Week 4 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 21 Thu 2023

06:30 PM
303Georgia State+7
-110		O 60
-110
304Coastal Carolina-7
-110		U 60
-110
Sep 22 Fri 2023

06:00 PM
307Wisconsin-7
-110		O 53½
-110
308Purdue+7
-110		U 53½
-110
06:30 PM
309NC State-10
-110		O 44½
-110
310Virginia+10
-110		U 44½
-110
09:30 PM
311Boise State-7½
-110		O 46
-110
312San Diego State+7½
-110		U 46
-110
09:30 PM
313Air Force-4½
-110		O 47½
-110
314San Jose State+4½
-110		U 47½
-110
Sep 23 Sat 2023

11:00 AM
319Army+13½
-110		O 51
-110
320Syracuse-13½
-110		U 51
-110
11:00 AM
323Virginia Tech+7½
-110		O 42
-110
324Marshall-7½
-110		U 42
-110
11:00 AM
335Florida Statepk
-110		O 56
-110
336Clemsonpk
-110		U 56
-110
11:00 AM
345Rutgers+25½
-110		O 44½
-110
346Michigan-25½
-110		U 44½
-110
11:00 AM
347Oklahoma-13½
-115		O 61½
-110
348Cincinnati+13½
-105		U 61½
-110
11:00 AM
383SMU+6
-110		O 63½
-110
384TCU-6
-110		U 63½
-110
11:00 AM
387Tulsa+3½
-110		O 53
-110
388Northern Illinois-3½
-110		U 53
-110
12:30 PM
353Western Michigan+21
-110		O 54½
-110
354Toledo-21
-110		U 54½
-110
01:00 PM
349Georgia Southern-6½
-115		O 58½
-110
350Ball State+6½
-105		U 58½
-110
02:30 PM
317Miami Florida-25½
-110		O 52½
-110
318Temple+25½
-110		U 52½
-110
02:30 PM
321Texas Tech-4½
-110		O 55
-110
322West Virginia+4½
-110		U 55
-110
02:30 PM
327New Mexico+1½
-110		O 50
-110
328Massachusetts-1½
-110		U 50
-110
02:30 PM
331Boston College+13½
-110		O 55
-110
332Louisville-13½
-110		U 55
-110
02:30 PM
337Duke-21½
-110		O 47½
-110
338Connecticut+21½
-110		U 47½
-110
02:30 PM
343BYU+8½
-110		O 55½
-110
344Kansas-8½
-110		U 55½
-110
02:30 PM
359Florida Atlantic+12½
-105		O 49
-110
360Illinois-12½
-115		U 49
-110
02:30 PM
365UCLA+5
-110		O 51½
-110
366Utah-5
-110		U 51½
-110
02:30 PM
371Colorado+20½
-110		O 73
-110
372Oregon+1 Markets-20½
-110		U 73
-110
02:30 PM
377Ohio-9½
-110		O 45½
-110
378Bowling Green+9½
-110		U 45½
-110
02:30 PM
379Maryland-6½
-110		O 53
-110
380Michigan State+6½
-110		U 53
-110
02:30 PM
385Louisiana Tech+20½
-110		O 49½
-110
386Nebraska-20½
-110		U 49½
-110
03:00 PM
339UTSA+20½
-105		O 56
-110
340Tennessee-20½
-115		U 56
-110
03:00 PM
351Rice-1½
-115		O 55½
-110
352South Florida+1½
-105		U 55½
-110
03:00 PM
355Oklahoma State+2
-105		O 37
-110
356Iowa State-2
-115		U 37
-110
05:30 PM
315Georgia Tech+6½
-110		O 60½
-110
316Wake Forest-6½
-110		U 60½
-110
06:00 PM
361Southern Miss-5½
-110		O 49
-110
362Arkansas State+5½
-110		U 49
-110
06:00 PM
367Arizona-9½
-110		O 59
-110
368Stanford+9½
-110		U 59
-110
06:00 PM
375Oregon State-3
-110		O 56
-105
376Washington State+3
-110		U 56
-115
06:30 PM
325UAB+40½
-110		O 53½
-110
326Georgia-40½
-110		U 53½
-110
06:30 PM
329Mississippi State+4½
-110		O 51
-110
330South Carolina-4½
-110		U 51
-110
06:30 PM
333Akron+17
-110		O 44½
-110
334Indiana-17
-110		U 44½
-110
06:30 PM
357Minnesota-12½
-110		O 38½
-110
358Northwestern+12½
-110		U 38½
-110
06:30 PM
389Memphis+5½
-110		O 54
-110
390Missouri-5½
-110		U 54
-110
07:00 PM
341North Carolina-6½
-115		O 49½
-110
342Pittsburgh+6½
-105		U 49½
-110
07:00 PM
363James Madison-5½
-110		O 53½
-110
364Utah State+5½
-110		U 53½
-110
09:30 PM
369USC-32½
-115		O 61
-110
370Arizona State+32½
-105		U 61
-110
09:30 PM
373California+21½
-110		O 62½
-110
374Washington-21½
-110		U 62½
-110
Sep 24 Sun 2023

