Week 3 DFS/Props Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Not sure the interest on the first part (DFS), but trying to succeed in that area definitely correlates positively to props as well.

I am assuming most, that can, partake in at least a lineup or two on Sundays in DFS.

Will try to keep this updated/going as much as I can, but I may suck some weeks or sunday mornings with it.

Love the idea/strategy needed to be taken for Showdown (primetime slates) vs Milly makers (gpps) vs cash (H2H/5050s). ---- whether it's ownership, correlating players, finding the gems, etc.

I obviously take it game to game but will try to start tonight/tomorrow with just the thursday showdown slate and go from there. I primarily play DFS on draftkings now, so full ppr/captain salaries/other player salary differences too.

CAR@HOU

I'll have more tomorrow on roster construction, but overall and individually;

Carolina is just outside the bottom 8 for sec/play in total, and in neutral situations (I believe this is 1 score games), Houston is 8th/9th in those categories respectively, but this was with tyrod at the helm. The unknown here is how will mills perform, the known, is that they can't be expected to play at the same tempo as the first 2 weeks with a backup qb and a short week. The biggest discrepancy in terms of dline vs oline is houston should have a tough time getting to darnold as they - houstons defensive sack rate, vs carolinas sack rate protection - are on the opposite ends of the 32.

While I like Moore, and may take his reception props as he leads the team in targets considerably (19 through 2 weeks, their wr2/3 each have 9 total), I think Sam will have time in the pocket tomorrow. Which brings me to Anderson. He leads the team in air yards (despite 10 less targets than moore), and his average depth per target is 23.42 yards through 2 weeks. I foresee a deep shot connection or two.

More later.

Feel free to post thoughts/plays/and even questions! I will too.
 
i love playing dfs, that actually interest me more than props but they pretty much go hand and hand so glad you doing the thread and including both!!

lot of weeks i start lineups that include the thursday night game just so going up against a bunch of lineups that tend to go overboard with players in this game.. guess they just like seeing themselves atop the leader board after thu night despite the fact they will ultimately be walked down and passed come sunday!! so i do like fading the thu night game often! that said im keying panthers defense to start these lineups, relatively cheap price sitting at 9th most expensive on DK, 1k cheaper than broncos defense which is the most expensive this week (for obviously good reason). this defense looks to be really solid, the front 4 is getting all kinds of pressure with minimal blitzing thus far, they seem to have a bunch of speed with kids flying all over the field!! i think davis mills in for a really long night! didnt think he was all that good in college now he getting thrown to the NFL wolves on a short week, good luck kid!!!

i thought about Moore but i do think you onto something with this potentially being the week robby anderson blows the top off a defense for a couple big plays!! he also 200 cheaper than moore this week :) Moore's target share thru the 1st couple weeks is pretty tough to ignore but hopefully he starts garnering more attention from the d. McCaffery is the most expensive rb for the week, his impact in the passing game makes him pretty much worth it if we can find cheap players in other spots.. the scary thought about passing on him is the thing i mentioned above, being the thu night game he will be in more lineups than even usual i think.. i could make the case going with cook instead at 600 cheaper a good play but his ankle injury is a concern, Henry had 6 catches for another 55 yards vs seattle! not sure i ever recall henry being so involved in the passing game? bodes really well for cook if he healthy!!! just not sure it a good idea to fade McCaffery a week ya know he be in a crazy high amount of lineups??!!? Imo the only other spot worth considering for tonight would be te, as i said if we go with McCaffery we need cheap options in other spots, Arnold caught 3 of his 4 targets last week for 55 yards, browns te's had a field day vs houston with 11 catches for 107 yards last week. in week 1 jags te O'Shaughnessy had 6 catches for 48 yards, think it fair to say covering the te is a problem spot for the texans!!
 
If you think CMC's ownership will be overloaded because of people playing thursday players at a higher clip in week long slates, then I would fade. But I don't typically do those. I stick to showdown/main slates.

For showdown purposes.

In GPP's, with this type of game spread, o/u. The highest leverage lineups are 4-2 to the winning team (so 4 carolina - 2 houston players --- play it the other way at your own risk). The highest leverage captains are WR2/DST1/WR1 in that order. Which I love to see, as I will be targeting anderson (moore a bit too). RB1 is a wash, and can be considered, I would not touch anyone else at captain then those 3 to 4 positions.
 
There are two season-long, per game props tI saw before the start of the season, I've played neither, but so far they're 2-0 and 1-1, I believe.

