week 5 dfs/prop discussion

[2daBank]

Scopey busy so he said i could go ahead and start this, unlike him i dont have any great incite to add right out the jump as im trying to use dk app to get numbers but being a pain for me since im 5 miles from a legal state! lol.. so ill start with some guys i like but obviously depends on the numbers if they playable,, please feel free to add!!

1st and foremost for dfs i think ya gotta be looking at both the browns rbs, neither chubb or hunt very expensive and the matchup is killer.. what i know about chargers head coach is he a big time analytics guy and his defensive philosophy is let you run cause it not as efficient! this not a good matchup for that strategy, browns love to run and will happily take the 6+ ypc chargers allow, stephanski totally willing to take that on 1st down or 2nd and long as he a new age guy in the sense he will punish them for allowing 3rd and even 4th and short!! im playing both these guys and even in the same lineups! ill have at least one on every team this weekend,, interested to see their prop numbers as well..

unfortunately dk dfs isnt offering any contest besides single game that allow the morning london game, i havnt checked fanduel yet, maybe they will. the reason i want? cause im a sucker and for the 2nd or 3rd time i really think this will be pitts day!! jets actually not bad vs te but think pitts more a wr here with ridley not making the trip! if he ever gonna do something big i think this the week!! ill be looking for reception, yards, and td props for him hoping they not too high considering he not been that great!! lol. ill be looking to play some corey davis as well as i think the more wilson improves the more he will put up wr1 numbers..


gonna be looking at both bills rbs and CEH in the sunday night game,, i think both these defenses will beg the other offense to run the ball and im sure they will be willing.. just gonna be a matter of where we can get numbers on singletary and moss since they so evenly split.. think ill be keying moss and CEH in dfs.

def gonna be looking at arron jones as my expensive back in dfs and will be looking at his receptions, total yards, and tds, bungals defense is much improved but they are allowing a crazy high number of receptions by RBs and did you see jags gash them in the run game thu night? i guess mildly concerning after a fumble dillon got a bunch of run last week but that just means he be on a mission here, they pay him too much to keep him in the dog house!! big day coming in this one!!

think you gotta get some of cousins and the vikings wrs after they were totally shut down by browns last week, i hate cousins but he was on fire up until that game and think line says it all here, big bounce back spot, lions pass d last in the league in yards per pass attempt and allowing 15 per catch!! jefferson and thelien all day and will be looking at cousins yardage props as well as have him in a number of lineups.

on paper titans and jags run defenses look pretty solid, the pass d not so much,.. i dunno what wrs are healthy for titans? i do know marvin jones jr is cheap in dfs and i suspect ill be playing a reception over prop with him as well!!!

ok my eyes are tired but just wanted to get this started, look forward to everyone chiming in and when i actually make plays will add them here.. surely i can contribute more to the forum doing this than trying to pick nfl sides where i know im basically a coin flipper!!! lol

 

[2daBank]

almost forgot one crazy idea,, ill def have trey lance in a big tourney or 2! ill be looking for a rushing yards over prop as well.. i know some around here hate the rookie qbs but i think niners offense gonna be way better with this kid,., they wernt going anywhere with jimmy g.

 

[ScopeY]

Good shit 2dabank

NEP/HOU

Houston technically in a good run matchup but the only time they've had rbs get successful fantasy points is week 1, when they led throughout. It hasn't happened since, nor the RB relevance. Pass. I don't want any part of Cooks as he will be taken out of the game, if you want to take a shot on amendola (revenge!?) or the pass catching back (DJ) be my guest.

Pats in a good run spot, and have a positive gamescript. If Stephenson is a healthy scratch again, and with white on the IR, Harris will have a ton of success, and someone I will have my eye on for props. Pats Defense is of course viable. I can see a path to meyers getting double digit targets, and he actually has a lot of routes run in the 20... but if he doesn't get it early, I can see myself shaking my head and wishing I sat on my hands with this one.

