WEEK 4

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
ONE UNIT

USC -13'/14' W/ L
TCU -3' W
Iowa -1 W
Fla +9'/10 L
Kansas -12' W
Utah -3 L

smaller
Louisville -15 1H W
S Ala -14 L
Wisky -6' L
JMU -10'/9' W
UNC +7 L
Auburn +7 T
Hawaii +3/ML W
Nebraska +7' live W
-------------------
WMU +14 W
Kenn St +7 W
ECU +7' L
Texas/SH 1H over 30 W
Memphis +3 1Q W
SDSU +14' W
Army +17' live W


LEANS

Nebraska l
Illinois l
ULL l
Temple w
BUFFALO l
UConn? l
Memphis? w
NIU l
WKU? w
LA TECH w
UTEP l
 
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NOT A LINE GUESS...
>> what the line should be, irrespective of wagering, injuries, and the SPOT

eg. this week I (would have) given you:
* OU -30 @ Tulane- now 22'/23 ..... horrible spot for OU > incredible overreaction?
* Georgia -2 ....opened at 6' - it's only gonna drop...SP+ has Vols favored
* Michigan -32 ...now 27'...Huskers on deck, HC out

NOTE: I'll update a bit each day - will try to adjust lines AFTER this week's games
>> these are raw, unadjusted numbers (since early) .....eg. Mizzou should probably be more than 3 / USC more than 18'

*updated lines will be in bold



THURS 9/18

RICE -6'
7:30 p.m.
CHARLOTTE


FRI 9/19

TULSA
7:00 p.m.
OKLAHOMA ST -12
T- Navy/Tulane ...OSU LOSS > BYE/Baylor
>> OSU 23-0 at home / TU covered last 2

IOWA -3
8:00 p.m.
RUTGERS
I - UMass/ Indy ...R- FCS/@ Minny
>> Iowa 22/30 RF ...12/15 as B10 <3 fav


SAT 9/20

NORTH TEXAS
12:00 p.m.
ARMY -2'
NT- Wazzu/SAla ...A- KSU W! > bye/@ECU (5)

SMU
12:00 p.m.
TCU -6
* Ponies won LY 66-42/Sonny EJECTED!
$ RT was covered 7/10

LOUISIANA -10
12:00 p.m.
EASTERN MICHIGAN
* ULL QB OFY

TEMPLE
12:00 p.m.
GEORGIA TECH -23'

NORTH CAROLINA
12:00 p.m.
UCF -5
* UNC- fcs/BYE ...UCF- bye/@KSU

UNLV -7
12:00 p.m.
MIAMI, OH
* UNLV - DOUBLE BYE ...M- bye/FCS

BYU -8
12:00 p.m.
EAST CAROLINA
* BYU- bye/@ Col ... ECU- @ CC/Army (5)

FLORIDA
12:00 p.m.
MIAMI, FL -7
*F- @ LSU/BYE ... M- USF/BYE

BOWLING GREEN
12:00 p.m.
LOUISVILLE -25
* L- bye/PITT

SYRACUSE
12:00 p.m.
CLEMSON -16
*C- @ GT/BYE

ILLINOIS
12:00 p.m.
INDIANA -4
*ILL- WMU/USC ...IN- FCS/IOWA

NC STATE
12:00 p.m.
DUKE -2
* NCST- TH-WF/VT ...D- @ Tul/@ Cuse

KENT ST
12:00 p.m.
FLORIDA ST -42
* F- bye/@ Va

TOLEDO -13
12:00 p.m.
WESTERN MICHIGAN

TROY
12:00 p.m.
BUFFALO -3
*T- Mem/BYE ...B- @ Kent St/UConn

MARYLAND
12:00 p.m.
WISCONSIN -8
*M- FCS/BYE ...W- @ ALABAMA/bye
$ LF 5-6 ats off SU loss

COASTAL CAROLINA
12:00 p.m.
SOUTH ALABAMA -15
*SA- @ Aub/@ NTX

UAB
12:45 p.m.
TENNESSEE -35
* T- GA/ @ Miss St

UTSA -4
2:00 p.m.
COLORADO ST
* UTSA 13/35 NC games

WYOMING
2:00 p.m.
COLORADO -16
*C- @ Hou -Fri/BYU

TEXAS TECH
2:00 p.m.
UTAH -4
* TT- Oreg St/BYE ...U- @ Wyo/@ WV

OREGON ST
3:00 p.m.
OREGON -35
*OSU- @TT/Hou ...O- @NW/@ PENN ST

AUBURN
3:30 p.m.
OKLAHOMA -5
*A- SALA/ @ A&M damn ...OU- @ Temple/BYE > Texas
$ OU won 27-21 LY

TULANE
3:30 p.m.
OLE MISS -14
*T- Duke/@ Tulsa ...M- Ark/LSU!

