Week 4 Line Predictions (Merged W/ Stacks') AND OPENING LINES FROM PINNY/CRIS

UM will be a popular pick for a letdown spot here against fondy's badgers...I expect the line to be 12-13....it is a lot of points, but remember UM has revenge on their mind after last year, that was a bitter pill for them to swallow, they will be ready and had a relatively wasy 4th quarter today. Still undecided on this one but will lean towards taking the points if it is over 12-13.
 
GT- Would love to see single digits...GT 4-1 ATS v. UVA

NEVADA- Looking to give -6 or -7 at most I am hoping...7-1 ATS @ home as a favorite

IOWA- Under 3 TDs would be fabulous....16-3 ATS as DD fav
LOU- Is -17 to opptimistic?....9-3 ATS before a bye week
Mizzou- Similiar spread in the Rutgers game this week -16 or -17 I might bite...2-10 ATS as a road dog(OHIO)

WVU- Line will be -23/26 could be a let down spot not sure though...4-1 ATS

SC- @ home off a close win over Wofford look for Spurrier to have his boys ready for a blowout win. Under 3 TDs I'm hooked

UGA- Looks like an easy shutout here so question is, how many points can the bulldogs score. I say around 24ish...Think the line will open up at -13/14 and I will hammer it...6-1 ATS v. B10

VT- Great tream to play ATS with that defense agaisnt inferrior opponents. I see a 38-13 game so if the spread is right for that score I will play it @ home in Blacksburgh...6-2 ATS as DD home fav

WAS- Home against a young UCLA team. Under -6 and I like it I think....ouch bad trend here for WAS 1-6 ATS as home fav

ARK- @ home against a team that lost to Tulane?!!??!? A break down in defense almost cost the razorbacks this week look for Nutt to get his boys ready for this conference game. Single digits would be a gift...9-2 ATS before bye week
LSU- Under -28 and I will pound this against the green wave. They should be on a high from beating Misst. Hah! Not so fast my friend your not that good....BLOWOUT!......5-1 ATS as DD fav
BOISE ST- @ home; smurf turf and at night. Would like single digits, maybe I'm off my rocker...8-1 ATS @ home L9

USC- AZ is a fraud and get way too much credit for "potential" luckily I have not bought into this and they get rolled. Under 4 TDs I will play this, Maybe.8-3 ATS v. AZ
 
Last edited:
TroyStacks said:
USC- AZ is a fraud and get way too much credit for "potential" luckily I have not bought into this and they get rolled. Under 4 TDs I will play this, Maybe.
Click to expand...

A fraud!?!?

How dare you sir!:an_roll_laugh:

You must be ignoring how we're handling Stephen F Austin (Div I -AA) in Tucson 14-10 in the 3rd!

The audacity.:drinking:

seriously though, its most likely USC will be a 28 point fav
 
purposely not touching those rival conference games unless i can be swayed by someone with knowledge i.e. bar and michgan, fuck you for winning that too hahahaha j/p man you killed 13-2-1 thats pretty fucking sweet man
 
SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE: Week 4 Line Predictions (Merged With Stacks' Thread)

Week 4 Lines:

101 virginia
102 georgia tech -17

103 northwestern
104 nevada -6

105 wisconsin
106 michigan -14


107 minnesota
108 purdue -2


109 miami ohio
110 syracuse -10

111 ohio
112 missouri -9


113 louisville -9
114 kansas state


115 marshall
116 tennessee -27


117 north carolina
118 clemson -19


119 kentucky
120 florida -25


121 iowa -24
122 illinois


123 rice
124 florida state -24

125 buffalo
126 auburn -38


127 kent state
128 bowling green -3


129 tulsa
130 navy -5


131 cincinnati
132 virginia tech -26


133 utah state
134 byu -25

135 penn state
136 ohio state -17


137 iowa state
138 texas -19


139 washington state -13
140 stanford


141 arizona state
142 california -5


143 ucla -1
144 washington


145 connecticut
146 indiana -3


147 central michigan -7
148 eastern michigan


149 air force
150 wyoming -7


151 utep -19
152 new mexico


153 west virginia -19
154 east carolina


155 boston college -8
156 north carolina state

157 colorado
158 georgia -29


159 alabama
160 arkansas pk


161 army
162 baylor -15


163 temple
164 western michigan -26


165 wake forest -9
166 mississippi


167 south florida
168 kansas pk


169 louisiana tech
170 texas am -25


171 mississippi state
172 uab -12


173 tulane
174 lsu -33


175 utah -6
176 san diego state

177 hawaii
178 boise state -9


179 notre dame
180 michigan state -1


181 usc -20
182 arizona


183 oklahoma state
184 houston -4


185 idaho
186 oregon state -18


187 mid tennessee state
188 oklahoma -20


189 florida international
190 maryland -13

191 north texas
192 akron -14

193 florida atlantic
194 south carolina -29


195 troy
196 nebraska -21


197 arkansas state
198 smu -6
 
Last edited:
I won't review what happened yesterday. I'll only focus on Oregon/Oklahoma, and I don't think I can say anything constructive.

oo...North Carolina may be in a letdown spot after their big hardfought win against furman yesterday...45-43. It was a tuffy...

kent st might be a good dog spot against bowling green.

west virginia will crush ECU ats no matter what it is. They're just too good. I think rj has a trend that might just support that...

Same with Louisville against KState. Even if Brohm's not back, I think we can assume his backup will continue the performance he gave against Miami. He just stepped right in...just like the RB position.

Arky St at SMU is another one of those WHOEVER THE DOG IS ml spots. The line should be fun... Who can predict shit versus shit? I say SMU -6 only because they're at home.

Hawaii at boise st. 1st half over. They'll open up absolutely crazy, I'm sure.

Temple may not be in an autofade spot in week 4. Not that I think they'll win, no. But depending on the line, temple might be a good play. Western Michigan can beat UVA, sure. But WMU is no Minny or Louis. If it's another 40 pt spread, I might take Temple.

wake forest at ole miss. wake may well be favored here, though I doubt they should be...

colorado at georgia. UGA -17 again. and I'll play it again. Colorado manage to make a tolerable showing for themselves...actually moving the ball against the vaunted Az St defense...heh. UGA might pitch another shutout. LSU, Auburn, UGA are all viable under plays on any given week.

Maybe I can give thoughtful posts later; these are just my initial reactions. I need to sleep.

Good luck in week 4 fellas.
 
UGA will be at least 20

UM at least 13-14...

OSU at least 17..

the books are much better this year.
 
Gonna be some serious chalk w/ this card....couple interesting matchups, but not many..

Really disappointed we won't get the juicy line w/ ND/MSU now though...

Expect some small chalk there which will get bet up immediately, IMO..

I think Hunt's right...that PSU/tOSU line may come out higher than the 14...books are on their shit but so are we...

I hope to get a 14 w/ Wisky when it comes out and hit it fast in the letdown spot...
 
good point job never thought about that i think houston has regrouped since that almost disasterous week 1 perfomrance at rice
 
WAS- Home against a young UCLA team. Under -6 and I like it I think....ouch bad trend here for WAS 1-6 ATS as home fav


If the Huskies are favored at all here I'll hammer UCLA.......
 
Working on my power rankings and week 4 lines right now. Be back later.

Thanks, Stacks, for posting your thoughts on games to hit.

Love it.

I also posted my 70%+ trend plays (ok, not mine, but Bob Fredericks) for everyone to check out. I think it mentions the UCLA-Wash game.
 
we need to matchup both our threads and go from there on picks....i will start a thread tonite when the lines come out and i will mention my trends and yours together so that we can hammer those asap if they meet the criteria
 
Done with my power ranking adjustments after Week 3.

Here's my top 10 with PR # and Weighted PR (performance over L3Gs) #:

1. USC 106/120
2. Ohio St. 103/108
3. Georgia 100/108.5
4. Auburn 100/104.33
5. Texas 101/103.667
6. Florida 99/106
7. Michigan 99/105
8. LSU 98/111.3
9. Va Tech 97/102.5
10. WVU 97/99.5
 
I'm going to pound the living shit out of Michigan at -14 or less... Wisconsin doesn't have that good of a team, and I was lucky to get a push yesterday. It's a big step up in talent from Bowling Green, Western Illinois, and San Diego State - Wisconsin first 3 opponents. SDST could have won that game yesterday, and the skill positions for Michigan will dominate Wisky.
 
