Week 4 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
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in&out
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tulsa
louiville
louiville
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
Excellent observation. The first thing I do on my weekly worksheet is to note those games where a team is coming off a huge game. Especially if that game turned into a loss. And the more heartbreaking loss the better. Also, I look for first time losses like this was for TCU.
Case in point happened a week previous when U Mass went traveling to Georgie So the week after they played the most important game on their schedule, a loss to B C. GS were a short favorite and won big.
I also look for games where a team lays an egg like USC did against Texas. This came one game after their loss to Stanford. I look for USC to play a better game this week.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I also saw thought that USC line was incredibly short...3.5? GOY had it at 15.5! Downward adjustment was needed, but that is a big drop. Wash St has exceeded my expectations, USC is probably about in line with my expectations. Neither team is as good as they were last year. A bigger drop for USC, yes. Just see this line as lower than it should be. I see people who like Washington State though so I may have a wrong outlook.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I usually do 150 spread / 50 ML. I want to clear about a unit if the ML loses ,but ATS wins. Sometimes I do 200 spread / 50 ML or 100 spread / 10 ML.
The money line probability on some of the ones I play, the larger spreads, aren't as likely to win so I want to make sure I get rewarded properly on the ATS which I obviously think has a higher chance of winning.
The money line probability on some of the ones I play, the larger spreads, aren't as likely to win so I want to make sure I get rewarded properly on the ATS which I obviously think has a higher chance of winning.
LockthisMonster
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for the help
LeRinkRat
Pretty much a regular
just about ANYONE vs sorry ass USC. I am STILL trying to figure out HOW the "Condums" beat my UNLV Rebels game one of the season (BUT they covered the +25)
and speaking of the Rebels they are +8 @ Arkansas State Saturday. will definitely play THAT plus moneyline when it is available
like these. four are "bet against"
Washington St +150 @ USC (just because USC STINKS)
@ Indiana +175 vs Michigan State (my Spartans LOSE @ Arizona St ???)
Northern Illinois +310 @ Florida State ('Noles STINK)
@ Georgia State +250 vs Western Michigan (Broncos are a MESS)
UNLV +245 @ Arkansas State (Rebels can score oodles)
Eastern Michigan +370 @ SDSU (WON @ Purdue. close @ Buffalo)
bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
WEEK 2 WEEK 3
Arizona +3 1/2 L Fresno-3 W
Arizona 157 L Fresno 150 W
Duke +2 1/2 W Rutgers +2 1/2 L
Duke 120 W Rutgers 120 L
Colorado +3 W Pitt +3 1/2 W
Colorado 145 W Pitt 155 W
Buffalo +4 1/2 W Texas St +10 1/2 W
Buffalo 175 W Texas St 290 L Tough Beat
Pitt +7 1/2 L Oregon St +3 1/2 W
Pitt 250 L Oregon St +155 L ToughBeat
Arizona St +5 W
Arizona St 175 W
Arizona +3 1/2 L Fresno-3 W
Arizona 157 L Fresno 150 W
Duke +2 1/2 W Rutgers +2 1/2 L
Duke 120 W Rutgers 120 L
Colorado +3 W Pitt +3 1/2 W
Colorado 145 W Pitt 155 W
Buffalo +4 1/2 W Texas St +10 1/2 W
Buffalo 175 W Texas St 290 L Tough Beat
Pitt +7 1/2 L Oregon St +3 1/2 W
Pitt 250 L Oregon St +155 L ToughBeat
Arizona St +5 W
Arizona St 175 W
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Southern Miss reinstated Griggs last Friday. Last Friday's practice was his first since being suspended August 11th. Not great news for Rice backers, but not exactly a game changer either. Abraham was ok (but made some big mistakes vs ULM), Griggs has experience with the team and talent, but with his first game action and limited practice time he may not be able to have his best effort first game back.
Elsewhere on SMiss' team, OL, running game...there just isn't much to get excited about. WRs are pretty good just young. Assuming Griggs starts he won't have a ton of chemistry with the receivers. They played last year as frosh but were not key contributors, top 3 rec from '17 are gone. Rice's secondary is not a team strength, so that is a vulnerability with Rice and a potential upgrade for SMiss now.
