Week 5 Big Ten Thread...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Gosh, time is flying so far this season. My apologies for the late start to the thread. I am almost out of the weeds life-wise...

Last week, felt damn good with the OSU tt call and the Mullings prop. Capped well, and a solid feeling.

PSU total was a great call and I let the # get away.

The MSU over was one I regret betting early. Would I do it again? Posssibly. Injuries and weather did not help. Also, I knew Chiles would throw picks to hurt drives and still went with it.

Anyways, felt solid about my capping here last week...

A few quick reviews as time is short...


Nebraska couldn't take that next step and lost a night game at home. Credit to Illinois -- turning into a Bert team no doubt. Huskers defense was underwhelming though. The run game also only mustered 100 or so yards. That isn't enough.

Ohio State gave up some early points and that helped the Team Total. I am sure this team is starting to get bored. We're only a few weeks away from the game in Autzen luckily.

Michigan came out how I hoped they would -- strong defense and run, run run. Make the game ugly. The passing game obviously was not good. That was to be expected. This game should have been a bit easier but that sequence with the strip sack and then fumble turned this into an all too tight 4th quarter. I was really happy with the defense. The USC passing game did get going, and remember that Will Johnson didn't finish this game. Still, much better effort and attention to detail. Mullings!!

Indiana continues to impress, albeit vs a bad team. The difference here is old Hoosier teams win this game something like 28-13. This team is different.

Rutgers had to hold on late, but solid road win for Shiano.

MSU probably should have won that game. I can also say the same with BC. Chiles is learning through mistakes. They have a plan, and are sticking to it. They really needed that one before the next 4 week stretch. But, at 3-1 they have to be VERY happy.


Alright, Week #5 is here!!


Washington heads to Rutgers for a Friday night tilt. They have a National Championship rematch on deck after this. The spread here is pretty fair. I'd imagine these two go 5-5 in a 10 game set. Rutgers may be cheap by a point to be honest...

Minnesota and Michigan battle it out for The Little Brown Jug once again at high noon in Ann Arbor. We know the Michigan gameplan. Can Minnesota stop it?

Well...

Iowa rushed for 272
North Carolina rushed for 147

Those are the P5 teams we can compare too.

I'd imagine a loaded box and Michigan would do well to have a few PA plays for Orji maybe down the seams to alleviate the pressure. I won't lie to you, this line is short in my opinion. I understand the one-dimensional offense right now but the defense should play well again and by the 2h they will wear down the Gophers. Feels like 27-13 to me. I will be on Mullings rush yards OVER once again.

Hoosiers seeing the love as a tuddy favorite at home to Maryland. Good barometer and capping game here, The total reflects a growing Hoosiers offense.

Nebraska a hefty tariff heading into West Lafayette. This a big game for them, they need to not let one tough loss keep beating them. Yes, Purdue is bad right now, but home dogs in the conference are never an easy out. I'll be spying a TT here of some sort -- maybe.

USC heads back home and tries to right the ship as heavy favorites over the Badgers. No real feel for this game to be honest....

Ohio State with a road game up in East Lansing in primetime on everyone's favorite channel, 'The Cock. This is good for a top team to hit the road and totally focus. They need a challenge of some sort, and a road game will bring that into focus. I'll be forthright here -- I'll be on TT's almost for sure. I like the game over, and do think Sparty gets 14-17 perhaps. I just don't see 31-7 here. I see more. Chiles will give OSU some short fields as well. Nothing locked in, but you can see where I am going here.

Illinois and Penn State is the best game in the conference this week. Why the heck is this line so high? I am it ready to announce Illinois to the playoffs but goodness would PSU really be -13 in Champaign? With that being said, now I'm leery due to the odd number. I am sure someone smarter than myself can break this down better.

Kudos to UCLA for hanging with LSU for over half the game, but this Oregon team will be a much bigger test. The Bruins are not good, which makes last week's first half all the more maddening. The Tiger gained over 450 yards and converted 10-15 on 3rd vs UCLA last week. Oregon will make them pay, no doubt. The Ducks finally looked like the Ducks at Oregon State heading into an early bye week. This one shouldn't be close...


Reno early leans:

Mullings Yards Over
Michigan (at minimum stalk for 2h)
OSU/MSU Over
OSU TT's
Nebraska TT
Oregon TT
Illinois??
 
Not betting them yes, but fascinated by this Indian team......I get the FOMO feeling on their spread run, but just cannot quite yet pull the trigger this week.