Prop Interest - D. Harris/Pats D

MIA/TBB

This game has the fastest pace of the week and its not even close. Both teams are top 3 in sec/play, and top 8 in neutral situation (which I guess could separate fast). I want to be apart of it. What's great is that Miami won't be able to run, and should be playing from behind. Pass. Pass. Pass. The next good thing? Brissett can't through the ball deep. Underneath. Underneath. Underneath. I'll be on Waddle props, possible Gesicki too. You could go Parker as well his targets have been consistent, and his snaps are highest on the team but I'd rather go the guys with depressed numbers.\

Now.... do we finally have a true RB1 in tampa!? It would be very nice to see bernard out again, as it'll put fournette on the 25~ touch range. Which is nasty for a guy at his current price/projection. They're number 9 in line push for the week as well. Sign me up. Only WR I'm interesting in is godwin. Most of his routes come from the slot which will avoid X/Byron Jones. He leads the big 3 in snaps, Don't hate a punt at TE with brate if gronk is out, but your choice.

Prop Interest - Fournette/Waddle --------- Godwin/Gesicki
Game Interest --- Over

 

[ScopeY]

GBP/CIN

We go from fastest pace and its not even close, to slowest pace and its not even close. Now... I want to target this game, and its 50 point O/U, but I want to step back and be a bit underweight, and I want to take the under, but idk if I can. In terms of DFS, the other problem is that they're (cincy) are cheappp... with no mixon too, no jaire alexander. Another thing, higgins is back, creating a 3 headed wr monster, which can arguably battle Tampa for best 3 (or zona?), but that can cause complications. So kind of struggling with what I want to do here.

When higgins played, chase was the deep shot threat, so you may see his aDOT closer to weeks 1-2 (17.81), opposed to weeks 3-4 (11.42). So for GPPs, he makes sense. I'll probably scratch boyd of my list, I think the short gains they will find success running the ball, and I want the higher ceiling players (chase/higgins) if I'm targetting it.

Cincy coach came out and said it could be a committee? I'll believe it when I see it, but Perine should be the guy to get first licks, and is in a spot where he could find success. Mixon-less plays perine was out there 90% of the time. I know it'll drop, but 70-80% of snaps is a bargain at that price, but not going to be a free square for me.

When it comes to GBP, I'm avoiding the backfield, its close to a 60-40/65-35 split, and I don't want a part of that. You can make a case for lazard or cobb, but meh. Adams is the question we have to answer. Even in a slow, methodical offense, the guy gets 30%+ target share, and 25%+ air yards from mr. rodgers. his average are 10+/100+. If he breaks that, with a TD or 2, and its slate breaking numbers. Don't hate a game stack, but again not going overboard.

I think Cincy has a home dog of +3 seems tasty

Prop Interest - Meh ----- Higgins OR Chase, Adams ------ Perine?
Side Interest - Cincy

 

[ScopeY]

TEN/JAC

Tied for 2nd fastest pace of the main slate (t3 for the week) I have interest here. Both QBs have good DVOA matchups, Jags Oline - which is the only NFL unit to return all 5 starters from last year, has the 3rd best offensive line push of the main slate, and 4th best in adjusted sack rate. PLEASE let hyde be a scratch again. Last week JRob played on 95% of snaps, and is practically a must have if he's out (and still a have if hyde is in). Tavon Austion got the snap share chark was accustomed too, but lawrence targetted him twice... it was shenault who saw the boost in production. I have an interest in him, and his, what appears to be, higher aDOT with chark out. Last week it was 13.57, prior 3 weeks, 4.38. This was with NEVER playing from behind last week.... and as stated from up top, its another dream spot. I'm fine with a marvin jones play too.
AJ Brown back eliminates westbrook, I still have an interest in slot man rogers, as jags are pretty weak in that area. I think brown is at minimum a 5+, 50+ player, with great ceiling/td equity, play if you want too, or avoid because of return from injury... it could be an ownership advantageous spot. Which brings me to the last man, king henry. The guy is averaging 32 carries last 3 weeks, even with a 3YPC, thats 100~ rushing yards.... and its been spoken about, but he is getting bigger share/returns because they're throwing to him. 2/3 catches, another 20/30 yards.... the guys at minimum 16 points, you almost can't pass up that floor and we didn't even talk about his ceiling on those totals plus touchdowns. You need to begin here, and if you're thinking of fading him, you're going to need highly leveraged players to hit.

