Week 2 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It was a good start to the season in Week 1, a welcome change from the last couple of years. 7-2 was the final tally, so adding the Navy loss from week 0, the current mark sits at 7-3. I'm still kicking myself for not going full bore on Duke Monday night, though KJ inspired me to at least have a few bucks on the money line. Duke is a team that I thought people were discounting due to some perceived luck in their season last year. While I acknowledge that it's hard to duplicate the turnover fortune they had last year and the schedule ramps up, I didn't see the major regression many did for Duke. There's no way that a team that played as well as they did last year with as many major contributors they have returning was going to crash and burn, especially with a coach as good as Mike Elko appears to be. Now 1 week doesn't tell us everything, but I do expect the Blue Devils to have a good year. I remember looking at their ACC Championship odds(40/1 I believe) and thinking if they beat Clemson, they would have a strong chance to find a spot in the ACC title game. It was a good thought. Unfortunately I did nothing with it. In another thread, BAR pointed out Dabo's comment that Garrett Riley would be "coordinating the Clemson offense" or something to that effect. Had I known that, can you say "Unload"? Clemson....yikes.

As for Coach Prime(and I will not deviate from calling him his correct name), I think that performance was no fluke. That team looked well coached and disciplined. I know the impulse is to assume that he's just collecting talent and letting them thrive with their athleticism, but he's old school. He's almost the perfect balance of accountability and excitement. I don't know about you, but I get frustrated watching some of these teams play completely brain dead football, i.e., no concept of containment on the edge, out of control tacklers going 100 MPH and missing easy tackles in crucial spots, constant clutching and grabbing in pass coverage with no thought of looking for and/or making a play on the ball, etc. Colorado showed signs that Coach Prime teaches all of those things. Even on kick coverage, tacklers were cognizant of containment and forcing the ball carrier inside. On one play a Colorado DB(not Hunter) had needlessly grabbed a TCU receiver, but was luckily not called for interference on a 3rd down. While the rest of the sideline was celebrating the stop, the camera caught Prime racing over to that DB to make sure he knew he was lucky to get away with the grab. Stuff like that was evident all day, not to mention the brilliance of the top end talent of Hunter, young Sanders and Dylan Edwards. I'm going to be rooting for them. Also, as a PSA, I'll probably be on them until they fail to cover.

Kansas -3 WIN
Purdue +3 WIN
James Madison -6 LOSS
NC State +8 LOSS
Colorado -2.5 WIN
Troy +16 LOSS
Iowa State +4 LOSS
Tulane-----No Pratt so bought out
Appy State +19.5 WIN
FAU -3 LOSS
Texas Tech +6.5 LOSS One of many of those to come I'm sure
Rice +8 WIN
Washington State +5.5 WIN
Auburn -4.5 LOSS


6-7

1. @Kansas -3 v Illinois: (Friday)I saw that this just jumped to 3.5 in some spots, but I got it at 3 at Bet Rivers in my state. Not sure if that book is everywhere however. As you all probably remember, I'm an Illini alum, so I usually try to avoid being on their games, but this one is a horrendous matchup for Bielema and company. I should also point out that since BB came to Champaign, he's been money(6-2) as a road dog, but that's mostly in conference, as one of his road dog failures was at UVA in '21 making him 0-1 in the role in non-conference games. Both of those losses came in games like this one, first road game of the year. Also, if you're going to be playing on the road on a short week, the LAST team you want to play is Kansas, who runs one of the most unique schemes in the country. Illinois strength coming into the season was perceived to be it's physicality, and Kansas would seem to be a good mark for them in that case. However, that physicality didn't really show up last week against Toledo for the Illini. Toledo ran it very effectively against a front 7 that looked to be among the Big ten's best. Some of that might have had something to do with DaQuan Finn and their preoccupation with keeping him contained which cut down on their aggressiveness. That's going to be a similar issue with Jalon Daniels this week, and this time they'll be facing a QB who in addition to an ability to run also can throw it accurately, something Finn didn't so very well last week. As everyone knows, Illinois had 3 top 60 draft picks out of their secondary and another starter in an NFL camp, so they have a lot of inexperience back there. In addition, they are without S Matthew Bailey, who contributed a lot last year as a true freshmen but broke his foot in the offseason. The secondary held up well last week, but they'll get tested this week. Offensively, physicality was also an issue as they didn't run it well in traditional run situations. New OL starters Gesky and Josh Kruetz(Olin's kid) got beat pretty regularly most of the game, so Toledo forced Luke Altmeyer to have to beat them through the air. Luckily for Illinois, Altmeyer played very well, but I'm not convinced that Illinois is going to run it al will the way a lot of teams did on Kansas last year. First, the Jayhawks upgraded their talent up front, and they return 9 of their top 11 tacklers. I realize those guys were bad last year, but Leipold and his staff are so solid that anyone exposed to that much time to their scheme and coaching is bound to improve. Virtually all of Kansas's offensive production is back from an elite offense last year, so even if Illinois plays as well as they are capable, which is very good, they might be looking at needing 35 to get this one. Altmeyer looks solid, so far, but it's not in Illinois pedigree to be able to outscore teams. Illinois also has Penn State coming in next week, so they might be peeking ahead at that one, and I'm sure some prep time has been expended in that direction as well. I hope I'm wrong, but this one looks like a very tough spot for Illinois.
 
