Week 5 Discussion Thread

CPA-hole said:
I still think the weakness with UGA is their secondary. Their front 7 has helped mask that so far. Can a healthy KJJ exploit that? I think he can. But is he healthy? Sure wasn't as good after he came back in. Also how healthy is Burks?

I think I like the over best but I'm gonna wait until later in the week and see about the health concerns.

But I have to agree. This is an awful spot for Arky.
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It’s just A LOT to ask of a team….gonna be tough sledding and UGA gets to stamp a big one
 
s--k said:
North Dakota, currently ranked 10/11 in FCS polls. They are pretty good. Utah St dominated the 2nd H.

Concern for Utah St mostly continues to be play-in play-out defense I'd say. Their D can make timely plays, but typically gave up yards and drives. Surprising last week that the D was so good and the O so bad. I don't worry about the O again this week and do worry about the D again this week. Think the D can and will make plays that matter, but will give up yards between the 20s.
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My initial lean was over so with ya there. I don’t see much reason not to be against them in 1sy half tho. They have gotten themselves in a big hole every game. Up till last week they been great in 4th qrtrs. BYU been way better in 1st half than 2nd. Seems like a good fit for 1st half play on byu then take utah st in 2nd
 
2daBank said:
I got it late and it had fallen back to 62.5 last week! You the one who turned me on to this team amd the overs, really appreciate it as I have made good money on their overs and ats! Their offense been every bit as advertised, you were spot on! Would have been nice if they beat Hoosiers as I had ml also. The only bad thing I’ve seen from coach and really the only reason I believe they lost was for some crazy reason elected to punt on 4th and 1 at the 50 when it was a 26-24 game, still dunno why the hell he did that? Hoosiers offense scored after the punt which basically eliminated their shot to win which I thought they really could have! Such a fun team to watch!

Michigan st should have a field day on the ground, normally I would worry bout a game w so much running but that been the case with their last 3 opponents and hasn’t mattered one bit!! Wku run defense isn’t about to give up a 18 play drive, before that happens the rb will bust one! Lol. Sparty allowing 300 passing yards per game and they haven’t seen a passing attack anything close to this one! I think it important to get sooner than later as oddly enough 62 a fairly key number on ncaa fb totals landing on it 2.7%! Over all day for me tlll they adjust their totals up to the mid 60s-low 70s which where they belong imo.
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I’ll be against ya on this one. Indiana threw it 53 times and and they barely got over the total last week, I really don’t see Sparty throwing much at all here. As you mentioned they should have success running it but I don’t see them playing at a high pace
 
survive&advance said:
I’ll be against ya on this one. Indiana threw it 53 times and and they barely got over the total last week, I really don’t see Sparty throwing much at all here. As you mentioned they should have success running it but I don’t see them playing at a high pace
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Despite the amount of passes Hoosiers really controlled the tempo and milked lot of clock. What really annoyed me is they started faking injuries every other play to slow wku offense down, it was a total sham. I dunno what they can do but someone should really stop that garbage, it so blatant when defenses do that shit. I’m not sure it matters if sparty controls tempo, wku scores fast when they get rolling. Their tackling so poor I figure run game will gash them for some big ones. Hoosiers back doesn’t really have that ability. I’m pretty sure sparty gonna put up 35+, I have very little worry wku can handle the rest even if they only have the ball 25 min. I mean outside last week sparty games been fairly high and facing offenses not nearly as lethal as this one. At least one of us win! Lol
 
I didn’t feel like it was ever really in danger of not going over last week, and ya also gotta realize Hoosiers settled for a bunch of Fgs in scoring range, could have been way higher. I don’t think sparty will settle hardly at all, Hoosiers run game not very good so they stalled. Sparty shouldn’t have that problem.
 
