Week 4 Lookahead Lines/Openers and Discussion

Lexington 125 said:
Browns in a perfect buy low spot...if you dare.

Rams defense absolutely manhandled the Browns line. I don't put the Ravens defense in the same category. I think the Browns defense is good enough to keep them in this game. Cleveland needs to smarten up and use Chubb better
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I do think browns offense has a good chance for more success here, not sure ravens have any pass rushers to exploit the bad o-line? Ravens d lost a lot and kinda hard to say where they at? I pretty much throw out the results against fish and against kc as they both obviously on extreme ends of the scale. That only leaves the zona game and they moved it up and down the field pretty easily, just couldn’t cash in red zone which I think at least as much their offense as it was ravens d.

Kinda starting to lean over, I can’t see clowns on a short week coming up w a good defensive game plan to stop Lamar. This could be more of a shootout than some expect, and I’ve heard several ppl comment on how they thought the number was high and it getting bet down a little which kinda backs up those thoughts.

Can’t see myself playing against ravens and almost positive they will be in some 2 team 6 point teasers cause I can’t see them losing here. The over def has some appeal to me, just don’t completely trust Baker.
 
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Gandolf said:
With no wind? Lions will need to cover 70 yards vertically.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1176697394177695745
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Lol, wow.,

being the Ate up individual I tend to be I almost always try to pick holes in guys games who incredibly popular (never liked brees, Peyton Manning, etc. Only reason I like Brady cause enough ppl hate him! Lol). I can’t help myself with Ma-home-boy tho, kid is all kinds of incredible!! That one bandwagon I’m not only on but driving that Mfer!! Lol
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Plus Detroits D is stronger vs the run than the pass I think. Anyway who can stop the Injuns
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Best answer? Nobody!!!

I think KC the only reason Pats even attempted to make it work with that ignorant cancer of a human being AB! Imo it was a straight up admission they gonna have to put up a big number to beat them!! Hoody damn sure ain’t worried about his defense vs anyone else!! Mfers blanked kc for 2+ qrtrs in the afc ship and still gave up 31 and had to go to ot!!!
 
B.A.R. said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1176992517222539264
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That Mfer straight up lost! Lol. Talk about bad advice from agent and not knowing your worth!!

I don’t know the details and gotta assume the guaranteed money was dog shit on that deal chargers offered him in preseason at 10mil per season! Cause he was crazy to turn that down!!

Hate to say it but been saying it pretty much the entire time once it was obvious he was gonna miss all camp, I’d think it incredibly likely this dude gets hurt with some lingering thing that bothers him rest of season. Guy is injury prone anyways and the track record of guys holding out into the season then coming up lame w a hammy or something is long!!!

He ain’t no Zeke, Zeke a rare bread type athlete who the exception not the rule. Plus he had already been thru a similar thing w the suspension.

Honestly the way chargers been playing he might has well of pushed it a few more weeks and seen if they get desperate! Maybe he figured eckler was gonna show out vs fish and panicked? Who knows, but feel like he played this about as poorly as he could. Lol
 
I say all that which crazy cause I’m almost always on the players side in these type deals. Gordon just played it all wrong, if he has any sense he will fire the agent. Call me Melvin! For a mere 15% I’ll get you on the right track!!!! Lol
 
I keep looking as this Bucs/rams total and can’t help but think it high. Already lost a point but think gonna grab u49.5.

I dunno wtf happened to the Bucs defense last week? Did they get complacent having the big lead? I’m assuming not having much film on jones prob didn’t help (clearly they weren’t aware of his scrambling ability!). For the most part their defense been solid. They have done the best job by far on shanny niners, they absolutely took mccaffery away that thu night game. Before Barkley got hurt he had 8 rushes for 10 yards and 4 catches for 27 which pretty damn solid.

Does jones shredding them in the second half mean much? I really don’t think so.

You can run on the rams and Bucs been committed to running the ball. What rams don’t allow is those big plays Bucs passing offense thrives on. Both teams 3rd down d been solid and neither been great on 3rd downs. I just don’t see a lot of big plays here and don’t think it be easy for either team to drive the field, they also sporting strong red zone defenses so i think lot of drives will end in Fgs.. I think that gmen second half kinda giving a perception here that not incredibly accurate.

