CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
more 153 Beegees OVER, lmao, hilarious, the whole world is on this one. the buyback guys will be coming for under at some point, but how high will it go before they do?
Week 5 RAS/tout/service/Walters release in-game...
- Thread starter CollegeKingRex
- Start date
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
155 Colorado OVER is on the move, not sure who is doing what there. A lot of these totals are moving and I'm seeing little if any respectable activity on the tickers.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
148 Tulsa is seems legit, movers did tag that one.
NYGiants25
NY Giants fan, anyone?
appreciate your time and info rexy :shake:
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
some movement on 157 TCU OVER. Not sure of anything in that game. The CRIS opening total was 51 there and it was sitting at 46.5 since 12:30 p.m. EDT yesterday, and is now back to 48. I never caught anyone betting it going down, and i don't know who is snapping it back
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Big move out in Vegas on 140 Kentucky. The M went to 18 minus 15 a few seconds before any of the 17's started to disappear from the screen. This one reeks of the devil. Good luck trying to beat him betting on or against Kentucky.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
These could be billy: 149 and 189 (I mentioned in post 99) and sitting at key numbers 28 and 21, it would make sense.
I also think he might be on 110 Old Dome UNDER 70 and 111 Fresno -4.5
If you like those sides, I would suggest going. Those prices won't be around later.
I also think he might be on 110 Old Dome UNDER 70 and 111 Fresno -4.5
If you like those sides, I would suggest going. Those prices won't be around later.
YoungGun11
Collaborating w/ Tip
Call me a Newbie here Rex, but who the hell is Billy?
D
dudleysdad
Guest
Rex, I read on another site that in CR the internet may be slowed or something like that over the weekend. Is this true? Wondering if I will have trouble getting on to wager.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
it's 100 percent true. My Betonline buddies actually are flying out of here today and down to their Panama office to work the weekend. Joe's no idiot, but I hope his call to send them down there is wrong here. I am very worried from late tonight until early Sunday that i will have limited or no internet.
i'll try to find a link.
billy = billy walters, the most successful sports bettor of all time
i'll try to find a link.
billy = billy walters, the most successful sports bettor of all time
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
111 is almost definitely billy. he knows that most of these dumbass line movers and robots only watch CRIS and Pinnacle and that two nice bets at those places will cause everyone else to move on air or overreeact. He's trying to see how far he can push this game down before he goes out on the favorite.
Here's the link to the English newspaper down here:
http://www.ticotimes.net/2014/09/25/internet-users-could-face-speed-access-problems-over-the-weekend
Here's the link to the English newspaper down here:
http://www.ticotimes.net/2014/09/25/internet-users-could-face-speed-access-problems-over-the-weekend
captbunch18
Pretty much a regular
pinnacle just hit -3.5
captbunch18
Pretty much a regular
MTSU now down to +1.5
damn....
damn....
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
movers out on Central Michigan +14.5. The RB is back for them AND the WR; makes a shitload of difference. I am going to regret not betting this game me thinks...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
here comes the money for 145 Miami O, and the snapback on 111 Fresneck State
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
small spike on 164 Naval Academy; not sure if it's real or not.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
board lighting up on many of these games, but i don't see anything sharp inthe last 5 minutes except the movers for the pokers flooded the ticker with Cubs OVER 8 even and -105 money, and basically moved the line a full half run.
Game 130 Pitt up to 21, game 142 U of L back to 22, game 187 Fla Int'l down to 16 and 16.5... but again, i see nothing to support these moves, so not sure what the deal is.
Game 130 Pitt up to 21, game 142 U of L back to 22, game 187 Fla Int'l down to 16 and 16.5... but again, i see nothing to support these moves, so not sure what the deal is.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
movers out on 112 Fresno UNDER.
There is a tout (warren) on the 1H UNDER as well, but only at 35.5 or 35, he said at 34.5 it would NOT be a play. I think the other mover could be for spiro, but not sure. Either way, total will drop from 69 even more.
There is a tout (warren) on the 1H UNDER as well, but only at 35.5 or 35, he said at 34.5 it would NOT be a play. I think the other mover could be for spiro, but not sure. Either way, total will drop from 69 even more.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Gautsche out for UNM, so that helped contribute to the Fresno move tonight, but billy is for certain on that side.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Lots of movement right now on the screen, but very little substance to any of it.
I'll jot down a few moves to see if my instinct is correct, and all of this right now is bullshit.
159 Rice total getting bet up to 58.5, which is what the M hotel has had all along; the Mirage still showing 57 but everyone else offshore has gone up. I think it's fake.
167 Arky total going up bit.
171 Norkerlina getting a bit of support.
187 Fla Intl down to 14.5 offshore, still 16 in Vegas
Seems the majority of bets are on Old Dome, but there's a lot of money on the chart for Middle Tennessee in the places i'm looking, which tells me that's probably the smarter side.
I'll jot down a few moves to see if my instinct is correct, and all of this right now is bullshit.
159 Rice total getting bet up to 58.5, which is what the M hotel has had all along; the Mirage still showing 57 but everyone else offshore has gone up. I think it's fake.
167 Arky total going up bit.
171 Norkerlina getting a bit of support.
187 Fla Intl down to 14.5 offshore, still 16 in Vegas
Seems the majority of bets are on Old Dome, but there's a lot of money on the chart for Middle Tennessee in the places i'm looking, which tells me that's probably the smarter side.
Dr. Bob :
(124) ***VIRGINIA (-24) 3-Stars at -24 or less, 2-Stars up to -26, 1-Star up to -27.
(125) ***Western Michigan (+24) 3-Stars at +24 or more, 2-Stars down to +21 ½, 1-Star at +21.
(182) ***NC STATE (+21) 3-Stars at +21 or more, 2-Stars at less than +21.
(196) ***UTAH (-10 ½) 3-Stars at -13 or less and for 2-Stars up to -14.
(127) *Temple (-5) 1-Star at -7 or less.
(132) **PURDUE (+10) 2-Stars at +10 or more, 1-Star down to +7 ½.
(168) *Texas A&M (-9) 1-Star at -10 or less.
(202) ***NEBRASKA (-20 ½) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars up to -23, 1-Star up to -24.
(147-148) **OVER (66) – Texas State at Tulsa: 2-Stars Over 69 or less, 1-Star up to 70 points.
(153-154) *OVER (68 ½) – Bowling Green at Massachusetts: 1-Star Over 69 or less.
(155-156) **UNDER (67) – Colorado at California: 2-Stars Under 66 or more, 1-Star down to 65 points.
(181-182) *OVER (58 ½) – Florida State at NC State: 1-Star Over 61 or less.
I will send out a list of 5 or 6 Strong Opinions that will be posted in the Free Analysis section later today. I'll send them to you before I post them on the free site. I'm not sure of the timing of that email but probably not until after Noon Pacific.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
I also sometimes add Strong Opinion and 1-Star Best Bets on the Free Analysis page as I work on the Free Analysis. Make sure to check the Free Anaylsis pages for added plays or check back here.
***GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-16 ½) 48 Appalachian State 20
Thu Sep-25-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 104 Over/Under 62.0
I’ve won with Georgia Southern the last two weeks and I still see value in backing the Eagles. Georgia Southern is 4-0 ATS and the Eagles have out played NC State and Georgia Tech in close road losses and dominated South Alabama last week on the road with 420 yards at 6.7 yards per play to 296 yards at 3.9 yppl. Overall, excluding the 83-9 romp over Savannah State, Georgia Southern has averaged 470 yards at 7.6 yppl while allowing 433 yards at 5.8 yppl to a trio of FBS teams that are only slightly worse than average. The Eagles run an offense similar to Auburn with a lot of read option and throws against single coverage and dynamic quarterback Keven Ellison run that attack to perfect while averaging 10.8 yards per pass play and 9.8 yards per run. I expect both of those averages to go down since it’s unlikely that Ellison will continue to average over 20 yards per completion (although his career average is 15.7 ypc) and he’s more likely to run closer to his career average of 8.2 yards per rushing play or lower. Appalachian State has only faced one good running team this season and Michigan ran for 358 yards at 10.2 yards per run against the Mountaineers, who don’t defend the pass well either (7.8 yppp allowed in 2 FBS games to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team). This is by far the worst defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season and they should top 40 points even in a game in which there won’t be a lot of plays run.
Appalachian State’s offense has averaged a decent 5.5 yards per play but the Mountaineers have faced 3 teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team and they only averaged 5.2 yppl against a bad Southern Miss defense last week. Appalachian’s attack has been below average in all 3 games (adjusted for opposing defenses) and I project just 5.1 yppl for the Mounties against a Georgia Southern defense that has been much better than anticipated in yielding just 5.8 yppl to 3 FBS teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Eagles’ defense worse than they’ve been but my ratings still project Appalachian to score just 20 points.
