Week 4 NCAAF Discussion

[nbafan88]

Pretty sure there isn't a discussion thread already.




@SportsInsights: More MAC facts: Ball State is the best team covering the spread as a road dog, going 34-13 ATS since '05. Ball State currently +18.5 at NW.

 

[ksimpsc]

meant to play it last night and my line is down currently

 

[wiseplayer]

Ball State is also one of them public dogs.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Interested to see the NIU / BC total. We've seen what BC's defense can do, and they lost Darius Wade at QB and are now stuck with a true freshman who, if you watched the end of the FSU game, cannot throw. So BC will likely spend a lot of time on the ground this weekend. Just don't see how many points are going to be scored in this game.

 

[Noles4life]

zona home dogs in night game vs UCLA... this game being so early in the season should benefit zona... not sure of there D but no doubt Rosen is a stud but he is a true freshman and has shown he will make some mistakes.... he will get better as season goes on but this is a big task for him to win conference game on road think ucla may be a tad overrated or maybe there just young but i think zona is live dog here

 

[Alan Tongue]

Pretty sure there isn't a discussion thread already.




@SportsInsights: More MAC facts: Ball State is the best team covering the spread as a road dog, going 34-13 ATS since '05. Ball State currently +18.5 at NW.

NW might score 24 and cover

 

[xyzky]

zona home dogs in night game vs UCLA... this game being so early in the season should benefit zona... not sure of there D but no doubt Rosen is a stud but he is a true freshman and has shown he will make some mistakes.... he will get better as season goes on but this is a big task for him to win conference game on road think ucla may be a tad overrated or maybe there just young but i think zona is live dog here

Agree, Zona straight up win

 

[Alan Tongue]

zona home dogs in night game vs UCLA... this game being so early in the season should benefit zona... not sure of there D but no doubt Rosen is a stud but he is a true freshman and has shown he will make some mistakes.... he will get better as season goes on but this is a big task for him to win conference game on road think ucla may be a tad overrated or maybe there just young but i think zona is live dog here

Parker is a beast at RB for UCLA

 

[sportjunky]

View attachment 39521

 

[gsro]

what do you guys think of Ole Miss after that big win against Roll Tide...flat spot or they continue to take care of business

 

[nbafan88]

Can you guys post any look ahead spots or flat spots you find on the card. I really think there should be a weekly thread dedicated to situational spots

 

[twinkie13]

Ok is Syracuse down to their 4th string QB?

Does LSU show up?

I get the feeling this is a team that doesn't take weeks off for some reason, but 24 is a ton

 

[ksimpsc]

ND has clemson on the road next week

 

[gsro]

Ok is Syracuse down to their 4th string QB?

Does LSU show up?

I get the feeling this is a team that doesn't take weeks off for some reason, but 24 is a ton

Syracuse, N.Y. — Syracuse freshman quarterback Eric Dungey is unlikely to play against No. 8 LSU on Saturday, SU head coach Scott Shafer said in hisweekly Cuse.com interview.
Dungey was listed as having an upper-body injury after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit in the second quarter of the Orange's 30-27 overtime win against Central Michigan.
Redshirt sophomore Austin Wilson and sophomore walk-on Zack Mahoney platooned in Dungey's absence and are the likely options to replace him against the Tigers. Sophomore AJ Long is not throwing the ball well enough as he works his way back from a broken bone in his hand.

 

[ksimpsc]

that hit on Dungey was nasty. Got bent backwards helmet to helmet above while having a guy on his ankles. Upper body injury doesn't surprise me

 

[ksimpsc]

you could say the BYU game is a let down spot potentially with how they played against UCLA and nearly won a third game in a row

 

[M.O.T]

I've seen a few people on Syracuse and 3+ TDs is a lot, but how do they move the ball and score given the circumstances? I haven't seen much of them and that may be the homer in me speaking, but it seems like under may be the play if you think LSU will be flat or if Syracuse can slow down the running game.

LSU will likely stick to the run and the quick passing game early and not take many chances. But they will have matchup advantages outside if they're feeling good about the flow of the game and have good field position.

 

[sportjunky]

UCLA's starting CB fabian moreua is out for the season.

and it sounds like Ish adams should be back for arizona.

 

[ksimpsc]

I've seen a few people on Syracuse and 3+ TDs is a lot, but how do they move the ball and score given the circumstances? I haven't seen much of them and that may be the homer in me speaking, but it seems like under may be the play if you think LSU will be flat or if Syracuse can slow down the running game.

