Week 3 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It was a bad week last week as the writeups went 5-9 with a few tough breaks(Cincy, Nevada, Iowa). No need to dwell on it, but the worst part was not writing up a few games that qualified as usual auto plays for me, namely Cal as a dog and NIU as a dog. I also chickened out on Houston, as I suspected they couldn't have been as bad as they showed the previous week. Live and learn. Unfortunately I tend to do a lot of "living", i.e. losing and not learning. Season record moves to 12-13. I haven't been keeping track of the units, but it's down 1 and change since I've played a couple money lines.

UNLV +7.5 WIN
Michigan -23 LOSS
South Carolina +7 WIN
Central Michigan +18.5 LOSS
North Texas +10.5 LOSS
Boston College +16 WIN
Tulane +13 LOSS
Purdue +9.5 LOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSS
Nevada +17.5 LOSS
Washington -5.5 LOSS
Oregon State +17.5 LOSS
Hawaii +4 LOSS
UCF +2 WIN
Air Force +16.5 LOSS
New Mexico +28 WIN
Mississippi State -10 LOSS


5-11 (17-24)

Friday:

1. UNLV +7.5 @Kansas (BOL): I already accidentally deleted my full writeup on this one(and it was long) and I don't have the work ethic to try and recreate it again, so this is going to be a bit abridged. We have a rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl from last year in this one, a game in which KU dropped the Rebels 49-36 in a shootout. The Rebels were torched by Jason Bean in that one to the tune of 440 yards passing on only 19 completions. However, Andy Kotelnicki was calling plays for the Jayhawks in that one, but he has moved on to bigger and better things as Penn State's OC this year. To replace him they hired Jeff Grimes, who Dave Aranda launched at Baylor last year. Their game with Illinois last week illustrated the difference in this offense now that AK is gone and Grimes is here. Last year Kansas put up 539 yards against the Illini with 17 plays going for more than 20 yards. Last week in Champaign, they had 327 yards and 2 plays over 20 yards. The same QB, running backs and wide receivers who carved up the Illini were back this year. The only difference was a slightly rebuilt OL and the Grimes for Kotelnicki trade. in 305 attempts as the primary starter in 2022 and the first 3 games of 2023, Jalon Daniels completed 68.5% of his passes for 8.91 yards per attempt and threw only 5 picks. In 47 passes under Grimes, he's completed 57% at 6.05 yards per attempt and has already throws 4 interceptions. The offense UNLV will be going against this time is shell of its former self. Kansas covered that game last year, but it represents the only time under Barry Odom tat the Rebels have failed to cover away from home (7-0 in the regular season) and also the only time they failed to cover as an underdog (6-0 in the reg season). They are 12-4 ATS overall since Odom got here, so they represent sort of an auto pay in my opinion. On the field they'll match up much better since they added captain playmaker Jalen Catalon to their secondary, and new QB Sluka has no fear of going down field to AA candidate Ricky White. It took them awhile, but Illinois had all kinds of success downfield as soon as Luke Altmyer decided to air it out, so Kansas figures to be susceptible to giving up big plays to White. KU is at home in this one, but field renovations in Lawrence have forced them to play their home games in KC this year, and this one's in the MLS stadium in the outskirts of KC. I'll take the super capable dog with revenge on their mind against an offense that is a shell of it's former self.

Good job by the Rebels here. KU offense just is not the same, Daniels made another big mistake. Sluka was not good throwing the ball, but it was enough
 
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EL CAPO said:
grimes is awful agree. interesting getting catalon from the sec, he was a stud
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Yep, Catalon was mentioned in the ill fated first draft. Voted captain and immediately grabs a pick 6 off of Donovan Smith in Houston. Their defense is much improved and he's a big part of it.
 
2. @Michigan -23 v Arkansas State: I've liked Arky State quite a bit even since Jaylen Raynor has taken over at QB for the Red Wolves, but this is an overreaction to Michigan getting stomped by Texas last week. You could have gotten 22 yesterday, but I think under 24 is do-able here. Michigan is going to be ready to unload some frustration in this game, and their front 7 will make life a living hell for Raynor since they won't have a prayer of running the ball. Offensively we know Michigan can't compete with the likes of Texas, but they can bully Arkansas State, and I'm sure even Davis Warren will be able to find holes in their pass defense, as they rank 114th in coverage, and Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings are likely to have a field day with the 128th ranked tackling defense per PFF. Keep in mind that Michigan was a -20 favorite against Fresno in week 1 and almost covered it. Now they'll be hyper motivated to lay it on in this one and they'll only need to cover a FG more. This one sets up as a terrible spot for Arkansas State.

The game went similar to how I thought it would, but 23 is just too much for this Michigan team. Warren threw 3 picks that either took Michigan points off the board or led to points for Arky. Yards were something like 285-45 into the third quarter, but they folded when favorites usually put the game away.
 
