Week 2 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Hello Gents. It was a bit of an embarrassment last week as I performed about as well as a coin flip, but we've got a lot of time to improve I suppose.

I apologize up front about typos or presentation of this thread because I am out of town on business and me and iPads don't mix all that well. Let's get started.

1 Louisiana Tech -1 @ Western Kentucky(Thursday): Last week Western Kentucky severely underwhelmed, but luckily for them, they were playing Vandy which allowed them to get mostly dominated for 45-50 minutes but still come away with a victory as Vandy did what Vandy does. It was a rare struggle for Brandon Doughty and the WKU offense as it took them most of the game to get going. This actually might happen again this week as LT is one of the few teams that was able to treat Doughty roughly last year, to the tune of a 14-35 performance for 130 yRs en route to a 59-10 thrashing last year in Ruston. The game moves to WKU this year and although I can see a closer game, I don't see a different ultimate result. LT was consistently good against the pass last year, so it was no fluke, and WKU has entrenched themselves as a terrible defensive squad, further proven by the fact that Vandy moved it easily in them last week. LT has a strong running game back with the return of stud RB Kenneth Dixon, and Jeff Driskill appears to actually have an offensive scheme and some talent to work with bs he had by far his best career game in his first go around with the Bulldogs last week. If WKU is going to win this one, they will have to score as if they were playing Old Dominion or something, and I don't see that happening. If Doughty struggles like he did last year, it won't even be close. LT is also on a 9-1 road ATS run and a 12-3 run ATS overall.

2. @FAU +17.5 v Miami: I think FAU is a solid little squad, and they proved it last week by going toe to toe on the road against a Tulsa team that I think is going to have one of the best offenses in the country this year. This Miami team was a favorite of mine through most of the season last year due mostly to the explosiveness of Duke Johnson and Phillip Dorsett, but those guys are gone as are 3 of their better lineman. I think FAU will actually see some class relief because Miami doesn't have the playmakers that they had last year and certainly don't have the playmakers Tulsa has. I like FAU's chances to get some resourceful scores in this one and make it a game throughout. 17.5 is a lot of points in this instance in my opinion.


More re coming.....
 
Posted in another thread, Coley and Berrios ruled out. WR going to have some true frosh playingthis game. PR looks good w Elder taking from Coley. Canes should more than enough playmakers to win this game. Quez Johnson should pose a good test to see if canes are tackling better on D this year. Secondary should be canes best group on D this year.
 
I think FAU is getting too many points with miami in a 'look ahead' spot. Don't think the owls are completely awful either (offensively)
 
Disagree on the lookahead angle for Canes. That would apply much more for the Cincy game where the next 3 games are : FSU Clemson V Tech.

Also FAU has done a great job pumping this game here locally. Canes players all have seen it.

Better capping angle would be that FAU is treating this as their super bowl and breaking down how their O will perform vs miami D.

Canes should be able to name how many points they score tonight
 
I agree with you in FAU being a surprising team on the rise, but I really like the U this year. Have them in several future bets. Last year they had a top 50 defense, but had terrible turnovers; were 0-2 in one possession games and lost every relatively close game they played. I agree on the losses for playmakers, but I like the QB and that's a heckuva start. Yearby is a good back that was highly touted and they added Walton, who looks like a stud. WR is a question mark, but its not without talent. Coley and Berrios are 4 star guys. The OL is much of the same; talent, but inexperience. But, I like them because I like there defense, expecially the secondary. I don't have a bet and wouldn't recommend a bet, but I do really like this Miami team. Just my 2 cents; good luck with the play.
 
It is a little easier to go toe to toe with Tulsa given they will end the year with one of the five or ten worst defenses in the nation using total yards as the measure. I'm not saying FAU is not an improved offense but last year they had 200, 145, and 296 at Nebraska, Bama and Wyoming early in the year .... meanwhile Miami quietly allowed just 330 yards per game for the season against a schedule that was not particularly easy. In addition, the going toe to toe with Tulsa involved a lot of running the ball at Tulsa and Miami was a team that held six teams to under 100 yards rushing last year. To me, the question is whether Miami Florida is effected enough offensively while being short handed to put up a big enough number to cover if FAU gets to 14 or 17. 34-14 is good enough 34-17 isn't. I am starting to talk myself into looking at the under. GL Brass.
 
