Week 5 NFL Discussion

Cutler is tough, Dalton doesn't suck

"Fade the public" is garbage in this sport, I know that and so does my bookie
 
Isn't Dalton pretty much always a top 5 fantasy QB?

Obviously that doesn't mean much in the betting world, but he's always underrated imo and having AJ clearly factors into that, but so does getting to play against the Browns and Steelers and Ravens six times a year
 
I say this all the time. It's not just about "fading the public".... It's about Fading shady lines.


Lines can only be made so high or so low.

What do you guys think the pats line should be? -13, 14? -17?


Books have to release lines. -10 is not weak for a team coming off being shut out with a quarterback who some think will be rusty. I think the line is kosher.

Hopefully Sarah Thomas isn't in Cleveland on Sunday.
 
nbafan88 said:
The steelers line is not bait. Pitt opened at -4.5 vs KC. What would you expect the line to be if this game was in the meadowlands? The line is fair


now that philly line is bait
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Line in April was Lions -1, that being said away faves off a bye is one of the best spot bets in the league.

Not sure Wentz has the girth right now to carry so many people on his dick though, currently 80%+ on Philly.
 
nbafan88 said:
Most obvious play of the week is the pats.

Playing Devils advocate. DD home dogs are hitting at a very high clip. I just cannot see how Brady doesn't come out and throw a minimum of 3 TDs. I'll be hard pressed to not be on the pats TT over. I don't think Tom just sat at home on his couch.

this coupled with the pats being shut out last week at home vs the bills....hoodie won't be very pleased this week
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nope, he sat naked on a lounge chair in italy

nbafan88 said:
Wait a second. The colts don't have a bye after going to London? WTF. This has to be the first time....

personally I think the bears are the better football team
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kinda agree

kjohnson109 said:
Chicago are a more complete team than Indy, and the situation obviously is silly. Hell, saying Chicago are more complete than anything more than a hot dog is silly as well.
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line seems surprisingly high, I made it 3 so 4.5 and holding steady is odd

D-Woww said:
yeah im gonna be on cleveland. if refs didnt call that insane taunting on Pryor for giving the ball to an official, parkey makes 1 of 3 fgs, and the refs dont magically see a fumble recovery that didnt happen, the browns could very well be 3-1. 10 points is a ton.

Also, huge spot, imo, for Atlanta to come back down to earth. Will be looking to play denver.
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no fear about Paxton? I agree that ATL is not this good

scarf31 said:
I think you are right, NBA...I saw this last night and was floored. I am almost positive every team after the London game has had a bye week since they implemented the overseas games.

Saw yesterday Bears were getting 5...against a team with a decimated O Line, D Line, no Secondary and who has traveled across the Atlantic Ocean less than 6 days before their next game. Horrible spot for the Colts. NFL did them no favors here and I like the kid back for the Bears who showed some life on Sunday...if Hoyer doesn't hand the ball over multiple times, it's gonna be hard for me to not play Bears plus points.

However if Cutler starts, he's such a buzzkill, gutless fuck that I may just pass on the game. Give Hoyer this...dude has limited talent, but he doesn't have a lack of heart, just a major lack of talent...and anyone against that Colts shitshow on D can look good. First spot I circled when looking at schedule yesterday.
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seems shady

scarf31 said:
Jets secondary in complete shambles right now...Revis is banged up, they've got no corner oppo him that can play...the kid Pryor from Louisville has had major regression this year and this year (like the last 30 years), they CANNOT (for some reason) cover a tight end. Decker and Marshall need to play and Fitz can't be the same QB who has thrown 9 INT the last 2 games. If the Steel O Line gives him any time at all vs. the very good Jets D Line/Front 7, they will annihilate New York throwing the ball down the field. It's not even the AB factor....they have zero chance of being able to cover how Pitt uses Coates, Wheaton and Heyward-Bey (as guys to air it out down the field to)...that's not even counting AB.

Gonna be a loooooonnnngggg day for my team. Worst spot possible for them to go into.
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think they're my survivor pick, but when do they go to Geno? Ever?

