Week 3 RAS/service release in-game...

DaRaiders said:
In honor of my boy KK
[video=youtube;o3ZV3xZxPp8]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3ZV3xZxPp8[/video]
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Lmao... Take note of this fellas, this is probably the first and only time you will ever see a Caucasian male in his 60's post a rap video titled "I'm a hustla". :rofl:
 
big_units said:
thanks hugh i assumed it was tt...hey karl have you heard of this mike o'connor guy the dr.bob is endorsing for nfl this year? bob has been a loser at nfl for years now and he finally gave it up...but this guy is supposedly 58% long term in the nfl--do you know anyone that gets his picks?
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I found his picks from MNF... 2-0 with Philly and Diego
 
tru said:
2012 37-33 +.15 units.

this year sofar and lastyear haven't been up to normal I see. These results continue like this will these lines keep movin like they do? Starting to setup value after tha moves
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Do you have record for previous years? They are more successful at totals, right?
 
chips t said:
Do you have record for previous years? They are more successful at totals, right?
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It's all on his website. Every year...sides, totals, everything is all broken down and is very easy to find on the RAS (Right Angle Sports) website.

To answer your question though...totals 6-6 so far this year and 21-15 in 2012. Overall, he cleaned house in 2009-2011 with a combined 123-70 record, +50.85 units. But, since 2011...52-47, +0.25 units.
 
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Lareux said:
ManUK, Walters uses his own guys (beards) to do the setting-up for him. He will basically dummy the line up or down, and then bet what he really wanted to bet all along when the books adjust the lines based on his dummy betting.
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Was there any point in posting that ?

You know,here in England gambling is legal,weve had inplay betting for 20 years.The 89 year old woman next door knows about shadyness.
You are behind the times there,please dont talk down to me,I could fucking lose you when it comes to anything in the betting industry.
 
wizardofodd said:
got a question. I dont follow RAS or these other ppl much who charge for plays...

But on that topic, I know they track their plays and do one of the best jobs showing record.

With that said, does RAS or anyone have a record of their plays where "moving" the line even mattered?

I know in NFL, the spread comes into affect about 18% of the time and college is a different animal, but still would be interesting to know. Sides and totals both.

GL everyone
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The best I can do on this is copy and paste a post from a guy at another site I visit on a thread he started on this very topic the other day...

"RAS has established itself as a bona fide winner with an edge. I won't speak for his clients, because I am not one of them, nor never have been. I can only go by the reality of what clients that post here have to say, and that is most of the time, they are able to get the plays in before the lines change. I wrote another post on despite of that fact, it simply isn't worth the investment for any player that plays 250.00/300.00 or less, which requires a bankroll of about 15,000.00 @ 2% which is where that person should responsibly be. The issue for his picks posted in the forums, and the reason why he could care less is this. His website shows the line upon release vs the closing line, which has been 3.41 points advantaged upon release on sides and 2.04 on totals thus far in 2013. Prior years show between 2-3, so let's start there. Since 1980 there have been 20,728 lined NCAA Football games, of which 1,461 ended with an ATS margin of 3 or less. That equates to 7.04% of all games. If you assume that his games will also end with that same percentage, not over one given year, but over a long period, then if his lined plays average 57.5% over a 10 year period, you betting them after the fact deducts 7.04% from the historic results of 57.05% and you win 50.01% of all followed plays, or quite simply, YOU ARE NOW BETTING A COIN FLIP, but most people here, don't realize that, they will bet anyway. If the line differential is only 2 points, then out of the same 20,728 games, there have been 985 finish with an ATS margin of 2 or less points, or 4.75%. That means 57.5% - 4.75% = 52.75% expected winners tailing the posts in the forum, or BREAKEVEN LONGTERM. The bottom line here is many come in and say fade, because you have line value, that is wrong. Many others say play them anyway, they will win. While any given year can make the fader a winner, or the follower a winner, long term, neither will win! I think a 21,000 wager sample size is suffice to say, you have been warned. YOU HAVE A 0% STATISTICAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING IF YOU FOLLOW OR FADE OVER THE LONGHAUL! Don't tell me about how much you made fading last year, or following the last 2 years, either are possible short term. The fact is long term, you have no chance to win on either side."
 
ManchesterUk said:
Was there any point in posting that ?

You know,here in England gambling is legal,weve had inplay betting for 20 years.The 89 year old woman next door knows about shadyness.
You are behind the times there,please dont talk down to me,I could fucking lose you when it comes to anything in the betting industry.
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I'm sorry ManUK, I wasn't trying to talk down to you. Based on your post that I quoted, I wasn't sure if you got it. Here's what you wrote...

quote_icon.png
Originally Posted by ManchesterUk

Thats interesting,I dont follow any of this anywhere near close enough, but we know that BW uses set-ups,if ras is setting his plays up(again Ive no clue but if thats what youre inferring) thats interesting to me.If thats way off the mark just ignore it ob.
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Based on that, I thought that you possibly thought that RAS was doing the dummying for BW (that's what you said isn't it?). Maybe you simply meant if RAS was dummying up their own plays....when you said "his" I thought you were referring to BW, since RAS is a group not one individual. Again, sorry for the confusion on my part.
 