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2. Purdue +3 @Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech won last week while Purdue lost, but don't let those results fool you into thinking that either result is likely to linger. Purdue had a much tougher test, lining up against a well coached Fresno team with an experienced QB in the first game with completely new system on both sides of the ball. Purdue actually played pretty well on offense other than a complete inability to convert on their short yardage chances, going 0 for the game on 4th and 1, resulting in extremely damaging open possessions in Fresno territory. Hudson Card looked good throwing the ball in his first game and WR Deion Burks emerged as a top target to go along with TJ Sheffield. VT won their game, but Old Dominion is one of the weakest FBS squads in the country, showing up in the bottom 4 or 5 in most power rankings. VT had some success in the passing game, but ODU was 117th in yards per attempt last year and lost their top 3 guys in the secondary, so they are expected to be putrid all year against the pass. The alarming thing for VT is that they allowed themselves to be pushed around in the trenches by ODU, getting only 77 yards on 31 carries from their running backs, and giving up 200+ yards on the ground, If ODU could get out of their own way in their own passing game, the game would have gone down to the wire. Now Purdue comes in needing a win badly while VT has a win under their belt and some comfy feelings, so the urgency will be on Purdue's side. Ryan Walters knows what he's doing defensively, so we're likely to see some improvement on that side of the ball and Purdue will get some class relief after facing a much better offense last week. VT QB Grant Wells is one of the most turnover prone QBs in the country and he didn't turn the ball over at all last week, so he's due. VT is also 4-12 ATS in the non-conference over the past 4 years, and Brent Pry just barely covered his second one in 5 tries last week. I think both teams have their seasons normalize a bit in this one.
 
3. James Madison -6(-112) @Virginia: To say that the Tony Elliott hire at Virginia "hasn't worked out" would be a bit of an understatement. They suck. It's pretty obvious that Elliott knows his days are numbered, and he also knows that they are appropriately numbered because he is getting throttled by every opposing coaching staff he lines up against. This was all obvious last year when Brennan Armstrong went from one of the more dependable and productive quarterbacks in the country to a worn out husk of a carcass who couldn't get out of his own way in only 3 or 4 games under this staff. As it relates to his job security, one would think he may have endeared himself to the administration at Virginia due to his efforts to put the pieces back together after the tragedy that happened in Charlottesville last year, but even given that, the performance on the field might be too much. It seems as though he is trying to go with that angle(I am about to say something insensitive, but thank the Good Lord we have a place here at CTG that we can just report on what we see) as he mentioned last week that it was a victory just to have the courage to show up in Knoxville(where they were predictably hammered). That's a low bar that he is attempting to set, thus distracting attention away from how putrid his product is on the field. They are appropriately a 6 point home dog to JMU, something that should never happen, but I think it'll be worse than that. The box score of their game with Tennessee tells us they were destroyed, but it's really meaningless because Tennessee was going to beat them by however much they wanted to. Virginia has no scheme on offense, no quarterback, a terrible offensive line and negligible talent at receiver. On the other side, JMU has most of the playmakers back from a very good defense, and an offense that is using new pieces, but looked very explosive in it's first game against nameless FCS cupcake. That's really all we need to know. Can they score some points? Yes they can. Is their defense manned with reasonable athletes who are coached competently? I would say yes, and probably much more than that. As a result, they should have little trouble covering this absent a D minus performance. In all seriousness, JMU has a couple guys at QB that can be effective. The much traveled but undeniably talented Jordan McCloud got first crack and he looked very good. They also return their entire OL, so they should be competitive running the ball. SunBelt teams are always eager to knock off a Power 5 team, and JMU hasn't played one since 2019 when they lost by 7 on a late TD at West Virginia. UVA is likely to get their best effort, and that will probably be more than enough.
 
4. @NC State +8 v Notre Dame: It took me awhile to fire on this one after getting my clock cleaned by the Irish in Week 0 but the more I look at this, the more I like it. Coming into the season, I was intrigued by Nc State because of the reuniting of Robert Anae and Brennan Armstrong(mentions in consecutive write ups!) after what they accomplished on offense at Virginia a couple years ago. Unfortunately, Armstrong and the entire offense looked very vanilla and uninspiring last week at UConn, but I think that might have been by design, although I'm sure it wasn't considered ideal to see Armstrong run the ball 19 times. Sam Hartman has looked great, but he really hasn't played anyone. Navy was completely incompetent under new coach Newberry in the first week and then the Irish toyed with Eddie George's Tennessee State squad last week. Now they have to face a real squad, and more specifically a real defense in the Wolfpack on the road in a very dicey environment. Tony Gibson has been the DC here under Doeren for 5 years, and they've been in the top 20 in yards per play the past 2 years. I was skeptical of new ND OC Gerard Parker coming into the year, and I think he might run into a very tough counterpart in Gibson, easily the toughest test of the 3 defenses he will have seen. Nc State is also familiar with Sam Hartman, having faced him the past 3 years while he was at Wake, and while Wake put up some points in those games, he also threw 6 INTs, as his penchant to have astoundingly bad turnover games was apparent against the Wolfpack. My expectation is that with more time under his belt, Armstrong will look more like the guy who thrived under Anae in Charlottesville. 8 is a lot for what has been a very good team at home in recent years.
 
