Week 4 CFB Props

He Hate Me

I hope everyone is treated the same
I will not be around much on Saturday, so posting this now. I have only played 2 props so far.

Cam Fancher Over 27.5 yards rushing (-115) Been playing this every week and the Hokies get another QB who can run/scramble.

Brennan Armstrong Over 35.5 yards rushing (-115) Armstrong going back to UVA so he will do everything he can to win. I saw Draftkings had this at 32.5 earlier today, but the 35.5 was the best line I had at my available books.
 
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I will not be around much on Saturday, so posting this now. I have only played 2 props so far.

Cam Fancher Over 27.5 yards rushing (-115) Been playing this every week and the Hokies get another QB who can run/scramble.

Brennan Armstrong Over 35.5 yards rushing (-115) Armstrong going back to UVA so he will do everything he can to win. I say Draftkings had this at 32.5 earlier today, but the 35.5 was the best line I had at my available books.
Good stuff.

Armstrong revenge game!

Important to get in these early -- these numbers move so quickly!

That's the difference between a winner (Cub and others with Sims at Colo) and a loser (myself same play by the hook).
 
I actually got Armstrong ov 32.5 last night, used kittle 75+ +370 as a jump point into Armstrong so pays real nice (I might have another 3 leg that ends with fsu!!). If his rush yards gets bet up today which I think it might I might be tempted to try and middle, I dunno tho, 32.5 felt really freaking short against a Uva team who doesn’t have 1 sack on the season!!
 
My only concern is you would think Uva should know him well, I’m just not sure they have the dudes to execute any kind of game plan? I do think it be one of the other, either Armstrong runs for 50+ or he goes over his passing yards if Uva commits to keeping him in the pocket, I can’t see them stopping both!!
 
Another one im on alresdy,

Shipley ov 19.5 rec yards.., I think noles are gonna get this into a game script tigers have to throw, don’t think clemson wrs are anything special, they have to get the ball into Shipley hands and I’d think stopping him from running would be priority number 1!! He had 6 catches for 29 vs duke, last year he had 6 for 48 in a game they lead vs fsu. It tough for me to see a world he doesn’t get 20+ rec yards, I guess if you think tigers dominate w the run game and lead wire to wire but I don’t think that happening.
 
Haven’t played some of these yet, just working shit out in my head, I do that better by typing/talking so if nobody minds I’m bout to start running my mouth! Lol. If it already a play I will be specific.

Ou/cincy.,. Gabriel ov 253.5 passing.., couple ways to look at this, the concern is the smu game this year and several Ou road games last year where he didn’t hit this mark. The d kinda controlled the smu game and Sooners ran the ball 40+ times, that is certainly possible here, I think ppl forget Venables has been a very good defensive coach and the kind of dudes he should be getting at Ou I expect this defense to look a lot better this year. So that could happen here, I def think the sooner d could cause some confusion for emery jones, actually interested to see if they put any props up for him as right now the options very limited!! Anyways, the more important thing here is I do think this number could be a little discounted thanks to the fact cincy pass d really hasn’t been tested! I do think cincy front 7 is good and can obviously get to the qb but Sooners oline been very good in pass pro, you get Gabriel time and I think he can attack what is the part of bearcats d that has lost the most. Last week Gabbert had 237 passing on just 12 completions! That screams to me you can roast this secondary and I assume Sooners have way better athletes on the outside than Miami Ohio did. This defensive pass rating comes curtesy of facing one the worst power 5 passing games I have seen (pitt), and eastern Kentucky, I have no doubt the weakness of this bearcat d is the secondary, I think Sooners can hold up against the pass rush and that should equate to Gabriel throwing for a bunch of yards. My biggest concern is game script, if the sooner d is as good as I suspect it may be are they gonna be throwing in the 2nd half? I’m not sure. I do think cincy 1st ever big 12 game at home provides some juice and Satterfiekd at times can draw up some offense,, surprised this total opened 61, not surprised it been bet down all way to 57, I think the 20.5 team total for cincy is about spot on, that what I had wrote down, Sooners 35.5 certainly seems high but it makes me think I’m not the only one who sees the holes in bearcats secondary. I don’t see a ton in the early games so this is def a possible.
 