If you're a team like FAU, losing your QB early and then your RB (who had 132 yards on 11 carries at the half) certainly doesn't help things. The two turnovers deep in their own territory made the cover a lot easier for the Canes. Normally, when you're tied 17 all and Clinton Portis is tweeting insults at the favorite, you'd think you'd be able to cover 17.5.
 
clowncar said:
It is a little easier to go toe to toe with Tulsa given they will end the year with one of the five or ten worst defenses in the nation using total yards as the measure. I'm not saying FAU is not an improved offense but last year they had 200, 145, and 296 at Nebraska, Bama and Wyoming early in the year .... meanwhile Miami quietly allowed just 330 yards per game for the season against a schedule that was not particularly easy. In addition, the going toe to toe with Tulsa involved a lot of running the ball at Tulsa and Miami was a team that held six teams to under 100 yards rushing last year. To me, the question is whether Miami Florida is effected enough offensively while being short handed to put up a big enough number to cover if FAU gets to 14 or 17. 34-14 is good enough 34-17 isn't. I am starting to talk myself into looking at the under. GL Brass.
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Thanks Kyle. You make a lot of sense here with everything you said.

You'd think a team could avoid imploding on offense after a 300 yard first half, but the lack of depth on a squad like FAU usually will come to the surface when the best players get hurt. Kind of an unlucky one.
 
Dollaz said:
I agree with you in FAU being a surprising team on the rise, but I really like the U this year. Have them in several future bets. Last year they had a top 50 defense, but had terrible turnovers; were 0-2 in one possession games and lost every relatively close game they played. I agree on the losses for playmakers, but I like the QB and that's a heckuva start. Yearby is a good back that was highly touted and they added Walton, who looks like a stud. WR is a question mark, but its not without talent. Coley and Berrios are 4 star guys. The OL is much of the same; talent, but inexperience. But, I like them because I like there defense, expecially the secondary. I don't have a bet and wouldn't recommend a bet, but I do really like this Miami team. Just my 2 cents; good luck with the play.
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Thanks Dollaz. Defense looked pretty lost in the first half, but they settled in and exposed the FAU skill backups. Yearby looked good too, I agree.
 
Canes1 said:
Disagree on the lookahead angle for Canes. That would apply much more for the Cincy game where the next 3 games are : FSU Clemson V Tech.

Also FAU has done a great job pumping this game here locally. Canes players all have seen it.

Better capping angle would be that FAU is treating this as their super bowl and breaking down how their O will perform vs miami D.

Canes should be able to name how many points they score tonight
Click to expand...

Thanks for your thoughts Canes.
 
3. @Michigan -14 (might have to buy the 1/2 pt) v Oregon State: Things went badly for the Wolverines in Salt lake City last week, but they really didn't play all that poorly, save for the 3 INTs thrown by Jake Rudock. If not for the pick 6 Rudock threw late, we might have seen a different result in that game. Nevertheless, the Wolverines acquitted themselves well in an extremely difficult environment. Now they come back home to face an Oregon State squad who is clearly rebuilding this year under new coach Gary Andersen. They had a rough time moving the ball last week against Weber State, and new quarterback Seth Collins was not trusted to throw the ball more than a couple yards downfield. They were able to punch in a bunch of fild goals because they could overpower Weber State with their running game, but that will certainly not happen against Michigan. Harbaugh has likely been stewing since he walked off the field last Thursday night, and Michigan's defense remains stout, much like it was last year. I also think we'll see a much better offensive performance at home against jet lagged Beaver team playing a 9:00 AM game on their body clocks. Jake Rudock actually doesn't have much of a reputation of throwing picks, as he only tossed 5 of them last year while at Iowa. Harbaugh will have them ready in his home debut, and he's had a couple extra days to put the plan together.
 
4. @UTSA +16.5 v Kansas State: The Bill Snyder covering machine does not go into effect until the conference season starts, so before you yell at me remember that the Wildcats are 10-15 ATS in the non-conference since Bill returned in 2009. I've lost a ton of value on this game, as it opened at 20, but I still think there's a lot of value here. UTSA very easily could have beaten Arizona in week 1...they outgained them 525-392, threw for 300+ yards and converted 8 for 19 on 3rd down...no fluke there, and the play by play of that game is littered with 10+ yard plays. Kansas State lost their starting QB for the year last week in an underwhelming performance against South Dakota. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if Joe Huebner does ok, but this K state offense is going to go through some growing pains getting used to not having Tyler Lockett, who they relied on severely the last couple years. Even if things go haywire for UTSA, this line will afford backdoor chances.


