Week 3 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 2 ML Dog Winners
Colorado 165
San Diego St 237
Coastal Carolina 207
BYU 144
WKU 278
UNC 163
California 384

Thru the first 2 weeks there have only been a handful of Dog Barking........
We have had a lot of members hit some of these Dogs in the Underdog Contest

On to Week 3.....................

Let's find us some winners this week!
 
Looks to me to be possibly the worst week that I remember. A run through of ideas:

UNC...just because they be rollin, and we all know WF is going to do that slow-delayed zone read and UNC going to be TFLing that shit. Can't imagine much of a HF advantage, Heels fans going to be superengerized and traveling to this one.

Houston...I agree is interesting as Wazzou hasn't played anyone who might test them any. Holgerson vs Leach, nice.

Kansas State could maybe be interesting...QB for Miss St got injured and they played with guy I presume is 3rd string? Must be preserve Keeton Thompson for RS? I thought Thompson was transfering? K St simply has been rolling people, albeit Nicholls and BGSU and Miss St did roll them in recent memory. Southern Miss had plenty of chances, got in scoring position and came away empty a couple times last week in Starksville then gave the cover away at the end. One of the worst tackling performances out of SM D that I can remember. Several times they had a defender, sometimes multiple defenders in the backfield and Miss St got away. Would rather K St had played somebody with a pulse. No doubt the crew is believing in the new staff and feeling good. Will Miss St bring them down to earth?

WVU? Young NCSt O taking to the road fav to Morgantown. Have not seen anything to like about WVU 2019 football so not sure how you begin to make the case.

Miami, Oh did play a tough 1st H week 1 at Iowa then Iowa asserted themselves. Will Cincy be deflated after waxing off what had to be a pretty big game? Miami has not won this game since 2005! Last year was 21-0 shutout, but previous 4 were just 1 score games. Might Miami be upgraded with a fresh QB? How dinged up is Ridder after OSU beating?

Pitt? Hard to see it unless 1st Half PSU shows up from last week. Problem is Pitt isn't a very good team right now at QB or OL. Pickett is sure to give PSU some gifts.

Eastern Michigan, I might go back on them again this week.

AF? Good spot for them, but not sure they can contain Buffs pass game unless they're still partying in Boulder.

East Carolina plays Navy in first league game for both. Mike Houston has option background and ran triple option at Citadel prior to his JMU position. Hmmmm

BYU - Fr QB for USC has done really well...now he takes to the road in what will be a HUGE game for BYU to host a historic blueblood like SC after having just beaten a historic blueblood in Tennessee. Can BYU come back down from that one in time?

Colorado State did it last year to Arkansas. Doesn't appear that Hogs are any better this year. CSU got to take out some frustration last week and looked pretty competent on O at times vs CU in week 1 as well. Ark did lead 27-9 before folding last year.

Southern Miss is a short dog at Troy. I haven't seen or read anything from the 2019 version of Troy yet so I don't know. One thing I do know is that if Southern Miss tries to tackle the way they did last game they aren't going to upset any teams. Troy is certainly more "their size" than Miss State of course.

Kentucky - not sure how I feel about Smith compared to Wilson at QB in this one for Cats. He did look pretty good last week vs EM though. UF definitely has some issues that make them appear beatable.

Georgia State played a probably predictable close game vs Furman last week so not worried about that (Furman led 20-3). I am worried that I remember taking them last year and they got rolled by WM. But if Georgia St is better than the Vols they might be improved enough year-over-year to compete this time? Maybe?

Arizona. Not sure we know enough about Texas Tech under Wells do we to make them road chalk? Zona D is worrisome.
 
s--k said:
Looks to me to be possibly the worst week that I remember.
Click to expand...
I was thinking the same thing..........
I was trying to figure out where GameDay would go... Iowa/ Iowa St maybe (probably already announced but I haven't seen it.
Then I was going to plan my day... based on the times of games...
might be a good week to get some things around the house done and win some points... have the games on in the background
Hey maybe Chattanooga beats Da Vols!
 