10:59 PM
381Kentucky-13½
-110		O 51½
-110
382Vanderbilt+13½
-110		U 51½
-110
 
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Curious where Colorado/Oregon goes. Colorado was the most bet side in either college or pros this weekend.
 
M.W. said:
Thanks. Thoughts on VPI/Marshall?
Click to expand...
I know nothing about Marshall.

VT looked like a more competent offense with Drones at QB to me. He threw the ball well and to not the greatest receivers, so there were some drops.

VT actually had a running game with him at QB. I don't know the exact numbers but +100 yards and over 3.5 yards/carry would be my guess and considering their opponent last week, this was not bad, which is something that you cannot usually say about their running game.

I do not know why Drones did not beat out Wells during the offseason to be the starting QB. His knock was his passing game, but that passes the eye test to me.

There was zero chance that Wells started this past week due to some injury during the Purdue game. Wells did not practice, but VT acted like he may play because they thought it would give them an advantage if Rutgers did not know who to prepare for. I would assume Drones will start against Marshall, but if Wells has recovered, he will push the coaching staff to start because he transferred to VT from Marshall.

WR Jennings is out for a while and will not play. WR Lane dressed for Rutgers but did not play. I would assume he plays this week, but that is a guess. VT was pretty deep in their receiver depth chart against Rutgers. They lost their #1 TE the week before the season started.

The VT dbs are the strength of the defense and they are hard to pass on. If Marshall can run the ball and if they have a running/scrambling QB they will be able to move the ball.
 
He Hate Me said:
I know nothing about Marshall.

VT looked like a more competent offense with Drones at QB to me. He threw the ball well and to not the greatest receivers, so there were some drops.

VT actually had a running game with him at QB. I don't know the exact numbers but +100 yards and over 3.5 yards/carry would be my guess and considering their opponent last week, this was not bad, which is something that you cannot usually say about their running game.

I do not know why Drones did not beat out Wells during the offseason to be the starting QB. His knock was his passing game, but that passes the eye test to me.

There was zero chance that Wells started this past week due to some injury during the Purdue game. Wells did not practice, but VT acted like he may play because they thought it would give them an advantage if Rutgers did not know who to prepare for. I would assume Drones will start against Marshall, but if Wells has recovered, he will push the coaching staff to start because he transferred to VT from Marshall.

WR Jennings is out for a while and will not play. WR Lane dressed for Rutgers but did not play. I would assume he plays this week, but that is a guess. VT was pretty deep in their receiver depth chart against Rutgers. They lost their #1 TE the week before the season started.

The VT dbs are the strength of the defense and they are hard to pass on. If Marshall can run the ball and if they have a running/scrambling QB they will be able to move the ball.
Click to expand...
Thanks. It sounds a QB change could be a step in the right direction. Do you like the new coach?
 
M.W. said:
Thanks. It sounds a QB change could be a step in the right direction. Do you like the new coach?
Click to expand...
Not really. I guess he will be better than Fuente, which is not saying much. He looks like a better recruiter/players coach than Fuente, who managed to run off Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, and others.