5. @UCONN -7 v Army: OK....I have to apologize that I did not notice this trend until I started looking at this game, but Army is 0-15 ATS in their last 15 true road games. They have been finding ways to not cover on the road, so I will not get in the way of that trend here. Things line up pretty well for UCONN here actually. Army has one of the least experienced teams in the country coming back, and UCONN has 14 starters back. The Huskies got handled by Army in a neutral site game last year, so they'll have revenge on their side. UCONNs MO is to run it, and they should have success against an inexperienced and smallish defensive line. For a team so consistently terrible in an ATS role on the road, and one who gave up 14 yards per pass attempt to Fordham last week, you'd think you'd have to cover a lot more than 7.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks Kyle. You make a lot of sense here with everything you said.

You'd think a team could avoid imploding on offense after a 300 yard first half, but the lack of depth on a squad like FAU usually will come to the surface when the best players get hurt. Kind of an unlucky one.
Click to expand...

It was unfortunate for FAU backers. They were physically outplaying Miami for a half and lost their, qb, rb and about a zillion turnovers. Heck the Miami score in the second half looked like rb fumbled or mishandled and it came right back to him. I was completely wrong about Miami shutting down their running game and quite frankly, I am lowering Miami in my PR after that game. You had it right, and I had it wrong and we both lost on the damn thing.
 
clowncar said:
It was unfortunate for FAU backers. They were physically outplaying Miami for a half and lost their, qb, rb and about a zillion turnovers. Heck the Miami score in the second half looked like rb fumbled or mishandled and it came right back to him. I was completely wrong about Miami shutting down their running game and quite frankly, I am lowering Miami in my PR after that game. You had it right, and I had it wrong and we both lost on the damn thing.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Believe it or not, you saying that made me feel quite a bit better. I've always been of the opinion that the "right" side only wins about 66% of the time. I need to have a few of the "wrong side" games come up roses for me though. I'm sure I'm not alone in that wish.
 
6. Houston +14 @Louisville: I like Houston this year...they have all of their skill guys back on offense, their defense was very competent last year, and now they have Tom Herman, one of the most highly thought of OCs in the country when he was at Ohio State prior to getting this job. Louisville comes into this game off a tough loss in Atlanta against Auburn, so I can see a bit of a let down for them, but they'll have to be at their best, especially on offense to cover a big number against this Houston team who will probably will be challenging for the AAC title. It looks like true freshman Lamar Jackson is starting for Petrino..I just have a hard time seeing the Cards blowing out Houston in this one. The Cougs are also 8-1 as a dog over the last 2 years.

 
7. San Diego St +14 @Cal: I certainly have the proper respect for Sonny Dykes and his offense, as Jared Goff is certainly a nice quarterback and many people are logically predicting that cal takes another step forward this year. I can agree with that, but let's hold our horses here before we make Cal a siginificant favorite against what is likely going to be a really good SDSU team this year. This is a a role that Cal has only been in once in the 2+ years Dykes has been here, and that was when they played Colorado at home early last year as a 14.5 favorite and needed overtime to get t by a Buff squad that dropped 630 yards on them. SDSU is solid on both lines, has probably the Mountain West's best defense and has the nation's top returning rusher in Donnell Pumphrey. If Cal is ready to take care of business in this role against a pretty good team, then my hat's off to them, but I don't think their defense is at the level to be able to do it yet. ​
 
8. @Georgia Southern +4.5 v Western Michigan: Ga Southern was my worst play of the week last week, and that's saying something. My favorite line of that write up was that "QB Kevin Ellison is suspended for this game but backup Favian Upshaw had a higher QB rating and ran for more than 9 yards per carry in 11 games last year, so the drop off might not be so bad." Well, Upshaw went 2-13 with 4 picks against West Virginia, so yeah...the drop off was pretty bad. Despite all that, and despite the fact that Ellison is still out, I like GSU here. Prior to the games last week, there's no way that GSU would be a home dog here. They are 24-2 at home over the past 4 years and have been regularly blowing out like-sized competition when they venture down to Statesboro. WMU is a solid squad, but they are coming off a major let down situation. There's a lot of line value here, and I'll frankly be surprised if we don't see a huge amount of improvement from GSU.
 