Houston - Pirate mails some of these OOC game in sometimes

Temple - right, now Maryland is like really good or something. Whatever

Free Shoes - 4 and 5 Star athletes against kids we stole from powers like Marshall, Buffalo and Yale. Our kids also have to go to school.

Bowling Green State - LaTech has looked like doo doo.

Kentucky - barely beating Miami means you're about as good as UNC, maybe.

I'm intrigued by the 35-1 on the Citadel (at GT). Would like better value than 13-1 on South Carolina State (at USF), but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix at the end).
 
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booksbestfriend said:
I’ll PM you my address. You can just send me the money you were going to wager on this.
[/
Actually, I'm not sure I'm betting on any (although I' will play SC State even at crappy 13-1 return, and probably the Citadel at 35-1). I'm just looking to identify potential spots. Of the ones I posted, I will likely play Temple and Kentucky, but who knows.
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booksbestfriend said:
Just a joke. Like my Noles. I'd love nothing more than to see them do well, but I gave the points. Will be on UVA.
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My fellow UVA types - inveterate pessimists, all - agree with you. I still can't watch the highlights from the 1995 game, figuring that if I watch it long enough, Dunn will eventually score to beat us. That, I think, was the only game I ever went to by myself. It might also be the only game I didn't watch from the student section. Ah memories. FSU fans that night, by the way, could not have been nicer and more congratulatory. Classy.
 
Maineroad said:
My fellow UVA types - inveterate pessimists, all - agree with you. I still can't watch the highlights from the 1995 game, figuring that if I watch it long enough, Dunn will eventually score to beat us. That, I think, was the only game I ever went to by myself. It might also be the only game I didn't watch from the student section. Ah memories. FSU fans that night, by the way, could not have been nicer and more congratulatory. Classy.
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Warrick crossed the goal line. I don’t know what the Refs watching
I still LOVED that play call too
 
Kansas State @ Miss. State: comparisons in the query below include turnover margin, total defense, and total offense and the previous match-up was a win for the Bulldogs of course. KState has a bit of revenge factor going into this game. The home fav is 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 0-5 O/U in these matchups. What I found very interesting from the results of this query is the 2 SU losses came as favs of less than double digits. The 3 DD favs all won. Just so happens MSU is a single-digit fav. Just sharing....

kstate-msu.jpg
 
Stanford @ UCF: I didn't get far in this query but I got far enough. I just put in comparisons for a home team with average total defense advantage of greater than 140ypg and average total offense advantage of greater than 200ypg. Team is at home and week less than week 4. Take a look at all lines of -15 or less. Even though there are a total of 10 SU losses in this entire query, 6 of those losses came from the 9 games with lines of -15 or less. Look where UCF is sitting....right smack in the middle. The line looks like it's been steaming too. Talk to me Goose. How do y'all like Stanford's chances?

PS - who knows anything about the Southern Illinois game? It's a hit in the query too.

stanford-ucf.jpg
 
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Louisiana Tech @ Bowling Green: @s--k whatdya got on BG? Didn't you play them last week? I'm getting some good results in my queries for BG. They have slight advantage in turnover margin, almost as good QB efficiency, much better defense, and offense not too much worse than LTech. BG looks like a good home dog to me. I'm getting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS record for the home team here.

BG-LTech.jpg
 
Georgia State @ Western Michigan: 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS records for the home team do not scream upset but take a closer look at those scores from lines of -13. They are all SU losses or very close games. One has to go to lines of -20 or more to get solid ATS covers. I looked them up and none of those close games or SU losses came from teams looking to avenge a loss from the season before and we all obviously know what Georgia State did in Knoxville two weeks ago. Maybe the revenge factor gets them over the hump.....

gast-wmu.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Louisiana Tech @ Bowling Green: @s--k whatdya got on BG? Didn't you play them last week? I'm getting some good results in my queries for BG. They have slight advantage in turnover margin, almost as good QB efficiency, much better defense, and offense not too much worse than LTech. BG looks like a good home dog to me. I'm getting a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS record for the home team here.
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No I had over. Didn't think BG would be shutout like that. K St nearly got over by themselves. It made me a little mad to be that close with only one team putting in work.

