Week 2 Write-ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Week 1 was a 7-4 week, which based on some of the week 1s I've had in the past, I will gladly take. I can't say that I had any painful losses either, as the 4 losses(Jax State, Florida, Colorado and Wyoming) failed to cover by a combined 950 points. I don't know that you could have picked 4 worse ones. Like I said earlier though, if you're gonna lose, it might as well be quick and pain free.

My apologies for not writing up BC +17. It was a play for me and I just completely forgot to go back into the thread and write it up until about 30 minutes before kick. At that point, I figured nobody would see it, so why bother. When you get old, a simple thing like a slight modification in the schedule causes mental chaos. On to week 2. This is typically a tough week. Not as many high profile matchup, but significantly more interesting games. Thankfully, most teams limit the number of FCS opponents they play, so the vast majority got their allotment satisfied last week.

Rutgers -22 WIN
Michigan +7.5 LOSS
Cincy ML(-127) LOSS
Arkansas +10 WIN
Iowa -2.5 LOSS
Kentucky -8 LOSS
Ohio +2.5 WIN
Tulsa +8 WIN
Nevada ML LOSS
Western Michigan +37.5 LOSS
Colorado +7 LOSS
Tennessee -9 WIN
Appy State +17 LOSS
Mississippi State +5.5 LOSS

5-9 :( Season: 12-13

1. @Rutgers -22 v Akron (Bet Rivers): I would probably play this all the way through 24. Not much analysis on this one. Sciano has been money in this role, having dominated just about everyone in these non-conference situations where they are a home favorite. By my count he's 6-0 in those games, but he's also 8-3 as a home favorite since '21, 9-3 in non-conference games overall and 12-5 as a favorite. Akron comes in after giving a pretty game effort at Ohio State, but that is a very tall order to ask the Zips to hang tough 2 weeks in a row, especially when Rutgers will be looking to beat the tar out of them with a physical run game. The Knights are off next week, so no need to hold anything back here, and they'll be looking to keep the good vibes going with the fanbase. The line has come down to 21.5 in a couple spots...I'm not sure why that is, but as long as Monagai and the offensive line are playing, I'm not too worried. The Rutgers defense should also have a major edge here. I'm never a big fan of laying this many points, especially when the Greek Rifle and his penchant for firing blanks is involved, but Schiano's track record in these games is too solid to ignore.

Schiano remains an ATM as a home favorite in the non-con, but there will plays to fade them coming up I think. Kaliakmanis is a major albatross for them. Monagai a total stud though. Zips knew he was coming and couldn't do anything about it.
 
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2. @Michigan +7.5(-115) v Texas (BOL) I cannot in good conscience pass on this many points at home for Michigan on principle. Obviously, Michigan is limited on offense, and that was evident last week. Colston Loveland accounted for 74% of the Wolverines receiving yards and the Michigan WRs didn't look capable of getting any separation at all. They went almost exclusively with Davis Warren at QB. We surmised that Alex Orji might not be able to throw the ball, and that was apparently correct. It's certainly possible that Michigan held some things back, but I doubt it. I don't think there's any hidden schemes or any Syd Finch like ringers lurking on the Michigan practice fields. Fresno is certainly a solid defense, definitely a far cry from what Texas played last week, but one saving grace might be that the Michigan offensive line looked a little better than expected despite having nobody back from last year. Texas was absolutely dominant against Colorado State, and I was surprised that they gave up absolutely nothing to Colorado State's passing game, but the Rams surprisingly ran it well against Texas, with Justin Marshall topping 100 yards on the ground. Colorado State's defense was a disgrace, allowing receivers to run unabated, streaking through the secondary all night long for Ewers and later Manning to just lob easy balls to wide open receivers. The contrast this week will be about as severe as possible for Texas as this Michigan front seven was as advertised. They engulfed the Fresno OL on many occasions and only gave up yards when they deemed it acceptable. Ewers proved himself at Bama last year, but this defense is at another level. I don't think it's far fetched to say that Texas can come in and win at the Big House, but to lay more than 7? To me is seems like that outcome has a significantly less than 50% chance of happening. If Ewes and Sark have their way with the Michigan defense, it will be very hard for the Michigan offense to keep up, but I will be very surprised if that happens. I would probably be taking 3.5 or more in this one.