2daBank said:
I didn’t feel like it was ever really in danger of not going over last week, and ya also gotta realize Hoosiers settled for a bunch of Fgs in scoring range, could have been way higher. I don’t think sparty will settle hardly at all, Hoosiers run game not very good so they stalled. Sparty shouldn’t have that problem.
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You have me second guessing myself now Lol. I hate taking college unders so prob gonna be a small bet on it but I have to do it out of principle here assuming Mel Tucker is gonna want to slow this game down
 
Certainly not trying to talk ya off but I feel like we only gonna have so many chances on wku overs until they start getting lined a td higher. Once they get into the upper 60s or 70s I won’t be on them anymore. They have a lot of games in conf USA coming up I imagine gonna have super high totals on!
 
survive&advance said:
You have me second guessing myself now Lol. I hate taking college unders so prob gonna be a small bet on it but I have to do it out of principle here assuming Mel Tucker is gonna want to slow this game down
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It possible. Just looking at what sparty been able to score this year makes it hard for me to think they won’t score plenty here. Wku d is incredibly suspect. Then I look at that NW game and sparty had no interest going slow.

You could be right and they really try to play keep away here, it probably is the right strategy. I just don’t know it will matter as long as they efficient on offense which id think is likely. Then I look at sparty pass d and gotta think wku will be efficient as well.

Maybe all those pass attempts by Hoosiers deceiving cause I think wku only had 3 possessions in 1st half, then got a 4th having only a little time so had to take a fg. 3 of their 4 drives got into scoring range in 1st half, once they turned over on downs then the last they had to take fg cause ran out of time. They only had 1 bad drive and think it fair to say Hoosiers pass defense is better than sparty. In second half was more the same, only recall 2 wku drives that ended in a punt, and one was thar 4th and 1 at midfield im sure coach would want back! When wku doesn’t score it takes no time off clock, when they do it pretty quick.

I really think they a td low here, I was more worried about last week, I actually liked wku w the points (and ml) more, I didn’t pull trigger on over till very late cause had bit of doubt just cause Hoosiers strength is their pass d and I didn’t trust their offense a great deal. To me this one shoulda been higher cause I trust sparty to score 5+ tds and think their pass d A issue here. I dunno how walker doesn’t go for 2 bills minumum! Amd I don’t think it gonna be 5ypc grind it out type runs, more like 8-10 per!! I like this to hit 70 but I been wrong before!! Lol
 
Seems like there some mixed opinion bout it early on as I’ve seen it bounce back and forth right around 61, looks like over taking money when it below that but once it gets above under money comes back.
 
Not sure I’m a huge buyer on WF yet? Nothing impressive about beating the noles. Not sure what whipping uva means cause I don’t like them either! Lol. I been up and down with my feeling bout satterfield but think I’m interested in ville catching 7.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Hangover city for Nebraska. After two excruciating road losses this is the exact type of game a middling team with a bad coach comes home and loses as a double digit favorite to a coach with a great record of success as a double digit dog.
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I'm not getting that vibe. They need a win and want it bad. Home night game. They'll probably continue to do stupid shit to make a game of it, but that won't be because of a hangover.
 
2daBank said:
Despite the amount of passes Hoosiers really controlled the tempo and milked lot of clock. What really annoyed me is they started faking injuries every other play to slow wku offense down, it was a total sham. I dunno what they can do but someone should really stop that garbage, it so blatant when defenses do that shit. I’m not sure it matters if sparty controls tempo, wku scores fast when they get rolling. Their tackling so poor I figure run game will gash them for some big ones. Hoosiers back doesn’t really have that ability. I’m pretty sure sparty gonna put up 35+, I have very little worry wku can handle the rest even if they only have the ball 25 min. I mean outside last week sparty games been fairly high and facing offenses not nearly as lethal as this one. At least one of us win! Lol
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Indiana loves to fake injuries. It was disgraceful a couple of years ago in Lincoln.
 
What in the world is going with the WKU/Sparty total? This is Pinny but it's across the board.

09/28 01:28 PM64 -11064 -110
09/28 12:13 PM63 -11963 -102
09/28 12:12 PM63 -11263 -108
09/28 12:10 PM62 -12062 -101
09/28 12:08 PM64½ -11064½ -110
09/28 11:46 AM62 -10762 -113
09/28 10:58 AM62 -10062 -121
09/27 10:00 PM62 -10862 -112
09/27 09:48 PM62 -11062 -110
09/27 07:35 PM60½ -12060½ -101
09/27 07:22 PM60½ -11060½ -110
09/27 02:46 PM61½ -10961½ -111
09/27 11:22 AM61½ -11061½ -110
 
BiffTFinancial said:
What in the world is going with the WKU/Sparty total? This is Pinny but it's across the board.

