Week #2

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Wrote this in my week one thread, sometime in late August. Week one results kinda messed some things up in terms of what I was looking at, but these were some of the sides I was interested in as the lines came out earlier today. Posted plays as they happened in the week two discussion thread, and will get them posted here soon.

- Very interested in Bama @ Texas. Statement game, not a believer in any Texas hype, and will take anything under 14 points immediately.
- SJST @ Aubbie. Could be a look ahead to the Penn St rematch. If I see a +24 or better though, I'll take a shot.
- Tenny @ Pitt. Revenge spot, as Vol turnovers cost them LY. Would love to catch 4 or more.
- Tucky @ Florida. Depends on week one, of course. Kentucky has the ATS #s lately, but there's revenge on table. Could the Gators be a slight hm dog? I'll be on them if so, or if basically a pick em.
- Ville @ UCF. Also depends on week one, but leaning towards UCF at home if less than a FG.
- Baylor @ BYU. Looking at the Mormons, and hoping for less than a FG.
- ASU @ Okie Lite. Lean Cowboys at anything below a TD.
- USC @ Stanford. Stanford has the ATS #s lately, but lean USC. Their 1st test, which they must meet. Will take them at anything below a TD.
- Oregon St @ Fresno. lean Fresno St at less than a FG.
- NIU, if a road dog at Tulsa
- Wisky, if less than two TDs hosting Wazzou

BM was down when making most of my plays earlier today, so used mostly BOL.

Bama was sitting at -20 to -21 by the time I saw it. Was really hoping for less, as I feel we're paying a premium for anything over two TDs. That said, when BM was finally back online for me, I saw Bama at -18.5 and took it.

Aubbie/SJST is sitting around 21.5 to 22.5, and it's just not enticing enough for me to take a flyer. Tbh, I'd need a lot more to even consider.

Was really hoping to catch Tenny as a dog at Pitt, but they were -5 when I first saw them and have climbed to -6.5 since. Too much. I coulda laid a FG, but no more.

Was really hoping to catch Florida as a dog too, which wasn't gonna happen. Tucky is a solid team, and owns the ATS numbers. By the time I saw this line, the Gators were favored by 6 pts. It's since come down to 4.5 to 5.5, but that's still too much.

Louisville had such a horrible week one, that UCF was at 6 pts by the time I saw it. It's rising at some places too. Was hoping for a FG, but I did finally take UCF -6 just a bit ago.

Was hoping to see BYU at under a FG, which it is now, but when I saw -3 I took it. Was the 2nd game I played earlier today.

Okie Lite has been between 10 and 11 all day, but I wanted less than a TD.

When I first saw USC today they were -10.5 pts at Stanford, who owns the ATS history against them lately. It's between 8/5 and 10 now, but it's still too much thanks to week one.

Fresno was a pick em when I first saw it, so I jumped on that as my first play of the day. The Beavs had an excellent week one, but road openers aren't their spot. These games are made for Fresno.

NIU was a 6 @ -115 when I saw it. This one is the only early play that I regret. It's at 6.5, and could climb to a flat 7 soon. Not in love with this side like I am most others, but had too quick of a trigger finger this afternoon.

Was hoping to see Wisky at 14 or less too, and first saw them at -17.5 pts. Think their defense will completely hold down Wazzou, so jumped when I saw a flat 17. Had I waited for BM, I could've got a point better though.

Anyhow, this was my starting point today. Should have exercised a bit more patience, but it is what it is. I'm typically never around on Sundays as the lines come out. At least I'm on the sides I had initially targeted. Unfortunately, just a lot of (hoped for) value was lost due to week one results. Back to work though. Still tons of work left to do with this new week, as I hope to rebound from a lackluster week one.
 
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Week 2:

UCF (-6) for 1

Fresno St (pk) for 1
BYU (-3) for 1
NIU (+6) @ -115 for 1
Wisconsin (-17) for 1
Alabama (-18.5) for 1



The Saturday games were all posted as I played them in the week two discussion thread. I added the Friday nite game this evening.

I never played it in week one, but I really liked Ville at Syracuse. That was a mistake, right? Short week to play a much better team in UCF though. Two in a row on the road, then they get FSU after that if I remember right. Tough ass 3 games to start a season, so had this spot targeted. Woulda loved it at a FG or less, but had to take it below a TD. Anyhow, will come back to these games later...and/or as needed. Just getting them posted for now.
 
Best of luck this week man. I saw UCF at 3 and thought about it but then got called away and when I came back it had jumped to 6 so I passed on it but still think it is decent at 6.5 or less.

Agree with you in the value statements as I don’t love my Bama 18.5 but like it better than 20 or 21. Same goes for Wisky as I was hoping for 13.5.
 
Best of luck this week man. I saw UCF at 3 and thought about it but then got called away and when I came back it had jumped to 6 so I passed on it but still think it is decent at 6.5 or less.

