Week 5 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 29 Thu 2022

07:00 PM
103Utah State+24
-115		O 60½
-110
104BYU+1 Markets-24
-105		U 60½
-110
Sep 30 Fri 2022

06:00 PM
105Tulane+2½
-110		O 55½
-110
106Houston+1 Markets-2½
-110		U 55½
-110
06:30 PM
107UTSA-5½
-115		O 63
-110
108Middle Tennessee State+1 Markets+5½
-105		U 63
-110
07:00 PM
109San Diego State+5½
+100		O 41
-110
110Boise State+1 Markets-5½
-120		U 41
-110
09:30 PM
111Washington-2½
-125		O 65½
-110
112UCLA+1 Markets+2½
+105		U 65½
-110
10:00 PM
113New Mexico+16
-107		O 45
-110
114UNLV+1 Markets-16
-113		U 45
-110
Oct 1 Sat 2022

11:00 AM
115Illinois+9
-110		O 44
-110
116Wisconsin+1 Markets-9
-110		U 44
-110
11:00 AM
119Louisville-15½
-115		O 51
-110
120Boston College+1 Markets+15½
-105		U 51
-110
11:00 AM
123Wake Forest+6
-110		O 66
-110
124Florida State-6
-110		U 66
-110
11:00 AM
125Georgia State+9
-110		O 58
-110
126Army+1 Markets-9
-110		U 58
-110
11:00 AM
127NC State+7
-110		O 46
-110
128Clemson-7
-110		U 46
-110
11:00 AM
129Georgia Tech+20
-102		O 50½
-110
130Pittsburgh-20
-118		U 50½
-110
11:00 AM
135Virginia Tech+8½
-110		O 57
-110
136North Carolina-8½
-110		U 57
-110
11:00 AM
145Purdue+10
-110		O 53
-110
146Minnesota-10
-110		U 53
-110
11:00 AM
149Navy+15½
-105		O 39
-110
150Air Force-15½
-115		U 39
-110
11:00 AM
151Oklahoma State+2½
-110		O 55
-110
152Baylor-2½
-110		U 55
-110
11:00 AM
157Temple+20½
-115		O 53
-110
158Memphis-20½
-105		U 53
-110
11:00 AM
175Kentucky+6
-110		O 55½
-110
176Mississippi-6
-110		U 55½
-110
11:00 AM
177Texas Tech+7
+102		O 57½
-110
178Kansas State-7
-122		U 57½
-110
11:00 AM
185Michigan-10
-110		O 43
-110
186Iowa+10
-110		U 43
-110
12:30 PM
147Texas State+20
-110		O 54
-110
148James Madison-20
-110		U 54
-110
01:00 PM
143Northern Illinois-3½
-105		O 60
-110
144Ball State+3½
-115		U 60
-110
01:00 PM
161Massachusetts+19½
-105		O 57
-110
162Eastern Michigan-19½
-115		U 57
-110
01:00 PM
163Oregon State+11
-115		O 56
-110
164Utah-11
-105		U 56
-110
02:30 PM
117Northwestern+25
-110		O 52
-110
118Penn State+1 Markets-25
-110		U 52
-110
02:30 PM
131Michigan State+7½
-118		O 60
-110
132Maryland+1 Markets-7½
-102		U 60
-110
02:30 PM
141SMU+3½
-107		O 64
-110
142Central Florida-3½
-113		U 64
-110
02:30 PM
153Iowa State-3
-120		O 58½
-110
154Kansas+3
+100		U 58½
