need a nevada push .. broadway joe analysis please.
Nevada +4
let me start with some of my opinions on this unlv team. this is the first wager that i will have made this season involving this team. obviously the very impressive win against arizona state no matter where you have arizona state ranked vs the other teams (i thought they were HIGHLY overrated coming into the season). that game was also the worst possible spot for asu, as they had ga on deck and had just beat a conf team soundly that they matched up great against. questions coming into this game for asu were the secondary and the offensive line, both of which were answered in this game as unlv was able to take advantage of both. the asu pass rush was hindered by a mobile qb, and secondary exploited at certain times when they needed it. the asu offensive line was, well, the asu offensive line. extremely impressive win that i certainly wasn't expecting, but timing was part of it. extremely even game that came down to asu being awful in the category of red zone offense, and a bad throw by carpenter. they definitely weren't ready to play that game, and they're not nearly as good as they were advertised to be, as shown by the ass whooping by ga that was a lot more lopsided than the game seemed. still a great win, and i'm taking nothing away from this team because i do like them...just pointing out a few things.
unlv has been impressive, but aside from that game, they beat utah state (so what), was completely dominated by a very good utah team, and had some trouble putting iowa state away in a game they more or less dominated. to me, we still don't really have a good grasp of what this can and cannot do. what i like about this team: a very efficient, balanced, and talented offense. clayton is an emerging star, summers is a beast, and they have 3 more than capable wideouts. they haven't made many mistakes this year. the matt murphy led line has been outperforming. the offense is fine.
and yet this very good offense will be very refreshing to nevada in terms of what they've been used to. they've faced arguably the two most potent offenses in america in back to back weeks. they hung very tough in a relative sense vs texas tech as i have mentioned before...i was actually impressed with their effort considering their opponent. they were actually able to outgain texas tech, which is very hard to do, and they won t.o.p. and rushing battle (obviously less impressive vs a team like texas tech, but still worth noting considering the conferences and teams). they were in the game until the very end...and kaepernick showed how good he is hanging 350+ yards on em. now obviously the missouri game was a different story and they got their asses kicked, but part of that snowball was two very big plays very early in the game that changed the course of the game for nevada and kept them from playing the way they need to play because of their running offense. a 59 yard td run, nevada punted at midfield, then a 80 yard td pass were the first two scores of the game and put nevada in a 14-0 hole, then they were in catch up mode, and that's not a good mode to be in vs nevada. there were very distinct differences in that game. nevada puts pressure on the qb in order to hide their secondary weaknesses. they were not able to do that at all vs missouri, and chase daniels had all day to throw. i am confident that they will get a lot more pressure on clayton with the line he has in front of him. this will stop unlv from passing all over them, although they should have decent success. i don't think they'll be able to run as effectively as last year, because i believe nevada's front 7 is improved.
that matchup probs unlv face is on the other side of the ball. iowa state and utah were both able to pound the rock with good olines. nevada has a good oline as well, and i expect their ypc to be right around the middle of these two squads at about 5 or so. i've mentioned before how good i think kaepernick is, and i think he controls this game along with taua and fragger. unlike last year, when they won, they should have a distinct advantage in rushing yards and t.o.p. asu lacks the toughness up front to exploit this unlv defense, but nevada does not. unlv had to replace their two good dends, and beau bells replacement fuimaono went down before the asu game and some other linebackers are banged up. this doesn't help a unlv group that was already bottom tier in stopping the run. nevada has been running all over big 12 schools, and they will have no problems doing so here. the secondary was a bigger question mark coming in for the rebels, particularly at safety, where the safety has to be an important part of defending this type of offense. i think this offense is very underrated just due to the nature of the competition so far. i love kaepernick (if you can't tell), and unlv hasn't really seen a qb that can do as many things well as he does (brian johnson, who dominated them, but even he is not exactly the same type of qb)
in this matchup i'm getting +155 with the better qb, arguably the better team in the trenches, the better defense, and a team that i'm confident will have a significant running game advantage. they beat this team last year without a lot of these advantages, and they're 4-1 ATS L5 against them.
i'll mention the bye, as it usually does help either the inferior or the hungrier team, but i don't hold a lot of weight to it as some others do most of the time. i do think it'll help them get over the mizzou slaughter, which is a good thing. i would expect both teams to be completely focused, so that's not an issue either way. i'm not sure really how much line value we're getting...may be some perception value here, but i think even at the beginning of the year unlv is favored by 2 or so...but oh well.
if this wasn't an instate rivalry on the road (where nevada has struggled a bit), i think nevada might just completely run away with it. i still think they win by a couple of scores here...38-24
