Week 4 1-AA Discussion

hoopsstar22

hoopsstar22

Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Lines up really early fellas.....

Hawaii (-48) hosting Charleston Southern -

Charleston Southern is in a rebuilding year this year, and just beat a worthless D2 team, (0-10 2004 0-10 2005 7-4 2006) 44-20, with 1 TD on a blocked FG return as time expired in the 1H. They'll be traveling from right on the Atlantic, clear across the country to Hawaii. I'll try and dig up some more on travel plans as the week goes on.

Another game that caught my eye was William and Mary @ VT. The early line sits at 33, and if it goes over 5 TD's, I'll be hitting it. W&M has been averaging over 530 yards on offense in their first 3 games. These big 1-A schools have been coming out flat for these "easy" win teams, so this one could be interesting.

Other games that may be interesting....

Appalachian State @ Wofford -4.... Wofford's option could create some problems for that young App D-Line.

C.Conn St. +24.5 @ W. Michigan - C Conn is good on both sides of the ball #15 in total O and #23 in D, and we saw how great W. Michigan looked against Missouri.


Anything else that may be interesting guys?
 
Last edited:
Adding....

North Dakota St +10 @ Centeral Michigan

ND St., ranked #5 in 1-AA, went 10-1 last year, with their only loss, a 10-9 grinder at Minnesota. This team returns 8 on both sides of the ball, including a pair of All-Americans, left tackle and punter, as well as one of the top QB's in 1-AA. This guy only threw 4 INTs last season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see ND St. take this one straight up.
 
frankiegotti said:
it's already at -51.5 hawaii that is.

I would of liked 48 but 51 is too much for me.
Click to expand...


I saw that jump about 5 min after I took it. If it gets up too much higher, I may take a little off, and look for a big middle, if I don't find anything on the travel plans of CS.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
Adding....

North Dakota St +10 @ Centeral Michigan

ND St., ranked #5 in 1-AA, went 10-1 last year, with their only loss, a 10-9 grinder at Minnesota. This team returns 8 on both sides of the ball, including a pair of All-Americans, left tackle and punter, as well as one of the top QB's in 1-AA. This guy only threw 4 INTs last season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see ND St. take this one straight up.
Click to expand...

I'm betting this. I'm tired of passing on these I-AA winners every week, and this one looks pretty damn good. CMU is playing horrible and I remember waiting to bet ND State sometime this year when I was looking at them in the preseason.
 
PokeyFSU said:
Has the line moved 12 points already, or is that a typo? 5d has Appy St @ -8 right now
Click to expand...

Nope... opened at Wofford -4, I knew it would drop, but a 12 point swing?

If that hits 10, it could very well be a GOY play. Wofford will control the tempo if this game, and run the ball down their fuckin' throats. You saw what Hart did against Appy St. when he was in the game. This option style offense of the mighty Terriers will create problems for the young D. Plus, this is a conference game, and Wofford is at home, they'll be all jacked up for it.

Also, Wofford played NC State much, much closer than the 38-17 score shows. They out gained them by 20 yards, even on 1st downs, but were victimized by penalties and turnovers. 15 penalties for 105 yards, and had a fumbled returned for a TD, fumbled on their own 14 which led to a quick TD, and fumbled again resulting in another TD. 21 points on turnovers won't get it done against a 1-A team on the road.

I'll hold of and see if the line gets any better.
 
Linde-

That ND St. defense is tough. They only allowed something like 65 rushing yards per game last year. They lost 2 D-liners, and 1 safety, but other than that, they have the rest back.

From what I've read, their QB is top 5, and their Left Tackle is a Walter Payton candidate (Top 1-AA player).

But they did beat Ball St. last year, and lost to Minny by 1, so these guys aren't afraid of the big games. They've been there, done that.

GL man.
 
I have to actually go to Wal-Mart?

Thanks...BTW, that shadow is me tailing your ass from now on...
 
Hoops , franki , lind , counselor , anyone ...

any thoughts on the morgan state at Hampton game this thursday night ?
I capped this at 15 but I have no confidence in my d1aa. Morgan State is coming off a pretty disappointing loss to winston salem at home and this is their first road game of the year. But they return a lot of the guys who played against hampton last year in a 19 point loss while the pirates return far less though the new starters have played well. Also, Hampton struggled a bit with Howard until late and I think Howard and Morgan State are pretty similar teams. Like Howard the Bears also have a mobile qb that could give the pirates some trouble. But then , the west virginia transfer and the offense had a break out game last week for hampton. Is my Hampton -15 off ? and is + 17 a value in your minds ?? Any help appreciated as I know I am not quite up to snuff on the d1aa yet.
 
hoops, thanks for all your hard work. Read this thread every week. I need to get a 5 Dimes account so I can contribute with these I-AA match-ups.
 