Agree on UW/Rutgers.......toss up and really see a rock fight, which means they probably both go crazy on offense and we get a semi-shootout

Only other leans are Illinois and USC.......Oregon maybe, but not sure I completely trust them quite yet and have seen them put up snoozers on the road.....that said, great spot off bye and catching UCLA off trip to DV......

The second i bet Nebraska, this Purdue team will play best game of year....pass
 
The best thing the B10 ever did was expand.
Yes the SEC did it too, but it’s just kinda the same to be honest.

I watch more B10 now than I ever did
 
Like Illinois a lot, trying to decide between FG +18 and 1H +10. Kinda like 1H as insurance against late score from Franklin to get the cover as he's made it a point to do it plenty of times...
Very good point. If Lions wear down Illni, Franklin will add 4th qtr points for sure. Came off thinking books inflated this line as Lions cover as favs of 6 to 24 pts something like 17-0 last few years. 1st half play sounds great.

Thinking Huskers smash boilermakers after their loss to ILL. Going to try alt line of -13.5 @ +121. But yeah, Purdue could play tough as Jimmymo said. Still trying it as I lean more to Husker's responding after loss.
 
Nebraska replaced their secondary coach over the summer. Think he was hitting some strange he shouldn't have been. Apparently, the new guy who was the Bills secondary coach had some ideas about coverages and that did not go well on Friday. Never seen our defense this confused since Rhule and White have been here. We bit on every play action fake, they had guys wide open in the middle of the field all night, it was awful.

Hopefully, they figure it out quickly.
 
The Illinois/PSU line looked like it was begging for Illinois money so I'm very leery of it. Bielema is a cash register as a road dog in conference (9-1 ATS, 5-5 straight up), but if the world is on Illinois after the Nebraska game it will give me a lot of pause. I never bet on Illinois because I would never be able to take the double whammy of disappointment, but Bielema as a road conference dog would be a regular play for me if I was a neutral observer.

As for the game, I was really surprised that Illinois ran effectively on Nebraska, so I again expect them to struggle in that area unless Lunney schemes it up very well. Also, Aaron Henry got absolutely worked by Kotelnicki last year, He's been better this year, but that is a tough assignment for him schematically because I think AK is the best in the business. Lunney dumped 600+ yards on Tom Ace's defense last year when he was at Indiana, so we'll see what happens there...obviously Allen has a few more talented pieces to work with now. I also think Biff's point is very good. The line is probably inflated because the books had to bake in Franklin's proclivity to do whatever it takes to cover in these games. You're paying a tax if you're backing Penn State as a result, but it's worked out for the bettors so far.
 
Nebraska replaced their secondary coach over the summer. Think he was hitting some strange he shouldn't have been. Apparently, the new guy who was the Bills secondary coach had some ideas about coverages and that did not go well on Friday. Never seen our defense this confused since Rhule and White have been here. We bit on every play action fake, they had guys wide open in the middle of the field all night, it was awful.

Hopefully, they figure it out quickly.
If Purdue pass blocks the way they did against ND and to a lesser extent against the Beavers, Huskers won't have to worry much about coverage because I think those defensive linemen will be playing pissed off coming off that game.
 
If Purdue pass blocks the way they did against ND and to a lesser extent against the Beavers, Huskers won't have to worry much about coverage because I think those defensive linemen will be playing pissed off coming off that game.
And to go with the only WRs that are a legitimate threat (Edrine and Smith) are out again for Purdue. Load up the box if you are Nebby and you will be fine.
 
The Illinois/PSU line looked like it was begging for Illinois money so I'm very leery of it. Bielema is a cash register as a road dog in conference (9-1 ATS, 5-5 straight up), but if the world is on Illinois after the Nebraska game it will give me a lot of pause. I never bet on Illinois because I would never be able to take the double whammy of disappointment, but Bielema as a road conference dog would be a regular play for me if I was a neutral observer.

As for the game, I was really surprised that Illinois ran effectively on Nebraska, so I again expect them to struggle in that area unless Lunney schemes it up very well. Also, Aaron Henry got absolutely worked by Kotelnicki last year, He's been better this year, but that is a tough assignment for him schematically because I think AK is the best in the business. Lunney dumped 600+ yards on Tom Ace's defense last year when he was at Indiana, so we'll see what happens there...obviously Allen has a few more talented pieces to work with now. I also think Biff's point is very good. The line is probably inflated because the books had to bake in Franklin's proclivity to do whatever it takes to cover in these games. You're paying a tax if you're backing Penn State as a result, but it's worked out for the bettors so far.
Good read.

This is the line that makes you overthink, even when you try not to...
 
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