While Kupp makes rams offense much better they still not the offensive juggernaut they looked like last season. Gurley clearly not the same guy and teams have figured them out to a extent. Imo they not a team you can expect to hang 30+ a bunch, still solid but against a Tampa d that been good for all but a half I think 24-27 is more realistic. If they once again start slow as they have every week which will allow Tampa to stick w the rushing attack I think 44-47 is a pretty reasonable assumption for this one.
 
D-Woww said:
Tampa's offense woke up, albeit at home vs a crappy Giants defense. Cant imagine they don't put up some points in LA tho. Over 50.5?
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Rams will be playing defense on their heels, saving their quadriceps for Thursday. They will ask the offense to blow the doors off in the first 3 quarters; throttle down in the 4th after victory is in hand. Get a quarter's worth of head start on the rest/recovery for Thursday. It'll be Rams 35+ versus whatever TB put together to try and keep up with them. Look like over to me, if you think TB can score 2+ touchdowns..
 
Pyppurs said:
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Top team - NE 3-0 vs 0-3 PIT, 0-3 MIA, 0-3 NYJ
2nd top team - DAL 3-0 vs 1-2 NYG, 0-3 WAS, 0-3 MIA
3rd top team - SF 3-0 vs 1-2 TB, 0-3 CIN, 0-3 PIT

Bottom team - MIA 0-3 vs 2-1 BAL, 3-0 NE, 3-0 DAL
2nd bottom team - NYJ 0-3 vs 3-0 BUF, 1-2 CLE (with backup QB), 3-0 NE
3rd bottom team - PIT 0-3 vs 3-0 NE, 2-1 SEA, 3-0 SF (with backup QB)

Top 3 teams have played a combined 2-25 schedule, bottom 3 a combined 23-4 schedule. Which teams have their record because of the quality (or lack thereof) they have faced? Buffalo are 3-0 against 1-8 teams
 
This seems like a very tricky week to me. Expect a couple surprises. Clev, Car and Arz are 3 dogs that have my attention. SD gonna be a popular pick for survivor polls.
 
Yeah I'm torn b/w Chargers or Rams for Survivor pool. LAC seem too easy but they are a little beat up & typically don't fare well as a road fave. Granted they are playing the 2019 Dolphins but every swinging dick will be on them this week.
 
Zeke said:
Yeah I'm torn b/w Chargers or Rams for Survivor pool. LAC seem too easy but they are a little beat up & typically don't fare well as a road fave. Granted they are playing the 2019 Dolphins but every swinging dick will be on them this week.
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Colts?

if ur between those 2 go with LAC...its a tough week, lots of toss up games, take the gimme
 
Was thinking Colts, but SD a better pick long term. Looking ahead to week 10, Colts play Mia at home. Would prefer to save colts for week 10 as there are not a lot of good options that week.
 
Yeah LAC doesn't have a cakewalk in the future & I could see the Rams losing a game totally out of the blue. This is a historically bad Miami team, may as well play it safe. Although I do have them +17.
 
Inspekdah said:
How the Steeler’s could be favored vs anyone is insane. The 9ers turned it over 6 times and still, won, almost covered. Teams -4 in turnover differential were 0-45 before that. And these were careless turnovers nothing the defense forced. It was a beat down if not for those TOs. Bengals should win SU.
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The biggest mismatch I see is Pitt DL versus Cincy OL. That dude TJ Watt has owned Bobby Hart and kinda overdue for a breakout
 
Cards/Seahawks, Ravens/Browns, and Steelers/Bengals are division openers for all six teams. I like the spot for the Cards with Seahawks looking ahead to hosting Rams on Thursday. Tough way to open division play for Seattle.
 
I agree. And the Seattle line keep climbing. I believe it opened 4-ish, now 5.5. NFW that's sharp money pushing that line up. More likely public fading a team who just lost to a newbie QB. Zona is tempting me.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Some things to consider going into the Bills/Patriots game nobody has touched on yet.

Bills D

Bills lost DT Harrison Phillips for the season. Much of the Bills success at the dl can be attributed to their ability to rotate players in. He didn't have big numbers but be was having a good season spelling Star & Oliver. Having fresh pass rushers is something I'd prefer vs Brady.