-110
02:30 PM
179Rutgers+40½
-110		O 60
-110
180Ohio State-40½
-110		U 60
-110
02:30 PM
183Oklahoma-4½
-120		O 67½
-110
184TCU+4½
+100		U 67½
-110
02:30 PM
187West Virginia+10
-115		O 61
-110
188Texas-10
-105		U 61
-110
02:30 PM
191Alabama-15
-115		O 62½
-110
192Arkansas+15
-105		U 62½
-110
02:30 PM
195Central Michigan+6½
-110		O 57½
-110
196Toledo-6½
-110		U 57½
-110
02:30 PM
197Miami Ohiopk
-115		O 53½
-110
198Buffalopk
-105		U 53½
-110
02:30 PM
199Fresno State-24
-110		O 56½
-110
200Connecticut+24
-110		U 56½
-110
02:30 PM
201Bowling Green-6½
-118		O 53½
-110
202Akron+6½
-102		U 53½
-110
02:30 PM
203Ohio+6½
-104		O 69
-110
204Kent State-6½
-116		U 69
-110
03:00 PM
121Georgia Southern+10
-116		O 68½
-110
122Coastal Carolina+1 Markets-10
-104		U 68½
-110
03:00 PM
181Texas A&M+2½
+100		O 45
-110
182Mississippi State-2½
-120		U 45
-110
03:00 PM
207Florida Atlantic-3
+100		O 67
-110
208North Texas+3
-120		U 67
-110
04:00 PM
155South Alabama-5½
-110		O 50
-110
156UL Lafayette+5½
-110		U 50
-110
04:30 PM
167California+4½
-110		O 52½
-110
168Washington State-4½
-110		U 52½
-110
05:00 PM
137Liberty-2
-110		O 47
-110
138Old Dominion+1 Markets+2
-110		U 47
-110
05:00 PM
209UTEP-3½
+100		O 58
-110
210Charlotte+3½
-120		U 58
-110
06:00 PM
139East Carolina-8½
-115		O 59½
-110
140South Florida+1 Markets+8½
-105		U 59½
-110
06:00 PM
159Cincinnati-12
-110		O 61
-110
160Tulsa+12
-110		U 61
-110
06:00 PM
189LSU-7½
-115		O 45½
-107
190Auburn+7½
-105		U 45½
-113
06:00 PM
205UL Monroe+7½
-110		O 59½
-110
206Arkansas State-7½
-110		U 59½
-110
06:00 PM
213Troy+5½
-108		O 57½
-110
214Western Kentucky-5½
-112		U 57½
-110
06:30 PM
133Virginia+1½
-105		O 57
-110
134Duke+1 Markets-1½
-115		U 57
-110
06:30 PM
193Georgia-28
-112		O 56
-110
194Missouri+28
-108		U 56
-110
06:30 PM
211Indiana+3½
-111		O 61½
-110
212Nebraska-3½
-109		U 61½
-110
06:30 PM
215UAB-10
-115		O 53
-110
216Rice+10
-105		U 53
-110
06:30 PM
217San Jose State+1½
-115		O 44
-110
218Wyoming-1½
-105		U 44
-110
07:00 PM
165Florida International+14½
-105		O 56½
-110
166New Mexico State-14½
-115		U 56½
-110
08:30 PM
169Colorado+18
-118		O 55½
-110
170Arizona-18
-102		U 55½
-110
09:30 PM
171Arizona State+23½
-110		O 61
-110
172USC-23½
-110		U 61
-110
10:00 PM
173Stanford+15½
-105		O 62½
-110
174Oregon-15½
-115		U 62½
-110
 