Have I mentioned how bad I hate auburn? This freaking team, think I’ve lost one play or another on them in damn near every game and it never because it was a bad play it always because these assholes can’t seem to make up their mind what the flying fuck this offense is supposed to be!!! These fucking oddsmakers just keep daring me to fuck up too! Hanging a number I know thorne could easily hit if they simply let him sit back and chuck the ball, the reason I assumed they brougt him in the transfer portal! I dunno, I should just scratch this game and move on, last week thorne ran for 100+, that had to look funny! But it appears they also finally just put the ball in his hands as he threw for 282 as well. Previous weeks like against cal they only let him throw 14 passes and only 1 drive they actually put him in shotgun and let him loose, shit made no sense. They often take him out and let the Ashford kid run for no yards on 1st and 2nd down then they put Thorne in on 3rd and long and wonder why he missing throws?!?!!! The shit is incredibly frustrating and as you may be able to tell boggles my fucking mind!!! I cashed easy on Miami and my dude Van Dyke roasting this AM d and I strongly believe Thorne could throw for 250+ easy and his number is 176!!! BUT, if that low cause they have no clue wtf auburn gonna do on offense any more than I do, I honestly don’t think Auburn has any kind of freaking plan, far as I can tell they come into these games and just throw shit at the wall and see if it sticks!! I’d love to think last week was a sign they have figured out the key to offense is letting the guy you brought it do what he does best but the fact he ran it double digit times doesn’t exactly make me feel warm and fuzzy!! I dunno, I know Thorne could hit this number by halftime but I also know I could be sitting in front my tv throwing shit like I have basically every time I’ve bet a auburn prop or total!!!
 
I will add if Aggies can score some points it might force auburn into letting Thorne throw, that might be the key. I thought Cal failing to score shit despite startling drives in plus territory allowed these idiots to keep running awful offensive sets. So maybe the better question is what can the Aggies offense do?
 
Thorne rush yards at 23.5 is a tempting ass under too! lol. Man I should just move past this game! The only reason this number in the 20s cause he somehow ran for 100+ on freaking samford!! Even if they decide to have him try running double digit times it shouldn’t equate to shit for yards against a real d, I dunno if you have seen this guy run but it not exactly pretty! He had 8 carry’s for 2 yards vs cal! Long of 8, he was obviously sacked a few times which he should be sacked here as well: he only had 15 rush yards vs umass, until last week auburn mostly brought in Ashford whenever they wanted to run the qb, more genius coaching since nobody scared of that kid throwing a pass!!! Anyways, if dude goes over this rush total whoever running the Aggies d should be fired on the spot!
 
I always hate the QB rushing yards prop because the sacks count against you.
absolutely 100% would never play QB rushing yards unless I had at least a 50% advantage. Hard pass.

I rarely play college props of my own, so I rely on other people to do the research for me, but one I found that I liked
Braelon Allen o74.5 yards rushing. Seems very low to me. :bong:
 
absolutely 100% would never play QB rushing yards unless I had at least a 50% advantage. Hard pass.

I rarely play college props of my own, so I rely on other people to do the research for me, but one I found that I liked
Braelon Allen o74.5 yards rushing. Seems very low to me. :bong:

I mean to each is own but I’m well aware of the sacks and I either make sure I’m not real worried about them or in some cases like jaylen Daniels I know he will hit long enough runs to overcome a few sacks, or I am confident the number or rushes will more than make up for losing some yards. Im not a great tracker of my stuff even tho I have note books full of every play but I’m incredibly confident in saying I hit qb rush props at a really high clip.

Far as this game goes Uva has yet to record a sack this year, I’m incredibly confident Armstrong will run 10+ times, and through this career only very good, fast, aggressive front 7s have held him under this number. Far as I can tell Uva defense doesn’t really fit that bill.

I’m certainly not trying to convince anyone to do anything, it your money, saying ncaa qb rush props are not good plays because of sacks it a total fallacy tho. Good luck
 
Of course now that I’ve said that Uva will devise a plan to keep Armstrong in the pocket and have 5 sacks, lol. If That happens I’ll eat it and move on cause he hits this number in this game way more often than not imo. I dunno what a “50% advantage” means or how you calculate that? I know he gonna run it 10+ times against a defense that 105th in the country in ypc allowed, by my math that equals 50+ yards and said defense I can’t see recording more than 1-2 sacks and that being generous. I dunno, it might win it might lose, but I’ll keep playing them and feel pretty good I get more right than not:
 
I mean to each is own but I’m well aware of the sacks and I either make sure I’m not real worried about them or in some cases like jaylen Daniels I know he will hit long enough runs to overcome a few sacks, or I am confident the number or rushes will more than make up for losing some yards. Im not a great tracker of my stuff even tho I have note books full of every play but I’m incredibly confident in saying I hit qb rush props at a really high clip.

Far as this game goes Uva has yet to record a sack this year, I’m incredibly confident Armstrong will run 10+ times, and through this career only very good, fast, aggressive front 7s have held him under this number. Far as I can tell Uva defense doesn’t really fit that bill.

I’m certainly not trying to convince anyone to do anything, it your money, saying ncaa qb rush props are not good plays because of sacks it a total fallacy tho. Good luck
And NCSU has only given up 3 sacks in 3 games. One was against VMI, but still.
 