Prop Interest - JRob/Shenault/Henry ----- Brown/Jones ---- Rogers
Side Interest - Over ----- slight jags lean.

 

[dg84]

Just a heads up in case you weren't aware, but I believe 4 NE O-lineman are out due to injuries & Covid. The center Andrews is the only one available.

 

[ScopeY]

Just a heads up in case you weren't aware, but I believe 4 NE O-lineman are out due to injuries & Covid. The center Andrews is the only one available.

Love it, ty

 

[mcculran]

Going cheap at qb like i usually do….cousins, darnold, d jones, even some brissett

RB is deep this week imo…..henry, kamara, a jones, chubb, j robinson, d williams, d harris….

WR fairly tough to me. Mainly mix/match pairing with above qb. Really like j ross as cheap option again, with shep/slayton still out.

TE really like gisecki like everybody else in the world. Like schultz too in that range. Couple cheap options i like in conklin and brate. Kmet sneaky dirt cheap option if bears can get anything going against shitty ass LV secondary. Dont wanna chase uzomah, but he looked damn good last week, and gb d can be had

 

[2daBank]

Sorry I wasn’t able to get back in here other day. Ended up having lot of crap I had to do Sunday. Once again props were way better to me than I would have did trying to pick these games! Did pretty well and would have got head busted playing sides! Lol.

Didn’t do so great in any dfs tourneys cause I pretty much whiffed on going bargain basement qbs. Lance sucked, cousins sucked, Borrow was ok but compared to ppl who used Brady or Herbert I had no chance. Didn’t even matter did pretty good w rb and hit on some cheaper wrs. Didn’t do great at te either since couldn’t use pitts in any of them, did cash all pitts props easily!

Tonight I like Wentz over 9.5 rushing yards, that kinda feels like stealing as even with banged up ankles I don’t think he can help himself but to take off a few times! He had a 10 yarder last week and figure he healthier now, think he lost some yards on kneel downs at end maybe? Shouldn’t be a issue in this one.

gotta go with Lamar over 232.5 passing yards, he has hit this every game and the last 2 his rushing attempts been way down and passing yards way up! On that note I also like Watkins over 40.5 receiving yards, pretty much like all ravens main pass catchers over but think better to just stick with Lamar over yards. Also think Lamar under 67.5 rushing makes sense but not sure I really want to play it?

 

[2daBank]

GBP/CIN

We go from fastest pace and its not even close, to slowest pace and its not even close. Now... I want to target this game, and its 50 point O/U, but I want to step back and be a bit underweight, and I want to take the under, but idk if I can. In terms of DFS, the other problem is that they're (cincy) are cheappp... with no mixon too, no jaire alexander. Another thing, higgins is back, creating a 3 headed wr monster, which can arguably battle Tampa for best 3 (or zona?), but that can cause complications. So kind of struggling with what I want to do here.

When higgins played, chase was the deep shot threat, so you may see his aDOT closer to weeks 1-2 (17.81), opposed to weeks 3-4 (11.42). So for GPPs, he makes sense. I'll probably scratch boyd of my list, I think the short gains they will find success running the ball, and I want the higher ceiling players (chase/higgins) if I'm targetting it.

Cincy coach came out and said it could be a committee? I'll believe it when I see it, but Perine should be the guy to get first licks, and is in a spot where he could find success. Mixon-less plays perine was out there 90% of the time. I know it'll drop, but 70-80% of snaps is a bargain at that price, but not going to be a free square for me.

