redbearde
Pretty much a regular
I am traveling to Abilene, TX this week, so I'll write what I can in hotel rooms...
Okay, for a reality check, after yesterday's sub 50% experience, I still made a little money.
First things first, Moneylines.
3 wins 5 losses, +1.23 units. I had a real good shot at both LSU and Oklahoma. Yea verily, I think okie got screwed. This means I picked the everloving FUCK out of the ML dogs last week. If I had just stuck with my initial three, then I would have gone 2-1. Now, overall, I am
8-15, 34.8% +3.95 units. Shooting sup 35%, still making money. Once I win a few more of these agonizingly close games, the percentage and money should go up dramatically. This is a reasonable expectation, btw.
My phone being a Super Phone that it is, I was actually able to place some wagers already for week 4 while in the car. I know I know. It's dangerous. STFU. It was a deserted stretch of I-81 in East TN, and I wanted the numbers. =) It's not degenerate...it's simply good money management.
Last week, you might remember I had way too fucking many plays. They were fucking many plays because they seemed to be fornicating and increasing population. I had about 40 wagers by the end of the week. This is a few on the same games (and this actually saved me money on, for instance, the FL/TN game), but it was a REALLY REALLY bad style. 20 is a lot. 40 is fucking stupid for my limited abilities, and I should have known that and acted on it. I made money money because I threw 2 units on a few select plays. My performance in the matador invitational was incredible....and not just because of the 10 unit play on Minny. I was a lot more selective, I left the MLs at my original 3, and I finished positive by about 20 units on the week. And this is with crappy juice lines.......
aTm and Army. I was surprised by the Aggies' performance. I was conversely surprised by Army's performance. I think now that Army was so shocked to have a lead against Kent that the black knights just didn't know what to do with themselves. They were in their usual spot against aggie, behind, and they just tried to stay in it rather than keep or take a lead. Even at the end they did a few bizarre things that made me wonder if they really were trying to win or just make sure to keep it close. Ultimately aTm won on a goal line stand in the last seconds, but dear lord was that the wrong side. holy phucking bad pick, batbearde. Aggie underperformed, no doubt. But I'm not so sure Army thoroughly overperformed. The black knights simply did everything they needed to do following every aTm score with one of their own. They converted long drives with 24 first downs in the game. 24 against aggie defense! Army pounded the ball for over 200 yards rushing and over 5ypc against a larger and supposedly (and ostensibly) more talented defense. This may be Army's best performance of the year, but because they didn't win they may still be trying to prove something to themselves. Definitely a live dog at least in the coming weeks. Keep an eye on Army to cover ats, at least. I'm hoping for some good ML spots, too.
Navy utterly obliterated Stanford. Tree could not score, and they could not stop NAvy's pounding offense. This one went right. Stanford could do nothing right. Tree is going to get killed in the upcoming few games. Navy had 30 first downs and 461 yards...383 yards rushing.
EVERY PAC 10 TEAM NOTICED THIS.
even though Stanford had 377 total yards and 23 first downs, Tree only had 9 points. Turnovers and just plain no-heart play really crushed em. Stanford won't win a game this season. Lines may be prohibitively high, though, so Tree's performance doesn't necessarily help us out. If a light line comes up though, give fading Stanford a LOT of prescient thought. Oh my. Washington St is -10.5. I like wazzou to win by 14 or 17. Maybe even more. I'll have to give this some serious chalky thought. Obviously no Stanford ML bets.
USC at Nebraska. The books were right. They are more often than not. Bear this in mind. USC was inside the Nebraska 5 at the end of the game and just let the clock run out. I didn't see much of this game...too busy watching Clemson/FSU.
