Week 4 Write ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
First and foremost, thanks to everyone for reading. 9-5-1 last week brings my posted season total to 21-17-2.

On to the week.

1. Georgia Tech -7 @ Duke: Typically, I would not like to fade David Cutcliffe, especially off a loss, but I certainly don't want to fade Paul Johnson off a loss. Duke is generally a strong favorite, (though they failed for me last week in that role) not necessarily a good dog in recent years. On the other hand, Georgia Tech is 10-4 as road chalk in Johnson's tenure. I am typically skeptical of Georgia Tech when they don't "out athlete"their opposition, like last week against Notre Dame. However, when you combine that tricky scheme with superior athleticism, like we'll see this week, it can be a lethal combination. I think Tech bounces back big time this week as they are out to make amends for one of the few poor performances they had last year, when they outgained Duke by 100+ yards but dropped a home game to the Blue Devils thanks to 5 turnovers. -7 in this game was only -120 so I went ahead and bought it.
 
2. BYU +7 @ Michigan: Now that this line has climbed up to a TD, I have to jump on it. I passed on BYU last week, foolishly, because I thought they were due for some bad karma after a couple of charmed weeks in which they had a lot of breaks go their way. Although I really like Michigan's defense, I think BYU's offense with Tanner Mangum becoming more comfortable will have enough firepower to make this a very close game. BYU is certainly the best offense that Michigan will have faced. Jake Rudock appears good for at least a couple INTs based on how he's looked thus far. BYU is always a live dog because their Morman arrogance(which rubs a lot of people the wrong way) demands that they come into every game expecting to win. The Big House is a venue that opposing teams always get sky high for, certainly one that's circled on the BYU schedule. They will be playing for and expecting a win.
 
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3. Southern Miss +21.5 @ Nebraska: Don't look now, but Southern Miss might be on the road to recovery. 2 consecuitive weeks of 600+ yards and 50+ points, so hopefully we can get band for their buck. Todd Monken has them playing fantastically on the offensive end, and although their defense has left a bunch to be desired this year, their offense has shown that they certainly have the ability to put points on the board. Nebraska is coming off an excruciating loss at Miami last week in which they gave up 500+ yards. I think Southen Miss finds themselves in a good matchup this week against a Nebraska team that's reeling from the Miami loss.



 
don't disagree with your points...so miss does look like they have at least begun to rebound
 
They had historically been the best recruiting team in that conference until recent years. The program actually has a decent amount of tradition. Not too surprising they are finding their way again. Have a long ways to go on the defensive side of the ball, though. Corn secondary looked like dog poop against Miami and Mullens playing good ball... I can see it. Nice write up.

Also tend to agree with GT at a TD or less... I will be stupid and see if I cant get something even better .. thing has been dropping like a rock since open ... Thought Duke was actually the better team for a bulk of the game last week against NW. Turnovers and Special Teams bit them in the butt for a change.. they usually get dominated in the box score and win the game. Might join ya. good luck

Ugly RLM on the BYU game. They may be the better team and they may be immune to bad spots with all the thirty year olds playing there ... but the spot is awful. Agree it is the best offense Mich will have faced to date.

Keep em coming
 
I passed on BYU last week for the same reasons you did.

I couldn't see how they had anything left in the tank, but they played another one down to the last second. They've played the hardest schedule in the country so far and every game has gone down to the final play.

Now they go on the road again. Logic tells me again they have nothing left in the tank, but I'm starting to wonder if the same physical and mental limitations that govern teams made up of teenagers applies when the guys are all in their mid-20s.

I think your assessment of the two teams is correct and if BYU comes out like they have against every other team that +7 looks good.
 
You have to take that +7 on pure principle...but the situation sucks, obviously..

Just looking for a UM win, obviously.

Thanks for the thoughts as always...
 
clowncar said:
They had historically been the best recruiting team in that conference until recent years. The program actually has a decent amount of tradition. Not too surprising they are finding their way again. Have a long ways to go on the defensive side of the ball, though. Corn secondary looked like dog poop against Miami and Mullens playing good ball... I can see it. Nice write up.

Also tend to agree with GT at a TD or less... I will be stupid and see if I cant get something even better .. thing has been dropping like a rock since open ... Thought Duke was actually the better team for a bulk of the game last week against NW. Turnovers and Special Teams bit them in the butt for a change.. they usually get dominated in the box score and win the game. Might join ya. good luck

Ugly RLM on the BYU game. They may be the better team and they may be immune to bad spots with all the thirty year olds playing there ... but the spot is awful. Agree it is the best offense Mich will have faced to date.