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Probably don't want to be Mizzou this week. Losing like they did. Now you get a pissed off Georgia team after giving up 22 to Kent St. Kirby is gonna kick their ass in practice this week.

Mtsu at home vs UTSA off that win vs Miami. These go5 teams have generally stb the following week off historic wins.

I'll keep riding UNLV. Lobos off an impressive 2 first down, 77 total yard effort in the Bayou. Worst offense in the country.

JFC Hawaii, Nevada, CSU, Utah St, and UNM in one league. Just merge with the Big Sky.

TX Tech at KSU both off huge wins. Wanted to fade both but sadly they play each other.
 
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Interested in:

Washington
LSU
Arkansas
Kent St
Maryland

Was interested in, but do not like based on these opening lines:

Tulane
UTSA
NCSU

Wasn't considering but the open line looks tempting:

Louisville
 
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That UW/UCLA game has some funny history. I'm a Bruin fan, and my gut is to pound UW at -2.5 if that's how it comes out (like the opener). However, my mind is cautioning me against rushing into that.

Wazzou is in the middle of a Oregon/USC sandwich. Good spot for Cal, which would create better value on Wash St the next week.

Stanford looked gawd awful yesterday. Ducks should be a cake walk, but history shows that is rarely the case.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
That UW/UCLA game has some funny history. I'm a Bruin fan, and my gut is to pound UW at -2.5 if that's how it comes out (like the opener). However, my mind is cautioning me against rushing into that.

Wazzou is in the middle of a Oregon/USC sandwich. Good spot for Cal, which would create better value on Wash St the next week.

Stanford looked gawd awful yesterday. Ducks should be a cake walk, but history shows that is rarely the case.
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The pac12 cannibalize's itself every year
 
Got burned with JMU but going to fade them again. Giving 23 seems silly to me. I knew they were in a good spot last week, but they will still be a fade for me.

UTSA
Army 058.5
ODU+1.5
UTEP -2.5
 
Does anybody have any kind of handle on North Carolina State? I for one do not. Saw them almost lose to ECU week 1 and haven't seen one second of any other game since. My assumption is that they were some kind over hyped team that hasn't played to anyone's expectations.
 
UNC -8.5

Of course they should be favored, and this is the weakest O they have played...but after seeing that defense against a previously struggling Notre Dame O - I mean if I didn't know better I would've thought UNC was playing with like 8 or 9 guys on D instead of 11!

It's not like VT was a good offensive team last year, they weren't, they were awful and won 17-10 as a 5.5 home dog. No shock at all if VT wins this.
 
s--k said:
UNC -8.5

Of course they should be favored, and this is the weakest O they have played...but after seeing that defense against a previously struggling Notre Dame O - I mean if I didn't know better I would've thought UNC was playing with like 8 or 9 guys on D instead of 11!

It's not like VT was a good offensive team last year, they weren't, they were awful and won 17-10 as a 5.5 home dog. No shock at all if VT wins this.
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The way our defense plays, I wouldn't be shocked at any losses the rest of the way...unfortunately.
 
I'm looking at these for the first time.

That JMU line is huge! I guess we'll find out if they know how to handle a big road win and coming back home as a huge favorite.
 
Oregon State at Utah has makings of a very good game. I worry about a post-USC hangover for Beavers though. Think Utah's outstanding TE Kuithe is out maybe the year? Leading receiver in 2019 and 2021, #2 receiver in 2020. It's not like Utah has an abundance good receiving targets. Big loss.
 
Texas -10 vs West Virginia...why?

Texas lost the Texas Tech game the exact same way they lost games last year. West Virginia can win this for sure.
 
Toledo continue to be one of the most overrated teams annually in the country and always the MAC's most overrated. Appears like Central woke up a little bit last week. Although I'm pretty sure I saw QB Richardson get knocked out late 4th Q in that one. Will have to see if he is injured or what.
 
Last year Akron walked into Doyt Perry as a 14 pt dog and upset BGSU....hm...have to think that Liberty was more hungover from near miss vs Wake the previous week than Akron really improved to the point that they'd be competitive with them. I'd think Bowling Green wins, but this could be a weird game. Should've saved this for a Tuesday night in November!
 
He Hate Me said:
Interested in:

Washington
LSU
Arkansas
Kent St
Maryland

Was interested in, but do not like based on these opening lines:

Tulane
UTSA
NCSU

Wasn't considering but the open line looks tempting:

Louisville
Click to expand...
I missed Washington under 3 at open, so I will wait and hope.
Bet LSU -7 at open
Waiting on Arkansas to continue to rise. I may only bet Ark 1st half.
Bet Kent St -6.5 at open
Waiting on Maryland and their QB, but line is already way higher

Tulane opened at 3 for me, so unless something crazy happens with the line, no play.
Just played UTSA as they have dropped to -4
Played NCSU at open +7

Louisville opened for me way higher than the Circa open so no play.
 
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ECU-8.5 at USF...I don't put ECU past finding a way(s) to lose any game. USF goes to almost beating Florida to having their doors blown off for the second time this year. ECU could be 4-0, but they're 2-2 instead. I don't know, this feels like a weird one that USF wins.
 
