Week 3 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

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Staff member
WEEK 2 WINNERS :
South Florida +135
Duke +130
Eastern Michigan +500
Kansas +128
Buffalo +165
East Carolina +475
Navy +200
Colorado +140
Coastal Carolina +280
ULM +175
Colorado St +430
Kentucky +430
Maine +350
California +110
Arizona St +162

A 31 year drought was broken at the Swamp Saturday night when Kentucky beat Florida.


Lets get our Week 3 Discussion going.

One that jumps off the page to me at first run thru is Cuse opened +2.5 at home vs FSU. That is interesting to me.....

Lets have a another good week fellas!!!
 
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1st run thru:

Wake Forest
Murray St. 1st Half (this is now the biggest letdown spot for Kentucky football I've seen in my lifetime. They will not lose the game but there is NO FUCKING WAY this team will be ready to play by noon Saturday.)
Toledo (nice looking choice @Ryno14 )
Ball St. perhaps? Or was Notre Dame simply sleepwalking last Saturday?
Rutgers....c'mon I liked the spot Kansas was in last Saturday but let's not get carried away and annoint them as favs this quickly.
Hawaii.....still not sold on Army's pass defense.
UAB?
Vandy?? What would a win at Notre Dame do for the Dore's program?
BYU 1st half perhaps? Wisky struggled with NM early.
LSU? Hard to go against that Auburn QB tho.
North Texas? CSU's defense is flat out awful...how Arky could not score 50 against them is beyond me.
EMU....still under-rated perhaps?
UL-Laf 1st half...I'm going to look into this one. MSU had a few letdowns last season after big wins. Wonder if the new coach has yet to fix that part of the culture down in Stark-Vegas.
Marshall?? Gamecocks had to be shell-shocked at the beating they took. How quickly can they shake it off and not let it fester?
UL-Monroe 1st Half....letdown for the Aggies after that tough loss?
NMSU.....rivalry game.
TCU?? Can their defense slow down that OSU Offense?
SDST....tough spot for AZST.


:eatingchinese:
 
I'll let things come to me this week. But off the bat I'm interested in Ball State, Vanderbilt, Ohio, Southern Miss, Boise, Mia, Oh, and Marshall.

Indiana is a winnable game for Ball State.

The ND game vs Ball State has to be taken with a little bit of salt I think. I just can not believe that ND is that bad offensively, but then again, they were that bad offensively at times last year...I would prefer them to have looked better last week though. I do not really like trying to pick the upsets against teams that know they played bad last week because the potential for improvement is greater. So I expect a better ND to show up. I think I know what I will get with Vandy, and I tend to like it.

I thought this summer Ohio could beat UVA or Cincy, or if things fell right, both. Was a little concerned about their week 1 game however. Is Ohio as good as I thought they were?

I was down on Southern Miss last week, but that never prevented me from backing said team the next week. Would figure these programs to be fairly similar in type of athletes, a more experienced team in App St, but the odds here seem pretty high for teams I think of in equal terms. Home opener for Appy so they will be jacked though.

Boise may be a better team although they will face better athletes across the board than they normally go against, their track record says they can compete. Not sure I trust Cornelius.

I am starting to worry that Miami Ohio just isn't good and now they have lost both their rival games to open the season. Pretty desperate game for Miami, or do they hang their heads? The Miami I thought I knew could win this game ,but now?

The potential liability with Marshall is their Fr QB. I like the Marshall D, but if SC's head is right Cocks are going to get some points. I want to believe Marshall is good enough to score back, but I don't have any reference on if this QB can do it vs P5 level competition. Would rather they have a veteran at QB for this.
 
The thing I worry about with North Texas is that everything has come so easy for them this year having not been challenged at all, now they face a bigger, stronger and supposedly faster team across the board...one who is off a loss. See I get hung up on that sometimes, I don't often like ML against a team off a loss because I think there is more desire to improve and get better having just failed. NT knows what they want to do, and Arkansas isn't that good, so it certainly could happen. Chad Morris should have a pretty good notebook on NT from his SMU days. But this is something I like to look for, team A knows what they want to do and is experienced in doing it and team B is still trying to figure things out and team B is favored - look for team A to possibly win. Had Ark won last week I would probably like this more.