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3. @South Carolina +7 v LSU: What a difference a week makes. Last week i was sitting here unable to fathom South Carolina winning at Kentucky, only to watch them completely dominate the Cats to the tune of a 31-6 shellacking despite getting less than 300 yards on offense. Will they do much better than that on offense this week? Well, they'll be playing a defense that we thought had perhaps turned a corner against USC, but looked underwhelming and couldn't get off the field at times last week against Nicholls. Now stud DL Jacobian Guillory is out for the year, and on offense they appear to be very one dimensional because they can't run the ball without John Emery. Their offense has been just ok, and that's with a much better than anticipated performance thus far by Garrett Nussmeier. Now Nussmeier will be going up against the best pass rushing DL in the country so far who absolutely dismantled Brock Vandagriff last week. If they can't run on the Cocks(and they haven't really run on anyone so far this year), it will be open season on Nussmeier, who isn't very mobile. South Carolina is also limited offensively, but LSU is a major step down from Kentucky on that side of the ball. The energy was good for South Carolina and it'll be great over the weekend. I'll take the points in this one.

This game had some horrific officiating, and it cost South Carolina the game in my opinion. The fact that South Carolina had to use Ashford for so long, and that he actually administered a potential game tying drive is not a good sign for the LSU defense. South Carolina was the right side here for sure.
 
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4. Central Michigan +18.5 @Illinois(Bet Rivers): Central Michigan was bludgeoned last week at FIU, losing 52-16 a week after they dominated FCS Central Connecticut 66-10. The FIU fiasco was due largely to 6 turnovers, 5 courtesy of INTs served up by Iowa reject QB Joey Labas. CMU actually outgained FIU in the game, but they certainly were not good. The Illini on the other hand had one of the bigger wins in the Bielema era as they knocked off Kansas in front of a sellout crowd on a beautiful night in Champaign. The Illini were fortunate however, as they got 4 turnovers, including 3 INTs from Jalon Daniels. Good for them, and they are #1 in the country currently in turnover margin(+7), while CMU is among the dregs of the country in that area(-5). Maybe it continues, but that pace for both seems hard to sustain. What we have here is one team coming off about the worst performance they could possibly conjure up, totally pissed off and ready to redeem themselves(and with a great chance against a Power 4 team). On the other hand we have a team that's been fortunate and has spent the past week feeling on top of the world. CMU and Labas showed they have some juice(albeit against a weak FCS squad) in week 1. Labas has made some strides despite the Lotto performance(pick 5?)last week. He has 4 big time throws per PFF (and 5 TO worthy plays) and RB Myles Bailey has looked good, averaging 7.4 yards per carry(8 carries for 54 yards last week, so not all the heavy lifting was done against CCSU). He's also averaging 5+ yards after contact, so if the Illini defense decides to just roll their helmets out there, he'll make them rethink that. Offensively Illinois has been ok in the passing game, but I don't think they'll run at will on the Chips because they have had fleeting success in the run game thus far against a couple teams you'd expect them to dominate. I think you'll get a 95 percentile effort from CMu coming off that debacle last week, and at the same time I think you'll see about a 60 percentile effort from Illinois. The Illini aren't a good home favorite under Bielema(5-9) and they'll have plenty of reasons to be overconfident here. I think it'll be relatively close, and if CMU takes care of the ball and Illinois has some TO luck regression themselves, they might find themselves in a dogfight.

Everything I wrote here was pretty much how the game went. The yardage total wasn't that different, Illinois couldn't run effectively except in a couple rare instances where they used quick developing runs that didn't take 5 seconds for the back to be moving forward. It was a push for those that put this in on Saturday. It would have been a win if CMU could have scored a single TD on one of their 3 good drives rather than 3 FGs, or if Illinois's backup kicker didn't make a 59 yard FG against the wind to end the first half.
 
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5. North Texas +10.5 @Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are certainly capable of scoring, and I'm sure they'll get their points in this one against the Mean Green, but in order to cover double digits, you have to be able to stop someone, and they haven't shown any evidence they can do anything resembling that. In game one they gave up 51 points, 615 yards(!!) and 500+ passing yards to Abilene Christian. In week two they gave up 300+ yards on the ground to Washington State and found a way to be inefficient enough to outgain the Cougs 491-416 and still lose by 21. Now they face a Mean Green offense that features TCU transfer Chandler Morris(who originally beat out Max Duggan in 2022 don't forget). He's gotten comfortable fast in new coach Eric Morris's system(no relation), as he's averaged 8.7 yards per attempt on the way to 500+ yards in their two games so far this year. Morris, you might remember, was a stud receiver for Tech in the mid 2000s, so there's a cutesy-pie backstory in this game to boot! North Texas looks like the best offense Tech has seen so far this year, so we can certainly expect lots of yards and likely a lot of points curtesy of UNT. If Tech continues with their penchant for lots of activity without accomplishment, we might see an outright for Morris and company. RB Demashija Harris is averaging 10.7 yards per carry for the Green and receivers Damon Ward and DT Sheffield have caught 13 balls apiece, with Ward going for 17 yards per clip, so Morris has playmakers all over the offense. UNT will have to contend with Tajh Brooks, who is an elite back for Tech, but he's been hobbled and is questionable after missing last week with an undisclosed injury. Tech will have to be much more efficient than they have been if they want to cover this, and I think they'll be more than happy with getting out of there with a win.

Boy I can really pick these underdogs. Find the dogs who can give up 60+? I'm your man. This was one of many that were over in the first 5 minutes. I know TT is a pretty good offensive team, but 52 points in the first half? Come on Mean Green.
 
