. The resulting 15-yard penalty set Tennessee up at midfield, and they scored immediately effectively putting the game out of reach. On Florida's next possession, the same defensive end was again obviously offsides, and again no call. In the end Florida was flagged 3 times more than Tennessee, when it probably should have been the other way around.

The problem is obvious. Well handicapped games that should be easy winners are now losers. I could point to many games where that has occurred, but the Florida/Tennessee game is just the most recent example. I think the strategy going forward is to wait right before kickoff the place wagers, and simply fade the public. Placing early wagers to take advantage of favorable lines such as Clemson -6.5 versus Auburn, and Florida +7.5 versus Tennessee only to find out that you are on the public side is just not working.

It's ridiculous that insurance adjusters and accountants are still officiating these games. There's too much money at stake now. It's time for professionals. That doesn't eliminate the possibility of the refs deliberately influencing outcomes, but it should at least ensure that they're competent, which would be a significant improvement.
 
Here are some other thoughts I had on the Hawgs/aTm game:

Final score was really deceptive, I think. Hawgs fumbled on the 1 yard line going in for an easy TD and they also got a first down at the 1 and turned it over on downs. That should have been 14 more for them right there in what turned out to be a 21 point game. First, on Arkansas. My love for Brandon Allen may shortly be surpassed by my affection for his younger bro, Austin. He is outstanding and looks so much like his brother out there except he is showing the toughness and poise that many Arkansas fans hated Brandon for lacking until his senior year. This kid is going to turn out to be one of the conference's best QB, IMO. This could be controversial but I think it was very clear he was the better QB on the field this game. Here is where my concerns are with Arky. Bert has been been able to rely on great OL's his whole time as a HC dating back to Wisconsin and this year they are still very much a work in progress. I know it's prob not best to make too brash an over reaction after facing what is arguably the nation's best DL, certainly one of the 3-5, but they just had a tough game. Allen literally almost died on about a dozen plays. He has getting assaulted by this front 7 and hit on just about every play but his toughness and focus were incredible how he stood in there and continued to deliver strikes even after sustaining a chest bruise in the 1H and not being able to breath. Williams is coming on more and more as a great feature back and the WR/TE are an embarrassment of riches (Another theme in the SEC-W with Bama and aTm). I still maintain their defense is improved but I think they are still clearly an offense first team.

aTm just made so many explosive plays in this game. Knight was pedestrian at best throwing it in the 1H. I believe at one point he was 4/13 or something like that - the difference in his game and what allows him to be a QB in the SEC is his legs. Think he had a 42 and 48 yard TD run in the 1H alone. I dont remember the first run but the second one was a brilliant QB draw on third down using the motion man to clear the middle of the field. Their WR are so good but I just still think they could be elite as a team if they had a diff QB. I said it after the UCLA game and i'll say it again - if Josh Rosen or Austin Allen were their QB I think they are a legit nat'l title contender. Their QB and poor secondary (which is actually opposite from LY where they were so bad against run) are the glaring weaknesses. Williams looks like a really really nice back for them and I think being able to rely on a run game is what has played a huge role in their success thus far. The Arky WR were open all day and that was with the monstrous pass rush. In looking at their schedule, Bama and Ole Miss are their biggest concerns with both teams being good enough passing and stopping the run that they aren't great matchups for the Ags, IMO. Arky will continue to struggle with the top level DL's they face, which their next 4 opponents have. I'll continue to watch that position group as the season goes on and if they can improve there then they will continue to shake things up in the SEC-W.

I have a hard time seeing how USCe moves the ball a whole lot this weekend vs the Ags. 268 yards and 2.6 ypc against the vaunted Kentucky defense... I made the line too short, I think. If they score 28 hard to see how USCe gets past 10
 
"You are decimating the UT defense with the vertical pass game and instead you start running between the tackles for no gain, throwing predictable screens on passing downs and you just let the super talented UT DL feast on that predictability. So I def agree with you ProV that the Vols DL stepped up big time and dominated so I don't want to take credit from them but I think it was absolutely correlated to the prevent offense called for the entire 3Q." - Absolutely agree here, they got way too conservative and like you I thought Applebee played very well.....
 
