Week 3 ML Dogs

The GT - Pitt game is really enormous for both teams. It is hard for me to see either having a "successful" season with a loss here. Both losing last week adds to the urgency of getting 1-0 in ACC play. It is also a hard game for me to pick a side in. I do tend to lean Pitt.

One difference I think this year is the Pitt O should be in a better place than they were for this game last year. Now, the Penn State game doesn't exactly back that up, but Pitt did blow some scoring chances in that game. Pitt was extremely offensively challenged last year, especially with DiNucci at QB. So if you believe that Pickett is an upgrade, I do, then you probably expect Pitt O to be improved this year.

Pitt's potential offensive improvement this year is important related to this GT game because last year they were 1 of 13 on 3rd down. Pitt only had 11 FDs all game (GT 25). So if Pitt can sustain more drives, stay on the field longer it will help their D. And I think that could/should happen.

I am unsure on GT's D, guess I defer to Johnny on that.

Just a tough game to forecast I think.

Seeing GT favored on the road is curious to me. Open at Pick? Now 4 down from a high of 5.5? I wonder how much of the PSU-Pitt outcome influenced where the line is, you know, just thinking Pitt is awful and GT crushed them last year. I think Pitt was in that PSU game for a half and then the better team pulled away as Pitt continually shot themselves in the foot. Vs GT last year, I think if Pitt had a competent O the outcome would've been different. So seeing them getting the points at home has me looking that way. In terms of ML, I would probably feel more comfortable just taking the points, although I do think they can win. They could also lose by 7....so who knows.
 
Pitt beat them 2 of the last 3 years, and 2 years ago their lowest rushing total of the year was against them

2016 was a much better year tho. 2017 poor and this is basically same D minus two best d backs Maddox and Whitehead
 
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GT struggling to avoid mistakes under new d-coordinator. Took app 1.5 years to improve under him will GT learn faster? USF magnified thoee problems by playing fast but Pitt likes to play much slower
 
You are reaching VC. Giving up 400 to USF isn't impressive but it was that type of game. Defense is better than under Roof, just assume that, he coaches up their instinct and resources, hence 3-4
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
You are reaching VC. Giving up 400 to USF isn't impressive but it was that type of game. Defense is better than under Roof, just assume that
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How am I reaching? All the blown assignments lining up incorrectly all the other mistakes on D? Will it not take time for improvement with new aggressive 3-4 scheme?
 
It's back guys!! You may recall I began running these queries last year towards the end of the season and we hit on Vandy the last week of the 2017 season. Well, we have a play active this weekend!!

Away Dogs, of less than 5pts, season is >=2016, worse total defense than opponent, and both dog & favorite have negative turnover margins are an incredible 14-1 ATS (93.3%) and 12-3 SU (80%) over the past 2 years. This trend is active, again, on Oregon State this week. Good luck on what you decide Gents!

greatSDQL!.jpg
 
Here's the one where we hit Idaho on the last week of the season. Difference from post above is the line raised to 10 and the season is only 2017. It went an incredible 19-2 ATS and fairly good 14-7 SU. Still active on Oregon State this weekend.

greatSDQL2.jpg
 
At the start of the week I was wondering how I might limit the number of ML plays, upon deeper thought, I have a hard time finding high probability ones.

I think Ball State is one of the best options. Ball State’s last 3 games vs Big Ten teams have been 2015 at Northwestern +19, loss 19-24 in Riley Neal’s 1st career start (I ML’d Ball St there and lost). 2016 at Indiana +16.5, loss 20-30 (game wasn’t that close). 2017 at Illinois, loss 21-24 (Ball St could’ve won). For a 4th, include 2018 at Norte Dame as a quasi-Big Ten team, loss 16-24 +34.5. In 3 out of 4 of these games Ball State showed that their smaller and lower talent level team from Muncie, IN can play well vs P5 level, except for the 2016 game vs IU (IU led 30-0).

That 2016 game vs IU was current HC Mike Neu’s second game ever and IU was a different team back then under Kevin Wilson and that is partially why I am not scared to go against IU now. Rather than relying on strong Os with little D, as the Kevin Wilson teams did; IU has transformed themselves to a more respectable defensive unit, but a more average offensive unit. To illustrate, last year the rushing ypg, ypc and yards per play were at 7 year lows, while most of the key defensive numbers were at 7 year bests.