Not too upset with myself on this one. Tip your cap to Sark and Ewers because they pretty much shredded Michigan whenever the game mattered. Some people might be eager to fade them against Arky State, but I won't. That defense is going to come out ready to spit nails. 10/16 on 3rd down is an embarrassment for them.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
2. @Michigan +7.5(-115) v Texas (BOL) I cannot in good conscience pass on this many points at home for Michigan on principle. Obviously, Michigan is limited on offense, and that was evident last week. Colston Loveland accounted for 74% of the Wolverines receiving yards and the Michigan WRs didn't look capable of getting any separation at all. They went almost exclusively with Davis Warren at QB. We surmised that Alex Orji might not be able to throw the ball, and that was apparently correct. It's certainly possible that Michigan held some things back, but I doubt it. I don't think there's any hidden schemes or any Syd Finch like ringers lurking on the Michigan practice fields. Fresno is certainly a solid defense, definitely a far cry from what Texas played last week, but one saving grace might be that the Michigan offensive line looked a little better than expected despite having nobody back from last year. Texas was absolutely dominant against Colorado State, and I was surprised that they gave up absolutely nothing to Colorado State's passing game, but the Rams surprisingly ran it well against Texas, with Justin Marshall topping 100 yards on the ground. Colorado State's defense was a disgrace, allowing receivers to run unabated, streaking through the secondary all night long for Ewers and later Manning to just lob easy balls to wide open receivers. The contrast this week will be about as severe as possible for Texas as this Michigan front seven was as advertised. They engulfed the Fresno OL on many occasions and only gave up yards when they deemed it acceptable. Ewers proved himself at Bama last year, but this defense is at another level. I don't think it's far fetched to say that Texas can come in and win at the Big House, but to lay more than 7? To me is seems like that outcome has a significantly less than 50% chance of happening. If Ewes and Sark have their way with the Michigan defense, it will be very hard for the Michigan offense to keep up, but I will be very surprised if that happens. I would probably be taking 3.5 or more in this one.
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Good good stuff.

As far as not holding back, WOTS is that was the most basic parts of the playbook.

Sherrone and Campell are excellent in drawing up and calling creative stuff. Heck, that waited almost 3 months last year to show some things.

Now, with the QB/WR issues, will this matter??
 
I was also surprised at the lack of Rams passing game last week. That threw me off a bit and frankly scared me (even before watching our game).
 
Alright I’m jumping and it’s early BUT….there is a game at 11AM Saturday in New Orleans I’d love to hear about. Said home team has had to practice indoors at the SuperDome. It’s been raining quite a bit…true Frosh gets the start at home.
 
B.A.R. said:
I was also surprised at the lack of Rams passing game last week. That threw me off a bit and frankly scared me (even before watching our game).
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I watched the game and they did an interview with the Col St coach at the beginning of the second quarter. He said something along the lines of they were not going to change what they came here to do despite of the scoreboard. I think it was 14-0 at the time. I think the Col St lack of a passing game was more Col St not trying to throw as it was the Texas pass defense, although they do seem improved based on the eye test. It seemed as if they wanted to work on their run game for future games as opposed to trying to compete against Texas.
 
He Hate Me said:
I watched the game and they did an interview with the Col St coach at the beginning of the second quarter. He said something along the lines of they were not going to change what they came here to do despite of the scoreboard. I think it was 14-0 at the time. I think the Col St lack of a passing game was more Col St not trying to throw as it was the Texas pass defense, although they do seem improved based on the eye test. It seemed as if they wanted to work on their run game for future games as opposed to trying to compete against Texas.
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Thanks for this info.

Colly St came in expecting the loss and decided to work on different things for the rest of their schedule.