5. @Colorado -2.5 v Nebraska: I totally realize that this is a pros v joes game, and I'm with the Joes, but I think this might be a case of the pros being a bit arrogant and not believing what their eyes just told them. As I mentioned above, Colorado looks to me to be very well coached. In addition to that, there are at least 3 and maybe more players on Colorado that are all better than anyone Nebraska has on it's roster. Matt Rhule has been heroic in this role as a road dog in his career, but I think you can throw everything out when it comes to Colorado and Coach Prime. The Huskers are getting a lot of credit for hanging on the road in Minnesota and almost beating the Gophers outright, but that Minnesota offense looked terrible. They will be stepping into hyperspace this week trying to slow down Shadeur Sanders. He had 4 different guys to 100 yards receiving, so assuming Nebraska can handle this offense just because they slowed down Aithan Kaliakmanis is flawed logic. Also, I don't know if anyone watched Jeff Sims try to throw the ball last week, but that was atrocious and offensive. Travis Hunter's yes/no prop on an interception should be somewhere around -225 on the yes. I like Rhule, and this is typically no the spot to fade him, but I think it's going to take awhile to disinfect the Scott Frost stench that still wafts in the general area of the Huskers It certainly didn't excuse itself last week, that's for sure.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @NC State +8 v Notre Dame: It took me awhile to fire on this one after getting my clock cleaned by the Irish in Week 0 but the more I look at this, the more I like it. Coming into the season, I was intrigued by Nc State because of the reuniting of Robert Anae and Brennan Armstrong(mentions in consecutive write ups!) after what they accomplished on offense at Virginia a couple years ago. Unfortunately, Armstrong and the entire offense looked very vanilla and uninspiring last week at UConn, but I think that might have been by design, although I'm sure it wasn't considered ideal to see Armstrong run the ball 19 times. Sam Hartman has looked great, but he really hasn't played anyone. Navy was completely incompetent under new coach Newberry in the first week and then the Irish toyed with Eddie George's Tennessee State squad last week. Now they have to face a real squad, and more specifically a real defense in the Wolfpack on the road in a very dicey environment. Tony Gibson has been the DC here under Doeren for 5 years, and they've been in the top 20 in yards per play the past 2 years. I was skeptical of new ND OC Gerard Parker coming into the year, and I think he might run into a very tough counterpart in Gibson, easily the toughest test of the 3 defenses he will have seen. Nc State is also familiar with Sam Hartman, having faced him the past 3 years while he was at Wake, and while Wake put up some points in those games, he also threw 6 INTs, as his penchant to have astoundingly bad turnover games was apparent against the Wolfpack. My expectation is that with more time under his belt, Armstrong will look more like the guy who thrived under Anae in Charlottesville. 8 is a lot for what has been a very good team at home in recent years.
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Ok. You got me the 1st game we butted heads this year w fsu/lau (I love the fact there not a whole bunch of these a year where we dug in on opposite sides! There certainly games I may have a different lean or no interest playing but don’t think there were more than a handful last or year prior, for as many games we both play I’d say we def have sone similar core beliefs or way of looking at things ). I feel like we pretty much go back and forth on who comes out on top but I don’t keep score and most us gamblers at least a tad delusional! I really couldn’t even guess between me and other guys I respect but I seem to recall we had quite the pattern of win one lose one which why I even thinking bout it , I could have dreamed it all! Lol

I feel pretty good I’m gonna even up on this one! I hated seeing you on fsu last week, it was def more a degen I gotta have money on
That game than a bet I fent super confident about. I realky though it was gonna be a last team with the Ball king of ganne. I know I came here during halftime to respond to your post addressing the coaches, at that point in the game I felt pretty hally with my lsu play! It still appeared to me it was gonna go form fo the wire. In a cruel twist of cafe after me saying one the rescind for limiting fsu is I thought they had a coaching edge, not so much in play calling (that was obvious!) I just trysted Kelly team fo have a good plan coming n then also didn’t really expect to see him getting taken behind the woodshed by Norvell after halftime! Lsu had a few horrible stopped passes that made the score look like it did but hakftime adjustments were the story to me and honestly if #2 and #11 (not 100#% it was #2 that killed the 1st drive after fsu tied it, coulda been 4). 11 was def the guy who dropped the long one where he was wide open after fsu had went up 7, wasn’t a great throw but still was a easy catch. That said fsu was the better side and even if lsu scored on both those drives we woulda got the good ending but fsu wasnt losing that game as Norvelll was 3 steps ahead the entire 2nd half as they adored on every possession I believe! Nice call fsu backers!


Anyways on to this game and why I think I will be able to hold my head up high (lol). I don’t really disagree with anything in your write up for ncst, other than I believe you may have way to much expectations for this ncst offense and Armstrong, I didn’t pay much attention to the game wit ucon, I did watch a large part of it but wasn’t a easy game to stay invested in, I agree with you ucon inability to do anything after their 1st drive allowed ncst to hold a lot back rather than put it on film for the Irish, the thing is I believe Irish didn’t need to see any film on ncst offense cause imo they know exactly what it is as they played cuse last season which I think this offense is damn near a carbon copy of all way down to Armstrong being very similar to the cat who ran it at cuse, a decent athlete with a toughness/willingness to take a beating and make the run game go but somewhat limited ad passers far as the throws they can make and what areas of the field they mostly limited to.

Im certainly not gonna site anything the Irish have done the 1st 2 weeks as proof of anything. Beating up teams you are athletically superior to had never meant much to me. So basically I have to do the same thing as I did evaluating my dislike of ncst offense and make certain assumptions that make the most sense to me. In Irish case I don’t have any comparison of a former team the oc lead or really know anything about him
So I have to go about it differently. Lucky for me I think Sam Hartman is the key here. This kid took wake to a level they probably won’t see again for a long time. The fascinating thing to me is that offense WF runs with the very slow very long mesh point often had me scratching my head, yes there things about it that put stress on a defense and could lead to wide open guys or massive run lanes, and going so fast with it obviously was a big key. times when they got rolling teams couldn’t figure it out. The problem w that offense it puts the qb under a immense amount of pressure all the time! I think there ppl who believe that offense I find quite ridiculous actually was responsible for Hartman’s fantastic recOrd and numbers. Personally I believe their very few qbs who could make that offense run anywhere close to the level it did under Hartman! The damn offense practically created the pressure fir the defense!! He spent 4 years throwing with fantastic ball placement with guys always barring down on him!! This day and age I gotta believe any qb with his level of arm talent would take bout 2 weeks before he said no thanks and hit the portal!