KowboyKarl said:
The best I can do on this is copy and paste a post from a guy at another site I visit on a thread he started on this very topic the other day...

"RAS has established itself as a bona fide winner with an edge. I won't speak for his clients, because I am not one of them, nor never have been. I can only go by the reality of what clients that post here have to say, and that is most of the time, they are able to get the plays in before the lines change. I wrote another post on despite of that fact, it simply isn't worth the investment for any player that plays 250.00/300.00 or less, which requires a bankroll of about 15,000.00 @ 2% which is where that person should responsibly be. The issue for his picks posted in the forums, and the reason why he could care less is this. His website shows the line upon release vs the closing line, which has been 3.41 points advantaged upon release on sides and 2.04 on totals thus far in 2013. Prior years show between 2-3, so let's start there. Since 1980 there have been 20,728 lined NCAA Football games, of which 1,461 ended with an ATS margin of 3 or less. That equates to 7.04% of all games. If you assume that his games will also end with that same percentage, not over one given year, but over a long period, then if his lined plays average 57.5% over a 10 year period, you betting them after the fact deducts 7.04% from the historic results of 57.05% and you win 50.01% of all followed plays, or quite simply, YOU ARE NOW BETTING A COIN FLIP, but most people here, don't realize that, they will bet anyway. If the line differential is only 2 points, then out of the same 20,728 games, there have been 985 finish with an ATS margin of 2 or less points, or 4.75%. That means 57.5% - 4.75% = 52.75% expected winners tailing the posts in the forum, or BREAKEVEN LONGTERM. The bottom line here is many come in and say fade, because you have line value, that is wrong. Many others say play them anyway, they will win. While any given year can make the fader a winner, or the follower a winner, long term, neither will win! I think a 21,000 wager sample size is suffice to say, you have been warned. YOU HAVE A 0% STATISTICAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING IF YOU FOLLOW OR FADE OVER THE LONGHAUL! Don't tell me about how much you made fading last year, or following the last 2 years, either are possible short term. The fact is long term, you have no chance to win on either side."
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By the way, Edward made an appearance in this thread as well...to argue against this post.
 
Another thing I found if anyone is curious (I was curious about this myself), Edward posted this in another thread on Wednesday...

"For the record, we've never had anything close to even 500 subscribers at one time."

I honestly thought the number would be much higher, unless he's bluffing.
 
Thanks Karl!! That debate can go on for hours....just gotta agree to disagree at some point. Again, thanks, sheds some light on it
 
KowboyKarl said:
Another thing I found if anyone is curious (I was curious about this myself), Edward posted this in another thread on Wednesday...

"For the record, we've never had anything close to even 500 subscribers at one time."

I honestly thought the number would be much higher, unless he's bluffing.
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I mean that's a lot though. Think about it they cbb package is 2400, 2400x500 is 1.2 milly. That's jus for his info no matter if its rite or wrong. He makes a good living and they move lines, but he's gotta be rite not even close to 500 people who pay for his picks. An that's jus cbb, cfb package is what 800? So that's even more. If hes able to have 100 people buy both cfb an cbb then that's some shit like 320k, jus for ras picks win or lose.
 
tru said:
I mean that's a lot though. Think about it they cbb package is 2400, 2400x500 is 1.2 milly. That's jus for his info no matter if its rite or wrong. He makes a good living and they move lines, but he's gotta be rite not even close to 500 people who pay for his picks. An that's jus cbb, cfb package is what 800? So that's even more. If hes able to have 100 people buy both cfb an cbb then that's some shit like 320k, jus for ras picks win or lose.
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That is "tru", no doubt that's a lotta loot...but for his "legendary" status in the sports betting world, that number (less than 500) seems very small to me.
 
That post is just stupid about RAS...the whole 'you got 2 less points and it falls within 2 points x % of the time' is beyond irrelevant. Is it a real shocker to anyone that if you move a line from 4 to 2 in the NFL it is going to change drastically, as well as on 8 to 6? How about in college from 23.5 to 21.5? Oh, not even remotely close to as big?
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
dr bob...3 best bets + 6 strong opinions this week. here are the games involved...

Louisville/Kentucky
EMU/Rutgers
BG/Indiana
TCU/TT
SoMiss/Arkansas
Ball St/N Texas
UTSA/Zona
Fresno/Colorado
OSU/Utah


someone who gets these can post. or i'll copy/paste whenever i find them. but much can be figured out from here...
Click to expand...
Dr. Bob
3* Utah

2* Arkansas
2* Colorado

Opinions
Texas Tech
Under - Arizona
North Texas
Rutgers
Bowling Green
Kentucky

 
DwightS said:
That post is just stupid about RAS...the whole 'you got 2 less points and it falls within 2 points x % of the time' is beyond irrelevant. Is it a real shocker to anyone that if you move a line from 4 to 2 in the NFL it is going to change drastically, as well as on 8 to 6? How about in college from 23.5 to 21.5? Oh, not even remotely close to as big?
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It certainly is a broad statement, but, at the same time, there is certainly at least some truth to it. Just how much though? The real question is this: Is it still profitable to play RAS plays vs the closing number?