Fair enough I guess.
 
satnightfever05 said:
KSU Tulane yea?
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It’s outside now at Yuleman just so everyone remembers. Oddly, they’ve had to practice in the Dome (I don’t think it’s a big deal, but many in the media are making it one. Mainly because one was promised and hasn’t materialized as far as their own indoor facility. It’s a land space issue more than anything…run out of space Uptown).
The rain was supposed to clear by Saturday AM but doesn’t look like it. Can’t tell at this point because it’s been raining for days. In my mind that favors K St, but I’m open to counterpoints. Tulane is gonna roll true freshman Mensah out again. He beat out Horton(was here and played meaningful snaps) and Ty Thompson former 5 star Oregon transfer. This kids a baller. Big game with a trip to Norman on deck.
Might wait live here, I’d like more than 9
 
twinkie13 said:
I can move to discussion just let me know brass I don’t want to clutter
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No prob Twinkie.

Not gonna be on that one, but I considered taking with the Wave. Line just moved past where I wanted it. If it gets back over 10 I might be a player, but the fact that Tulane beat K State a couple years ago gives the Wildcats a revenge angle/motivation. The absence of that kind of attention is usually a big reason teams like this get beat on the road, but I think Kleiman will have them at the top of their game. Having said that, K State isn't going to cover this just because they want to. Like you, I love the Sumrall hire, and I'll bet Johnson will have to claw and take punishment for every yard. For now I'm sitting it out though.
 
Br@ssknux said:
No prob Twinkie.

Not gonna be on that one, but I considered taking with the Wave. Line just moved past where I wanted it. If it gets back over 10 I might be a player, but the fact that Tulane beat K State a couple years ago gives the Wildcats a revenge angle/motivation. The absence of that kind of attention is usually a big reason teams like this get beat on the road, but I think Kleiman will have them at the top of their game. Having said that, K State isn't going to cover this just because they want to. Like you, I love the Sumrall hire, and I'll bet Johnson will have to claw and take punishment for every yard. For now I'm sitting it out though.
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Also- not a huge factor- but Tulane is at Oklahoma next week.. not saying they are overlooking a top 20 KSU team at home.. but also a massive game on deck
 
satnightfever05 said:
Also- not a huge factor- but Tulane is at Oklahoma next week.. not saying they are overlooking a top 20 KSU team at home.. but also a massive game on deck
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Good point. Taking them at 8 seems like forcing it a bit. It might happen, they might actually win, but it's just not a great spot for them IMO.
 
3. @Cincinnati -127 ML v Pitt(Bet Rivers): These are a couple of evenly matched teams, but I think it's asking a bit much for Pitt to come into this game and win. Pitt does have a little bit of revenge to motivate them after being handled pretty thoroughly by Cincy on their home field last year, but there's some things pointing in Cincy's direction here, and the money line isn't too ridiculous so I think it makes sense to take the points out of it if this one comes down to the wire. Pitt had no problem with Kent, who again looks to be the dregs of the MAC, while Cincinnati piled up 600+ yards against FCS Towson. Both teams left something to be desired on the defensive end as Pitt gave up 24 to Kent and Cincy allowed 400+ yards of offense to Towson, but I like the Bearcats here. Brendan Sorsby is their QB, and I thought he was very solid last year at Indiana when he played during the last half of the season. He ended up with a 15/5 ratio and averaged almost 7 yards per attempt in a 5 game stretch including 14 yards per attempt at Penn State. Last week he looked more than comfortable(22/31 382, 2/0), and I don't know that Pitt's pass defense will be in any kind of shape to slow him down. They ranked 109th in yards per attempt and have to replace both starting CBs without any experience coming back in that position. Cincy's Corey Kiner returns after a 153 yard performance for a 7 ypc clip without a single lost yard against the panthers last year. All 5 OL return for the Bearcats so I'd think they should be able to run it effectively again. Pitt played very well on offense and there was a bit of a surprise start for former Bama prized recruit Eli Holstein. Holstein lit up Kent, but this will be his first road start in what can be a very hostile environment at Nippert Stadium. Throw in that Narduzzi has blown 5 straight ATS as a road dog and that's a play for me. I would play the current line of 2.5, but since the ML wasn't terrible, I went in that direction.