Georgia Southern is in a different role as a big favorite but they did beat Savannah State 83-9 as a 40 ½ point favorite in week 2 and new head coach Willie Fritz was never concerned with running up the score at his former post at Sam Houston State, where he posted 13 wins of 25 points or more the last two seasons. I’ll take Georgia Southern in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 and 1-Star up to -21 points.
***Western Michigan (+24) 18 VIRGINIA TECH 32
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 125 Over/Under 54.0
Virginia Tech was overrated after they won at Ohio State and the Hokies still appear to fit that category even after consecutive upset home losses to East Carolina and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech has averaged only 5.2 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yppl and today they are favored by way too many points against a much improved Western Michigan team that is underrated due to last season’s 1-11 disaster in coach P.J. Fleck’s first season on the job. The Broncos’ offense never got on track in 2013 due to inexperience (just 3 returning starters) and the task of learning a new system, but this year that unit returns 9 starters and has added a stud frosh running back. Freshman RB Jarvion Franklin has burst onto the scene with 3 consecutive games of more than 160 rushing yards running behind an experienced offensive line that returned 4 of 5 starters after having zero returning starters last season. Franklin has averaged 181 yards per game at 6.6 yards per run and the Broncos have averaged 283 ground yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play. Those numbers will certainly go down when they start playing better defensive teams, as the teams they’ve faced would combine to allow 6.0 yprp to an average team. However, that’s still 0.8 yprp better than average and the Broncos did run for 7.4 yprp against Purdue, who held their other 3 opponents to just 4.6 yprp, including allowing just 4.6 yprp to Notre Dame. Broncos’ quarterback Zach Terrell was thrown into the fire last year as a freshman and started the last 6 games. His numbers weren’t that impressive but 2nd year sophomore starters tend to show the most improvement and Terrell has completed 62.4% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Western Michigan has averaged 7.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppl to an average attack but I only rate the Broncos at 0.3 yppl better than average since my preseason ratings pegged that unit as worse than average and those ratings still carry some weight until a team has played 4 games.
The Western Michigan defense is a bit better than last season, as the Broncos have allowed 5.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. That 0.5 yppl worse than average rating is the same rating that I assigned them heading into the season and is a slight improvement from last season’s 0.6 yppl worse than average rating. The Broncos have two good cornerbacks in Ronald Zamort and Donald Celiscar, who combined to defend 30 passes last season and have already have 10 passes defended in just 3 games this season. Western Michigan’s defense matches up evenly with yet another worse than average Virginia Tech offense that’s averaged just 5.2 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team.
Virginia Tech’s advantage is with their defense, but it’s not enough of an advantage against the better than average Western Michigan offense to justify such a large spread. The Hokies actually don’t have particularly good defensive numbers, as they’ve allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. However, Virginia Tech is also not going to continue to allow 18.5 yards per completion, and adjusting for that variance would result in a rating of 0.7 yppl better than average for the Hokies’ defense. However, that’s only 0.4 yppl better than Western Michigan’s offensive rating and the match up of the Broncos’ strong rushing attack works for them against a Hokies’ defense that has had trouble defending the run. The Virginia Tech coaching staff had concerns about a defensive front that returned just 1 starter among the front 7 and those concerns have been justified by the 5.6 yards per rushing play that they’re allowing (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average team). Part of the reason Virginia Tech is giving up so many big pass plays is because they have their safeties in the box more often trying to help stop the run. Western Michigan will be happy to run the ball, which is something they’ve done an average of 41 times per game this season and huge underdogs that are expected to have success running the ball are usually good bets. In fact, the Broncos apply to a 57-15-2 ATS statistical match up indicator this is based on that premise. I expect Western Michigan is mitigate Virginia Tech’s defensive speed by running the ball right at their smallish and inexperienced defensive front and Zach Terrell has proven that he can connect down the field with his arm if the Hokies decide to sneak their safeties up to help defend the run (Terrell is averaging 13.2 yards per completion).
Based on this year’s games only the math would favor Virginia Tech by just 9 ½ points in this game and I get 14 points even after adjusting for variance. The only negative is Virginia Tech having a good history in games after consecutive losses (20-5-1 ATS, but no lines this big and only 3 of the 26 games were won by 24 points or more), but team trends aren’t that predictive based on my extensive research into the matter and that trend certainly doesn’t balance out the 57-15-2 ATS match up indicator that favors Western Michigan, or the significant line value. I’ll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +24 or more, for 2-Stars down to +21 ½, and for 1-Star at +21.
***NC STATE (+21) 28 Florida State 39
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 182 Over/Under 58.5
***NC STATE (+21) and *OVER (58 ½)
Florida State started the season as an overrated team and the Seminoles are now 0-3 ATS after needing overtime to get past Clemson last Saturday night. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston did not play in that game and Clemson stacked the line of scrimmage on defense and forced backup quarterback Sean Maguire to beat them with his arm, which he eventually did on one play. With Winston the Seminoles obviously have a very potent offense but the receiving corps, which had 3 star wide receivers last season, has just one go to guy on the perimeter this year in Rashad Greene, who is being depended on too much. Last season is was tough to defend the Seminoles pass attack with 3 dangerous wideouts that all deserved double-teaming, plus TE Nick O’Leary. This season Greene has been the target on 35% of the Seminoles’ passes (and O’Leary 20%), which is an indication that the pass attack isn’t properly balanced (the next most targeted WR has been thrown to just 8 times compared to 37 targets for Greene). Winston has still put up solid numbers (8.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but Winston was an incredible 3.4 yppp better than average last season. With the receiving corps a bit easier to defend the rushing attack also is easier to defend and Florida State has averaged just 4.7 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team). However, those numbers are considerably better when Winston is in the game (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) but they still fall short of last year’s numbers. Florida State still has a great offense and NC State’s defense is suspect (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average stop unit) but the attack that averaged 51.6 points per game last season hasn’t topped 37 points in 3 games this season.
While NC State’s defense is nothing special it appears as if their offense might be. The Wolfpack significantly upgraded the quarterback position with former Florida quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who has completed 70% of his passes while averaging 8.0 yards per pass play against 4 teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Brissett also has thrown just 1 interception and he’s added to a fantastic ground assault that has averaged 6.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team) while averaging 6.1 yprp or more in every game. Florida State’s defensive front has been very good defending the run, as the stating unit has yielded just 3.8 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average defense, but the Seminoles have been exploited through the air so far this season. FSU allowed 7.8 yards per pass play to Oklahoma State and Clemson and my model projects Brissett to average 7.0 yppp in this game while the Wolfpack rushing attack churns out 5.1 yprp. Those numbers would be even higher if I were only using this year’s stats to rate Florida State’s defense but my preseason ratings are still factored in and I had expected the Seminoles to be better defensively.
Overall the math favors Florida State by 18 points and I would get just 14 ½ points using this year’s games only. The main reason for this play is the strong technical analysis favoring NC State. The Wolfpack apply to a 40-4 ATS subset of a 70-29-1 ATS big home underdog momentum situation as well as a 134-79-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on big home underdogs that run the ball well, which makes good sense to me. I’ll take NC State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +21 points or more, for 2-Stars down to +17 ½ and for 1-Star at +17.
I also like the over in this game, as my math projects 67 ½ total points while using this year’s games only would project 70 total points. A lot of that projection is based on NC State performing better offensively than the oddsmakers project and if that is the case then the side will most likely be a winner. Thus, I don’t want to over bet the same game for the same reason, so I’ll only make a small play on the total. I’ll go OVER 61 points or less in a 1-Star Best Bet.
***VIRGINIA (-24) 40 Kent State 6
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 124 Over/Under 44.5
Here we have a case of a team that’s covered the spread in all 4 of their games (Virginia) against a team that is 0-3 ATS (Kent) and the question is whether the difference in expected performance level of these teams is real or just variance. In this case Virginia really is much better than last year’s 2-10 team and Kent State really is much worse than expected. I also looked up how 4-0 ATS teams perform in game 5 against teams with losing spread records and home favorites in that role are 10-3 ATS, including 5-0 ATS hosting a non-conference opponent. I’m obviously not basing this play on that trend but it’s nice to know that there are no contrary forces in play here.
Virginia started the season with a 20-28 loss to highly ranked UCLA and could have won that game had it not been for 3 touchdowns that the Bruins’ defense scored on Cavaliers’ turnovers. After beating up on Richmond 45-13 as a 14 ½ point favorite (that game was actually not as impressive as the UCLA loss) the Cavs upset a solid Louisville team and then played well last week in an 8 point road loss as a 14 ½ point dog at BYU. Overall, Virginia has performed pretty well against a tougher than average schedule, as the Cavaliers have averaged 383 yards at 4.8 yards per play while allowing 350 yards per game at 5.1 yppl against a schedule of teams that would outgain an average FBS team 5.9 yppl to 5.4 yppl.
