Week 4 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
What would the records be if you said "as a home fav coming off a road upset win"?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Last road dog wins:
2018 won at USF +7 24-17, came back home -11.5 vs ECU won 24-18
This is the next one, but doesn't qualify as they were dogged in the following home game
2017 won at ECU +5.5 31-24 OT, came back home +9.5 vs Houston won 20-17
Southern Miss HC Will Hall was Tulane OC 2018-20.
I feel like Southern Miss has never got the QB play they need and it makes me hesitant here.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I might take a stab at Monmouth at Villanova they are in the +7/7.5 area so probably something like +200/250 ML went it gets released.
I've been involved with Villanova off and on, even thought they could be in the game vs Army last week. Their QB threw 2 1H INTs that were costly when the came was still competitive (trailed 7-14 before the two INTs, then Army went up 7-21 and then Army just blew them away in the 2H. Villanova was pretty disappointing the week prior at Long Island (won by 17 laying 32), and they threw 4 INTs in that one. New starting QB this year and throwing picks has been a problem. I think the Villanova D is vulnerable. They have not played a good offense yet in their FCS games - Lehigh and Long Island are generally bad offensive teams.
Monmouth has had some good recent history with winning teams and playoff appearances, although they missed the playoffs last year. As with Villanova, defense is a concern for Monmouth, if you saw anything related to the Fordham game. The difference is Monmouth has played some good/better offensive teams in New Hampshire and Fordham. Monmouth has the O to challenge Nova though. They returned their QB and RBs, but lost all the top receivers and OL from last year so they struggled a little out of the gate, but it appears they have found themselves the last 2 weeks.
This is Monmouth's first CAA game after they moved up and while Villanova is 2-0 vs FCS, but their schedule is soft. I think Monmouth will be in this game and if the turnovers come from Nova, then they can win.
I've been involved with Villanova off and on, even thought they could be in the game vs Army last week. Their QB threw 2 1H INTs that were costly when the came was still competitive (trailed 7-14 before the two INTs, then Army went up 7-21 and then Army just blew them away in the 2H. Villanova was pretty disappointing the week prior at Long Island (won by 17 laying 32), and they threw 4 INTs in that one. New starting QB this year and throwing picks has been a problem. I think the Villanova D is vulnerable. They have not played a good offense yet in their FCS games - Lehigh and Long Island are generally bad offensive teams.
Monmouth has had some good recent history with winning teams and playoff appearances, although they missed the playoffs last year. As with Villanova, defense is a concern for Monmouth, if you saw anything related to the Fordham game. The difference is Monmouth has played some good/better offensive teams in New Hampshire and Fordham. Monmouth has the O to challenge Nova though. They returned their QB and RBs, but lost all the top receivers and OL from last year so they struggled a little out of the gate, but it appears they have found themselves the last 2 weeks.
This is Monmouth's first CAA game after they moved up and while Villanova is 2-0 vs FCS, but their schedule is soft. I think Monmouth will be in this game and if the turnovers come from Nova, then they can win.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I had also forgotten, the Arizona - Cal game is a rematch from Zona's only win last year. If you remember Cal was riddled with covid players that had to sit out and there was question if they'd even play. I'd have to look back but it was a very large number of players and starters who missed last year. I think there is some hard feelings in the Cal side. Normally off a tough loss at a place like South Bend a team like Cal might be flat early. I don't think so here. Other than perhaps ASU, there won't be a more fired up team to face Zona this year.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Good question…can’t look until tonight but will post it when I can…
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Southern Miss is usually way better…kinda down times for them just going from memory
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Kansas?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
How far back would we have to go to find ku coming off a win and then being favs? Lol. Long time id guess!
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Was more referring to who the question was about. But to answer, probably the Mangino days.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I kick myself every week not playing him but they so damn balanced now i worry we gonna see a week where him and Tucker score all the tds on the ground. Tucker is really due for a monster game and think uva could be the team he gets it against. Richmond and Illinios both gashed uva on the ground.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
1-0 SU & 0-1 ATS....looks like it's only happened once so that rules out several hot 1st half home starts for the Green Wave. I don't know the 1st half line for that game below but normally an 11pt line would have a 6 or 6.5 1st half line so safe to say 1st half ATS would have been a loser as well. Considering how USM played 1st half at Miami I'm willing to roll the dice 1st half ML with them....they're one of the 1st dogs I looked at earlier this week.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Damn. I thought for sure it woulda been a decade +, lol
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
but it's also only happened 3 times in SDQL history for the Jayhawks....so there's that!
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
State of Louisiana gonna be a night for the dogs!