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6. Boston College +16 @Missouri: There's a lot of hype behind Missouri this year based on the great year they had last year and the return of a large number of their contributors on offense. This will be the first sniff of decent competition this year as they've shut out both Murray State and Buffalo in the first two weeks. Missouri's strength is in the passing game with receivers Wease, Burden and Cooper, but despite getting some transfers to roll in, i think they'll struggle to run it without Cory Schrader, who was their captain and unquestioned leader last year. They also haven't been all that impressive in the passing game so far, with QB Brady Cook ranking in the bottom 10% of QBs in PFF grade. He hasn't made a big time throw yet, and is averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt. Defensively, they'll finally be challenged, and I think we'll see some cracks in the armor there. They had 5 defensive players drafted in the first 5 rounds with 2 going in the first two rounds. Mizzou is a solid program, but programs at their level don't just reload and replace 5 NFL guys in one year. BC comes in as a legit threat on both sides of the ball. Thomas Castellanos can run it and actually grades out on PFF as the #1 QB in the country averaging 13.4 yards per attempt and sporting a 6/0 ratio. We know he can run, and BC ranks 19th in the country in yards per play against. Bill O'Brien is no dummy and the Eagles looked very well coached in their dismantling of Florida State in their opener. I think O'Brien can have them ready to go, and games like this have been consistently going to the dogs. It seems to be a dereliction of duty to miss taking the points here.

Didn't watch a ton of this one. Glad it worked out, but I think I was a little lucky here. I don't think Mizzou played well. I thought BC would be able to match them on the field for the most part, but Mizzou was clearly the significantly better team. I'll take it though.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. @South Carolina +7 v LSU: What a difference a week makes. Last week i was sitting here unable to fathom South Carolina winning at Kentucky, only to watch them completely dominate the Cats to the tune of a 31-6 shellacking despite getting less than 300 yards on offense. Will they do much better than that on offense this week? Well, they'll be playing a defense that we thought had perhaps turned a corner against USC, but looked underwhelming and couldn't get off the field at times last week against Nicholls. Now stud DL Jacobian Guillory is out for the year, and on offense they appear to be very one dimensional because they can't run the ball without John Emery. Their offense has been just ok, and that's with a much better than anticipated performance thus far by Garrett Nussmeier. Now Nussmeier will be going up against the best pass rushing DL in the country so far who absolutely dismantled Brock Vandagriff last week. If they can't run on the Cocks(and they haven't really run on anyone so far this year), it will be open season on Nussmeier, who isn't very mobile. South Carolina is also limited offensively, but LSU is a major step down from Kentucky on that side of the ball. The energy was good for South Carolina and it'll be great over the weekend. I'll take the points in this one.
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Its hard for me to comprehend this to be honest. I watched SC look like a mediocre Sun Belt team at home against ODU. The offense looked like it would struggle to move in high school. DL is def legit though. I gotta look into this one more, but I think LSU might be able to get right. Good luck!
 
Dollaz said:
Its hard for me to comprehend this to be honest. I watched SC look like a mediocre Sun Belt team at home against ODU. The offense looked like it would struggle to move in high school. DL is def legit though. I gotta look into this one more, but I think LSU might be able to get right. Good luck!
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Didn't mean that as your analysis is wrong, meaning it as how could anyone believe in that team. (I didn't see game vs. Kentucky)
 
Dollaz said:
Didn't mean that as your analysis is wrong, meaning it as how could anyone believe in that team. (I didn't see game vs. Kentucky)
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Yeah I get it. I was on Kentucky last week because of how bad SC looked against ODU. I just don't don't have faith that the LSU interior OL can get the push in the run game and being one dimensional against that SC pass rush is not a great recipe. Low scoring game probably, just like the points there.
 
I like Tulsa, but I'm going to hold off on that because I think there might be some money coming in on Oklahoma State later. Line down to 18, think we can get better.
 
7. Tulane +13 @Oklahoma: I'm a little afraid that this might be a bit of an overreaction to how Oklahoma has looked the past couple weeks, but the data available makes this one impossible to pass up, especially considering that Oklahoma has a huge game with Tennessee looming next week. Anyone using power ratings or preseason numbers would be inclined to jump all over a line this short, but that would be ignoring what we've seen with our own eyeballs so far. First of all, it's beginning to look like Jackson Arnold, despite being deemed the next big thing at QB for OU, if not the guy. In games against Houston and Temple, he's failed to even crack 10 yards per completion, which should be a given in college, and OU ranks 108th in overall yards per play and 121st in yards per pass attempt. He's certainly not been good, but he hasn't gotten much help either. The assumed top RB coming into the year for OU was Gavin Shewchuk, and he's only got 19 yards on 10 carries. The OL has been a mess, mostly due to injuries, and that hasn't gotten better this week as they lost another OL for the season this week. They are down to true freshmen and depth type transfers that they're counting on. Their receiving corps are also totally banged up. Jahlil Farooq is out, Nic Anderson hasn't played and a couple other guys they were expecting big things from are out for the year. They have Deion Burks and Anderson at least returned to practice this week, but with Tennessee looming, are they going to risk playing him? I don't have a whole lot of faith in that offense. On the other side, Tulane proved last week that they are again a legit squad, and although he'll face a major step up in class against Stutsmann and the OU defense, QB Darian Mensah is tops in the country in yards per pass attempt(13.3!!) and Mehkai Hughes has pretty much picked up where he left off running the ball from last year. Any defense coached by Jon Sumrall is going to be competitive, and as I mentioned, OU has not shown any evidence that they can pile on any points against a competent defense thus far. Ultimately I don't trust OU to cover this, especially when they had to white knuckle it to get past Houston by the skin of their teeth last week.