Everything just seems disjointed and Gameday coaching is not good. I don't think any of his coordinators have been coordinators before so that is at least some of the issue.
 
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Noles laying less than 3 is a gift isn’t it? I don’t care they struggled and barely beat BC, I expected that to be a tough game for lot of reasons. I still think they are significantly better than clemson is right now! I have no doubt noles will find ways to move the ball and score points and I’m not sure clemson has that ability?? This line has to be more about clemson name than what they have on the field doesn’t it?
 
I have absolutely no idea wtf auburn/A&M gonna look like? Auburn’s offense looks different every damn week, I can’t even begin to guess how they gonna play? Last week against a cup cake they had thorne running all over the place which I don’t think his strength! Think should just stay away, I would think thorne could throw on Aggies but they totally took the ball out his hands when they played the only power 5 so far when they went to cal!! No idea what they will look like, I’d like to take 8.5 points vs Aggies but I have no faith in auburn and whether they have any kind of plan on offense?
 
2daBank said:
Noles laying less than 3 is a gift isn’t it? I don’t care they struggled and barely beat BC, I expected that to be a tough game for lot of reasons. I still think they are significantly better than clemson is right now! I have no doubt noles will find ways to move the ball and score points and I’m not sure clemson has that ability?? This line has to be more about clemson name than what they have on the field doesn’t it?
Click to expand...
@MW can attest, CUs field is crowned. Probably more than any other field in the nation. Helps with draining, but kills passing high. Leads to INTS. Wilson is 6'7", but that field is a Voodoo jinx for my Noles.
 
2daBank said:
Noles laying less than 3 is a gift isn’t it? I don’t care they struggled and barely beat BC, I expected that to be a tough game for lot of reasons. I still think they are significantly better than clemson is right now! I have no doubt noles will find ways to move the ball and score points and I’m not sure clemson has that ability?? This line has to be more about clemson name than what they have on the field doesn’t it?
Click to expand...
Clemson is improved from last year when they handled FSU pretty easily on the road (34-14 before garbage time, though turnovers helped). FSU is more improved, but they had a good bit of ground to make up, and we’ve switched venues, so you may be surprised. Duke is better than you think, and you of all people know that the margin in LSU’s last game was largely about matchups, not LSU’s overall quality. LSU is a very good team, but overrated at this point. As someone who saw the BC result coming, I can’t discount FSU for that performance, but it stills leaves us with a one-game sample for FSU against an LSU team that may not be all that great.
 
M.W. said:
Clemson is improved from last year when they handled FSU pretty easily on the road (34-14 before garbage time, though turnovers helped). FSU is more improved, but they had a good bit of ground to make up, and we’ve switched venues, so you may be surprised. Duke is better than you think, and you of all people know that the margin in LSU’s last game was largely about matchups, not LSU’s overall quality. LSU is a very good team, but overrated at this point. As someone who saw the BC result coming, I can’t discount FSU for that performance, but it stills leaves us with a one-game sample for FSU against an LSU team that may not be all that great.
Click to expand...
I think it’s a bit of both. I don’t think LSU is as bad as you think. Messy might even be a little worse.

I wouldn’t count a red bandanna game at 11am as anything to really get about FSU.


Spots plays still work in college football more than anywhere else where they seem to have died a bit more.

My 2 cents
 
twinkie13 said:
I think it’s a bit of both. I don’t think LSU is as bad as you think. Messy might even be a little worse.

I wouldn’t count a red bandanna game at 11am as anything to really get about FSU.


Spots plays still work in college football more than anywhere else where they seem to have died a bit more.