Virginia is only 0.2 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage but that’s more than good enough to dominate a horrible Kent State team that has been outscored by an average of 9-35 and has home losses to bad teams Ohio and South Alabama. Kent’s offense really misses the big play ability of Dri Archer, who is not in the NFL, and the Golden Flashes have averaged only 3.0 yards per run (Archer averaged 7.8 ypr last season), 4.1 yards per pass play and 3.7 yppl this season. Getting shutout at Ohio State is one thing but averaging only 13.5 points and 286 yards at 4.4 yppl at home against Ohio and South Alabama is pathetic. The Flashes managed just 126 yards at 2.2 yppl against the Buckeyes and I don’t see them having much success in this game (my model projects just 3.1 yppl).
The task for Virginia will be to score 30 points or more that will likely be needed to cover the big line in this game and the fact that they scored 33 points last week against BYU is encouraging. Virginia’s offense has been 0.6 yppl worse than average so far this season but it has been better with backup quarterback Matt Johns in the game, as Johns has been average as a passer (6.3 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) while starting quarterback Greyson Lambert has averaged only 5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB. Lambert is questionable this week after getting injured in the BYU game and it really doesn’t matter too much which quarterback starts this season since Johns has played in all 4 games even with Lambert starting each one. The key to Virginia scoring a lot of points is the horrible Kent State defense that was 0.9 yppl worse than average last season and has been 1.0 yppl worse than average so far this season, allowing 472 yards at 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Ohio is about the same level offensive as Virginia and Kent allowed the Bobcats to rack up 437 yards at 6.4 yppl and the only reason they didn’t allow more than 17 points in that game was because Ohio fumbled the ball away 4 times to ruin scoring opportunities. Virginia has thrown the ball 40 times per game this season and Kent has allowed 70% completions and 8.9 yards per pass play (to teams that would average only 5.7 yppp) so whichever Cavaliers’ quarterback is in the game should find plenty of open receivers to throw to.
My math is calling for a 33 point win by the Cavaliers in this game and Kent applies to a negative 17-44-3 ATS situation that applies to teams that allowed more than 60 points in their last game (it’s 1-7-1 ATS if the team is off a bye week). Virginia also applies to a 106-36-3 ATS statistical match up indicator and my math model works best when it picks a huge home favorite to have a 56% or more chance of covering. In fact, math plays are 73-26-2 ATS when applying to home favorites of 21 points or more, which is another reason why I’m not going to hesitate laying the points here. I have also found that teams that were really bad the previous season (and Virginia was 2-10) tend not to suffer letdowns or look ahead when facing bad teams. In fact, teams that lost 9 or more games the previous season are 39-19 ATS as home favorites of more than 21 points (18-3 ATS against a fellow FBS team). I’ll take Virginia in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -26 points, and for 1-Star up to -27 points.
***UTAH (-10 ½) 44 Washington State 20
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 196 Over/Under 66.0
Utah is 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS after winning 26-10 as an underdog at Michigan and the Utes should continue cashing tickets tonight against a Washington State team that played well last week against Oregon but is only a few points better than an average team. Utah, meanwhile, is a very good team that still isn’t getting enough respect. The Utes have a better than average offense that’s been 0.4 yards per play better than average so far this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and the Utes should have pretty good success again tonight against a Cougars’ stop unit that’s allowed 5.8 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Washington State has faced two better than average offensive teams and the Cougs gave up 41 points on 7.5 yards per play against Rutgers and gave up 38 points on 7.7 yppl last week to Oregon, which was actually a pretty decent performance. My model projects 6.4 yppl for Utah in this game and the Utes are going to have a lot of possessions given how fast paced Washington State’s offense is. Utah has averaged 47 points per game on 6.4 yppl in their first 3 games and I project 44 in this game.
Washington State’s offense is fast paced (78 plays per game in just 28.5 minutes of possession) and quarterback Connor Halliday is having a solid season (7.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback), but the pass heavy Cougars don’t match up well with a very good Utah pass defense that puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback (5.0 sacks per game) and has allowed just 4.1 yards per pass play while facing quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Utah is once again very tough to run against (just 4.5 yprp allowed to 3 pretty good running teams) and Washington State can’t run (3.9 yprp) and doesn’t run (just 16 runs per game), so it all comes down to Utah’s great pass defense, which is better than Washington State’s pass offense. The best pass defense that Washington State has faced this season is actually Nevada (not Oregon, who hasn’t been much better than average) and the Cougars averaged a modest 5.9 yards per pass play in that game and scored just 13 points in an 11 point road loss. I think Washington State will score more than that here but not enough to counter what their defense gives up.
In addition to the significant advantage in yardage stats the Utes are also among the very best teams in regards to special teams, which has been the case every season under coach Whittingham, who stresses that part of the game. The field position advantage in special teams will also help and my math model calls for a pretty easy win by the Utes. In addition to the line value we catch a Washington State team in a 67-153-4 ATS letdown situation that is based on their close loss to Oregon last week. Teams that lose close as big underdogs tend to struggle in their next game and I can certainly see the Cougars spending time thinking about what could have been rather than focusing fully on Utah. I’ll take Utah in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -14 points.
***NEBRASKA (-20 ½) 47 Illinois 16
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 202 Over/Under 65.5
This line might seem pretty big given that Illinois is 3-1 and certainly not a bad team. However, Nebraska is looking like an elite team, as their potent offense is being supported by an improved defense that has yielded just 4.7 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. The Cornhuskers did give up 6.7 yppl and 31 points to Miami last week but the Hurricanes’ freshman quarterback is improving weekly and that offense would average 6.6 yppl against an average defense, so that performance was not too bad. Illinois’ offense looks like a very good unit with 33 points per game 6.5 yards per play but the Illini have faced teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team and they scored just 19 points in their only game against a decent defensive team (Washington). Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, and Texas State are all horrible defensive teams, so racking up big yards and points on those teams is not noteworthy. Illinois has been just mediocre offensively and my model projects only 325 total yards at 4.7 yppl for the Illini in this game.
The big advantage for the Huskers is when they have the ball. Nebraska has a potential All-American running back in Aneer Abdullah, who has already accumulated 625 yards at 6.8 ypr and quarterback Tommy Armstrong is a dual threat averaging 9.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) and adding 89 rushing yards per game at 9.1 yards per run. Overall the Huskers are averaging 45.5 points on 561 yard per game at 7.8 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack. Illinois isn’t bad defensively, and have actually been better than average in allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl to an average team. But, Nebraska just racked up 41 points and 7.0 yards per play last week against a Miami defense that rates a bit better than Illinois’ defense does and my model projects 540 total yards at 7.1 yppl for the Cornhuskers today.
In addition to my model showing significant line value in favor of Nebraska, the Illini apply to a very negative 95-190-5 ATS road letdown situation and I’ll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -23 and 1-Star up to -24 points.
**PURDUE (+10) 21 Iowa 23
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 132 Over/Under 46.5
Iowa finally covered a pointspread after starting the season 0-3 ATS but the Hawkeyes’ upset win over Pitt actually wasn’t that impressive given they were outgained 311 yards at 5.9 yards per play for 437 yards at 6.1 yppl. That performance rated at just 0.5 points better than average from the line of scrimmage after accounting for site and the strength of Pitt and Iowa’s average from the line of scrimmage rating is -3.8 points, which represents how many points worse the Hawkeyes have been from the line of scrimmage this season. Iowa’s biggest issue is an offense that has not been able to consistently move the ball and is void of big plays (aside from the 62 yard pass play last week). The Hawkeyes have averaged just 5.2 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average offensive team and Purdue’s defense has a significant 0.6 yppl advantage in this game given that the Boilermakers are just 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The match up seems to work for Purdue here too, as their defensive weakness is defending the run and it doesn’t appear that Iowa can take advantage of that given that the Hawkeyes have averaged only 4.1 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) and managed just 3.6 yprp in their only other game against a bad run defense (Iowa State). Purdue is solid against the pass (5.6 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense), so whichever Iowa quarterback gets the nod to play (starter Rudock is questionable) isn’t likely to have much success.
Iowa does have a big advantage when Purdue’s terrible offense has the ball, a the Boilermakers are 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively while Iowa is 0.2 yppl better than average defensively. However, overall the yardage projections (341 yards at 4.7 yppl for Iowa and 285 yards at 4.3 yppl for Purdue) is not enough to justify the double-digit spread, especially given that Purdue has an advantage in special teams, which is something the Boilermakers were good at last season too. My math model gives Purdue a very profitable 58.3% chance of covering at +10 points and Iowa is in a letdown spot after last week’s upset win. Iowa is just 7-23 ATS when favored by more than 7 points after a win, including 0-9 ATS on the road, and the Hawkeyes are 1-11 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or more the last 12 seasons. Iowa hasn’t won a game by more than 8 points this season despite being favored by double-digits 3 times. Purdue, meanwhile, is 3-1 ATS and they played admirably in a 14-30 loss to Notre Dame that was closer than the final score indicates (they held ND to just 5.1 yppl). I’ll take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 1-Star down to +7 ½ points.