I'm gonna make some time to go through his year by year records and find out. Will post the results.
 
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Ok, on the left will be RAS cfb stats using his RELEASE NUMBER...then to the right of that will be RAS stats using CLOSING NUMBER:

2013: 15-14, +0.10 --- 14-15, -2.00
2012: 37-33, +0.15 --- 35-34-1, -2.95
2011: 48-27, +18.20 --- 47-28, +16.10
2010: 35-24-1, +10.55 --- 33-27, +3.15
2009: 40-19, +22.10 --- 38-21, +15.80


Stats go all the way back to 1997. I will do the rest within the next couple days and post those as well.
 
KowboyKarl said:
The best I can do on this is copy and paste a post from a guy at another site I visit on a thread he started on this very topic the other day...

"RAS has established itself as a bona fide winner with an edge. I won't speak for his clients, because I am not one of them, nor never have been. I can only go by the reality of what clients that post here have to say, and that is most of the time, they are able to get the plays in before the lines change. I wrote another post on despite of that fact, it simply isn't worth the investment for any player that plays 250.00/300.00 or less, which requires a bankroll of about 15,000.00 @ 2% which is where that person should responsibly be. The issue for his picks posted in the forums, and the reason why he could care less is this. His website shows the line upon release vs the closing line, which has been 3.41 points advantaged upon release on sides and 2.04 on totals thus far in 2013. Prior years show between 2-3, so let's start there. Since 1980 there have been 20,728 lined NCAA Football games, of which 1,461 ended with an ATS margin of 3 or less. That equates to 7.04% of all games. If you assume that his games will also end with that same percentage, not over one given year, but over a long period, then if his lined plays average 57.5% over a 10 year period, you betting them after the fact deducts 7.04% from the historic results of 57.05% and you win 50.01% of all followed plays, or quite simply, YOU ARE NOW BETTING A COIN FLIP, but most people here, don't realize that, they will bet anyway. If the line differential is only 2 points, then out of the same 20,728 games, there have been 985 finish with an ATS margin of 2 or less points, or 4.75%. That means 57.5% - 4.75% = 52.75% expected winners tailing the posts in the forum, or BREAKEVEN LONGTERM. The bottom line here is many come in and say fade, because you have line value, that is wrong. Many others say play them anyway, they will win. While any given year can make the fader a winner, or the follower a winner, long term, neither will win! I think a 21,000 wager sample size is suffice to say, you have been warned. YOU HAVE A 0% STATISTICAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING IF YOU FOLLOW OR FADE OVER THE LONGHAUL! Don't tell me about how much you made fading last year, or following the last 2 years, either are possible short term. The fact is long term, you have no chance to win on either side."
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A lot of bad math in there. His premise is in the right place in that you have to realize ras will win a few you won't if you aren't fast to homeplate with the pitch but his math is woeful.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
RAS

Marshall -6.5 (currently up to -8)
Middle Tenn St -4.5 (currently up to -7.5)
South Florida -10.5 (currently up to -12.5)

RAS

123 b green ov 61 (currently at 60.5 @ -130)
163 ball st under 63- (currently down to 58.5)
177 kansas over 57- (currently up to 58 @ -120)
193 wisc over 52 (still at 52, but @ -125)
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tough weekend. with the troy win, looks like 3-5...but there might've been more late releases i didn't see.

bounce back next week. :shake:


moving the #s though only came into play with the ball st under. had it not climbed from 61 to 63, it woulda obviously changed the win to a push.
 
oakas said:
Dr. Bob
3* Utah

2* Arkansas
2* Colorado

Opinions
Texas Tech
Under - Arizona
North Texas
Rutgers
Bowling Green
Kentucky
Click to expand...


opinions are opinions, and colorado postponed...but not sure if that's 0-2, 1-1, or 0-1-1 with the star plays.
i was seeing arkansas -22, but not sure what line this was based upon. prolly 20.5 ;)
 
RAS's website says so far they are 18-19 for -2.4 units. 37 plays in 2 weeks seems much more then they usually play if I remember right.
 
Im not a sub to RAS but my guess for week 4 just from watching the lines this morning. Im sure someone can confirm which ones are really him and if Ive left any out.

329 Marshall +11
336 Maryland -4
360 Memphis +7
376 Syracuse -13
385 Texas San Antonio +3
 
nflguy said:
Im not a sub to RAS but my guess for week 4 just from watching the lines this morning. Im sure someone can confirm which ones are really him and if Ive left any out.

329 Marshall +11
336 Maryland -4
360 Memphis +7
376 Syracuse -13
385 Texas San Antonio +3
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So it looks like you got 3 of em there.
 
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