WEST VIRGINIA
3:30 p.m.
KANSAS -10
*WV- Pitt/UTAH... K- @Mizz L > BYE /Cinn

ARIZONA ST
3:30 p.m.
BAYLOR -3
*ASU- TXST/TCU ...FCS/@ OSU

MICHIGAN ST
3:30 p.m.
USC -18
*M- FCS/BYE ...U- @Purdue/@ Illinois (fade)

BALL ST
3:30 p.m.
UCONN -24
*B- fcs/BYE ...UC- @ Del/@ Buff

ARKANSAS -4
3:30 p.m.
MEMPHIS
*A- @ OLE MISS/ NOTRE DAME ...@ Troy/FAU

MICHIGAN -2
3:30 p.m.
NEBRASKA
*M- CMU/BYE ...N- FCS/BYE

PURDUE
3:30 p.m.
NOTRE DAME -25
*USC/BYE ... ND- A&M/@ Ark

STANFORD
3:30 p.m.
VIRGINIA -17
*S- BColl/SJSU ...V- FCS/ Fla St

SOUTH CAROLINA
3:30 p.m.
MISSOURI -5
*SC- Vandy/Kent ...M- ULL/UMASS!

NIU
4:15 p.m.
MISSISSIPPI ST -20'
*N- bye/SDSU ...M- FCS/TENN

FRESNO ST -3
6:00 p.m.
HAWAII

JAMES MADISON -13
6:00 p.m.
LIBERTY
* JMU- BYE/GASO ...L- @BG/@ODU
$ flames are gonna get killed

ARKANSAS ST -5
6:00 p.m.
KENNESAW ST
* ASU- Iowa St/ULM ...KSU- FCS/MTS

DELAWARE
6:00 p.m.
FIU -5

NEVADA
7:00 p.m.
WKU -12?

BOISE ST -10
7:00 p.m.
AIR FORCE
* B- bye/App St ...AF- @ Utah St/Hawaii

MARSHALL -1?
7:00 p.m.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

SOUTHERN MISS
7:30 p.m.
LOUISIANA TECH -2'

WASHINGTON -20'
7:30 p.m.
WASHINGTON ST
*W- bye/OHIO STATE ... Wazzu- @ NTX/@ Col St

GEORGIA ST
7:30 p.m.
VANDERBILT -27'
GSU - FCS/bye ...V- @ SCaro/Utah St
$$ GSU WON LY

SAM HOUSTON ST
8:00 p.m.
TEXAS -40
* T- UTEP/BYE

ULM
9:00 p.m.
UTEP -5
* ULM- bye/Ark St ...UTEP- @TX/LT

CALIFORNIA -13
10:30 p.m.
SAN DIEGO ST
*C- Minny/@BC ...SDSU- L>bye/ @ NIU
 
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Always great to see you staying one step ahead as it's what has worked so well for me over the years. Makes it easy to strike quickly as all the work is done in advance, not on the fly. Best of luck the rest of the way!
 
carolinablue said:
Always great to see you staying one step ahead as it's what has worked so well for me over the years. Makes it easy to strike quickly as all the work is done in advance, not on the fly. Best of luck the rest of the way!
Click to expand...

Yep it's incredible how fast these lines move now ....used to take a few days (seemingly) to cross key numbers
>> it's killing me to miss out on Circa/FD/DK openers (Texas)

The game has changed quite a bit, from the horrible numbers BOL, or 5Dimes released back in the day ......
 
bookieassassin said:
Yep it's incredible how fast these lines move now ....used to take a few days (seemingly) to cross key numbers
>> it's killing me to miss out on Circa/FD/DK openers (Texas)

The game has changed quite a bit, from the horrible numbers BOL, or 5Dimes released back in the day ......
Click to expand...
Man, those days of true first to market early lines at BOL along with the beauty of Pinnacle and 5D…If I knew then what I know now….could use that for quite a few things in my life haha.
 
bookieassassin said:
Never too early....

By far, the best way is to stay 2-3 weeks ahead:
Click to expand...
This is so true........makes me remember the days when I had the time not to be butter knife dull (like I am these days).....I had a standard line I would tell my gambling buddies all the time............if you don't have a very good idea who you are going to bet (college openers) by mid-morning Sunday, you are late
 
added smaller at MB

USC -14'


* might /should add to this later...have no idea how they keep pace here - line should be 17'/18 - close 20/21


EDIT: bumping it up at 13'
 
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bookieassassin said:
added smaller at MB

USC -14'


* might /should add to this later...have no idea how they keep pace here - line should be 17'/18 - close 20/21
Click to expand...
Agreed.