Agree with you in the value statements as I don’t love my Bama 18.5 but like it better than 20 or 21. Same goes for Wisky as I was hoping for 13.5.

yep, i hear ya CB. was hoping for better numbers across the board, but what can you do...

i'm really fighting myself with both Tenny and Florida too. no value on either games with those lines, but i love both spots so much that i'll prolly end up going against my PR#s/etc and find a way to back them in some way. i'm not disciplined enough, lol.
 
just realized i haven't been on since Sunday. week zero/one ended better than it started with FSU and Clemson wins. almost got back to the mendoza line (7-8-3, -1.67), but shot myself in the foot by adding the tOSU TT as well as hedging a bit on LSU at the half (as those two are what i'm down).
anyhow, have a few additions to post for this week.

Boise St (-17) for 1/2

USC/Stanford under 67.5 for 1
ASU/Okla St over 58 for 1



couldn't resist the boise st action play. was on them last week when the beavs smacked them in the mouth right outta the gate. the boise qb was just awful. that said, if this game were a week ago, my #s would have had this between 24 and 26 points. boise is comfortable against nm, home or away, and i expect a rebound. they aren't as bad as they looked last week, and i think there might be some value in the reaction to week one results. anyhow, just a small action play, so we shall see what the broncos are made of...

would've been on the trojans at a TD or less. stanford typically plays them tight at home, and holds the ATS numbers. usc won't get as many gift pts as they received last week, but this is a game that they have to win. just see more value on the under here.

would've been on the cowboys at a TD or less too. asu solid, but very inexperienced. cmu sure moved the ball on okie light though, so see more value with the over. spread is just too many points, and might be ripe for a back door.
 
Ok, here's my Week #3 look ahead:

Miami @ A&M - Wow, could this be the game of the day? Not sure which way I lean just yet.
Penn St @ Auburn - Revenge. Home dog? Gotta see Aubbie play first.
Messy St @ LSU - Leach vs Kelly!!! LSU has the trends, but hm team has lost L3. Kinda lean Leach early.
Georgia @ Scary - UGA big.
Mich St @ Wash - Interesting match up, and not sure yet. High scoring?
Oklahoma @ Nebby - Sooners big.
Purdue @ Syracuse
Texas Tech @ NCST
FSU @ Louisville - UL and hm team had ATS trends. FSU off a bye, and I'll be on them. Double revenge! Series takes a turn every 2 years, so it's due.
SDST @ Utah - Utes roll.
Fresno @ USC - Sandwich between Pac-12 rd games for USC. We all know Fresno's history vs the conference.
BYU @ Oregon - Mormons coming off Baylor. Gotta see that game first.
+
SMU @ Maryland - Over, right?
Pitt @ WMU - Revenge.


:tiphat:
 
some more...

Florida (-6) for 1/2
Just an action play because I love the spot for the Gators. Kentucky is very solid, and the line should be a FG or less. Gonna be a great game.

Pitt (+12) to Tenn/Pitt ov59 for 1 to win 1
As discussed, I loved this spot for Tenny as well. Revenge, and they should air it out. That said, 6 is too many points. Last week at this time I was hoping to see the Vols as a slight dog. Wasn't going to happen after week one results. Anyhow, rather than tease Tenny down I flipped sides. Still think Tenny wins a close game. Just think there's more opportunity to teasing Pitt higher here, just in case it's a FG game either way. Obviously like the over here too, but love it teased down below 60.

A&M (-10) to USC (+1) to MSU (-1.5) for 1 to win 1
Appy St has a ton of heart, but this is a huge step up in class from UNC...who they couldn't stop. Already mentioned how I think this is an early must win for the Trojans. Just wanted them at a TD or less due to the history up at Stanford. Huge step up in class for Zona too, from dominating SDST to having to face Messy St. Mentioned in last week's thread that Zona should be expecting a whooping this week. Only thing keeping me off the side was how impressed I was with De Laura.


May have one or two more, but nothing much. If not, this will be the final card. Interesting week, and lots of lopsided games w/ huge lines. Looking ahead to week three again, and that's already got me more excited.

Lastly, not counting this one, but I also have a shits & giggles teaser fwiw: PSU (-13), Arkansas (+5), Maryland (-14), ECU (+.5), Oklahoma (-20.5), OK St (+2), & A&M (-6). There are usually silly little parlays that I don't post. But with this different kind of week (big favs), figured I'd share this silly little teaser too.
 
adding

live Louisville/UCF over 59.5 (-104) for 1/2

played this right after the Ville missed FG starting the 2nd q
 
^^ slow to post, as UCF is marching...but i'm not happy with their secondary after one Q. ville moving ball much easier than i anticipated.
 
well tonight sucked. what a crap game. defenses looked good because the offenses played so poorly. ucf with some horrible play calling, and way too many bad reads, that just killed them every time. ville made one early adjustment...to go after/blitz plumlee...and that was all they needed. no need to get into the rest of the game. they both played bad, and the knights were just worse.
boise is just not a good team offensively. time to make a change at qb, but they won't. still shoulda covered, but of course they had to give up the kick return. literally two big plays outta nm and it's yet another push.

anyhow moving on to saturday. one more play, as i needed a dog. he may not be surrounded by all that much, but at least i've got the better qb in this one. ;)

Virginia (+3.5) @ -108 for 1/2
 
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