WEEK 4 Discussion

KJ · Sep 27, 2013

think they use celsius

braves · Sep 27, 2013

celsius I hope

braves · Sep 27, 2013

kjohnson109 said:
think they use celsius

yeah, I was just messing around

twinkie13 · Sep 27, 2013

TheCashMan said:
Are the players any good or are they just playing well as a team. And within the scheme? Coach making a big impact on that team
How do they match up vs dolphins? Have astrong lean to saints

3 games in and I think the D looks legit. Much is the scheme and some additions(but more scheme)....these guys always fit this type of attack better than what Spags tried last year

If Miami is a fugazi, we will know on Monday. And it will not be pretty IMO.

KJ · Sep 27, 2013

they certainly don't speak american over there

aplous · Sep 27, 2013

just bet Seattle -125......Texans feel like an 8-8 team this year. Andre Johnson banged up....Hawks get the W.

Lexington 125 · Sep 27, 2013

Hawks are a different team on the road. Add the banged up oline and it could be trouble for Lynch, especially if Unger doesn't go.

cogenman · Sep 27, 2013

I'm starting to warm up to the Titans laying only 3 at home to the lowly Jets.

braves · Sep 27, 2013

Lexington 125 said:
Hawks are a different team on the road. Add the banged up oline and it could be trouble for Lynch, especially if Unger doesn't go.

yeah, they weren't overly impressive on the road against carolina.

I'll prolly sit that out, b/c I just don't really like houston. But Seattle has to prove stuff to me on the road before I play them as a fave

Play2win · Sep 27, 2013

RJ Bell:

Steelers (in London) vs Vikings (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Favorite has covered only 3 out of last 12 Steelers games

Big Ben 11-4 ATS off double digit loss

Steelers rushing yards on season have been doubled by opponents’

0-3 teams favorites: 8-19 ATS (from 1989)

Ravens @ Bills (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Bills last 28 games: lost against the spread by a NET 142 points

Bills cluster injuries in secondary could be more meaningful than the average bettor understands.

Bengals @ Browns (+4) -- 1 p.m.

Bengals 11-3-3 ATS on the road

Favorite has won only 1 of last 12 games when these teams play each other.

Colts @ Jaguars (+8.5) -- 1 p.m.

In 3 games this season, Jax has trailed by 16, 26, and 31 points

Last 27 games, Jacksonville 3-1 vs. Colts; 2-21 vs rest of NFL

Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 23-2 ATS last 25!

Colts last week first double digit dog to win in the NFL in over a calendar year.

Colts +10.5 last week on road; -8.5 on road this week. 19 point relative spread improvement. Only 1 other team playing back-to-back road games in last 25 years has matched that.

Seahawks @ Texans (+2.5) -- 1 p.m.

Seattle:
(starting in 2005): 70% ATS at home (49-21-1)
On road during same period: 39% (27-43-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 92-48-2 (66% winners)

Under .500 ATS on road with Pete Carroll as coach.

Seattle has covered 12 straight vs. teams with a winning record.

Texans 8-1 when spread has been less than a field goal (favorite or dog)

Cardinals @ Buccaneers (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.

Arizona: Since 2005, teams are 45-78 ATS the week AFTER playing the Saints

Cards covered only 41% on road since 2002 (37-53-2)

Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 6 of 24 games since start of last seasonBucs: Last 39 home games, never once covered the spread two straight times!

0-3 teams favorites: 8-19 ATS (from 1989)

Cards: Away underdogs off an away loss: 179-113-3 ATS (61.3% from 2003)

Bears @ Lions (-3) -- 1 p.m.

Chicago: Beat Detroit 9 of 10 games.

Chicago THIS season leads the league in takaways
Chicago LAST season led the league in takaways

ESPN Power Rankings has . . .
Bears as the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] best team
Lions as the 16[SUP]th[/SUP] best team
(yet the home team favored by 3 implies even teams)
Giants @ Chiefs (-4) -- 1 p.m.

Giants on road under Caughlin: 50-31 ATS (62%)

Alex Smith last 29 games as a starter: 23-5-1 SU

Teams off 30+ point loss: 154-117-12 (57%) the next week (from 1990)

NYG: Away underdogs off an away loss: 179-113-3 ATS (61.3% from 2003)

KC: +9 turnovers; NYG: -9 turnovers
Jets @ Titans (-3.5) -- 4:05 p.m.

