Week 4 Lookahead Lines/Openers and Discussion

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Thanks to @B.A.R. for the assist with some of this!

Multiple Lookaheads this week

Line to the left is the Westgate Lookahead, Line in the middle was the 5DImes Lookahead, Line to the Right and Bolded is The BetOnline Opener


Green Bay -2 / -3.5/ -4 (-115)
Houston OFF/ OFF/ -4
Baltimore -3.5/ -3.5/ -5.5
NY Giants -2/ -2/ -3 (-105)
LA Chargers -16.5/ -16.5 / -16.5 (-115)
Indianapolis -6/ -6/ -6 (-115)
Kansas City -4.5/ -4.5/ -6.5
New England -6.5 / -7/ -7
Atlanta -4.5 / -4.5 / -5.5
LA Rams -9.5/ -9.5/ OFF (Was -9 earlier today)
Seattle -3 (-120)/ --4 (-115)
Chicago -3/ -3/ -2.5 (-115)
Denver -3/ -3.5 (-105)/ -3
Dallas -2.5/ -3 (-105)/ -3 (-130)
Pittsburgh -3.5/ -3.5 / -4.5

Bye: Jets and 49ers

Chiefs get an uptick despite Lions looking solid. No real other movers.
 
How the Steeler’s could be favored vs anyone is insane. The 9ers turned it over 6 times and still, won, almost covered. Teams -4 in turnover differential were 0-45 before that. And these were careless turnovers nothing the defense forced. It was a beat down if not for those TOs. Bengals should win SU.
 
Inspekdah said:
How the Steeler’s could be favored vs anyone is insane. The 9ers turned it over 6 times and still, won, almost covered. Teams -4 in turnover differential were 0-45 before that. And these were careless turnovers nothing the defense forced. It was a beat down if not for those TOs. Bengals should win SU.
Click to expand...

Niners killed me w those red zone turnovers, lost the over by a half stinking point. They shoulda won by 20!!
 
Raiders back on road in another early game, they showed no heart today, colts run game should beat the rest of the life out of them.
 
Initial thoughts:

I actually like my Eagles...this team should be 3-0 if they could catch the damn ball. Tought spot for sure but getting more than a fg in a game they could absolutely win is tempting.

Agree that Baltimore has a big rebound week....a road game in Baltimore is exactly what the Browns don't need right now

I'm not super sold on Houston...if that line gets closer to a TD ill be taking the points. I said it last week I believe in Kyle Allen; just by being decent he allows that roster to succeed. Hope the public gets on the home favorite so I can get some more value

KC or nothing vs Detroit...Lions are due for a loss. I am not a believer, sorry BAR, my boys handed them the game yesterday in ways KC wont

Got the Pats at -6 in a GOY line. Looks like I got solid value...7.5 is high but I do think Buffalo is fools gold. They might bet better than I thought, but still lets not overreact to beating 3 of the worst teams in the NFL

Fade Oakland on the road at less than a TD? Hell yes. That team is in a bad place

Another chance to fade Miami under 20? Gotta take it.

4.5 is a ton of points for a team who has looked as shitty as Atlanta. Tennesee was garbage last week but that was a road game on a short week vs a strong defense. Too many points here.

Am I crazy to like the Giants at -3? Daniel Jones genuinely looks good. 3 may be too many points to lay in this game though; should be pretty ugly and could be a 3 point game

Tampa's offense woke up, albeit at home vs a crappy Giants defense. Cant imagine they don't put up some points in LA tho. Over 50.5?

Who is Seattle to be laying 4 on the road to anyone right now?

Minnesota/Chicago should be a dog fight. No feel on that one really. Under 38 would be my only play

Denver -3??? Cant go against Minshew Magic though. Likely a stay away, but Jax ML might have value in a game that I really do think is a coin flip

Dallas -3...I don't usually like road favorites, but I think Seattle lost more than New Orleans won yesterday. Bridgewater still doesn't pass the D-wow Eye Test. Dallas won't let him dink and dunk to Kamara all day. I'm genuinely impressed with what Dallas is doing as much as I hate that team. I think this line is somewhat of a gift bc of how NO played; Dallas by 6+

god help us with that MNF game. Not touching it.
 
Inspekdah said:
How the Steeler’s could be favored vs anyone is insane. The 9ers turned it over 6 times and still, won, almost covered. Teams -4 in turnover differential were 0-45 before that. And these were careless turnovers nothing the defense forced. It was a beat down if not for those TOs. Bengals should win SU.
Click to expand...