**UNDER (67) – CALIFORNIA (-14) 38 Colorado 20
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 156 Over/Under 67.0
If Cal found a way not to focus their attention this week on the nightmare loss at Arizona then the Bears should win this game handily. However, I’m more interested in playing the total, as my math model calls for a much lower scoring game than anticipated. First off, Cal’s defense was not as bad last week, even in the 4th quarter, as last week’s 45-49 Hail Mary pass loss at in Tucson might suggest. Cal only gave up 5.6 yards per play to a very good Arizona offense that would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defensive team. Cal also allowed just 4.4 yppl in a win at Northwestern and overall in 3 games the Bears have yielded just 4.9 yppl to a trio of opponents that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Cal’s massive defensive improvement was projected by me before the season started and it’s real, as they’ve been better than average, relative to their opponent, in every game. Colorado’s offense, meanwhile, has averaged a modest 5.5 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team and the Buffaloes are likely to be well under 5 yards per play in this game. Colorado figures to run a lot of plays, since both teams run up-tempo offenses, but my model projects a below average 372 total yards for the Buffs.
Cal’s offense has been very good in averaging 528 yards at 7.0 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and the math projects 454 yards at 7.1 yppl in this game against a solid Colorado stop unit that’s yielded just 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl to an average team. There should be a good number of points scored in this game, as my model projects 58 total points, but that’s significantly below the posted total and the line value stems from the fact that Cal’s defense is much better than is perceived. There is also talk this week that Cal’s 4th quarter defensive collapse, after holding Arizona to just 13 points through 3 quarters, was due to fatigue by the defense and that coach Dykes may slow down the pace of his no-huddle offense should the Bears have a comfortable 4th quarter lead today, which I believe they will, although I assumed they’ll play at their normal pace. I’ll go Under 66 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet and Under for 1-Star down to 65 points.
As far as the side is concerned, my math model actually gives Cal a 59% chance of covering at -14 points but the Bears apply to a very negative 55-151-1 ATS situation that is based on last week’s close loss. I’ll still lean with the Bears since the line value trumps the situation in this case.
**OVER (66) – TULSA (-3) 38 Texas State 37
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 147 Over/Under 66.0
These two teams have gone over the total in 5 of their combined 6 games and I don’t see that trend ending today. Not only does each team run their offense at a quick pace but both teams have been horrible defensively and are decent offensively on a compensated yards per play basis. Texas State has averaged 539 yards per game at 6.4 yards per play, but the Bobcats are really just mediocre on a yards per play basis after adjusting for the opposing defenses they’ve faced – although they’d still rack up a lot of yards even with average yppl numbers because of the 85 plays per game that they run. The Tulsa offense also runs a lot of plays per game (84.0) and they’ve averaged 434 total yards per game despite managing just 5.2 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane actually rate 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with quarterback Dane Evans in the game.
Both of those offenses figure to perform much better than average in this game given the defenses they’ll been facing. Texas State rates at 1.3 yards per play worse than average and allowed 7.4 yppl to both of the FBS teams that they faced (Navy and Illinois) while Tulsa has been incredibly bad in allowing 44.3 points and 538 yards per game at 7.8 yppl to Tulane (7.0 yppl), Oklahoma (8.4 yppl) and a bad Florida Atlantic offense (8.0 yppl allowed in that game). Tulsa has been 2.3 yppl worse than average, which is puzzling given that the Golden Hurricane have the same defensive coordinator as the previous 3 seasons and 10 of last year’s 11 defensive starters are back from a unit that was only 0.2 yppl worse than average in 2013. Of course, the one player that didn’t return was their best defensive player, LB Shawn Jackson, who had 124 tackles, including 18.5 total tackles for loss, with 5 interceptions and 8 total passes defended, which is a lot for a linebacker. While I could certainly see Tulsa’s defense being worse without Jackson, it’s still unreasonable to expect a change of one player to account for a defense being 2.1 yppl worse. I could understand if there were one horrendous game that was skewing their numbers, but that has not been the case as Tulsa has been horrible defensively in every game. My model does adjust for variance in some statistics and actually adjusted Tulsa’s defensive rating to 1.7 yppl worse than average rather than the -2.3 yppl rating they’ve played to so far this season, and doing that would project Texas State to gain 556 yards at 6.8 yppl in this game. The projection for the Tulsa offense is 553 yards at 7.0 yppl and the model using this year’s games only favors Texas State by 1.4 points with 79.4 total points.
However, I still can’t wrap my head around Tulsa’s defense being so much worse than last season so I decided to use the defensive rating for the Hurricane defense using all 15 games since the start of last season, adjusting for the impact that Jacksons’ stats would have on last year’s numbers if they were without him (a 0.28 yppl difference). The result would be a defensive rating of 0.9 yppl worse than average for those 15 games adjusted for not having Jackson. If I use that rating then the math would favor Tulsa by 5.3 points, which is where the line was earlier this week, but I would still get a projected total of 74.9 points. So, the best case scenario for Tulsa’s defense would still yield 75 total points while the variance adjusted version (my normal model using this year’s games only) would predict 79.4 points and a model that doesn’t adjust for variance would predict 83.6 total points. This game is likely to go over the posted total regardless of how I crunch the numbers and I’d lean with Texas State plus the points since the Bobcats do apply to a 104-43-1 ATS statistical match up indicator. But, the play here is on the over and I’ll go OVER 69 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 1-Star up to 70 points.
*OVER (68 ½) – Bowling Green (-4 ½) 39 MASSACHUSETTS 36
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 154 Over/Under 68.5
I expect a lot of points in this game, as both teams play at a faster than average pace (particularly Bowling Green) and both teams are expected to move the ball at better than average rates. Bowling Green runs an offense that is as fast paced as any team in the nation, as the Falcons run 3.12 plays per minute of possession (79.0 plays per game on an average of 25.35 minutes), which would equate to 93.5 plays if they had the ball for 30 minutes per game. U Mass hasn’t had the ball that often (just 23.23 minutes per game) but they’ve averaged 2.64 plays per minute of possession, which would equate to 79.1 plays if they had the ball for 30 minutes. Neither team is close to having the ball for 30 minutes per game but one of these teams has to have the ball for at least 30 minutes today and the number of plays projected if each has the ball for 30 minutes is 172.6 plays. My model actually projects Bowling Green to have the ball for more possession time and projects 173.4 total points. That’s a lot of plays and that should lead to a lot of points with two teams expected to move the ball pretty well.
Bowling Green’s offense is slightly worse than average as far as yards per play is concerned (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but the Falcons’ pass heavy attack (46 pass plays per game and 33 rushing plays) matches up well against a U Mass defense that’s average against the run but has allowed 6.7 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team. Bowling Green is projected to average a modest 5.7 yards per play, but to gain 519 yards because of how many plays the Falcons are expected to run.
The U Mass offense also throws more than they run it and quarterback Blake Frohnapfel has averaged 5.7 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Those numbers are skewed by a couple of 77 yard pass plays and it’s unlikely that Frohnapfel will continue to average 14.0 yards per completion. I’ve adjusted for that variance in my model and the U Mass pass attack actually rates at 0.3 yppp worse than average while the rushing attack is dreadful (3.3 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team). I actually expect U Mass to have good success moving the ball in this game against a Bowling Green defense that’s allowed 615 yards per game at 7.2 yards per play to a collection of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Those numbers actually aren’t skewed much by the 10.0 yards per play they allowed last week at Wisconsin, as the Falcons also gave up 702 yards at 7.2 yppl to Western Kentucky ad 582 yards at 7.5 yppl to Indiana. Bowling Green is terrible defending the run (6.6 yprp allowed) and the pass (7.8 yppp allowed) and while the Falcons’ bad defense isn’t going to solve the U Mass running problem (4.2 yprp projected) the Minutemen are projected to average 8.0 yards per pass play against a Falcons’ defense that has allowed 70% completions this season. U Mass is projected to gain 518 yards at 6.3 yppl against Bowling Green’s woeful defense.
With both teams projected to gain over 500 yards my math model projects 75 total points. Let’s just hope these two teams can turn those yards into points in an efficient manner – and I see no reason that they won’t after taking a look at each team’s yards per point efficiency numbers, which actually would project even more points. I’ll go OVER 69 points or less in a 1-Star Best Bet.
*Texas A&M (-9) 43 Arkansas 27
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 168 Over/Under 71.5
Texas A&M is known for their offense with Kenny Hill seamlessly replacing Johnny Manziel in an attack averaging 55.3 points on 614 yards at 8.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team). However, what makes Texas A&M special this season is a defense that is playing at a high level. Freshman DE Myles Garrett has exceeded the hype and is an All-American candidate with 5 ½ sacks in his first 4 games and overall the Aggies’ defense has yielded just 11.8 points per game and 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl. I realize that A&M has played a couple of bad offenses (Lamar and SMU), but they’ve been 0.5 yppl better than average against the two better than average offensive teams that they’ve faced (South Carolina and Rice) while allowing an average of just 19 points in those two games. An Arkansas offense with a punishing rushing attack will be a challenge (they average 272 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play against 3 FBS teams that would allow just 4.6 yprp to an average team) but A&M has been 0.7 yprp better than average defensively (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) so they should slow down the Razorbacks’ rushing attack a bit (although my model still projects 273 rushing yards at 5.6 yprp). Razorbacks’ quarterback Brandon Allen is healthy this season and has performed at an above average level with 6.5 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Allen is also being smart with the ball and has thrown just 1 interception in 4 games this season and it’s unlikely that he’ll throw a pick in this game. Overall Arkansas has been 0.8 yards per play better than average, which is a bit better than the A&M defense, and my math model projects better than average numbers (430 yards at 5.9 yards per play) for Arkansas in this game.