Here is what I've played so far in SEC:

Mizzou +14.5 -120
Mizzou/LSU OVER 45
Memphis/Ole Miss OVER 64
Georgia +3.5

Outside of conf:

ECU -4
Navy/AFA UNDER 53.5
ND/Syracuse OVER 70.5
Michigan State/Indiana OVER 54
Baylor/Iowa State OVER 59
 
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LSU and FLA. Either pack it in or play their asses off this weekend.

I think the situation is tougher psychologically for UF. That game just had to zap so much from both teams but getting that sucked out of you is always easier when you win, in my own experience. LSU at least will potentially feed off the change, Lord knows Coach O is gonna scream and sweat up a fervor pre-game. LSU at home also which helps, hard to get excited about another trip up to Tennessee and early start. It's a pretty nice matchup for the Gators though, I think. Defense should get back on track and the Vandy defense is quite hard to figure out this year..
 
It's ridiculous that insurance adjusters and accountants are still officiating these games. There's too much money at stake now. It's time for professionals. That doesn't eliminate the possibility of the refs deliberately influencing outcomes, but it should at least ensure that they're competent, which would be a significant improvement.

It's not incompetence. When left tackles are leading their respective teams in tackles, it's intentional, and it is starting to completely turn me off to the whole sport, just like basketball. Basketball, a sport I used to love, is now completely unwatchable to me strictly because of officiating. It's sad to see college football heading down the exact same path.
 
It's not incompetence. When left tackles are leading their respective teams in tackles, it's intentional, and it is starting to completely turn me off to the whole sport, just like basketball. Basketball, a sport I used to love, is now completely unwatchable to me strictly because of officiating. It's sad to see college football heading down the exact same path.

Did I hear correctly the other day on the broadcast that an OL hasn't been flagged for holding against us yet this season??

May be karma for the one year our OL didn't get a holding call all season haha #LongLiveJoePendry
 
Thoughts on Mizzou/LSU

This is a pretty big number to ask a team to cover that has scored 14, 23, and 13 against FBS teams thus far. From an X and O standpoint I really like the way Mizzou provides a totally different look than what LSU has faced. Wisconsin, Auburn, Miss St aren't known for their passing attacks and that is something that Mizzou is doing really well this season with Heupel calling the shots. They are passing both efficiently and explosively - top 20 in both passing s&p+ categories. They get the ball out quick too, they are #1 nationally in standard down sacks allowed, they haven't actually allowed one in that situation thus far. I really like the way Lock has looked which is a big surprise considering how poor he looked most times last year. So you get LSU facing their first real offensive test this year against a team in Mizzou that is going to improve exponentially each game as they get more comfortable in this offense. LSU really struggled to do much of anything last week against an Auburn defense that I consider to be a bit better than Mizzou but comparable. LSU avg 5.33 ypp in that game and were really poor in finishing drives, both teams were as they averaged 2.57 and 2.60 pts per scoring opportunity (The nat'l avg is 4.73). As was discussed before last game the injuries on the OL for LSU were a concern and I think will continue to be. I do think Eitling will continue to improve as he gets more snaps and perhaps this new OC will do more that plays to his strengths. I think there are a number of ways that Mizzou can keep this within the number. Even with an LSU 3+ TD lead late the back door is wide open with this Mizzou offense for the first time in a long time. I give Mizzou the edge both when they have the ball and when LSU has the ball. I'm not convinced based on what I've seen, throwing out all the pre season expectations and guys going to get drafted, etc that LSU is the better football team. It's a combo of me warming on Mizzou and having seen enough of LSU to know they shouldn't be lined like a top 10 team right now. The coaching stuff brings a lot of uncertainty to the mix in how the players respond and that's just a risk I'm willing to take. Maybe they all of a sudden turn into a good football team. In regards to how this plays for the total, I think it's pretty clear the opener of 45 was a mistake as it currently sits at 51 less than 4 hours later. Mizzou is likely to bait them into more of a shootout than they would like and perhaps bait them into more passing (UGA 55 throws with true frosh) given that Miles was fired because his offense was stone age. I get the sense this new fella will want to get creative and open things up. He has to, right? I still think at 51 over has value.
 
Press - curious to hear your thoughts on the Ags through 4 games?