It would be awesome if A) I had any clue which ducks running back would get the most work and B) I could trust the ducks to be smart and instead of get into a up and down crazy shoot out with Cu that they would run run and run some more. I hate that buffs facing all the high octane faced paced pac12 teams right out the conf schedule gates, no matter what I think of how good Cu is or isn’t, I really don’t know where I would rank Colorado? I do know imo they are the most matchup dependent far as results of any team maybe ever! I could make a list of teams outside the top 25 I think be a nightmare for them, you put them up against Michigan, Norte Dame, Utah, they are gonna have real problems. They face tcu, even ducks, usc, I think they have a fighting chance cause the one area they do match up is qb and skill positions, plus they run a fast paced, pass heavy offense. Scoring a bunch on them isn’t the way to knock them out! Controlling the clock and pressuring them on their limited possessions the path to crushing this team! I just don’t know what the ducks will do? There gonna be some props cashing here, if they want Nix to light the scoreboard up I think he can easily throw for 300+, with hunter out buffs best corner is a kid fsu was gonna move to safety, he might be fine but what does that do to their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th dbs?? That said if I’m ducks I’m gonna run a bunch, problem is they one these teams that give 3-4 different kids carry’s, man I hate that for our purposes!!!

Draft kings is only listing one of ducks running backs right now, Bucky Irving who I do think the best bet to get dd touches but it not a kick, one the other guys could get hot, who knows? The last 2 seasons he has gotten dd rushes in every game since week 3 last year other than week 1 cup cake game where he got 100+ on 4 carry’s, lol. Unfortunately I’m not the only one with this idea cause I saw his total in the 70s the other day and now he up to 84.5!! He could certainly get this but the issue is he will have to bust one and average a tick above 7ypc! I think to be safe we can only assume 12 attempts, maybe the fact Cu offense goes fast will bump him a few more, he got 20 vs udub last year which maybe a sign ducks might run a bit more here? 19 vs ucla but we can’t trust he gets more than 12 or so: as much im looking to play running backs against Cu I think there be better weeks as I don’t want to guess he gets more touches or gamble that he bust one which I do think he could certainly do!!


I think it a little crazy that Nix passing yards is lower than Sanders but again it comes down to game plan and game script. If ducks do jump out to a lead and maybe run a bit more while sanders is chucking it all over to come back then obviously the path for his yards is there. Just based off matchups against the defenses I prefer Nix. Not sure I can play him over 312.5 (this number already been bet up a few yards too). I think maybe his wr Franklin ov 82.5 id look at 1st., You think I’d really want to be on some props in this game and I do but it a tougher game for me to feel locked in on any One player with confidence.
 
Another one im on alresdy,

Shipley ov 19.5 rec yards.., I think noles are gonna get this into a game script tigers have to throw, don’t think clemson wrs are anything special, they have to get the ball into Shipley hands and I’d think stopping him from running would be priority number 1!! He had 6 catches for 29 vs duke, last year he had 6 for 48 in a game they lead vs fsu. It tough for me to see a world he doesn’t get 20+ rec yards, I guess if you think tigers dominate w the run game and lead wire to wire but I don’t think that happening.
I also played this.
 
For the morning game it just the Shipley rec prop and

Gabriel ov 259.5 pass yards. Talked about already, little bit of guessing here and if Ou d dominates he might not need this but I have a suspicion the way to attack cincy is thru the air and think he have enough time to expose them.
 
My only concern w All was:is more weather related then him or the number. I been playing Lachey ov 43/44 every week, I don’t think iowa wants to use te less now? According to @HUNT and I’m sure you know this @B.A.R. All was a high recruit for Michigan so im assuming he plenty talented, he been involved even when Lachey was playing so I’m assuming he healthy, I guess I dunno if he can handle full game of work? Figure McNamara probably has decent chemistry w him if they were both on Wolverines.. where else iowa gonna throw?
 
Played

Travis under 243.5 p yards -- 58>50
Shipley over 66.5 r yards -- 125>100
D or ST score -- 150 > 350

I really was torn on shipley rush or receiving, obviously he could hit both, I just think/hope game script has them throwing more at some point and I think noles can get into the backfield so dumping it off to Shipley seems like a good idea. He had 46 or so vs noles last year. Gl buddy
 
Thorne rush yards at 23.5 is a tempting ass under too! lol. Man I should just move past this game! The only reason this number in the 20s cause he somehow ran for 100+ on freaking samford!! Even if they decide to have him try running double digit times it shouldn’t equate to shit for yards against a real d, I dunno if you have seen this guy run but it not exactly pretty! He had 8 carry’s for 2 yards vs cal! Long of 8, he was obviously sacked a few times which he should be sacked here as well: he only had 15 rush yards vs umass, until last week auburn mostly brought in Ashford whenever they wanted to run the qb, more genius coaching since nobody scared of that kid throwing a pass!!! Anyways, if dude goes over this rush total whoever running the Aggies d should be fired on the spot!

Damn, this was a money under! Think he at -34 yards! Lmao, just note to self, I can play unders too!!!! One day I’ll figure it out!!!
 
Milroe ov 46.5 rush yards.

Little bit a guess here, I wouldn’t say this close to my strongest qb rush props as I I’m not sure this will be bama plan but I think they should use these big boys up front and dial Milroe up to do what he does best!!
 
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