When it comes to GBP, I'm avoiding the backfield, its close to a 60-40/65-35 split, and I don't want a part of that. You can make a case for lazard or cobb, but meh. Adams is the question we have to answer. Even in a slow, methodical offense, the guy gets 30%+ target share, and 25%+ air yards from mr. rodgers. his average are 10+/100+. If he breaks that, with a TD or 2, and its slate breaking numbers. Don't hate a game stack, but again not going overboard.

I think Cincy has a home dog of +3 seems tasty

Prop Interest - Meh ----- Higgins OR Chase, Adams ------ Perine?
Side Interest - Cincy

You were right to avoid packers backfield. Dillan pretty much stole a bunch of Jones pass catching work and got more run at the goalline. Jones salvaged a decent day with that big run late and he did still get over receptions even tho they went for no yards, he wasn’t worth the money in dfs tho. Needed him to get the plays Dillan made in passing game to have been a good play.

 

[ScopeY]

Burrow, Chase + Adams was fine for me.

Brady, Fournette (sometimes), Godwin + Waddle or Gesicki could have been so much better, but I did cash with those lineups. I had the wrong WR for tampa, and miamis obviously weren't good. Brissett was dump dump dump, but all to gaskin. Argh. Had the over in the game so that was solid.

Shenault was a bust, but JRob/Henry were solid.

Had Dak, Zeke Lamb, Toney (some golladay) lineups that were great too.

Cousins once were meh, hock/st. brown were my bring backs, but jefferson/mattison were of course good.

Failed D. Jones, Tanny, Lawrence... may be missing 1.

Onto tonight.

From a DFS perspective. The ideal lineup is 5 (winning team), 1 (losing team), by a mile. Also 4-2 is positive and only other lineup construction I'd consider. The top leverage captain slots are RB1/DST1/TE1 --- QB1, only 4 spots I'd consider a captain tonight. The big question mark is where do you put lamar... the guy is essentiall the QB1 and RB1, and its HARD to not captain his ass. My BEST recommendation is if you captain him in GPP, and you're not doing many entries, please make your roster unconventional, because you won't sniff the top if its a pretty standard lineup. Which kind of goes back to the highest leverage captain spot. It's a big gulp, but on the baltimore side of things, if you take a stab on one of their RBs in captain, and it panes out, it'll be a bigger leverage spot than any other showdown slate to date. As its a 3 headed monster, and everyone will be on Lamar. Idk if I can gulp that though. I will have some ravens D/Andrews there. a smidge of lamar (in unconventional lineups), and maybe a murray or bell captain. From a colts perspective, I'm of course happy to take Taylor captain, and maybe a shot at an indy D one (which less than 1% of lineups will have), now to we take doyle, who is off the injury report (last week he had back issues), or allie cox who had 2 tds on 5 catches..... I think this makes or breaks this kind of lineup.

Onto the teams overall that help give boosts, take away from above comments. The game is 15th of the week in terms of pace of play. Balty is in the bottom range of fantasy points given up to RB's AND TE's (hello cox or doyle, hmm.). Despite the RB numbers, the colts have the 4th worst Oline push of the week. That, coupled with a negative game script could mean hines (boost on ppr sites --- DK's). Colts have the 10th best pressure rate of the week, can be good for the Defense script, but Lamar is also the QB that can and will rollout, so good for lamar rushing stats, add in the fact that the colts are in the bottom range of DVOA in regards to pass defense. Indy is in the top range defensively in RB DVOA, and fantasy points given up to rb's. More and more ammo for lamar capt.

 

[ScopeY]

If you think Indy plays from behind (probable script), campbell makes sense. His snap share is between 60-80% when playing from behind (weeks 1-3) and leads the top 3 receivers in air yards (pittman/pascal/campbell). He's the cheap, deep shot you care more about/over pascal in that script. If you're going opposite game script, with Taylor dominating, I'd avoid campbell, last week in that script, he was out their 40%~ of the time.