Tulsa +12 home vs Cincy. Tulsa is a team that is just almost always in close games. Only lost to Cincy 20-28 last year and 24-27 in 2021. Suppose there is some question about Tulsa QB injured?
 
survive&advance said:
Talk to me about ULL. I’m all about south Alabama this season
Click to expand...

Cliff notes being they are pretty much a mess. Didn't look good vs a SE La team that really struggled to start the season. Was really bad for 2+ quarters vs EMich then turned in superman performance in the final 1.5 quarters. The last two games they have looked really poor. Rice outgained them 449-175 (turnovers kept it closer than it should've been). ULM just outgained them 419-354. ULL did help Monroe with several bad snaps. Lots of streaks are snapping right now for ULL.
 
s--k said:
Tulsa +12 home vs Cincy. Tulsa is a team that is just almost always in close games. Only lost to Cincy 20-28 last year and 24-27 in 2021. Suppose there is some question about Tulsa QB injured?
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Brin left with an ankle injury. They could’ve won had he not gotten hurt. Backup was OK. But I do love this Tulsa offense, will def play them if Brin is in
 
s--k said:
Oregon State at Utah has makings of a very good game. I worry about a post-USC hangover for Beavers though. Think Utah's outstanding TE Kuithe is out maybe the year? Leading receiver in 2019 and 2021, #2 receiver in 2020. It's not like Utah has an abundance good receiving targets. Big loss.
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Confirmed today, done for the year. Dalton Kincaid has been having a very productive season though and Thomas Yassmin had a big reception after Kuithe went out.

Yes, a big loss but not one that I don't think Utah can overtime. The DL/LB's looked so bad in that Florida game. They've looked more like a Utah defense with each game.

To me this game comes down to Utah stopping the beaver running game. If they do it should be an easy win. If they let them run, not only could the Beavers cover but they could win. 11 is a pretty big number IMHO.
 
@CircaSports
College Football - Biggest Line Moves

PITT -18 to -23
LOUISVILLE -11 to -15.5
PENN ST -22 to -26
JMU -18 to -22
S ALABAMA -5 to -9
KENT ST -6 to -10
TULSA +13 to +9.5
FLORIDA ST -4 to -7
MARYLAND -4 to -7
OLE MISS -4 to -7
NEB -2 to -5
UTEP PK to -3
SJSU +2 to -1
MTSU +7 to +4
 
San Jose favored at Wyoming now? huh They did play competitive at Auburn for what that is worth. I suppose people are very much impressed how badly they beat Western Michigan who was playing their #2 QB? Western attempted 15 passes between their #2 and #3 QBs and really looked lost all night. San Jose could win at Wyoming, but I don't necessarily see what there is to like about them that much more than Wyoming
 
survive&advance said:
Talk to me about ULL. I’m all about south Alabama this season
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I'm glad someone brought this up. Smart people have the spread at SA -2.5, with last week's rating.
SA beat LT 38-14 as an opened -17 pt fav.
ULL lost as an opened -13 pt fav to ULM.
Move it two pts as ULL lost as a decent fav. Gives SA -4.5 on power rating. Opened -7 up to SA -9.

edit:saw he hate me had circa openers, they had SA -5. I pulled sunday night and have one -6.5 and two -7.
 
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s--k said:
Last year Akron walked into Doyt Perry as a 14 pt dog and upset BGSU....hm...have to think that Liberty was more hungover from near miss vs Wake the previous week than Akron really improved to the point that they'd be competitive with them. I'd think Bowling Green wins, but this could be a weird game. Should've saved this for a Tuesday night in November!
Click to expand...
Maybe over the better play on this?
 
s--k said:
Venebles is going to whip that D into shape this week.
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Not sure he can do it. That game against K State was not the normal K State/OU game we have seen over the years. OU never gets up for K State, but this year they made this game a target during the entire off-season. Everyone knows the Venables connection to K State and how badly he wanted to win so OU scheduled this week as the unveiling of the statue of the Selmon brothers and had Switzer and Bob Stoops address the team, had the remaining Selmon brothers give a pep talk. Pulled out all the stops

And yet K State outsmarted them, out coached them, and physically beat them down. OU defense was no mas by the end. Strange to see because OU would not even have allowed any of the K-State players to walk on at OU. In fact when Deuce Vaughn's high school coach tried to get OU to take a look at Vaughn they told him, "he's too little and too slow. We have walk ons better than he is."