I like Syracuse, I always like Dungey, but the odds are so short here. FSU's OL is probably the biggest reason to not like FSU and Cuse has an alright DL. However, you never really want to trust Cuse D....I mean if FSU can figure anything out on O the Cuse D isn't one you want to back when they are almost the favorite what are they +2? Wouldn't the Samford game provide some urgency for FSU, or do we think they are just going to keep sucking every week? I don't know. I rather look for better return on investment.

Hawaii kicking at 12:00 eastern. Not sure if Rolo was on the staff when they kicked at noon eastern last time, whatever year that was. So that is an x factor to consider. If this was played at a more familiar time for Hawaii's body clock I wouldn't even think about it. Hawaii just faced Navy's option 2 weeks ago.
 
Wish I had bet the ML's I mentioned in here last week instead of doing what I did. Anyway .. here goes ...

My don't likey:

Wake Forest - Generally like home dogs on weekdays of this size but no Hinton (sp), their defense is having issues and the tulane team that took them to overtime (granted wake was better in regulation) is now laying about a fg to uab. I think BC has aspirations and a game in the spotlight is a chance at respect.

Georgia State - Should be an angry Memphis team and georgia state stinks

Colorado State - won't get but 9 first downs in the game and their defense can't stop people on long fields let alone short ones.

Iowa state - ou hitting on all cylinders. ISU qb injury and no linebacker to step in and beat ou like last year. They won't be sleeping on isu the way they did a year ago when the qb change happened.

Temple - I think terps are good. I think Temple is not.

Troy - Martinez probably out. Troy is decent. I like the other side though and was generally impressed with Nebraska.

UNC - Think UCF is down a notch, particularly defensively but unc is a mess, couldn't cover guys last week and elliott is a terrible qb and the ucf kid is pretty good. Would be surprised. If you think UNC is winning maybe just take the under because they aren't winning su and having this thing go over if that kid is at qb. Team seems in disarray. Talent is there to beat ucf but the team as a whole isn't good enough.

UTEP - I will play marty robbins every day for a year if they win

UTSA - they have no shot here.

Southern Miss - Well box score shows app st had a hard time running on charlotte in what was a deceiving final score. Southern miss off a bad loss. I just don't think appy is the sleeping favorite kind of team generally. Wouldn't be a TOTAL shock though.

Kent State - defense won't be able to hold up

ECU - nope. Some match up issues with VT pass defense being good and the VT offense having some power based players. I don't think ECU can defend enough.

Pitt - should be mad after penn state went hurry up against them and tossed it around up 85,995 pts on them but generally think GT fairs well in ACC this year. Just kick the kickoffs out of bounds. Not enough value on Pitt. Obviously capable of beating GT though.

UAB - Tulane offense not looking great, particularly the offensive line but UAB struggled with the Coastal Carolina schemes so it might not be the best match up for them. Obviously Tulane qualifies as a not so good team being the favorite and the line is low so it isn't like UAB can't win.

GA Southern - tough front to run the option into; Probably a week dabo gets after them too.

LSU - Teams are pretty even everywhere but QB and HC. I usually don't like to be behind on the brain trust. That said, LSU defense is nasty and Auburn struggled to score on the last nasty d they saw. A few bounces and it could happen. Think there may have been a key injury that makes that defense less nasty thought. That defense played as good a first half as any has all year sans UNT.


Illinois - While I trust USF to lay an egg at the drop of a hat .. that usually doesn't happen until they lose legitimately first. USF defense looked like it could be had somewhat but that was against the option.

BYU - Offense just not good enough.

SMU - will they get 150 yards? I don't think so

Cmich - an argument could be made in that they almost beat uk, they had 6 turnovers to lose to kansas, there is familiarity and NIU has all of one td. I think NIU rolls.



Maybe or maybe not:

Ball State - Have shown signs of being pretty good. QB has moxy. Indiana capable of shitting the bed. instate rivalry that Ball State will get up for and Indiana might not. Problem is Indiana is considerably more talented at most positions. I actually wouldn't be shocked by it and at two td that is saying there is probably value.

Hawaii - there is an old saying about dancing with the girl you took to the party. Maybe ride hawaii until she bucks ya? Team is executing well offensively, has already faced the option this year and army has no one who can guard the stud wr. BRUTAL travel for hawaii though and you need legs to battle option teams. Army might be best team they have faced so far. Such a wide array of outcomes here and none would be all that shocking.

