Week 5 Discussion

emkee said:
Brought this trend up before. Chicago was in the same spot and won (covered) vs the Jets.
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true, but were basically gifted a win with a first-drive pick-6 then a fumbled punt/bs pass interference that gave a second TD
 
austinhous said:
true, but were basically gifted a win with a first-drive pick-6 then a fumbled punt/bs pass interference that gave a second TD
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Come on.. You could do this for every game that has or has not covered a spread to support or not support a trend.. Probably more of a coincidence than a trend
 
aplous said:
Survivor thoughts?


Saints at home off a loss
Denver at home off a loss and bye
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I've used both but I think Denver should handle the Cards at home.
I'm stuck myself, not sure whether to use GB or NYG. Starting to lean G-Men.
 
I think the line is dropping in GB, despite Ponder news, because the weather forecast calls for a sloppy game and could be somewhat of an equalizer for Minny.
 
Two Utes said:
I've used both but I think Denver should handle the Cards at home.
I'm stuck myself, not sure whether to use GB or NYG. Starting to lean G-Men.
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If I were choosing it would be between; NO, Detroit, Sf, Pitt, Seattle. All of them have their issues tho.

NO 1-3 playing against a tampa team nothing to lose.

Detroit: see Kyle Orton and det ability to play down to teams.

SF: more ups and downs than a roller coaster

pitt: Jags win at some point don't they?

Seattle: long flight on East Coast and Skins will bounce bac plus never been good on road.

This is a tough week for Survivor as I see about 41% of people left are on NO. I just hate going with a 1-3 team whose only win was barely against the Vikes.
 
Two Utes said:
I've used both but I think Denver should handle the Cards at home.
I'm stuck myself, not sure whether to use GB or NYG. Starting to lean G-Men.
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NYG is giving way too much even with the ATL injuries, GB is certainly trustable and a possibility but i don't think there's a spot where you want to use NO for a while

...also while I think DEN wins I wouldn't want to make a survivor pick against the next Super Bowl champion
 
like the over tonight.. hope the weather will scare people and knock them number down by kickoff...
 
Speaking of weather. Can anyone confirm the wind tonight? is it going to be bad. i think i saw 10-15 mph?
 
Tito said:
Speaking of weather. Can anyone confirm the wind tonight? is it going to be bad. i think i saw 10-15 mph?
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[h=3]8 pm[/h]
4.png
62°
​
T-Storms

<dl style="margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 6px; padding-bottom: 10px; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; display: inline-block; zoom: 1; vertical-align: top; width: 65px;"><dt style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 11px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: top;">FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">62°</dd></dl> <dl style="margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 6px; padding-bottom: 10px; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; display: inline-block; zoom: 1; vertical-align: top; width: 65px;"><dt style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 11px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: top;">HUMIDITY:</dt><dd style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">99%</dd></dl> <dl style="margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 6px; padding-bottom: 10px; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; display: inline-block; zoom: 1; vertical-align: top; width: 65px;"><dt style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 11px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: top;">PRECIP:</dt><dd style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">80%</dd></dl> <dl style="margin-top: 20px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 6px; padding-bottom: 10px; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; display: inline-block; zoom: 1; vertical-align: top; width: 65px;"><dt style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 11px; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: top;">WIND:</dt><dd style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">ESE at 6 mph</dd></dl>
 
Tito said:
Speaking of weather. Can anyone confirm the wind tonight? is it going to be bad. i think i saw 10-15 mph?
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minimal wind....outside the stadium.....

I know in foxborough the wind inside the stadium can be a 180 from outside.....

Still like the game and gb tt over.. depending on #'s
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
I'm guessing the early Giants money was sharp. Atlanta really stinks.
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they never been anything special on the road and their oline is beat to shit.. hoping total keeps getting drove up here and i can get under 51 or better.. gmen dline outta be all up in ryan's grill. atl defense is shit but the best way to attack them is to pound the rock which we know caughlin loves to do.. think gmen control this thing on the ground with jennings getting a obscene number of carries.. i made it like 47-49 so 51 or better under for me..
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
My guess is sharps get involved if/when this goes to 7. But I'm with DWow...until we see some improvements in Jax, I can't bet this team. The D has given up 30+ points in every game so far, and Gus Bradley is supposed to be a defensive coach.
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kinda wish i woulda bet the over before it got up to 47.. steelers offense should name their number here and think jags will do enough vs pit incredibly avg d..
 
Rumor is this dude is on the Packers. Here's his new promo vid if you need a laugh...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/FNDtxcOtUR0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
 
Lexington 125 said:
Chargers run game is struggling. They had a 3-0 turnover margin last week and were only leading by 3 at the half to Jax. Jets front line could make it tough on the Rivers, he hasn't really been touched all season. Leaning towards taking the inferior team with the points.

Giants look like they are back on track, having won the last two in blowout fashion. They also have turnover margin of 9 to 2 in the last 2. Falcons defense is terrible but I think this is a game they can hang around and win. Obviously I have to look at the over, surprised it wasn't lined at 51. This is the best offense the Giants will have faced, I just keep remembering how silly the Lions made them look week 1.
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pretty sure it will hit 51 at some point,, i think it stays under tho.. falcons have serious oline issues so think it gonna be tough to get chunk plays as ryan gonna need to get rid of it quick if he wants to stay upright. on the other side gmen can and i think will punish atl's soft d with jennings. seems like a gm where there a lot of long clock eating drives..might not be a lot of punts but i think the length of drives will be enough for it to sneak under..

chargers run gm def struggling but it hard for me to take jets vs top tier passing attacks cause their secondary is god awful. rivers stands in tough against pressure so hard not to see him torching that secondary for some big plays..
 
