Week 4: Back in Ohio w Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD 9-12

Obviously, not having a very good year so far...this Saturday will be my first weekend to really sit at home and watch a bunch of games so hopefully it will be instructive for me...Berkeley last weekend was great, what a beautiful setting to see a game...who care that your team sucks if you live there?


MAC Schedule:

W Michigan @ Iowa -16.5

Vanderbilt @ UMass +32

Ball State @ E Michigan +10.5

Kent State @ Penn State -21

Cincinnati @ Miami +22.5

UL Lafayette @ Akron +7.5

Toledo @ C Michigan +13

E Illinois @ NIU

Murray State @ BG

Austin Peay @ Ohio U.

(Buffalo OFF)


Week 4 card:

Ga Tech -6.5 for 1 unit (-115)
SJ State +4.5 for 1 unit
Clemson/Ball State/Oregon State ML parlay for 1.5 units to win 1.28
Mizzou -2 for 1 unit
Arkansas +1 for 1 unit
Clemson -13.5 for 1 unit
Clemson TT Over 39.5 for 1 unit (-120)
La. Lafayette -5.5 for 1 unit
Kansas State +5.5 for 1 unit
Ball State -9.5 for 1 unit
Toledo/Ball St/Minnesota Vikings 1 unit to win 1.09
San Jose St over 23.5 pts for half unit (-115)
 
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Played Ga. Tech, worried it would creep to 7...Tech throughly destroyed UNC last year, hung 68 on em...ran for 380 yards @ nearly 6 a clip. This year, Lee is proving to be quite a passing threat as well which will just compound problems for UNC. Love Paul Johnson as a coach and I dont see UNC keeping this under double digits...
 
Played San Jose before it crossed a key number...Minnesota has given up 226, 253, and 162 pass yards this year...not bad except we are talking about some shit bag teams.
Going to be a different story with the very accurate passer Fales picking on some new corners. Minny has had a number of lucky scores this year punt returns, fumble returns, kickoff returns, block FG Tds, 90 yard pick 6s...etc...not sure how tough they really are from scrimmage on offense.
SJ State is undersized but I liked how they tackled against Stanford and thought they competed well defensively. And Minny is not nearly a physical as Stanford.
I like the off week for SJ to rest up and I just think they will have their way in the passing game, and Minny wont be able to match without a bunch of special teams TDs...
 
Nothing really jumping out at me in the MAC. I'd like to take Ball State because no way that E Michigan can hang in that game but still licking my wounds from losing a big lead in Denton last week. Not sure I want to go back to the well @ double digits but it looks good...Miami is terrible but how good is Cincy really? They laid an egg vs. Illini...
 
I think the GT defense is improved but any fear that UNC can score with them in that game? ( lean GT myself ). Fedora is just an offensive wizard and the Heels QB is no slouch. Over 500 against mtsu and the south Carolina performance was hardly bad for that offense. Year two so it makes sense. Huge loss was the RB ( and he was a great player ) but not a huge fan of valuing that too much ( though I am guilty of doing just that with unc ). MTSU followed that bad defensive performance with a good defensive performance against Memphis who is being backed like it is free money against a quality Arkansas state team. Backdoor could be open. Agree with you on it .. just wondering if you are seeing the same concerns
 
Seems like a classic spot for Akron to come out and shit the bed...Everyone walking around campus being told oh that was so sweet when you guys almost beat Michigan....UL Lafayette getting some line value
 
VK said:
I think the GT defense is improved but any fear that UNC can score with them in that game? ( lean GT myself ). Fedora is just an offensive wizard and the Heels QB is no slouch. Over 500 against mtsu and the south Carolina performance was hardly bad for that offense. Year two so it makes sense. Huge loss was the RB ( and he was a great player ) but not a huge fan of valuing that too much ( though I am guilty of doing just that with unc ). MTSU followed that bad defensive performance with a good defensive performance against Memphis who is being backed like it is free money against a quality Arkansas state team. Backdoor could be open. Agree with you on it .. just wondering if you are seeing the same concerns
Click to expand...

Somewhat. I do think Renner is a decent QB....however, it looked like Tech handled Duke pretty well, only about 250 total yards, 122 in the air...that's fairly stout on the road.
8 starters back this year...figured we would see a capable defense vs. UNC who will be pass-happy I would think...I guess its a concern about not enough to keep me off of them
 
Serious class relief this week for Toledo who heads out on the road to play C Michigan...not Fla or Mizzou like previous weeks....Toledo has gone for 50, 44 and 42 in the previous 3 games vs. CMich.
And C Mich has lost Zurlon Tipton and their starting QB. The new Chips Qb had 2 picks last week and I would think that Toledo will stack the box vs. CMU and dare him to make some throws. I'm considering laying the points with Toledo...
 