Toledo - Pretty decent team, pretty decent little hfa, game has been circled all summer, decent athletes for a MAC school and last I saw Rosier is still at QB for Miami. Toledo usually crushes the mac schools by owning the offensive line of scrimmage and that is unlikely here. I don't like this one but there are a few reasons too.

Cuse - My problem with liking this is that the value has been sucked out. It has been sucked out because cuse has played well and fsu has not. But what is this line a few weeks ago and what if taggert systems light goes off on these guys? Seems like QB running would be something FSU could slow down and not sure cuse has shown much else. It could work enough if fsu oline is terrible or they are still confused about what they are doing on offense. FSU with a lot of big play guys and I saw some of those wmich plays against cuse which doesn't inspire me on their defense. Perfectly reasonable to like cuse based on what we have seen, it just isn't for me. This could be one of those "I am too slow to react" missed plays.

NCSU - quality team at home.

Miami Ohio - do a little line comparison .. moh basically a coin flip with marshall, lose looking ahead to cinci where they game planned to go ragland .. then they have to play in weather and ragland cannot do his thing against a tough playing bearcat defense. But Marshall 12.5 at Scarolina and MOH 14 at Minny?? that doesn't add up right. Worried Moh deflated and minny is gonna ride their momentum though.

Charlotte- showed a decent rush defense and odu has been struggling to run for some reason. buy low, sell high. ODU is low at this line. So you aren't getting the bang for your buck you would need.

EMU - just beat purdue at purdue. surely they can beat buffalo at buffalo. I am a buffalo fanboy and have been for a year now but these teams are pretty even on a neutral and eastern lost a lot of close games last year .. maybe this year that evens out. They try hard on every play. You will get the effort. Purdue game was in bad weather and purdue kept fumbling the wet pigskin. So not sure they win that one in fair weather. Should be a good game.



Me do likey:

Rutgers - Kansas was plus six in turnovers, and cmich is terrible. Rutgers is sneaky better than people might think as they played vanilla vs texas state after having an easy lead and were just outmatched at tosu. QB is capable and defense will be very tough for kansas to move it against. how much slower will the game be for rutgers? What is this line if Cmich doesn't turn it over six times and beats kansas by 5? Pretty sure wrong team is favored and pretty sure the market has yet to catch up to the severe decline of cmich year over year, thus prompting them to give kansas too much credit.

Vanderbilt - It's not that I think the line is really off but Winbush is gonna cost his team a game somewhere because he sucks and this could be it. Vanderbilt cannot just line it up and run on ND though ... they will have to show more offensively than they have. ND defense is pretty nasty. ND high vs mich, flat vs ball st ... should show up here.

Ohio - The line is ridiculous so why not take a shot at the ML where there will be value. I know of at least one person who made Ohio the favorite. Quite a bit of downgrading of Ohio based on the Howard game I guess in comparison to what a bad kent state did to Howard. Pretty sure they were eyeing this one.

Boise - few teams have looked better but not sure the competition is right and they caught Troy at the perfect time (game one). That is one of the better home fields in college football and okst might have some speed advantages. Boise looks really sharp and really hungry. Gundy > Harsin though. I like it but should probably be more of a maybe than a likey

San Jose State - Just kidding. I threw them in as a flyer against Washington State in last weeks ml dog thread thinking they could score some. They scored 0 and that was deceiving as they should have had negative points.

Texas State - S Bama qualifies as a bad team favorite. Texas State would have to take away the wrs but the sbama defense can be had. tahoe legend post about backing bad teams lingers in your head on this one but might have sneaky value.

Tired.. more tomorrow night
 
me no likey

Ole Miss - Seem to give bama as much trouble as anyone and they can score some points. I don;t play a ton of moneylines but if I did I would have zero interest in trying to beat this alabama team

MTSU - If they get whipped by a lot here they are looking at three awful games in a row. No matter how sleepy uga might be after shutting up the s carolina fan boards last week, it's hard for me to envision this one. Vandy handled them with ease and they are just outclassed here.

Louisiana - you would think this is a tough spot for miss state but they are really good and it might be hard for them to be asleep enough for louisiana to keeo it close

ULM - I get it .. they can put up pts on occasion and the Aggies could have a hangover. hangover would be bad but i think it takes actual alcohol poisoning to lose this one.

Western Kentucky - Looked bad again. Then again, so did ville. Ville defense too much and wku just doesn't play good defense unless hornibrook drops back to pass

Marshall - great spot for them but I this s carolina bounces back. disappointed fan base needs to be appeased.