Elsewhere on SMiss' team, OL, running game...there just isn't much to get excited about. WRs are pretty good just young. Assuming Griggs starts he won't have a ton of chemistry with the receivers. They played last year as frosh but were not key contributors, top 3 rec from '17 are gone. Rice's secondary is not a team strength, so that is a vulnerability with Rice and a potential upgrade for SMiss now.
I just think of Penn State player meeting after losing to Ohio State then meeting had to be called then losing to Sparty.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I'm on OSU
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Would you say Cincy is a bad O or just one-dimensional?
I am thinking the style of play matches up better for Ohio this week. Although I am a little fearful of size and strength of UC run game can wear on the Bobcats.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well byvstruggling i guess i mean you cannot trust them to put up a number. Their identity appears to be tough running with tough defense which isnt a bad winning combo but not abgreat lay big points combo (a la wiscy)
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
How was the UK bar when we beat Florida?! It was nuts down here!
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
I honestly don’t remember much besides high fives and shots. It was packed. Obviously, no flipping cars or anything. The client sent me a video of that later and said if his wife hadn’t made him go back to the hotel that that would’ve been us
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
Lol, that happened right down the street from me!
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
After last night's loss by Tulsa, the updated records for my trend from post #15 are 14-9 SU and 20-3 ATS. Skipper simply could not hold onto the ball. After the last fumble he had, he came off the field with a look on his face like he had zero confidence. But I guess that's all part of capping games, Ey?
PS - a new hit on the query has popped up....this trend is also active on Savannah State for tomorrow FWIW.
PS - a new hit on the query has popped up....this trend is also active on Savannah State for tomorrow FWIW.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
The difference in this trend and the one above is I replaced total defense with QB Efficiency. Away dogs with 1) lines less than or equal to 10pts, 2) worse QB Efficiency, 3) both fav & dog have negative turnover margins, and 4) since the beginning of the 2016 season. The records are 22-9 SU for 71% and 27-4 ATS for 87.1%. Also active on Savannah State tomorrow.
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JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Mississippi State @ Kentucky: There are not many stats that favor my Cats tomorrow night vs. the Bulldogs. At least I could not find many. So I'm just going to share my thoughts on this one. I do believe Kentucky holds some value. The key is the play of our QB Terry Wilson and what this offense has NOT shown. It seems, after a pretty nervous-filled, rocky start vs. Central Michigan, he has become comfortable playing QB at the D1 level almost as quick as turning on a light switch. True, he was bad in our 1st game and he had to be subbed for. But as bad as that performance was, he was THE difference in the Swamp just 1 week later and, by all accounts I have seen & read, played sharp last week vs. Murray St. The opponent last week was obviously weak but Eddie Gran (OC) added some plays to his repertoire and TW continued to grow with the offense. This is textbook Eddie Gran from what I've seen the past 2 years. For example, 2 years ago, Bennie Snell did not even get into a ballgame until the 3rd game of the season in which he burst onto the scene with 136yds rushing vs. NM St. One player, that I had forgotten we even recruited, that was featured last week was Jr. receiver Zy 'Aire Hughes. Wow! That dude was fast! Suddenly, instead of being an offense just a few short weeks ago that I thought was going to go as far as RB Benny Snell would take them, has some serious weapons! We have WR Lynn Bowden, TE CJ Conrad, RB Benny Snell, WR Hughes, RB A. Rose....and then we have this dual threat QB that seriously reminds me of a Michael Vick...not quite as fast or quite as strong throwing arm....but he is the most talented QB I've seen at UK since Tim Couch and is in the Vick mold. No way I see Gran allowing TW to sit in the pocket and allow the MSU DL to tee off. Even if he does, TW has shown at Florida he has the ability to escape and make a big offensive play out of nothing.
In short, the value with backing Kentucky tomorrow comes from the anticipated and continued growth of this offense compared to the past game's results in which this game's line has been generated from. IMO, there is a lot this Ky. offense can hang its hat on and we will certainly have some weapons (both new that we have NOT seen much of and old that we know we can count on) that will test this formidable MSU defense.