- What have you thought of Knight so far? how bout the defense?

- What have you been most surprised about so far with the team this season? The odds say you will finish 7-1 you agree or disagree?

Through 4 games, where we would expect to be. Not having to go OT with Arky for the 3rd year in a row is a win.

Knight-- prefer him running. The receiving corps is really outstanding except for one thing that bugs the hell out of me. There is some propensity to not try to get open when the play breaks down. Knight is definitely an athlete playing QB. He hit Josh Reynolds on a long throw , but I think Josh can catch a hot coal while eating a meatball sub, without spilling either. That's a guy that will be an all-pro. Saw on the Ag boards a student saying he passed Josh on the way to class and he was bouncing a tennis ball all the way.
Back to Knight, I haven't seen the 15 yd drop when being pressured like we did against the Bruins, so I'm glad for that. Can he get the ball in there, yes. Can he get it in there consistently, not so sure about that. With the talent around him, playing Trent Dilfer role is fine. In the SECW that's not going to be good enough. We gonna need a play somewhere and I think it's with his feet.
Two stories kind of sum up how I feel about it.
I had Mavs season tickets back when Nash was PG. I'd see him do the whirlingdervish thing and the ball go in, a million times. But there would be one or two times/game that it would bounce off his foot or he would just look totally out of control and it just kind of came together. That always made me feel that in a playoff game, could we depend on him to keep the ball inside himself or was it going to get lost when we needed it most .
The other thing is the highlight they like to show when 0U beat Bama in the bowl. He's rolling to his right and throws into the end zone. It's a touch pass, but my mind always says---is it going to ever come down?

Defense-- the Dline is beyond. The fact that Dae Dae and Miles are out for so many plays, same with Mack and there is little drop off. The LB's are playing beyond also and that is because of the front, but that's fine if you seize your opportunity. The is the school of Quentin Coryatt, Roper, Wallace , Semini , Holland and these guys are none of those, but are making plays when needed.
Safeties are just tremendous. Armani Watts should get a Heisman. For a little guy that goes in there and sticks his hat in to some of these behemoths--he's a tougher man than I could ever be.
Obviously, it's CB that is the weakness. I think Nick Harvey will come around if he let's go the swag and just plays.
So basically, it's the front and the back, with the middle being serviceable.

Most surprised----runnning. runrunrunrun. please God run..... T-will is putting some guys to shame. Rebuilding an offensive line and still being able to put some yards up gives me hope. As much as the spread has changed the game(and I'm an I formation guy) you can run from it so well if they have to respect your receivers. We need enough passes to open it up, but you see the Ags tearing off chunks late in the game.
To make a high school reference--Southlake (and a lot of TX high schools) have run out of the spread way more than thrown....maybe not every year, but it's had a running identity at that level for quite awhile.
A word to the NFL----TX high school players can stop the wide rcvr screen about one season after everyone started doing it. No way I'd do that against the speed of the NFL. I think I saw the Bears try it the other night. Don't remember who, but I started laughing when it got crushed.

7-1, in the west? I guess I would hit my futures bet of over 7 if that happened. we sure would have to beat some good teams. I wish they'd win the Natty, yes for the kids etc etc....but mainly to show those little primma donnas that maybe they should have stuck around. Truth be told a lot of that was coaching. I'd still like to tell them F U.
 
Thanks, press. That's really helpful.