What I think We can agree on with reasonable certainty is the Irish have a strong oline and a better than average run game. Hartman is gonna be so confused how his Jersey is still so clean after games! If you can make the throws he did in a offense that encouraged defenders to bare down on him what’s he gonna do when teams pass rushers not only being blocked by much more talented lineman, defenders that will be getting worn down by a posey run game, and he gets to sit back and scan the field practically no pressure compared to what he dealt with at wake? I’ll tell ya what I think, He gonna look like a pro! Not to mention real play action where again will give him time in a clean pocket not allow defenders to fly at him!! I think you put a good qb on this Irish team and they contenders, and I think we gonna learn Hartman even better than we may have thought!

Back to that ncst offense one more time, if im correct in thinking it looks very similar to cuse it really not gonna be that hard to stop. Which is fitting since ncst offense hasn’t ever impressed me under this coach. Irish held cise to under 300 yards last year and I expect we see that again. You really don’t have to respect the deep ball, have a spy on Armstrong, I’m sure Irish have plenty of defenders that can handle this task, jump all over the short shit and this offense will be stuck in the mud most the day imo. Maybe you have a corner on a island gst beat a time or 2, or maybe he can recover vause Armstrong doesn’t have a particular good arm. If ncst scores more than 17 I be shocked! Maybe the d can hold up and keep them in it but think they will eventually wear down as I suspect they be on the field for a long time. This feels like a 34–17 type game as I see it very one sided far as who has all the talent playing against a team I believe offense will struggle against all
The good defenses they play!!
 
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I do respect ncst d but I think another problem w the offense they gonna run is when it not working and picking up multiple 1st downs it puts a lot on the d to hold up while being on the field way more than ideal. And I just can’t get over how much Hartman has to be loving life getting to sit in the pocket that isn’t a jumbled mess and pick apart a d rather than having to chuck abd duck!! The dude proved at wake he can put the where he wants it under insane pressure thanks to that stupid long mesh crap (we will never see this makes it way to the nfl I can promise that! ) Im excited to see the throws he can make with time and a run game that will wear pass rushers down ! I think had be left school after wake he probably ends up in usfl some Canadian fb shit. After this yesr he will get drafted and at worst have one the sweetest jobs in America, making a bunch of money to hold a clipboard, light up preseason, maybe get ri play w few games every now and again. Think he will show he can be at lest a high end backup, but who knows, could be this season earns him a chance to get a job at next level.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. @Colorado -2.5 v Nebraska: I totally realize that this is a pros v joes game, and I'm with the Joes, but I think this might be a case of the pros being a bit arrogant and not believing what their eyes just told them. As I mentioned above, Colorado looks to me to be very well coached. In addition to that, there are at least 3 and maybe more players on Colorado that are all better than anyone Nebraska has on it's roster. Matt Rhule has been heroic in this role as a road dog in his career, but I think you can throw everything out when it comes to Colorado and Coach Prime. The Huskers are getting a lot of credit for hanging on the road in Minnesota and almost beating the Gophers outright, but that Minnesota offense looked terrible. They will be stepping into hyperspace this week trying to slow down Shadeur Sanders. He had 4 different guys to 100 yards receiving, so assuming Nebraska can handle this offense just because they slowed down Aithan Kaliakmanis is flawed logic. Also, I don't know if anyone watched Jeff Sims try to throw the ball last week, but that was atrocious and offensive. Travis Hunter's yes/no prop on an interception should be somewhere around -225 on the yes. I like Rhule, and this is typically no the spot to fade him, but I think it's going to take awhile to disinfect the Scott Frost stench that still wafts in the general area of the Huskers It certainly didn't excuse itself last week, that's for sure.
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From facing Minnesota to facing Colorado, "...stepping into hyperspace..." HAHAHAHAHA!!
 
6. Troy +16 @Kansas State: Chris Klieman is a coach that I don't make a habit of fading. Since he's been at K State he's 32-18 ATS overall and his teams are always well coached. However, this matchup with Troy is indicative of the one kind of game that has been his Achilles heel, albeit a small sample size. They've played 3 non-conference early season home games against group of 5 or lower teams who would be considered solid squads, requiring the line to be between 13 and 20. They're 0-3 in those and have lost 2 of them outright, once in 2020 to Arky State(pre Butch Jones when they were a perennial SBC contender) and last year against Tulane as a 14 point favorite. This game looks very similar in scope to those, and Troy is certainly a capable team. When we talk about Klieman being an ATS stud, how about Jon Sumrall? It's still early as he's only in his second year, but he went 11-3 ATS last year and he covered all 5 times he was an underdog and 4 of them would have been outright wins if not for the Appy State Hail Mary at the buzzer in Boone. K State is going to be good again, but it will be interesting to see how they fare with Will Howard being the focal point of the offense rather than a game manager without Deuce Vaughn. Troy lost some guys on defense, but their line and secondary coe back mostly intact and they return QB Gunnar Watson who has pedestrian numbers, but Troy wins with him. They also bring back 1,100 yard back Kimani Vidal and more than 100 returning catches in the passing game, so this looks like another solid Troy team. There's not much here that tells me this won't be a competitive game.
 