LSU will likely stick to the run and the quick passing game early and not take many chances. But they will have matchup advantages outside if they're feeling good about the flow of the game and have good field position.

watched the Syracuse/UCM game. The starter QB for Syracuse is still going to be out for the game. The back up came in end of the 1st half and threw a butter dime TD and then they did not do a whole lot after that. I was thinking Dungey was coming back from concussion but not sure now. Unless, like you said, LSU comes out flat. LSU is in the easy part of their schedule though. Syr, EMU, Gamecocks are their next 3

 

[Judge Smails]

<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(41, 47, 51); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">John Zenor @jzenor
</header>Malzahn: Auburn will start Sean White at quarterback against Mississippi State

 

[Judge Smails]

<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(41, 47, 51); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">GoGamecocks.com @gogamecocks
</header>Lorenzo Nunez to start at QB for Gamecocks

 

[Judge Smails]

<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(41, 47, 51); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">Joey Kaufman @joeyrkaufman
</header>UCLA senior CB Fabian Moreau will miss the rest of the season with a lisfranc injury, Jim Mora said.


<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(41, 47, 51); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">Joey Kaufman @joeyrkaufman
</header>Jim Mora says Ishmael Adams has been reinstated.

 

[Judge Smails]

mike carmin
@carminjc


David Blough will be the starting QB vs Bowling Green
<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(102, 117, 127); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">
</header><header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(102, 117, 127); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">
</header>

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

I've seen a few people on Syracuse and 3+ TDs is a lot, but how do they move the ball and score given the circumstances? I haven't seen much of them and that may be the homer in me speaking, but it seems like under may be the play if you think LSU will be flat or if Syracuse can slow down the running game.

LSU will likely stick to the run and the quick passing game early and not take many chances. But they will have matchup advantages outside if they're feeling good about the flow of the game and have good field position.

I agree completely though I did take SYR +24 knowing Dungey was "?". Not happy that he's out, but he wasn't any more experienced than the back ups when it comes down to it -- though the coaches opinion high enough to make him the solid 2nd on the depth chart counts for something, of course. Even though SYR is outmatched on all facets when they put their offense on the field, it's not horrifically so, according to my numbers. I concede that the problem with relying on numbers in this kind of match up is that the variance for SYR's offense will tend to only be in one direction if it strays far from the norm, and that is downward.

I do love the Under here and wish they'd post a number already, lol. Both teams love to run the ball and neither plays up tempo.

 

[Judge Smails]

<header class="tweet-header" style="color: rgb(41, 47, 51); font-family: Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.4294px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">CBS Sports CFB @CBSSportsCFB
</header>UCF has dismissed All-AAC RB William Stanback from the team

 

[ksimpsc]

yea good call Cruncher. I was waiting to see that total as well. I have not seen line or total up yet this week for that game at my book.

 

[gps_3]

what do you guys think of Ole Miss after that big win against Roll Tide...flat spot or they continue to take care of business

I faded them in this spot last year and it bit me in the ass 2 weeks in a row. But, their defense did play 102 snaps late Saturday night, Conner is out, and may be overlooking Vandy, who I think is much better than last year.

 

[Judge Smails]

From the Forde Yard Dash:

LOOK WEST THIS WEEK
It’s a pretty pedestrian week of games nationally, with the exception being the Pac-12. That’s where the action is. The Dash offers a micro-preview:


UCLA at Arizona (29). Biggest game in the nation, matching unbeaten and ranked teams that have represented the Pac-12 South in two of the past three league championship games. Bruins were The Dash’s pick to win the league and they’ve backed it up so far, but they were challenged significantly last week by BYU before pulling out a one-point victory. Arizona, meanwhile, comes in presumably pretty fresh but also completely untested – the Wildcats are one of 12 Power 5 schools that have yet to play another Power 5 school. This could be the game where Arizona misses injured All-America linebacker Scooby Wright – although the Wildcats are holding out hope he returns to face the Bruins. Dash pick: UCLA 35, Arizona 31.


Utah at Oregon (30). Utes are unbeaten and looking for what might be their biggest Pac-12 win to date. Yes, they upset No. 5 Stanford in 2013 – but they were 0-2 in the league at the time. Yes, they upset No. 8 UCLA last year – but that was a week after a dismal home loss to Washington State. This time around, nothing has derailed the optimism yet. But it remains to be seen whether the Ute offense can match firepower with Oregon, especially at Autzen Stadium. Dash pick: Oregon 37, Utah 28.


California at Washington (31). The Golden Bears are 3-0 and looking like one of the potential breakthrough teams of 2015. (Speaking of underpaid: Sonny Dykes may be in line for a contract extension in Berkeley.) But they haven’t won their Pac-12 opener since 2011, haven’t beaten Washington since 2008 and haven’t won in Seattle since 2005. This feels like time for a reversal of that recent history. Dash pick: Cal 41, Washington 38.