I'm really interested in the Nevada number at home against NW, want to hit Western Michigan (fade Temple) and like Iowa -14 or even -17 or so on the road at Illinois.
 
Fondybadger said:
I'm going to pound the living shit out of Michigan at -14 or less... Wisconsin doesn't have that good of a team, and I was lucky to get a push yesterday. It's a big step up in talent from Bowling Green, Western Illinois, and San Diego State - Wisconsin first 3 opponents. SDST could have won that game yesterday, and the skill positions for Michigan will dominate Wisky.
Click to expand...

Agree. Plus Michigan remembers last year's game.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Might be a live dog w/ HOU at home vs OSU if that number is way outta whack based on performance thus far...
Click to expand...

Totally agree. This is one I am going to hit right away.
 
Fondybadger said:
I'm going to pound the living shit out of Michigan at -14 or less... Wisconsin doesn't have that good of a team, and I was lucky to get a push yesterday. It's a big step up in talent from Bowling Green, Western Illinois, and San Diego State - Wisconsin first 3 opponents. SDST could have won that game yesterday, and the skill positions for Michigan will dominate Wisky.
Click to expand...

It is big reveneg..in fact...this is week 2 outta 3 of all revenge games for Big Blue.

My feeling now is about 13 will be the opener. I like Wisky on defense but not impressed with offense so far. They won't score more than 10 against UM. So, others can base their play on that is my guess.
 
Early Shopping List

Here's the list of teams and lines I'll go look at first:

Nevada
LSU
Ohio State
Georgia Tech
South Carolina
UGA
Va Tech
Boise St
Cal
 
Matador's Line Guesses from Covers

I miss talking with Matador and wish he was here. He always had good line guesses.

101 Virginia
102 Georgia Tech 13/36

103 Northwestern
104 Nevada Reno 8/45

105 Wisconsin
106 Michigan 12/44

107 Minnesota
108 Purdue 3/61

109 Miami, Ohio
110 Syracuse 10/41

111 Ohio
112 Missouri 18/50

113 Louisville 17/56
114 Kansas St

115 Marshall
116 Tennessee 17/40

117 No Carolina
118 Clemson 13/50

119 Kentucky
120 Florida 21/47

121 Iowa 18/42
122 Illinois

123 Rice
124 Florida St 28/44

125 Buffalo
126 Auburn 39/49

127 Kent
128 Bowling Green 6/49

129 Tulsa
130 Navy 2/54

131 Cincinnati
132 Virginia Tech 24/40

133 Utah St
134 BYU 28/50

135 Penn St
136 Ohio St 10/45

137 Iowa St
138 Texas 22/55

139 Washington St 10/50
140 Stanford

141 Arizona St
142 California 6/59

143 UCLA
144 Washington 4/48

145 Connecticut 3/51
146 Indiana

147 Cent Michigan 10/42
148 E Michigan

149 Air Force
150 Wyoming 3/45

151 UTEP 6/49
152 New Mexico

153 W Virginia 20/54
154 E Carolina

155 Boston College 7/42
156 NC State

157 Colorado
158 Georgia 21/35

159 Alabama 3/38
160 Arkansas

161 Army
162 Baylor 10/46

163 Temple
164 W Michigan 24/45

165 Wake Forest
166 Mississippi 3/43

167 South Florida
168 Kansas 3/45

169 La Tech
170 Texas A&M 16/55

171 Miss St
172 UAB 13/34

173 Tulane
174 LSU 31/46

175 Utah 4/38
176 San Diego St

177 Hawaii
178 Boise St 10/53

179 Notre Dame 10/57
180 Michigan St

181 USC
182 Arizona 27/49

183 Oklahoma St 6/52
184 Houston

185 Idaho
186 Oregon St 18/54

187 Mid Tenn St
188 Oklahoma 31/48

189 Florida Int
190 Maryland 17/41

191 No Texas
192 Akron 17/43

193 Florida Atlantic
194 So Carolina 28/45

195 Troy State
196 Nebraska 17/49

197 Arkansas St 6/38
198 SMU
 
TroyStacks said:
so is -14 and better the play on michigan? if so i want to pound it bar
Click to expand...