7. @Iowa State +4 v Iowa: Iowa State had a terrible year last year (4-8), their first losing record since Matt Campbell's first year in Ames back in 2016. If you closely however, you'll notice that they had some terrible luck. Among their losses were a 3 point loss to Kansas in a game they outgained the Jayhawks by 100+ yards and held that offense to 213 yards, a 1 point loss to K State, a 3 point loss at Texas and two losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in which they led virtually the entire game. Most notably, however was how they handled Iowa in Kinnick Stadium. The most memorable thing in that game was the 99 yard drive they put together to win it late, but they outgained Iowa 313-150, completely stuffing Iowa's offense. Iowa couldn't run it on them then(25 carries for 58 yards), and I don't think they'll be able to run it on them this year either. Iowa was uncharacteristically bad in the trenches last year, and if the first game is any indication, they might not be much better this year. Coming into the season I was way down on Utah State. They brought back only one starter on the offensive line and although they had some guys returning on the defensive line, they ranked 108th against the run and all of their defensive linemen were relatively small. That didn't stop them from holding Iowa to 88 yards rushing on 36 carries. Even more surprising was that Utah State was somehow able to average 6 yards per carry with their running backs without a single play that lost yards on the ground. Based on that, I think ISU is going to have a great chance to win the line of scrimmage, and if McNamara struggles in the passing game(and he's not 100% and wasn't very good last week either), the proverbial noose is going to start to get really tight on Bran Ferentz. The Cyclones will be without QB Hunter Dekkers, but it's not like he was a difference maker for them last year. They started their backup Rocco Becht last week, and he looked fine against a good FCS defense in Northern Iowa. Now that 4 is available, I think it's too many points in a game likely to come down to the wire in a low totaled game. I think ISU has a nice shot at the outright, and they're in Campbell's element as a home dog(10-4 since he's been in Ames.) If they cover TE Luke Lachey, they should be in good shape.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. @Iowa State +4 v Iowa: Iowa State had a terrible year last year (4-8), their first losing record since Matt Campbell's first year in Ames back in 2016. If you closely however, you'll notice that they had some terrible luck. Among their losses were a 3 point loss to Kansas in a game they outgained the Jayhawks by 100+ yards and held that offense to 213 yards, a 1 point loss to K State, a 3 point loss at Texas and two losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in which they led virtually the entire game. Most notably, however was how they handled Iowa in Kinnick Stadium. The most memorable thing in that game was the 99 yard drive they put together to win it late, but they outgained Iowa 313-150, completely stuffing Iowa's offense. Iowa couldn't run it on them then(25 carries for 58 yards), and I don't think they'll be able to run it on them this year either. Iowa was uncharacteristically bad in the trenches last year, and if the first game is any indication, they might not be much better this year. Coming into the season I was way down on Utah State. They brought back only one starter on the offensive line and although they had some guys returning on the defensive line, they ranked 108th against the run and all of their defensive linemen were relatively small. That didn't stop them from holding Iowa to 88 yards rushing on 36 carries. Even more surprising was that Utah State was somehow able to average 6 yards per carry with their running backs without a single play that lost yards on the ground. Based on that, I think ISU is going to have a great chance to win the line of scrimmage, and if McNamara struggles in the passing game(and he's not 100% and wasn't very good last week either), the proverbial noose is going to start to get really tight on Bran Ferentz. The Cyclones will be without QB Hunter Dekkers, but it's not like he was a difference maker for them last year. They started their backup Rocco Becht last week, and he looked fine against a good FCS defense in Northern Iowa. Now that 4 is available, I think it's too many points in a game likely to come down to the wire in a low totaled game. I think ISU has a nice shot at the outright, and they're in Campbell's element as a home dog(10-4 since he's been in Ames.) If they cover TE Luke Lachey, they should be in good shape.
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I had a feeling this play would come.

Cannot disagree at all.

Early scoring and I'll be looking under live.
 