09/28 01:28 PM64 -11064 -110
09/28 12:13 PM63 -11963 -102
09/28 12:12 PM63 -11263 -108
09/28 12:10 PM62 -12062 -101
09/28 12:08 PM64½ -11064½ -110
09/28 11:46 AM62 -10762 -113
09/28 10:58 AM62 -10062 -121
09/27 10:00 PM62 -10862 -112
09/27 09:48 PM62 -11062 -110
09/27 07:35 PM60½ -12060½ -101
09/27 07:22 PM60½ -11060½ -110
09/27 02:46 PM61½ -10961½ -111
09/27 11:22 AM61½ -11061½ -110
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I saw it bouncing a lot between 60.5/61.5 the other day. I grabbed at 61 cause I’m happy there. Makes sense to me it flying up now since I thought it was a td low! Sure felt like there was a difference of opinion around 61 tho, dunno what changed it? Gotta think a syndicate or big tout place gave over out?
 
2daBank said:
I saw it bouncing a lot between 60.5/61.5 the other day. I grabbed at 61 cause I’m happy there. Makes sense to me it flying up now since I thought it was a td low! Sure felt like there was a difference of opinion around 61 tho, dunno what changed it? Gotta think a syndicate or big tout place gave over out?
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Think you may be onto something, Tuesday CFB total steam isn't something I can really explain any other way (maybe weather-related under steam but not this).
 
BiffTFinancial said:
What in the world is going with the WKU/Sparty total? This is Pinny but it's across the board.

09/28 01:28 PM64 -11064 -110
09/28 12:13 PM63 -11963 -102
09/28 12:12 PM63 -11263 -108
09/28 12:10 PM62 -12062 -101
09/28 12:08 PM64½ -11064½ -110
09/28 11:46 AM62 -10762 -113
09/28 10:58 AM62 -10062 -121
09/27 10:00 PM62 -10862 -112
09/27 09:48 PM62 -11062 -110
09/27 07:35 PM60½ -12060½ -101
09/27 07:22 PM60½ -11060½ -110
09/27 02:46 PM61½ -10961½ -111
09/27 11:22 AM61½ -11061½ -110
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Head fake by big boys?
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Think you may be onto something, Tuesday CFB total steam isn't something I can really explain any other way (maybe weather-related under steam but not this).
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I believe it used to be the day one them big tout services released their plays on totals. I havbt kept up with that for years tho so I could be wrong. Lol.
 
mcculran said:
Head fake by big boys?
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I think the most likely thing is big boys getting it back down under 61 then went to pound town! I screwed up not getting the 60.5 but happy with 61! I promise I had nothing to do with the move!! Safe to say my little $100 bet didn’t influence anything!! Lmfao

Heard few weeks ago ncaa games landed on 62 like 2.4% of the time. Pretty significant I’d say. So as mentioned the other day I wanted to get in before that number.
 
I guess we will see if there really was a difference of opinion on 61 since I watched it go back and forth across that number a bunch the other day. If it was a difference of opinion gotta think it would come back down, if it was line manipulation it probably steam up and up!
 
2daBank said:
I guess we will see if there really was a difference of opinion on 61 since I watched it go back and forth across that number a bunch the other day. If it was a difference of opinion gotta think it would come back down, if it was line manipulation it probably steam up and up!
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Take a look at big units live betting thread in the NFL forum for the Monday nighter...
 
Am I crazy or does the pitt/Gtech total seem really high? I said that bout mizzou/BC last week and got beat thanks to bunch of big plays in 1st half, lol. Had the damn thing played from beginning the way BC controlled tempo in 2nd half woulda been ok.