Doesn't look like E Michigan did much last week other than knock Rutgers QB out of the game..so Butgers stayed on the ground. EMU FG kicker missed 2 makeable ones and they scored their lone TD on a flea flicker...same old EMU I guess...might have to hold my nose and take Ball State again...
 
Marsski said:
Somewhat. I do think Renner is a decent QB....however, it looked like Tech handled Duke pretty well, only about 250 total yards, 122 in the air...that's fairly stout on the road.
8 starters back this year...figured we would see a capable defense vs. UNC who will be pass-happy I would think...I guess its a concern about not enough to keep me off of them
Click to expand...


Ya but thinking maybe that is a product of Duke. Anyway, best of luck there .. I always cheer for you and for that GT coach ( though as a bettor I like Fedora too )
 
MAC injury notes:
Just saw that Terrance Owens got knocked out late in the game last week for Toledo. He is questionable to play vs. C Michigan. Back-up is an unproven freshman. There goes my lean to the Rockets...
Archer doubtful to play vs. Penn State, still not back from week 1.
 
mrob said:
ull and ball look good in the mac games, gl this week
Click to expand...

Good luck to you as well, mrob...Agree on ULL, hoping to see it come down a tad...Ball State should win big but 0 points last week in the second half has me hesitating...
 
Not sure I understand this spread in Bloomington...Indiana beats Indiana State, loses to Navy, and beats BG and they are nearly favored at home to a lower-tier SEC team who had the week off?
They gave up 444 rushing yards to Navy for god's sakes...
I got to think that Mizzou's pass defense with two seniors and two juniors including an all conference guy is going to be better than BG who was giving big-time yards to shit-bag Kent...
So I get the better defense, the better QB, the more athletic team, the same or better coach....and they are well-rested. I hardly think Indiana even at night compares to places like the Swamp and Kyle Field where Franklin has already played...
 
first weekend to really sit at home and watch a bunch of games so hopefully it will be instructive for me
Click to expand...

Finally a weekend at home to root ur teams to a win

Clemson/Ball State/Oregon State ML parlay for 1.5 units to win 1.28
Click to expand...
like this parlay a lot

Mizzou -2 for 1 unit
Click to expand...
i looked at Mizzou earlier and saw where this is there 1st rd game and Indiana set to take
on its fourth consecutive home game and now playing with a lot of confidence. IU played its best
defensive game in recent memory in dominating 42-10 blowout over MAC BG which cost me big. I wanted to take Mizzzou but Sudfeld is hot @70.6%, 10 TDs and 2 ints and I read where Pinkel is concerned about his D.
I will just have to root for u on this one

GL and enjoy ur week @ home my friend
 
bloodhound said:
Finally a weekend at home to root ur teams to a win


like this parlay a lot


i looked at Mizzou earlier and saw where this is there 1st rd game and Indiana set to take
on its fourth consecutive home game and now playing with a lot of confidence. IU played its best
defensive game in recent memory in dominating 42-10 blowout over MAC BG which cost me big. I wanted to take Mizzzou but Sudfeld is hot @70.6%, 10 TDs and 2 ints and I read where Pinkel is concerned about his D.
I will just have to root for u on this one

GL and enjoy ur week @ home my friend
Click to expand...

If Mizzous secondary isn't a bunch better than BGs I could be in trouble. The way I look at it is that I know Mizzou can win a shoot out if it comes to that with Franklin. Not sure Indiana will see as much offensive success vs different level of athlete than what Navy and BG run out there.
 
The Toledo - Missouri game could provide some insight one way or the other perhaps? I haven't thought about that game much though. Toledo was able to run the ball well on Mizzou, I know Wilson wants to run the ball more and Coleman can be good at times. I tend to think IU get's theirs on offense. The key will be what kind of plays the D can make for Hoosiers and that I do not have any kind of feel for.
 
So Rutgers can't cover vs EMich and their QB Nova gets concussed and they are favored at home to Arkansas?
Hmmmm, I think Ark might be laying for Rutgers considering that Rutgers went into Ark and won last year during the horrible 1-4 start Ark had...last year Rutgers was the meat in a Bama and Texas AM sandwich for Ark... This year it's S Miss and Tex AM.

Razorbacks haven't been on the road yet but with the way they run the ball I'm not sure it matters as much where you are playing. It looks like both starting QBs are iffy, but I think Rutgers defense is probably not worthy of being thought if as a top run D and Ark will put them on smash.
I get an angry team that will play smash mouth and has a better defense playing a concussed QB or the backup. And the Rutgers defense is missing its top returning tackler in Merrell.

