Week 4 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Late getting started this week.....

These first few weeks we are seeing quite a few BIG Dogs take big bite

What stands out to you guys this week

GameDay being in Knoxville, I would consider playing the Gaytors

I am about to run thru the list of games tonight and see if any stand out.

@s--k had a keen eye for Rice last week
@CPA-hole just continues to find winners going 3-0 last week w/
Wyoming +430
Rice +325
Tulane +500

Everyone feel free to drop a line in the thread if anything stands out , Let's keep finding a few teams to cash a few tickets and in @JROCK1966 case a few teams to put in his Round Robins Parlays

Again thanks to all of you guys that contributing to the thread, jump in anytime and if you haven't been playing in the UnderDog Contest, it's never too late to make picks and if you don't take part in the contest, check it out, you will find some winners there as well, We have a good race going in that contest
 
I won't be around much this week :(

I know I will have Wake Forest. Did anyone watch the LaTech game? Clemson...man. This is on the heels of the Furman game where Clemson was also not good. How many good quarters of football has Clemson played this year...2, 1, none? Sure the D is good, doesn't mean they won't allow yards and points all the time. I would bet Wake Forest in this game if they were favored. So much confidence, it is bound to lose I'm sure.

James Madison can beat App State.

Arkansas State was pretty damn close last week, they can get it done this week at ODU.

I'm tempted on Wyoming

Oregon State has shocked USC before.

Washington State can win if their D can produce some turnovers and avoid giving it away. Wazzou D might be better than their O. I think Cam Ward is coming around as the season wears on. He is a true sophomore and playing FBS teams for the first time.

So funny, I've ML'd against Cal the first two weeks and ML'd the Bears last week. Cal is favored, suppose it is time to ML Zona!

I'm not sure I will say Stanford can win, but the UW D weakness I believe is their secondary and Stanford is suited to exploit that. Stanford always plays UW tough (multiple upsets and a couple DD dog upsets).

As good as South Alabama has been, call me crazy, but would it really be that much of a surprise if La Tech beat them?

Recently a bad matchup for Texas Tech...but maybe?

Houston could be in a spiral, if so Rice could go back-to-back.

I don't really understand the Southern Miss QBs and who they are and stuff, but feel like this would be a good time to fade Tulane.

Florida Atlantic is a strange case, not sure how they lose at Ohio. I don't know...Purdue is still just a mid-pack Big Ten team right? 3 TD favorite vs FAU seems like a lot. Purdue likely pretty disappointed at starting 1-2 with a lot of expectations entering this year.

Fordham at Ohio could be interesting (early line is 18.5)
 
1st pass thru....looking like the lines have tightened up considerably. Found a few gems tho...

James Madison
Southern Miss 1st Half…possibly FG
Rutgers
Buffalo
Wisky 1st Half
Texas Tech
My data is showing N. Texas but their defense is sooo bad not sure even I can do it.

:popcorn:
 
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Colorado doesn't have a pulse but does anyone want to lay 21.5 with UCLA? ML is a different ballgame, but who knows. Maybe I'm crazy. Them and GA Tech are probably the 2 worst p5 teams right now and I sure as hell ain't lining up to bet GA Tech.

I've already played JMU ML and +8.5. I think this game means way more to them and Appy has to have a let down?
 
CPA-hole said:
Colorado doesn't have a pulse but does anyone want to lay 21.5 with UCLA? ML is a different ballgame, but who knows. Maybe I'm crazy. Them and GA Tech are probably the 2 worst p5 teams right now and I sure as hell ain't lining up to bet GA Tech.

I've already played JMU ML and +8.5. I think this game means way more to them and Appy has to have a let down?
Click to expand...

Totally agree on Appy. Not sure how they can continue this.

But watch me be wrong....
 
booksbestfriend said:
Mizzou?? Harsin is a dead man walking and THE AU O is offensive
Click to expand...

I’m not sure mizzou will be able to move the ball, I havnt even looked at gm or line but I’d think under before anything. Mizzou offense is I’m sure equally offensive and I doubt the d nearly as good.

Holy shit, 51.5? I dunno how the hell they sniff this number? Defensive and special teams scores?? Tank should run all over mizzou,, that bout only offense I see, maybe mizzou returns a punt?
 
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ProV1Colt said:
Late getting started this week.....

These first few weeks we are seeing quite a few BIG Dogs take big bite

What stands out to you guys this week

GameDay being in Knoxville, I would consider playing the Gaytors

I am about to run thru the list of games tonight and see if any stand out.