USC at Arizona State (32). Last time the Trojans went to Tempe, they returned home without a coach – Pat Haden fired Lane Kiffin on the tarmac in Los Angeles. Sarkisian shouldn’t be in that degree of jeopardy, but given the pratfall at home against Stanford, it would definitely rally the base if USC won. Don’t see that happening, as the Trojans’ three-game streak of not committing a turnover comes to an end. Dash pick: Arizona State 37, USC 33.


Stanford at Oregon State (33). Friday night road game is a tough turnaround from the big road win at USC on Saturday. But the Beavers are limited offensively, and the Cardinal can overcome early sluggishness to score enough. Dash pick: Stanford 22, Oregon State 14.


MATCH MADE IN DUMPSTER FIRE HEAVEN
If your idea of fun is watching trains collide, feast your eyes upon Rutgers-Kansas (34) on Saturday. The Scarlet Knights (1-2) are a complete mess – their coach and best player are suspended, they dismissed six players from the team earlier this month, and they’re coming off consecutive losses. And yet they’re favored by two touchdowns over the inept Jayhawks. Wow.
Kansas couldn’t win at home against South Dakota State or Memphis, so now it takes its rickety show on the road – a place where the Jayhawks have lost 30 consecutive times. David Beaty, the fifth Kansas coach since 2009 (if you include 2014 interim Cliff Bowen) walked straight into quicksand taking this job. The only humane thing the school can do is give him a minimum of five years to dig out, because Year 1 stands a solid chance of ending 0-12.
Dash pick: Rutgers 2, Kansas 0.

UNBEATENS ON UPSET ALERT
Thirty-four unbeaten teams remain. That number figures to be significantly reduced after this weekend. Here are two teams that had better be ready on the road:


TCU (35) at Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs’ promising season has been severely threatened by a plague of defensive injuries – five starters have been lost for the season, and another player hasn’t seen action this year because of a head injury. Then came the news Monday that defensive end Mike Tuaua is facing a felony charge of robbery and bodily injury after he and a teammate allegedly assaulted a TCU student and stole a case of Keystone Light. (The Dash does not condone violence, especially in pursuit of cut-rate macro beer.) The alleged incident occurred Sept. 4, and Tuaua has not played in the Frogs’ past two games. And then there is the possibility that Texas Tech (3-0) is pretty good. Dash pick: Texas Tech 45, TCU 41.


North Carolina State (36) at South Alabama. This is the second of the Wolfpack’s back-to-back, what-are-we-doing-here games. Last week it was a visit to Old Dominion (State won 38-14) and this week it’s a trip to Mobile. The Jaguars (2-1) are riding some momentum after an upset win at San Diego State, and will hope for their best home atmosphere since the program launched in 2010. But it still won’t be enough. Dash pick: N.C. State 30, South Alabama 21.

 

[Judge Smails]

Steve Luhm
@sluhm


Breaking: Utah State coach Matt Wells says QB Chuckie Keeton is out 4-6 weeks with a sprained knee.

 

[gsro]

I faded them in this spot last year and it bit me in the ass 2 weeks in a row. But, their defense did play 102 snaps late Saturday night, Conner is out, and may be overlooking Vandy, who I think is much better than last year.

thanks for input, I'm wondering if Hugh has them dialed in... and that team is hungry, pretty good year for them to take reigns with some favs that are under performing.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Interested to see the NIU / BC total. We've seen what BC's defense can do, and they lost Darius Wade at QB and are now stuck with a true freshman who, if you watched the end of the FSU game, cannot throw. So BC will likely spend a lot of time on the ground this weekend. Just don't see how many points are going to be scored in this game.

Bumping for any feedback....Total looks to be at 47. BC giving up <6 ppg and can't see how they're going to open up much offensively given their QB issues..

 

[CollegeKingRex]

NW might score 24 and cover

Ball State has a new quarterback, freshman kid named Neal, who came in at EMU and they basically had no answer for him. I realize EMU is no Northwestern but he also had his moments at Ayyunem and almost led CPL in the backdoor down there. By all accounts, this guy is the stone nuts and gonna be a stud. Ball State's offense with him running it is certainly a better passing team than anyone Northwestern has seen since probably the season opener vs. Cal last year.

 

[OnFireSports]

Anyone get a chance to check out Boise's two QBs they will be going with Friday? The coach said he's playing both guys. One is Mark Rypien's nephew. Their numbers looked good against a weak Idaho state team, but I don't want to read to much into them.