Unfortunately for Razorbacks fans that level of offense isn’t likely to be enough to stay close to the Aggies in this game. Kevin Sumlin’s offenses have been very good everywhere he’s been and it was no surprise to me that the A&M attack would be potent again even without Johnny Manziel and big play WR Mike Evans. Kenny Hill has averaged a very impressive 9.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback and the rushing attack has chipped in with 216 yards per game at 6.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). While it’s Arkansas that is known for their rushing attack, Texas A&M actually has been just as good – although that’s not the case if I include Arkansas’ game against a horrible Nicholls State team. While there isn’t much difference in the rushing attacks the passing advantage clearly is with Texas A&M and the Aggies have a better defense. Arkansas has allowed 6.3 yppl to 3 FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team and that simply isn’t good enough to keep Texas A&M from racking up a lot of points – although the Aggies won’t have as many plays as usual because Arkansas is projected to have a 6 minute edge in time of possession.
Overall, the math favors Arkansas by 15 ½ points on a neutral field, which is solid line value. I’ll take Texas A&M in a 1-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
*Temple (-5) 30 CONNECTICUT 17
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 127 Over/Under 45.0
Connecticut hasn’t covered a spread all season (0-4 ATS) and the Huskies’ only straight up win was by just 3 points, 19-16, as a 16 ½ point home favorite against FCS weakling Stony Brook. Temple’s only loss was a competitive 24-31 affair against a good Navy squad and the Owls have easily dispatched of their other two opponents – winning 37-7 as a dog at Vanderbilt to open the season and cruising to a 59-0 win over a horrible Delaware State team last week. I rate Temple at 6.5 points worse than an average team based on their two games against FBS foes but that should be good enough to beat U Conn by a touchdown or more. The Huskies are terrible offensively (4.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) and are worse than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team), and my model favors the Owls by 7 ½ points in this game. The reason for this play is certainly not the little bit of line value but rather two good situations (one is 144-65-3 ATS and the other is 124-52-3 ATS) that combine to go 21-0-1 ATS when both apply to the same side, which is the case here. I’ll take Temple in a 1-Star Best Bet
(124) ***VIRGINIA (-24) 3-Stars at -24 or less, 2-Stars up to -26, 1-Star up to -27.
(125) ***Western Michigan (+24) 3-Stars at +24 or more, 2-Stars down to +21 ½, 1-Star at +21.
(182) ***NC STATE (+21) 3-Stars at +21 or more, 2-Stars at less than +21.
(196) ***UTAH (-10 ½) 3-Stars at -13 or less and for 2-Stars up to -14.
(127) *Temple (-5) 1-Star at -7 or less.
(132) **PURDUE (+10) 2-Stars at +10 or more, 1-Star down to +7 ½.
(168) *Texas A&M (-9) 1-Star at -10 or less.
(202) ***NEBRASKA (-20 ½) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars up to -23, 1-Star up to -24.
(147-148) **OVER (66) – Texas State at Tulsa: 2-Stars Over 69 or less, 1-Star up to 70 points.
(153-154) *OVER (68 ½) – Bowling Green at Massachusetts: 1-Star Over 69 or less.
(155-156) **UNDER (67) – Colorado at California: 2-Stars Under 66 or more, 1-Star down to 65 points.
(181-182) *OVER (58 ½) – Florida State at NC State: 1-Star Over 61 or less.
I will send out a list of 5 or 6 Strong Opinions that will be posted in the Free Analysis section later today. I'll send them to you before I post them on the free site. I'm not sure of the timing of that email but probably not until after Noon Pacific.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
I also sometimes add Strong Opinion and 1-Star Best Bets on the Free Analysis page as I work on the Free Analysis. Make sure to check the Free Anaylsis pages for added plays or check back here.
***GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-16 ½) 48 Appalachian State 20
Thu Sep-25-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 104 Over/Under 62.0
I’ve won with Georgia Southern the last two weeks and I still see value in backing the Eagles. Georgia Southern is 4-0 ATS and the Eagles have out played NC State and Georgia Tech in close road losses and dominated South Alabama last week on the road with 420 yards at 6.7 yards per play to 296 yards at 3.9 yppl. Overall, excluding the 83-9 romp over Savannah State, Georgia Southern has averaged 470 yards at 7.6 yppl while allowing 433 yards at 5.8 yppl to a trio of FBS teams that are only slightly worse than average. The Eagles run an offense similar to Auburn with a lot of read option and throws against single coverage and dynamic quarterback Keven Ellison run that attack to perfect while averaging 10.8 yards per pass play and 9.8 yards per run. I expect both of those averages to go down since it’s unlikely that Ellison will continue to average over 20 yards per completion (although his career average is 15.7 ypc) and he’s more likely to run closer to his career average of 8.2 yards per rushing play or lower. Appalachian State has only faced one good running team this season and Michigan ran for 358 yards at 10.2 yards per run against the Mountaineers, who don’t defend the pass well either (7.8 yppp allowed in 2 FBS games to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team). This is by far the worst defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season and they should top 40 points even in a game in which there won’t be a lot of plays run.
Appalachian State’s offense has averaged a decent 5.5 yards per play but the Mountaineers have faced 3 teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team and they only averaged 5.2 yppl against a bad Southern Miss defense last week. Appalachian’s attack has been below average in all 3 games (adjusted for opposing defenses) and I project just 5.1 yppl for the Mounties against a Georgia Southern defense that has been much better than anticipated in yielding just 5.8 yppl to 3 FBS teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Eagles’ defense worse than they’ve been but my ratings still project Appalachian to score just 20 points.
Georgia Southern is in a different role as a big favorite but they did beat Savannah State 83-9 as a 40 ½ point favorite in week 2 and new head coach Willie Fritz was never concerned with running up the score at his former post at Sam Houston State, where he posted 13 wins of 25 points or more the last two seasons. I’ll take Georgia Southern in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 and 1-Star up to -21 points.
***Western Michigan (+24) 18 VIRGINIA TECH 32
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 125 Over/Under 54.0
Virginia Tech was overrated after they won at Ohio State and the Hokies still appear to fit that category even after consecutive upset home losses to East Carolina and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech has averaged only 5.2 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yppl and today they are favored by way too many points against a much improved Western Michigan team that is underrated due to last season’s 1-11 disaster in coach P.J. Fleck’s first season on the job. The Broncos’ offense never got on track in 2013 due to inexperience (just 3 returning starters) and the task of learning a new system, but this year that unit returns 9 starters and has added a stud frosh running back. Freshman RB Jarvion Franklin has burst onto the scene with 3 consecutive games of more than 160 rushing yards running behind an experienced offensive line that returned 4 of 5 starters after having zero returning starters last season. Franklin has averaged 181 yards per game at 6.6 yards per run and the Broncos have averaged 283 ground yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play. Those numbers will certainly go down when they start playing better defensive teams, as the teams they’ve faced would combine to allow 6.0 yprp to an average team. However, that’s still 0.8 yprp better than average and the Broncos did run for 7.4 yprp against Purdue, who held their other 3 opponents to just 4.6 yprp, including allowing just 4.6 yprp to Notre Dame. Broncos’ quarterback Zach Terrell was thrown into the fire last year as a freshman and started the last 6 games. His numbers weren’t that impressive but 2nd year sophomore starters tend to show the most improvement and Terrell has completed 62.4% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Western Michigan has averaged 7.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppl to an average attack but I only rate the Broncos at 0.3 yppl better than average since my preseason ratings pegged that unit as worse than average and those ratings still carry some weight until a team has played 4 games.
The Western Michigan defense is a bit better than last season, as the Broncos have allowed 5.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. That 0.5 yppl worse than average rating is the same rating that I assigned them heading into the season and is a slight improvement from last season’s 0.6 yppl worse than average rating. The Broncos have two good cornerbacks in Ronald Zamort and Donald Celiscar, who combined to defend 30 passes last season and have already have 10 passes defended in just 3 games this season. Western Michigan’s defense matches up evenly with yet another worse than average Virginia Tech offense that’s averaged just 5.2 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team.