Russell Wilson over on his longest completion of the game (my feeling is this is probably good until winter hits, then something to reevaluate).

The under on points from SF's kicker at anything higher than 8.

Just sharing in case it might help.
 
Joe Public said:
There are two season-long, per game props tI saw before the start of the season, I've played neither, but so far they're 2-0 and 1-1, I believe.

Russell Wilson over on his longest completion of the game (my feeling is this is probably good until winter hits, then something to reevaluate).

The under on points from SF's kicker at anything higher than 8.

Just sharing in case it might help.
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wilson over longest completion certainly makes a lot of sense,, he throws such a pretty deep ball and has the guys to go get it!!
 
Don't see props out yet on DKings but playing this on FD

R. Anderson 40+ Yards -144 2.88-2
R. Anderson 60+ Yards +182 .5-.91
R. Anderson 70+ Yards +270 .5-1.35
R. Anderson Anytime TD Scorer +200 .5-1 (should probably take 1st half +430 but to late)
 
Danny dimes not exactly my favorite qb but he is super cheap on DK this week, he has scored 22 and 29 vs way better defenses than he gonna see this sunday!! falcons defense seems terrible,, dont think they have the front 4 to even take adv of gmen poor oline play.. jones gets a lot of points with his legs which ya gotta love out the qb position (for fantasy),, dont think he gets the respect in that regard as like a kyler murray, russ wilson, lamar, he might not be those guys but his rushing production has been better than the ones not named lamar!! his 5800 price tag puts him as the 18th qb, i think he will easily out perform that and could easily be a top 3-4 scoring qb this week!!
 
ScopeY said:
Don't see props out yet on DKings but playing this on FD

R. Anderson 40+ Yards -144 2.88-2
R. Anderson 60+ Yards +182 .5-.91
R. Anderson 70+ Yards +270 .5-1.35
R. Anderson Anytime TD Scorer +200 .5-1 (should probably take 1st half +430 but to late)
Click to expand...

convinced me im going with anderson instead of moore in dfs lineups..
 
ScopeY said:
Is it cash or gpp?
Click to expand...

all i really play is gpp.. those are the tourny's correct? as i said above i typically like to fade the thu night game but since im going with panthers defense thinking about a few lineups using a panthers stack of some sorts.. i do like arnold at te, of course the problem being and why i typically fade this game is i think players tend to get overused in this game..
 
2daBank said:
all i really play is gpp.. those are the tourny's correct? as i said above i typically like to fade the thu night game but since im going with panthers defense thinking about a few lineups using a panthers stack of some sorts.. i do like arnold at te, of course the problem being and why i typically fade this game is i think players tend to get overused in this game..
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Ok then yeah... I haven't got into the Sunday slates, but Anderson should be the lower owned slate breaker you want in GPPs, over Moore who is the safer floor (and still good full ppr option)
 
Arnold saw his snaps drop from 52% week 1 to 29% week 2 ---- I don't think because of injury. Ian Thomas went from 55% to 68%, and is dirt cheap on the showdown slate.... could be a smarter pivot/option
 
wish i knew which damn niners rb was healthy enough to get most the work sunday night?!!???!!???? i odnt much care who it is, they all pretty cheap and i have no doubt whomever gets the carries will gash the packers. as of now eli mitchell hasnt practiced but he did come back into game last week with the shoulder injury,, it kinda sounds like if trey sermon can pass concussion protocol he the healthiest of the bunch!!! they say mri came back as mitchell shoulder being "worse than a stinger" whatever the fuck that means? lol
 
2daBank said:
wish i knew which damn niners rb was healthy enough to get most the work sunday night?!!???!!???? i odnt much care who it is, they all pretty cheap and i have no doubt whomever gets the carries will gash the packers. as of now eli mitchell hasnt practiced but he did come back into game last week with the shoulder injury,, it kinda sounds like if trey sermon can pass concussion protocol he the healthiest of the bunch!!! they say mri came back as mitchell shoulder being "worse than a stinger" whatever the fuck that means? lol
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Can't disagree, I believe they have the 3rd best line yard matchup of the week (SFO OL vs GBP DL). So space should be created. Only negative I see at first glance is that this is the 2nd slowest pace game of the week.
 