Keep em coming
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Agree on Duke, although since I was holding a Duke ticket, I always find a way to convince myself that my side was the right one.

One fear I have with the BYU play is that my regrets for not playing them last week are the biggest reason I'm back on them this week. I'm sure there's some truth to that. The biggest reason I took it though was that the 7 popped up. You can still get it now. These guys just compete. Hopefully nobody took offense to my "Mormon arrogance" comment. That's meant as a compliment of athletic prowess of course.
 
mrob said:
don't disagree with your points...so miss does look like they have at least begun to rebound
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Yeah...they just needed to get some competence in the coach's chair there...that place is set up to succeed, as past results clearly tell us.
 
4. Central Michigan +27 @ Michigan State: To me, this looks a bit similar to the situation the Spartans found themselves in last week...big favorites against a pretty decent live dog. I have to admit that I wasn't high on the Chips coming into the year when HC Dan Enos bolted to take the OC job at Arkansas, but it's hard to argue with the results. They hung very tough with Oklahoma State in week 1, a team that typically mauls lightweights in a favorite's role, and then ran 91 plays to Syracuse's 41 in a game they probably should have won last week. On the stat sheets, CMU hasn't been getting clobbered by anyone, and QB Cooper Rush has been highly competent, throwing for 430 yards last week and competing well in the OK State opener. Michigan State is looking at their 3rd consecutive home game, and the Spartans are probably ready to be done with the monotony and get on with the conference season. As long as the Chips don't have a turnover fest, I really don't see where MSU will be sufficiently motivated to drop a 44-7 type game. The Chips also have a passing game strong enough to hang for a back door even if things go sideways on them.
 
5. LSU -24 @ Syracuse: This violates a lot of handicapping tenets that I like to avoid (public plays, sizable road favorites, media darlings off a great performance, etc) but LSU is going to drill these guys. Syracuse can't play offense against decent competition even on their best day, but now they are down to their 4th or 5th quarterback, and will be playing three kids they pretty much found in the intraumural buildings this week.They'll be starting a walk-on who just transferred in from the College of DuPage. I hear that he asks great questions in the QB meetings though, so he's got that going for him. As long as Leonard Fournette doesn't get bored, LSU shouldn't have any problem rolling up the rushing yards, as LSU is in a different stratosphere compared to the rushing offenses Syracuse has seen. Given the personnel issues, I would almost expect a special teams and defensive TD for the Tigers in this one, maybe several. If Syracuse scores, it will be a moral victory.
 
6. Florida International +14.5 @ Louisiana Tech: Old buddy Ron Turner has actually fashioned himself a nice little team down there at FIU, especially defensively. They've played two FBS teams on the road, including a solid offense in Indiana and rank 26th in yars per play and 20th in the country in rushing yards per carry against. Offensively, QB Alex McGough is improving and has played efficiently, and LT is ranked 115th defensively against the pass, despite one of their games being against a K State offense that really isn't even trying to throw the ball down the field. I'm a fan of LT overall, but I think this is too many points to be giving a solid defense whose offense will probably also have the edge. LT needs this game, but would anybody be shocked if Skip Holtz dropped this one outright?
 
Southern Miss investor here. No fades elsewhere, and you have interested in that Fla game.
Good Luck
 
7. @Florida +1.5 v Tennessee: Wow..where to start with this one. I'm hearing a lot of people say that if Tennessee is ever going to beat Florida, this is the year it's going to happen. Really? When Tennessee is on the road playing the game in Gainesville? How about last year, when Tennessee won a bowl game and Florida had one of the most pathetic offenses in school history and Will Muschamp driving them face first into a pile a horse manure? That game was there for them to be won, but Butch Davis refused to win it, instead playing a rope a dope game in which Tennessee never had any field position and Florida put together one decent drive to beat them. Now, a year later, Florida still has a dominant defense, but now a significantly more capable offense. Tennessee's offense is better, but certainly no juggernaut. Both of the defenses should have the better of the play, but I'm certain that Florida's defense will have a major edge, especially in the swamp. How Florida is a home dog in this game is completely befuddling to me. I know everyone wishes that Tennessee would hurry up and re-establish themselves as an elite program, but they haven't proven jack shit, certainly not near enough to be laying points on the road in this situation.
 