@s--k had a keen eye for Rice last week
@CPA-hole just continues to find winners going 3-0 last week w/
Wyoming +430
Rice +325
Tulane +500

Everyone feel free to drop a line in the thread if anything stands out , Let's keep finding a few teams to cash a few tickets and in @JROCK1966 case a few teams to put in his Round Robins Parlays

Again thanks to all of you guys that contributing to the thread, jump in anytime and if you haven't been playing in the UnderDog Contest, it's never too late to make picks and if you don't take part in the contest, check it out, you will find some winners there as well, We have a good race going in that contest
Click to expand...
I definitely think with all of the gameday hoopla if good AR shows up the gators could surprise. Where is the underdog contest thread? Don't see it. Thanks
 
Two Utes said:
I definitely think with all of the gameday hoopla if good AR shows up the gators could surprise. Where is the underdog contest thread? Don't see it. Thanks
Click to expand...

The problem w gators/ar is they had to show everything he goes well to win that Utah gm! That said im not sure vols defense is good enough to take away what he does well?
 
I could def get behind gators, vols d gonna cost them a game at some point.

Kinda surprised to see arky as dogs, I think they absolutely better than Aggies and I’m pretty confident they can scheme to take achane away,, then how does AM move the ball?
 
2daBank said:
The problem w gators/ar is they had to show everything he goes well to win that Utah gm! That said im not sure vols defense is good enough to take away what he does well?
Click to expand...
Not sure why Utah stuck with man coverage. They rarely play zone but they have situationally And they should have in the second half of that game.
 
I'm seriously considering these teams on my card so far....thoughts?

ULM
Boston College
JMU
USM
LTech
WMU
Arkansas
 
JROCK1966 said:
I'm seriously considering these teams on my card so far....thoughts?

ULM
Boston College
JMU
USM
LTech
WMU
Arkansas
Click to expand...
BC is extremely bad. I watched the entire game against VT. I guess there is some 1 in 100 chance they could win if the TO margin was like 5 to 0 or something and they get some busted coverage TDs. All you have to do is cover Zay Flowers and they will not score.

Their OL is incredibly bad, so they will not be able to run the ball at all. Counting sack yards BC had 4 rushing yards against VT.
 
He Hate Me said:
BC is extremely bad. I watched the entire game against VT. I guess there is some 1 in 100 chance they could win if the TO margin was like 5 to 0 or something and they get some busted coverage TDs. All you have to do is cover Zay Flowers and they will not score.

Their OL is incredibly bad, so they will not be able to run the ball at all. Counting sack yards BC had 4 rushing yards against VT.
Click to expand...
Leaning 1st half with them...they can hang for a half with the Noles...

Kanas State looks intriguing to me...Oklahoma has played NO ONE!!
 
JROCK1966 said:
I'm seriously considering these teams on my card so far....thoughts?

ULM
Boston College
JMU
USM
LTech
WMU
Arkansas
Click to expand...
I was kind of impressed watching WMU vs Pitt last week. They were going in for a tying score at 20 and threw a pick in the EZ ans couldn't recover. Funky matchup. Not sure what to make of SJSU.

I'll be Arkansas. I think they are the better team with a better coach. AnM was extremely lucky to beat Miami.
 
Not sure if Rice can duplicate last week but I never trust Houston. They seem like a team that can mail a season in a hurry.
 
JROCK1966 said:
I'm seriously considering these teams on my card so far....thoughts?

ULM
Boston College
JMU
USM
LTech
WMU
Arkansas
Click to expand...

i love FSU, but 17.5 is just too many points to lay here. not sure which game it'll be...but was thinking after Ville, they will let down vs one of BC or WF, before having to face NCST and Clemson the follwoing two weeks.

JMU and LTech, agreed...maybe Arkansas too

i like SJST though, and someone sure pounded them on Monday morning.
 
JROCK1966 said:
I'm seriously considering these teams on my card so far....thoughts?

ULM
Boston College
JMU
USM
LTech
WMU
Arkansas
Click to expand...
ULM was one I just skipped over because I don't know anything about them yet. What might I like? I know a lot about ULL and could go ULM if they have some positives?
 
It’s down to these 7:

ULM
Oregon St.
Texas Tech
Arkansas
Whisky 1st Half
La. Tech 1st Half
Buffalo

:popcorn:
 
s--k said:
ULM was one I just skipped over because I don't know anything about them yet. What might I like? I know a lot about ULL and could go ULM if they have some positives?
Click to expand...
You know me @s—k I just do my data points, SDQL code, and look for things like in-state rivalries and revenge factors…my data is showing this line to be short which interests me as they are a home dog…also have some SDQL code to back a play here….that’s all I got.

:violin2:
 
I cashed w ku last week but how will they be in a very unfamiliar role as a td fav vs another power 5? Maybe overshadowed by ku surprising success is duke been overachieving themselves,, this feels like a total shootout so would it be all that surprising if duke got ball last and won? This gotta be strange territory for ku being told how great they are and coming into a game they all a sudden expected to win! Their coach is doing a great job but the defense still has a long ways to go, love them and the high octane offense as dogs but think the d leaves them ripe to get upset.
 
