Week 4 ML Dogs

JROCK1966 said:
A couple of queries I ran and listed below suggest USC wins but does not cover. 1st one is last week's final game margins + total defense and total offense comparisons. It has a record of 7-2 SU but 2-7 ATS. Active on USC tonight. The 2nd one I replaced total offense and total defense with QB efficiency and the records came back 2-1 SU but yet 0-3 ATS. Also active on USC. Methinks USC likely wins by a FG or so.

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Damn! I should try doing this more often!
 
Gonna throw out the Hawkeyes. Think their brand of f-ball may take down the Badgers.

Haven’t really weighed in this week. These are a few I could see upsetting their opponents

MN
Louisville
Ore St
Vandy
UL-Mo
 
Ive been staring at tucky +10 for a few days but have not seen a second of miss st this year. Just know the hype. Good reads all around, may bite
 
Last one I'm looking into is EMU starting out as a spot play but thinking they could hang with SDST as well.
 
+3250 LOL....UConn may be starting 8-9 freshman today. Just seems so strange seeing Syracuse favored by this many. UConn O 486 yards vs UCF O and 584 on Rhode Island, but they allowed Boise 818! Not a realistic ML play although I might be a sucker for +29. TahoeLegend would not approve.
 
wazzou gave good effort last night but got clipped in the end

today I'm on W.Ky +132 as lone ML doggie

Good info in this thread..thx all contributors
:bravo:
 
rambler882 said:
Last one I'm looking into is EMU starting out as a spot play but thinking they could hang with SDST as well.
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I was thinking on that one too.

Juwan Washington left last week's game. He practiced Thursday. With a bye on deck SDSt might be advised to get him fully healthy. Jasmin should be ok with added work. From an EM perspective if they hold Washington out or lighten his load that would be good.

EM has some bad rush D numbers. Rocky Long may've just been trying to build up his opponent, he said when a D is facing a spread attack they can't stack the box and that gives the Os more advantages...advantages that SDSt will not enjoy because they don't spread the D allowing EM to stack the box. Coach talk. SDSt should control the LOS and their run attack is among the best G5 teams out there. I do think EM D is a little better than their numbers imply.

EM S/LB Brody Hoying is still out. I'm not sure exactly what his injury is. Some say it might be a shoulder. He is one of EM's better players and has missed the last two games. Don't think he is back yet.

SDSt was solid last year, but they do have a history of dropping games as a favorite. In 2016 they lost in back-to-back weeks as 9.5 and 11.5 pt favs to Wyoming and Colorado State. They also lost to South Alabama home and away as 17.5 and 19 pt favs in 2015 and 2016.

Could be letdown factor, off the Arizona State win, but no look-ahead with bye.
 
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Mississippi State @ Kentucky Part II: In the interest of full transparency (I'm not your average politician), I wanted to post the SDQL results for this game using the same methodology I used yesterday to nail the final margin in the USC game. I am almost never that good so I think I might be onto a theme I can use for making my picks for today....I better hurry though as games are starting soon LOL! Anyway, it does not look good for my Cats historically-speaking. Away favs with previous week's margins included, facing a team with a negative TO margin, and having a better QB rating than their opponents, are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in SDQL database history. A few notes here....1) I'm especially concerned this game tonight has a total very close to the samples generated and 2) I will be on my Cats 1st Half only!! It makes sense to me that Ky will come out pumped for this big game and then MSU asserts itself in the 2nd half with their pounding rushing game, working the clock, etc. etc. In 2 of the 3 samples below, the home team had a lead at the half so my fear of a critical turnover by TW and/or Ky's offense at some point will likely come true in the 2nd half if it does occer.....and lastly 3) I really hope I'm wrong!! :holycow:

BOL in what you Gents decide!

msu4.jpg
 
s--k said:
I was thinking on that one too.