As I said before I'm very high on Tre White- he should be a household name. Hyde/Poyer are solid so the Patriots will pick on the slot once again. Last week Cincy had success (Auden Tate 10 targets, 6-88yds), NYG had nobody and week 1 Crowder had like 18 targets. Belichick is going to find that weakness and Brady will exploit it. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Jacoby Myers get 10 targets.

Edelman is question mark so White will get a heavier workload. Develin out may be the biggest injury on either side to a run game that hasn't done much of anything. Interested to see if they will just run Sony out of a 1 back set when he's been less than stellar.



Bills offense

Jury still out on Allen, but I will say the kid is a gamer. Turnover gifted Cincy a very short field but he also marched them down to score when he needed to. Beasley/Brown are both outperforming what I expected. That being said, Gilmore is going to erase Brown this game. They have done a great job of spreading the ball around, so hopefully that continues. I really like most of the playcalling, though there were a couple designed runs that I thought were terrible plays. Not sure if Allen audibled into them, but that can stop asap. Gore played as well as he can, there were 2 big runs that 75% of the rbs in the league would have scored on...he's just too old and slow. Singletary needs to come back as he provides the spark to the backfield. I don't think Buffalo has much of a chance at a su win without him.

Waiting on today's news about Singletary and also ol Feliciano, who has been great but injured his neck last week. I think the line is about right, looks to be great weather again. I'm very worried about the offense turning the ball over, and think this is a game where despite injuries Brady moves the ball. I don't think I can endorse a wager on Buffalo this week.
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Y’all got a straight GAMER in Tredavious White. Good locker guy too
 
Kinda surprised how differently we seeing that Bucs/rams game. I really don’t think rams scoring 30+, the second half of the giants game notwithstanding Bowles has that Bucs d playing incredibly well imo.

Bucs have completely shut down mccaffery on a short week road game, imo they played shanny niners offense better than anyone else has (I’m willing to concede a little since week 1 was basically pre-season but still thought the Bucs d looked strong), they were totally shutting down Barkley until he got hurt (8 rushes for only 10 yards and 4 catches for 27 yards, I’d say that is bottling him up).

I just don’t feel like rams offense is anywhere close to the powerhouse they were last season. Even w the return of Kupp which obviously huge they not the same. Teams now have a blueprint for defending them and while nobody gonna execute it to the level pats did teams obviously have devised schemes that slowing rams down. Now it on mcvay to adjust Back but to this point he hasn’t really done it imo. Certainly not saying they bad, just not the team that struck fear into DC’s. Imo the mid 20s much more reasonable expectation this year for their output on a weakly basis, not the 30+ they were hanging every week last year.

On the other side rams defense has done a good job keeping everything in front of them and not getting gashed w the big passing plays Bucs need to succeed, shamus is simply not consistently accurate enough to have many long drives where ya gotta pick up 3rd downs!! Despite the 37 pass attempts last week Bucs have seemed to realize the less throws Winston makes the better, his attempts are down 7 throws per game even with the 37 last week. You can run on the rams and I fully expect Tampa to do so, rams being slow starters will allow Bucs to stick w the run early imo.

Ultimately as long as rams don’t jump on them fast out the gates which hasn’t been their mo I don’t think they score more than 27. Yes if rams come out and get a early 2 score lead all this goes out the window cause if Bucs playing from way behind it will Force Winston to throw a lot and things will steamroll. In that situation I’d have to hope for a 34-14 type of score but I think odds are pretty decent this more like a 27-17 ish type game. Imo 20 is close to Bucs ceiling.
 
C-MAN said:
This seems like a very tricky week to me. Expect a couple surprises. Clev, Car and Arz are 3 dogs that have my attention. SD gonna be a popular pick for survivor polls.
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I been looking at that total in Arizona but having a hard time coming up w a number i feel good about. I think zona will absolutely have success throwing between the 20s, just not sure if they will be able to cash the red zone chances? which I think is always gonna be a issue w that offense.,

Seattle has been throwing almost 10 more times a game than last season but will that continue here? I still think they would prefer to run more and you can basically do whatever you want vs this cardinals d!!

There lot of things I like about the over but can’t help but think Carroll would be wise to use his offense to help his d and simply keep Cardinals off the field. Think this total is entirely dependent on how seachickens choose to play it, if they comfy gettin into a shootout we could see 60+ in this game! If they go conservative and attempt to eat clock could stay under. Lol. Tough one.
 
twinkie13 said:
Anyone like the Saints dogged in the Dome?
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Cowherd does.