Jets have best defense in NFL on “per play basis”
but also 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best team overall on NET yards per play.

When the first Vegas line for this game opened in May …
Jets were FAVORED

Cowboys @ Chargers (+2) -- 4:25 p.m.

Last 4 seasons: the underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (36-15 ATS)

Cowboys 4-14 ATS after winning a game

Before last week: Chargers were favored by 1.5 in this game
now . . . after ONE Dallas win and ONE San Diego loss
the line has swung MORE THAN 3 points

San Diego: give up the most yards per defensive snap in the entire NFL

Redskins @ Raiders (+3.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 6 of 24 games since start of last seasonWashington has faced this season: Vick, Stafford, Rodgers.
Eagles @ Broncos (-10.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Eagles has given up an average of over 30 points per game its last 13.

#Eagles last 13 games have given up 31 touchdown passes while forcing only 3 interceptions!

Denver 37% ATS at home (22-37) since 2006

Denver has won 14 straight regular season games.

Eagles lost 5 straight ATS the week BEFORE playing Giants

Eagles with 3 extra days of rest (Thursday prior), Denver with 1 less (Monday prior)

Game Total: 58 points (2nd highest NFL Total since 2004!)

Patriots @ Falcons (-2) -- 8:30 p.m.

Atlanta at home: Negative Net Yards per play last season
and outgained yardage-wise in only home game this year

Matt Ryan 35-7 SU at home

Coach Smith 35-20 ATS as favorite

The next game after a loss: Atlanta has covered 21 of 24!

Roddy White has played all 3 games: total of 56 receiving yards on the season.

Bill Belichick with Patriots: 35-18-1 ATS (66%) as underdog.

Only 2 teams in the entire NFL
gain less yards per offensive snap than Patriots

Pats have faced two rookie QBs and a veteran so bad he’s now been benched
Dolphins @ Saints (-6.5) -- 8:40 p.m.

Saints under Coach Payton have covered 11 straight at home.

Saints have won and covered 7 straight primetime home games.

Miami has been outgained by 158 yards on the season
24 teams are better by that measure

Visitor in Miami games 52-30 ATS

Undefeated MNF home teams (3-0 or better): 12-2-1 ATS last 15

cogenman · Sep 28, 2013

Indy line went up to 10.

MusicCityGambler · Sep 28, 2013

cogenman said:
I'm starting to warm up to the Titans laying only 3 at home to the lowly Jets.

Jets are definitely due for a market correction after starting 3-0 ATS. I think the Titans win this by 10-14 but perhaps I'm overconfident.

cogenman · Sep 29, 2013

According to this article, they're saying Terrelle Pryor will start.

http://www.sfgate.com/raiders/article/Raiders-will-start-Pryor-NFL-sources-say-4853366.php

CASH · Sep 29, 2013

twinkie13 said:
3 games in and I think the D looks legit. Much is the scheme and some additions(but more scheme)....these guys always fit this type of attack better than what Spags tried last year

If Miami is a fugazi, we will know on Monday. And it will not be pretty IMO.

I think saints win big..

Eagles win in a shoot out ..

madshooter · Sep 29, 2013

cogenman said:
According to this article, they're saying Terrelle Pryor will start.

http://www.sfgate.com/raiders/article/Raiders-will-start-Pryor-NFL-sources-say-4853366.php

Flynn starting per ESPN

nbafan88 · Sep 29, 2013

if you can get a doug martin rushing + receiving prop i would definitely hit that

cogenman · Sep 29, 2013

madshooter said:
Flynn starting per ESPN

Yeah just saw that, thanks.

ManchesterUk · Sep 29, 2013

madshooter said:
Flynn starting per ESPN

You gotta think they are just trying to be careful with TP,I dont understand how the concussion medical process works.
he is either ok or hes not...confused,yes...... if MF struggles gotta think Allen sticks TP in there.

nbafan88 · Sep 29, 2013

Antonio Brown OVER 82.5 receiving yards -115
Big Ben Total Passing Yards OVER 270.5 -115
DeAndre Hopkins UNDER 60.5 yards receiving -115
Jacksonville +8 even

nbafan88 · Sep 29, 2013

[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1114"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NFL - 9/29/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]