8. @Tulane +7.5 v Ole Miss: Tulane is 20-6 ATS at home since '19. That right there is a pretty good start. Obviously, they don't play teams the caliber of Ole Miss very often, but I think their defense can be competitive with Ole Miss's offense, and I know Michael Pratt and the offense can be competitive with the Ole Miss defense. Willie Fritz knows what he's doing, and the combo of a very good coach and an elite, experienced QB as a home dog of more than a TD is always an attractive proposition. Tulane absolutely took apart South Alabama last week, and that's saying something because the Jags are a lot of people's pick to win the Sun Belt this year. To say Michael Pratt was efficient last week is an insult to Pratt. How about these numbers: 14/15 for 294 yards and 4 TDs? Pretty good? That's only 19 yards per pass attempt, and it was against a defense that was 33rd in yards per pass attempt against last year. Tulane will miss Tyjae Spears, but if they throw it like that, why would they ever run? Defensively, Tulane is extremely experienced in the secondary with 2 senior corners who have All AAC performances in their past, and they have the top DL in the AAC. It will be a tall order against that Kiffin offense, but I think the Wave can compete on defense, move the ball on offense, and nobody can argue with that home field ATS record.
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. @Tulane +7.5 v Ole Miss: Tulane is 20-6 ATS at home since '19. That right there is a pretty good start. Obviously, they don't play teams the caliber of Ole Miss very often, but I think their defense can be competitive with Ole Miss's offense, and I know Michael Pratt and the offense can be competitive with the Ole Miss defense. Willie Fritz knows what he's doing, and the combo of a very good coach and an elite, experienced QB as a home dog of more than a TD is always an attractive proposition. Tulane absolutely took apart South Alabama last week, and that's saying something because the Jags are a lot of people's pick to win the Sun Belt this year. To say Michael Pratt was efficient last week is an insult to Pratt. How about these numbers: 14/15 for 294 yards and 4 TDs? Pretty good? That's only 19 yards per pass attempt, and it was against a defense that was 33rd in yards per pass attempt against last year. Tulane will miss Tyjae Spears, but if they throw it like that, why would they ever run? Defensively, Tulane is extremely experienced in the secondary with 2 senior corners who have All AAC performances in their past, and they have the top DL in the AAC. It will be a tall order against that Kiffin offense, but I think the Wave can compete on defense, move the ball on offense, and nobody can argue with that home field ATS record.
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9. Appalachian State +19.5 @North Carolina: A lot of people would be surprised to know that since Shawn Clark took over at Appy State in 2019, they've been an underdog only 7 times. Not surprisingly, the Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in those games. That doesn't mean they haven't played a bunch of Power 5 teams or higher level group of 5 teams, they have. It's just that they have been favored in those games just as much as they're dogged. The last time they were getting this many points was in '18 when they travelled to Happy Valley as a 23.5 point dog and lost in OT to Penn State. Last year, in their worst year decade, they were an 18 point dog to Texas A&M on the road and won outright. They're a big dog this week because they are replacing a lot of players, and based on what we saw last week. Appy State struggled a bit with Gardner Webb while everyone watched UNC obliterate South Carolina in the second half in Charlotte. make no mistake, that was an impressive performance by the Heels, especially defensively. They sacked Rattler 9(!!) times and hardly let a South Carolina running back make it back to the line of scrimmage. Appy just kind of played around with GW(who isn't a terrible FCS team), and lost their starting QB in the process, but the backup, JC transfer Joey Aguliar averaged 13.4 yards per attempt and threw for 4 TDs in relief. Many times over the past decade or so Appy State has had to replace guys and they've always been competitive. They are not intimidated playing Power 5 schools, especially not North Carolina. Drake Maye is awesome and I'm sure UNC will put up points, but Appy State has proven that they don't typically get blown out by anyone. It's a great card this week, so this game is really under the radar, but I'm happy to snap up this many points with Appy State. Carolina also finds themselves in a bit of a sandwich spot coming off the border battle last week and then looking ahead to the rare occurrence of a Big Ten team (Minnesota) coming to town next week.
 
10. @Florida Atlantic -3(-119) v Ohio: Interestingly enough, FAU also represents the next needlessly tricky non-conference opponent for my alma mater, so stay tuned in a couple weeks for that. This week, the Owls and new coach Tom Herman welcome in the Ohio Bobcats. This line has dropped from 6 or so down to 3 because all assumptions are that Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke will be ready to go for this one. That's fine, because although I think he's a great QB, Ohio getting only 3 in this one is a very tall order for the Bobcats. First of all, I would never say anything bad about Rourke(wait for it...) but, he's always hurt. He's not fully healthy here, and nobody within 1000 miles of Athens, Ohio would bat an eye if we see CJ Harris in there at QB for the Bobcats after Rourke gets carried off by the trainers. If that happens, Ohio is DOA because he stinks. If not, we're still talking about an Ohio team, with Rourke or without that is now 2-13 ATS in their last 15 non conference games. Defensively, Ohio gave up 478 yards in Athens to the Owls last year(one of their only NC ATS wins) and now they'll be facing FAU in a revenge spot on the road with Tom Herman's offense stacked with Power 5 transfer talent. Casey Thompson is now playing QB after being reunited with Herman from their Texas days and he got off to a good start last week against Monmouth. Herman also has film advantage with 2 games of tape on the Bobcats while they I'm sure didn't show much in their game. FAU also has the revenge angle after they lost in a 41-38 shootout up in Athens as a 4 point favorite last year. I just think this a bad spot for the Bobcats, and they're worth fading anyway with such a terrible non-conference pedigree.
 
11. @Texas Tech +6.5 v Oregon: This looks like the ultimate Pros v Joes game(maybe after Colorado) because Tech is coming off a loss to Wyoming while Oregon just piled up 80+ points on hapless Portland State last week. A lot of people I follow and respect are all over Tech in this game, and when you dive in a bit you can see why. Wyoming is one of the toughest places to play...I actually have to give kudos to the Red Raiders for having the balls to go up there to open up their season. They started off great, jumping out to a 17-0 lead, but then they just kind of fell asleep, and Wyoming is a solid squad especially defensively. Nobody thinks much of Andrew Peasley at QB for them, but when you've been around good coaching for 7 years or whatever it is for him, you're bound to reach levels of competency eventually. Now Oregon rolls into Lubbock, and the Raiders, who had designs on a special season, need a win in the worst way. There's no doubt Oregon will be caught off guard when they start this game. Lubbock is a unique place with the fans right on top of you, and they are nuts down there. Tech also was a trendy pick to surprise in the Big 12 for good reason. Tyler Shough is a solid QB and so is his current backup Behren Morton. They have their top returning RB in Tahj Brooks and all of their top 5 pass catchers coming back as well as all 5 offensive linemen. Oregon has some people to replace in the secondary including a first round CB, so Tech might be able to have some success there. We're also talking about road Bo Nix without Kenny Dillingham, so that bears watching. This game just looks like the height of a buy low/sell high opportunity based on only one week with the whole season ahead of us. This is an improved Tech team that beat Texas and Oklahoma at home last year, so I don't think it's likely that they get run out when they need a win badly.
 