ScopeY said:
Arnold saw his snaps drop from 52% week 1 to 29% week 2 ---- I don't think because of injury. Ian Thomas went from 55% to 68%, and is dirt cheap on the showdown slate.... could be a smarter pivot/option
Click to expand...

interesting,, i didnt notice his snaps dropped so much cause he had 4 targets and 3 catches in 1st half,, you think maybe it was cause the lead panthers had and playing second half more conservatively?? i know id like to get one their te's in there as texans have really struggled defending them.. never even heard the jags te and he had a really nice game in week 1 (obvioulsy jags were throwing a bunch from behind), the browns te's combined for a big day last week,..
 
2daBank said:
interesting,, i didnt notice his snaps dropped so much cause he had 4 targets and 3 catches in 1st half,, you think maybe it was cause the lead panthers had and playing second half more conservatively?? i know id like to get one their te's in there as texans have really struggled defending them.. never even heard the jags te and he had a really nice game in week 1 (obvioulsy jags were throwing a bunch from behind), the browns te's combined for a big day last week,..
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could be... all 4 of his targets came in the first half. Thomas Had 2 in the first half. But still, do you think the game script tonight will lead to the same outcome (a panthers lead?)

But this isn't advocating them to be played on week long slates. I'm merely showing the pro's/con's to both, especially for showdown slate
 
ScopeY said:
could be... all 4 of his targets came in the first half. Thomas Had 2 in the first half. But still, do you think the game script tonight will lead to the same outcome (a panthers lead?)

But this isn't advocating them to be played on week long slates. I'm merely showing the pro's/con's to both, especially for showdown slate
Click to expand...

right on, i appreciate.. i dunno if ill do any showdowns just with tonight game, so far have just started a few tourney that go from tonight thru monday night.. far as game script yea i would expect something similar as i dont think mills has much chance for success so prob be another game panthers out to the early lead and dont throw much in second half so arnold will have to get his points early on if he going to. sounds as if they like thomas way more as the blocking te for the run game, not sure i would trust him to be fantasy relevant in anything but a showdown type game..
 
Super quick comments on Houston before I have to head out.... In a showdown slate you have to play someone from the team. I anticipate them playing from behind. The RB situation is a crapshoot for fantasy purposes, but it looks like Ingram is the main guy. He outcarried DJ and Lindsay combined (14 ingram, 6dj,5pl -- this was even furhter gapped in a game they had a lead (week 1), but we don't foresee that here. Even when it comes to being targeted, nobody is separating the pack. DJ and Ingram both led with 2 last week.

The one thing I liked with what I saw, Mills came in 2nd half, and had an average depth of target of 12.11 ------ in 1.5 games, Tyrod was 7.27 ---- so this guy looks like he isn't scared of taking shots downfield, and he may have too if the game goes as vegas predicts. He targetted cooks 9 times in that half. He may be a shoe-in for showdown slates, with a tiny mix of mills/roberts --- 1 of the te's (I think I prefer akins), and maybe Ingram still.

Again I'd keep it to 4-2
 
ScopeY said:
If you think CMC's ownership will be overloaded because of people playing thursday players at a higher clip in week long slates, then I would fade. But I don't typically do those. I stick to showdown/main slates.
Click to expand...

i def have noticed the tourneys that go thu thru mon we tend to see a way higher ownership rate on thu night players than on average.. as i was saying that why i often play in these just to fade the crazy amount of lineups that appear to stack the thu game.. no clue why ppl do it other than liking to see themselves on top the leader board even tho it typically short lived.. little scarier fading mccaffery but it prob is the right move,, my main goal for this game is having panthers defense and maybe a little robby anderson as i think he has a good chance to outscore his price tag,, fading mccaffery would allow me to get a way better te than worrying bout arnold,, lol
 
Good call fading Mccaffery. Lot of lineups be screwed with him going out. Hard to make up paying that price and not getting much of any scoring
 
B.A.R. said:
Sorry man, think I put the jinx on this...

finally got that first target late in the 1h
Click to expand...
All good! They'll be more. But it's not over yet... still a close game, he's been open deep atleast once. The drop was bad, and he had a short catch called back due to accepted penalty.

But still have hope
 
ScopeY said:
All good! They'll be more. But it's not over yet... still a close game, he's been open deep atleast once. The drop was bad, and he had a short catch called back due to accepted penalty.

But still have hope
Click to expand...

Just need the line to give darnold the time to chuck it. Good thing bout Robby is you only need 1 to cash all the yardage props!
 