TCU - if their plan was to play an awful first half knowing tosu was probably watching the game on tv in an attempt to be underestimated it may or may not have worked on TOSU but it did work on me. Based on smu game, I cannot trust TCU to not be dominated up front, the buckeye QB is better and the team should be improving defensively each week. First road game (neutrak) for TOSU so maybe they struggle a bit more to execute.

Maybe or maybe not

UNT - Arkansas with an early season crossroads game. Lose this and it could start falling off the rails and hang the head time. Thoroughly outplayed CSU last week for 3 quarters before the altitude, the refs and their own coach all conspired against them. CSU was able to throw it around in the hurry up late but not sure how much of that was related to Arkansas just gassing. But it gives hope that UNT could pass it around. Impossible for Arkansas to take unt lightly after the first two weeks but you never know. Not sure about the trenches in this game for unt either. And unt a way better team at home than away.

Umass 3 - FIU pass defense has been vulnerable so far and umass should be able to score on them. FIU has generally overachieved in two road games so will they be that mich better at home or do we have line value? tough game to handicap

Akron - NW has shown an inability to score for the last six quarters.

NMSU - they gave up 60 to utah state. They might be terrible and they may have already quit. If they are going to try it might be this game or the utep game and my PR says this is a play. they gave up 60 to utah state. unm offense executing better.

SDSU - Bad spot for ASU but no Chapman I don't think. Outplayed Stanford for a half so capable of outplaying ASU. Something feels different about this ASU team though and I think they compete even off the huge win last week.

Me likey

oregon State - Gonna be a lot of pts scored. Oregon state getting better every week now that they have an engaged coach. I don't see how nevada stops the oregon state attack. i honestly think nevada scores a lot too. Game could be a coin flip making the plus plus appealing.

Purdue - All about mindset here. If they do not pack it in, you have a pretty good team at over a TD worth of ml value at home off a bad game. Have to be mentally ready this week to play against what Missouri does. Purdue defense a little suspect and so is the offense. This one just feels right to me because based off of one really bad game in the rain the line has been inflated through some key numbers.


UTAH - that place will be rocking and the utes defense is nasty. Washington has shown the inability to score aainst good defense during the browning era. 7 pt spread at home and 7 pts is a lot against that defense. You would think they have a shot in the fourth
 
Ummmm don't look now boys but this game is going to be much closer then folks might think. I did some queries with the margins of previous games and home dogs who have won their 1st two games by greater than 20 & 19pts respectively, facing an opponent who won their 1st two games by 30 and 20pts respectively, are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. I looked up the boxscore for USC and Stanford and the Cardinal was up 28-17 over USC at the half in the lone loss. Should be a nice ML available for 1st half in this game. Active on Ole Miss this weekend. Holy!!

:popcorn:

olemiss.jpg
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
GT QB is dinged up, kinda bad I think. 3rd teamer Oliver did amazing job. Best B back out. Horne was amazing for USF.

Pitt is underrated and off weird second half score deal with Penn State.

I hate it but Pitt wins here imo
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I saw they had an OL get hurt vs USF too. Maybe he returned, i'm not sure?

I still believe in Pitt's potential this year despite the PSU game. This game here with GT feels like a 50-50 game. Biggest concern is how long Pitt hangs their heads after the loss for their most important game of the year. That is why so many coaches don't like to give some games extra emphasis, because if you lose them how do you pick yourself up? Well this is the ACC opener and if they want to be a champion they have to play well in conference. That would be my hope for them to get off the mat and reset themselves. I like GT too, kind of like the Duke-NW game last week, GT and Pitt are two teams I look to play on this year.
 
s--k said:
I saw they had an OL get hurt vs USF too. Maybe he returned, i'm not sure?

I still believe in Pitt's potential this year despite the PSU game. This game here with GT feels like a 50-50 game. Biggest concern is how long Pitt hangs their heads after the loss for their most important game of the year. That is why so many coaches don't like to give some games extra emphasis, because if you lose them how do you pick yourself up? Well this is the ACC opener and if they want to be a champion they have to play well in conference. That would be my hope for them to get off the mat and reset themselves. I like GT too, kind of like the Duke-NW game last week, GT and Pitt are two teams I look to play on this year.
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Let's play GT as home dogs soon
 
RetroVK said:
me no likey

Ole Miss - Seem to give bama as much trouble as anyone and they can score some points. I don;t play a ton of moneylines but if I did I would have zero interest in trying to beat this alabama team

MTSU - If they get whipped by a lot here they are looking at three awful games in a row. No matter how sleepy uga might be after shutting up the s carolina fan boards last week, it's hard for me to envision this one. Vandy handled them with ease and they are just outclassed here.