Back to this one I seriously don’t get it, 59 really? I know pitt games have been high scoring for most part but this best defense they will have seen imo. I don’t expect either team has much success on the ground. Pitt cause their run game straight garbage, tech cause pitt plays solid run d. Maybe that leads to a ton of passes? I dunno. Even tho pitt stinks at running it they general still try to be balanced. Texh gonna try to run whether they having success or not. Jackets held unc to 22 points, 14 before it got out of hand! Everything I’ve seen from tech defense this year says to me pitt not scoring in the 30s here. Last year pitt scored 34 but don’t think they much better this year on offense and Gtech d looks much improved. 51-54 bout where I woulda expected this to be.
 
I don’t follow cuse really closely but taking anyone as dogs to the noles seems like a good idea these days! Seems like they back to playing solid defense and appear to have a solid run game! Shouldnt that be enough? Doesn’t appear they ask the qb to do much. On the surface fsu run defense appears decent but I’m not sure if that cause they are good or cause they have played teams who preferred passing all over them? Wake ran w quite a bit of success. More importantly for me is if cuse takes away noles ability to run the ball they should tee off on Milton as they have the 12th best sack rate in the country! Noles terrible protecting the qb getting sacked on almost 15% of drop backs and pressured on numerous others. Defense and run game travel and facing a total mess of a team.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Where is everyone on Cincy and ND? Another big game this weekend. Not getting a ton of attention / talk.
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I’m all bout cincy. I think their defense should control this game as Irish Oline hasn’t been good, they rank in the 120s in ypc and pass protection. Cincy dline should eat all game! Just gotta hope cincy cleans up all the stupid mistakes they made at Indy, hoping fickle got it fixed with the bye. Way I see it is if we get both teams A game cincy wins and prob by a td or more! Cincy plays like they did at Hoosiers they lose, don’t think that will happen again.

Irish been a really good dog under Kelly but think this a pretty strong line for Bearcats. I’m not even sure how great this win will look at end of year as I kinda expect Irish lose a few games before it all said and done. Their run game and oline just not strong.
 
Inspekdah said:
How good is Miami’s pass defense? Virginia can’t run the ball.
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I don’t think any the canes defense very good. Teams been pretty much doing whatever they want on ground or thru air. Most teams have ran the ball so maybe that weakened their pass d?
 
You know what's really weird? I have heard almost no one say 'I like Bama this week!' - I mean how often has that happened the last few years? And I'm not talking about here. I mean just all your casual friends, buddies around the office, people talking in the coffee line, etc.
 
Ryno14 said:
You know what's really weird? I have heard almost no one say 'I like Bama this week!' - I mean how often has that happened the last few years? And I'm not talking about here. I mean just all your casual friends, buddies around the office, people talking in the coffee line, etc.
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Kinda feels the same with bama, Ou, nobody laying that number w Clemson! And Uga to a extent, although I have heard few cases for them. Bear and Steve talked bout a little on podcast saying it felt like lot of these sizable dogs were getting way more love than typical. Kinda spooks me, I might steer clear of all those if my card big enough without. I’m learning to be able to watch these ones I want to see without betting them! It has only taken 30 years!! Lol
 
Ryno14 said:
You know what's really weird? I have heard almost no one say 'I like Bama this week!' - I mean how often has that happened the last few years? And I'm not talking about here. I mean just all your casual friends, buddies around the office, people talking in the coffee line, etc.
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I’m kinda thinking maybe just wait till half and see if bama up like always and possibly get a better number live or at half. Anytime I pass on bama 1st half I feel dumb, like I did at Gators just cause I liked them fg! Didnt change bama covering at half! Lol
 
Ryno14 said:
You know what's really weird? I have heard almost no one say 'I like Bama this week!' - I mean how often has that happened the last few years? And I'm not talking about here. I mean just all your casual friends, buddies around the office, people talking in the coffee line, etc.
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:cool:
 
2daBank said:
Certainly not trying to talk ya off but I feel like we only gonna have so many chances on wku overs until they start getting lined a td higher. Once they get into the upper 60s or 70s I won’t be on them anymore. They have a lot of games in conf USA coming up I imagine gonna have super high totals on!
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I don’t know. Looks like 38-14 to me.
 