TheCashMan said:
minimal wind....outside the stadium.....

I know in foxborough the wind inside the stadium can be a 180 from outside.....

Still like the game and gb tt over.. depending on #'s
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ty cash..i have the gb tt at 27.5…a little wind is fine
 
I hate that Ponder is starting. The total is an overreaction to the weather which will not be much of a factor. I want to hit the over but can't trust the Ponder-led vikes to hold up their end of the bargain.
 
Having a hard time seeing how my Falcons stay within the number this week.

Add this to the list of problems for the Dirty Birds.....

Last time they played. Dec. 16 2012:

Final

i

[h=3]Giants 0[/h](8-6, 3-4 away)


i

[h=3]Falcons 34[/h]
 
Hulu said:
I hate that Ponder is starting. The total is an overreaction to the weather which will not be much of a factor. I want to hit the over but can't trust the Ponder-led vikes to hold up their end of the bargain.
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Little did you know that Ponder would help your cause. Made sure GB had the ball the whole game and gifted them 14
 
TheCashMan said:
minimal wind....outside the stadium.....

I know in foxborough the wind inside the stadium can be a 180 from outside.....

Still like the game and gb tt over.. depending on #'s
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lets see if i give it back in cfb tomorrow or wait until sunday :)
already have the pats
 
emkee said:
Rumor is this dude is on the Packers. Here's his new promo vid if you need a laugh...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/FNDtxcOtUR0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
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jesus these touts have NO fucking problem just outright lying. no wonder people hate on this douchebag.
 
My Pats are going to get crushed this weekend...all of the bengals strengths are pats weakness
 
weekly Bills thoughts... 3-1 ats on sides for the year as I thought they would handle the Texans.


EJ out Orton in- It's the move everyone in Buffalo has been calling for since week 3. Pretty obvious that EJ is not making the reads and definitely not taking the shots downfield that are necessary to stretch the field. What may or may not be evident is the torturous playcalling that has come alongside the 2 game skid. From the beginning of the season the Bills have said they are committed to the run but look at the numbers from the last 2 weeks....

@Houston- 44 passing attempts vs 23 rushes (spiller 15/Fred 7)

vs SD - 39 passing attempts vs 22 rushing (Spiller 10/Fred 6)

The opening quarter drive charts vs Houston shows exactly what I'm saying- positive rush on 1std, then passing attempts 2nd down (two resulting in sacks, 1 incomplete). Now mind you, in both games they averaged 4 ypc, so it's not like they were inefficient, yet they still decided to throw way too much. Fred having 13 carries in 2 games is simply a mistake- as anyone who watches the Bills can attest to, he is the better rb between the tackles by a long shot.

Another offensive problem (could be the biggest one) has been our guard play- Cyril Richardson was a swinging door for most of the game last week with Chris Williams out, and has shown no sort of promise as of yet. More puzzling to me is that Urbik is on the bench and can play that position (Marrone has stated he is solely the backup C). On the other side Pears has been nothing short of terrible as it appears his conversion from tackle to guard is not panning out. I'm not just saying this as a disgusted fan, he was ranked as the worst guard in football by pro football focus. I understand the force that is JJ Watt and his abilities, but last week both guards were an absolute joke. Everyone is so quick to point out EJ's poor reads/throws, but if you watched he had someone in his face nearly every passing attempt and had 16 qb hits. Through the last 2 games he was pressured on over 40% of his drop backs. So now we have a less mobile qb getting the nod with the same group of guards going against Suh and Fairley...and this is supposed to end well?

I'm not knocking the decision to bench EJ, but I do think he is only a part of the offensive problem... I would expect the Lions get pressure as nothing has changed on the oline to make me think otherwise (Williams is back but he's not a star). I do think a dedication to the run game would be beneficial. I do agree that at least Orton won't be as hesitant trying to make the big throws downfield, I just hope they don't have another 40 attempt game because that is not who the Bills are.



Defensively, I think it's a huge blow that Kyle Williams is out, he has been the most consistent D-lineman this season. Bradham out thins the LBs, but Preston Brown will get a ton of playing time. I would be much more concerned if Joique Bell wasn't out, but I do worry about who will cover Bush out of the backfield. Our run D has been nothing short of great, even though they have been left on the field too long due to inefficient offense. All in all I think the defense is playing well, and haven't allowed over 20 ppg all season. However, this is a true test with an elite wr to worry about. I would think they Lions get the ball moving this game, Waddle back should help out their o-line.


All in all, I don't trust the Bills line enough to back them @ Detroit. I am hoping Orton can make the throws and open this offense up, but I have my doubts. I am leaning on the Bills getting the first over of the season here as it's dropped to a manageable 43. I think it's Detroit-6.5 or nothing here as far as the side goes.
 
wow gorge…you think Pats go to 3? I guess I could see it, would be crazy…if it stays around a pick I may add the Bengals.

And 49ers get to -4, I may add them too…I have them in a tease already, I think they win big today, possibly.

I do not get the Bears and Panthers line and is keeping me away from the Bears….Panthers are well documented as struggling w Cam hurt, backfield, D issues. Everyone knows this, yet the line is staying at 2.5 w 90% or so on Bears. Weird.

I think I may add the Eagles Over. I like it. They get another OLineman back, which not only fortifies the o-line a bit more, gives them more confidence and guys get to play their natural position. Eagles D is not special at all, and Rams showed against the Boys they can at least put some #'s up against avg Defenses...
 
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