Louisiana - you would think this is a tough spot for miss state but they are really good and it might be hard for them to be asleep enough for louisiana to keeo it close

ULM - I get it .. they can put up pts on occasion and the Aggies could have a hangover. hangover would be bad but i think it takes actual alcohol poisoning to lose this one.

Western Kentucky - Looked bad again. Then again, so did ville. Ville defense too much and wku just doesn't play good defense unless hornibrook drops back to pass

Marshall - great spot for them but I this s carolina bounces back. disappointed fan base needs to be appeased.

TCU - if their plan was to play an awful first half knowing tosu was probably watching the game on tv in an attempt to be underestimated it may or may not have worked on TOSU but it did work on me. Based on smu game, I cannot trust TCU to not be dominated up front, the buckeye QB is better and the team should be improving defensively each week. First road game (neutrak) for TOSU so maybe they struggle a bit more to execute.

Maybe or maybe not

UNT - Arkansas with an early season crossroads game. Lose this and it could start falling off the rails and hang the head time. Thoroughly outplayed CSU last week for 3 quarters before the altitude, the refs and their own coach all conspired against them. CSU was able to throw it around in the hurry up late but not sure how much of that was related to Arkansas just gassing. But it gives hope that UNT could pass it around. Impossible for Arkansas to take unt lightly after the first two weeks but you never know. Not sure about the trenches in this game for unt either. And unt a way better team at home than away.

Umass 3 - FIU pass defense has been vulnerable so far and umass should be able to score on them. FIU has generally overachieved in two road games so will they be that mich better at home or do we have line value? tough game to handicap

Akron - NW has shown an inability to score for the last six quarters.

NMSU - they gave up 60 to utah state. They might be terrible and they may have already quit. If they are going to try it might be this game or the utep game and my PR says this is a play. they gave up 60 to utah state. unm offense executing better.

SDSU - Bad spot for ASU but no Chapman I don't think. Outplayed Stanford for a half so capable of outplaying ASU. Something feels different about this ASU team though and I think they compete even off the huge win last week.

Me likey

oregon State - Gonna be a lot of pts scored. Oregon state getting better every week now that they have an engaged coach. I don't see how nevada stops the oregon state attack. i honestly think nevada scores a lot too. Game could be a coin flip making the plus plus appealing.

Purdue - All about mindset here. If they do not pack it in, you have a pretty good team at over a TD worth of ml value at home off a bad game. Have to be mentally ready this week to play against what Missouri does. Purdue defense a little suspect and so is the offense. This one just feels right to me because based off of one really bad game in the rain the line has been inflated through some key numbers.


UTAH - that place will be rocking and the utes defense is nasty. Washington has shown the inability to score aainst good defense during the browning era. 7 pt spread at home and 7 pts is a lot against that defense. You would think they have a shot in the fourth
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Count me as super impressed with herm. I admit I was dubious, no more, he is so organized and passionate, team already loves him and their QB is the best in the pac12
 
Count me as super impressed with herm. I admit I was dubious, no more, he is so organized and passionate, team already loves him and their QB is the best in the pac12
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Manny? He's broke my heart before. Hope he doesn't break your's next.
 
@RetroVK

With no "time to post my week 3 card so far" I'd like to ask you here...

I believe you preferred SMiss last week. Was that a ULM fade or a affirmative SM? I thought I had read you liked some things about ULM last year.

I ask because it relates to this week with SM at App St. I saw what you said above. Would be curious what your PR would say for this game...like what did you have this line at in August and what do you have it now...and has all that much really changed. Other than we know App St has a good option at QB and SM has a guy they didn't expect to play taking snaps.
 
12.5 pts better by pr
3 pt hfa
15.5 for the line.

The pr line is pretty in line from a few weeks ago.

Abraham threw it around and did a lot of good things but the turnovers were really costly by him and USM. They certainly win that game vs ulm more than they lose it though ULM did a nice job against the run.