This was a bit of a joke. Oklahoma's offense had looked bad, it was bad again. Arnold can't throw, but somehow he ran for 90+ yards and two TDs. That was not a facet of the Oklahoma offense that I had previously considered could be notable. Also, the dreaded "go for it on 4th on your own 20 with enough time for the decisive spread losing field goal" thing hit us in this game.
 
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8. @Purdue +9.5 v Notre Dame(BOL): Another potential overreaction, but again, we have to look at what the games are telling us. Maybe ND is better on the road? They better hope so, because although NIU is no slouch, that was not a fluke last week. NIU outgained the Irish by 100 yards, beat them on a per play basis on the ground, through the air, you name it. At times, Riley Leonard looked pretty much incapable of moving the ball downfield, and maybe that's due to his injured shoulder, but it's pretty evident. Honestly, if I heard that they decided to go with the backup Angelis, I might back off this as I think he might be a better option throwing the ball considering how he looked when he was in there last year. Since Leonard's injury is on his non-throwing shoulder, it hurts him more in the run game, which can be even more damaging for the Irish considering that's been the major benefit that he has brought throughout his career. Even though Purdue is picked for last in the Big ten by many, I think they are potentially much better than people give them credit for. They are capable offensively with Hudson Card back there, who I feel is severely underrated, and maybe ND's defense isn't as good as we thought, considering how NIU got whatever they wanted and A&M's offense now appears completely bereft of playmakers. Purdue has some playmakers at receiver and I've always been a fan of Devin Mockabee if he can avoid fumbling. Defensively they were bad last year, but Ryan Walters is a very smart defensive coach, and this is the type of offense that he feasted on when he was at Illinois. They've had two weeks to prepare for ND, and I there's definitely a pedigree for upsets in West Lafayette. If ND comes in and takes care of business, I'll tip my cap, but even if they're spitting nails, they still have to be crisp offensively, and I think Purdue is good enough to keep them from being successful just because they REALLY REALLY want to.

Hey Ryan Walters: Get out. And when you go back to being a defensive coordinator somewhere, please remember to tell your players that falling down in front of a ball carrier does not constitute "tackling". Also, you might want to get some players who can lift a 15 pound weight, because it appears you have nobody on either line that can do that.

In all seriousness, a lesson can be learned here. Teams that were embarrassed are very dangerous the next week. (Kentucky also proved this, and I just couldn't muster the courage to fade Georgia in that one)
 
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9. Nevada +17.5(-115) @Minnesota(BOL): Although I lost on the Wolf Pack last week, I certainly won't be scared off them in this situation. This team is still significantly better than what most observers game them credit for, and they've proved it in all three games they've played. In the game last week against Georgia Southern, they outgained the Eagles 498-285 but ended up losing because of a fumble into the end zone as RB Savion Red was scoring, and being stopped on downs late. Earlier they won on the road at troy and played SMU extremely well, holding the Mustangs to only 2.9 yards rushing and shutting down what many considered to be a top 20ish offense. They're getting 17.5 here, and I can't say that I believe Minnesota to be a team that can get that kind of margin on a well coached and competent team like Nevada. The Gophers lost o tough one to North Carolina in week 1 then handled FCS Rhode Island easily in week 2. Their defensive numbers are good, but they were fortunate to face UNC without starter Max Johnson for most of the second half. The Gophers got their top RB Darius Taylor back last week, but he only ended up with 64 yards on 14 carries, and their run game ranks 117th in yards per carry despite playing Rhode Island and a North Carolina defense that previously had not been lauded for being stout against the run. Fleck always plays at a snail's pace, and although they like new QB Max Brosmer, he hasn't done a ton yet. This game looks like a competitive one to me, and Minnesota has many examples under Fleck in the past where they've struggled mightily in the non-con in this spread range. I like the Wolf Pack here. They still seem undervalued to me, and I'll probably keep looking at them until they prove otherwise.

I thought the max points Minnesota could score was probably in the worst case, 27. Unfortunately, 10 points was too much of an ask for Nevada. The Wolf Pack "proved otherwise"
 
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Br@ssknux said:
How's the backup Dollaz? I know Wilson was a turnover machine. Any chance it's not a downgrade?
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Yeah it is hard to imagine a QB worse than Wilson. He looks the part but cannot process things fast enough.
I planned to take ODU 1st half +7.5 since they will be at home and are always jacked up to play VT. It seems that VT has to wait until the halftime to make any adjustments. May need to rethink with a new QB.
 
10. Washington -5.5 v Washington State (BetRivers): The Apple Cup happens in September now as a result of all the realignment, so no more snowstorms on the Pallouse that bury the Huskies as Bledsoe leads the Cougs on to victory. (I'm old enough to remember watching that one). This game is at the Lumen Field(Seahawks). Washington has dominated this game lately, but Wazzou almost spoiled the party for the Huskies last year and DeBoer had to go for it on 4th down in his own territory to eventually save the game. This year both teams are completely turned over, especially Washington with the arrival of Jedd Fisch and the exit of just about everyone from last year's team. Washington State has played Texas Tech, which represents the only non-creampuff on either schedule and QB John Mateer ran all over the Red Raiders to the tune of almost 200 yards. Washington comes in having had no issues with Eastern Michigan and Weber State. Former Mississippi State QB Will Rogers has taken over at QB for the Huskies and he's got about 11 years of experience it seems. Fisch also brought along RB Jonah Coleman from Arizona, and he's been an absolute beast, averaging 8.6 yards per carry and 6.7 yards after contact. The whole team has graded out extremely high, as they've looked a lot like Arizona did last year, and that's bad news for Dickert and the Cougs because Arizona came to Pullman last year and won 44-6 with a 506-245 yard edge. Washington State looks a little one dimensional to me as Mateer didn't really throw it effectively on Texas Tech, but he didn't need to because they ran all over them. I don't see that happening in this one, and I don't think that defense is going to be able to handle Coleman since they rank near the bottom of FBS is tackling so far this year. Rogers has solid experience, I think Fisch and company take care of business in Seattle.