"
Recency Effect Definition
Recency Effect
The recency effect is an order of presentation effect that occurs when more recent information is better remembered and receives greater weight in forming a judgment than does earlier-presented information. Recency effects in social psychology have been most thoroughly studied in impression formation research. Typically, researchers investigate how impressions are formed on the basis of sequentially presented information. For example, a recency effect occurs if a person who is described in terms of three positive traits followed by three negative traits is subsequently evaluated more negatively than is a person described by exactly the same traits but presented in a reverse order (negative traits followed by positive traits)."
 
2daBank said:
Niners killed me w those red zone turnovers, lost the over by a half stinking point. They shoulda won by 20!!
Click to expand...

I was heavily invested in -6. Should have been able to count my winnings at halftime. Literally left 17-21 points on the board with careless turnovers inside the oppo 10.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
"
Recency Effect Definition
Recency Effect
The recency effect is an order of presentation effect that occurs when more recent information is better remembered and receives greater weight in forming a judgment than does earlier-presented information. Recency effects in social psychology have been most thoroughly studied in impression formation research. Typically, researchers investigate how impressions are formed on the basis of sequentially presented information. For example, a recency effect occurs if a person who is described in terms of three positive traits followed by three negative traits is subsequently evaluated more negatively than is a person described by exactly the same traits but presented in a reverse order (negative traits followed by positive traits)."
Click to expand...

I dropped a 0-45 trend for you. All you do is cap recency in your articles.
 
D-Woww said:
Initial thoughts:

I actually like my Eagles...this team should be 3-0 if they could catch the damn ball. Tought spot for sure but getting more than a fg in a game they could absolutely win is tempting.

Agree that Baltimore has a big rebound week....a road game in Baltimore is exactly what the Browns don't need right now

I'm not super sold on Houston...if that line gets closer to a TD ill be taking the points. I said it last week I believe in Kyle Allen; just by being decent he allows that roster to succeed. Hope the public gets on the home favorite so I can get some more value

KC or nothing vs Detroit...Lions are due for a loss. I am not a believer, sorry BAR, my boys handed them the game yesterday in ways KC wont

Got the Pats at -6 in a GOY line. Looks like I got solid value...7.5 is high but I do think Buffalo is fools gold. They might bet better than I thought, but still lets not overreact to beating 3 of the worst teams in the NFL

Fade Oakland on the road at less than a TD? Hell yes. That team is in a bad place

Another chance to fade Miami under 20? Gotta take it.

4.5 is a ton of points for a team who has looked as shitty as Atlanta. Tennesee was garbage last week but that was a road game on a short week vs a strong defense. Too many points here.

Am I crazy to like the Giants at -3? Daniel Jones genuinely looks good. 3 may be too many points to lay in this game though; should be pretty ugly and could be a 3 point game

Tampa's offense woke up, albeit at home vs a crappy Giants defense. Cant imagine they don't put up some points in LA tho. Over 50.5?

Who is Seattle to be laying 4 on the road to anyone right now?

Minnesota/Chicago should be a dog fight. No feel on that one really. Under 38 would be my only play

Denver -3??? Cant go against Minshew Magic though. Likely a stay away, but Jax ML might have value in a game that I really do think is a coin flip

Dallas -3...I don't usually like road favorites, but I think Seattle lost more than New Orleans won yesterday. Bridgewater still doesn't pass the D-wow Eye Test. Dallas won't let him dink and dunk to Kamara all day. I'm genuinely impressed with what Dallas is doing as much as I hate that team. I think this line is somewhat of a gift bc of how NO played; Dallas by 6+

god help us with that MNF game. Not touching it.
Click to expand...

Good stuff.

Patriot's have not allowed a TD this season defensively. Pats have been preparing for Bills for 2 weeks as we know they had a bye last week basically.
 
Inspekdah said:
I dropped a 0-45 trend for you. All you do is cap recency in your articles.
Click to expand...

Your trend had nothing to do beyond what was happening in the most recent game lol.
I connect to stats or find an explanation that goes beyond just recapping last game’s results and expecting the same.
Obviously prior results are crucial and I love your point about New England (season stats not just recent results). I think its important to look beyond a single game because there‘s always a lot of variety from week to week
 
Inspekdah said:
I was heavily invested in -6. Should have been able to count my winnings at halftime. Literally left 17-21 points on the board with careless turnovers inside the oppo 10.
Click to expand...