Juwan Washington left last week's game. He practiced Thursday. With a bye on deck SDSt might be advised to get him fully healthy. Jasmin should be ok with added work. From an EM perspective if they hold Washington out or lighten his load that would be good.

EM has some bad rush D numbers. Rocky Long may've just been trying to build up his opponent, he said when a D is facing a spread attack they can't stack the box and that gives the Os more advantages...advantages that SDSt will not enjoy because they don't spread the D allowing EM to stack the box. Coach talk. SDSt should control the LOS and their run attack is among the best G5 teams out there. I do think EM D is a little better than their numbers imply.

EM S/LB Brody Hoying is still out. I'm not sure exactly what his injury is. Some say it might be a shoulder. He is one of EM's better players and has missed the last two games. Don't think he is back yet.

SDSt was solid last year, but they do have a history of dropping games as a favorite. In 2016 they lost in back-to-back weeks as 9.5 and 11.5 pt favs to Wyoming and Colorado State. They also lost to South Alabama home and away as 17.5 and 19 pt favs in 2015 and 2016.

Could be letdown factor, off the Arizona State win, but no look-ahead with bye.
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Great intel here, it is entirely a gut read based on spot + San Diego St. does tend to play down. Saw line moved to around 13 so it caught my eye. Overlooked the bye component.
 
Not much time to comment this am
But I am leaning
WKU
Costal Carolina
Ville
UNLV
Bowling Green
 
Anyone who likes UNLV that has a moment to give me something? I like UNLV O, little worried about the competition they've faced to build up some of their numbers. What about the Rebel D? They are going to have to some success on D to stop Hansen, who and what to watch on that can lead to Rebels win?
 
UNLV @ Arky State: Some mojo here for the Runnin' Rebs....the key stat that made a difference in my queries was UNLV has a positive turnover margin and Arky State has a negative turnover margin. This situation historically has a 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS record for the home fav. As always, BOL in what you decide Gents!
LeRinkRat said:
just about ANYONE vs sorry ass USC. I am STILL trying to figure out HOW the "Condums" beat my UNLV Rebels game one of the season (BUT they covered the +25) :mad:

and speaking of the Rebels they are +8 @ Arkansas State Saturday. will definitely play THAT plus moneyline when it is available :)
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UNLV @ Arky State: Some mojo here for your Runnin' Rebs....the key stat that made a difference in my queries was UNLV has a positive turnover margin and Arky State has a negative turnover margin. This situation historically has a 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS record for the home fav. I will be tailing you RinkRat!

unlv.jpg
 
Ohio @ Cincy: Interesting....very interesting. The lone loss in the sample games listed has the exact same total as today's game. In addition, we have an intra-state rivalry going which I know rivalries are huge in the dog-pickin' methodolgy for my good friend The Parlay Picker. Bobcats for the upset??

ohio.jpg
 
@ProV1Colt asked me to post this here as it may generate some winners from the Week 4 CTG/TSE Underdog Challenge Contest. I tallied the 3 most popular picks and it has produced at least 2/3 winners for last 2 weeks so just another piece of info.

as of right now...here sre the top 3 picks from players:

Wash St (loser)
Iowa
Marshall, Texas St, Rice , Ohio

not sure if i will be able to update as day goes on but good luck if you decide to play any of these !
 
Wow! Reference posts 76 & 98....Savannah State is +2 and Idaho +6....not sure what lines SDQL was picking up when I did my queries or if there was some serious line movement. Either way, no longer are they available or worth the +ml.

:pissed:
 
s--k said:
Anyone who likes UNLV that has a moment to give me something? I like UNLV O, little worried about the competition they've faced to build up some of their numbers. What about the Rebel D? They are going to have to some success on D to stop Hansen, who and what to watch on that can lead to Rebels win?
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Sorry I just read this but hopefully you saw my post #115 above...even if you didn't good luck to us as we ended up on the same side!
 