App State yards are a little deceiving though they didn't throw an incompletion and averaged 19.7 per attempt on the 15 passes. Charlotte did a decent job against the App St run game.

If they play it in weather then you have to drop the line from that though. However, I don't see anything glaring in matchups to make me want to change it much though pace could be slow which might make that line a little smaller.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Ummmm don't look now boys but this game is going to be much closer then folks might think. I did some queries with the margins of previous games and home dogs who have won their 1st two games by greater than 20 & 19pts respectively, facing an opponent who won their 1st two games by 30 and 20pts respectively, are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. I looked up the boxscore for USC and Stanford and the Cardinal was up 28-17 over USC at the half in the lone loss. Should be a nice ML available for 1st half in this game. Active on Ole Miss this weekend. Holy!!

:popcorn:

View attachment 34506
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The more I look into this the more I like it. I cannot remember the last time I looked up the NCAA Team Defensive stats and did not see Alabama in the top 10. They're 49th!! (see below) This Ole Miss offense is for real and they will score. Ta'Mu (sp? and QB for Miss) is no joke. Ole Miss 1st Half ML is my play and I think I'm putting some of my lunch money down on the FG spread and have some fun watching this game. Southern Illinois is the 4th rated offense in FCS averaging well over 500ypg. Considering the possibility of a letdown after whipping TTech the previous week (and having the greatest dynasty on tap the next week) I can ease my mind and forgive the Rebel D somewhat for the 1st half performance last week. What a sandwich game for them. They did shut them down 2nd half. Everybody looks at this and gives Ole Miss no chance but stats don't lie. This is not the same Bama D we've seen the past several years and this game gonna be different. Stand by!!!

bama1.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
The more I look into this the more I like it. I cannot remember the last time I looked up the NCAA Team Defensive stats and did not see Alabama in the top 10. They're 49th!! (see below) This Ole Miss offense is for real and they will score. Ta'Mu (sp? and QB for Miss) is no joke. Ole Miss 1st Half ML is my play and I think I'm putting some of my lunch money down on the FG spread and have some fun watching this game. Southern Illinois is the 4th rated offense in FCS averaging well over 500ypg. Considering the possibility of a letdown after whipping TTech the previous week (and having the greatest dynasty on tap the next week) I can ease my mind and forgive the Rebel D somewhat for the 1st half performance last week. What a sandwich game for them. They did shut them down 2nd half. Everybody looks at this and gives Ole Miss no chance but stats don't lie. This is not the same Bama D we've seen the past several years and this game gonna be different. Stand by!!!

View attachment 34524
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LOL .....80% consensus laying 3 TDs on the road in an SEC game when the home teams offense ranks 10 spots higher than their opponent. :popcorn:


bama1.jpg

bama2.jpg
 
Doubt we see games in North Carolina and Virginia get played due to this storm forecast. I was really liking Ohio and Wake Forest too.
 
JRock - FWIW... I have studied the SEC and Bama for a long, long time and watched every Bama game for close to 30 years. I have watched a lot of heart break at Vaught Hemingway as well and factor that in. Bama fan I am but I rarely bet the Tide for a lot of reasons, mostly the heart attack meter. I believe stats are very skewed and will "normalize" going forward. Some thoughts:

1. Bama scheduling. They are calling off the dogs in the 3rd quarter. Bama could have shut out Ark St and hung 100. In the Louisville game, they were playing backups for almost half of the game. Granted the freshman are getting reps in the secondary, but....

2. Ole Miss scheduling. Southern Illinois hung 41 on them and was virtually all 1st half points. This works against your argument heavily. le Miss beat up a very weak TT team that will struggle to win 6 games and was a big game for me in week 1.

3. Offensive efficiency. Ole Miss is def. better than last year, which Bama crushed 66-3 and only scored 7 in the 4th qtr. What is scary about this, is that with Tua throwing the rock, our offense is the most efficient I have ever seen and stats back that up.

4. Defensive stats - again, IMO heavily skewed due to opponents, scores and gameplans, allowing Bama to play with deeper rotations and get reps. Ole Miss d.... um, yeah.