Not to mention the 6 points jimmy g handed Steelers w the picks in own end, incredibly sloppy game, actually a miracle niners won, not sure I ever recall a team winning w 6 turnovers! Screwed both of us tho!
 
D-Woww said:
The browns are gonna be good with this core, it just isn't gonna happen this year. We (the public) jumped the gun a little. they need him out, but get they an offensive minded coach and theyre gonna be fine. Hes single handedly holding them back at the moment
Click to expand...

I’m starting to think I might have ate crow a little early last year when admitting I was wrong about baker, if anything he damn sure isn’t gonna turn out to be the best in that class so I’m back to being right he shouldn’t have went #1!! Lol... I have my doubts he will ever be all that great.
 
D-Woww said:
Initial thoughts:

I actually like my Eagles...this team should be 3-0 if they could catch the damn ball. Tought spot for sure but getting more than a fg in a game they could absolutely win is tempting.

Agree that Baltimore has a big rebound week....a road game in Baltimore is exactly what the Browns don't need right now

I'm not super sold on Houston...if that line gets closer to a TD ill be taking the points. I said it last week I believe in Kyle Allen; just by being decent he allows that roster to succeed. Hope the public gets on the home favorite so I can get some more value

KC or nothing vs Detroit...Lions are due for a loss. I am not a believer, sorry BAR, my boys handed them the game yesterday in ways KC wont

Got the Pats at -6 in a GOY line. Looks like I got solid value...7.5 is high but I do think Buffalo is fools gold. They might bet better than I thought, but still lets not overreact to beating 3 of the worst teams in the NFL

Fade Oakland on the road at less than a TD? Hell yes. That team is in a bad place

Another chance to fade Miami under 20? Gotta take it.

4.5 is a ton of points for a team who has looked as shitty as Atlanta. Tennesee was garbage last week but that was a road game on a short week vs a strong defense. Too many points here.

Am I crazy to like the Giants at -3? Daniel Jones genuinely looks good. 3 may be too many points to lay in this game though; should be pretty ugly and could be a 3 point game

Tampa's offense woke up, albeit at home vs a crappy Giants defense. Cant imagine they don't put up some points in LA tho. Over 50.5?

Who is Seattle to be laying 4 on the road to anyone right now?

Minnesota/Chicago should be a dog fight. No feel on that one really. Under 38 would be my only play

Denver -3??? Cant go against Minshew Magic though. Likely a stay away, but Jax ML might have value in a game that I really do think is a coin flip

Dallas -3...I don't usually like road favorites, but I think Seattle lost more than New Orleans won yesterday. Bridgewater still doesn't pass the D-wow Eye Test. Dallas won't let him dink and dunk to Kamara all day. I'm genuinely impressed with what Dallas is doing as much as I hate that team. I think this line is somewhat of a gift bc of how NO played; Dallas by 6+

god help us with that MNF game. Not touching it.
Click to expand...

Should be? You are what you’d record says you are. Eagles didn’t look impressive in any those games but they are also a mash unit: doubt they get very healthy before Thursday but spread already 5 and tough to lay w packers new defensive minded approach. That said lions on the road just hung 27 so tough to think pack can’t score mid 20s which I think be tough for philly to match. Not sure on that one but can’t see myself backing Philly.

There no way I can back a rookie on the road at Denver, at some point that donks pass rush is gonna show up ain’t it?

Everyone’s offense wakes up against Gmen, at LA a much tougher task to score points imo. What was more puzzling to me was Bucs defense looking so horrid vs the rookie, that would be the Bucs unit I would expect to look better, not the offense.,

Dallas looks fantastic but to me teddy b basically looks a lot like Brees at this point, same dink and dunk offense and Dallas shut it down last year w Brees so yea gotta like the boys..

I couldn’t lay that number w chargers, hard to argue fading fish but chargers notorious for playing down to comp.

Titans should be able to punish atl in the ground game but man mariota stinks! Looks to me like Him and shamus were the worst qb draft class in some time., def think titans can win in trenches tho so points or nothing imo.
 
Dunno what’s not to be sold on Houston? Didn’t they win 11 straight games or something last year? Bottom line is when they give Watson time him and those weapons are unstoppable, adding stills was huge imo. Do panthers have the pass rushers to get after watson? I really don’t think so, and if not they will chew up panthers secondary. The panthers qb looked good but how much of that was cardinals crappy defense??