Who knows on this one. Washington moved the ball whenever they wanted but couldn't score. Good job by the Cougs. Put them in the playoff if they sweep the Mountain West schedule.
 
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He Hate Me said:
Yeah it is hard to imagine a QB worse than Wilson. He looks the part but cannot process things fast enough.
I planned to take ODU 1st half +7.5 since they will be at home and are always jacked up to play VT. It seems that VT has to wait until the halftime to make any adjustments. May need to rethink with a new QB.
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Similar to my thoughts
 
GL this week Knux -- love the info/write-ups -- great to see you backing the UW here..LFG
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @South Carolina +7 v LSU: What a difference a week makes. Last week i was sitting here unable to fathom South Carolina winning at Kentucky, only to watch them completely dominate the Cats to the tune of a 31-6 shellacking despite getting less than 300 yards on offense. Will they do much better than that on offense this week? Well, they'll be playing a defense that we thought had perhaps turned a corner against USC, but looked underwhelming and couldn't get off the field at times last week against Nicholls. Now stud DL Jacobian Guillory is out for the year, and on offense they appear to be very one dimensional because they can't run the ball without John Emery. Their offense has been just ok, and that's with a much better than anticipated performance thus far by Garrett Nussmeier. Now Nussmeier will be going up against the best pass rushing DL in the country so far who absolutely dismantled Brock Vandagriff last week. If they can't run on the Cocks(and they haven't really run on anyone so far this year), it will be open season on Nussmeier, who isn't very mobile. South Carolina is also limited offensively, but LSU is a major step down from Kentucky on that side of the ball. The energy was good for South Carolina and it'll be great over the weekend. I'll take the points in this one.
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Surprised lsu is still such a passing team, I get it they get redic wrs there I just thought after Daniels left Kelly might want think look little more physical , I was shocked how much they throwing. There could be more bad news other than scary pass rush I think there chance for rain also.
 
11. @Oregon State +17.5(-116) v Oregon (BOL): Well, we're waiting for Oregon to be awesome. Coming into this year, Lanning has been awesome ATS (19-8) which probably set expectations pretty high. They underwhelmed against Idaho, but everyone assumed they would steamroll Boise last week because Boise looked helpless the week prior in Statesboro against Georgia Southern, but it didn't happen. They only racked up 352 total yards and Boise pressured Dillon Gabriel all day, sacking him 4 times. Gabriel hasn't had a ton of time to throw and as a result he's averaging less than 10 yards per completion on the year. The Beavers have a ton of new faces as a lot of their guys transferred after Jonathan Smith left for Michigan State, but there's some continuity with Trent Bray taking over after serving as Smith's DC. The Beavs are looking to ground and pound, and they've been successful thus far, especially last week where they dominated San Diego State on the road, holding the Aztecs to 179 yards. They like to run it with Anthony Hankerson and Jam Griffin, but Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy has been efficient, completing almost 70% at over 8 yards a clip. Oregon will have to play much better than they have thus far to be able to cover this, especially if the Beavers have any success running the ball. As I mentioned, everyone is expecting Oregon to explode. If they do, good luck to the Beavers, but they haven't shown much that suggests they will.

This was a frustrating one. Oregon can't get out of their own way for two weeks, then they turn into everything everyone ever dreamed for them this week. 546 yards on the road against a defense that's miles better than the first two they faced. I'm not smart enough to see that coming. Nice work by me on the two Pacific Northwest rivalry games!!!
 
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Br@ssknux said:
10. Washington -5.5 v Washington State (BetRivers): The Apple Cup happens in September now as a result of all the realignment, so no more snowstorms on the Pallouse that bury the Huskies as Bledsoe leads the Cougs on to victory. (I'm old enough to remember watching that one). This game is at the Lumen Field(Seahawks). Washington has dominated this game lately, but Wazzou almost spoiled the party for the Huskies last year and DeBoer had to go for it on 4th down in his own territory to eventually save the game. This year both teams are completely turned over, especially Washington with the arrival of Jedd Fisch and the exit of just about everyone from last year's team. Washington State has played Texas Tech, which represents the only non-creampuff on either schedule and QB John Mateer ran all over the Red Raiders to the tune of almost 200 yards. Washington comes in having had no issues with Eastern Michigan and Weber State. Former Mississippi State QB Will Rogers has taken over at QB for the Huskies and he's got about 11 years of experience it seems. Fisch also brought along RB Jonah Coleman from Arizona, and he's been an absolute beast, averaging 8.6 yards per carry and 6.7 yards after contact. The whole team has graded out extremely high, as they've looked a lot like Arizona did last year, and that's bad news for Dickert and the Cougs because Arizona came to Pullman last year and won 44-6 with a 506-245 yard edge. Washington State looks a little one dimensional to me as Mateer didn't really throw it effectively on Texas Tech, but he didn't need to because they ran all over them. I don't see that happening in this one, and I don't think that defense is going to be able to handle Coleman since they rank near the bottom of FBS is tackling so far this year. Rogers has solid experience, I think Fisch and company take care of business in Seattle.
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As long as huskies can bottle that qb run up i think Coleman just plows thru wazzu most the day. Rogers should keep chains moving, loooks like a game huskies control a large portion of.
 