Miami pass eff D is 10th ACC, but UVA is last and UVA run D is last as well. Miami run D mid-pack
 
Sagarin Favorites Plays....last week we had favorites that were lower-rated by Sagarin. Here are their results:

BC was rated 3 spots higher than Mizzou. Mizzou away favored loses ATS!
Stanford was rated 3 spots higher than UCLA. UCLA away favored wins ATS!
FAU was 2 spots higher than Air Force. AF Home favored wins ATS!
Kansas State was rated 4 spots higher than Okie State. Okie State home favored wins ATS!
UAB was rated 4 spots higher than Tulane. Tulane home favored loses ATS!
Nebraska was rated 13 spots higher than Sparty. Sparty home favored loses ATS!
MTSU was rated 15 spots higher than Charlotte. Charlotte home favored pushes ATS!
New Mexico was rated 20 spots higher than UTEP. UTEP home favored rolls ATS!

Overall 4-3-1 ATS...away favs 1-1 ATS....home favs 3-2-1 ATS.

This week we have the following higher-rated teams not getting any love from the linesmakers:

Notre Dame is rated 8 spots higher than Cincy who opened as a -1 road fav
Tennessee is rated 1 spot higher than Mizzou who opened as a -3 home fav
Michigan is rated 26 spots higher than Wisky who opened as a +1 home dog but has since gone fav
Cuse is rated 25 spots higher than FSU who opened as a -4.5 home fav
Southern Miss is rated 28 spots higher than Rice who opened as a -1.5 home fav
Liberty is rated 1 spot higher than UAB who opened as a -2 home fav
Washington is rated 15 spots higher than Oregon State who opened as a -2.5 home fav
ODU is rated 16 spots higher than UTEP who opened as a -5.5 home fav

Just thought I'd share FWIW!!

:popcorn:
 
TE Woods is out for UVA, he’s been a nice weapon for them. I wonder how much Mia will trust QB Van Dyke? Could be a heavier Canes run o maybe.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Sagarin Favorites Plays....last week we had favorites that were lower-rated by Sagarin. Here are their results:

BC was rated 3 spots higher than Mizzou. Mizzou away favored loses ATS!
Stanford was rated 3 spots higher than UCLA. UCLA away favored wins ATS!
FAU was 2 spots higher than Air Force. AF Home favored wins ATS!
Kansas State was rated 4 spots higher than Okie State. Okie State home favored wins ATS!
UAB was rated 4 spots higher than Tulane. Tulane home favored loses ATS!
Nebraska was rated 13 spots higher than Sparty. Sparty home favored loses ATS!
MTSU was rated 15 spots higher than Charlotte. Charlotte home favored pushes ATS!
New Mexico was rated 20 spots higher than UTEP. UTEP home favored rolls ATS!

Overall 4-3-1 ATS...away favs 1-1 ATS....home favs 3-2-1 ATS.

This week we have the following higher-rated teams not getting any love from the linesmakers:

Notre Dame is rated 8 spots higher than Cincy who opened as a -1 road fav
Tennessee is rated 1 spot higher than Mizzou who opened as a -3 home fav
Michigan is rated 26 spots higher than Wisky who opened as a +1 home dog but has since gone fav
Cuse is rated 25 spots higher than FSU who opened as a -4.5 home fav
Southern Miss is rated 28 spots higher than Rice who opened as a -1.5 home fav
Liberty is rated 1 spot higher than UAB who opened as a -2 home fav
Washington is rated 15 spots higher than Oregon State who opened as a -2.5 home fav
ODU is rated 16 spots higher than UTEP who opened as a -5.5 home fav

Just thought I'd share FWIW!!

:popcorn:
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Added note....all the home favs that were lower rated by DDs all won...we have 5 home favs this week that are all lower-rated by DDs....Beavs, UTEP, Wisky, FSU, and Rice....ML plays on all perhaps??

:popcorn:
 
M.W. said:
Thanks. There's an old angle to look to fade big favorites at Homecoming. Perfect example last week at Minnesota. Wish I'd known that was their HC game.
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Interesting: you would think ya get a good effort in that game!? Wonder why that is? Kids thinking more about the ass they gonna crush that night?
 
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