My 2 cents
Click to expand...
BC shouldn't have been a game if FSU is as good as their touted. No player on BC would start at FSU. We got comfortable. Can't do that with a team that is artificially inspired. Our DBs are going to get exposed this weekend. Can the O overcome that decrepancy? IDK.., but we can't play like we did last weekend..
 
booksbestfriend said:
BC shouldn't have been a game if FSU is as good as their touted. No player on BC would start at FSU. We got comfortable. Can't do that with a team that is artificially inspired. Our DBs are going to get exposed this weekend. Can the O overcome that decrepancy? IDK.., but we can't play like we did last weekend..
Click to expand...
The BC game is a quintessential indicator of motivation in college football. These are 18 to 22-year-old men, and everything in the Boston College game played out exactly as it should have. Florida State was looking ahead to Clemson. Clearly, Boston College was extremely juiced because of their annual red bandanna game. The line was 29 because most common bettors never look at any of these factors. The game was never going to be a 29 point margin with all of this sad I believe the Florida State performance against Clemson will not be affected in anyway by how they played against Boston College
 
M.W. said:
Clemson is improved from last year when they handled FSU pretty easily on the road (34-14 before garbage time, though turnovers helped). FSU is more improved, but they had a good bit of ground to make up, and we’ve switched venues, so you may be surprised. Duke is better than you think, and you of all people know that the margin in LSU’s last game was largely about matchups, not LSU’s overall quality. LSU is a very good team, but overrated at this point. As someone who saw the BC result coming, I can’t discount FSU for that performance, but it stills leaves us with a one-game sample for FSU against an LSU team that may not be all that great.
Click to expand...

It don’t have much to do with the duke game, I mean that game coulda easily been different if they didn’t fuck off 3 straight red zone trips. I want to say last year fsu game was very similar to that in the sense I thought for a god portion of that game fsu was every bit as good as them and could have won but then they started doing dumb shit, I have to go back and look to make sure cause my memory isn’t always right, lol. Maybe I said that sooner than I should of but at the moment I just think I prefer Travis and the offense noles run to klubnick and what tigers have going on at wr. I could be wrong or I could def change my mind as I do more work throughout the week as that was really just my 1st reaction which I often end up being against when all said and done, lol. I don’t think I could play clemson but again I’m early, I def need to look back at last year and see if I’m remembering things wrong.
 
booksbestfriend said:
BC shouldn't have been a game if FSU is as good as their touted. No player on BC would start at FSU. We got comfortable. Can't do that with a team that is artificially inspired. Our DBs are going to get exposed this weekend. Can the O overcome that decrepancy? IDK.., but we can't play like we did last weekend..
Click to expand...
It’s tough for a team to get off to a great start at home and keep up the intensity as a huge road favorite in game three. I don’t downgrade FSU for what happened last Saturday. I just think that the Duke game was somewhat similar, and there has been a huge overreaction to that result.

Klubnik is still throwing a couple balls each game that he has no business throwing, but being at home for the third straight week is really going to help Clemson.
 
booksbestfriend said:
BC shouldn't have been a game if FSU is as good as their touted. No player on BC would start at FSU. We got comfortable. Can't do that with a team that is artificially inspired. Our DBs are going to get exposed this weekend. Can the O overcome that decrepancy? IDK.., but we can't play like we did last weekend..
Click to expand...

Cmon man, you know that isn’t how college fb works, of course fsu should have beaten them by at least the spread but it happens to good teams every year and always will, it doesn’t mean noles are any less than we thought going in. Most guys around here were pretty adamant bc was gonna cover that game so hardly a shocker. As dominant the last 2 years Uga teams have been I recall a crappy mizzou team going to Georgia and damn near beating them! Does that mean Uga wasn’t a great team? That kinda shit just happens. Just gotta find a way to win those kind of games and use them to remind your team they need to bring their A game every week or they could get knocked off!

If you have other reasons for thinking noles are maybe overrated I’m all ears. There just has to be more than they played a close game with a inferior team cause that will happen to every top 10 team at least once thus year and pretty much every year as it just a fact of life.
 
Don’t forget Florida State was well in control of that game. I think they just lost focus in the second half and BC kept fighting.
 
I really wanted to play Oregon, but how can you lay 21 against prime‘s offense?? Unless they’re playing a top-tier defense, you can pencil them in for 30 every game.
 
C-MAN said:
I really wanted to play Oregon, but how can you lay 21 against prime‘s offense?? Unless they’re playing a top-tier defense, you can pencil them in for 30 every game.
Click to expand...