12. Hawaii +4 @Sam Houston State (BOL): SHSU is definitely improved and they looked great in their opener against a Rice team that a lot of people were high on in the American, but I think this is a good matchup for the Rainbows. First of all, they are making a long trip to the mainland after a week off to prepare, and this was after an extremely promising game against UCLA in which they almost pulled off the double digit upset. The most surprising thing about that game for me however was how Hawaii totally lived in UCLA's backfield. They had 7 tackles for loss in the game and if you watched the game you could see that they were very competitive at the line of scrimmage. On the other hand, SHSU is 124th in tackles for loss allowed, and they aren't the kind of team that can recover from behind the sticks. Timmy Chang's offense had all kinds of chances to score against UCLA but couldn't get the passing game going. I think with a week off, Schager and company will be ready to roll and improve. I thought Hawaii might be favored in this one, so I'll take the 4.

SHSU had absolutely zero problem with a defense that completely flummoxed UCLA. I see that this data point means nothing now, but I didn't when I wrote this. SHSU D also never let Schager get going. Bad call here. Hawaii was never in it.
 
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13. UCF +2 @TCU(BOL) Since they've come into the Big 12, I've thought that within a few years, UCF would be as likely as any team remaining after the OU/UT exodus to be the perennial favorite. This year, it appears that the main reason they are going to be a force to be reckoned with is their ability to win in the trenches. Their running game will probably be the most effective in the country, which shouldn't be a big surprise if you've paid attention to Gus Malzahn's offenses over the years. After John Rhys Plumlee ran out of eligibility(I think?) they were able to bring in KJ Jefferson to run Malzahn's offense, and he seems to be a great fit. So far, they've been devastating against the overmatched teams they've played against, running for 838 yards in 2 games. RJ Harvey has looked great, averaging 8.9 yards per carry, and Toledo transfer Peny Boone, the best RB in the MAC last year isn't far behind at 7.6 per. Jefferson hasn't needed to throw it much, but he's capable, as he's thrown for almost 8,000 yards during his time at Arkansas. On the defensive side, they haven't given up anything sue to the prowess of their defensive line. I don't know that UCF will get much of a challenge in the run game this week either, as TCU is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry in their games against Long Island and Stanford. QB Josh Hoover has been good this year, but he really struggled with mistakes last year when he was pressured, and UCF figures to be in his face quite a bit. I also just don't like the vibe that's been around TCU since the Colorado game last year. I'm higher than most on UCF, but i think the better team is favored here.

TCU offense looked much better than I expected, especially that receiver Bech who UCF could not cover to save their lives. But the UCF run game came through. Good job by those guys to stick with it because this one wasn't looking great. TCU still has the look of a program that is in a rut. Almost as if they used a 10 year serving of karma a couple years ago and there's not any left for awhile.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
It was a bad week last week as the writeups went 5-9 with a few tough breaks(Cincy, Nevada, Iowa). No need to dwell on it, but the worst part was not writing up a few games that qualified as usual auto plays for me, namely Cal as a dog and NIU as a dog. I also chickened out on Houston, as I suspected they couldn't have been as bad as they showed the previous week. Live and learn. Unfortunately I tend to do a lot of "living", i.e. losing and not learning. Season record moves to 12-13. I haven't been keeping track of the units, but it's down 1 and change since I've played a couple money lines.

Friday:

1. UNLV +7.5 @Kansas (BOL): I already accidentally deleted my full writeup on this one(and it was long) and I don't have the work ethic to try and recreate it again, so this is going to be a bit abridged. We have a rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl from last year in this one, a game in which KU dropped the Rebels 49-36 in a shootout. The Rebels were torched by Jason Bean in that one to the tune of 440 yards passing on only 19 completions. However, Andy Kotelnicki was calling plays for the Jayhawks in that one, but he has moved on to bigger and better things as Penn State's OC this year. To replace him they hired Jeff Grimes, who Dave Aranda launched at Baylor last year. Their game with Illinois last week illustrated the difference in this offense now that AK is gone and Grimes is here. Last year Kansas put up 539 yards against the Illini with 17 plays going for more than 20 yards. Last week in Champaign, they had 327 yards and 2 plays over 20 yards. The same QB, running backs and wide receivers who carved up the Illini were back this year. The only difference was a slightly rebuilt OL and the Grimes for Kotelnicki trade. in 305 attempts as the primary starter in 2022 and the first 3 games of 2023, Jalon Daniels completed 68.5% of his passes for 8.91 yards per attempt and threw only 5 picks. In 47 passes under Grimes, he's completed 57% at 6.05 yards per attempt and has already throws 4 interceptions. The offense UNLV will be going against this time is shell of its former self. Kansas covered that game last year, but it represents the only time under Barry Odom tat the Rebels have failed to cover away from home (7-0 in the regular season) and also the only time they failed to cover as an underdog (6-0 in the reg season). They are 12-4 ATS overall since Odom got here, so they represent sort of an auto pay in my opinion. On the field they'll match up much better since they added captain playmaker Jalen Catalon to their secondary, and new QB Sluka has no fear of going down field to AA candidate Ricky White. It took them awhile, but Illinois had all kinds of success downfield as soon as Luke Altmyer decided to air it out, so Kansas figures to be susceptible to giving up big plays to White. KU is at home in this one, but field renovations in Lawrence have forced them to play their home games in KC this year, and this one's in the MLS stadium in the outskirts of KC. I'll take the super capable dog with revenge on their mind against an offense that is a shell of it's former self.
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Nice call on Kansas offense. They look awful. Sluka is simply a great runner. But boy he can't throw a lick. 86 yards passing. White gotta be pissed as his draft stock gonna take a hit. But nice call.
 