I like Ark to win this one unless Nova plays very well and gives them a passing dimension. I see both teams pounding the run and I think there is a way better chance this works for Ark vs Rutgers 3 returning starters than for Rutgers vs Ark 8 returning starters. Statement game for Bielema to show the program is turning around after last years debacle at home where they blew a 10-0 lead...

Play: Arkansas +1 for 1 unit
 
s--k said:
The Toledo - Missouri game could provide some insight one way or the other perhaps? I haven't thought about that game much though. Toledo was able to run the ball well on Mizzou, I know Wilson wants to run the ball more and Coleman can be good at times. I tend to think IU get's theirs on offense. The key will be what kind of plays the D can make for Hoosiers and that I do not have any kind of feel for.
Click to expand...

Perhaps, beating BG doesn't do it for me...bad matchup for BG as you and I discussed
 
Thanks Twink...

I'd be surprised if this one didn't get out of hand tonight. 754 yards and 34 first downs last year for the Tigers. NC State Qb has thrown 3 picks and 0 TDs, and they barely beat Richmond last week. Uh-oh

ADD:

Clemson -13.5 for 1 unit
Clemson TT Over 39.5 for 1 unit (-120)
 
Clemson 40 or more pts in 9 of last 14 dating back to beginning of last year...failed to reach 40 vs. Ga this year (38), Auburn (26), Fla St (37), Va Tech (38) and S Car (17) all last year...I do not put NC State's defense in the same caliber with any of those.
 
ULL has moved enough for me...Just a fade of Akron off a near-win playing a potent offense...

Play: ULL -5.5 for 1 unit
 
I'm not saying this as a lean or endorsement on Eastern Mich this week vs Ball St, but is there a chance, just a chance that maybe EM is playing decent ball this year? They did manage to go 6-6 just a couple years ago.

Played good enough on D vs Penn St until late before they ran out of gas. Showed ok at Rutgers. Maybe EMU has little bit of a pulse again?
 
s--k said:
I'm not saying this as a lean or endorsement on Eastern Mich this week vs Ball St, but is there a chance, just a chance that maybe EM is playing decent ball this year? They did manage to go 6-6 just a couple years ago.

Played good enough on D vs Penn St until late before they ran out of gas. Showed ok at Rutgers. Maybe EMU has little bit of a pulse again?
Click to expand...

They had one 6-6 year, and a bunch of garbage years...Rutgers QB knocked out early and they went into handoff mode... Only TD came off a flea flicker. I think it's more likely we got same ol EMU with maybe a slightly better defense than most years. They just don't have much talent at the skill positions honestly. English has always been a good defensive schemes guy...If they stay close to Ball State I will have to reevaluate. You have seen them play a lot more than me so you could be onto something...just feel like I've seen this movie before...
 
Is Allen's status for Arkansas still affecting that line? I haven't kept up with it this week, but he landed on his throwing shoulder last week and didn't return.
 
M.O.T said:
Is Allen's status for Arkansas still affecting that line? I haven't kept up with it this week, but he landed on his throwing shoulder last week and didn't return.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think so...actually questions on both QBs...although it sounds like Nova will go...not sure he will last long vs. the Razorbacks...
 
ADD: Ball State -9.5 for 1 unit...not sure why Walters is messing with E Mich but I will take the 9.5 now
 
I bet Ball St -11 and about 30 minutes later it crashed down to -9.5. You can imagine how much I wish my lunch break was later in the day lol.

BOL buddy
 
Marsski said:
Played San Jose before it crossed a key number...Minnesota has given up 226, 253, and 162 pass yards this year...not bad except we are talking about some shit bag teams.
Going to be a different story with the very accurate passer Fales picking on some new corners. Minny has had a number of lucky scores this year punt returns, fumble returns, kickoff returns, block FG Tds, 90 yard pick 6s...etc...not sure how tough they really are from scrimmage on offense.
SJ State is undersized but I liked how they tackled against Stanford and thought they competed well defensively. And Minny is not nearly a physical as Stanford.
I like the off week for SJ to rest up and I just think they will have their way in the passing game, and Minny wont be able to match without a bunch of special teams TDs...
Click to expand...

I have been the fence all week with this game and I think you just pushed me off. I follow the Big Ten pretty close and Minny is not that good.

Also, I really like GT.

Good luck Marrs
 
Owens is supposed to be game-time decision and Fluellen listed as questionable for Toledo. Not sure if that is already baked into the spread or if it will move depending on information tomorrow.
 
Thanks oakas, play and Hunt... Ready for a big day. Feel good about this card

ADD: San Jose St over 23.5 pts for half unit (-115)...UNLV got 23 and NMSt 21. I think fales is good for 30 today
 
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