I've been waiting for this one. Prob my first "way too excited" lookahead this year. .

Side, TT and maybe game over all on my radar.

Took one stab on flat 14 about thirty mins ago.
 
SMU is .....not very good
>> data wise - the nation's worst performance week 1 vs mighty East Texas State (sic) - lost to Baylor at home, allowing 600 yards- now just off a life/death struggle with Mizzou State. OL stinks, talent at WR/RB, and on D seems to be down this year. Frogs are the opposite - much improved, rested and ready to kick the Ponies ass off a 66-42 beating LY. I don't see how the line does anything but go up.

TCU -3'
 
small play at MB

Louisville -15 1H

Like Louisville this week - but too many points probably.... off a really slow start / bad game vs JMU - and a pissed Brohm....off a bye- they should come out strong here. BG fat/happy off an upset of Liberty.
 
bookieassassin said:
SMU is .....not very good
>> data wise - the nation's worst performance week 1 vs mighty East Texas State (sic) - lost to Baylor at home, allowing 600 yards- now just off a life/death struggle with Mizzou State. OL stinks, talent at WR/RB, and on D seems to be down this year. Frogs are the opposite - much improved, rested and ready to kick the Ponies ass off a 66-42 beating LY. I don't see how the line does anything but go up.

TCU -3'
Click to expand...
Good stuff.

SMU Monday night showcase vs UNC has shaded the opinion up to this point, perhaps?
 
B.A.R. said:
Good stuff.

SMU Monday night showcase vs UNC has shaded the opinion up to this point, perhaps?
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I think you mean TCU vs UNC 👍🏼 I love this QB for the Frogs. Tough as hell and commitment to winning the BIG12. I think they just might. Great skill players as well… SMU doesn’t seem as sharp as they were last season and for the first time in a while Frogs actually want to pummel SMU and not looking ahead which has caught em in the past. GL. Great job on the line amigo, I’m stuck at TCU -6’ and still feel confident.
 
Wolfeman said:
I think you mean TCU vs UNC 👍🏼 I love this QB for the Frogs. Tough as hell and commitment to winning the BIG12. I think they just might. Great skill players as well… SMU doesn’t seem as sharp as they were last season and for the first time in a while Frogs actually want to pummel SMU and not looking ahead which has caught em in the past. GL. Great job on the line amigo, I’m stuck at TCU -6’ and still feel confident.
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Ya, just ignore me lol.

I was criss crossing my Texas teams.
 
USC has looked great, but they should have. Purdue first real challenge and gave them a couple issues. Mich St D better than Purdues.....is USC just gonna trot out there and throw 45 on the board? Jonathan Smith is an upgrade from Mel Tucker (but thats not saying much).....Has Lincoln Riley finally figured things out? What happens when the Trojans arent running for 8 ypc and wrs are running free behind the secondary? I look at and read a lot of different sites daily.....havent seen 1 single person from Saturday to Monday evening on Mich St.....doesn't mean anything really, as I'm sure early money is on USC -13ish and will dip back in with Mich St +17.5 or better ....but still....."everyone" is rarely correct....
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
USC has looked great, but they should have. Purdue first real challenge and gave them a couple issues. Mich St D better than Purdues.....is USC just gonna trot out there and throw 45 on the board? Jonathan Smith is an upgrade from Mel Tucker (but thats not saying much).....Has Lincoln Riley finally figured things out? What happens when the Trojans are running for 8 ypc and wrs are running free behind the secondary? I look at and read a lot of different sites daily.....havent seen 1 single person from Saturday to Monday evening on Mich St.....doesn't mean anything really, as I'm sure early money is on USC -13ish and will dip back in with Mich St +17.5 or better ....but still....."everyone" is rarely correct....
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Then ..........DIVE IN man > figure that shit out

A. what can Sparty do on D, to DISRUPT the USC offense? - can they take away their IDENTITY? can they get pressure/penetration?
B. can they move the chains, keep USC O off the field?

A MAJOR problem here for Sparty is their OL - they can't block anybody.... and Trojans are bringing pressure - much improved in their 2nd year under fine DC.
>> vs BC, WMU, and Youngstown State - they've gotten stuffed on 20% of rush attempts - and rank #128 sack % (12%). TERRIBLE. WMU had 4 sacks and 10 TFL >> 23% of Sparty rushing attempts were stuffed - behind the line.