Wisconsin's offensive line can't pass block very well... Stocco's completion percentage is a joke and they have no go to wide receiver. The Badgers had 12 completions yesterday to 6 different receivers (3 catches by the RB was the most). Defense should be pretty decent still in the Big 10 and I think our punter/kicker is the best combo in the Big 10 if not the nation. I think Michigan is going to be able to stack the line and stop PJ Hill who's been phenominal this season, but he is a redshirt freshmen that didn't travel with the team last year... Think going to the Big House might be a bit intimidating for him?

-14 or better on Michigan I'll be all over them
 
Garf's Line Predictions from Covers (in bold next to Matador's)

Yesterday, was so bad I don't even want to talk or think about it.

101 Virginia
102 Georgia Tech 13/10.5

103 Northwestern
104 Nevada Reno 8/4

105 Wisconsin
106 Michigan 12/15

107 Minnesota
108 Purdue 3/3.5

109 Miami, Ohio
110 Syracuse 10/4

111 Ohio
112 Missouri 18/18

113 Louisville 17/16
114 Kansas St

115 Marshall
116 Tennessee 17/24
117 No Carolina
118 Clemson 13/13

119 Kentucky
120 Florida 21/21.5

121 Iowa 18/17
122 Illinois

123 Rice
124 Florida St 28/27

125 Buffalo
126 Auburn 39/38

127 Kent
128 Bowling Green 6/10

129 Tulsa
130 Navy 2/3

131 Cincinnati
132 Virginia Tech 24/30

133 Utah St
134 BYU 28/24

135 Penn St
136 Ohio St 10/14.5

137 Iowa St
138 Texas 22/20

139 Washington St 10/4.5
140 Stanford

141 Arizona St
142 California 6/7

143 UCLA
144 Washington 4/1

145 Connecticut 3/+8
146 Indiana

147 Cent Michigan 10/PK
148 E Michigan

149 Air Force
150 Wyoming 3/1

151 UTEP 6/3.5
152 New Mexico

153 W Virginia 20/18
154 E Carolina

155 Boston College 7/7
156 NC State

157 Colorado
158 Georgia 21/19

159 Alabama 3/+3
160 Arkansas

161 Army
162 Baylor 10/6

163 Temple
164 W Michigan 24/33

165 Wake Forest
166 Mississippi 3/PK

167 South Florida
168 Kansas 3/3.5

169 La Tech
170 Texas A&M 16/17.5

171 Miss St
172 UAB 13/1.5

173 Tulane
174 LSU 31/33.5

175 Utah 4/2
176 San Diego St

177 Hawaii
178 Boise St 10/16

179 Notre Dame 10/PK
180 Michigan St

181 USC
182 Arizona +27/+19

183 Oklahoma St 6/7.5
184 Houston

185 Idaho
186 Oregon St 18/17

187 Mid Tenn St
188 Oklahoma 31/29

189 Florida Int
190 Maryland 17/20.5

191 No Texas
192 Akron 17/9

193 Florida Atlantic
194 So Carolina 28/31

195 Troy State
196 Nebraska 17/17.5

197 Arkansas St 6/+2.5
198 SMU
 
nice work rj didn't know you could do that thanks.....

fondy-sounds good to me i know you are bar are very objective on your own teams and value your insights on the b10. i will watch for that magic nummber come tonite
 
TroyStacks said:
nice work rj didn't know you could do that thanks.....

fondy-sounds good to me i know you are bar are very objective on your own teams and value your insights on the b10. i will watch for that magic nummber come tonite
Click to expand...

I'm a Mod, so I'm kind of like a demi-god. Fondy and Twita are god since they have admin privileges.

Saw your suggestion and decided just to merge them. Glad you don't mind.
 
Re Temple fade strategy--

I'm all about the Temple, FAU, and Colorado fades.

But, with respect to Temple, I don't know if I'll fade them this week. Yes, they are terrible, but you have to remember that they are going into the MAC next year. The one game they have managed to push ATS is against Buffalo--who isn't as bad as people think or they have been in recent years.

Think Temple will concentrate on playing their upcoming MAC opponents tougher and just prepare themselves for the ass rape from OOCs.

No Temple fade play this week for me.
 
