Been thinking about Wake Forest and App State all week and thinking if I can pull the trigger on this ML.
WF and App St have played 22 times from 1975-01. App St has won 3 of the last 5 but is just 7-15 overall. This is WF’s first appearance at Kidd Brewer stadium and they are just the second P5 team to visit with Miami Fl being the first last year. Tickets for this one sold out in hours this summer.
Last year when the Canes rolled into Boone, NC they closed a 4 pt fav and while the atmosphere was great, the game failed to hold up it’s part of the bargain with Canes blowing the doors off App St with big plays and a speed disparity that was stark.
The moment and the opponent were too much for last year’s App St team, but I’m thinking this year should be different. These teams have many similarities.
Under Satterfield App St is 0-6 vs P5 teams, but those teams have been Clemson, Miami, Michigan, Tennessee and Georgia (twice). This is the first time they’ve faced a P5 team that they appear to be on equal footing with.
App St has finished top 20 in rush O and fewest sacks allowed three straight years (current through 3 games 63rd rushing O, but have only allowed 3 sacks). The OL did lose two starters from ‘16. A true Fr has earned his way into the started C spot this year. The 3 returning starters boost 83 career starts with the two new fighting for the LG spot have played in 28 career games (5 starts) and the C obviously just playing in and starting the first and only 3 games of his career to date.
Last season App St was #1 in Sun Belt rush O, total O and #1 in 10+ yard scrimmage plays and #2 with 20+ yard scrimmage plays.
They lost the great 4 year starting RB Marcus Cox, but Jalin Moore earned Co-O Player-of-the-Year last season and led the team in rushing (1402, 10TD). Of concern this week, Moore only had 1 carry in the second half vs Texas St and was in a walking boot early this week. Moore has progressed and is believed to be a game-time decision this week. If he can’t go Terrence Upshaw (Sr) and Marcus Williams (rFr) will step in.
They are starting 2 true frosh at WR in their 3 man group. This is because All-SBC WR Shaedon Meadors has not played this year and it is unknown if he is injured or serving a suspension. Darrynton Evans contributed last year, but he also has not played. Among the freshman filling in Thomas Hennigan has been impressive (12-102). The other, Malik Williams, is a converted DB (7-96). Ike Lewis is back offers some deep speed potential (4-73). Colin Reed is an option for them at TE (4-105-2TD).
App D is veteran with 6 Sr, 4 Jr and 1 Soph, with the Soph being Clifton Duck at CB who was 1st team SBC as a tr fr. The 4-man LB unit has 89 starts combined among them. Last year this D was #1 Sun Belt scoring, yards allowed, RZ D and #1 with fewest plays of 20+ yards allowed. They were also #2 SBC in sacks per game and opponent 3rd down %. While they lose 3 all conference performers, 3 return – 1 at each level of the D.
At QB, App and WF are fairly similar. Taylor Lamb will be starting his 42nd game, Wake's John Wolford 39th. Both have a 6-0 TD-INT ratio this season and Lamb hasn’t thrown a pick in 163 att (2nd longest active streak). Each have an 8.9 ypa and 65-67% completion rate. Both can run, although Wolford’s legs are more part of WF’s O. Current season rushing Wolford has 192y (5.65) to Lamb’s 117 (6.5).
The similarities continue...
WF’s OL returns 3 starters with 72 career starts among them and have two new players stepping into the RG and RT spots with 8 career starts combined from them.
WF returns ever player who scored a pt in 2016. But the big news for them this year is the emerging of rFr WR Greg Dortch, a burner who is leading the Deacs in rec, yards and TD receptions (14-179-4TD). Dortch is also used at punt and kick returner. The speed of rFr Akeem Byrd at RB is also something new for them.
8 Jr and Sr starters fill the Deacs D, most of which have been redshirted led by an All-ACC DE and S. While they are experienced at LB, the top 2 players from that 3-man unit have departed.
WF has been off to an outstanding start beating IAA, BC and Utah St by combined 131-27 score.
App St has struggled with a poor 31-10 loss at Georgia, a 54-7 win vs IAA and surprisingly last week trailed at half and hung on to win late 20-13 at a bad Texas St team.
Wake Forest should be every bit as good as last year and has improved their play making ability on O and ST and they’ve started hot.
App St does have some questions with injuries and absences at O skill positions, gotten off to a shaky start, but the D has held up their end of the equation.
My angle is this is another program defining moment for App St. To us, playing Wake Forest in Boone isn’t nearly that big of a deal, just a middle-of-the pack ACC team. But to them, getting an instate ACC team at home is quite a big deal. And while they were unable to rise to the occasion last season vs superior athletes and speed with Miami, I think they matchup much better this time around and actually the betting odds are better vs Wake (+6/+195 vs Wake) (+4/+156 vs Miami).
Wake Forest has not played one team with a pulse on O this year, while I very much respect their D, the results of the first 3 weeks are likely skewed by the poor Os they've faced. WF crushed Boston College, but a closer look at that game shows the stats even. The primary difference was turnovers that set up a 24y TD "drive", a 2 yard TD "drive" and a pick-six for 21 easy pts off turnovers in the 34-10 win. WF's first 5 drives of the game produced just 67 yards, so it is not like WF just walked in their and dominated.
I am worried about App’s situation at RB and WR, especially if Moore is a no go and worry that the new rFr players for WF are going to make them harder to defend. Having said that, App St has what I like...experienced team with a chance at a statement game as a home dog vs a team they should matchup well with and nearly 2:1 odds.
Most upset wins are hard to predict when you sit down and try to justify how or why, these teams are dogged for a reason. If it’s not the right risk for you to take then follow your gut.