I look at the Louisville game as a closer approximation as to what the final outcome will be. Perhaps Ole Miss scores 21 or even 28 (IMO unlikely), but regardless of stats through 2 games in which Bama played an FCS team, this is an entirely different animal. Bama's O-Line and offense is the best I have ever seen by a long shot, and this sure as hell ain't the "Landshark D" of years past at Ole Miss. Not to mention, Freeze is gone and was an offensive mastermind who is most likely offering advice to Bama even though he couldn't take the "advisor" gig.
Generally, I view this as tough spot for Bama and would rarely lay the 20. Bama D of past years, NO. Elite Bama O and enough talent on D to slow Ole Miss, YES. Bama won't be looking ahead to TAMU as this is SEC time. Line play will be huge and Bama will expose Ole Miss. My prediction - Bama 56-21.
 
deaconbreeze said:
JRock - FWIW... I have studied the SEC and Bama for a long, long time and watched every Bama game for close to 30 years. I have watched a lot of heart break at Vaught Hemingway as well and factor that in. Bama fan I am but I rarely bet the Tide for a lot of reasons, mostly the heart attack meter. I believe stats are very skewed and will "normalize" going forward. Some thoughts:

1. Bama scheduling. They are calling off the dogs in the 3rd quarter. Bama could have shut out Ark St and hung 100. In the Louisville game, they were playing backups for almost half of the game. Granted the freshman are getting reps in the secondary, but....

2. Ole Miss scheduling. Southern Illinois hung 41 on them and was virtually all 1st half points. This works against your argument heavily. le Miss beat up a very weak TT team that will struggle to win 6 games and was a big game for me in week 1.

3. Offensive efficiency. Ole Miss is def. better than last year, which Bama crushed 66-3 and only scored 7 in the 4th qtr. What is scary about this, is that with Tua throwing the rock, our offense is the most efficient I have ever seen and stats back that up.

4. Defensive stats - again, IMO heavily skewed due to opponents, scores and gameplans, allowing Bama to play with deeper rotations and get reps. Ole Miss d.... um, yeah.

I look at the Louisville game as a closer approximation as to what the final outcome will be. Perhaps Ole Miss scores 21 or even 28 (IMO unlikely), but regardless of stats through 2 games in which Bama played an FCS team, this is an entirely different animal. Bama's O-Line and offense is the best I have ever seen by a long shot, and this sure as hell ain't the "Landshark D" of years past at Ole Miss. Not to mention, Freeze is gone and was an offensive mastermind who is most likely offering advice to Bama even though he couldn't take the "advisor" gig.
Generally, I view this as tough spot for Bama and would rarely lay the 20. Bama D of past years, NO. Elite Bama O and enough talent on D to slow Ole Miss, YES. Bama won't be looking ahead to TAMU as this is SEC time. Line play will be huge and Bama will expose Ole Miss. My prediction - Bama 56-21.
Click to expand...

Great thoughts. You think 1H may be better play since Tua could come out at some point?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Great thoughts. You think 1H may be better play since Tua could come out at some point?
Click to expand...

Definitely a consideration with the chance back door. I think Ole Miss comes out hot and maybe catches Bama a bit off guard in Q1/2 but Bama rolls into the second half ahead and stretches it. Maybe Tua comes out in mid Q4. I just think it will be hard to stop either QB as Jalen is looking better as well.
 
Rhode Island +270 @ UConn: RI's QB ranks 8th in passing efficiency in FCS. Their total defense ranks 33rd. UConns QB ranks 100th in passing efficiency. Their total defense is dead last in FBS although a lot of that can be attributed to playing UCF and Boise to start the season. Whoever made their schedule sure didn't do them any favors. Still, I think RI is worth a shot here.

Others I'd add to my parlay if I had to play it today.

Duke +195
Troy +350
Toledo +290
Ole Miss 1st Half ML
MTSU 1st Qtr ML

:popcorn:
 
Duke is an interesting one. We know Jones and Gilbert are out and we have a 3rd year backup with 15 career attempts in Quentin Harris.

The reason I could still potentially like Duke is a Baylor D fade. I do not think that Baylor's D is very good...at all, and it has been masked by playing Abelene Christian and UTSA, but really even those teams have shown some cause for concern. I would figure that Duke can run and perhaps have a big day running, but that is going to depend on atleast some threat of a pass out of Harris. I wouldn't count out Cutcliffe from putting together a winning game plan. I think I could handle that risk with Duke.