Yea that line was a serious bummer. Honestly the schedule in general bums me out, I woulda preferred (from a fade buffs perspective) that they drew some the more physical pac-12 teams at this point instead of the other wide open mostly offense teams they are gonna face and apparently catch a bunch of points against!

I really havnt looked closely at ducks yet this season but I gotta think my plan of attack could be playing running back props like I did w Nebraska rb against buffs. Hopefully ducks have 1-2 backs I can count on to get the touches? Think it be crazy not to try and run the ball down buffs throats and maybe even slow down a tad to keep buffs offense on the sideline. I’m not sure if ducks willing to do that or not these days? That what I’m hoping for when I look!
 
Shit, that what I was afraid of with ducks, looks like they have 2-3 maybe even 4 different backs that get touches and who knows which ends up w the most? I guess the safest bet to get double digit touches would be Bucky Irving? Have to see who they come out w numbers on and what they are. I just feel like it makes a lot of sense to run run and run some more on buffs.
 
2daBank said:
Shit, that what I was afraid of with ducks, looks like they have 2-3 maybe even 4 different backs that get touches and who knows which ends up w the most? I guess the safest bet to get double digit touches would be Bucky Irving? Have to see who they come out w numbers on and what they are. I just feel like it makes a lot of sense to run run and run some more on buffs.
Click to expand...

So hard to decipher, I don’t see any yardage props yet but they have Bucky Irving and whittingham more than -200 to score but Jordan James has more tds than both combined this year and he plus money to score! I’m afraid trying to figure this backfield out might not be worth it unless maybe they give these guys low rush totals as any of them could probably bust one.
 
C-MAN said:
Don’t forget Florida State was well in control of that game. I think they just lost focus in the second half and BC kept fighting.
Click to expand...

I’m never gonna put much into any these top 10 teams struggling in a game they huge favs in, shit just happens, especially when they get a feisty opponent and they either just played a way bigger game or have one on deck the coming week. It’s why I rarely get involved w big spreads unless I really like the dog.
 
2daBank said:
Noles laying less than 3 is a gift isn’t it? I don’t care they struggled and barely beat BC, I expected that to be a tough game for lot of reasons. I still think they are significantly better than clemson is right now! I have no doubt noles will find ways to move the ball and score points and I’m not sure clemson has that ability?? This line has to be more about clemson name than what they have on the field doesn’t it?
Click to expand...
I heard from a pretty reputable source that the flu bug hit FSU's locker room pretty hard. Assuming they're recovered this week, the showing in Chestnut Hill probably gave us some value on the Noles. At -2', I'm definitely laying it. Clemson doesn't have difference-makers outside or under center to keep up with FSU offense.
 
Dabo addresses an area of great concern:

When Dabo Swinney learned Jonathan Weitz was enrolled in Clemson’s masters program, he did not hesitate to pick up the phone and call his former placekicker.

Swinney confirmed during his weekly press conference Tuesday that Weitz is back on campus and will be the Tigers’ field goal kicker when they host No. 4 Florida State Saturday at Memorial Stadium.

Last Saturday, Weitz was watching Clemson beat FAU on television from his home in Charleston, S.C. On Sunday he was in his car headed back to the Upstate to be the Tigers’ new kicker.

On Sunday, Swinney said he was very close to making a change at place kicker after Robert Gunn struggled with his field goals against FAU. The redshirt freshman missed a 31-yard kick and a PAT in the first quarter. He also had two kicks blocked at Duke to start the season.

Through the first three games, Gunn is just 1-for-4 with the one make being a 23-yard kick against Charleston Southern. He is 14-of-15 on PATs.

“He is just a young player, a freshman, that has to kind of work himself through it all. His kickoffs are amazing. He has been unbelievable there, but he has just been in a little bit of a funk. It really started in the Duke game. He was amazing all fall camp.

Weitz was a walk-on from 2019-2022 who attempted three extra points during his time at Clemson and made all three. He also had a 56.0-yard average on 10 career kickoffs.