On defense I just thinking, MSU went to both Jawja and Auburn early last season in road games and got wiped. Look for the Cats to load the box and try to slow down this incredible Bulldog rushing game (just like Auburn and Jawja accomplished last season) and try to force Fitz to beat us through the air. I don't have the exact stats, but I know Fitz has not been too incredibly accurate passing the ball around this year. We could use another pick six like what Fitz threw two years ago in our game but, if Ky's defense (and we do have Bohanna DT back this week which will help immensely) can slow down this MSU rushing game, then we'll be in business at home as I do think we will score.
Just my $0.02
:watchingsports:
In short, the value with backing Kentucky tomorrow comes from the anticipated and continued growth of this offense compared to the past game's results in which this game's line has been generated from. IMO, there is a lot this Ky. offense can hang its hat on and we will certainly have some weapons (both new that we have NOT seen much of and old that we know we can count on) that will test this formidable MSU defense.
On defense I just thinking, MSU went to both Jawja and Auburn early last season in road games and got wiped. Look for the Cats to load the box and try to slow down this incredible Bulldog rushing game (just like Auburn and Jawja accomplished last season) and try to force Fitz to beat us through the air. I don't have the exact stats, but I know Fitz has not been too incredibly accurate passing the ball around this year. We could use another pick six like what Fitz threw two years ago in our game but, if Ky's defense (and we do have Bohanna DT back this week which will help immensely) can slow down this MSU rushing game, then we'll be in business at home as I do think we will score.
Just my $0.02
:watchingsports:
Love the insight JRock thanks.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Now comes the $64,000 question of whether I'm right or wrong LOL! I hope I'm right!
:judge:
What do people think of Wazzou‘s chances tonight?
Teapot9
Not from 63rd
I think USC bounces back tonight.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
A couple of queries I ran and listed below suggest USC wins but does not cover. 1st one is last week's final game margins + total defense and total offense comparisons. It has a record of 7-2 SU but 2-7 ATS. Active on USC tonight. The 2nd one I replaced total offense and total defense with QB efficiency and the records came back 2-1 SU but yet 0-3 ATS. Also active on USC. Methinks USC likely wins by a FG or so.
DBURGH
Pretty much a regular
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
They will make one of my Parlays tomorrow. Yes.
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
Great analysis. As I said in d8’s thread yesterday people don’t realize how much high level talent UK has. The running game is one of the best in the nation and Wilson makes UK extremely dangerous. Conrad, Bowden, and Snell will play in the NFL. The line is very good, too. And that’s not even mentioning a vastly improved defense with 4 guys who’ll be taken in the first 3-4 rounds of the draft. MSU is solid but people are seriously sleeping on this UK team. I’ll definitely be on them +10 with a small ML play, too.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
A players only meeting 3 weeks into a coach's tenure? Holy crap.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
TW still might be turnover prone Eazy...and against this hard-hitting MSU defense, TO’s are still a major concern and will be the reason we lose...IF we lose. But it’s defintely going to be an exciting game and I can’t wait!!!
BOLTA!!!
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
I’ll be avoiding the side and playing over. BOL.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Re: UK...
I have ML'd UK the last two years in this series. 2016 was exciting! Not sure I will be joining in this year though. I have a hard time forgetting how noncompetitive UK was last year. UK is better this year and at home...MSU should be better as well though. When I ML against a fav I want to have some kind of weakness to point to. There were weaknesses with Florida. What do we have with Miss St? Coaching transition? The win vs KSt confirmed that the team is still in good hands and operating well. UK is better than KSt I'd agree there, but any issues from one coaching staff to the other has yet to materialize. What else? Fitzgerald isn't a great passer? That is sometimes true. So can UK limit the MSU run game and force them into passing when they don't want to? Maybe, that will be the big test here, if they can then this will be an interesting game. Anything else...any weakness with MSU D? I don't think really, not one I could see UK exploiting atleast. But maybe the MSU D isn't as good as some people (like me) think? If Wilson has an A+ game, UK could hang here. But I mean he will really have to elevate his game. It's possible. I am concerned about his ball security.
I like the +pts UK play, but risking for them to win outright might be a little too much for me. I do have UK Ov5.5 wins so will be happy if they can pull it out!