For the first 3 quarters this was a brilliant handicap. Of course Satterfield did what many meatheaded coaches love to do. Abandon whatever you were doing that allowed you to build a 27-6, and then play a completely different game from there on out in an effort to...do what exactly? Oh, I remember: LOSE.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
2. @Michigan +7.5(-115) v Texas (BOL) I cannot in good conscience pass on this many points at home for Michigan on principle. Obviously, Michigan is limited on offense, and that was evident last week. Colston Loveland accounted for 74% of the Wolverines receiving yards and the Michigan WRs didn't look capable of getting any separation at all. They went almost exclusively with Davis Warren at QB. We surmised that Alex Orji might not be able to throw the ball, and that was apparently correct. It's certainly possible that Michigan held some things back, but I doubt it. I don't think there's any hidden schemes or any Syd Finch like ringers lurking on the Michigan practice fields. Fresno is certainly a solid defense, definitely a far cry from what Texas played last week, but one saving grace might be that the Michigan offensive line looked a little better than expected despite having nobody back from last year. Texas was absolutely dominant against Colorado State, and I was surprised that they gave up absolutely nothing to Colorado State's passing game, but the Rams surprisingly ran it well against Texas, with Justin Marshall topping 100 yards on the ground. Colorado State's defense was a disgrace, allowing receivers to run unabated, streaking through the secondary all night long for Ewers and later Manning to just lob easy balls to wide open receivers. The contrast this week will be about as severe as possible for Texas as this Michigan front seven was as advertised. They engulfed the Fresno OL on many occasions and only gave up yards when they deemed it acceptable. Ewers proved himself at Bama last year, but this defense is at another level. I don't think it's far fetched to say that Texas can come in and win at the Big House, but to lay more than 7? To me is seems like that outcome has a significantly less than 50% chance of happening. If Ewes and Sark have their way with the Michigan defense, it will be very hard for the Michigan offense to keep up, but I will be very surprised if that happens. I would probably be taking 3.5 or more in this one.
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HAHAHAHA!!! "...Syd Finch- like ringers lurking..."
 
4. Arkansas +10 @Oklahoma State(Bet Rivers): This one is a bit of a hunch because there was absolutely nothing that Arkansas did last year that would foster any confidence in a matchup with a competent bunch like the Pokes. However, for whatever reason, the Hogs almost always show up as a road dog as Pittman is 7-2 in his last 9 in that role. Okie State is coming off a year in which they were 123rd in overall yards per play on defense, and although they will almost certainly be better than that, I don't think we can call this a strong defense. Bobby Petrino is calling the shots for the Hogs offense again(which is awesome). say what you will about Neckbrace Bobby, but the man can call an offense. He also has an explosive weapon in former Boise QB Taylen Green who can take any scramble for 6 points and has steadily improved throwing the ball. They picked up JaQuinden Jackson from Utah, who fits well in Petrino's offense with his quickness and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Arkansas will have their own work cut out for them defensively because Ollie Gordon is a load and Alan Bowman is older than more than half of the starters in the NFL, but I don't think the Hogs will lie down in this one. Gundy also for whatever reason has not been sharp in the non-conference lately, throwing some stinker in lately, most notably the abomination they produced last year at home against South Alabama in which they lost 33-7. Prior to that they failed to cover against CMU, giving up 44 points in the process and failed to cover all 3 of their non-con games in '21. Even if Arkansas doesn't compete well, the back door should be wide open. Should be a competitive game since these teams are recruiting rivals in bordering states.

Arkansas outgained them 648-385 and lost. They outrushed the Cowboys 232-59. They were 11/19 on 3rd down. They had a 400 yard passer, a 100 yard rusher and a receiver that caught 10 balls for 164 yards and they lost. Well, at least they covered because they were clearly the right side.
 