2daBank said:
Ok. You got me the 1st game we butted heads this year w fsu/lau (I love the fact there not a whole bunch of these a year where we dug in on opposite sides! There certainly games I may have a different lean or no interest playing but don’t think there were more than a handful last or year prior, for as many games we both play I’d say we def have sone similar core beliefs or way of looking at things ). I feel like we pretty much go back and forth on who comes out on top but I don’t keep score and most us gamblers at least a tad delusional! I really couldn’t even guess between me and other guys I respect but I seem to recall we had quite the pattern of win one lose one which why I even thinking bout it , I could have dreamed it all! Lol

I feel pretty good I’m gonna even up on this one! I hated seeing you on fsu last week, it was def more a degen I gotta have money on
That game than a bet I fent super confident about. I realky though it was gonna be a last team with the Ball king of ganne. I know I came here during halftime to respond to your post addressing the coaches, at that point in the game I felt pretty hally with my lsu play! It still appeared to me it was gonna go form fo the wire. In a cruel twist of cafe after me saying one the rescind for limiting fsu is I thought they had a coaching edge, not so much in play calling (that was obvious!) I just trysted Kelly team fo have a good plan coming n then also didn’t really expect to see him getting taken behind the woodshed by Norvell after halftime! Lsu had a few horrible stopped passes that made the score look like it did but hakftime adjustments were the story to me and honestly if #2 and #11 (not 100#% it was #2 that killed the 1st drive after fsu tied it, coulda been 4). 11 was def the guy who dropped the long one where he was wide open after fsu had went up 7, wasn’t a great throw but still was a easy catch. That said fsu was the better side and even if lsu scored on both those drives we woulda got the good ending but fsu wasnt losing that game as Norvelll was 3 steps ahead the entire 2nd half as they adored on every possession I believe! Nice call fsu backers!


Anyways on to this game and why I think I will be able to hold my head up high (lol). I don’t really disagree with anything in your write up for ncst, other than I believe you may have way to much expectations for this ncst offense and Armstrong, I didn’t pay much attention to the game wit ucon, I did watch a large part of it but wasn’t a easy game to stay invested in, I agree with you ucon inability to do anything after their 1st drive allowed ncst to hold a lot back rather than put it on film for the Irish, the thing is I believe Irish didn’t need to see any film on ncst offense cause imo they know exactly what it is as they played cuse last season which I think this offense is damn near a carbon copy of all way down to Armstrong being very similar to the cat who ran it at cuse, a decent athlete with a toughness/willingness to take a beating and make the run game go but somewhat limited ad passers far as the throws they can make and what areas of the field they mostly limited to.

Im certainly not gonna site anything the Irish have done the 1st 2 weeks as proof of anything. Beating up teams you are athletically superior to had never meant much to me. So basically I have to do the same thing as I did evaluating my dislike of ncst offense and make certain assumptions that make the most sense to me. In Irish case I don’t have any comparison of a former team the oc lead or really know anything about him
So I have to go about it differently. Lucky for me I think Sam Hartman is the key here. This kid took wake to a level they probably won’t see again for a long time. The fascinating thing to me is that offense WF runs with the very slow very long mesh point often had me scratching my head, yes there things about it that put stress on a defense and could lead to wide open guys or massive run lanes, and going so fast with it obviously was a big key. times when they got rolling teams couldn’t figure it out. The problem w that offense it puts the qb under a immense amount of pressure all the time! I think there ppl who believe that offense I find quite ridiculous actually was responsible for Hartman’s fantastic recOrd and numbers. Personally I believe their very few qbs who could make that offense run anywhere close to the level it did under Hartman! The damn offense practically created the pressure fir the defense!! He spent 4 years throwing with fantastic ball placement with guys always barring down on him!! This day and age I gotta believe any qb with his level of arm talent would take bout 2 weeks before he said no thanks and hit the portal!

What I think We can agree on with reasonable certainty is the Irish have a strong oline and a better than average run game. Hartman is gonna be so confused how his Jersey is still so clean after games! If you can make the throws he did in a offense that encouraged defenders to bare down on him what’s he gonna do when teams pass rushers not only being blocked by much more talented lineman, defenders that will be getting worn down by a posey run game, and he gets to sit back and scan the field practically no pressure compared to what he dealt with at wake? I’ll tell ya what I think, He gonna look like a pro! Not to mention real play action where again will give him time in a clean pocket not allow defenders to fly at him!! I think you put a good qb on this Irish team and they contenders, and I think we gonna learn Hartman even better than we may have thought!

Back to that ncst offense one more time, if im correct in thinking it looks very similar to cuse it really not gonna be that hard to stop. Which is fitting since ncst offense hasn’t ever impressed me under this coach. Irish held cise to under 300 yards last year and I expect we see that again. You really don’t have to respect the deep ball, have a spy on Armstrong, I’m sure Irish have plenty of defenders that can handle this task, jump all over the short shit and this offense will be stuck in the mud most the day imo. Maybe you have a corner on a island gst beat a time or 2, or maybe he can recover vause Armstrong doesn’t have a particular good arm. If ncst scores more than 17 I be shocked! Maybe the d can hold up and keep them in it but think they will eventually wear down as I suspect they be on the field for a long time. This feels like a 34–17 type game as I see it very one sided far as who has all the talent playing against a team I believe offense will struggle against all
The good defenses they play!!
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This right here is what we call Feedback. :shake:
 
You have some awesome plays.

I love what prime and CU are doing but yet I can not support them

This isn’t because of CU this is about who and what TCU is and will be. TCU made CU look like a top 25 team. I doubt this CU belongs here yet. I fade CU a projected 3.5 win team by the books. I respect the books projections and I disrespect CU game vs TCU.