“He is not just a guy off the street. He is right now, but he was in our program for four years,” Swinney said. “He was the backup the last two years. He was a good backup, but we just happened to have BT Potter.”
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I heard from a pretty reputable source that the flu bug hit FSU's locker room pretty hard. Assuming they're recovered this week, the showing in Chestnut Hill probably gave us some value on the Noles. At -2', I'm definitely laying it. Clemson doesn't have difference-makers outside or under center to keep up with FSU offense.
Click to expand...
Cole Turner (Clemson's fastest receiver) is officially out for the season as of yesterday.
 
2daBank said:
I’m never gonna put much into any these top 10 teams struggling in a game they huge favs in, shit just happens, especially when they get a feisty opponent and they either just played a way bigger game or have one on deck the coming week. It’s why I rarely get involved w big spreads unless I really like the dog.
Click to expand...
FSU by 40 this week

What's crazy is it's not even a really big game other than history dictating that mindset
 
2daBank said:
Cmon man, you know that isn’t how college fb works, of course fsu should have beaten them by at least the spread but it happens to good teams every year and always will, it doesn’t mean noles are any less than we thought going in. Most guys around here were pretty adamant bc was gonna cover that game so hardly a shocker. As dominant the last 2 years Uga teams have been I recall a crappy mizzou team going to Georgia and damn near beating them! Does that mean Uga wasn’t a great team? That kinda shit just happens. Just gotta find a way to win those kind of games and use them to remind your team they need to bring their A game every week or they could get knocked off!

If you have other reasons for thinking noles are maybe overrated I’m all ears. There just has to be more than they played a close game with a inferior team cause that will happen to every top 10 team at least once thus year and pretty much every year as it just a fact of life.
Click to expand...
DBs play SOFT coverage, almost like they are playing odds that the receiver won't catch it

D-Co can't see to put a spy on the opposing QB after being burned 3 x on 3rd and forever.

D-line doesn't play true lanes. If they are playing their assignment, the LBs aren't. Someone has to fill the void.

Killer instinct was non-existant. Was up 16 in the 3rd and they pulled back.


Opposing penalties won that game...
 
booksbestfriend said:
DBs play SOFT coverage, almost like they are playing odds that the receiver won't catch it

D-Co can't see to put a spy on the opposing QB after being burned 3 x on 3rd and forever.

D-line doesn't play true lanes. If they are playing their assignment, the LBs aren't. Someone has to fill the void.

Killer instinct was non-existant. Was up 16 in the 3rd and they pulled back.


Opposing penalties won that game...
Click to expand...

Oh they went totally stale once they had a big lead. Think there was a stretch of 20/30 plays they averaged like 2ypp. I just don’t think a lackluster performance in a easy spot to not be real motivated is the end of the world, it happens to pretty much every championship level team at some point during the season. I don’t think we see anything like that on Saturday in this kind of game, maybe they lose but I don’t think it be lack of effort or preparedness for this one.
 
KJ said:
FSU by 40 this week

What's crazy is it's not even a really big game other than history dictating that mindset
Click to expand...

Wow! You think they smash huh? Guys have me second guessing, lol. I’m really looking forward to what the “BTB” pod guys have to say bout this game cause I know one of them a big fsu fan but not the type to give sone bs homerish take.
 
2daBank said:
Wow! You think they smash huh? Guys have me second guessing, lol. I’m really looking forward to what the “BTB” pod guys have to say bout this game cause I know one of them a big fsu fan but not the type to give sone bs homerish take.
Click to expand...
I think if Clemson score 10 it's a victory

I believe FSU score 45 minimum
 
KJ said:
I think if Clemson score 10 it's a victory

I believe FSU score 45 minimum
Click to expand...

I might be a tad biased, I’ve always been partial to fsu so it could be easy to have me second guess knowing I liked them last year and clemson turned into part a 3 game stretch where they really struggled. Noles out gained them in that game tho and I just felt like beat themselves before almost coming back. I really feel like it fsu time right now so I tend to agree with you, I’m not sure if that kind of beat down but I do think fsu the better team by more than spread suggest.
 
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