Thoughts on Memphis/Ole Miss

Last year Memphis won 37-24 and there were just under 1,000 yards offense and 101 passes thrown. I don't think that Ole Miss will overlook Memphis given how close their campuses are and it being a rivalry* couple with Ole Miss being out for revenge. Memphis is 3-0 with wins over FCS and two teams that are playing at an FCS level - Kansas and Bowling Green. They may be really good, I don't know yet. They have handled business so far and beat the teams in front of them soundly. Kansas actually moved the ball decently against them at 4.6 ypp but they killed themselves with 6 TO and gave Memphis the ball with great field position all game. Last week memphis really came to life beating BG 77-3. They had 8.14 ypp on 635 yards offense and scored about every way you can think of. All of this to say, it seems what Fuente built offensively, there appears to be there won't be the type of dropoff one would expect in losing a 1st round QB and Top 10 head coach. I don't know that for sure but given the info we have now I feel like we can say they look solid offensively but haven't played an offense with a pulse yet, let alone a Top 10 offense like they will see in OM. Here is what we do know about OM, their offense is nasty and got even nastier last week that they put together the run game that helped them balanced at the tail end of last season. The OL was a big concern coming into the year and it appears they may be maturing at the right time. Their problem still is the defense and the style play they implement just makes it hard on their defense. The early season trend of their opponents keeping the ball all game continues - Memphis had it for 37 min last year and that fits with Ole Miss current split of 38/22 at 127th nationally in TOP. They score fast and they give their opponents ample opportunities to score as well. All 3 of the FBS QB OM has faced this season (FCS option QB excluded) have been freshman, albeit extremely talented, and they rank 84th nationally in scoring defense giving up 30 ppg. I expect we continue to see tons of big plays in this game, tons of passing and plays. I fully expect OM to get mid 40's and beyond and Memphis get into the mid 20's. I'm very confident OM scores here and I think it's a fair assumption Memphis is pretty good offensively and takes advantage of their beat up secondary. 48-28
 
Thoughts on UT/UGA

This is a really nice situational play on UGA. Coming off a bad loss and Tennessee coming off their biggest win in a decade in a game where they gave all they had and then some. I'll start with my concerns. There is a chance that Georgia is a really bad football team. I mentioned it in the week 1 thread but the most realistic and educated UGA fans I know thought this could easily be a 7 win UGA team. Richt didn't do this program any favors the past few years. He kinda pulled a Tubberville and they are now eating the fruit from that. Marinate on this Mark Richt quote from 2013, “I’ve coached offensive football a long time," Richt said last week. "I don’t want to make anybody mad at Florida State, but we didn’t have dominating offensive lines, but we had some great skill people that were able to make some great plays. If you have a bunch of linemen that know what to do, and can stay coordinated and get their hat on the right guy, and fight like mad, you can neutralize a defender for long enough for a great skill guy to get on by, or get the ball off, whatever it might be." This pretty much explains why UGA consistently underperformed under Richt. They are not very talented on the OL, I believe the LT is a grad transfer from Rhode Island or something like that! They are very thin on the DL and they lack size on the offensive perimeter. The guys they have signed, 31 in the 2013 class for example, 6 are currently still on the two deep.. Let that sink in. They are young and lack quality - their recruiting rankings show they have top 5 talent, they don't certainly not on the OL. They have one four star starting on the OL and the rest 2 or 3. That is Sunbelt level. So I've made a real good case for taking UGA here haha. For me it's almost all about the situation, obviously. Does UT bust another streak in consecutive weeks? They are winless in Athens since 2006. I just can't bring myself to pass on taking UGA as a home dog in this series. Part of this for me is also that I have faded UT every game this season and I will continue to fade them every game as I believe I'll come out ahead at year's end. If UT opens things up offensively like we saw last game I tend to think UGA could be in trouble. That being said, UNC, Mizzou, Ole Miss - those are three really good offensive teams that UGA has played so this should be some class relief for them. I think Eason has the arm to take advantage of a Sutton-less UT secondary. The Vols are without several NFL players on defense and assuming Chaney watching the tape of what Appleby did to them in the 1H last week, I think Isaiah McKenzie will have a really big game. It looks like Chubb status is more hopeful at this point but still uncertain. Personally, I would love to see more of Elijah Holyfield at RB - he is the only man I've ever met that has a physique that rivals my own. I'll call it 27-24 Dawgs on top