Yes O’Brien a crappy coach and the pass protection needs to be better but Houston is set where it matters most these days, qb and guys to throw it too.
 
Inspekdah said:
Good stuff.

Patriot's have not allowed a TD this season defensively. Pats have been preparing for Bills for 2 weeks as we know they had a bye last week basically.
Click to expand...

I think Allen’s legs could be incredibly important picking up 1st downs this week. Bills defense ain’t too shabby either. Certainly not saying I’m looking to fade pats tho. Lol
 
2daBank said:
I think Allen’s legs could be incredibly important picking up 1st downs this week. Bills defense ain’t too shabby either. Certainly not saying I’m looking to fade pats tho. Lol
Click to expand...

I won't fade them cause I'm a Pats fan but when I saw a 7.5 on Bovada there would've been only one way I would go with that. Feels to me a classic spot where the Pats blow it after three ass kickings. Granted Buffalo has played nobody to speak of but their schedule has been similar to that of the Pats.
 
Zeke said:
I won't fade them cause I'm a Pats fan but when I saw a 7.5 on Bovada there would've been only one way I would go with that. Feels to me a classic spot where the Pats blow it after three ass kickings. Granted Buffalo has played nobody to speak of but their schedule has been similar to that of the Pats.
Click to expand...

Gonna be a hell of a game. I got -6.5 on Saturday and may very well take +7.5 or higher; pats by a td exactly seems pretty likely.

Huge test for the Bills. Are they legit, or did they just beat bad teams? I am so biased against Allen because I thought he was gonna be the worst qb ever selected in round 1 and I can't shake my negative feelings about his play, but credit to the guy, hes gotten it done this year. I still do think the other shoe will drop with him, but hes proved me wrong so far
 
D-Woww said:
The browns are gonna be good with this core, it just isn't gonna happen this year. We (the public) jumped the gun a little. they need him out, but get they an offensive minded coach and theyre gonna be fine. Hes single handedly holding them back at the moment
Click to expand...
It's the oline more than anything

Baker on quick throws has been unreal this year, anytime he holds over 2.5 seconds his numbers are abysmal

They badly need to trade for trent Williams
 
Think the Bill's are a real bad matchup for the pats

Not saying I'm on them yet, but that d is legit and the secondary is great

If edelman doesnt play they can really focus on flash too

Their run defense I'd stout as well, and their safeties play the run better than most linebackers

Concern is on offense, allen still lacks weapons, but hes playing way better than last year, barnwell has an article where he points out why, they are making him throw deep way less, his completion % is actually higher than expected based on his throws, and accuracy was his huge concern. For him to win this game I think 2dabank had it right about his legs.

He needs to get them an extra 3+ drive extended first down scrambles to have a chance in keeping it close imo, not sure if that's possible against bellichek, whos gonna throw so many wild looks at him, hell he might have someone qb spying every play and allen wont know who it is pre snap every play
 
Kind of unlucky for buffalo this game is in september, their best chance vs the Pats would be a shitty weather or snow type game where it's all fought at the LOS
 
guaranteeed said:
Think the Bill's are a real bad matchup for the pats

Not saying I'm on them yet, but that d is legit and the secondary is great

If edelman doesnt play they can really focus on flash too

Their run defense I'd stout as well, and their safeties play the run better than most linebackers

Concern is on offense, allen still lacks weapons, but hes playing way better than last year, barnwell has an article where he points out why, they are making him throw deep way less, his completion % is actually higher than expected based on his throws, and accuracy was his huge concern. For him to win this game I think 2dabank had it right about his legs.

He needs to get them an extra 3+ drive extended first down scrambles to have a chance in keeping it close imo, not sure if that's possible against bellichek, whos gonna throw so many wild looks at him, hell he might have someone qb spying every play and allen wont know who it is pre snap every play
Click to expand...

Fair to say these are probably the 2 best coached defenses in the league?
 
guaranteeed said:
Think the Bill's are a real bad matchup for the pats

Not saying I'm on them yet, but that d is legit and the secondary is great

If edelman doesnt play they can really focus on flash too

Their run defense I'd stout as well, and their safeties play the run better than most linebackers

Concern is on offense, allen still lacks weapons, but hes playing way better than last year, barnwell has an article where he points out why, they are making him throw deep way less, his completion % is actually higher than expected based on his throws, and accuracy was his huge concern. For him to win this game I think 2dabank had it right about his legs.