FSU hosting Clemson. I believe in situational trends. Clemson hadn't won at FSU in a long fucking time. Recently though, Clemson has had the noles' number. They're typically close games, now, and Clemson has won the last 2 of 3 or something, I think. Since Tommy started running Clemson, and since Chuck has been running NCSU, those two teams think in terms specifically of beating Florida St. A shit ass NCSU team managed it IN FLORIDA last year, and Clemson managed it this year. These two guys know Bobby, and the trend is that if you've coached with Bobby, then you have a good shot at beating him. FSU is also on a decline the last few years. Maybe the coaching is a coincidence, but I don't think so. But it is the case the Florida St has faltered a lot recently. FSU barely squeaked out a win against a relatively meager Miami team, sorta held off Troy, and then lost AT HOME to Clemson. Miami and FSU are no longer our Daddies' teams. They don't suck - if you can get good value with them as ML dogs, JUMP on em, because they have great defenses......but they aren't invincible either, and there is often extra value for dogs against them. Add to that, Clemson managed the win without a kicking game. Half FSU's points came from Clemson's total clusterassfuck of a kicking program. FSU has serious offensive problems. Consequently, when I see a team that I think has a chance in hell (maybe not much of one, but a chance nonetheless), I will bet it. Even with just a half unit on the ML, I'll do that every week at +2600 for Rice at FSU. With +27.5, Rice should be a great bet, IMO. Maybe rice shot their wad in the opener versus Houston, and I'm just throwing half a unit away. Since FSU has trouble scoring against every team they've played, including troy, I'll take this.
Syracuse. Don't believe the hype. Syracuse is still absolutely shit. It just so happened that Illinois was a little shittier Saturday - i watched that game, and Cuse didn't so much take it as Illi threw it at them, wiped their asses with the ball, refused to tackle or play any semblance of defense, and didn't bother to move the ball themselves until the 4th quarter. This was the other end of the Temple/Barfalo game in week 1. Instead of inept offenses making the defenses look good, it was total lack of defense making it look like there was offense on the field. No one made tough plays. It's just that the defenses didn't make the relatively easy plays. I just don't see Cuse as a 7 point fave to anyone. Miami Oh looks like a 50-50 shot to me, here. I already played the ML because I have no idea what the fuck the line will do here. Can't believe people would lay chalk on syracuse, but I suck at predicting lines.....we'll see I guess. Anyway, I have Miami OH +260. Honestly, I'm not so sure the right team is favored here.
more to come. Want to post before I lose this...
Okay, for a reality check, after yesterday's sub 50% experience, I still made a little money.
First things first, Moneylines.
3 wins 5 losses, +1.23 units. I had a real good shot at both LSU and Oklahoma. Yea verily, I think okie got screwed. This means I picked the everloving FUCK out of the ML dogs last week. If I had just stuck with my initial three, then I would have gone 2-1. Now, overall, I am
8-15, 34.8% +3.95 units. Shooting sup 35%, still making money. Once I win a few more of these agonizingly close games, the percentage and money should go up dramatically. This is a reasonable expectation, btw.
My phone being a Super Phone that it is, I was actually able to place some wagers already for week 4 while in the car. I know I know. It's dangerous. STFU. It was a deserted stretch of I-81 in East TN, and I wanted the numbers. =) It's not degenerate...it's simply good money management.
Last week, you might remember I had way too fucking many plays. They were fucking many plays because they seemed to be fornicating and increasing population. I had about 40 wagers by the end of the week. This is a few on the same games (and this actually saved me money on, for instance, the FL/TN game), but it was a REALLY REALLY bad style. 20 is a lot. 40 is fucking stupid for my limited abilities, and I should have known that and acted on it. I made money money because I threw 2 units on a few select plays. My performance in the matador invitational was incredible....and not just because of the 10 unit play on Minny. I was a lot more selective, I left the MLs at my original 3, and I finished positive by about 20 units on the week. And this is with crappy juice lines.......
aTm and Army. I was surprised by the Aggies' performance. I was conversely surprised by Army's performance. I think now that Army was so shocked to have a lead against Kent that the black knights just didn't know what to do with themselves. They were in their usual spot against aggie, behind, and they just tried to stay in it rather than keep or take a lead. Even at the end they did a few bizarre things that made me wonder if they really were trying to win or just make sure to keep it close. Ultimately aTm won on a goal line stand in the last seconds, but dear lord was that the wrong side. holy phucking bad pick, batbearde. Aggie underperformed, no doubt. But I'm not so sure Army thoroughly overperformed. The black knights simply did everything they needed to do following every aTm score with one of their own. They converted long drives with 24 first downs in the game. 24 against aggie defense! Army pounded the ball for over 200 yards rushing and over 5ypc against a larger and supposedly (and ostensibly) more talented defense. This may be Army's best performance of the year, but because they didn't win they may still be trying to prove something to themselves. Definitely a live dog at least in the coming weeks. Keep an eye on Army to cover ats, at least. I'm hoping for some good ML spots, too.