The tougher part will be stopping Baylor. Brewer had a really nice game last week and assuming he can play at that level, or comparable to his play in 2017, Baylor is really going to stress some very young CBs for Duke now with their best CB out. Their top 4 CBs are rFr and Sophs. Plenty capable WRs for Baylor. That is what concerns me. Still, looking at it in total, Duke does have a pretty good D, and Gilbert is a key piece, but he is just one guy, so do I really have that big of an opinion change going down just one CB when Duke was going to have young CBs on the field regardless.

I might take a chance on the plus pts, especially if I can get 7 or more (see 6.5 right now). An upset really would not surprise me given Cutcliffe and the Baylor D, but trying to play it out in my head I just don't know right now.
 
Before the season started BillC had wake PR 6 higher for this game, now they are 5 pt dog to team that beat humans and holy cross. First bet for me wake ml
 
johnnyis Paul Johnson in trouble? This is one of their three best remaining matchups all year, though the Duke QB injury changes that from an easy duke to win bet to who knows. If they drop this thing it is unlikely they make a bowl.

Clemson next week (clemson playing against option this week)
Bowling Green yay
At Ville tough
vs Duke (best coach at defending option in the nation, along with Rocky Long)
at VT tough
at UNC ok but who knows if UNC is better by then with players back
vs Miami not easy
vs uva ok
at Georgia unlikely

If they don't bowl this year, he has to be in hot water and deservedly so.
 
Also you mentioned last week that your concern was the DB's but Pitt doesn't seem to be the threat USF is for their secondary. 6.5 yards per play last year for GT.

602 yards in defeat last week in a game they should have won obviously but no reason to think Pitt stops them a lot.


Is this a GT has quit play on Pitt?
 
It seems like lots of peep on GT, Marshall has toe issue. I'm sure last weeks final results are weighing on line. Its ez to play it now and live in game if I need to hedge. We will see.
 
RetroVK said:
Also you mentioned last week that your concern was the DB's but Pitt doesn't seem to be the threat USF is for their secondary. 6.5 yards per play last year for GT.

602 yards in defeat last week in a game they should have won obviously but no reason to think Pitt stops them a lot.


Is this a GT has quit play on Pitt?
Click to expand...

GT has not quit. Just a tuff spot for mostly average team. Last week my db comment, should have been more broadly physical, athletic, fast team was scary. Last weeks game was weird 2 kick returns for TDs and late 4th qtr comeback by USF.

I think USF was better team last week, despite it all, bullish on them. I doubt rookie backup will have as much success against pitt if Marshall cant go with toe.

Last weeks game by Pitt was weird too with psu scoring 37 in 2nd half and 21 in 4th. Penn state only outgained them by 90 yards. Score is misleading for many reasons.

USF d was green if not athletic. Pitt D is more experienced and better than USF. They only gave up 390 last week.

Must win for Pitt, Bill C has them as 3+ fav in preseason. GT has done nothing to dramatically change that.

It's a long season but I like GT more as home dogs, after slow start. GT defense is getting better but weaker backend, lost top fresh for targeting.

Although I like Brad Stewart, the only player to get YAC are A backs like lynch on designed isolations. Tech can run, but they dont have Calvin or demaryius. I think offense has tuff time here.
 
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RetroVK said:
johnnyis Paul Johnson in trouble? This is one of their three best remaining matchups all year, though the Duke QB injury changes that from an easy duke to win bet to who knows. If they drop this thing it is unlikely they make a bowl.

Clemson next week (clemson playing against option this week)
Bowling Green yay
At Ville tough
vs Duke (best coach at defending option in the nation, along with Rocky Long)
at VT tough
at UNC ok but who knows if UNC is better by then with players back
vs Miami not easy
vs uva ok
at Georgia unlikely

If they don't bowl this year, he has to be in hot water and deservedly so.
Click to expand...

My nephew at UGA texted me same thing. He might be, but they wont get anybody better. Nate Woody, tremendous hire.

Right now I can see them beating BG, Duke, Ville, UNC, UVA, Miami, but will prolly lose 2 of those. Remember RSW was 5.5/juiced.

Pitt is kind of in same deal. Schedule is a bear, must win for Narduzzi and his big10 /12 staff
 
One of GT best games of last year in their ACC opener.. Kirvonte ran for 200. He is out for year. Last years 35-17 tech win would motivate me if I was Pitt, cause they were owned and being this is their ACC home opener.
 
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Three I am on this week are:

Texas State +306
Ball State +476
Central Michigan +447

I have spread plays on all three as well and am putting 1/3 unit on each ML using the
1-2 = profit theory.
 
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