So Hoosiers have become more dependent on strong defensive efforts, but in 2018 they are still adapting to life without their #1 tackler, #1 sacker, #1 TFLer, #1 PBU’er, #1 INTer and #1 QBHer. The leader in all those statistical categories from last years team is gone and that was actually 5 different players who led those 6 categories. Tom Allen deserves credit with what he has done with that unit, I question however if he has the pieces to reload and sustain it.

And that is important because the best part about Ball State’s team is their O. Riley Neal started most of 2 years before missing all but 3 games in 2017. This year they have a plethora of skill position players; RBs Gilbert and Huntley are both previous 1000y RBs. Dunner is an all-purpose threat. WRs Miller and Hall form a nice duo and TE Nolan Givan is emerging as well, with 6 TDs in his 14 career games (1 in each game this year). With injuries, the OL gained a lot of experience last year as different players got called upon, it’s not a great OL, but also not a bad one and they do have a couple of good pieces (Poenitsch and Joss) to work around.

Last year Ball St was ravaged by injuries, 7 players who started the opener suffered season ending injuries at some point last year. But this is a new season and they benefit from a lot of experience returning. 74% of their yardage returns and 70% of their tackles are back.

I actually think this is the best offense IU will have faced this season to date. FIU is still figuring out their passing game and if Virginia is still figuring out their new identity and in the weather they played in last week it certainly would hinder any offense. No doubt Ball State has more potential to execute at a higher level than both FIU and Virginia so this is will be the biggest challenge for IU’s D and their new faces.

Typically a last place MAC team’s D isn’t going to inspire much confidence, Ball St’s ppg allowed jumped to 40 in 2017, but the total yards allowed actually improved, still north of 400ypg however. This defensive unit can be better than the numbers imply with some veterans in the back 7 and a couple Sophs who are going to make a name for themselves. First year starting Soph LB Jaylin Thomas was PFF’s highest graded LB in the nation last week, and against Notre Dame, not some IAA creampuff. Kind of a nice accomplishment for a MAC doormat huh? Soph Christian Albright is also a player to keep an eye on, he is an OLB/DE type who looks to replace some of the production Ball St lost with All-MAC DE Anthony Wimbush (career sack leader). CB Josh Miller led with 13 PBU’s last year, and made Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List” this year. Both Safeties return, including Soph Crosby who was #2 tackler as a frosh last year. This D actually has some potential. However one looks at the game last week vs Notre Dame, it really can only be encouraging. Ball State had 4 sacks and 10 TFLs vs Irish. They got 3 INTs, as they got good pressure on ND’s QB forcing some bad throws (4 QBH). If there is an obvious weak spot on paper in the D, it is the DL which lost 4 starters from ’17. They are moving to a 3 man front this year to minimize the need to fill 4 spots with rotations. The current 3 starters have played, just not sure about the depth.

I think anyway this game goes, Ball State can compete. If they need to trade scores with IU, this offense can do that. If they find themselves in a lower scoring game, I have some faith in the Ball St D hanging in there. With a good special teams unit, they can make impact plays and important FGs if the game comes down to that as well (K Hagee should finish the season in the top 5 career FGs made, maybe top 3). IU lost their career FG leader FWIW.

Ball State should come in here with a lot of confidence following their game at Notre Dame. They played well enough to be within one score in the final minutes losing by 8. That has to boost their enthusiasm, focus and prep for traveling to Bloomington in a game were IU won't care quite as much as Ball State kids will. Indiana isn't a favorite all that often, but in each year they've been upset in atleast one game ('17 at Maryland, '16 Wake Forest, '15 Rutgers, '14 at Bowling Green, '14 Maryland, '13 Navy, '13 Minnesota, '12 Ball State, '11 Ball State, '11 North Texas). Not a great favorite. IU isn't off to a great favorite start this year, 0-2 ATS. Go Cardinals!
 
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Ball State was down 30-0 against IU and faced a ND team in letdown mode that didn‘t even let Wimbush scramble that played soft coverage as often as it could afford to. That being said I only like 1H cause Ball State doesn‘t quit (see IU and ND games) and it‘s more than happy to backdoor

3 INT‘s but 297 yards allowed from a qb who was confined to the pocket by his coach but isn‘t a pocket passer. ND allowed more tfl vs Ball State than Mich. There was zero creativity in playcalling or effort. Players clearly held themselves back.