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5. @Iowa -2.5(-115) v Iowa State(Bet Rivers): I know there's a lot of people that are very high on Iowa State, but I am not one of them. They surprised people last year when they fashioned a nice season out of the ashes of that (seemingly dubious) betting scandal, but there are some things that worked for that team last year that I don't think are going to work for them this week in Iowa City. First of all, there's a new OC has former Illini Nathan Scheelhaase took off to work for Sean McVay in LA. He had a big hand in making the ISU offense super explosive, especially at the end of last year. This year, Iowa State isn't going to catch anyone off guard, certainly not Iowa, and as we know, knocking of Iowa in Iowa City is no easy task, notwithstanding the miracle the Cyclones pulled off outright there 2 years ago. I'm not going to waste your time telling you that Iowa looked good on offense against Illinois State. They kind of did, eventually, but I will not make the case that they are good on offense. "Not horrific", maybe, since Cade McNamara is back and mostly healthy as is Luke Lachey, the latest elite TE that Iowa will force the ball to while the opponent somehow looks surprised that they would think of doing such a thing. Obviously, though, if you're backing Iowa, it's because of their defense and special teams, which will probably again be fantastic, and it looks like they already found another punt returner in Kaden Wetjen. Iowa State's forte last year was explosiveness, and when they weren't explosive, they weren't successful. Limiting explosives is the personal forte of Iowa DC Phil Parker, so Rocco Becht and co are going to have to sustain drives against Iowa as well as avoid turnovers. They didn't do that against North Dakota, as they ran for only 86 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, Iowa State is good but they will be down to some true freshman at the linebacker position as Caleb Bacon and Will McLaughlin, two major contributors at LB are out with injuries. It showed last week too as North Dakota was able to run on them. I just don't think this is a good matchup for ISU. They clearly aren't at full strength, and they are playing Iowa at a time when they're healthy and will be probably as capable on offense as they'll be all year. Iowa also won't allow the Clones the shortcuts of getting big plays, and I think Iowa will have a major edge on special teams, as usual. I would need more leeway and 2.5, so I'll lay it with Iowa at home.

Here's the latest example that winning bets is hard. Iowa had 3 1st and goals from inside the 5 and gave it to Kaleb Johnson once. He scored on that run. The other two times they gave it to him zero times and threw it 5 times. They had to settle for field goals. Like Scott Satterfield, Ferentz was dominating the game, but insisted on doing the opposite of what had ben working, and it was only a mater of time. Forcing Cade Mcnamara on us and is cost them the game(which I'm glad about if they weren't going to cover the 2.5). Had McNamara not thrown a single pass in the game, Iowa wins this game going away. Coaching malpractice.
 
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****There's no line that I have access to on this game right now, but I am going to be betting on South Dakota getting points at Wisconsin. The Coyotes are ranked in the top 5 in FCS and are #1 in some computer rankings. I saw +26 originally, then I saw 22, but I can't find it anywhere now. I think it will come back eventually and I suspect it will settle around 21. I'll probably take anything north of 17, but I can't count it as a write up because I don't have a line. it's a 3:30 PM kick. No faith in Wisconsin at this point laying that much against a stingy scrappy South Dakota team.

EDIT: Got South Dakota at +23. I've never written up an FCS game(I don't think) and I don't know anything specific about the Coyotes to 100% recommend it so it's not gonna count as official, but I think Wisconsin is a perfect candidate to struggle with a team like that.


RECAP: This one worked out if you had access to it.
 
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6. @Kentucky -8 v South Carolina(Bet Rivers): I don't like to overreact to one performance, but South Carolina without question should have lost to Old Dominion in Columbia last week. Good for them that they survived, but the reasons that they were in a stalemate with the Monarchs looked legit. QB LaNorris Sellers absolutely could not throw effectively, and as a result he and Rocket Sanders has no success trying to sustain anything on the ground. Grant Wilson, the ODU QB helped them out by tossing them 4 turnovers via INT and fumble. 2 of the Gamecock scoring drives totaled 3 and 8 yards. South Carolina couldn't crack 200 yards, and now they travel to Lexington to face one of the top handfuls of front 7s in the country in Kentucky. Also, Kentucky had one of the biggest discrepancies in yards per play of the week in their game vs Southern Miss, even though USM is an FBS team and they only completed 2 and a half quarters because there might have been lightning somewhere in the South last weekend. South Carolina has a few guys on defense but they are by no means considered a good defense, so I think Georgia transfer QB Brock Vandagriff should continue on his hot start. I think Kentucky wears them out with that front7, especially when they know Sellers can't throw the ball. I expect the Cats to win this one going away.