There has been endless talk--and I mean endless, no OU coach has ever talked as much as Venables--about how now that Riley is gone and they brought back Schmidt as strength coach they will be tough and powerful and BV and his staff will show the conference what real D is. Instead, they were run over and run through all night and were worn down by the fourth quarter.

I believed all the talk about the new attitude on D (although I never believed a word about Schmidt as a strength coach) and how the staff was hyping this game and paid for it. Good way to learn a lesson
 
TahoeLegend said:
Not sure he can do it.
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Comes down to how do they respond? Coaches and players. How did Kansas State respond to losing at home to Tulane?

I didn't see any of this game nor have I looked at any recaps or box scores yet. I have heard some Big Xll talk radio discussion this morning on the game and they played some post game press conference audio. This year I have been placing bets on and against FCS teams I've never seen and in some cases never heard of, so I am getting a little more comfortable taking risks without familiarity, and in some ways it gives a clean look as I'm not influenced by what I saw. I guess you could say I'm ignorant of what happened and actually disregarding it, knowing less can't be better than knowing more? I like the situation here for OU. Now, you could be right, maybe he can't do it - maybe the pieces aren't there or they can't do what he wants them to do. In that case, they could struggle again at TCU. I'd be willing to take a chance on a low favorite spot that they can rebound. I saw the line in this thread was 4.5. Now it is 6.5, was even 7 briefly, I bet very few favorites so the higher it gets the less likely I am to lay points, but I would rather have OU to win and cover a relatively short number.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
That UW/UCLA game has some funny history. I'm a Bruin fan, and my gut is to pound UW at -2.5 if that's how it comes out (like the opener). However, my mind is cautioning me against rushing into that.

Wazzou is in the middle of a Oregon/USC sandwich. Good spot for Cal, which would create better value on Wash St the next week.

Stanford looked gawd awful yesterday. Ducks should be a cake walk, but history shows that is rarely the case.
Click to expand...

Yes Stanford is proving again they are not to be trusted. They do just enough to tempt people like me and then they come out and do a bunch of stuff wrong and get their ass kicked on the score board.

I don't think Washington State going to play USC is that big of a deal for them. Rather I feel it would be more important for them to focus on leaving their 3 game home stand with a win and getting that awful loss behind them. It's a big game for Washington State actually because they had built up some belief and trust and excitement for the fans and within the program and if they lose back-to-back games that is all gone. California actually could be in somewhat of a let down spot off the big trip to South Bend and close loss and the revenge covid game vs Arizona - that was definitely the best that Cal has played on offense all year...and Arizona D isn't exactly good, so that helps. 599 yards by Cal O - wow. But they gave up 536. I'd expect Washington State to play pretty well Saturday.
 
It was interesting to watch Texas/Texas Tech unfold. Tech is coached by a guy who was one of the best high school coaches in Texas for years and Tech spent the game trying to win. Went for it on fourth down eight times. I can't recall a team going for it that many times in one game. They converted a fourth down on every scoring drive and were six of eight for the game

Texas played like Sark was trying not to lose and looked like Oklahoma on pivotal fourth downs. On one they jumped off sides--a major part of the Oklahoma game plan--and on another lined up wrong so had to call time out. When they went back out the game clock expired.

Tech plays hard and is obviously well coached. The same backup QB who looked like a turnover waiting to happen against NC State looked like a future first round choice against Texas--38 of 56, 331 yards, two TDs no picks. Tech receivers were open all over the field on every play. Hard to believe it's the same Texas D that played against Alabama.

This wasn't a case of Texas coming out flat. They scored first and had double digit leads three different times, including 31-17 in the third quarter, but they wilted under the constant Tech attacking pressure.

Tech is a good team, well coached, very aggressive, lots of speed. I was on them one week too early against NC State, but that game may be more proof how good NC State is than a black mark against Tech. The Red Raiders are young, new coaches, new system, and are only going to get better.
 
I forgot to add that the Tech coach had no qualms after the game telling the press, "I told the guys if we kept up the pressure they would crack and by the third quarter the guys could see I was right."