Clemson @ Georgia Tech: Can the Jackets possibly knock off Clemson today? I had goto a -200yd difference between total defenses to get some samples from this query. See pics 1 & 2. And one of those samples includes a straight up win. GTech's defense averages giving up only 30 more ypg than Clemson so there is a significant improvement than the sample which has a winning result. Clemson does have a freshman QB on his first conference road start and Texas A&M almost knocked them off a couple weeks ago. Whatsayyou?

GT1.jpgGT2.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Clemson @ Georgia Tech: Can the Jackets possibly knock off Clemson today? I had goto a -200yd difference between total defenses to get some samples from this query. See pics 1 & 2. And one of those samples includes a straight up win. GTech's defense averages giving up only 30 more ypg than Clemson so there is a significant improvement than the sample which has a winning result. Clemson does have a freshman QB on his first conference road start and Texas A&M almost knocked them off a couple weeks ago. Whatsayyou?

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Guess not.

:doh2:
 
Ryno14 said:
I don’t disagree that they looked awful to the human eye. I watched it at the Vols bar here in Chicago and was stunned when I saw the yardage differential the next day. However, I do tend to believe the playcalling was that way as to not tip Florida off to anything. And I’d expect Helton to open it up a bit.
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My god Helton
#WhattheHelton

Well, we will really never know how this game would have played out w/out all the turnovers.

Unbelievable.

Do you see 5 wins now?
This could be another 0-8 SEC year.
Would you have ever thought you would see the day Vandy & KentLucky would field a better football team than Tennessee.
I'm just sick to my stomach right now, there is only one way to go from here right?
 
That was the most dominate performance from a UK defense I have seen in my lifetime. Shit just has never happened that I've seen and I was too young to remember the 1977 defense. This was incredible and I had no idea they had that effort in them.

GO BIG BLUE!!
 
s--k said:
Ohio 50 to win 108
GaState 20 to win 51
Rice 50 to win 224
TexTech 20 to win 95
UNLV 20 to win 48
LaTech 10 to win 84
ULM 50 to win 85
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1-6 straight up, 4-3 ATS doesn't get it.

Man...Cincy only led for 3.5 minutes the entire game...the last 3.5 minutes. Then Ohio drives down the field and throws a bad INT at the goal line from like the 2. Fuck. Southern Miss speed and athleticism was a big difference. UNLV was lucky to cover as ASU missed a FG up 7. LaTech made is close late before LSU extended the lead a bit. Would've been nice if I lost a ML on a comeback by Cincy if I could've won one with ULM. Down 7-35, they outscored Troy 20-0 2nd H and driving for a would-be TD, but throw INT in EZ from like the 20. Not the kind of ML plays I was hoping for.

ODU? No. If it was August I might've made a case for them beating VT. In alot of ways, they lost their first 3 games so they could win this game tonight. Dollaz could speak to it better, but this VT game was the most hyped event for ODU all summer and the way ODU played this year they acted like they thought they could just take everyone easy and wait until VT came to town. That is the potential they had all year, not just today, that is the kind of ball they should've played in their first 3. I won an average size wager on them ATS today, but I have lost more on them this year then I would like to admit.
 
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A stat that just really freaks me out from last night's game is my Cats Defense held Mississippi State to 56 total yards rushing. A bit of comparison folks...last year in their losses @Georgia, @Auburn, and vs. Bama, State rushed for 177, 194, and 202yds. I never dreamed of the day Kentucky football would or could ever lay claim to the best defense in the SEC but (and you can laugh all you want) now a legit argument can be made for just that.

:biggestfan:
 
CHSGTMD said:
Have not been able to contribute much but my plays this week points and ML are

FAU =14 and ML +400
Wash St +4 1/2 and ML +175
ULMonroe +4 1/2 and ML 185
No Illinois +10 and ML +310
Texas Tech +14 amd ML+420
Kentucky +10 and ML +285

Good luck to all this weekend
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landed 2 here, Nice Contributing!!!
 
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