Week 5 Discussion Thread

He Hate Me said:
It looks like Alabama had only 4 true road games last year and they lost to A&M and beat Auburn in OT. They were losing both of those games at the half. So maybe they went 2-2 in 1st half road games last year. Miami and GA were neutral sites.
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Yeah forgot about Miami but I thought they went to Miss St early but too lazy to look it up. Was thinking they covered 1Q and 1H against the first three away from home then lost both at A&M. Was just thinking about first half of season so didn’t have UGA or Auburn in my head.
 
Teapot9 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1574425562935853059
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what do you see the jayhawks season record being ? ok so - i think stats say jayhawks have like the best rushing offense in nation and i think i agree... this offense may be historically good.......why can't they win the big 12 ? their d may not be great but i am not sure oklahoma or oklahoma state's defense for example is all that much better then kansas d.....lots of teams have holes in this conference.. I'm on the train
 
liberty -2 @ old dominion - ok liberty should win this game no? weird team here that beats up on uab last 2 years and competes with top power 5's and then struggles to beat bad teams. I think they are better then old dominion but i also thought they were better then southern miss

utep vs charlotte - feel like this line should be 7 and it's 3 - charlotte is fade city, and utep has shown some signs

ecu - usf - i think i disagree usf in this one - take away the navy and florida games and east carolina looks far superior of the 2 programs. east carolina has beat up on usf past 2 years

indiana - nebraska - why on earth is nebraska favored here ? nebraska is basically mac level from looking at who they've played - northwestern (mac), and georgia southern ...........indiana dogged by 4 here ? indiana at least plays some semblance of d, nebraska doesn't even have a shadow of a d.

washington - ucla - ok game feels easy to take huskies......so ask has washington been challenged in the run game on defense ? i don't think they have, but then let's remember this coaching staff won at ucla last year with fresno and stopped this offense.........i like the huskies.....what is the case for ucla here on this game ucla backers ?

duke - virginia - interesting game to me , feel like duke the better team here but also virginia is growing and higher upside kind of tricky
 
KJ said:
Think NCSt tt under would be the best play then. No chance I would feel comfy needing a TD up to win a game between these two. Both offenses are awful.
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i'm scared to play any unders in this game. stout defenses, sloppy/wet field...potential for points off turnovers, and other silliness/shenanigans.

clemson doesn't lose in death valley. who knows what the bad weather will do to this game, but i can't help but lean to clemson at 6 or less the more i think about it. anyhow, it's not a play...just thinking out loud.

a good QB could exploit either secondary though. other than the 2 or 3 INTs (don't remember the number), the TT QB was able to move the ball some. wish Clemson would make the change to the freshman. and we just saw what WF did on the other side. but like i said before, haven't seen that capability in Leary.
 
EL CAPO said:
liberty -2 @ old dominion - ok liberty should win this game no? weird team here that beats up on uab last 2 years and competes with top power 5's and then struggles to beat bad teams. I think they are better then old dominion but i also thought they were better then southern miss

utep vs charlotte - feel like this line should be 7 and it's 3 - charlotte is fade city, and utep has shown some signs

ecu - usf - i think i disagree usf in this one - take away the navy and florida games and east carolina looks far superior of the 2 programs. east carolina has beat up on usf past 2 years

indiana - nebraska - why on earth is nebraska favored here ? nebraska is basically mac level from looking at who they've played - northwestern (mac), and georgia southern ...........indiana dogged by 4 here ? indiana at least plays some semblance of d, nebraska doesn't even have a shadow of a d.

washington - ucla - ok game feels easy to take huskies......so ask has washington been challenged in the run game on defense ? i don't think they have, but then let's remember this coaching staff won at ucla last year with fresno and stopped this offense.........i like the huskies.....what is the case for ucla here on this game ucla backers ?

duke - virginia - interesting game to me , feel like duke the better team here but also virginia is growing and higher upside kind of tricky
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This isn't really the same Liberty team. They have a really good defense/below average offense. ODU has a really pretty good defense and a poor offense. Liberty is already down the starting QB and the backup (started as 3rd string) missed last week. Salter sounds like he might be back (the other QBs are pretty bad). But Salter has a groin injury and is a better runner than a thrower so if he has trouble running, they could struggle to move the ball

ODU should get its starting RB back this week. THey have really struggled to run this year after being ok at it last year. ODUs defense can give up some yards but they create a lot of TFLS (7 sacks and 13 TFLS last week) and turnovers. One concern is they struggled with the running QB from Ark State last week (they mentioned they were caught off guard by him playing).