 

[ScopeY]

in aDOT not air yards**

 

[ScopeY]

Duvernay/Proche are relegated to prayers/homerun hits please with boykin back. Boykin is a cheap price to get 5 balty's in a lineup. I think he sees over 50% snap share, and is easily a value add player.

I'm fine if you want hollywood brown, but quietly, watkins has lead the wr's in snaps every. week. and is not to far behind in aDOT (both are acceptable - Brown over 15, watkins over 13). But watkins may be at half ownership when compared to holluywood, and I want the ownership leverage/price in a spot I consider them equals

Andrews may be a must click.

I'll have more murray than bell.

 

[ScopeY]

Lol thought boykin was 3K, he's 200.... yes please

 

[rambler882]

Watkins o3.5 rec seems like a trap bet but I'm going to bite

 

[mcculran]

Burrow, Chase + Adams was fine for me.

Brady, Fournette (sometimes), Godwin + Waddle or Gesicki could have been so much better, but I did cash with those lineups. I had the wrong WR for tampa, and miamis obviously weren't good. Brissett was dump dump dump, but all to gaskin. Argh. Had the over in the game so that was solid.

Shenault was a bust, but JRob/Henry were solid.

Had Dak, Zeke Lamb, Toney (some golladay) lineups that were great too.

Cousins once were meh, hock/st. brown were my bring backs, but jefferson/mattison were of course good.

Failed D. Jones, Tanny, Lawrence... may be missing 1.

Onto tonight.

From a DFS perspective. The ideal lineup is 5 (winning team), 1 (losing team), by a mile. Also 4-2 is positive and only other lineup construction I'd consider. The top leverage captain slots are RB1/DST1/TE1 --- QB1, only 4 spots I'd consider a captain tonight. The big question mark is where do you put lamar... the guy is essentiall the QB1 and RB1, and its HARD to not captain his ass. My BEST recommendation is if you captain him in GPP, and you're not doing many entries, please make your roster unconventional, because you won't sniff the top if its a pretty standard lineup. Which kind of goes back to the highest leverage captain spot. It's a big gulp, but on the baltimore side of things, if you take a stab on one of their RBs in captain, and it panes out, it'll be a bigger leverage spot than any other showdown slate to date. As its a 3 headed monster, and everyone will be on Lamar. Idk if I can gulp that though. I will have some ravens D/Andrews there. a smidge of lamar (in unconventional lineups), and maybe a murray or bell captain. From a colts perspective, I'm of course happy to take Taylor captain, and maybe a shot at an indy D one (which less than 1% of lineups will have), now to we take doyle, who is off the injury report (last week he had back issues), or allie cox who had 2 tds on 5 catches..... I think this makes or breaks this kind of lineup.

Onto the teams overall that help give boosts, take away from above comments. The game is 15th of the week in terms of pace of play. Balty is in the bottom range of fantasy points given up to RB's AND TE's (hello cox or doyle, hmm.). Despite the RB numbers, the colts have the 4th worst Oline push of the week. That, coupled with a negative game script could mean hines (boost on ppr sites --- DK's). Colts have the 10th best pressure rate of the week, can be good for the Defense script, but Lamar is also the QB that can and will rollout, so good for lamar rushing stats, add in the fact that the colts are in the bottom range of DVOA in regards to pass defense. Indy is in the top range defensively in RB DVOA, and fantasy points given up to rb's. More and more ammo for lamar capt.

Love this kinda shit….def moreso than plinko spread results. Got a question for you (and @2daBank) ……When you are making DK lineups, do you always do mini game stacks within each then fill out the rest with other guys you like from other games? I always find myself, when multi-entering, getting over-exposed to certain guys due to falling in a common price range. End up saying…well i don’t have marvin jones with the tb/mia stack so stick him in. Then i dont have marvin jones with the dak stack. How would you recommend combatting this? Any build thoughts appreciated…