He needs to get them an extra 3+ drive extended first down scrambles to have a chance in keeping it close imo, not sure if that's possible against bellichek, whos gonna throw so many wild looks at him, hell he might have someone qb spying every play and allen wont know who it is pre snap every play
Click to expand...

The Bills have scored ONE offensive TD in their past 4 games vs the Pats. Yes, their offense is the concern in this game against the Pats. The Bills have a top 3 defense in the league (if not number 1), but the Pats are still going to score 17 at the very least, hell even if it’s 14 pts the Bills will have to actually score more than one TD to win the game...can they is the question.
 
Brady is also now 30-3 vs the Bills in his career and at least one of those 3 losses was in a season finale where Brady came out at the half. And if I’m not mistaken one of those 3 losses was the 2003 home opener for Buffalo where they won 31-0 (the Pats won the rematch in week 17 31-0).
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Well Cleveland has also had like 20ish different starting quarterbacks since then
Click to expand...
Random question for a younger guy...

As someone that was prolly under 10 years old in 1999...

Does it ever occur to you that the Ravens are really the old Browns?
 
Some things to consider going into the Bills/Patriots game nobody has touched on yet.

Bills D

Bills lost DT Harrison Phillips for the season. Much of the Bills success at the dl can be attributed to their ability to rotate players in. He didn't have big numbers but be was having a good season spelling Star & Oliver. Having fresh pass rushers is something I'd prefer vs Brady.

As I said before I'm very high on Tre White- he should be a household name. Hyde/Poyer are solid so the Patriots will pick on the slot once again. Last week Cincy had success (Auden Tate 10 targets, 6-88yds), NYG had nobody and week 1 Crowder had like 18 targets. Belichick is going to find that weakness and Brady will exploit it. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Jacoby Myers get 10 targets.

Edelman is question mark so White will get a heavier workload. Develin out may be the biggest injury on either side to a run game that hasn't done much of anything. Interested to see if they will just run Sony out of a 1 back set when he's been less than stellar.



Bills offense

Jury still out on Allen, but I will say the kid is a gamer. Turnover gifted Cincy a very short field but he also marched them down to score when he needed to. Beasley/Brown are both outperforming what I expected. That being said, Gilmore is going to erase Brown this game. They have done a great job of spreading the ball around, so hopefully that continues. I really like most of the playcalling, though there were a couple designed runs that I thought were terrible plays. Not sure if Allen audibled into them, but that can stop asap. Gore played as well as he can, there were 2 big runs that 75% of the rbs in the league would have scored on...he's just too old and slow. Singletary needs to come back as he provides the spark to the backfield. I don't think Buffalo has much of a chance at a su win without him.

Waiting on today's news about Singletary and also ol Feliciano, who has been great but injured his neck last week. I think the line is about right, looks to be great weather again. I'm very worried about the offense turning the ball over, and think this is a game where despite injuries Brady moves the ball. I don't think I can endorse a wager on Buffalo this week.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Browns in a perfect buy low spot...if you dare.

Rams defense absolutely manhandled the Browns line. I don't put the Ravens defense in the same category. I think the Browns defense is good enough to keep them in this game. Cleveland needs to smarten up and use Chubb better
Click to expand...

After going over this one more in depth, I am gonna be on the Browns.

Everything you said, plus I'm not ready to crown Lamar a superstar bc he crushed the dolphins and played pretty well vs AZ (even though zona was in that game the whole way)....then he was fien vs the prevent defense last week, but KC held him in check. Clevelands d very well can do the same.

Lamar & co are fun, but lets forget week 1, which I think is still in many bettors minds, that isn't gonna happen on a consistent basis. They are much closer to the ground and pound team when he cant throw on the Dolphins who wouldn't be competitive in the XFL

I expect a fg game either way, will certainly be taking the points. Maybe a ML sprinkle...Cleveland couldn't have started worse, but there is still plenty of talent there
 
VirginiaCavs said:
So if you like Buffalo take the under
Click to expand...

Wish I woulda jumped on at 43.5 and just bought the hook cause I have 44 as the high side here. Unfortunately I waited and now it has got way away from me. Don’t think I can touch at 41.5.,

I need a total too, I’m in a total survivor contest that pays 1k, already down to 37 ppl from a start of 450! Up to this point it been super easy for me, having a harder time identifying one I love this week. Still capping but already know im not gonna feel as good as I have the previous weeks! Lol.

Any suggestions????
 
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