Libertys defensive line is gonna cause havoc on ODUs OL, but when ODU has time, will they be able to slow down Kuntz and Jennings? How effective will Salter be if hes slowed by a groin injury? If he's out, ODU should win. If he cant run, they have a good shot.

Rain will be a major factor in the game as well. It looks like its gonna pour.
 
If it wasn't mentioned elsewhere, Hank Bachmeier is quitting, I mean transferring.

Taylen Green played extensively at Oregon State. His running ability will be a boost to this offense especially against San Diego State D.

Two underachieving teams right now. San Diego State might have a little pep in their step after the comeback win vs Toledo. Boise I would think, most players realize they have a better chance now on O with Bachmeier gone.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah forgot about Miami but I thought they went to Miss St early but too lazy to look it up. Was thinking they covered 1Q and 1H against the first three away from home then lost both at A&M. Was just thinking about first half of season so didn’t have UGA or Auburn in my head.
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I don't remember the numbers, but I'd have to guess that the Alabama 1Q/1H worked pretty well until the aTm game. Even the Florida game that ended up close was 21-0 late 1Q. And I think it got lucky in the Ole Miss game with a fumble return TD right after a score in the 2nd quarter. Later in the season, LSU exposed some deficiencies on the OL by blitzing non-stop. Then in the games where we lost Jameson Williams (AU and UGA 2.0), defenses correctly assumed they could ignore the deep threat for the most part.

Our inability to play well on the road lately will keep me off of any bets this weekend, though we do match up very well with Ark. For reference, here is something someone posted on one of our boards:

Last 5 road games:

-14 at Florida. Won by 2.

-18.5 at tamu. Lost by 3.

-17.5 at miss state. Won by 40.

-20.5 at auburn. Won in 4OT.

-21.5 at Texas. Won by 1.
 
EL CAPO said:
what do you see the jayhawks season record being ? ok so - i think stats say jayhawks have like the best rushing offense in nation and i think i agree... this offense may be historically good.......why can't they win the big 12 ? their d may not be great but i am not sure oklahoma or oklahoma state's defense for example is all that much better then kansas d.....lots of teams have holes in this conference.. I'm on the train
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Welcome aboard partner!

I think 10-2 is realistic, I don’t see KU going 3-0 during the Baylor, OSU, OU stretch and wouldn’t be shocked if Kansas gets clipped in a really tight game at some point.

We get Oklahoma after their game with Texas, think that’s a great spot for KU.

Kansas travels to Waco but then has a week off and hosts OSU.

I’ve got a good feeling about this.


However, right now, all I care about is beating Iowa State.
 
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Teapot9 said:
Welcome aboard partner!

I think 10-2 is realistic, I don’t see KU going 3-0 during the Baylor, OSU, OU stretch and wouldn’t be shocked if Kansas gets clipped in a really tight game at some point.

We get Oklahoma after their game with Texas, think that’s a great spot for KU.

Kansas travels to Waco but then has a week off and hosts OSU.

I’ve got a good feeling about this.


However, right now, all I care about is beating Iowa State.
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how do you see the iowa state - kansas game going ?
 
I'd say the line is a point or two short in Lawrence but Dekker has looked average against Iowa defense and below average against the Baylor defense. Probably will come down to that matchup.
 
Some of Purdum's nuggets:

- Kentucky is 15-5-2 ATS against AP-ranked teams since the start of the 2015 season.
- Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against TCU.
- Kansas State is 12-5-1 ATS as a favorite under Chris Klieman, the best cover percentage as a favorite in the Big 12 since the start of the 2019 season.
- Rutgers is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2020 season, the best such cover percentage in the Big Ten over that span (min. 5 games as a road underdog).
- Oklahoma State is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season, the best such cover percentage in the FBS over that span (min. 2 games as an underdog).
- This is the first time under Mike Norvell that Florida State has been a favorite against a AP-ranked opponent and Wake Forest is 16-6 ATS against AP-ranked teams under Dave Clawson.
- The 26-point spread is the largest favorite USC has been in a Pac-12 game since 2017.
- Stanford is 3-15 ATS following a straight-up loss since the start of the 2019 season.


www.espn.com

College football Week 5 betting trends: Is Clemson on upset alert?