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
That Boise program has regressed a little more each of the last few years. I didn't see them losing to UTEP though.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
And crazy all 17 point margins! Boise is about as good as a lower rung MWC and CUSA team now!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I probably been the biggest boise detractor around the last 2 years and I didht even bother w that game, how could ya possibly have any trust in utep?
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
you don't....you simply have trust in the "Friday Night Home Conference Dog" phenomenon....
opcorn:
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
@CPA-hole might like this one....I'm with ya man...crazy shit might be happening in Boulder, CO this afternoon.
Adding another 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR:
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 1st Half +300
Colorado Buffaloes +1000
Texas Tech Red Raiders +216
Rice Owls +630
Arkansas Razorbacks +104
Utah State Aggies +129
Oregon State Beavers +185
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $46,430.97
BOLTA!
:watchingsports:
Adding another 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR:
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 1st Half +300
Colorado Buffaloes +1000
Texas Tech Red Raiders +216
Rice Owls +630
Arkansas Razorbacks +104
Utah State Aggies +129
Oregon State Beavers +185
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $46,430.97
BOLTA!
:watchingsports:
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
@CPA-hole might like this one....I'm with ya man...crazy shit might be happening in Boulder, CO this afternoon.
Adding another 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR:
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 1st Half +300
Colorado Buffaloes +1000
Texas Tech Red Raiders +216
Rice Owls +630
Arkansas Razorbacks +104
Utah State Aggies +129
Oregon State Beavers +185
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $46,430.97
BOLTA!
:watchingsports:
I threw a few bucks on CU ML or "I won't respect myself in the morning."
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
you don't....you simply have trust in the "Friday Night Home Conference Dog" phenomenon....
UTEP isn't in the same conference as Boise
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
ugh....my bad.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I win games for reasons I never expected. And I lose games against reasons I thought were so strong.
Maybe Boise will be relegated to Conference USA
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Speaking of conf USA, can rice do it again? Houston a shell of its former self. Take away dell and they don’t have much of a answer without McCormick.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Rice will need help from the Houston B game, not the Houston A game. I don't think Rice D is good enough in itself to slow the Cougs.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
They're worth some spare change today for sure.....jmho.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
It kinda like betting same number on roulette wheel after it hits, crazy how often that little ball finds its way back to the same number a 2nd time! Lol
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
but you said it yourself earlier in the week that the Cougs could be in a downward spiral...still feel the same way or??
opcorn:
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
but you said it yourself earlier in the week that the Cougs could be in a downward spiral...still feel the same way or??
I haven't tried to substantiate that with anything. Sometimes you really don't know these types of things until the game starts. But I suspect they could be based off of how this season has gone...Crazy/draining OT win vs UTSA...Crazy/draining OT loss vs Texas Tech...embarrassing home loss to Kansas. Holgerson is their coach, so I never doubt they can come out and lay an egg.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I feel like that happens more often these days than it used to. Dunno if it just my goofy perception or if true, lol. Or I just happen to notice the ones who do it.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
There was not anything fluky last week with Rice's win. If there was anything fluky, it was that ULL was actually leading at HT when Rice had throughly dominated them. Rice is just... they aren't going to out athlete anyone or they aren't going to have some kind of hard to defend scheme. It's Rice. They can out execute you as about the only thing they can be better at.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I would like Mizzou also, but I have a hard time getting over their Kansas State game. You?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Very. I dunno how many times this week I’ve thought tank would just run over them and I dunno how they score points! On the plus side auburn run game doesn’t have the explosive home run potential Vaughn does.
That total makes no fucjing sense to me, years past I would ignore this feeling and bet the under then I’d look up and somehow there be 40 points on the board before halftime! How it happens I’m not sure? Punt returns maybe? They finally put their big time recruit who came out of high school as a great punt returner back there last week, he had more return yardage last week than tigers did as a team last year! Drinkawitz says shit like he doesn’t know who his best 5 o-line are!
I seriously have no clue what mizzou even trying to be! It makes them really hard to figure. I just have a really bad feeling about this total which makes me think mizzou has a much better shot if it not just tank grinding out 5 yards at a time on the ground. It crazy this total has stayed above 51 all week or even opened there.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
There should've been more points in the Miz-KSt game based on all the turnovers and short fields K St benefitted from, but their O couldn't take advantage. And I don't view Auburn as any better should they find themselves in similar circumstances.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Aubbie is desperate...only SEC game on their schedule this season that they can win is today...personally I'm not fading them.
I don’t think it matters, their coach a dead man walking and change is coming
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Ouch...not good ju-ju for Florida ML backers...Josh Heupel coached teams are 23-1 SU as a home favorite...only loss was at home to Tulsa when UCF was in the midst of 4 losses in a row...not sure what was happening during that time but Tennessee is hardly playing that bad. Good luck in what you decide...