8. @East Carolina +10 v Virginia Tech: Anyone care to take a guess at who has the worst run defense in college football so far this year? Believe it or not, it's Virginia Tech, as the Hokies are allowing 7.7 ypc and 251 yards per game against FBS squads. ECU is not at the level they were offensively the past couple of years with Shane Carden calling he shots, and running the ball isn't exactly their forte, but they still can move the football, and they've been a great home team over the years. They're 17-3 in their last 20 games at home, and have covered 5 in a row against the ACC, in all cases in front of raucous crowds. VT on the other hand has been an awful road favorite lately (1-7 the past 3 years). ECU typically finds a way to stay in these games, and we've seen ECU win games like this and VT lose games like this too many times in recent years for me to not be taking double digit points with the Pirates at home.
 
9. @Washington +3 v Cal: Hey, I'm like everyone else...I like Sonny Dykes and I think it's cool that Cal has a slick offense, but that defense is still atrocious, especially on the road. I think Cal proved last week that they are not ready to be a road favorite, as a previously impotent Texas offense completely carved them up for 650 yards and 11.7 per pass attempt(!!). I realize that Jerod Heard was an improvement over Swoopes, but come on...650 yards to a team that hadn't cracked 300 previously is an abomination. Washington comes in with their own issues, as they were just about starting over under Chris Peterson, but they've gained some traction, losing only by 3 at Boise despite playing terrible, and then coming back and winning back to back games. Last week, true freshman Jake Browining broke out with a very nice 22/31 368 3 TD performance against an extremely competent Utah State defense. He'll see a much weaker defense this week in the Bears, and Washington ranks 10th in the country in total defense so far this year, so this will be the toughest test for the Cal offense. Also remember that Cal is 4-14 in their last 18 as road chalk, and that Washington has covered 7 of 9 in this series, including last year, where Peterson hammered Dykes 31-7 as a 3.5 road dog. I'm getting 3 points here? Ok.
 
10. Missouri +3 @ Kentucky: Since joining the SEC, Missouri is 10-2 ATS on the road, and they are currently on a 10 game straight up road winning streak, with 5 of those coming as an underdog.Kentucky, on the other hand is 5-16-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games, and they've only been a home favorite once, failing to cover as a 17 point favorite against vandy last year. Missouri has had all kinds of trouble on offense this year, as Maty Mauk is going through his usual early season doldrums, but they get their top running threat Russell Hansbrough back this week, so they'll likely get a bit more comfortable. Also, as bad as their offense has been, their defense continues to roll, leading all of college football in tackles for loss and holding opponents to less than 3.31 yards per play(#2 in the country). Now that Mizzou is back in it's comfort zone, I think they'll settle in offensively and at least approach competence. If they do that, their defense will likely do the rest against a Kentucky team that usually finds a way to disappoint the Wildcat faithful. With the sterling record Mizzou has in this spot, I'll certainly gobble up the points.
 
11. @Houston -16.5 v Texas State: So far this year in 2 games against FBS schools, Texas State has given up 1,249 yards and 115 points. Who have they played? Southern Miss, who is obviously improved but not considered a current juggernaut, and Florida State, who looked completely lost in their other two games so far this year on offense. I am a big believer in Houston this year under new head coach Tom Herman. They are coming off a bye after dropping 462 yards on a Louisville D in Papa Johns Stadium that many considered to be among the nation's best coming into the year. Houston will likely be able to score every time they have the ball if they feel like it. Texas State is pretty good themselves on offense, so there is some danger of a backdoor, but if Houston scores what the other two FBS squads have put up, The Bobcats will need to
 
12. Ball State +18.5 v Northwestern: A lot of the public is on this dog, but it's too many points to pass up with two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum in these roles. First of all, when you line up the stats between these two so far this year, I actually give Ball State an overall edge in quite a few areas. I think the Cardinals have a chance to run on the Cats, and I think Northwestern is going to struggle to score...well they are going to struggle to score against almost everyone as they are ranked 122nd in the country in yards per play and 122nd in passer rating. Under Pete Lembo, Ball State is 12-5 as a road dog while, believe it or not, if you take away the 11-1 ATS aberration the Cats enjoyed in 2012(including 5-0 as a home favorite), Fitzgerald is 5-22 ATS as a home favorite. Yes, 5-22!!!! This game is about as huge a disparity as you will find in ATS performance, given these roles. The Cats are coming off a very nice win at Duke last week, but they were outgained and dominated for most of the game, so they are due for some evening out. If they manage to cover this big spread despite all of this evidence against it, you might just want to hitch your wagon to Fitzy and co for the rest of the year because they might be on the verge of a repeat of 2012.
 