Winning lineups in one of the 20 max entries. My best was 97.81 had Moore (CPT) - Darnold/Cooks - Marshall - Anderson/Roberts womp and womp. Playing both qbs with their wr1's. They were then able to grab 1 of the random "backup" wr's that were all cheap (miller/roberts/conley). I'm sure this guy had another lineup that rotated hubbard/gonzalez/marshall. 3-3 stack won it --- ended up being a closer game for most of it.

1632491740770.png



All in all, houston really didn't look terrible... I still wish they gave more confidence in letting mills do it! His 2 minute drive was great, played pretty mistake free too. While I missed on Anderson, moore comments and cooks comments were right on course.

Onto Sunday
 
Quick comments. I'll try to get more late tonight or tomorrow morning.

WAS/BUF

-Everyone will see the O/U, the big spread, and the 15-20mph winds/gusts up to 30, backup qb on one side, another that some want to say has regressed and avoid this all together.
-I think this presents a great opportunity to buy low on buffalo from an ownership %, this matchup is at the top in terms of pace of play (anotehr positive).
I will be on beasley receptions, and will have a stack or two with allen/diggs.
- From washington standpoint, you have to take mclaurin (who proved it vs bradberry that he can perform in alpha vs alpha matches), and/or logan thomas. Both have played on 100% of snaps through both weeks. I'd avoid gibson in a game they're supposed to be trailing, and buffalo has done a great job containing pass catchers out of the backfield, I don't think mckissic is worth it.

CHI/CLV

-This is supposed to be the slowest pace of play game of the week. We already know Cleveland is run first, lets make baker to less, and with no landry and OBJ maybe not fully healthy, I don't think this changes. I'd have a share or two of chubb/hunt, but thats most likely it for me and will be underweight. ---- no CLV WR had more than 2 targets last week.
-Now I want to completely avoid fields... buttttt he may be low owned, he can get points with his legs, he is in a good matchup on paper, he's dirt cheap. My gut says don't dooo it. But I may play 1 or 2 with him. I'd rather pair him with mooney/kmet, but A-rob is always a big redzone threat. Still debating.


BAL/DET

-This is kind of where I have a problem rostering fields in a slow pace game. We could get Goff, at the same price, in a game with a higher o/u, where he's established himself with an early sample size of 47.5 pass attempts a game. That's huge, and you can argue that number going up if it wasn't for misfortunes in the 2nd half of that GBP game last week. Pairing him with hockenson is easy, and the guy is getting 10.5 targets a game. Hellllo. I do like Cephus though, as baltimore has needed to blitz to create pressure so far, that can lead to an over the top td or two, and they should be needing humphrey to help with hock. That leaves corners that may not be capable of defending this guy who's looked bright so far. If you want to take swift or jamal, go ahead, but i'll probably avoid (this was made without seeing salary ranges of others)
- Now what the heck do we do with lamar? He can easily be the qb1 on any week. I like that Det will be able to generate pressure (I ironically like to see lamar scrambling for fantasy purposes), and he is finally targetting his wr's again over mark andrews. All will be on hollywood brown and his cheap pricetag, I don't know if I can pass that up either, but don't be afraid to pivot to watkins either as a lower owned option. Their aDOT is practically equal through 2 weeks. Pass on andrews, he's not getting deep targets at all, and will need 2 tds to get you what you want. As much as I want to believe in Ty'son, and so do a couple of my fantasy teams, he is capped to around 50% snaps, and has lost redzone looks to murray. This is on top of the dual threat of lamar running it in. I can't be comfortable with rostering one of the backs even though its a plus matchup.

IND/TEN

-Saw a tweet about henry in the titans last 6 wins, 34.1 FPG, and in the last 6 losses, 11.2 FFP. They're favorites, and the script should mean he will be eating. While he's overpriced, the big issue is that if last week happens again... you can't win without him. He has to make some of your rosters as he is one of the true slate breakers left in fantasy. One other note, this is uncharacteristic... but he has started the year with 5 targets per game, which is an incredible boost for him on full ppr sites/leagues. No other player outside of tanny - julio or brown should be considered. There aDOT's are nice enough to not forget about them but its tough to pick and pray you choose the right one. I think I'm going to fade, as colts are expected to generate pressure on pass plays as well.
-What the heck do we do with the colts. We need to wait to see if Wentz is playing as well as the health of the rest of the team, lmao. I'm disappointed in the week 2 drop in RB targets, Now, week 2 was a closer game for longer than week 1, but still. Also Taylor and Hines saw a drop in snaps with Mack back, I'm rooting for taylor, he has a good line matchup, but I think I have to avoid. An argument can be made for doyle, but no thanks. Pittman is the only guy I'd play if you're looking for a gamestack with Henry ---- or tanny/WR. The guy sees targets, and at a good depth, the game script only helps.
 