Virginia Tech’s advantage is with their defense, but it’s not enough of an advantage against the better than average Western Michigan offense to justify such a large spread. The Hokies actually don’t have particularly good defensive numbers, as they’ve allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. However, Virginia Tech is also not going to continue to allow 18.5 yards per completion, and adjusting for that variance would result in a rating of 0.7 yppl better than average for the Hokies’ defense. However, that’s only 0.4 yppl better than Western Michigan’s offensive rating and the match up of the Broncos’ strong rushing attack works for them against a Hokies’ defense that has had trouble defending the run. The Virginia Tech coaching staff had concerns about a defensive front that returned just 1 starter among the front 7 and those concerns have been justified by the 5.6 yards per rushing play that they’re allowing (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average team). Part of the reason Virginia Tech is giving up so many big pass plays is because they have their safeties in the box more often trying to help stop the run. Western Michigan will be happy to run the ball, which is something they’ve done an average of 41 times per game this season and huge underdogs that are expected to have success running the ball are usually good bets. In fact, the Broncos apply to a 57-15-2 ATS statistical match up indicator this is based on that premise. I expect Western Michigan is mitigate Virginia Tech’s defensive speed by running the ball right at their smallish and inexperienced defensive front and Zach Terrell has proven that he can connect down the field with his arm if the Hokies decide to sneak their safeties up to help defend the run (Terrell is averaging 13.2 yards per completion).
Based on this year’s games only the math would favor Virginia Tech by just 9 ½ points in this game and I get 14 points even after adjusting for variance. The only negative is Virginia Tech having a good history in games after consecutive losses (20-5-1 ATS, but no lines this big and only 3 of the 26 games were won by 24 points or more), but team trends aren’t that predictive based on my extensive research into the matter and that trend certainly doesn’t balance out the 57-15-2 ATS match up indicator that favors Western Michigan, or the significant line value. I’ll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +24 or more, for 2-Stars down to +21 ½, and for 1-Star at +21.
***NC STATE (+21) 28 Florida State 39
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 182 Over/Under 58.5
***NC STATE (+21) and *OVER (58 ½)
Florida State started the season as an overrated team and the Seminoles are now 0-3 ATS after needing overtime to get past Clemson last Saturday night. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston did not play in that game and Clemson stacked the line of scrimmage on defense and forced backup quarterback Sean Maguire to beat them with his arm, which he eventually did on one play. With Winston the Seminoles obviously have a very potent offense but the receiving corps, which had 3 star wide receivers last season, has just one go to guy on the perimeter this year in Rashad Greene, who is being depended on too much. Last season is was tough to defend the Seminoles pass attack with 3 dangerous wideouts that all deserved double-teaming, plus TE Nick O’Leary. This season Greene has been the target on 35% of the Seminoles’ passes (and O’Leary 20%), which is an indication that the pass attack isn’t properly balanced (the next most targeted WR has been thrown to just 8 times compared to 37 targets for Greene). Winston has still put up solid numbers (8.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but Winston was an incredible 3.4 yppp better than average last season. With the receiving corps a bit easier to defend the rushing attack also is easier to defend and Florida State has averaged just 4.7 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team). However, those numbers are considerably better when Winston is in the game (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) but they still fall short of last year’s numbers. Florida State still has a great offense and NC State’s defense is suspect (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average stop unit) but the attack that averaged 51.6 points per game last season hasn’t topped 37 points in 3 games this season.
While NC State’s defense is nothing special it appears as if their offense might be. The Wolfpack significantly upgraded the quarterback position with former Florida quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who has completed 70% of his passes while averaging 8.0 yards per pass play against 4 teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Brissett also has thrown just 1 interception and he’s added to a fantastic ground assault that has averaged 6.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team) while averaging 6.1 yprp or more in every game. Florida State’s defensive front has been very good defending the run, as the stating unit has yielded just 3.8 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average defense, but the Seminoles have been exploited through the air so far this season. FSU allowed 7.8 yards per pass play to Oklahoma State and Clemson and my model projects Brissett to average 7.0 yppp in this game while the Wolfpack rushing attack churns out 5.1 yprp. Those numbers would be even higher if I were only using this year’s stats to rate Florida State’s defense but my preseason ratings are still factored in and I had expected the Seminoles to be better defensively.
Overall the math favors Florida State by 18 points and I would get just 14 ½ points using this year’s games only. The main reason for this play is the strong technical analysis favoring NC State. The Wolfpack apply to a 40-4 ATS subset of a 70-29-1 ATS big home underdog momentum situation as well as a 134-79-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on big home underdogs that run the ball well, which makes good sense to me. I’ll take NC State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +21 points or more, for 2-Stars down to +17 ½ and for 1-Star at +17.
I also like the over in this game, as my math projects 67 ½ total points while using this year’s games only would project 70 total points. A lot of that projection is based on NC State performing better offensively than the oddsmakers project and if that is the case then the side will most likely be a winner. Thus, I don’t want to over bet the same game for the same reason, so I’ll only make a small play on the total. I’ll go OVER 61 points or less in a 1-Star Best Bet.
***VIRGINIA (-24) 40 Kent State 6
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 124 Over/Under 44.5
Here we have a case of a team that’s covered the spread in all 4 of their games (Virginia) against a team that is 0-3 ATS (Kent) and the question is whether the difference in expected performance level of these teams is real or just variance. In this case Virginia really is much better than last year’s 2-10 team and Kent State really is much worse than expected. I also looked up how 4-0 ATS teams perform in game 5 against teams with losing spread records and home favorites in that role are 10-3 ATS, including 5-0 ATS hosting a non-conference opponent. I’m obviously not basing this play on that trend but it’s nice to know that there are no contrary forces in play here.
Virginia started the season with a 20-28 loss to highly ranked UCLA and could have won that game had it not been for 3 touchdowns that the Bruins’ defense scored on Cavaliers’ turnovers. After beating up on Richmond 45-13 as a 14 ½ point favorite (that game was actually not as impressive as the UCLA loss) the Cavs upset a solid Louisville team and then played well last week in an 8 point road loss as a 14 ½ point dog at BYU. Overall, Virginia has performed pretty well against a tougher than average schedule, as the Cavaliers have averaged 383 yards at 4.8 yards per play while allowing 350 yards per game at 5.1 yppl against a schedule of teams that would outgain an average FBS team 5.9 yppl to 5.4 yppl.
Virginia is only 0.2 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage but that’s more than good enough to dominate a horrible Kent State team that has been outscored by an average of 9-35 and has home losses to bad teams Ohio and South Alabama. Kent’s offense really misses the big play ability of Dri Archer, who is not in the NFL, and the Golden Flashes have averaged only 3.0 yards per run (Archer averaged 7.8 ypr last season), 4.1 yards per pass play and 3.7 yppl this season. Getting shutout at Ohio State is one thing but averaging only 13.5 points and 286 yards at 4.4 yppl at home against Ohio and South Alabama is pathetic. The Flashes managed just 126 yards at 2.2 yppl against the Buckeyes and I don’t see them having much success in this game (my model projects just 3.1 yppl).
The task for Virginia will be to score 30 points or more that will likely be needed to cover the big line in this game and the fact that they scored 33 points last week against BYU is encouraging. Virginia’s offense has been 0.6 yppl worse than average so far this season but it has been better with backup quarterback Matt Johns in the game, as Johns has been average as a passer (6.3 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) while starting quarterback Greyson Lambert has averaged only 5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB. Lambert is questionable this week after getting injured in the BYU game and it really doesn’t matter too much which quarterback starts this season since Johns has played in all 4 games even with Lambert starting each one. The key to Virginia scoring a lot of points is the horrible Kent State defense that was 0.9 yppl worse than average last season and has been 1.0 yppl worse than average so far this season, allowing 472 yards at 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Ohio is about the same level offensive as Virginia and Kent allowed the Bobcats to rack up 437 yards at 6.4 yppl and the only reason they didn’t allow more than 17 points in that game was because Ohio fumbled the ball away 4 times to ruin scoring opportunities. Virginia has thrown the ball 40 times per game this season and Kent has allowed 70% completions and 8.9 yards per pass play (to teams that would average only 5.7 yppp) so whichever Cavaliers’ quarterback is in the game should find plenty of open receivers to throw to.
My math is calling for a 33 point win by the Cavaliers in this game and Kent applies to a negative 17-44-3 ATS situation that applies to teams that allowed more than 60 points in their last game (it’s 1-7-1 ATS if the team is off a bye week). Virginia also applies to a 106-36-3 ATS statistical match up indicator and my math model works best when it picks a huge home favorite to have a 56% or more chance of covering. In fact, math plays are 73-26-2 ATS when applying to home favorites of 21 points or more, which is another reason why I’m not going to hesitate laying the points here. I have also found that teams that were really bad the previous season (and Virginia was 2-10) tend not to suffer letdowns or look ahead when facing bad teams. In fact, teams that lost 9 or more games the previous season are 39-19 ATS as home favorites of more than 21 points (18-3 ATS against a fellow FBS team). I’ll take Virginia in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -26 points, and for 1-Star up to -27 points.