All of the betting nuggets, trends, stats and information ahead of Week 5 of the college football season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
He Hate Me said:
I missed Washington under 3 at open, so I will wait and hope.
Bet LSU -7 at open
Waiting on Arkansas to continue to rise. I may only bet Ark 1st half.
Bet Kent St -6.5 at open
Waiting on Maryland and their QB, but line is already way higher

Tulane opened at 3 for me, so unless something crazy happens with the line, no play.
Just played UTSA as they have dropped to -4
Played NCSU at open +7

Louisville opened for me way higher than the Circa open so no play.
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I waited for Washington and got it at -2.5 -115
 
Dollaz said:
This isn't really the same Liberty team. They have a really good defense/below average offense. ODU has a really pretty good defense and a poor offense. Liberty is already down the starting QB and the backup (started as 3rd string) missed last week. Salter sounds like he might be back (the other QBs are pretty bad). But Salter has a groin injury and is a better runner than a thrower so if he has trouble running, they could struggle to move the ball

ODU should get its starting RB back this week. THey have really struggled to run this year after being ok at it last year. ODUs defense can give up some yards but they create a lot of TFLS (7 sacks and 13 TFLS last week) and turnovers. One concern is they struggled with the running QB from Ark State last week (they mentioned they were caught off guard by him playing).

Libertys defensive line is gonna cause havoc on ODUs OL, but when ODU has time, will they be able to slow down Kuntz and Jennings? How effective will Salter be if hes slowed by a groin injury? If he's out, ODU should win. If he cant run, they have a good shot.

Rain will be a major factor in the game as well. It looks like its gonna pour.
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Update- the weather has changed. Looks clear with a light breeze and Libertys QB should play. I don't think the total has adjusted to the weather yet
 
He Hate Me said:
I waited for Washington and got it at -2.5 -115
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I like udub also, debating splitting w 1st half cause they been so awesome in the 1st while bruins been way better after halftime. Huskies have scored on 17 of their 20 1st half possessions (14 tds). I think that leads to a good prop play also, DTR ov 207.5 pass yards is light imo, I think udub gets out and he gonna have to throw and think he can here. I see no reason he isn’t way closer to 250 thru the air.
 
He Hate Me said:
I missed Washington under 3 at open, so I will wait and hope.
Bet LSU -7 at open
Waiting on Arkansas to continue to rise. I may only bet Ark 1st half.
Bet Kent St -6.5 at open
Waiting on Maryland and their QB, but line is already way higher

Tulane opened at 3 for me, so unless something crazy happens with the line, no play.
Just played UTSA as they have dropped to -4
Played NCSU at open +7

Louisville opened for me way higher than the Circa open so no play.
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seeing -2.5
 
2daBank said:
I like udub also, debating splitting w 1st half cause they been so awesome in the 1st while bruins been way better after halftime. Huskies have scored on 17 of their 20 1st half possessions (14 tds). I think that leads to a good prop play also, DTR ov 207.5 pass yards is light imo, I think udub gets out and he gonna have to throw and think he can here. I see no reason he isn’t way closer to 250 thru the air.
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I see 220.5 and 226.5 for DTR, so 207.5 is light.

I see 316.5 & 327.5 for Penix.
 
He Hate Me said:
I see 220.5 and 226.5 for DTR, so 207.5 is light.

I see 316.5 & 327.5 for Penix.
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Yea I see it has went way up:, I still like but obviously not quite as much. I been trying to grab these props night/day before cause they seem to move on game day. Penix kinda a coin flip, i think I prefer his ov 2,5 td passes +110 but I didn’t play anything but DTR as of yet. Wish I woulda got more of him at 207.5. So today I added some udub 1st half/dtr alternate ov 195 2 teamer +160. Think they correlate nicely, if udub grabs early lead he forced to throw in 2nd half.
 
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I seriously thought DTR shoulda been in the 240s so even 18 yards higher still think he a decent play.
 
There a bunch of RB’s ov .5 tds with pretty heavy juice but will prob hit 1.5 2marro. Def throwing bunch of them in some RR’s today
 
Update for weather:

Ian just made landfall in SC and is moving at 15 mph. Means roughly 3pm Eastern on Saturday the center will likely be 350-375 miles from where it's at now. I haven't looked at a map and the projected path seems like it still might be a crap shoot. Completely possible it can speed up or slow down, but this should give a decent barometer for the Carolinas and Virginia.
 