Latest example of not getting enamored with what happened last week. I have to say though: I did not in a million years expect THAT. Total domination. Cats were downright submissive.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
****There's no line that I have access to on this game right now, but I am going to be betting on South Dakota getting points at Wisconsin. The Coyotes are ranked in the top 5 in FCS and are #1 in some computer rankings. I saw +26 originally, then I saw 22, but I can't find it anywhere now. I think it will come back eventually and I suspect it will settle around 21. I'll probably take anything north of 17, but I can't count it as a write up because I don't have a line. it's a 3:30 PM kick. No faith in Wisconsin at this point laying that much against a stingy scrappy South Dakota team.
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Got 22.5 at draft kings a couple hours ago

Only US book I could find with a line
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Michigan +7.5(-115) v Texas (BOL) I cannot in good conscience pass on this many points at home for Michigan on principle. Obviously, Michigan is limited on offense, and that was evident last week. Colston Loveland accounted for 74% of the Wolverines receiving yards and the Michigan WRs didn't look capable of getting any separation at all. They went almost exclusively with Davis Warren at QB. We surmised that Alex Orji might not be able to throw the ball, and that was apparently correct. It's certainly possible that Michigan held some things back, but I doubt it. I don't think there's any hidden schemes or any Syd Finch like ringers lurking on the Michigan practice fields. Fresno is certainly a solid defense, definitely a far cry from what Texas played last week, but one saving grace might be that the Michigan offensive line looked a little better than expected despite having nobody back from last year. Texas was absolutely dominant against Colorado State, and I was surprised that they gave up absolutely nothing to Colorado State's passing game, but the Rams surprisingly ran it well against Texas, with Justin Marshall topping 100 yards on the ground. Colorado State's defense was a disgrace, allowing receivers to run unabated, streaking through the secondary all night long for Ewers and later Manning to just lob easy balls to wide open receivers. The contrast this week will be about as severe as possible for Texas as this Michigan front seven was as advertised. They engulfed the Fresno OL on many occasions and only gave up yards when they deemed it acceptable. Ewers proved himself at Bama last year, but this defense is at another level. I don't think it's far fetched to say that Texas can come in and win at the Big House, but to lay more than 7? To me is seems like that outcome has a significantly less than 50% chance of happening. If Ewes and Sark have their way with the Michigan defense, it will be very hard for the Michigan offense to keep up, but I will be very surprised if that happens. I would probably be taking 3.5 or more in this one.
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The total screams this gonna be the kind of game Michigan has to have to be in it. Im
With ya if ya play it I dunno how to do anything but take the points. Debating Loveland prop, it redic high for a te but as you said he their only damn rec weapon outside Edwards catching a swing pass and going 80!!! I’m not sure if Texas can take a nfl te away or not? Unless hons can come out and put up quick points then Michigan will lean on them enough Loveland could find holes, but if Michigan in a negative game script can Texas take him away? I’m not sure. I’m half tempted to just play Edwards rec prop and a alt number that pays fat in case he breaks one,
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Cincinnati -127 ML v Pitt(Bet Rivers): These are a couple of evenly matched teams, but I think it's asking a bit much for Pitt to come into this game and win. Pitt does have a little bit of revenge to motivate them after being handled pretty thoroughly by Cincy on their home field last year, but there's some things pointing in Cincy's direction here, and the money line isn't too ridiculous so I think it makes sense to take the points out of it if this one comes down to the wire. Pitt had no problem with Kent, who again looks to be the dregs of the MAC, while Cincinnati piled up 600+ yards against FCS Towson. Both teams left something to be desired on the defensive end as Pitt gave up 24 to Kent and Cincy allowed 400+ yards of offense to Towson, but I like the Bearcats here. Brendan Sorsby is their QB, and I thought he was very solid last year at Indiana when he played during the last half of the season. He ended up with a 15/5 ratio and averaged almost 7 yards per attempt in a 5 game stretch including 14 yards per attempt at Penn State. Last week he looked more than comfortable(22/31 382, 2/0), and I don't know that Pitt's pass defense will be in any kind of shape to slow him down. They ranked 109th in yards per attempt and have to replace both starting CBs without any experience coming back in that position. Cincy's Corey Kiner returns after a 153 yard performance for a 7 ypc clip without a single lost yard against the panthers last year. All 5 OL return for the Bearcats so I'd think they should be able to run it effectively again. Pitt played very well on offense and there was a bit of a surprise start for former Bama prized recruit Eli Holstein. Holstein lit up Kent, but this will be his first road start in what can be a very hostile environment at Nippert Stadium. Throw in that Narduzzi has blown 5 straight ATS as a road dog and that's a play for me. I would play the current line of 2.5, but since the ML wasn't terrible, I went in that direction.
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I don’t even gotta read, have no clue how either team looking this year but you had me at fade Pitt!! I’m always interested in that, still same shit coach right??
 