I’ve been taking lot of crap from ppl for saying teddy b isn’t much a drop off from brees at this point. I think they very similar since saints have become a total dink and dunk offense. Teddy is very capable running the offense, sure they prob lose something in the field general/command of offense area, not cause teddy b is bad so much, just that brees is one of best ever in this regard.

Dallas totally shut the brees lead version down last season. As crazy as it sounds teddy b might actually be better served here cause his legs can help avoid the pass rush. Saints d been excellent but imo their strength is getting after the qb, they are allowing 5.1 per rush and I think Dallas oline/run game could be a real problem for them. My perception is saints defense Is more fast than stout so this could be a game boys lean on them heavy w Zeke and the big boys up front. I lean Dallas but kinda feel like they daring me to play them w that -2.5 line!
 
Good post. You think Teddy has pocket awareness....I’m so used to see Drew stepping up, while Teddy seems to retreat?
 
NOTEBOOK: Stafford added to injury report (hip)
twentyman

Tim Twentyman
SENIOR WRITER
Lions starting quarterback Matthew Stafford popped up on Friday’s injury report with a hip injury that limited him in practice. The Lions listed the 10-year veteran as questionable to play Sunday vs. Kansas City.

Stafford has started 131 straight contests dating back to 2011, the third longest active streak in the NFL behind Philip Rivers (211) and Matt Ryan (150).
 
twinkie13 said:
Good post. You think Teddy has pocket awareness....I’m so used to see Drew stepping up, while Teddy seems to retreat?
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Obviously Nowhere close to level of brees’s. lot of guys with athleticism tend to do that it seems. Havnt really seen him enough since he got hurt to say, might be he sketchy since the injury i dunno?

Might just need some more game action to get comfortable. I liked him before the injury and think he can be a solid starting qb in this league, obviously saints do as well to pay him what they did (highest paid backup in the league isn’t he?)...

I really do wanna be on Dallas here but im hesitant. Been hearing a lot of saints love on podcast and from the tv bobble heads which kinda makes me feel better, lol.
 
Frank Costanza said:
NOTEBOOK: Stafford added to injury report (hip)
twentyman

Tim Twentyman
SENIOR WRITER
Lions starting quarterback Matthew Stafford popped up on Friday’s injury report with a hip injury that limited him in practice. The Lions listed the 10-year veteran as questionable to play Sunday vs. Kansas City.

Stafford has started 131 straight contests dating back to 2011, the third longest active streak in the NFL behind Philip Rivers (211) and Matt Ryan (150).
Click to expand...

Oh wow. Gotta assume he be good to go. Of his many faults toughness isn’t one of them. I’m a total square here tho, I love kc -6.5. Mahomes and that offense on a fast track just seems like bad news for any d.
 
Havnt really seen anyone discussing this but does anyone else think saints losing Ingram kinda took a level of physicality away from their offense? Murry has not filled that role at all as im sure they thought he would (2 carries last week in a game they shoulda leaned heavily on power running in second half! Lol).. I really feel that the difference in this Dallas game, boys have the ability to be incredibly physical and think that will ultimately wear saints down.

Consequently I think Ingram was a great pickup for the ravens!! I was almost talked off ravens this week by guys I respect here and talk to other places but the more i look the more I’m still convinced ravens the right side. Kinda tried to talk myself into over instead but not sure that the right move., clowns and baker gonna have to show me.
 
Agree on Ingram. He seems to be running at an even nastier level with the Ravens, intent on dealing out more punishment than he's taking.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Agree on Ingram. He seems to be running at an even nastier level with the Ravens, intent on dealing out more punishment than he's taking.
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Pretty crazy how far he has come. I seem to recall not thinking a whole lot of him early in his career but by the time he left saints he had become a beast.
 
I just don't see the Lions keeping up here. Even if Slay is a go, he's clearly not going to be peak condition. Best chance Detroit has is to run KJ 25+ which they won't do. I have a hard time seeing a low scoring game
 
The overreaction for the Giants is insane.

Yes Skins looked terrible vs the Bears. Bears have a vicious D tho, Giants are a completely different story. I think Keenum and the pass attack get back on track. Skins can prep for DJ which the anyhow garbage Bucs couldn‘t. No Saquon is a big deal
 
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