TCU played like they have the elite athletes they had last year and they dont. Nebraska has a better handle on who they are and make the other team beat them.

CU will crush NEB if the same thing happens for them that happened last week but this line is terrible.

I’m picking on this game because your other picks are on point. Much respect

Unposted here but I had CU money line last week 7.3-1 odds so I’m not a hater I’m a gambler 1st.


:cheers3:
 
Br@ssknux said:
This right here is what we call Feedback. :shake:
Click to expand...

You take the time to write why you make all your plays, I know it time consuming and I appreciate it!! Im not really interested in tailing anyone so the threads I enjoy are like this where I often get to read a different perspective and/or something I hadn’t even considered. Anyways love reading your thoughts so figure the unfortunate handful of times we disagree on a game I should at least take the time to explain my side! Gl today
 
12. @Rice +8 v Houston: Houston beat UTSA at home last week but they were extremely lucky to do so, having been outgained by more than 100 yards and benefitting from 3 really uncharacteristic UTSA turnovers. They now find themselves in a really tough sandwich spot because they are looking forward to their first Big 12 game next week at home against their rival TCU, but they first have to deal with a "road" game in town against a Rice team that I think can make things tough on them. Rice got hammered in their opener against Texas, but there were some bright spots for the Owls in that one. Texas didn't run all that effectively save for 3 chunk runs on 39 carries. In the other 36, Rice held them to less than 4 yards per carry. Texas's inability to run effectively in this game is what is ultimately keeping me from firing on the Longhorns in their game tonight. They also have some nice pieces on offense with Luke McCaffrey settled into a WR role along with Bradley Rozier who had 800+ yards receiving last year and 10 TDs. The much traveled JT Daniels is playing QB, and although he's never set the world on fire, he's obviously a strong upgrade over what they had previously. Dana Holgerson is not the kind of coach that gets his team up for games like this, and they are still finding their way offensively without Clayton Tune and Tank Dell being the focal point of the offense. Rice will be much more focused in this one than Houston, and if they get some breaks, this should really be an interesting game. Line is falling due to what appears to be pretty educated money.
 
To be perfectly honest I think ys’ll guys who like ncst have a case w their d., im just very confident I know ncst offense very well being big into betting acc so knowing Armstrong and this oc who ran cuse offense. The under prob the lead pipe lock.
 
13. @Washington State +5.5 v Wisconsin: Every talking head in the world is handing the Big Ten West to Wisconsin, and the Big Ten West isn't very good, so I guess they might be right by default(I might be against all but a couple of them this week). Having said that, I don't think they are worthy of the hype. There's obviously an upgrade at head coach and the offensive coordinator is accomplished, but the personnel on hand is going to need to adapt to completely new systems and it's not like they set the world on fire last year, especially in the trenches. This same personnel group lost outright at home to this Wazzou squad last year, and now they're expected to fly across the country and handle the Cougs? Many will point to improvement at QB since the Badgers are finally rid of Graham Mertz, but Tanner Mordecai has frankly looked like shit since he's gotten to Madison, and that includes their internal scrimmages. Wazzou is a capable defense, especially at home, and they have Cam Ward tossing it around in the Pacific Northwest's version of the air raid. He looked great last week against an admittedly weaker foe in Colorado State, but it was still a nice performance in a road opener. Ultimately, I do think Wisconsin will be good this year and I'll be looking to ride them late, but asking them to fly across the country in game 2 and play a fired up squad in what is probably their biggest non conference home game in a long time and handle things is a tough ask in my opinion.
 
Line looks like 12.5 in Ole Miss/Tulane. FWIW I didn’t make a play on it. Ended up sitting that one out.
 
14. Auburn -4.5 @ Cal: When this matchup was listed, I was looking to find a way to justify a bet on Cal. At the same time that I was having a hard time doing that, other people obviously weren't because the line has come down all the way to -4.5. Like everyone else, I've been very impressed with the Pac 12 so far, but I think Cal's success last week might be reliant on North Texas's incompetence, and will end up being short lived. They now move up in class of athlete to Auburn, and I think the entire vibe has changed for the better for that team with the coaching change. Nothing against Ben Finley, but he's not going to be going against a bunch of traffic cones this week. Auburn has 2 of the better corners in the SEC, so if they settle in against Jaydn Ott in the run game, I don't think Cal will be able to throw much on them. Also, I'm dubious that Cal can stop the Freeze offense, and I'm sure they'll find spots for Robby Ashford to come in and eat up some ground with his ability to run. It might keep dropping. If so, keep grabbing it in my opinion.
 
Idiot from Oregon takes the late pick 6 in for the TD and as a result his team had to sweat out the last play.

I’m being 100% serious when I say I have never won a bet like that. I’ve lost count of the times I’ve had them go against me. Probably at least 15-20 times
 
Br@ssknux said:
Idiot from Oregon takes the late pick 6 in for the TD and as a result his team had to sweat out the last play.

I’m being 100% serious when I say I have never won a bet like that. I’ve lost count of the times I’ve had them go against me. Probably at least 15-20 times
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I’m sure I’m far from the only one who can say that among all of us on here.
 
auburns play calling is baffling to me. Im not on them but they killing the over. I don’t understand why they brought thorne in if they not gonna let him push the ball down the field which what he does best. Pretty sure he has as many rush attempts as pats tonight! They always switching qbs which is a great way to never get one going! “Hey you, sit on bench while this other shit qb runs it a few times, now go back in and pick up 3rd and 8!”. Plus all the running on 1st and 2nd down going nowhere. This offense is total dog shit and nothing like I remember at liberty.
 
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