Here are the "big" week 5 games:
ND @ Clemson
WVU @ Oklahoma
Alabama @ Georgia
Baylor @ Tx Tech (first real game for Baylor)
Ole Miss @ Florida
AZ @ Stanford
AZ State @ UCLA

 

[Alan Tongue]

Hogan game time decision for Stanford (ankle)

 

[sportjunky]

myles jack out for the season. FML.

 

[dudleysdad]

Can someone explain to me how johnson won the starting qb job at auburn? The kid is one of the worst passing qbs I have ever seen. This Sean white is supposed to be a stud. Just can't figure out how u trot out Johnson if white Can play..

 

[emkee]

Ok is Syracuse down to their 4th string QB?

Does LSU show up?

I get the feeling this is a team that doesn't take weeks off for some reason, but 24 is a ton

They took the entire 4th quarter off against Messy State a couple of weeks ago.

Les gonna Les.

 

[Alan Tongue]

Fresno State @ San Jose State

Fresno State QB Virgil broke his collar-bone last week (1st start). Greenlee started the first 2 games, but was arrested last Saturday night. Anybody know what his suspension is - a quarter? half? game? Childress is 3rd string and likely starter if Greenlee is suspended, played in 2 games for West Virginia in 2013

San Jose State finally started Potter last week, but got injured in the second quarter. Gray was the previous starter and he threw a pick 6 when Potter went down. He was eventually benched for the 3rd stringer Watson.


If Greenlee is suspended and Potter plays the the minus 4.5 looks good. If Potter is out best left alone

 

[gsro]

Can someone explain to me how johnson won the starting qb job at auburn? The kid is one of the worst passing qbs I have ever seen. This Sean white is supposed to be a stud. Just can't figure out how u trot out Johnson if white Can play..

probably thought he was another $cam

 

[gps_3]

Can someone explain to me how johnson won the starting qb job at auburn? The kid is one of the worst passing qbs I have ever seen. This Sean white is supposed to be a stud. Just can't figure out how u trot out Johnson if white Can play..

Gus' history of developing QBs is pretty poor. Cam was ready-made, and Marshall was pretty much an ideal read-option QB. I think Johnson was just a QB with a skill set that didn't match what Gus wanted him to do. And I'm sure the unrealistic expectations placed on him didn't help, and most of that was Gus' fault.

 

[ram1502]

Gus' history of developing QBs is pretty poor. Cam was ready-made, and Marshall was pretty much an ideal read-option QB. I think Johnson was just a QB with a skill set that didn't match what Gus wanted him to do. And I'm sure the unrealistic expectations placed on him didn't help, and most of that was Gus' fault.

While I dont totally disagree with you about Gus' fault in the situation, Johnson ran a very similar offense to Gus' in high school (maybe a LITTLE more pass oriented) and flourished. After his experience in high school, and taking snaps last season (including one start when Marshall got busted with microscopic amounts of marijuana), Johnson seemed to be poised to take over the helm without a hitch. But, from what I'm reading, Johnson has just completely lost his confidence and said after the LSU game: "...I wouldn't blame the coaches if they benched me at this point..." Athleticism and sheer talent can make up for alot of holes/inconsistencies in a player's game, especially at the college level, but confidence (or lack thereof) is not one of those easily revocated areas unfortunately.

Re: Sean White....kid is a stud and will undoubtedly instantly improve the passing game from an accuracy standpoint. He's not as mobile or quick as Johnson (he hasn't shown near enough of this if you ask me), but White has a good head on his shoulders and the kid can sling it. FWIW, I think auburn gets it done this weekend in a close game. The cowbellers always play AU tough.

 

[JuanB4AU]

Gus' history of developing QBs is pretty poor. Cam was ready-made, and Marshall was pretty much an ideal read-option QB. I think Johnson was just a QB with a skill set that didn't match what Gus wanted him to do. And I'm sure the unrealistic expectations placed on him didn't help, and most of that was Gus' fault.

You can't forget about Chris Todd, the work Gus did Chris Todd (as an OC) was very solid. I am not saying Gus is The QB GURU as far as development however I do think the JJ issue is a personnel swing and a miss, nothing more. Lucky for us we have the next sample coming up this weekend. TBD

 

[gps_3]

You can't forget about Chris Todd, the work Gus did Chris Todd (as an OC) was very solid. I am not saying Gus is The QB GURU as far as development however I do think the JJ issue is a personnel swing and a miss, nothing more. Lucky for us we have the next sample coming up this weekend. TBD

Chris Todd was a JUCO, originally signed with Texas Tech, right?

White may be the answer, but he hasn't taken a snap in a college game, so I'm not putting my money on AU this weekend, but doubt I can bet on Miss St either. I lined this as a PK, so my only interest will be in the total if anything

 

[twinkie13]

good to see some Aubbie blood on the board