XhuegoX said:
I'm on Arizona for the Thursday night game.

Losing Bowman is hugeeeeee for the 49ers defense. Not only is he responsible for calling plays, he also makes sure all the players are in the right position, etc before the snap. Once he left the game vs Cowboys, the rush defense was comical. Ezekiel Elliott was running through holes so big...it was like a high school game. There's no way the 49ers can make the necessary adjustments by Thursday. There's absolutely no one on the defense that can replace Bowman. The roster is thin as shit due to horrible drafting and sitting on $50 Million cap space that they didn't use during the off season.

The 49ers have no home field advantage. During Sundays game I could hear the crowd chanting "Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys". Its NEVER loud when the opponent is on offense. I doubt Arizona will be effected by the crowd at all. Levi stadium is horrible and the niner fans have given up on the season. I'm not sure how many points the line is shaded towards the niners here due to home field advantage...but it shouldnt be more than 1 point.

I trust the Arizona coaching staff to do a better job getting the team prepared on a short week. Stanton has been with the team for 3 seasons now and he's familiar with the system. The Cards have a bunch of veterans who know the importance of this game...if they lose this their season is over. The Cards have issues, but for this week they will do enough to beat the niners.

I will also be on some David Johnson props...niners front 7 without Bowman is going to be pathetic. With Stanton starting, the Cards should lean on the run all night long.
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don't love SF at all, rather happy with myself laying off them last week actually, but ARI is in a tailspin and probably won't have Palmer so while I understand not backing SF i can't comprehend laying 3 on the road. Also think that number is higher than it should be, which supports your play, but doesn't make sense

nbafan88 said:
Honestly don't see what people see in the Bengals. Such a bad team imo
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nbafan88 said:
Andy dalton sucks. Sanu was a big loss. Their red zone offense is blah. Their backs are overrated. I'll be on Dallas.
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Why does Dalton suck? He had a great year last year and hasn't done anything this year to make us question him. I think he's one of the better QBs in a league of average or worse ones and with A.J. Green they can beat anybody
 
Lareux said:
Okay sure. Then, let's see where they rank at the end of the year and see how silly it was to proclaim them as "something" 4 games into the season.

One also doesn't have to bet team totals and not get frustrated either right? Sounds like you hold some grudges when you place losing bets...that's a horrible way to go about this.
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at least he backs off ridiculous statements instead of digging his heels in further. Give him that

...and Raems it's been a while but i'm jealous of how sharp you're being this week however i think that type of card would make it very difficult to watch lol
 
GWarner27 said:
at least he backs off ridiculous statements instead of digging his heels in further. Give him that

...and Raems it's been a while but i'm jealous of how sharp you're being this week however i think that type of card would make it very difficult to watch lol
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being "sharp" led me to a 1-4 record last week lol.

obviously variance, but sometimes i wonder if you just take NE, Denver, Minny and Pittsburgh every week if thats not hte way to go
 
D-Woww said:
being "sharp" led me to a 1-4 record last week lol.

obviously variance, but sometimes i wonder if you just take NE, Denver, Minny and Pittsburgh every week if thats not hte way to go
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In 2009, the Saints, Pats and Colts put my bookie out of business. He was telling me that bettors that had lost money for years to him were putting in huge bets on the big faves and parlaying all of them, and they just kept hitting. He ended up retiring mid-season. Sometimes, the public wins
 
you guys aren't sold on ATL? Man they look pretty good to me.....the running game has been the shocker
 
twinkie13 said:
you guys aren't sold on ATL? Man they look pretty good to me.....the running game has been the shocker
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In their 3 wins they've faced the 2 worst Run defense in the sport...smacked the Pans but we all agree Car isn't the same team, but a good win nevertheless. Thing that bothers me most is they also are 2nd worst in league at defending the pass (YPG). This week is a great test to see where they are. Just not sold yet...
 
No line for Monday night because of Cam's injury. But Cam needs to do a better job of getting in the end zone and not walking that one in and avoiding the hit. That injury was on Cam and was avoidable. I can't see him missing this game though, he's pretty tough.
 