13 @Arizona +2.5 v UCLA: RichRod has gotten his ass kicked by Jim Mora the past couple of years, but I think it's set up for a little payback this week. Based on the stats so far this year, these teams are pretty evenly matched. UCLA has played the tougher schedule, so I'd give them the edge on paper, but a lot of intangibles come into play in this one. First, UCLA QB Josh Rosen looked awful in his first real test against a competent defense, and this will be his first road game on a hostile campus environment. (UNLV doesn't count). Also, although UCLA's defense has been pretty good, they've lost a huge contributor at each level of the defense over the past couple of weeks, and now they are without their best player, LB Myles Jack. He is the key to everything they do on defense, and lo and behold, Scooby Wright, Arizona's version of Mack (and that's probably an insult to Wright, who got Heisman votes last year) returns this week from injury. I think Jack's absence is going to allow AZ's running game to get going and I think Josh Rosen will probably have a couple donatuions to the Arizona secondary at some point. I like the Wildcats to win this one.
 
Brass - Like your card this week and probably the only one I disagree with is ECU. Great writeups as always. BOL.
 
I can't see ball scoring more than 14, but nw can't get 30 against a jv team.

Really looking forward to that Washington game. Should be interesting how cal does on road b2b in two tough environments
 
14. Vanderbilt +27 @ Ole Miss: Now that this game has gone to +27, I have to add it. Over the past 10 years, the line on this game has never been more than 17.5, and has been a double digit spread only 3 times. Most of the time, the line is between 1 and 3. Obviously, this year things are different because Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country and they are coming off a win in Tuscaloosa, but this line is inflated. Vandy is certainly much better than they were last year, as they outgained Western Kentucky by 147 yards and held their explosive offense to only 246 total yards in week 1, then were outgained by only 22 yards the following week by Georgia. After watching what Georgia did to South Carolina last week, that game looks even more impressive. Ole Miss can't possibly give a top notch effort after last week's 4 1/2 hour marathon with Bama, and they have a trip to Gainesville on deck. I think Vandy's defense will keep them competitive in this one, and their offense (400+ yards against Georgia) is good enough to have back door potential if necessary.
 
HUNT said:
I can't see ball scoring more than 14, but nw can't get 30 against a jv team.

Really looking forward to that Washington game. Should be interesting how cal does on road b2b in two tough environments
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Yep...agree. Line in the Ca/UW game is dropping. Down to 2 last I saw, but I think the wrong team is favored there. Thanks Hunt.
 
Really like the GT play.. Years past I'd be heavy on duke but I just don't see it this year.. Too many ??s on both sides of the ball and GT is gonna try to make this a statement game. Don't see Paul Johnson letting this squad keep this close.
 
Really like your selections and on most of them. Wishing you a sweep! Ok, it's really for me because if you sweep, I sweep :-)
 
clowncar said:
A third week of great defense and we just have to say vandy has a good D. gl
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I think so. After what Lambert did to the Gamecocks, you have to respect that they really confused him early. Same with Doughty. McCrary is at least capable of moving the ball..I think Vandy makes for a decent spread play as long as they keep getting 21+
 
Forty oz b said:
Really like the GT play.. Years past I'd be heavy on duke but I just don't see it this year.. Too many ??s on both sides of the ball and GT is gonna try to make this a statement game. Don't see Paul Johnson letting this squad keep this close.
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I just think this is a good spot for Tech and when they out-athlete the other team, it's almost impossible to stop them if they execute. Offensively, Duke not as good as last year on the offensive side.
 
twinkie13 said:
Great as usual Br@ss.....not much to add, you do it so nicely.

I hope my Tigers get the cash for you!!

GL!
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Twink, thanks as always. I think if they are even half awake, this should be an easy stroll for them.

In fact, if LSU only played defense and had to either punt or kick a FG on their first offensive play of each series, I still think they might cover. They'll probably get enough ST big plays and turnovers against this crippled offense that they won't even need to gain a yard.
 
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