Week 4 CFB with writing this time

you just want to mail me the money you put on rice? did you see byu last weekend?!? wow!!! but hey, if that shit hits! wow!!!
 
GL this week Red, lot of good insight in your thread. I'm going to disagree with your comment though that MD can't throw. WVU had such a large lead that they sat back in the Cover 2 zone the rest of the night and Hollenbach had no choice but to take the underneath stuff. All credit to WVU for running the ball very well in the 1H but MD actually adjusted and did much better stopping White and Slaton in the 2H and WVU starters did play most of the way. I realize TO's are part of the game and MD did what they couldn't do which was fall behind early in that game, otherwise I think it would have been a much better game.
 
redbearde,

just have to let you know your pos regarding the BC vs. NCSU game had me rolling...not only is your analysis outstanding, but I loved the humor in it (especially the parts about Rachel Nichols and Marcus Stone contemplating his career)...LMFAO...just had to tell you that...
 
Timh said:
GL this week Red, lot of good insight in your thread. I'm going to disagree with your comment though that MD can't throw. WVU had such a large lead that they sat back in the Cover 2 zone the rest of the night and Hollenbach had no choice but to take the underneath stuff. All credit to WVU for running the ball very well in the 1H but MD actually adjusted and did much better stopping White and Slaton in the 2H and WVU starters did play most of the way. I realize TO's are part of the game and MD did what they couldn't do which was fall behind early in that game, otherwise I think it would have been a much better game.
Click to expand...


sure, but on 45 attempts, they had 200 yards......the wr's dropped several catchable balls, especially the downfield tosses. MD's real problem was the 5 turnovers. and in the 2H, wasn't WVU playing backups? In their first 2 games, MD passed less than 40% of their plays. My point was that they were a running team before they hit the mounties.

I'm not trying to badmouth the terps. today, at least... ;)

remember, I had terps +20.5, too....that damn near cashed even with 5 turnovers.

GL this wek.
 
redbearde said:
sure, but on 45 attempts, they had 200 yards......the wr's dropped several catchable balls, especially the downfield tosses. MD's real problem was the 5 turnovers. and in the 2H, wasn't WVU playing backups? In their first 2 games, MD passed less than 40% of their plays. My point was that they were a running team before they hit the mounties.

I'm not trying to badmouth the terps. today, at least... ;)

remember, I had terps +20.5, too....that damn near cashed even with 5 turnovers.

GL this wek.
Click to expand...

They still are a running team first, but that went out the window with the early turnovers and bad defensive performance (see safeties on run support) in the first quarter when they fell so far behind. As I mentioned before the most inexperienced part of their team is at the WR position. However, I was pleased that D Heyward Bey WR really stepped up and played a decent game and showed he can play at a major level. He's got like 4.25 speed and size to go with it and will just continue to improve. MD has been missing Weatherly (foot injury) who was their most experienced returning receiver. Oqendo and I. Williams will be just fine also. I was so fucking pissed about how they played in that first half. They just weren't ready mentally and the TO's killed them. Anyway, it's only one game and I expect this team to compete well in an ACC league that is admittedly down this year.
 
Hawaii +550
Hawaii +15 3 units

The value here damn near demands a play. Hawaiiguy says Hawaii is improved dramatically - especially on the lines. I believe him. They sure worked Bama over in the second half. No doubt, Hawaii can score. If the gaywarriors can compete on the lines and get some stops, I think they have a shot.

As for the spread play...Cris is at 14.5 again, and pinny has the heavier juice on the +15. Thinking it's going to go down again. So I went ahead and hit it.

I've also had plenty of sleep this today, and I have VERY few leans left...about the only one is New Mexico. Both Cris and Pinny are lower on that one. Perhaps it'll come back up, but right now, I'm not inclined to bother with it.

We're in Texarkana now if anyone's keeping track and interested. Abilene, here we come.
 
Tim, you're right. Beyward Hey did really have a good game...

but still. 45 attempts...24 completions? they gotta do better than that.