Vegas -

To be honest, I didn't give that game a look at all. I had the few I liked circled, perhaps as the week goes on, I'll dig something up on that game.

I don't "cap" games to generate a perceived line, and derive my play off that. I go basically on a feeling about the match-up and start there. Right or wrong, that what I do. The fact you even have a line is pretty good. I just try to pick spots, and hit them because 5Dimes releases what I think to be a bad line. Obviously, others think that as well, as the line always moves the way I hit it.

I'll maybe look at it in the morning and see if I find anything.
 
if you have the time, again... it would be appreciated. Deriving my own lines is always how i have done it but i have little doubt that you and the other d1aa cappers are much better than me on these games. If you are ever around and want to do a chat on d1aa and how you cap these games i would be all ears and ready to learn. At this point, i dont think i even have anywhere near the source material needed for true capping by my style. rambling but you get the idea ... desperately want another avenue to making money and appreciate any help i can get.
 
Ok Kyle, after briefly looking through the match up, I would say that Morgan State would be a decent play. The Bears rank #7 in total defense, and #10 in rushing offense, which would make for a slower game.

Howard's rush D is middle of the pack, even after playing to bottom tier teams, and offensively, to only be ranked in the 20's after playing 2 defenses in the 100's, this could shape up for a close game.
 
Also, the loss to WS State was all just a little break down under pressure. The Bears out gained them by 130 yards, 6 FD's, and held them to 90 yards rushing on 46 attempts.

Also, Hapton was playing on a short field for most of the game, with a fumble return for a TD, a 70yd Punt return, and a interception at the NCAT 14 yard line.

That's what I saw. I may think about adding .5 on it my self.

And for the record, I'm off Hawaii, and took Charleston Southern @ +53.5. Just too many variables with Colt's ankle, the long road trip they're coming back from, and just might not get up enough to cover a 50 point spread. Maybe CS can sneak in the back door and hit my middle.
 
Added...

Morgan State +17 ..... 1u

It's raining in Hampton right now, and looks to rain into the evening. Also, all the reasons above still hold true.
 
Morgan State +17 ..... 1u W

Almost got the SU win, as it was 17-17 going to overtime, but Hampton pulled out the 24-17 victory.

Congrats guys if you got on it, and thanks Kyle for making me look at it.


Pending Plays....

North Dakota State +10 .... 1u
Hawaii -48 -- Charleston Southern +53.5 .... .15u

Still Looking at.....
Wofford +9 - If it hits 10, I'll play it, still may play it at 9. Appy St.'s run D ranks 89th in 1-AA. Giving up almost 200 ypg. I understand they played Michigan, but they also played a garbage D2 team to equal things out. Wofford is averaging 309 ypg on the ground, and will be able to control the clock and the tempo of the game as its at home. Just have to grow a pair.

Arkansas Pine Bluff +28.5 @ Southern Illinois - AK PB has the #3 D in the country, but a 100+ O. I need to look into this a little more, but this seems like a ton of points to be getting with a good D.


Let me know if there is anything else you guys see.
 
lol the only thing I look at in this thread is the DOG and the DEER lol...no interest in these games at all. lol NICE PIX :)

BET BIG WIN BIG...LTDragon510
 
Great call last night guys, I took those scrappy Bears as well just for some action last night. I was mad that I had to go to the MTSU/ WKU game and 5dimes didn't have it on the board. WKU is not so bad though, they run the hell out of that spread offense and their backup freshman QB, KJ Black, is a beast. The program had him listed around 6-4 or so and he was tough to bring down. I may have to look into placing some wagers on these guys in the future. Without a few big fumbles in the first half, MTSU wouldn't have scored, nor would they have been in the game IMO. I guess it did turn out to be a productive 10 minute trip, but I woulda rather been home watchin the Canes/ aTm game.
 
Finally go it....

Wofford +10...... 1u

Let's see what that option O does to that middle of the pack D.


GL today fellas.
 
Gentlemen, just got in from work, and it was a nice weekend on the 1-AA grid. 3-0 +3u...with a Hawaii/Charleston Southern middle pending.... At worst, looking at a 2.85u profit for the week.

Thursday...
Morgan State +17 ..... 1u W... SU loss, 24-17 in OT...

Saturday.....
Wofford +10...... 1u W.. SU winner 42-31 over Appalachian State....

North Dakota State +10 .... 1u W.. SU winner 44-14 over 1-A Central Michigan ...


Hope you fellas got in on some of these.....

:cheers:




 
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