lvmike32 said:
Nice call on Kansas offense. They look awful. Sluka is simply a great runner. But boy he can't throw a lick. 86 yards passing. White gotta be pissed as his draft stock gonna take a hit. But nice call.
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Sluka missed some open guys for sure. I think he's capable, but he hasn't shown it so far. They HAVE to find a way to make better use of White.
 
2daBank said:
Surprised lsu is still such a passing team, I get it they get redic wrs there I just thought after Daniels left Kelly might want think look little more physical , I was shocked how much they throwing. There could be more bad news other than scary pass rush I think there chance for rain also.
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They would love to be a running team, even changed up their blocking scheme to make that possible, but the injury to Emery + the line failing to get in the new blocking scheme has made them very one-dimensional (which is a bad way to be heading into Williams-Brice against that DL, esp if the rain has an impact). They don't have the backs to make guys miss or the performance up front to move the LOS, at least at this point. Heard someone way smarter than me the other day (maybe Brad Powers?) say LSU's OL might be the most disappointing unit in the country.
 
14. Air Force +16.5 @Baylor: (BOL): Air Force to put it bluntly has been an abomination on offense. Last week they could muster only 7 points(and that was thanks to a short field)against known defensive menace San Jose State. Prior to that, they gained less than 250 yards on a Merrimack team that turned around and gave up 56 in the first half to UConn. Can that even be possible? The good news this week is that in order to cover this, they might not have to score at all because Baylor's offense so far has been pretty bad in it's own right. They hit on a couple big passes in garbage time against Tarleton State, which made their numbers look ok, but they didn't run it effectively(barely 4 yards a carry), and anyone who watched them play last week at Utah knows they have very little hope of being a good offense at any point this year. The secret was starting to get out on Finn last year when his turnovers ramped up and people realized they needed to just contain him and make him throw. Baylor was extremely lucky to cover last week at Utah, when the Utes basically just circled the wagons and closed down shop after Cam Rising hurt his hand. Had he not gotten hurt, there's no telling where that final score would have been considering the difference in play in the first half (23-3, 197-43 yardage edge), and we wouldn't be looking at 16 points here. Air Force hasn't given up much on defense, as usual, and they certainly are disciplined enough to play contain on Finn. Also, we won't see any give up with a service academy, and I have to think they'll improve on offense. I mean, Troy Calhoun didn't forget how to coach overnight. Getting 16.5 with a service academy against what looks like a subpar opponent is an good bet in my opinion, regardless of how bad they've looked so far.

Man is Air Force bad. Baylor was like "Hey guys, we're going to keep you in this game. We aren't good. We're gonna fuck around, all you have to do is make a couple tackles and maybe make a correct option read and we'll play this game down to the wire. Oh, you're not going to do that? Well, ok, I guess we'll score a couple TDs then and cover this game." Air Force obliged without a murmur.
 
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15. New Mexico +28(-117) @Auburn (Bet Rivers) : I had to buy this up a half point from -107, but I figured I'd grab the even number. I realize that New Mexico is the worst defense in FBS. And when I say that, I'm not using hyperbole. They are the worst, by far. They're giving up 8.78 yards per play, which is a yard per play more than all but one other group of sad sacks(Georgia Southern). The team that gives up closest to 2 yards per play less than them is ranked 124th. You get the point. But it seems like none of that matters when Hugh Freeze is laying points in the non-conference, or just laying a ton of points overall. Since 2021 he's lost outright as a favorite 7 times, including as 33, 26, 24, 14 and last week as a 13 point favorite. in his last 11 as a favorite of 13 or more(since that loss as a 33 point favorite to La-Mo in 2021), he's 2-9 ATS. Auburn is due for a turnaround, since they lost in embarrassing fashion to Cal at home last week. Payton Thorne threw a slew of interceptions so Freeze was under pressure to DO SOMETHING, so he's installed redshirt freshman Hank Brown to make his first start. Will it work? Well, he couldn't possibly have a bigger defensive cupcake to give it a try, so we'll see. However, New Mexico is no joke on offense. Devon Dampier is a running QB, but I think you can safely say he's a playmaker now because his passing numbers are pretty good as well. PFF has him in the top 50 in passing grades, ahead of other solid running QBs like Will Howard, Haynes King and Jalen Milroe. He's also run for 164 yards on 18 carries, so he's always a threat. I just don't think Auburn is good enough yet to just roll their helmets out there against anyone, especially one that puts points on the board. Also, Bronco Mendenhall is no dummy. The Lobos are going to get better on that side of the ball. Given Freeze's penchant to falter in situations like this and also that UNM is 2-0 ATS despite having such a hellaciously bad defense, I like their chances to cover this big number. I'd probably take it at anything above 24 actually.