Or is WVU's secondary better than advertised?
 
pags11 said:
redbearde,

just have to let you know your pos regarding the BC vs. NCSU game had me rolling...not only is your analysis outstanding, but I loved the humor in it (especially the parts about Rachel Nichols and Marcus Stone contemplating his career)...LMFAO...just had to tell you that...
Click to expand...

I'm glad you enjoyed it. =) I still want to fuck Rachel Nichols. A lot.
 
well, I'm still loking at new mexico(sub 300, now) and Army (388!). I would like some feedback on these two teams. NM is even the home team. Anyone see a str8 up win for the lobos?

Does army compete this week, or does they baylor D do what aggie could not...?
 
I just don't understand why both Baylor and UTEP are favored by this many...watched Army play vs. A&M and they are pretty scrappy...UNM is pretty good at home ATS, not sure about the money line though...
 
Well....BetCris made me. I grabbed Army +405 while I had the chance.

New Mexico is at 310 again at pinny. Somehow, I think I can get more for that one...
 
Thanks wolfpack. Hey, maybe Evans will be good, I'll be wrong this week, and the wolfpack will rebound dramatically in time for us to get a great payoff against FSU...
 
I tried to wager on GT/UVA, but the power went out right as I hit SUBMiT.

It wasn't out just for the hotel here in Abilene...oh no. THE ENTIRE BLOCK.

So I figure God is telling me not to make this bet. I didn't like it all that much, anyway, but I do think it's the best bet for that game. Hell, this is a game that GT might throw away. Wouldn't that be some shit?
 
adding some first half plays with you guys.

Auburn -24 (-108) 1h
WVU -13.5 (-108) 1h
LSU -21 (-108) 1h
WMU -16.5 (-105) 1h

GL to us
 
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adding

Purdue +135
New Mexico +310

I'm afraid the Lobos may drop again. Purdue is tailing garf. He's right. If Purdue puts in just the smallest amount of defense, they certainly have a good shot at this straight up win.
 
alright, here's a comprehensive list for this weekend.

moneylines: 8-15, 34.8% +3.95 units, last week, 3-5.

Miami OH +260
Rice +2600 .5 unit
Rice +4100 .2 unit
Louisiana Tech +1640
Arkansas St +260
Kent St +240
Washington +145
Mississippi St +373
Hawaii +550
Army +405
Purdue +135
New Mexico +310
San Diego St +315

Spreads/Totals: 44-27-3, 59% +23.32 units

Nevada -7 (+102) 2 units
Louisville -13.5 (+101) 2 units
Rice +27.5 (-105) 2 units
Rice +30.5 (-105) 2 units
West Virginia -20.5 (+104) 2 units
Army +10 (-102)
Western Michigan -27 (-105) 2 units
Temple +30 (+106) 2 units
Louisiana Tech +22 (+107) 2 units
USC -20.5 (+113)
Arizona +20.5 (+111)
Boston College -7 (-102) 2 units
Ole Miss -3 (+107) 2 units
Tulane/LSU UNDER 48 -105
Hawaii/Boise St UNDER 63 +104
Barf/Auburn UNDER 48.5 +104
Colorado/UGA UNDER 36.5 -105
Hawaii +15 3 units
Texas Tech -45 (-115) 2 units
Auburn -24 (-108) 1h
WVU -13.5 (-108) 1h
LSU -21 (-108) 1h
WMU -16.5 (-105) 1h

I don't think I posted about all these, anyway. Very unlikely that I'll play any more. I expect a big day on Saturday for the underdogs. It'd be about time I win more of these close ones.

GL on your bets, guys.
 
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hedging out of my USC bet. maybe I'm giving away money, but I get a small free profit, and I respect College Knowledge's opinion on his team.

so now I have

Arizona +20.5 (+111)

also, I am tailing sooners, I think it was...with Texas Tech -45 against SE Louisiana. maybe TT can cover this one...

i'm going to edit my above post to reflect these.

GL this week, gentlemen.
 
we'll see about the wedding. It conflicts with some good wagering time - sunday late afternoon......grumble grumble.
 