***UTAH (-10 ½) 44 Washington State 20
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 196 Over/Under 66.0
Utah is 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS after winning 26-10 as an underdog at Michigan and the Utes should continue cashing tickets tonight against a Washington State team that played well last week against Oregon but is only a few points better than an average team. Utah, meanwhile, is a very good team that still isn’t getting enough respect. The Utes have a better than average offense that’s been 0.4 yards per play better than average so far this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and the Utes should have pretty good success again tonight against a Cougars’ stop unit that’s allowed 5.8 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Washington State has faced two better than average offensive teams and the Cougs gave up 41 points on 7.5 yards per play against Rutgers and gave up 38 points on 7.7 yppl last week to Oregon, which was actually a pretty decent performance. My model projects 6.4 yppl for Utah in this game and the Utes are going to have a lot of possessions given how fast paced Washington State’s offense is. Utah has averaged 47 points per game on 6.4 yppl in their first 3 games and I project 44 in this game.
Washington State’s offense is fast paced (78 plays per game in just 28.5 minutes of possession) and quarterback Connor Halliday is having a solid season (7.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback), but the pass heavy Cougars don’t match up well with a very good Utah pass defense that puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback (5.0 sacks per game) and has allowed just 4.1 yards per pass play while facing quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Utah is once again very tough to run against (just 4.5 yprp allowed to 3 pretty good running teams) and Washington State can’t run (3.9 yprp) and doesn’t run (just 16 runs per game), so it all comes down to Utah’s great pass defense, which is better than Washington State’s pass offense. The best pass defense that Washington State has faced this season is actually Nevada (not Oregon, who hasn’t been much better than average) and the Cougars averaged a modest 5.9 yards per pass play in that game and scored just 13 points in an 11 point road loss. I think Washington State will score more than that here but not enough to counter what their defense gives up.
In addition to the significant advantage in yardage stats the Utes are also among the very best teams in regards to special teams, which has been the case every season under coach Whittingham, who stresses that part of the game. The field position advantage in special teams will also help and my math model calls for a pretty easy win by the Utes. In addition to the line value we catch a Washington State team in a 67-153-4 ATS letdown situation that is based on their close loss to Oregon last week. Teams that lose close as big underdogs tend to struggle in their next game and I can certainly see the Cougars spending time thinking about what could have been rather than focusing fully on Utah. I’ll take Utah in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -14 points.
***NEBRASKA (-20 ½) 47 Illinois 16
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 06:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 202 Over/Under 65.5
This line might seem pretty big given that Illinois is 3-1 and certainly not a bad team. However, Nebraska is looking like an elite team, as their potent offense is being supported by an improved defense that has yielded just 4.7 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. The Cornhuskers did give up 6.7 yppl and 31 points to Miami last week but the Hurricanes’ freshman quarterback is improving weekly and that offense would average 6.6 yppl against an average defense, so that performance was not too bad. Illinois’ offense looks like a very good unit with 33 points per game 6.5 yards per play but the Illini have faced teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team and they scored just 19 points in their only game against a decent defensive team (Washington). Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, and Texas State are all horrible defensive teams, so racking up big yards and points on those teams is not noteworthy. Illinois has been just mediocre offensively and my model projects only 325 total yards at 4.7 yppl for the Illini in this game.
The big advantage for the Huskers is when they have the ball. Nebraska has a potential All-American running back in Aneer Abdullah, who has already accumulated 625 yards at 6.8 ypr and quarterback Tommy Armstrong is a dual threat averaging 9.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) and adding 89 rushing yards per game at 9.1 yards per run. Overall the Huskers are averaging 45.5 points on 561 yard per game at 7.8 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average attack. Illinois isn’t bad defensively, and have actually been better than average in allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl to an average team. But, Nebraska just racked up 41 points and 7.0 yards per play last week against a Miami defense that rates a bit better than Illinois’ defense does and my model projects 540 total yards at 7.1 yppl for the Cornhuskers today.
In addition to my model showing significant line value in favor of Nebraska, the Illini apply to a very negative 95-190-5 ATS road letdown situation and I’ll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -23 and 1-Star up to -24 points.
**PURDUE (+10) 21 Iowa 23
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 132 Over/Under 46.5
Iowa finally covered a pointspread after starting the season 0-3 ATS but the Hawkeyes’ upset win over Pitt actually wasn’t that impressive given they were outgained 311 yards at 5.9 yards per play for 437 yards at 6.1 yppl. That performance rated at just 0.5 points better than average from the line of scrimmage after accounting for site and the strength of Pitt and Iowa’s average from the line of scrimmage rating is -3.8 points, which represents how many points worse the Hawkeyes have been from the line of scrimmage this season. Iowa’s biggest issue is an offense that has not been able to consistently move the ball and is void of big plays (aside from the 62 yard pass play last week). The Hawkeyes have averaged just 5.2 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average offensive team and Purdue’s defense has a significant 0.6 yppl advantage in this game given that the Boilermakers are just 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The match up seems to work for Purdue here too, as their defensive weakness is defending the run and it doesn’t appear that Iowa can take advantage of that given that the Hawkeyes have averaged only 4.1 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) and managed just 3.6 yprp in their only other game against a bad run defense (Iowa State). Purdue is solid against the pass (5.6 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense), so whichever Iowa quarterback gets the nod to play (starter Rudock is questionable) isn’t likely to have much success.
Iowa does have a big advantage when Purdue’s terrible offense has the ball, a the Boilermakers are 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively while Iowa is 0.2 yppl better than average defensively. However, overall the yardage projections (341 yards at 4.7 yppl for Iowa and 285 yards at 4.3 yppl for Purdue) is not enough to justify the double-digit spread, especially given that Purdue has an advantage in special teams, which is something the Boilermakers were good at last season too. My math model gives Purdue a very profitable 58.3% chance of covering at +10 points and Iowa is in a letdown spot after last week’s upset win. Iowa is just 7-23 ATS when favored by more than 7 points after a win, including 0-9 ATS on the road, and the Hawkeyes are 1-11 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or more the last 12 seasons. Iowa hasn’t won a game by more than 8 points this season despite being favored by double-digits 3 times. Purdue, meanwhile, is 3-1 ATS and they played admirably in a 14-30 loss to Notre Dame that was closer than the final score indicates (they held ND to just 5.1 yppl). I’ll take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 1-Star down to +7 ½ points.
**UNDER (67) – CALIFORNIA (-14) 38 Colorado 20
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 156 Over/Under 67.0
If Cal found a way not to focus their attention this week on the nightmare loss at Arizona then the Bears should win this game handily. However, I’m more interested in playing the total, as my math model calls for a much lower scoring game than anticipated. First off, Cal’s defense was not as bad last week, even in the 4th quarter, as last week’s 45-49 Hail Mary pass loss at in Tucson might suggest. Cal only gave up 5.6 yards per play to a very good Arizona offense that would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defensive team. Cal also allowed just 4.4 yppl in a win at Northwestern and overall in 3 games the Bears have yielded just 4.9 yppl to a trio of opponents that would combine to average just 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Cal’s massive defensive improvement was projected by me before the season started and it’s real, as they’ve been better than average, relative to their opponent, in every game. Colorado’s offense, meanwhile, has averaged a modest 5.5 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team and the Buffaloes are likely to be well under 5 yards per play in this game. Colorado figures to run a lot of plays, since both teams run up-tempo offenses, but my model projects a below average 372 total yards for the Buffs.
Cal’s offense has been very good in averaging 528 yards at 7.0 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and the math projects 454 yards at 7.1 yppl in this game against a solid Colorado stop unit that’s yielded just 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl to an average team. There should be a good number of points scored in this game, as my model projects 58 total points, but that’s significantly below the posted total and the line value stems from the fact that Cal’s defense is much better than is perceived. There is also talk this week that Cal’s 4th quarter defensive collapse, after holding Arizona to just 13 points through 3 quarters, was due to fatigue by the defense and that coach Dykes may slow down the pace of his no-huddle offense should the Bears have a comfortable 4th quarter lead today, which I believe they will, although I assumed they’ll play at their normal pace. I’ll go Under 66 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet and Under for 1-Star down to 65 points.
As far as the side is concerned, my math model actually gives Cal a 59% chance of covering at -14 points but the Bears apply to a very negative 55-151-1 ATS situation that is based on last week’s close loss. I’ll still lean with the Bears since the line value trumps the situation in this case.
**OVER (66) – TULSA (-3) 38 Texas State 37
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 147 Over/Under 66.0
These two teams have gone over the total in 5 of their combined 6 games and I don’t see that trend ending today. Not only does each team run their offense at a quick pace but both teams have been horrible defensively and are decent offensively on a compensated yards per play basis. Texas State has averaged 539 yards per game at 6.4 yards per play, but the Bobcats are really just mediocre on a yards per play basis after adjusting for the opposing defenses they’ve faced – although they’d still rack up a lot of yards even with average yppl numbers because of the 85 plays per game that they run. The Tulsa offense also runs a lot of plays per game (84.0) and they’ve averaged 434 total yards per game despite managing just 5.2 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane actually rate 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with quarterback Dane Evans in the game.