Neal low pya and yet low comp % that doesn‘t look good. IU d-line you can praise based on why you praised Ball State‘s —containing opposing rush attack. IU secondary very experienced, should have easier time vs pro style qb than runner Perkins

Im on IU 1H btw
 
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I saw him somewhere recently either posting or viewing a thread. He may be busy evacuating .. I think he may (based on clemson affiliation) be in the hurricane zone
 
I don't have any 'feel' for Missouri at the moment, but thinking about Purdue...if not for critical late game penalties they could be 2-0 instead of 0-2. There was nothing for sure about beating NW even without the personal foul penalty as they would still have to drive the length of the field with little time left. Definitley last week the penalties cost them that game (and credit to EM as well), but ultimately Purdue beat themselves.

Kind of desperate here for Boilers to not fall to 0-3 before B1G play starts. Problem for them QB play just hasn't been good. They blew Mizzou out in Columbia last year, no doubt Mizzou remembers, or does Purdue have some edge against them?

I need to think about this one more because it has crept onto my radar.

Another one that has come to mind is BYU. I think my perception of Wisconsin couldn't be any lower through the first two games. Not sure if BYU is the right opponent to exploit that. Hornibrook was like 18 of 19 passing vs them last year and UW D dominated in Provo. BYU struggled with Cal, but Cal D may be every bit as good as Wisconsin so perhaps that gives them a full game, tape, practice of what didn't work vs that good D to apply and adjust to what they should do vs this good D. Hard to have a ton of faith in this. No doubt most here would be surprised if Badgers lost to BYU, but would we be that surprised really?
 
Yes good point VK. Hornibrook has missed Davis and Cephus it seems.

I may be stretching here, BYU's new OC was at LSU '14-17 as run game / OL coach. So he has coached with Aranda for 2 years and may be more familiar with Wisconsin's techniques on D than a BYU coach otherwise would be. Leonard has his own twists and done quite well for himself and the Badgers, but I believe the fundamentals of what UW does remains similar. Probably not strong enough, just looking for an angle.
 
Believe me i'm the last person who likes Miami, been calling them overrated since middle of last season. But why are they laying only 10 to Toledo? Even if on the road. @Marsski
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Believe me i'm the last person who likes Miami, been calling them overrated since middle of last season. But why are they laying only 10 to Toledo? Even if on the road. @Marsski
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Because Toledo played them tough last year, has a proven better offense outside of QB, and Malik Rosier sucks ass. And home dog, sold out stadium, 16 Toledo kids from Fla....sky high for this one. Unknown QB for Toledo is the only reason not to bet them.

DO you think the Canes give a shit about playing Toledo?
 
BC is good no doubt, its easy to like them, they could be on a mission, im a scared a bit

but the Frosh QB I saw at Tulane was ready. If its same guy, Im fine, Game could be underrated awesome Im hoping

Wake just got nice DB upgrade in to lineup
 
Here is what I am on for week 3, plays are 75% on points, 25% ML

Rutgers + 3 and ML +130
Two bad teams but think Kansas is the weaker, they would not know what to do with a "winning streak"

Syracuse + 3 and ML +130
Home dog, statement game, Fla St in general better athletes but have been unimpressed with coaching and team chemistry

Hawaii + 7 and ML + 200
Going back to the window with the hot offense, Liberty put up 300+ passing yds on Army and think Hawaii will get 400 and score more than Liberty

Texas Tech ML +105
Another home dog, think Ole Miss game more about how good Ole Miss offense is. Houston down to Rice at half week 1, had to rally to win.
Will be game of momentum, hope home team starts strong as Houston can run off points like a slot machine.

Vanderbilt +14 and ML +450
Have doubted Vandy first two weeks but think they can compete, ND wins less impressive then laying 14

Ball State +14.5 and ML +450
More tailing others here and friends who I respect.

Considering USC +3, UC Davis +30

Have 3 long shots I am playing at half unit with 30% points, 10% ML, 10% 1st half ML
ULMonroe +28 and ML +2650 1st half ML ___
Ole Miss +21 and ML +1000 1st half ML ____
BYU +22 and ML +1200 and 1st half ML ___
 
NMSU - they gave up 60 to utah state. They might be terrible and they may have already quit. If they are going to try it might be this game or the utep game and my PR says this is a play. they gave up 60 to utah state. unm offense executing better.
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Yeah, NMSU not in a good place right now.

Martin is saying stuff like:

"Especially on the offensive side, when we have a bad play or a bad drive or a couple of things go wrong, our guys do not respond to that right now," NM State head coach Doug Martin said. "We have talked to them in practice about it. We had it this week when a couple of bad plays and it turned into 10 more bad plays because they can't flip the switch and go on to the next play.

"We are not playing with a lot of confidence right now."