Re: Wash St / USC
Think I will be on USC tonight, probably a smaller play and then evaluate at HT. Wash St is a little light up front and haven't faced much of a rush O except for Wyoming. I expect USC to be best challenge they've seen on the ground and expect SC to get the upper hand there. USC OL isn't very good, they should be able to control the LOS and lean on the running game instead of asking Daniels to deliver on every play. USC has been able to move the ball and get into + territory and the RZ, their problem is when they get there they don't score TDs. On D...? Wash St hasn't missed a beat with Minshew. Not sure what to expect SC D vs WSt O. SC's best pass rusher Gustin out 1st H. I may be taking for granted that SC can matchup with them, but I'm not sure what that looks like.
I have ML'd UK the last two years in this series. 2016 was exciting! Not sure I will be joining in this year though. I have a hard time forgetting how noncompetitive UK was last year. UK is better this year and at home...MSU should be better as well though. When I ML against a fav I want to have some kind of weakness to point to. There were weaknesses with Florida. What do we have with Miss St? Coaching transition? The win vs KSt confirmed that the team is still in good hands and operating well. UK is better than KSt I'd agree there, but any issues from one coaching staff to the other has yet to materialize. What else? Fitzgerald isn't a great passer? That is sometimes true. So can UK limit the MSU run game and force them into passing when they don't want to? Maybe, that will be the big test here, if they can then this will be an interesting game. Anything else...any weakness with MSU D? I don't think really, not one I could see UK exploiting atleast. But maybe the MSU D isn't as good as some people (like me) think? If Wilson has an A+ game, UK could hang here. But I mean he will really have to elevate his game. It's possible. I am concerned about his ball security.
I like the +pts UK play, but risking for them to win outright might be a little too much for me. I do have UK Ov5.5 wins so will be happy if they can pull it out!
Re: Wash St / USC
Think I will be on USC tonight, probably a smaller play and then evaluate at HT. Wash St is a little light up front and haven't faced much of a rush O except for Wyoming. I expect USC to be best challenge they've seen on the ground and expect SC to get the upper hand there. USC OL isn't very good, they should be able to control the LOS and lean on the running game instead of asking Daniels to deliver on every play. USC has been able to move the ball and get into + territory and the RZ, their problem is when they get there they don't score TDs. On D...? Wash St hasn't missed a beat with Minshew. Not sure what to expect SC D vs WSt O. SC's best pass rusher Gustin out 1st H. I may be taking for granted that SC can matchup with them, but I'm not sure what that looks like.
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
UK over 5.5 wins is basically already a lock. I’ll be on USC tonight, too.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
It is kind of interesting ... uk has a decent running game and a decent defense but i think msu has a better defense and better running game and a better chance tontaje advantage if their running game slows. For UK to be in it, they need to have a good first quarter imo. I dont think they are built for come from behind while i think msu is built for running it out at the end. So while I am on Miss State minus, were i looking at uk ML, i think 1h is probably better than full game
Eazyduzit
UK 8 KU 3
UK has one of the best running games in the country with a great line and great back. Same with MSU. To me it comes down to Wilson. He actually has more potential as a runner than Fitzgerald. But also more potential to turn it over. UK has a nice defense but I’d give MSU the edge there. I think it’ll come down to turnovers and the passing game. Look for Conrad to have a big game for the Cats. Should be a good one.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
LSU looks to be without it’s best OLmen in Sadiiq Charles tomorrow. They will be sending out their 4th different OL grouping in as many games. OL was the difference last week beyond the supposed refs angle which is hilarious AT Auburn. I’ll be on LA Tech and points. Will also play 1st H ML small. LSU D and special teams won’t let me pull the trigger on game ML but the Southeastern game 2 weeks back has me worried what the outcome is being a life long Tiger homer.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Idaho @ UC-Davis +11: Away favs in which their opponent lost their last game by more than 19 pts and were away, have a worse QB rating than their opponent, and worse total defense then their opponent have gone 7-13 SU and 7-13 ATS in SDQL database history (pics 1 & 2). They've only won 35% of the time folks. That's not good. Here's the kicker though, my query below takes into account all the players who have played QB for both teams. A quick look at the NCAA Stats and it shows the QB for Idaho has a better rating than the QB for UC Davis.....not by much though but it does go against my query results. It would be helpful if I knew who is starting for both squads. Even so, pic 3 shows the query results with the away fav and a better QB rating. It's SU results are 50% which is still good when you are looking to back a dog on the ML. Is Jake Maier starting for UC Davis? What is Mason Petrino's status?