The falcons offense is so much better this year. They take more risks and just have a great handle of keeping the defenses off balance.
 
The issue with the panthers is that they have become too predictable imo. The defense really needs to improve to take some pressure off the offense.
 
nbafan88 said:
The issue with the panthers is that they have become too predictable imo. The defense really needs to improve to take some pressure off the offense.
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They should've resigned Josh Norman. Giving up 500 yards last week was embarrassing.
 
nbafan88 said:
The issue with the panthers is that they have become too predictable imo. The defense really needs to improve to take some pressure off the offense.
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Panthers offense has regressed to the mean which was somewhat expected after exceeding their offensive expectations last season.

Most concerning thing is their defense which was not supposed to drop-off like this, with or without Josh Norman.

This team is done for the postseason, imo. 7-9 or 6-10 record this season.

Basically they've gotten soft.
 
cogenman said:
No line for Monday night because of Cam's injury. But Cam needs to do a better job of getting in the end zone and not walking that one in and avoiding the hit. That injury was on Cam and was avoidable. I can't see him missing this game though, he's pretty tough.
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hate that he did that and part of me hopes it keeps him out a little while to punish him for it, but concussions aren't about toughness like a bruise or pull are. Really out of his hands and he took a shot, so while he gets the extra day to Monday it ups his chances but it's not a pain tolerance thing

emkee said:
Panthers offense has regressed to the mean which was somewhat expected after exceeding their offensive expectations last season.

Most concerning thing is their defense which was not supposed to drop-off like this, with or without Josh Norman.

This team is done for the postseason, imo. 7-9 or 6-10 record this season.

Basically they've gotten soft.
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i think i'm more concerned with ARI assuming Cam returns this week
 
Patriots go bananas this week vs the Browns, and not just because tommy boy is back. I may on an alternate spread, and expect a great performance from the Pats D. Line is right and the Pats will probably still cover it by 10+. Kessler under a 3rd string center, you don't think the Pats will scheme to blow up that interior?
 
Lexington 125 said:
Patriots go bananas this week vs the Browns, and not just because tommy boy is back. I may on an alternate spread, and expect a great performance from the Pats D. Line is right and the Pats will probably still cover it by 10+. Kessler under a 3rd string center, you don't think the Pats will scheme to blow up that interior?
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yeah just seems too easy, but as we have talked about in this very thread, that is not the way to cap games. Logic does say Pats win 27-6
 
emkee said:
They're in Denver this week, return to the mean for the Dirty Birds.
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Not an easy place to play as a visiting team. The crowd is always loud, altitude does have an effect and Denver is just a better team IMHO.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Patriots go bananas this week vs the Browns, and not just because tommy boy is back. I may on an alternate spread, and expect a great performance from the Pats D. Line is right and the Pats will probably still cover it by 10+. Kessler under a 3rd string center, you don't think the Pats will scheme to blow up that interior?
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[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody>[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]10/09

1:00 PM


455 NE-T BRADY
456 CLE-C Kessler
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]89%
11%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]68%
32%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]81%
19%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Off a loss, Brady back vs the Cleveland Shit-stains. They could make that line 14 and still get 80%+ action on the Pats.

We could debate whether these consensus sites are entirely accurate or not but heavy road faves get buried with such a number often.
 
Sportsinsights is not a consensus site. Consensus sites are like waterline etc. And there is really nothing to debate.


You could look at it two ways. On one hand the line looks short. On the other there is no line that is reasonable at this point in the season that would sway off pats action.

Ill be on pats TT over
 
I pay less and less attention to public% and line movement as the years go on. I know this is an unpopular opinion to many cappers. Public plays win every week. Unpopular home dogs get smoked every week. Just have to sift through the card and pick the right ones.
 
nbafan88 said:
Sportsinsights is not a consensus site. Consensus sites are like waterline etc. And there is really nothing to debate.


You could look at it two ways. On one hand the line looks short. On the other there is no line that is reasonable at this point in the season that would sway off pats action.