9. Oklahoma -1 @ Tennessee: Although this will be a raucous atmosphere and people are rightly thinking we'll see big improvement from Tennessee, I don't think this is a good matchup for them. The Vols gave up a ton of yards and points to BG last week, and although they can be excused somewhat for that because of the look ahead spot and the fact that BG has a pretty tricky offense, it's still concerning. They'll be facing two very good running backs in Perine and Mixon and a big boy passing game with the Sooners, and Bob Stoops is under quite a bit of pressure to rebound from last year's disappointment. Defensively, BG is akin to an oil soaked napkin, so the Vols will be stepping up big time in class on that side of things. Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara looked good last week, but Hurd especially has really struggled on a per carry basis against good competition. I just see it as being a tough task for the Vols to trade scores with the Sooners here, which they'll need to do unless their defense looks a hell of a lot better than they did last week. I'll also be rooting for bad things to happen to Joe Mixon due to his reprehensible past(google "Joe Mixon breaks woman's face"if you need background), so he'll probably have 200 yards and 3 TDs.
 
10. @Florida -20.5 v East Carolina: I never thought I'd be on this side, but lo and behold, here I am. These two teams played in a bowl last year, and I think it's safe to say that ECU is a shell of it's former self, having lost Shane Carden and most of the rest of their offense. It was probably one of the best teams in history, and a significantly worse Florida team playing out Muschamp's string, and the Gators still covered a TD+ spread on a neutral site. Now ECU comes into Gainesville forced to start the backup to a brand new starter who tore his ACL last week. I think it'll be asking a ton of a brand new QB with a brand new OC(spread whiz Lincoln Riley is now in Norman) against what will probably be one of the nation's top defenses. They also have a coach now who has some competence on the offensive side of the ball. At under 3 TDs, there's some value here.
 
11. @Cincinnati -6.5 v Temple: Now that this game is under a TD, I have to pull the trigger. As long as Gunnar Kiel is healthy, this Cincy team is going to score. We are getting great line value due to Temple's bludgeoning of Christian Hackenberg last week, but compared to the pile of fecal matter that Hackenberg is leading these days, Cincy will look like the Air Coryell Chargers to the Owls. Temple's offense is ok, but they aren't equipped to trade scores with the Bearcats, who return virtually everyone from a potent offense. Cincy has handled Temple the past 2 years with a lot of the personnel staying the same, so I don't see that changing this year. Temple has been solid ATS on the road recently, but Cincy has dominated the AAC in conference games lately as well (10-2 ATS).
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @UTSA +16.5 v Kansas State: The Bill Snyder covering machine does not go into effect until the conference season starts, so before you yell at me remember that the Wildcats are 10-15 ATS in the non-conference since Bill returned in 2009. I've lost a ton of value on this game, as it opened at 20, but I still think there's a lot of value here. UTSA very easily could have beaten Arizona in week 1...they outgained them 525-392, threw for 300+ yards and converted 8 for 19 on 3rd down...no fluke there, and the play by play of that game is littered with 10+ yard plays. Kansas State lost their starting QB for the year last week in an underwhelming performance against South Dakota. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if Joe Huebner does ok, but this K state offense is going to go through some growing pains getting used to not having Tyler Lockett, who they relied on severely the last couple years. Even if things go haywire for UTSA, this line will afford backdoor chances.


5. @UCONN -7 v Army: OK....I have to apologize that I did not notice this trend until I started looking at this game, but Army is 0-15 ATS in their last 15 true road games. They have been finding ways to not cover on the road, so I will not get in the way of that trend here. Things line up pretty well for UCONN here actually. Army has one of the least experienced teams in the country coming back, and UCONN has 14 starters back. The Huskies got handled by Army in a neutral site game last year, so they'll have revenge on their side. UCONNs MO is to run it, and they should have success against an inexperienced and smallish defensive line. For a team so consistently terrible in an ATS role on the road, and one who gave up 14 yards per pass attempt to Fordham last week, you'd think you'd have to cover a lot more than 7.
Click to expand...

Army is also 0-5 in there first road game of the season and to make matters worst they lost by 2 as a 14 point favorite to Fordham and I also like the fact that Conn won SU as a touchdown dog opening weekend. Conn is 4-1 in this series and would like to avenge last years 14 point loss to Army as a Favorite. I bet this game at -7 early in the week when there were 7.5's around I thought this game would go up from there but having seen this morning soild 7's around surprise's me a little.