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Looks like Petrino started for Idaho last game. Maier started for UC Davis but was relieved in the 4th Qtr by Rodriguez who threw 6 completions and, when added to Maier's stats, puts UC Davis' overall QB rating above Idaho's QBs. UC Davis got some decent press about a spirited effort defensively last week @ the Stanford Cardinal. UC Davis is ranked 25th in FCS and Idaho is not currently ranked. Idaho has seen both sides of large margins losing by 60 pts to Fresno State and then winning by 46pts over Western New Mexico. Really? Western New Mexico? Are they DIII?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Here is something for you guys on Rice.
It is more of a gut call, in watching games Rice is improved this year and Southern Miss may not be. Rice was a bad football team last season and this is only game 4 with the new staff (played week 0, bye last week). So far this year Rice has shown more competitiveness. Looking at Week 1 vs Houston, the Owls had 439 yards of offense, they only topped that figure once in 2017. In Week 2 at Hawaii they had similar production, 446 yards. Through 3 games Rice has actually moved to 63rd nationally in total O, they were 116th last year. And they averaged 28 ppg with 27 vs Hou and 29 vs Haw…they only scored 27 or more 3x last season. So the O has picked up the new Stanford-ish scheme quickly. They’ve settled on Vandy grad transfer Shawn Stankavage and he has done well 61%, 5-2 ratio 182 ypg. His play is a significant upgrade from last year's QB play. Rice has a couple decent WRs, TEs and some good RBs to work with. HC Bloomgren seems to be getting the most out of them.
The D remains a weakness, especially the pass D. They held up well vs the run against Houston for a half, holding the Cougs to just 90y on 20 att in the 1st H, 39y on 19 att if you take out a 51y run. Houston did much better in the 2nd H however, 163y on 16att. Rice lost 45-27, Owls did miss 3 FGs (all from 45+). Owls owned a 40-20 TOP edge and were 50% on 3rd down. Rice had a 2nd qrt lead and actually maintained a lead for most of the 3rd qrt.
Hawaii started fast, but after being down 14-0, Rice settled in and played well. At one point they forced 4 straight Haw punts and actually only trailed by 6 early 4th qrt before losing 43-29 (Haw busted a 46y run when killing clock). That run gave Haw a 162-147 rush yard edge. Haw only out passed Rice 319-299. Rice was SOD at the UH01 in this game and was -2 TOs.
Rice is executing what Broomgren wants them to do. Fans familiar with their games are praising the preperation and ingame adjustments. They have had bright spots on both sides of the ball for periods of both their FBS games this year. If they can keep being efficient on O and controlling TOP that will work to protect their vulnerable D. Rice has only lost 3 turnovers so far this year. They aren't just 3 yards and cloud of dust though, they are capable of popping some big plays, they have 18 (6 per gm) 25y+ plays this year, they only had 45 all of last year (3.75 per gm).
Southern Miss has more talent than Rice, yet they do have some weaknesses. SMiss OL has allowed 7 sacks in 2 games and they have only averaged 130 rushing ypg (3.29 ypc) vs Jack St and ULM - not the greatest of Ds faced. On the other side of the ball they haven’t gotten much penetration either, just 2 sacks, their D is allowing 5.0 ypc. Now, it isn’t that Rice’s numbers are better, but Southern Miss is supposed to have better athletes and they have played a softer schedule. SMiss has done well through the air with Jack Abraham and last year’s starter Kwadra Griggs is set to return here after being suspended and not with the team since August 11th.
Last year Southern Miss won 43-34 at 10.5 road favorite. SMiss got up 13-0 2nd qrt, then Rice kept it about a one score game until late in the 4th qrt. It was just 29-27 3rd qrt and 36-34 late 4th qrt (Rice failed 2pt conv). Rice outrushed them 254-186 (5.2-5.2), although SM had a total yard edge of 517-381 (7.7-5.9). I would say SMiss is a notch down from last year’s team. Griggs had a good game, but Ito Smith’s 155y rushing is gone and the top 4 receivers from the game are gone. SMiss is replacing a lot on the D. On the other hand, I feel Rice is upgraded.