Both of those offenses figure to perform much better than average in this game given the defenses they’ll been facing. Texas State rates at 1.3 yards per play worse than average and allowed 7.4 yppl to both of the FBS teams that they faced (Navy and Illinois) while Tulsa has been incredibly bad in allowing 44.3 points and 538 yards per game at 7.8 yppl to Tulane (7.0 yppl), Oklahoma (8.4 yppl) and a bad Florida Atlantic offense (8.0 yppl allowed in that game). Tulsa has been 2.3 yppl worse than average, which is puzzling given that the Golden Hurricane have the same defensive coordinator as the previous 3 seasons and 10 of last year’s 11 defensive starters are back from a unit that was only 0.2 yppl worse than average in 2013. Of course, the one player that didn’t return was their best defensive player, LB Shawn Jackson, who had 124 tackles, including 18.5 total tackles for loss, with 5 interceptions and 8 total passes defended, which is a lot for a linebacker. While I could certainly see Tulsa’s defense being worse without Jackson, it’s still unreasonable to expect a change of one player to account for a defense being 2.1 yppl worse. I could understand if there were one horrendous game that was skewing their numbers, but that has not been the case as Tulsa has been horrible defensively in every game. My model does adjust for variance in some statistics and actually adjusted Tulsa’s defensive rating to 1.7 yppl worse than average rather than the -2.3 yppl rating they’ve played to so far this season, and doing that would project Texas State to gain 556 yards at 6.8 yppl in this game. The projection for the Tulsa offense is 553 yards at 7.0 yppl and the model using this year’s games only favors Texas State by 1.4 points with 79.4 total points.
However, I still can’t wrap my head around Tulsa’s defense being so much worse than last season so I decided to use the defensive rating for the Hurricane defense using all 15 games since the start of last season, adjusting for the impact that Jacksons’ stats would have on last year’s numbers if they were without him (a 0.28 yppl difference). The result would be a defensive rating of 0.9 yppl worse than average for those 15 games adjusted for not having Jackson. If I use that rating then the math would favor Tulsa by 5.3 points, which is where the line was earlier this week, but I would still get a projected total of 74.9 points. So, the best case scenario for Tulsa’s defense would still yield 75 total points while the variance adjusted version (my normal model using this year’s games only) would predict 79.4 points and a model that doesn’t adjust for variance would predict 83.6 total points. This game is likely to go over the posted total regardless of how I crunch the numbers and I’d lean with Texas State plus the points since the Bobcats do apply to a 104-43-1 ATS statistical match up indicator. But, the play here is on the over and I’ll go OVER 69 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 1-Star up to 70 points.
*OVER (68 ½) – Bowling Green (-4 ½) 39 MASSACHUSETTS 36
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 154 Over/Under 68.5
I expect a lot of points in this game, as both teams play at a faster than average pace (particularly Bowling Green) and both teams are expected to move the ball at better than average rates. Bowling Green runs an offense that is as fast paced as any team in the nation, as the Falcons run 3.12 plays per minute of possession (79.0 plays per game on an average of 25.35 minutes), which would equate to 93.5 plays if they had the ball for 30 minutes per game. U Mass hasn’t had the ball that often (just 23.23 minutes per game) but they’ve averaged 2.64 plays per minute of possession, which would equate to 79.1 plays if they had the ball for 30 minutes. Neither team is close to having the ball for 30 minutes per game but one of these teams has to have the ball for at least 30 minutes today and the number of plays projected if each has the ball for 30 minutes is 172.6 plays. My model actually projects Bowling Green to have the ball for more possession time and projects 173.4 total points. That’s a lot of plays and that should lead to a lot of points with two teams expected to move the ball pretty well.
Bowling Green’s offense is slightly worse than average as far as yards per play is concerned (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but the Falcons’ pass heavy attack (46 pass plays per game and 33 rushing plays) matches up well against a U Mass defense that’s average against the run but has allowed 6.7 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team. Bowling Green is projected to average a modest 5.7 yards per play, but to gain 519 yards because of how many plays the Falcons are expected to run.
The U Mass offense also throws more than they run it and quarterback Blake Frohnapfel has averaged 5.7 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Those numbers are skewed by a couple of 77 yard pass plays and it’s unlikely that Frohnapfel will continue to average 14.0 yards per completion. I’ve adjusted for that variance in my model and the U Mass pass attack actually rates at 0.3 yppp worse than average while the rushing attack is dreadful (3.3 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team). I actually expect U Mass to have good success moving the ball in this game against a Bowling Green defense that’s allowed 615 yards per game at 7.2 yards per play to a collection of teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Those numbers actually aren’t skewed much by the 10.0 yards per play they allowed last week at Wisconsin, as the Falcons also gave up 702 yards at 7.2 yppl to Western Kentucky ad 582 yards at 7.5 yppl to Indiana. Bowling Green is terrible defending the run (6.6 yprp allowed) and the pass (7.8 yppp allowed) and while the Falcons’ bad defense isn’t going to solve the U Mass running problem (4.2 yprp projected) the Minutemen are projected to average 8.0 yards per pass play against a Falcons’ defense that has allowed 70% completions this season. U Mass is projected to gain 518 yards at 6.3 yppl against Bowling Green’s woeful defense.
With both teams projected to gain over 500 yards my math model projects 75 total points. Let’s just hope these two teams can turn those yards into points in an efficient manner – and I see no reason that they won’t after taking a look at each team’s yards per point efficiency numbers, which actually would project even more points. I’ll go OVER 69 points or less in a 1-Star Best Bet.
*Texas A&M (-9) 43 Arkansas 27
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 168 Over/Under 71.5
Texas A&M is known for their offense with Kenny Hill seamlessly replacing Johnny Manziel in an attack averaging 55.3 points on 614 yards at 8.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team). However, what makes Texas A&M special this season is a defense that is playing at a high level. Freshman DE Myles Garrett has exceeded the hype and is an All-American candidate with 5 ½ sacks in his first 4 games and overall the Aggies’ defense has yielded just 11.8 points per game and 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl. I realize that A&M has played a couple of bad offenses (Lamar and SMU), but they’ve been 0.5 yppl better than average against the two better than average offensive teams that they’ve faced (South Carolina and Rice) while allowing an average of just 19 points in those two games. An Arkansas offense with a punishing rushing attack will be a challenge (they average 272 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play against 3 FBS teams that would allow just 4.6 yprp to an average team) but A&M has been 0.7 yprp better than average defensively (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) so they should slow down the Razorbacks’ rushing attack a bit (although my model still projects 273 rushing yards at 5.6 yprp). Razorbacks’ quarterback Brandon Allen is healthy this season and has performed at an above average level with 6.5 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Allen is also being smart with the ball and has thrown just 1 interception in 4 games this season and it’s unlikely that he’ll throw a pick in this game. Overall Arkansas has been 0.8 yards per play better than average, which is a bit better than the A&M defense, and my math model projects better than average numbers (430 yards at 5.9 yards per play) for Arkansas in this game.
Unfortunately for Razorbacks fans that level of offense isn’t likely to be enough to stay close to the Aggies in this game. Kevin Sumlin’s offenses have been very good everywhere he’s been and it was no surprise to me that the A&M attack would be potent again even without Johnny Manziel and big play WR Mike Evans. Kenny Hill has averaged a very impressive 9.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback and the rushing attack has chipped in with 216 yards per game at 6.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). While it’s Arkansas that is known for their rushing attack, Texas A&M actually has been just as good – although that’s not the case if I include Arkansas’ game against a horrible Nicholls State team. While there isn’t much difference in the rushing attacks the passing advantage clearly is with Texas A&M and the Aggies have a better defense. Arkansas has allowed 6.3 yppl to 3 FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team and that simply isn’t good enough to keep Texas A&M from racking up a lot of points – although the Aggies won’t have as many plays as usual because Arkansas is projected to have a 6 minute edge in time of possession.
Overall, the math favors Arkansas by 15 ½ points on a neutral field, which is solid line value. I’ll take Texas A&M in a 1-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
*Temple (-5) 30 CONNECTICUT 17
Sat Sep-27-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 127 Over/Under 45.0
Connecticut hasn’t covered a spread all season (0-4 ATS) and the Huskies’ only straight up win was by just 3 points, 19-16, as a 16 ½ point home favorite against FCS weakling Stony Brook. Temple’s only loss was a competitive 24-31 affair against a good Navy squad and the Owls have easily dispatched of their other two opponents – winning 37-7 as a dog at Vanderbilt to open the season and cruising to a 59-0 win over a horrible Delaware State team last week. I rate Temple at 6.5 points worse than an average team based on their two games against FBS foes but that should be good enough to beat U Conn by a touchdown or more. The Huskies are terrible offensively (4.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) and are worse than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team), and my model favors the Owls by 7 ½ points in this game. The reason for this play is certainly not the little bit of line value but rather two good situations (one is 144-65-3 ATS and the other is 124-52-3 ATS) that combine to go 21-0-1 ATS when both apply to the same side, which is the case here. I’ll take Temple in a 1-Star Best Bet