They asked him what does it mean to beat Texas and he said, "It doesn't mean anything to beat Texas. We're 1-0 in the conference, that's what means something. I've been telling you all and the country is going to find out Everything in this conference runs through Lubbock! Everything runs through Lubbock!"

You could see the team has picked up his attitude.
 
s--k said:
Yes Stanford is proving again they are not to be trusted. They do just enough to tempt people like me and then they come out and do a bunch of stuff wrong and get their ass kicked on the score board.

I don't think Washington State going to play USC is that big of a deal for them. Rather I feel it would be more important for them to focus on leaving their 3 game home stand with a win and getting that awful loss behind them. It's a big game for Washington State actually because they had built up some belief and trust and excitement for the fans and within the program and if they lose back-to-back games that is all gone. California actually could be in somewhat of a let down spot off the big trip to South Bend and close loss and the revenge covid game vs Arizona - that was definitely the best that Cal has played on offense all year...and Arizona D isn't exactly good, so that helps. 599 yards by Cal O - wow. But they gave up 536. I'd expect Washington State to play pretty well Saturday.
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Right on the money about Stanford except the rest of the lesson is, as soon as you give up on Stanford and bet against them they play their best game of the year and kick ass on some undefeated team
 
s--k said:
Does anybody have any kind of handle on North Carolina State? I for one do not. Saw them almost lose to ECU week 1 and haven't seen one second of any other game since. My assumption is that they were some kind over hyped team that hasn't played to anyone's expectations.
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i've watched them twice. like you, i saw the ECU game...but I also watched 60-70% of the Texas Tech game. They played much better defensively, but I don't like their QB at all.

i'm still not exactly sure what to make of this week's game though. both teams have been looking ahead to this, and clemson almost got caught by wake. tigers have a cupcake next, where the pack have a tough FSU team.

both defense are very solid, despite what we saw last saturday. (i was on wake, but i'm at a loss to explain what i watched.) both offenses have issues/are inconsistent. neither team should be able to run the ball much, so it'll some down to the QBs. i like neither, but TT did a pretty good job limiting Leary. the INTs were really the difference there, and the ncst defense.

i see some line value with clemson, tbh. had it not been for what I just watched, i might be on them already. my heart wants to pull for NCST, but if I can get this game at -6 i might have to take clemson. the ncst offense just hasn't shown me anything yet. saw potential with wake. just don't with ncst, despite my admiration for them on the defensive side of the ball.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
i see some line value with clemson, tbh. had it not been for what I just watched, i might be on them already. my heart wants to pull for NCST, but if I can get this game at -6 i might have to take clemson. the ncst offense just hasn't shown me anything yet. saw potential with wake. just don't with ncst, despite my admiration for them on the defensive side of the ball.
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Think NCSt tt under would be the best play then. No chance I would feel comfy needing a TD up to win a game between these two. Both offenses are awful.
 
What is the reason to play Alabama 1st half, 1st quarter, etc this week? I know this won a lot last year and has won this year when Alabama played at home against horrible teams, but they play a decent team on the road this week.
 
He Hate Me said:
What is the reason to play Alabama 1st half, 1st quarter, etc this week? I know this won a lot last year and has won this year when Alabama played at home against horrible teams, but they play a decent team on the road this week.
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Pretty sure those plays went 6-2 through the first four road games last year against a lineup of Miami, Florida, Miss St and A&M so not a bunch of patsies. I know last year doesn’t equate to this year, but it shows that it wasn’t just a home anomaly.

Someone with a much better memory than me can probably quote the actual numbers I’m sure
 
carolinablue said:
Pretty sure those plays went 6-2 through the first four road games last year against a lineup of Miami, Florida, Miss St and A&M so not a bunch of patsies. I know last year doesn’t equate to this year, but it shows that it wasn’t just a home anomaly.

Someone with a much better memory than me can probably quote the actual numbers I’m sure
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It looks like Alabama had only 4 true road games last year and they lost to A&M and beat Auburn in OT. They were losing both of those games at the half. So maybe they went 2-2 in 1st half road games last year. Miami and GA were neutral sites.
 
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