Griggs is back here and that should be a boost for them, although he’s had just over one week of practice. Abraham may start, Griggs will play and he definitely provides a certain uneasiness from a Rice perspective in terms of what he could do (also a good runner). Still, SMiss isn’t what they used to be, and Rice isn’t quite what they used to be either (in a good way). Rice will need to play well and will have to play clean and get a break or two to pull this upset, but it certainly should not surprise anyone should it happen in my opinion.
It is more of a gut call, in watching games Rice is improved this year and Southern Miss may not be. Rice was a bad football team last season and this is only game 4 with the new staff (played week 0, bye last week). So far this year Rice has shown more competitiveness. Looking at Week 1 vs Houston, the Owls had 439 yards of offense, they only topped that figure once in 2017. In Week 2 at Hawaii they had similar production, 446 yards. Through 3 games Rice has actually moved to 63rd nationally in total O, they were 116th last year. And they averaged 28 ppg with 27 vs Hou and 29 vs Haw…they only scored 27 or more 3x last season. So the O has picked up the new Stanford-ish scheme quickly. They’ve settled on Vandy grad transfer Shawn Stankavage and he has done well 61%, 5-2 ratio 182 ypg. His play is a significant upgrade from last year's QB play. Rice has a couple decent WRs, TEs and some good RBs to work with. HC Bloomgren seems to be getting the most out of them.
The D remains a weakness, especially the pass D. They held up well vs the run against Houston for a half, holding the Cougs to just 90y on 20 att in the 1st H, 39y on 19 att if you take out a 51y run. Houston did much better in the 2nd H however, 163y on 16att. Rice lost 45-27, Owls did miss 3 FGs (all from 45+). Owls owned a 40-20 TOP edge and were 50% on 3rd down. Rice had a 2nd qrt lead and actually maintained a lead for most of the 3rd qrt.
Hawaii started fast, but after being down 14-0, Rice settled in and played well. At one point they forced 4 straight Haw punts and actually only trailed by 6 early 4th qrt before losing 43-29 (Haw busted a 46y run when killing clock). That run gave Haw a 162-147 rush yard edge. Haw only out passed Rice 319-299. Rice was SOD at the UH01 in this game and was -2 TOs.
Rice is executing what Broomgren wants them to do. Fans familiar with their games are praising the preperation and ingame adjustments. They have had bright spots on both sides of the ball for periods of both their FBS games this year. If they can keep being efficient on O and controlling TOP that will work to protect their vulnerable D. Rice has only lost 3 turnovers so far this year. They aren't just 3 yards and cloud of dust though, they are capable of popping some big plays, they have 18 (6 per gm) 25y+ plays this year, they only had 45 all of last year (3.75 per gm).
Southern Miss has more talent than Rice, yet they do have some weaknesses. SMiss OL has allowed 7 sacks in 2 games and they have only averaged 130 rushing ypg (3.29 ypc) vs Jack St and ULM - not the greatest of Ds faced. On the other side of the ball they haven’t gotten much penetration either, just 2 sacks, their D is allowing 5.0 ypc. Now, it isn’t that Rice’s numbers are better, but Southern Miss is supposed to have better athletes and they have played a softer schedule. SMiss has done well through the air with Jack Abraham and last year’s starter Kwadra Griggs is set to return here after being suspended and not with the team since August 11th.
Last year Southern Miss won 43-34 at 10.5 road favorite. SMiss got up 13-0 2nd qrt, then Rice kept it about a one score game until late in the 4th qrt. It was just 29-27 3rd qrt and 36-34 late 4th qrt (Rice failed 2pt conv). Rice outrushed them 254-186 (5.2-5.2), although SM had a total yard edge of 517-381 (7.7-5.9). I would say SMiss is a notch down from last year’s team. Griggs had a good game, but Ito Smith’s 155y rushing is gone and the top 4 receivers from the game are gone. SMiss is replacing a lot on the D. On the other hand, I feel Rice is upgraded.
Griggs is back here and that should be a boost for them, although he’s had just over one week of practice. Abraham may start, Griggs will play and he definitely provides a certain uneasiness from a Rice perspective in terms of what he could do (also a good runner). Still, SMiss isn’t what they used to be, and Rice isn’t quite what they used to be either (in a good way). Rice will need to play well and will have to play clean and get a break or two to pull this upset, but it certainly should not surprise anyone should it happen in my opinion.
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