Trojan D ranks near the top in TFL and sacks - doesn't mean much yet, just suggests that bringing pressure / creating havoc now is an emphasis. IMO - if Sparty can't move the ball, they are in serious trouble - note BC outgained them 457-380 at home.

At this point - VALUE is with USC - if the line was 20/21 - sure consider Sparty. Line opened short because USC let the stinking Boilers (underrated) hang around (USC stinks on the road). Not much suggests that Sparty can hang here.
 
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HairOfTheDog said:
What number are you waiting for on NIU BA? Not convinced Miss. St. will be focused for this one.
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Not sure how good NIU is.... I might get interested at 24. I didn't trust them vs Maryland and they played great, but the Terps might stink...

Typically these G5 teams will play hard vs one P4 team - mail in the other.... plus in a similar spot last year MSU got blown out, by Toledo - so they might not let up here.

Off a bye tho - NIU might stay close for awhile, I might play NIU 1H/1Q - then MSU live/2H. BOL this week....
 
Timh said:
BOL BA - Thoughts on NTex. and Army?
Click to expand...

YES

STAY FAR AWAY - or take N TX if you must - tough to see how Army keeps pace.

If it wasn't for that struggle at WMU - NTX would be the clear play here probably - as opening DOG esp.
>> Army is down a bit - but their D improves every year (Steele p. 217) - and totally shut NTX down in Denton LY

Army is off a bye, and as a short dog (<10) has covered 12/17. NTX just might be a team to play every week (until you lose- kinda thing)- but looks like a tall order to me, off Wazzu home romp - S Alabama on deck.

BOL this week....
 
bookieassassin said:
YES

STAY FAR AWAY - or take N TX if you must - tough to see how Army keeps pace.

If it wasn't for that struggle at WMU - NTX would be the clear play here probably - as opening DOG esp.
>> Army is down a bit - but their D improves every year (Steele p. 217) - and totally shut NTX down in Denton LY

Army is off a bye, and as a short dog (<10) has covered 12/17. NTX just might be a team to play every week (until you lose- kinda thing)- but looks like a tall order to me, off Wazzu home romp - S Alabama on deck.

BOL this week....
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Well said…was leaning NTex…and will stay away. Better situations out there than this one. Thx bubba
 
Wolfeman said:
Well said…was leaning NTex…and will stay away. Better situations out there than this one. Thx bubba
Click to expand...

I'm probably too conservative with spots like this - but if you like 'em, just wait and play live/2H (I'll do)
>> if Army can't move the ball they are gonna be in trouble - NTX D (should) be much better this year (new DC/transfers)
 
Small dumb bet just for fun....

Texas/SH 1H over 30

SH plays fast, and .....has a terrible D - especially RZ D (12/12 - 9/12 TD)

Nite game, Horns off a ridiculous performance vs UTEP - who is not a great D, but can bring pressure/disrupt things (I was impressed by their blitz packages) - was #1 in sacks/TFL before Texas. TT over 27' might be better?
 
bookieassassin said:
Small dumb bet just for fun....

Texas/SH 1H over 30

SH plays fast, and .....has a terrible D - especially RZ D (12/12 - 9/12 TD)

Nite game, Horns off a ridiculous performance vs UTEP - who is not a great D, but can bring pressure/disrupt things (I was impressed by their blitz packages) - was #1 in sacks/TFL before Texas. TT over 27' might be better?
Click to expand...

SH can barely field a 2 deep for their defense. Texas receivers should be running wide open all game, if they cant score 4 tds against SH in the FH, just end the season.
 
bookieassassin said:
Small dumb bet just for fun....

Texas/SH 1H over 30

SH plays fast, and .....has a terrible D - especially RZ D (12/12 - 9/12 TD)

Nite game, Horns off a ridiculous performance vs UTEP - who is not a great D, but can bring pressure/disrupt things (I was impressed by their blitz packages) - was #1 in sacks/TFL before Texas. TT over 27' might be better?
Click to expand...
Good idea here. Very good.

Give me a flat 27 1h tt and we're cooking with gas.
 
Thoughts on UAB +24.5 1st H? Tenn in a massive letdown/lookahead spot.....How do they show up with energy after letting Georgia get the best of them last week?
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on UAB +24.5 1st H? Tenn in a massive letdown/lookahead spot.....How do they show up with energy after letting Georgia get the best of them last week?
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Not a bad idea ....

But Vols respond well after a loss - those games typically go UNDER too - so unlike many offensive teams , they play D off a loss.