I could play them, but being greedy would want more pts. I would think BG can score, but after last week...LaTech wasn't completely awful at Horns, but struggled in RZ and couldn't cash their drives. If the question is would I risk money on BG to win this game straight up, I would not. With pts...not right now, but maybe.
 
Maineroad said:
I'm intrigued by the 35-1 on the Citadel (at GT). Would like better value than 13-1 on South Carolina State (at USF), but wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mix at the end).
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I think Tech's D could stop The Citadel's option O with their eyes closed.
 
Maineroad said:
My fellow UVA types - inveterate pessimists, all - agree with you. I still can't watch the highlights from the 1995 game, figuring that if I watch it long enough, Dunn will eventually score to beat us. That, I think, was the only game I ever went to by myself. It might also be the only game I didn't watch from the student section. Ah memories. FSU fans that night, by the way, could not have been nicer and more congratulatory. Classy.
Click to expand...
It's funny. I can remember where I was for every Clemson-FSU game from 1988-2000, including being at the game several of those years.

1998 -- when they beat us 48-0 -- was the only time I interacted with FSU fans, and I'll never forget how gracious the FSU fans wre at the sports bar in Dallas where we both had our viewing party that yeare.
 
Has anyone considered Colorado State? Arkansas is a mess. I did not see any of last week's game, but Col St showed some spark and decent offense vs Colorado. I am probably going to place a small wager on them at +10. I assume that the Mountain West is getting no respect agst SEC, but from what I have seen Colorado State is worth consideration
 
bones said:
Has anyone considered Colorado State? Arkansas is a mess. I did not see any of last week's game, but Col St showed some spark and decent offense vs Colorado. I am probably going to place a small wager on them at +10. I assume that the Mountain West is getting no respect agst SEC, but from what I have seen Colorado State is worth consideration
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I like csu +10 for sure. Not sure if they can get the outright W on the road.
 
My dogs last week were mostly great for a half but pretty much all them crumbled and failed to even cover despite leading at half. Hopefully that turns around.
 
bones said:
Has anyone considered Colorado State? Arkansas is a mess. I did not see any of last week's game, but Col St showed some spark and decent offense vs Colorado. I am probably going to place a small wager on them at +10. I assume that the Mountain West is getting no respect agst SEC, but from what I have seen Colorado State is worth consideration
Click to expand...

Arky defense got sliced and diced by a ol piss offense that couldn’t do anything vs Memphis. Dunno how much credit should go to rich rod possibly figuring out his qb strengths of was it simply the ineptitude of Razorbacks?
 
JROCK1966 said:
Wow! I didn't even bother to look at the Kansas/BC game. Look what I missed.....

:passedout:
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Has a 20 point fav ever got waxed that bad?? I mean it has prob happened but I sure don’t recall it. Pretty crazy,, honestly if I was gonna bet that game I’d have prob laid the points, lol. Glad I stayed away, I have huge doubts about BC secondary but holy hell I would’ve never guessed ku would rush for 300+!
 