Duke schedule leaves lot to be desired but they have been excellent against the run. Obviously ku rush attack with jalen Daniels running around will be a big challenge but I do like how well duke has been defending the run.
 
JROCK1966 said:
It’s down to these 7:

ULM
Oregon St.
Texas Tech
Arkansas
Whisky 1st Half
La. Tech 1st Half
Buffalo

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

I can’t stop drinking the usc kool aid, it been tasting so good! Im a big beavers fan, love their coach, but they let fresno rack up almost 500 yards of offense, no offense to fresno but if they put up 500 yards I have little doubt usc hanging another 40 burger! That offense is a freaking college all star team, there nothing you can focus on taking away cause they can beat you so many different ways w so many guys throwing or rushing! Think it gonna take a crazy physical team who can just dominate up front and control the game w their offense to beat these guys, I like the beavers but not sure they are it. Utah the only pac12 team I think equipped to possibly do it. I could see udub staying with them in a shootout., I just don’t think beavers can. It will be a crazy tough environment but think beavers would have to play absolutely perfect to avoid falling behind and letting game get away from them. Line does scream im a sucker tho, so maybe they do! lol
 
2daBank said:
I can’t stop drinking the usc kool aid, it been tasting so good! Im a big beavers fan, love their coach, but they let fresno rack up almost 500 yards of offense, no offense to fresno but if they put up 500 yards I have little doubt usc hanging another 40 burger! That offense is a freaking college all star team, there nothing you can focus on taking away cause they can beat you so many different ways w so many guys throwing or rushing! Think it gonna take a crazy physical team who can just dominate up front and control the game w their offense to beat these guys, I like the beavers but not sure they are it. Utah the only pac12 team I think equipped to possibly do it. I could see udub staying with them in a shootout., I just don’t think beavers can. It will be a crazy tough environment but think beavers would have to play absolutely perfect to avoid falling behind and letting game get away from them. Line does scream im a sucker tho, so maybe they do! lol
Click to expand...
The game is in SLC but early enough in the year that snow is unlikely. Should be a good game
 
Jmu and duke the 2 dogs I like best so far. I def lean to rice with the points, wouldn’t shock me if they won, houston isn’t as good as last year.
 
Last week was Tulane’s biggest win since Louisville 1998.

How they respond back home will be interesting…

I’m not advocating a play either way, just pointing out
 
carolinablue said:
Any thoughts on Chattanooga? Currently at 677 which is solid value given the style of play of both teams.
Click to expand...

Im not allowed to bet Illinios games so I didn’t look much. That is a ton of points for Illini to be laying tho! I don’t really know anything bout Chattanooga, they been big favs in all their wins so hard to read much into their numbers thus far.
 
twinkie13 said:
Last week was Tulane’s biggest win since Louisville 1998.

How they respond back home will be interesting…

I’m not advocating a play either way, just pointing out
Click to expand...
Willie Fritz is 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS as a home fav coming off a road win. What really sucks for me tho is the fact his teams are 8-0 SU in this situation after the 1st Half....I was about to hammer Southern Miss 1st Half ML in several parlays this weekend until I found that stat. Interesting tidbit this is the same situation his team found themselves in 2 years ago when the Navy made their 2nd half comeback to win that game. Still mulling over a Southern Miss FG ML.

:popcorn:

wfritz.jpg
 
s--k said:
Washington State can win if their D can produce some turnovers and avoid giving it away. Wazzou D might be better than their O. I think Cam Ward is coming around as the season wears on. He is a true sophomore and playing FBS teams for the first time.
Click to expand...

Betting against Bo Nix on the road was a pretty profitable strategy when he was at AU
 
gps_3 said:
Betting against Bo Nix on the road was a pretty profitable strategy when he was at AU
Click to expand...

Yea I’m def on board w wazzu, I can’t believe they not ranked. Let’s keep those loser canes in top 25 based off their wins over nobody, but this team who hasn’t lost and has went on road and got a legit win isnt?
 
JROCK1966 said:
Willie Fritz is 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS as a home fav coming off a road win. What really sucks for me tho is the fact his teams are 8-0 SU in this situation after the 1st Half....I was about to hammer Southern Miss 1st Half ML in several parlays this weekend until I found that stat. Interesting tidbit this is the same situation his team found themselves in 2 years ago when the Navy made their 2nd half comeback to win that game. Still mulling over a Southern Miss FG ML.

:popcorn:

View attachment 68668
Click to expand...
It’s a great stat agreed

But off this win, totally different. I’m digging around
 
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