GAM from Covers' Predictions (last after Matador and Garf's)

Order goes Matador, GAR, GAM

101 Virginia
102 Georgia Tech 13/10.5/16

103 Northwestern
104 Nevada Reno 8/4/6

105 Wisconsin
106 Michigan 12/15/18

107 Minnesota
108 Purdue 3/3.5/+2

109 Miami, Ohio
110 Syracuse 10/4/7.5

111 Ohio
112 Missouri 18/18/18.5

113 Louisville 17/16/14
114 Kansas St

115 Marshall
116 Tennessee 17/24/23
117 No Carolina
118 Clemson 13/13/24
an_speechless.gif


119 Kentucky
120 Florida 21/21.5/22.5


121 Iowa 18/17/18
122 Illinois

123 Rice
124 Florida St 28/27/24

125 Buffalo
126 Auburn 39/38/35

127 Kent
128 Bowling Green 6/10/7

129 Tulsa
130 Navy 2/3/+4.5
an_speechless.gif


131 Cincinnati
132 Virginia Tech 24/30/27.5

133 Utah St
134 BYU 28/24/31

135 Penn St
136 Ohio St 10/14.5/15

137 Iowa St
138 Texas 22/20/26

139 Washington St 10/4.5/8
140 Stanford

141 Arizona St
142 California 6/7/8

143 UCLA
144 Washington 4/1/+6
an_speechless.gif


145 Connecticut 3/+8/+3
146 Indiana

147 Cent Michigan 10/PK/11
148 E Michigan

149 Air Force
150 Wyoming 3/1/3

151 UTEP 6/3.5/6
152 New Mexico

153 W Virginia 20/18/23
154 E Carolina

155 Boston College 7/7/12
156 NC State

157 Colorado
158 Georgia 21/19/23

159 Alabama 3/+3/+2
160 Arkansas

161 Army
162 Baylor 10/6/15

163 Temple
164 W Michigan 24/33/23

165 Wake Forest
166 Mississippi 3/PK/+1

167 South Florida
168 Kansas 3/3.5/4.5

169 La Tech
170 Texas A&M 16/17.5/20

171 Miss St
172 UAB 13/1.5/4

173 Tulane
174 LSU 31/33.5/27

175 Utah 4/2/7.5
176 San Diego St

177 Hawaii
178 Boise St 10/16/16

179 Notre Dame 10/PK/+3
an_speechless.gif

180 Michigan St

181 USC
182 Arizona +27/+19/+17

183 Oklahoma St 6/7.5/+3
184 Houston

185 Idaho
186 Oregon St 18/17/15

187 Mid Tenn St
188 Oklahoma 31/29/28

189 Florida Int
190 Maryland 17/20.5/25

191 No Texas
192 Akron 17/9/17

193 Florida Atlantic
194 So Carolina 28/31/23

195 Troy State
196 Nebraska 17/17.5/24
an_speechless.gif


197 Arkansas St 6/+2.5/+6
198 SMU
 
Teams with 3 lined games, that are...

3-0 ATS
Vandy
Auburn
Wyoming
CMU
Ball St
ECU
Syracuse
Louisville

O-3 ATS
Fresno St
FAU
Miss St
Stanford
NIU
Virginia

Next week we should have info on best/worst ATS with at least 3 lined games. There are alot of perfect teams either way with only 2 lined games, but I don't count those.
 
Totals are now out at Pinny...going through them right now.

Haven't played 'em at all this year but went 70+% last year on totals. Maybe this week.
 
this 14.5 stuff for OSU against PSU is not going to happen...it might open there but will quickly get bet to 17 or 18...within the hour.
 
Holy shit,

USC is only a -20 fav?

3 touchdowns to win? Give me a break. This could be my 1st dime play of the year. I would kill to get this one at -20
 
Hunt, are you going to take tOSU over 14?

Personally, I have the line at -17, but want to know.

Think tOSU beats the shit out of PSU and their fans next Saturday.
 
scourge said:
Holy shit,

USC is only a -20 fav?

3 touchdowns to win? Give me a break. This could be my 1st dime play of the year. I would kill to get this one at -20
Click to expand...

These are my predictions based off of one set of PRs. I have another that calls for USC to win by 46.
 
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