2daBank said:
Has a 20 point fav ever got waxed that bad?? I mean it has prob happened but I sure don’t recall it. Pretty crazy,, honestly if I was gonna bet that game I’d have prob laid the points, lol. Glad I stayed away, I have huge doubts about BC secondary but holy hell I would’ve never guessed ku would rush for 300+!
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As a huge KU fan watching this game we were stunned as well. I have a friend who actually laid 1200 on the BC ML. I was leaning BC -20 after the start we’ve had this year but I hate rooting for a route on my boys. We were trying to find upsets by this many points but couldn’t What an amazing night
 
KingKrunked said:
As a huge KU fan watching this game we were stunned as well. I have a friend who actually laid 1200 on the BC ML. I was leaning BC -20 after the start we’ve had this year but I hate rooting for a route on my boys. We were trying to find upsets by this many points but couldn’t What an amazing night
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Biggest one I’ve ever even hit in ncaa hoops was 17-18 few years back in that Hawaii tourney hosted by chaminade or whoever the hell they are! Took them vs cal I believe. Next time I pick a 20 point fb dog to win outright and it happens be the 1st time! Lol
 
The Kansas upset last night has inspired me to go out on a limb today (not like I need too much convincing anyway).

What about South Alabama +837 currently on scoresandodds.

Memphis has been known to occasionally be upset, last year they lost 3x as favorites (at Navy -7, at Tulane -14.5, bowl WF-3).

Last year Memphis beat South Alabama 52-35, however USA outgained them in the first half, tied 21-21 HT and only trailed by 4 entering the 4th qrt.

Last week Southern outgained Memphis in the 1st H, score 27-17 (Memphis ret'd blk'd punt and another blk'd punt set up 21y TD drive) - Memphis D did dominate in the 2nd H.

Memphis is without last year's super RB Henderson and their top RB this year, Patrick Taylor (1122y '18) is out this week. rFR and HS QB Kenny Gainwell has been getting most carries, he is only 191 lbs. Second string Kylan Watkins is only 178 lbs. The makeup of these two RBs is quite different than the Henderson-Taylor combo. Last year's excellent OL does have 3 new starters this year. Gainwell had a 46y TD run last week vs Southern, outside of that Memphis averaged just 3.2ypc.

It will be on Brady White more this week, however he isn't as good on the road as he is at home...in seven road/neutral games he's thrown 7 INTs (only 2 at home), just 10 TDs (17 at home) and completing only 55% of passes (72% at home).

Memphis DL may be without starting 300 lb O'Bryan Goodson this week who was out last week after injury vs Ole Miss.

USA RB Tra Minter is an impact player and the OL is breaking in just 1 new starter (JUCO at LT).

USA D isn't too bad has a couple good DLs (Turner and Beaton), Yancy at MLB is healthy this year and leading the way and a couple DBs that can impact the game or capitalize on or force any White errors in DJ Daniels and Jalen Thompson.

USA D did hold Nebraska to 276 TY in week 1 (4.73 ypp) and forced 3 turnovers.

BIGGEST CONCERN is going to be USA QB play. Cephus Johnson has thrown 2 INTs in each game so far this year...compared to last year's QBs this could be a liability.

From a Memphis perspective, I wouldn't feel great with the game being squarely on the shoulders of White without knowing they have a capable running game. For their D, maybe the 1st H vs Southern was a fluke as they did shut them down in the 2nd H and the D looked pretty good vs Ole Miss - so that Memphis D could impact this game.

From a South Alabama perspective, this is a statement game chance vs an established good program coming to their stadium in year 2 of Steve Campbell's tenure. A good running game and possibly an improved D should give them a chance coupled with White's historical worse production away from home.
 
KingKrunked said:
As a huge KU fan watching this game we were stunned as well. I have a friend who actually laid 1200 on the BC ML. I was leaning BC -20 after the start we’ve had this year but I hate rooting for a route on my boys. We were trying to find upsets by this many points but couldn’t What an amazing night
Click to expand...
I cant remember the line of Stanford/ USC....... that one year
 
I have a Stanford shirt from that USC game. It says "biggest upset ever". Not by number probably, but based off where those programs were, that was huge one. It was awesome!
 
What is cool about the Kansas upset...they covered the 20 point spread in victory!
 
0-8 ML bets...all favorites and no upsets makes s--k a dull boy

Kansas State 50 to win 100
Pitt 50 to win 307
ECU 50 to win 117
South Bama 50 to win 418
Southern Miss 50 to win 62
 
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