UAB has done well in this spot in the past - and wouldn't surprise me if they scored 7/10 in the 1H .... 31-7 you still cover. UAB hasn't scored in the 2H in their last 2 games..... I lean UAB/OVER 1H - Vols / UNDER 2H
 
bookieassassin said:
SMU is .....not very good
>> data wise - the nation's worst performance week 1 vs mighty East Texas State (sic) - lost to Baylor at home, allowing 600 yards- now just off a life/death struggle with Mizzou State. OL stinks, talent at WR/RB, and on D seems to be down this year. Frogs are the opposite - much improved, rested and ready to kick the Ponies ass off a 66-42 beating LY. I don't see how the line does anything but go up.

TCU -3'
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Wow, I just read this after writing my own write up on TCU. Basically verbatim, LOL. Good for me. :). Of course, by the time I wrote it up, line went to 6.5/7. Still value there IMO on the Frogs.
 
added a few - most juiced a bit, will lock in smaller at current > wait for a better deal to add

one unit

Fla +9'/10
Kansas -12'

smaller

Hawaii +3/ML
Auburn +7
-----------
Memphis +3 1Q

waiting

UTAH at 3/2'
Nebraska at 3??
Illinois at 7/7'

Fla .... played at 9' (-110) / more at -120 (Heritage)
Kansas ....-115 Heritage
Hawaii .... H
Auburn ..... LV/BO
Memphis ... dumb bet for fun - don't think the Hogs get off the bus until 2/3 Q

Utah- will lock in a better deal at 3 (-121 now at LV) - wait until kick for 2' (one unit)
Neb- if it hits 3 I'll play - if not live/2H/ small ML
Illinois- INDY love should push this to 7' juiced


>>> S Carolina - wanted to play at >14 with backup QB (famous BA 'play the team with the injured player' angle) ha - with a <100% Sellers will probably pass
 
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Nice spot to fade Rutgers next week (probably) - off this huge effort / physical game
>> at Minny, who is off a BYE / bad loss to Cal

Check status of RB Darius Taylor - (should be back) - probably held him out vs Cal to be ready here. Line 'should' be 3, but look for the spot to be baked into the line - so maybe 5/6
 
bookieassassin said:
Nice spot to fade Rutgers next week (probably) - off this huge effort / physical game
>> at Minny, who is off a BYE / bad loss to Cal

Check status of RB Darius Taylor - (should be back) - probably held him out vs Cal to be ready here. Line 'should' be 3, but look for the spot to be baked into the line - so maybe 5/6
Click to expand...
Makes sense...

Taylor so key.

Rutgers D so brutal.
 
week 5 stuff up late tonite/early Sunday - tough week to handicap

BOL today boys

Today

NEB - 3 ain't happening - will play ML, or maybe live/2H
Utah - might play a juiced 3 - WILL play live/2H if TT starts fast (probably)
LIB - probably too eager with JMU? - Flames are tough at home historically/backs to wall- might play Flames (small) ML as hedge
NIU - might get blown TF out - but 24/24' is a good deal - IMO MSU is a team BUILDING - so a let down chance is reduced
>> plus think about it - you've been bullied for a few YEARS - now YOU have a chance to bully somebody, whaddya do? - take it easy or beat the shit out of the guy?
 
adding one unit

UTAH -3

*-115 at LV/BO

posting as one unit - will play 0.75 or so at juiced 3 - add live/2H at hopefully a better number - I think TT will have the lead at some point early - Utes take over late
 
B.A.--a tested and proven CFB wizard, surrounded by mere mortals—idiots! Most of us couldn’t carry your jockstrap. You, my friend, are as consistent with winners as they come. I know you aren’t looking for praises—but it’s well deserved. Thanks again! Looking forward to following Week 5
 
Early numbers to consider for week 5:
> probably a late start for me - tough week anyway - proceed with extreme caution....


HOUSTON ...@ Beavs - off bye, Beavs off Ducks (TT road before) - 14 or so
ND/ARK OVER ...Irish D is silly bad - Irish tough on road
Duke....@ Cuse -
MINN....vs Rutgers - off bye/Rutgers off TOUGH L
TULANE ...@ Tulsa - should get great early number with Tulane
S Ala .....@ NTX?
A&M .....vs Auburn - Aggies off bye/ Auburn beat up - allowed 10 sacks / 14 TFL vs OU


Virginia.... vs FSU - FSU > Miami next
BG ....@ Ohio - BG can run
WVirg .....vs Utah
Buffalo...vs Uconn
 
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