Navy utterly obliterated Stanford. Tree could not score, and they could not stop NAvy's pounding offense. This one went right. Stanford could do nothing right. Tree is going to get killed in the upcoming few games. Navy had 30 first downs and 461 yards...383 yards rushing.
EVERY PAC 10 TEAM NOTICED THIS.
even though Stanford had 377 total yards and 23 first downs, Tree only had 9 points. Turnovers and just plain no-heart play really crushed em. Stanford won't win a game this season. Lines may be prohibitively high, though, so Tree's performance doesn't necessarily help us out. If a light line comes up though, give fading Stanford a LOT of prescient thought. Oh my. Washington St is -10.5. I like wazzou to win by 14 or 17. Maybe even more. I'll have to give this some serious chalky thought. Obviously no Stanford ML bets.
USC at Nebraska. The books were right. They are more often than not. Bear this in mind. USC was inside the Nebraska 5 at the end of the game and just let the clock run out. I didn't see much of this game...too busy watching Clemson/FSU.
FSU hosting Clemson. I believe in situational trends. Clemson hadn't won at FSU in a long fucking time. Recently though, Clemson has had the noles' number. They're typically close games, now, and Clemson has won the last 2 of 3 or something, I think. Since Tommy started running Clemson, and since Chuck has been running NCSU, those two teams think in terms specifically of beating Florida St. A shit ass NCSU team managed it IN FLORIDA last year, and Clemson managed it this year. These two guys know Bobby, and the trend is that if you've coached with Bobby, then you have a good shot at beating him. FSU is also on a decline the last few years. Maybe the coaching is a coincidence, but I don't think so. But it is the case the Florida St has faltered a lot recently. FSU barely squeaked out a win against a relatively meager Miami team, sorta held off Troy, and then lost AT HOME to Clemson. Miami and FSU are no longer our Daddies' teams. They don't suck - if you can get good value with them as ML dogs, JUMP on em, because they have great defenses......but they aren't invincible either, and there is often extra value for dogs against them. Add to that, Clemson managed the win without a kicking game. Half FSU's points came from Clemson's total clusterassfuck of a kicking program. FSU has serious offensive problems. Consequently, when I see a team that I think has a chance in hell (maybe not much of one, but a chance nonetheless), I will bet it. Even with just a half unit on the ML, I'll do that every week at +2600 for Rice at FSU. With +27.5, Rice should be a great bet, IMO. Maybe rice shot their wad in the opener versus Houston, and I'm just throwing half a unit away. Since FSU has trouble scoring against every team they've played, including troy, I'll take this.
Syracuse. Don't believe the hype. Syracuse is still absolutely shit. It just so happened that Illinois was a little shittier Saturday - i watched that game, and Cuse didn't so much take it as Illi threw it at them, wiped their asses with the ball, refused to tackle or play any semblance of defense, and didn't bother to move the ball themselves until the 4th quarter. This was the other end of the Temple/Barfalo game in week 1. Instead of inept offenses making the defenses look good, it was total lack of defense making it look like there was offense on the field. No one made tough plays. It's just that the defenses didn't make the relatively easy plays. I just don't see Cuse as a 7 point fave to anyone. Miami Oh looks like a 50-50 shot to me, here. I already played the ML because I have no idea what the fuck the line will do here. Can't believe people would lay chalk on syracuse, but I suck at predicting lines.....we'll see I guess. Anyway, I have Miami OH +260. Honestly, I'm not so sure the right team is favored here.
more to come. Want to post before I lose this...
go Army!