KCC/LAC

One of the first game stacks of the week most will be attacking and for good reason. The game is in the middle of the pack in terms of pace.
-Herbert shouldn't see much pressure, and ekeler is in a positive line push matchup. The great thing about Ekeler, is he fits into both gamescript (with a lead or playing from behind, and of course neutral), he will make my lineups. It's hard not to have some herbert and its easy to pair him, as the offense funnels through 2 wide outs - allen and williams. I prefer allen but I won't talk you off williams if you prefer that. Cook is a fine option, but I'll pass, and I wouldn't chase guyton, he played the same snaps as williams last week and was out targetted 10 to 2. ---- I may play chargers.
-Mahomes has averaged over 30pts a game and it feels like he hasn't done much. If you want to play him, go ahead. The best part of the offense for DFS is that it's concentrated. Hill and kelce combine for over 50% of the target share, and air yards. I think I'm taking a stand, gulp, away from kelce. He will be seeing a lot of derwin james, is the highest priced TE (for good reason), but I'd rather pay down......even hock is 3k cheaper. Damn, idk if anyone can give me validation here, but seeing derwin could actually be shading to hill more than kelce. Need to look further into that. Too Helaire....... he's almost laughably cheap on draftkings, and I'm not sure how much I'm playing him, but I almost have to take him here, I just hope they also target him in the passing game.

From a betting perspective, I may take chargers, but I'll be on Ekeler Rush&Rec Props.

NEP/NOS

I'll be short and sweet here. The defenses are better than the offenses here. You can talk someone into playing kamara at severely low ownership, but I'll pass after that stinker last week. The only interest I have here is NEP Defense as this is still famous jamies, I'll play them where I can and may mini stack it with a damien harris as it wouldn't shock me to see 2+ tds from him and it should be at ownership <10%, maybe even <5%.

ATL/NYG

-I see value in Jones at 5.6K played a defense that has allowed the most fpg to qbs. He can get it done on his legs too. Having said that, the 2 atlanta corners really are not bad, its the pass rush thats generating next to 0 that's the issue, you can't cover forever. The one nuance, or saving grace, is that Giants Oline will be out their center and guard, and were they even that good prior? I still think I'd rather go Goff or a shot at Fields at a bit lower of a price point. Idk if you can fade the giants offense entirely, golladay can be a deep threat, shep is consistent, and barkley has actually played on 80%+ of snaps last week.
-I obviously don't care for mr. statue of ice (matty ice) he needs 300+ 3tds+ to get close to winning a GPP for you, and I'd rather go elsewhere. We saw Mclaurin handle bradberry, I'm sure ridley can too.... I'm very interested in pitts, but I like the other guys around him too, so I don't know if I'll fit him in much. Mike davis saw his snaps drop from week 1 to 2, and patterson stayed at 33%, yet patterson had almost as many touches (rush & rec) and out gained him. I know someone will so well on atlanta, but I don't want to dart here. I do feel uncomfortable being underweight this matchup as a whole, but I need to take a stand somewhere
 
1PM Props

Chark O3.5 Receptions -165 1.65-1
Beasley O4.5 Receptions -105 1.05-1
Ekeler O99.5 Rush&Rec Yds -115 1.15-1
Cephus O44.5 Rec Yds -115 2.3-2
D. Harris O15.5 Rush Attempts -120 1.2-1

There are others I like, just targeting 1 per game for now

1PM Sides

LA Chargers +7 -110 2.2-2
NOS/NEP U43 -110 1.1-1
 
4PM Props

C. Sutton O64.5 -115 1.15-1
K. Drake O63.5 -120 2.4-2

4PM Sides

LV Raiders -3.5 -110 2.2-2


Debating Carson props. Gl all
 
Fyi for tonights showdown slate.

The ONLY leveraged lineup in this game scenario is actually a 2-4 stack (2 players from winning team, 4 players from losing team). and the ONLY positive leverage captain spot is the WR1 --- Deebo or Davante.

If you think packers win.

Davante Cpt. - Rodgers, 4 9ers. Could try and be cheeky with a Davante - jones or dillon but idk about that.

or

Deebo Cpt. - Garop. Could try and be cheeky with Deebo - Sermon. and of course 4 packers.
 
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