Everything should be out of the Carolinas and into Virginia by tomorrow afternoon based on all the local and chapel hill forecasts. That explains the Heels total now at 56 (I got 49.5)
 
I am in Wilmington, NC so east and south of the games being played in NC and in Clemson. Our winds are peaking now around 40 mph with the rain to stop in about an hour and the wind to die down to under 15 mph around midnight tonight.
 
carolinablue said:
Everything should be out of the Carolinas and into Virginia by tomorrow afternoon based on all the local and chapel hill forecasts. That explains the Heels total now at 56 (I got 49.5)
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Yeah just giving specific times. Every hour matters. Landfall is the middle of the eye, it's the outer bands on the back that are stronger. No clue the distance between all the NC campuses from where it hit land but barring anything nuts what's left of the middle of the storm should be about 350 miles this time tomorrow from where it is now. The time after the center moves through will likely be the worst of it.
 
He Hate Me said:
I am in Wilmington, NC so east and south of the games being played in NC and in Clemson. Our winds are peaking now around 40 mph with the rain to stop in about an hour and the wind to die down to under 15 mph around midnight tonight.
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Really is all about the wind, couldn't care less about the rain that will be left in this thing.
 
He Hate Me said:
I am in Wilmington, NC so east and south of the games being played in NC and in Clemson. Our winds are peaking now around 40 mph with the rain to stop in about an hour and the wind to die down to under 15 mph around midnight tonight.
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Sweet. I took the ncst/clemson over the other day thinking this be the case.
 
KJ said:
Really is all about the wind, couldn't care less about the rain that will be left in this thing.
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The rain will be to the west of the eye and the wind is stronger on the east side of the eye. The eye will break up soon over land.
 
rochclone said:
I still lean Tulane. I see you were on them earlier. You still riding with the Green Wave defense and Coach Fritz?
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Yeah much more a great situational play than an x and o play for me, if the backup sinks the wager so be it. Not buying off of it.
 
He Hate Me said:
I missed Washington under 3 at open, so I will wait and hope.
Bet LSU -7 at open
Waiting on Arkansas to continue to rise. I may only bet Ark 1st half.
Bet Kent St -6.5 at open
Waiting on Maryland and their QB, but line is already way higher

Tulane opened at 3 for me, so unless something crazy happens with the line, no play.
Just played UTSA as they have dropped to -4
Played NCSU at open +7

Louisville opened for me way higher than the Circa open so no play.
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Louisville, which opened at -11 at some books and was quickly bet up to -16 is now back to -13. I may play it if I can get under 13.
 
Toledo is typically phony, here is a phony stat on them. MAC's #1 Total D....but their Run D is 11th out of 12! Sure they played Ohio State ,but the impotent offenses of San Diego State and U Mass also ran the ball for over 200y on them.

Central Michigan leads the MAC in Total O and is #3 in Total D.
 
Any takers on Wagner +53? They are a bad team and Syracuse can name their score. Trick would be to weather the 1H, if Wagner can get past that not down by 40+, they might be able to cover here. I would expect Cuse to be playing a lot of their depth players early
 
s--k said:
Toledo is typically phony, here is a phony stat on them. MAC's #1 Total D....but their Run D is 11th out of 12! Sure they played Ohio State ,but the impotent offenses of San Diego State and U Mass also ran the ball for over 200y on them.

Central Michigan leads the MAC in Total O and is #3 in Total D.
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Like the over if Richardson plays for chips
 
Dollaz said:
Update- the weather has changed. Looks clear with a light breeze and Libertys QB should play. I don't think the total has adjusted to the weather yet
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This jumped back to 48. I have 3 units on the over at 42 so I have a decent middle chance
 
He Hate Me said:
I will probably bet 1/2 of my Kent St bet on Ohio at 11.5 and try to middle it since it moved so much. It opened at -6 but moved to -6.5 before I could bet it.
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Gonna take some middles by betting 1/2 of my original bets against my original bet:

Kent St -6.5 & Ohio +12
VT/UNC over 50.5 & VT/UNC under 57.5

Also played Arkansas +10.5 1st half, may bet game if I can get 17.5
 
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