"This team is having a hard time handling last year's success. That is just the fact. There is a mentality that we are not playing with that we had before. Until we get that back, we are going to struggle."

https://www.lcsun-news.com/story/sp...new-mexico-states-loss-utah-state/1249794002/
 
I think the Toledo ML play would have to come down to your opinion of the Toledo QBs. Traditionally Toledo has really good QB play. This is the first time I can remember in a while uncertainty for them at QB. Remember 2 years ago Miami boat raced App St in Boone. UT played them tough last year, but that was also with Woodside at QB and I believe Miami was off the canceled game so they were rusty to start the game.

Should be a fun one to see, I'm looking forward to it. Not betting it though.
 
Can't make too strong of a case for Miami of Ohio here, but I will try and probably take a small stab at them.

Week 1 they lose to a pretty good Marshall team. Marshall led by 14 most of the game, Miami would occasionally cut into it, never getting closer than 7. Miami did drive to the Mar29 and Mar02 being SOD coming away with no points. In the loss they had 444 total yards, actually outgaining Marshall by 1 yard. Marshall started the game hotter on both sides of the ball, Miami D did a good job vs them in the 2nd H. Marshall only scored on one legit TD drive in the 2nd H and then one 11y TD "drive" following a punt return. Marshall has some pretty good skill players. I don't expect Minnesota's O to be as explosive or potent, although Minn does have good D and ST units.

Week 2 Miami only trailed Cincy 7-0 early in the 4th qrt. They had a few chances to make some plays but couldn't. One time Cincy fumbled inside their own 20 and Miami had 4 or 5 players around the ball but couldn't recover it. Another time they had a clipping penalty on a really good punt return that would've given Miami a short field, but instead they were in their own territory and punted. Two plays in the passing game hurt Miami, one time they missed a TD pass early in the 3rd from the UC27, two plays later OPI moved them back and they punted. Then the other key play through the air was a good pbu by Cincy, but the ball bounced off a UC players knee and then a third UC player out of the play INT'd it leading to a 1 yard TD "drive" for UC's 2nd TD. UC did score a late TD with 3 minutes left. But for a 21-0 game it wasn't really that onesided or dominating by Cincy. Weather conditions really favored UC as they prefer to run it, Miami is definitely more of a pass oriented team and not well suited to rely on the running game. For a 21-0 score the first downs were only 13-11. The total yards were only 233-198. Minnesota's D will provide a challenge, but I do not expect Miami to be challenged on two fronts with the weather like they were last week.

Minnesota is a team that is probably going to get better as the season wears on, even without RB Smith. They are relying on 5 starting rFr or Fr on O now, the OL reserve rotation is filled with Fr. The O is going to get better and we are going to see Annexstad be asked to do more with each week. Minnesota is already passing the ball 10 more att on average than they did last year. 2 of their top 3 WRs are Fr. It's not an offense that strikes fear and can certainly be contained by adequate Ds of middle-pack type teams.

Minnesota's D and ST are what they will be winning games with and to a large degree ST and D plays were huge in both their wins to date. This is a nice edge for Gophers.

The edge that Miami brings is they are a very veteran team. 72% of their O yards are back. 100 career OL starts entering 2018 (120 starts 2 games into this season). 72% of tackles are back. By most accounts they are the most experienced team in the MAC.

QB Ragland enters his 3rd year starting (when healthy). He has a career 42-9 TD-INT ratio (28-1 career in RedZone). His #1 target is back and one of the better MAC WRs in James Gardner. Unfortunately Miami has no other exp proven WRs, but Soph Sorenson stepped up to lead vs Marshall (3-106-TD long 54). Miami throws to their RBs a good bit and have two senior good all-purpose type backs to rely on. They don't excell at running the ball, but last year was a 7 year high in rushing ypg and ypc. OL only allowed just 21 sacks, also a 7 year best and all 5 of the 2017 starters are back. This unit should be able to match up against Minnesota's good D.

In terms of MAC Ds, Miami isn't bad. 2017 they were top 3 scoring D ppg, top 4 run D ypg, and top 4 pass D ypg and eff rating. Although penetration for sacks and TFLs are poor. They return alot of experience here as well. 9 starters are back, 7 starters are Sr and 2 Jr. They can be had vs better Os they face, but vs the average type Os they tend to hold up well. Minnesota should fit the average O mold.

Special teams edge decidedly goes to Minnesota. It isn't that Miami is bad in this area, but Minn is good.