 
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]We got to watch LSU practice on Monday for the first time in more than 12 seasons as Les Miles had never opened up a practice to the media. On day one, Ed Orgeron welcomed the media in for the entirety of the 30-minute practice. And what we got to see was a fast-paced, high-energy, tempo practice. Everything happened quickly. They mixed in conditioning in between each snap, and they spent a good amount of time going 11-on-11 with the ones on offense and defense. Danny Etling got the first snaps, but they also worked Brandon Harris with the first-team. And they weren’t the only ones. The RB’s and WR’s were mixing up a good bit, and everyone got their chance to be in for different sets.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Given we had never seen a practice under Miles, how were we supposed to know if it was any different. Sure it was shorter, but how different was the actual practice? When I asked a few sources, all of them immediately said the same thing. It’s a night and day difference - and in a great way.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Here are some notes that I gathered that are worth passing along.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]First off, watching the offense, all the coaches on that side of the ball were getting involved. Orgeron spent some time watching them work through their calls, but he never spoke any words outside of encouragement when things looked crisp. New offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger was clearly the one calling plays from his sheet, and he would stand next to one of the walk-on quarterbacks and tell hi the play, then the quarterback would signal that play into Danny (or Brandon, whoever they had in there at the time). Obviously this mimics how the calls will be passed along on Saturdays with Ensminger in the booth calling plays.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]One thing Orgeron brought up on Monday during his time with the media was that he was putting clock management at the forefront of things that needed to be better. He mentioned having a graduate assistant in the booth on game days whose sole responsibility is clock management. He simply doesn’t want that being something that can burn this team.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Speaking of the clock, I expect the offense is about to pick up the pace. From talking to players and sources, Ensminger and the offensive staff are going to run a tempo offense. “Higher tempo with more plays,” is how one source put it. I also talked with some of the players who told me that Ensminger had told the receivers after his promotion to “get ready, we are about to throw the ball.”[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Speaking of the receivers, wide receivers coach Dameyune Craig is going to be a key piece to the offensive game plan each week. Former offensive coordinator Steve Kragthorpe is, as well. And from what I saw at practice on Monday, so will Jeff Grimes, Jabbar Juluke and new TE's coach Eric Mateos. I’m told this group of coaches meshes really well and all share similar philosophies on what the plan of attack should be.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Is this going to be a whole new offense? Of course not. Even Orgeron said he’s a pro-style offense kind of guy, and he knows LSU has recruited to that. But he also said he wants new calls, he wants more efficient calls, and he wants to be a lot less predictable. Sounds like what most fans have been saying for years.. Orgeron came straight out and said they are going to throw the ball more and he’s done with the days where teams can stack the box on Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice. And for those wondering where Fournette’s head is at, Orgeron said he sat down and chatted with him and Fournette is “all in."[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]The main theme of the day really centered around the practice, which was definitely upbeat. There was tons of energy and guys were jumping around and enjoying it. There was just tons of work put into a small window, and that means more rest and more time in the film room. It’s the NFL-style, and that’s what they want to bring. Some of the players talked about being worn down, and former players I’ve spoken with before would always say that they just got beat up during the week. They would hit for two to three hours in the hot sun each day, and by Saturdays, guys weren’t fresh. They were indoors on Monday and got the work done quickly. Foster Moreau put it well when I spoke with him. He said before it was about the quantity of reps over the quality of reps, and now it’s been switched. He said time off their feet and just studying their mistakes and the opponent is going to be a good change of pace that’s welcomed by the entire team. And for those that follow some of these guys on Twitter, you could tell they were excited after one day with Orgeron. Jamal Adams was the first person I saw speak out last night, and his message was simple. “Tiger Nation, everything will be fine. Trust me.”[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]For Orgeron and this staff, it’s an eight-game audition. The message I got from talking to different people is that this is going to be about 10 weeks of “family” and “building LSU back in the right direction.” They aren’t even entertaining chatter of who the next coach is. Everyone right now is about playing for Coach O and playing for LSU.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Orgeron called for a team dinner last night, and they are going to do that each night going forward. The whole team, the coaches and the staff will all be there eating together and hanging out as a group. After dinner on Monday, Orgeron and the staff put their focus on recruiting for a bit. One thing I will add is that Dameyune Craig a key piece there, and I can pass along that he’s excited about it. They have it in their minds that they are going to both hold this class in place and keep the momentum rolling moving forward with a top five class. Nobody up there blinked over the past 72 hours, and I think that’s been key for both the team and recruiting.[/FONT]
 
Thoughts on Bama/UK:

Really amazing that aside from the Ole Miss game (elite offense) the Bama defense has only allowed 1 TD in 3 games and that was in garbage time after a fumbled exchange as Bama was running the clock out against WKU. Kent State provided nothing last week, their offense is terrible by MAC standards, IMO, so no real surprise there. One stat that was shared on the broadcast that is quite incredible - Bama has scored 16 non offensive TD in the past 19 games. At this point you almost have to expect they score one a game, especially against these far inferior teams where ST's are an even bigger threat to score with more punts and the athleticism gap in the ST units. Kentucky got well defensively last week it appears against USCe keeping them under 4 ypp (NMSU 6.25, UF 6.56, USM 5.48) so to me that is more an indictment of how bad USCe is not that Kentucky all of a sudden figured out how to play. So they are miserable defensively and rely on the offense but I think it's safe to assume they don't pose much of a threat to score on the Bama first team. Current spread and total reflect a 46-11 game. I think the 46 seems fair, that is Bama season average, but again I'm not thinking Kentucky gets to DD. This is one of those games where I want to read more about what Saban is saying throughout the week and get a feel for how focused the team may be. Obviously, the tough stretch starts after this one and they prob don't turn on the tape and see much to get excited about in this one. I'll likely bet Kentucky TT under if at DD as I generally bet every opponent TT under.
 
Thoughts on aTm/USCe

The spot is terrible for aTm and that is about the only thing I can say for why they may not eviscerate USCe here. Coming off of the Arky game, which means a lot to both teams, and UT at home next week. I originally made the line -13/48 prior to last week's games. I also had the aTm/Arky as a pick which upon further review I was about a TD off in my evaluation of aTm so I would make a fairly significant upward adjustment for them. Spread and total reflect a 32.5-15 game. I think it's fairly safe to assume that aTm gets at least to low 30's and I'm trying to envision how USCe scores 3 times..? USCe defense is improved but offense is a train wreck, they have likely settled on McIlwain at QB which is prob a better long term decision but their beat up OL against this DL with a green QB is frightening. I smell blowout here but the spot may be enough to keep me off actually betting it. I'll look at both TT when released as I could be interested in involvement there.
 
Thanks, press. That's really helpful.

Thoughts on Memphis/Ole Miss

Last year Memphis won 37-24 and there were just under 1,000 yards offense and 101 passes thrown. I don't think that Ole Miss will overlook Memphis given how close their campuses are and it being a rivalry* couple with Ole Miss being out for revenge. Memphis is 3-0 with wins over FCS and two teams that are playing at an FCS level - Kansas and Bowling Green. They may be really good, I don't know yet. They have handled business so far and beat the teams in front of them soundly. Kansas actually moved the ball decently against them at 4.6 ypp but they killed themselves with 6 TO and gave Memphis the ball with great field position all game. Last week memphis really came to life beating BG 77-3. They had 8.14 ypp on 635 yards offense and scored about every way you can think of. All of this to say, it seems what Fuente built offensively, there appears to be there won't be the type of dropoff one would expect in losing a 1st round QB and Top 10 head coach. I don't know that for sure but given the info we have now I feel like we can say they look solid offensively but haven't played an offense with a pulse yet, let alone a Top 10 offense like they will see in OM. Here is what we do know about OM, their offense is nasty and got even nastier last week that they put together the run game that helped them balanced at the tail end of last season. The OL was a big concern coming into the year and it appears they may be maturing at the right time. Their problem still is the defense and the style play they implement just makes it hard on their defense. The early season trend of their opponents keeping the ball all game continues - Memphis had it for 37 min last year and that fits with Ole Miss current split of 38/22 at 127th nationally in TOP. They score fast and they give their opponents ample opportunities to score as well. All 3 of the FBS QB OM has faced this season (FCS option QB excluded) have been freshman, albeit extremely talented, and they rank 84th nationally in scoring defense giving up 30 ppg. I expect we continue to see tons of big plays in this game, tons of passing and plays. I fully expect OM to get mid 40's and beyond and Memphis get into the mid 20's. I'm very confident OM scores here and I think it's a fair assumption Memphis is pretty good offensively and takes advantage of their beat up secondary. 48-28

I don't disagree with any of that, and I'll add that the secondary seems to be improving. D. Jones finally got on the field this year at DB after being suspended for the first 3 games and predictably returned an INT for TD. He's an NFL corner if he will give up the pipe dream of being an NFL WR. The game is slowing down for some of the freshmen too. Memphis is going to have some success against them, but they've come a long way since FSU. 48-28 feels right.
 