Ill be on pats TT over
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Agree with everything here. Pats will hang 28 minimum and could approach 50 on the high end if the offense is rolling. Assuming Pats do what they do on D and eliminate the Browns best playmaker in Pryor, I don't see how the Browns manage more than a score or 2 and that feels generous.
 
tonight's game is getting heavy under action... at first glance i thought 43 is pretty high....
 
Was 42 last night when I saw it, expecting big game from DJ but that cost me a fuck ton expecting that on Sunday
 
Fact is, back-up QB laying a FG and change vs a team that is perceived to play better at home.

#lightbulb
 
D. Johnson over 91.5 Rush Yards prop for me. No starting DL, no Bowman, back up QB = lots of rushing yards for DJ.
 
Betting on the NFL is easy now guys: just take short road favs that the public is on & youre golden
 
D-Woww said:
Betting on the NFL is easy now guys: just take short road favs that the public is on & youre golden
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It's perception man. Too many wannabe 'sharps' around now.

As said above, a back-up QB was laying a FG+ on the road to a team that was perceived to be an okay home team.

Cards were in no way a 'public' bet.

Road faves of -4 or less are only 8-8 SU (7-8-1 ATS) so far this season.

Road faves of any spread only 10-9 SU (7-11-1 ATS) in 2016.
 
Locked in Indy -4.5 tonight. 2-0 betting sides this year, I'm very selective with them. Think Indy wins by double digits easily. Defense getting healthier and think they come out super motivated this week. Bears dealing with injuries all over their offense
 
triceratops said:
Locked in Indy -4.5 tonight. 2-0 betting sides this year, I'm very selective with them. Think Indy wins by double digits easily. Defense getting healthier and think they come out super motivated this week. Bears dealing with injuries all over their offense
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Agree completely. Think Luck may be the qb to own this week DFS.
 
Roethlisberger has thrown three or more touchdown passes in five straight home games and has an absurd 47:13 TD-to-INT ratio at home since the beginning of the 2014 season.
 
Just put Pitt in as my survivor pic but this game worries me for some reason. Indy would be another good choice.
 
triceratops said:
Locked in Indy -4.5 tonight. 2-0 betting sides this year, I'm very selective with them. Think Indy wins by double digits easily. Defense getting healthier and think they come out super motivated this week. Bears dealing with injuries all over their offense
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even though the colts are coming back from london, i do lean that way as well... that defense still blows though
 
Some interesting line moves. Pitt moves to -9 and Oakland -3. If it's bait, I just fell for it and took the Raiders -3. What am I missing? Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead are out. SD defense not that impressive giving up 27 points a game. SD on the road. Carr with an excellent 9:1 TD to INT ratio in sample size though. I thought this line should be around Oak -4.
 
Anyone happen to see The Swami (Berman) is 18-4 ATS so far this year? Correction to the mean coming, but when? This week, I can't recall all his plays, but I believe they included: Dallas, Philly, Buffalo, Tennessee and I think Houston? Can anyone else confirm?
 
Props Ive locked in

Sharpe over 45.5 -115
cobb over 58.5 -115
parker over 52.5 -115
gronk over 52.5 -115
djax over 60.5 -115
j white over 34.4 -115

Colts -4.5 and texans +7 for sides
 
scarf31 said:
Just making a generalization, Tito. I hadn't read anything about him potentially starting...the guy should just be cut now to rid the team of the cancerous presence that he is. His team in Chicago is ready to end...everyone would agree on that.
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I actually wouldn't agree with that. I think it is easy for people not close to the situation to make opinions about Cutler based on the fact of how his facial expressions come across and even body language does as well. The fact is that Cutler isn't gutless, and he is very well respected in the locker room generally speaking. Keep in mind that he is one of two players on the team that was there in 2011. That's a crazy stat. He is tough and goes hard. Every time he ends up hurt it is "he is soft" or "he has no heart" but that isn't the case at all. He's still one of the better QB's in the league if he could ever get some consistency in his teammates, or the systems he runs.
 
coming back from loondon is not a problem; teams are 15-12ATS back from london trip in their next game
 
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