UTSA Opened +20 and by Tuesday there were still some +17's around. I had UTSA last week with 33 point which I though was insane and they had over 500 yards of offense but did come up 10 points short on a win but they they got there backers money which was never in doubt.College football market is a pretty efficient Market and it was my fault not taking the +20 right away after seeing UTSA play and knowing that K. St isn't a very good DD cover team and worst yet getting out playing there first road game of the season as DD favorite. Headlines K.ST. Rolls Dakota 34-0 but what it doesn't say they had 70 more yards then South Dakota. UTSA Solid play.
Here's to a 2-0 :cheers3:
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Oklahoma -1 @ Tennessee: Although this will be a raucous atmosphere and people are rightly thinking we'll see big improvement from Tennessee, I don't think this is a good matchup for them. The Vols gave up a ton of yards and points to BG last week, and although they can be excused somewhat for that because of the look ahead spot and the fact that BG has a pretty tricky offense, it's still concerning. They'll be facing two very good running backs in Perine and Mixon and a big boy passing game with the Sooners, and Bob Stoops is under quite a bit of pressure to rebound from last year's disappointment. Defensively, BG is akin to an oil soaked napkin, so the Vols will be stepping up big time in class on that side of things. Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara looked good last week, but Hurd especially has really struggled on a per carry basis against good competition. I just see it as being a tough task for the Vols to trade scores with the Sooners here, which they'll need to do unless their defense looks a hell of a lot better than they did last week. I'll also be rooting for bad things to happen to Joe Mixon due to his reprehensible past(google "Joe Mixon breaks woman's face"if you need background), so he'll probably have 200 yards and 3 TDs.
Click to expand...

I think me and you are the only ones that like Okie. I've been hearing Tenn all week all over but Here's to us :cheers3:
 
12. @Vanderbilt +21.5 v Georgia: Noticing that this line has climbed over 21, I've got to take a stab at it. Now that we've seen WKU shred what I thought was going to be a pretty good Louisiana Tech defense, we can give the proper respect to how well Vandy played on defense against them in week 1. Georgia is certainly a handful, and I think they'll be among the best teams in the country this year, but i don't think there's any way they will give Vandy their best performance this week, as they have South Carolina on deck. Even though they didn't score much in week 1, Vandy's offense looked a lot more competent with Johnny Mc Crary under center. They've covered 3 of the last 4 against the Bulldogs and 3 in a row in Nashville. I can see this one being close into the second half...if the 'Dores can pressure Grayson Lambert, he might be at risk for some mistakes.
 
13. @Tulsa +5 @New Mexico: I like the Lobos running offense, and I'm obviously afraid that the Hurricane struggles to stop it, but I certainly don't trust the historically terrible Lobos defense to stop what I think is going to be among the best pass offenses in the nation this year. New Mexico in recent years routinely gives up 650+ to offenses like this and a favorite's role is not something they're accustomed to or likely to thrive in. Also remember that UNM has not won back to back games since 2008, and they won last week.

 
14 @Stanford -18.5 v UCF: I think this is a bit of a square play, but I think Stanford will come out and play at their best this week. Their defense is very likely to give up virtually nothing to this UCF offense that can't run the ball to save their lives (1.9 ypc at home vs FIU). Teams from the east seldom fare well on these cross country trips, and UCF couldn't possibly catch Stanford at a worse time. The Cardinal looked awful in all phases last week, and will be chomping at the bit to correct things. Look for the Cardinal to cure what ails them and bury UCF here.
 
Literally added cincy right before reading.

Only diagreement is hou but i like your reasoning.
 
Dollaz said:
Literally added cincy right before reading.

Only diagreement is hou but i like your reasoning.
Click to expand...

Agree with the Houston Play. Played it early and took a 12.5 and now seeing a +14 or two around. Don't think Louisville should be DD in this game. Don't typing for the day. Good Luck on your plays.
 
One of my late scratches was Nevada. I have absolutely no idea how a team that looked as feeble as UTSA looked today could possibly have rolled up 500+ yards on anyone, let along a power 5 team on the road. I think everyone assumed prior to last week that this was pretty much how UTSA would look on offense...they proved today that they were what we thought they were. What does that say about Arizona? Wow...too bad I have a strict policy of not chasing.
 
Screw it.....

15 @Nevada +10 v Arizona: Any team that can give up 500+ yards to that hysterically bad offense of UTSA needs to be faded by any competent offensive squad. Nevada, though only a shell of the former running juggernaut of 5 or so years ago, has two strong runningbacks and their top receiver back, and a defense that returns 20+ sacks and a bunch of interceptions. As for Arizona, well..they just gave up 500+ yards at home to UTSA. That's pretty much enough said for me.
 
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