Well, let me try this post again...TEH intRANETS ate the last one...

Alright, SDSU's line has frickin skyrocketed. I was considering it at 2:1, but now it's over 3:1. SDSU has competed with better competition than Utah shit the bed against. Utah's spectacular rankings and performances have been against shit teams so far. SDSU also tends to play Utah pretty tough..even managing a win last year.

SDSU has had good defensive play since halftime of their first game - and Utah hasn't been dominant against anyone who is or should be in Div 1A.

Consequently, I can't let this slide. Even though Pags talked me out of it before, I still give SDSU somewheres between 35-40% chance to win, and I'll take +315 with that chance every week.

SDSU +315

Good luck this week guys. I'm updating my above post to reflect this play.
 
35-40, but yeah.

Again, I'm not so much respecting SDSU as I am disrespecting Utah. I might consider a spread play at +10, but if Utah shows up to play, I don't think 10 will be enough. If they don't show up to play, I think more than likely SDSU beats em under the woodshed.

maybe it's wishful thinking. I could be totally wrong. GL on your bets tomorrow...er...except Utah. ;)
 
Adding Temple +30 (+106) 2 units

Didn't really plan on doing this, but it seems prudent. Call it a hedge or a middle. I don't much care.

Go WMU and Temple.

I am NOT hedging this 1H though. I just can't do that...
 
redbearde said:
Mississippi St +373

new QB got some offensive fireworks going last game. And this defense has done alright given how atrocious the offense has been keeping them on the field so damn long.....

UAB is flakey, and Mrs Sippy St is in dire need of a win. Eh, value.

wtf am I doing? I'm too tired to be doing this...
Click to expand...

Nice hit :drinking:
 
moneylines: 8-15, 34.8% +3.95 units

Miami OH +260 - L
Rice +2600 .5 unit - L
Rice +4100 .2 unit - L ....counting these as one loss
Louisiana Tech +1640 - L
Arkansas St +260 - L
Kent St +240 - W
Washington +145 - W
Mississippi St +373 - W
Hawaii +550 - L - but close enough for me to be pleased
Army +405 - W
Purdue +135 - W
New Mexico +310 - W
San Diego St +315 - L

6-7, 46% +9.08 units
overall: 14-22, 38.9% +13.03 units

Spreads/Totals: 44-27-3, 59% +23.32 units

Nevada -7 (+102) 2 units - W
Louisville -13.5 (+101) 2 units - W
Rice +27.5 (-105) 2 units - L
Rice +30.5 (-105) 2 units - L
West Virginia -20.5 (+104) 2 units - L
Army +10 (-102) - W
Western Michigan -27 (-105) 2 units - W
Temple +30 (+106) 2 units - L
Louisiana Tech +22 (+107) 2 units
USC -20.5 (+113) - L
Arizona +20.5 (+111) - W
Boston College -7 (-102) 2 units - L
Ole Miss -3 (+107) 2 units - L
Tulane/LSU UNDER 48 -105 - L
Hawaii/Boise St UNDER 63 +104 - L
Barf/Auburn UNDER 48.5 +104 - W
Colorado/UGA UNDER 36.5 -105 - W
Hawaii +15 (-108) 3 units - W
Texas Tech -45 (-115) 2 units - W
Auburn -24 (-108) 1h - L
WVU -13.5 (-108) 1h - L
LSU -21 (-108) 1h - W
WMU -16.5 (-105) 1h - W


10 - 12, 45.4% +.78 overall, 54 - 39 - 2, 56.8% +24.1 units


I will contemplate specifics tomorrow. Spreads didn't go so well this week. ML dogs finally paid off real well. And Hawaii had a shot. Just too damn many turnovers...


oh, and this week's teaser is still alive. =)
 
abcs--thelegend said:
Nice hit :drinking:
Click to expand...

Thanks man. I was thrilled to see both this one and Army hit. Fucking ecstatic. As expected, I of course feel dumb for playing Rice. Still feel okay about LT...though obviously that didn't go well...

hope you made some money today, too, bro.
 
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