New Mexico had 450 yards and scored 19. This should have been about a 1-14 point game, but it ended up being a sweat for me and a loss for people who bet it later in the day Saturday.
 
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By the way, it's a FCS game, but I took 30.5 with Northern Iowa against Nebraska. Let down/sandwich spot as they have Illinois on a short week to start conference play next week, and the Huskers haven't been lighting up the scoreboard. UNI not as good as they usually are it appears, but they're always a tough out.
 
16. @MIssissippi State -10 v Toledo(Bet Rivers) : Usually would not like to lay this much in this situation, but I think there is some value here in fading Toledo. Everyone looks at Toledo and assumes they are the same team that has been at the top of the MAC for the past decade, but they appear to be much worse this year. They've beaten Duquesne and UMass so far, but UMass outgained them by 130 yards and held their offense to 258 yards! If you take away a couple long passes they completed and an 18 yard scramble, (3 plays) they gained a total of 127 yards on 42 plays(3.02 yards per play). QB Tucker Gleason went 8-23 and they couldn't run the ball at all. Now they go down to Starkville to play a Mississippi State team that needs a win and the Rockets will have their attention based on all their previous success. Blake Shapen has actually been very good so far for the Bulldogs and actually ranks as the second highest rated QB among all QBs per PFF. They had a rough game against Arizona State last week, but that was due to getting run over by Cam Skattebo. They held ASU to under 4 yards per attempt throwing the ball, and it appears Toledo's ticket to offensive success is in the pass game because they can't run it. I think this is a manageable amount for the Bulldogs to cover here in a game they'll probably have an A effort for.

The Great Tucker Gleason went 8-23 against UMass and then look like Mahomes on the road against an SEC team(in name only). 454 yards for Toledo when they didn't sniff that against Duquesne and UMass. It's like magic! Master tactician Jason Candle cast a spell! The game was over in the first 5 minutes(again). What a pathetic effort by Mississippi State. I can just see some 23 year old frat bro who hadn't watched a game all year look at that spread and say "Oh man bro, Toledo's fuckin good! They're gettin 10 from Mississippi State? I saw Bama roll those guys once. Toledo all the way!" Well, all I can do is doff my cap to my hypothetical superior.
 
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Outstanding writeups as usual, Brass. Always read this to see where we agree and where we opposite, and you are usually right when we do. Thanks for this
 
Br@ssknux said:
It was a bad week last week as the writeups went 5-9 with a few tough breaks(Cincy, Nevada, Iowa). No need to dwell on it, but the worst part was not writing up a few games that qualified as usual auto plays for me, namely Cal as a dog and NIU as a dog. I also chickened out on Houston, as I suspected they couldn't have been as bad as they showed the previous week. Live and learn. Unfortunately I tend to do a lot of "living", i.e. losing and not learning. Season record moves to 12-13. I haven't been keeping track of the units, but it's down 1 and change since I've played a couple money lines.

Friday:

1. UNLV +7.5 @Kansas (BOL): I already accidentally deleted my full writeup on this one(and it was long) and I don't have the work ethic to try and recreate it again, so this is going to be a bit abridged. We have a rematch of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl from last year in this one, a game in which KU dropped the Rebels 49-36 in a shootout. The Rebels were torched by Jason Bean in that one to the tune of 440 yards passing on only 19 completions. However, Andy Kotelnicki was calling plays for the Jayhawks in that one, but he has moved on to bigger and better things as Penn State's OC this year. To replace him they hired Jeff Grimes, who Dave Aranda launched at Baylor last year. Their game with Illinois last week illustrated the difference in this offense now that AK is gone and Grimes is here. Last year Kansas put up 539 yards against the Illini with 17 plays going for more than 20 yards. Last week in Champaign, they had 327 yards and 2 plays over 20 yards. The same QB, running backs and wide receivers who carved up the Illini were back this year. The only difference was a slightly rebuilt OL and the Grimes for Kotelnicki trade. in 305 attempts as the primary starter in 2022 and the first 3 games of 2023, Jalon Daniels completed 68.5% of his passes for 8.91 yards per attempt and threw only 5 picks. In 47 passes under Grimes, he's completed 57% at 6.05 yards per attempt and has already throws 4 interceptions. The offense UNLV will be going against this time is shell of its former self. Kansas covered that game last year, but it represents the only time under Barry Odom tat the Rebels have failed to cover away from home (7-0 in the regular season) and also the only time they failed to cover as an underdog (6-0 in the reg season). They are 12-4 ATS overall since Odom got here, so they represent sort of an auto pay in my opinion. On the field they'll match up much better since they added captain playmaker Jalen Catalon to their secondary, and new QB Sluka has no fear of going down field to AA candidate Ricky White. It took them awhile, but Illinois had all kinds of success downfield as soon as Luke Altmyer decided to air it out, so Kansas figures to be susceptible to giving up big plays to White. KU is at home in this one, but field renovations in Lawrence have forced them to play their home games in KC this year, and this one's in the MLS stadium in the outskirts of KC. I'll take the super capable dog with revenge on their mind against an offense that is a shell of it's former self.
Click to expand...
Great call
 
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