Thoughts on UT/UGA

This is a really nice situational play on UGA. Coming off a bad loss and Tennessee coming off their biggest win in a decade in a game where they gave all they had and then some. I'll start with my concerns. There is a chance that Georgia is a really bad football team. I mentioned it in the week 1 thread but the most realistic and educated UGA fans I know thought this could easily be a 7 win UGA team. Richt didn't do this program any favors the past few years. He kinda pulled a Tubberville and they are now eating the fruit from that. Marinate on this Mark Richt quote from 2013, “I’ve coached offensive football a long time," Richt said last week. "I don’t want to make anybody mad at Florida State, but we didn’t have dominating offensive lines, but we had some great skill people that were able to make some great plays. If you have a bunch of linemen that know what to do, and can stay coordinated and get their hat on the right guy, and fight like mad, you can neutralize a defender for long enough for a great skill guy to get on by, or get the ball off, whatever it might be." This pretty much explains why UGA consistently underperformed under Richt. They are not very talented on the OL, I believe the LT is a grad transfer from Rhode Island or something like that! They are very thin on the DL and they lack size on the offensive perimeter. The guys they have signed, 31 in the 2013 class for example, 6 are currently still on the two deep.. Let that sink in. They are young and lack quality - their recruiting rankings show they have top 5 talent, they don't certainly not on the OL. They have one four star starting on the OL and the rest 2 or 3. That is Sunbelt level. So I've made a real good case for taking UGA here haha. For me it's almost all about the situation, obviously. Does UT bust another streak in consecutive weeks? They are winless in Athens since 2006. I just can't bring myself to pass on taking UGA as a home dog in this series. Part of this for me is also that I have faded UT every game this season and I will continue to fade them every game as I believe I'll come out ahead at year's end. If UT opens things up offensively like we saw last game I tend to think UGA could be in trouble. That being said, UNC, Mizzou, Ole Miss - those are three really good offensive teams that UGA has played so this should be some class relief for them. I think Eason has the arm to take advantage of a Sutton-less UT secondary. The Vols are without several NFL players on defense and assuming Chaney watching the tape of what Appleby did to them in the 1H last week, I think Isaiah McKenzie will have a really big game. It looks like Chubb status is more hopeful at this point but still uncertain. Personally, I would love to see more of Elijah Holyfield at RB - he is the only man I've ever met that has a physique that rivals my own. I'll call it 27-24 Dawgs on top


i keep reading this and I don't know how you could play UGA here.....that OL is awful. They are gonna get pushed around. You have to remember this team went life and death with Nicholls fucking State. Think about that....that isn't sleep walking, that is being bad.
 
I don't disagree with any of that, and I'll add that the secondary seems to be improving. D. Jones finally got on the field this year at DB after being suspended for the first 3 games and predictably returned an INT for TD. He's an NFL corner if he will give up the pipe dream of being an NFL WR. The game is slowing down for some of the freshmen too. Memphis is going to have some success against them, but they've come a long way since FSU. 48-28 feels right.

Dude where are you guys getting these WR? I have to look up a new guy each game that I didn't even know you had that looks like an NFL type player. Van Jefferson had himself a game and Lodge (my mystery guy of the week) had that nice TD in the 1H.

I thought the secondary was better but also I think that was more a product of UGA dropping 5 balls in first 20 min and then the game got out of balance and it's a lot easier to defend if you're a DB then. They have dropped quite a lot of balls so far this season. After watching more on Eason I wonder if part of the drops are a product of how hard he throws each ball. Kinda has a little Lamar Jackson in him where every pass is a heater.
 
i keep reading this and I don't know how you could play UGA here.....that OL is awful. They are gonna get pushed around. You have to remember this team went life and death with Nicholls fucking State. Think about that....that isn't sleep walking, that is being bad.

You could be right. But both teams could easily be 0-4 if a couple plays went the other way in each game. I do agree that Tennessee has a lot higher upside, no doubt. I'm just committed to fading them each week like I said and I believe I'll come out ahead at year end. So far I'm 2-1-1. I've never done it for a whole season, just ride or fade a team all year but I'm giving it a shot this year even though there are a lot of things that concern me in this game.
 
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