The win vs Fresno impressed me, although it wasn't much more than a one possession game throughout. 10-0 HT, 10-7 3rd qrt and Fresno actually took the lead briefly in the 4th. I expect vs most middle-tier bowl caliber teams Minnesota should be involved in tight games.

Situation probably favors Minnesota. Minny does have Big Ten opener on deck (Maryland who beat Gophers last year), but should be playing with more confidence off 2 wins and 3rd game at home. I do question Miami's mindset coming in here off two disappointing meaningful rival games they care alot about; they may've hung their heads for a bit this week. Hopefully they moved on quickly, we'll see how they come out here. For the record, Miami has not beaten a Big Ten team since Ben Roethlisberger was there, 2003. They've lost 12 straight Big Ten games.

I see a Minnesota O going through some changes, with some youth and you never know how that youth is going to respond and react in situations. I respect Minnesota, but do not fear them and don't think they do any one thing especially well especially now that Smith is out. A veteran MAC D should be able to matchup. I am a little fearful of the Gopher D vs a not very explosive Miami O. Miami will need to sustain drives and move chains, that is what they are pretty decent at. I think Miami should be able to avoid turnovers so that is a big thing there. This could be a close game and if it is close in the 4th quarter either team could win. Fresno easily could've prevailed last week had they not failed on their RB pass into the EZ (INT'd).

The line and ML odds seem quite high. It may be influenced by Miami losing 21-0 last week which wasn't as bad as it looked on the final score. I have been disappointed with Miami this year, I thought they would split their first two games. It isn't like they have been grossly outplayed in either though. Have to take a chance on the value of this one. I would be surprised if it was more than a one score game if both teams play to the best of their potential. X factor will be Minnesota making a key play in the return game, hard to count on that, but with a good long range K and some good return personnel that may play a role that Miami can't exactly match.

Go Redhawks!
 
Thanks, hope it plays out well. Two MAC vs Big Ten MLs. Really like the Ball State one and feel ok with risk on Miami Oh. Kinda struggling to find any other higher return MLs. I have dropped Purdue, actually I think I would take Missouri the more I thought about it.

Looking into Vandy again; I just know that ND isn't going to look as bad as they did last week. That bothers me knowing that ND has to hate how bad they played last week, and the coaches hate it and they probably had a really good week of practice; would rather Vandy be sneaking up on them with ND feeling good about themselves. I do like Vandy's front 7 on D quite a bit, think they are potentially vulnerable in the back end. They've been able to be disruptive vs MTSU and Nevada to protect their secondary in a way that they may not vs ND. I am just not big on ND overall, bet against them twice this year and don't really see any reason to not bet against them here with the points other than knowing they are going to step their game up. ND D vs Vandy O is going to make or break the play most likely. I don't know, hard for me to bet Dores win this one.

Starting to think about LSU. Need to dig more on that one.

A couple smaller MLs like Hawaii, UMass, Pitt, maybe I've come around on Cuse some....but I like to find the more exciting bigger upsets, might just be 2 shots on those today unless a light goes off on LSU.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Anyone like San Diego State?
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I'd like to...but I just don't know about it. Arizona State has been hard to trust historically, maybe that is different now?

There is plenty of familiarity for this game. New ASU DC was previously at SDSt coaching under Long. So his knowledge of what SDSt is going to try and do, what the gameplan was for last year and how ASU can prepare for it differently or any potential wrinkles for this year is an advantage for ASU. SDSt O should be pretty familiar with the 3-3-5 and I doubt ASU will run it as effectively without the occasional bust compared to SDSt's knowledge of the system. Tough call with Agnew at QB.

I suppose I would feel more comfortable just picking ASU to win, but can see it being a close game and at current line I am not sure how confident I would be laying pts.

A game I'd like to have action on to make it more interesting but no idea what way I'd go at the moment.

Do you have anything you were thinking on the game?
 
Great thread, guys. Helped me enormously last week. There were six games where I split my bets 50-50 between ATS and ML.
Two were flat out losers. I would have lost both even if I went 100% spread. So essentially I went 4-0 on my 50-50plays.

I’m sorry to be a parasite, but after over 50 year’s betting on college football, my aging brain is programmed to make decisions on Friday , and I can’t seem to change that. Gotta thank all who contributed to this thread.:asskiss::cheers3:
 
Sorry about at ass. Don’t know where it came from, and don’t know how to delete it
 
I'm not seeing much talk on TCU anywhere. Been toiling with that one myself and seeing +14 -115 out there it seems like a nice option for a 75/25 split side/ML
 
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