Br@ssknux said:
****There's no line that I have access to on this game right now, but I am going to be betting on South Dakota getting points at Wisconsin. The Coyotes are ranked in the top 5 in FCS and are #1 in some computer rankings. I saw +26 originally, then I saw 22, but I can't find it anywhere now. I think it will come back eventually and I suspect it will settle around 21. I'll probably take anything north of 17, but I can't count it as a write up because I don't have a line. it's a 3:30 PM kick. No faith in Wisconsin at this point laying that much against a stingy scrappy South Dakota team.
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Do you have an opinion on Nebraska/Colorado? This game interests me more than any other on the schedule this week
 
7. @Ohio +2.5 v South Alabama(Bet Rivers): There's a new sheriff in town for South Alabama, and it's Major Applewhite, who takes over for Kane Wommack, who left for Alabama's DC job.. Wommack's tenure was unquestionably a success, as he took the Jags to their first two winning seasons in their FBS history over the past two seasons. They did that mostly with an emphasis on good defense. Applewhite was promoted from OC here, which was quite a fall when you recall how much of a coaching star Applewhite was when he was OC at Alabama and later Texas before getting the HC job at Houston. It only took two years and that 70-14 thrashing by Army in the bowl game for Houston to get rid of him, so now it's his second chance. His issues at Houston were that they played zero defense, and based on last week's 52-38 loss to North Texas at home, I don't know that much has changed on that side of the ball. Offensively the Jags looked good as QB Gio Lopez threw for 400+ yards, but the Mean Green had no issues either, which wasn't surprising because USA had lost a ton of guys on defense, and also on offense for that matter. Now the Jags go on the road to Athens, and I guess by virtue of how they looked offensively, they are favored. You can also say that Ohio comes into the year without high expectations, as just about everyone from last year is gone. But HC Tim Albin has proven in his 3 years that he knows what he's doing, especially the last two where the Bobcats have gone 20-7, nothing bowl wins and 10 win seasons each year. In week one they lost 38-22 to Syracuse, but they were only outgained 480-436 and ran all over the Orange for 6.5 yards per carry on 39 tries. QB Parker Navarro also acquitted himself pretty well in his first go-round, and now they'll be at home where Albin is 6-3 ATS as a home dog. I really don't think Applewhite deserves to favored on the road here, especially since they have almost as many new guys as Ohio and Albin has proven to be a resourceful coach who knows how to run a program. There's not much evidence for that with our pal Major.

Good job Tim Albin. Bobcats played from in front. Never did see why Gio Lopez didn't play for USA. Might have caught a break there.
 
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2daBank said:
The total screams this gonna be the kind of game Michigan has to have to be in it. Im
With ya if ya play it I dunno how to do anything but take the points. Debating Loveland prop, it redic high for a te but as you said he their only damn rec weapon outside Edwards catching a swing pass and going 80!!! I’m not sure if Texas can take a nfl te away or not? Unless hons can come out and put up quick points then Michigan will lean on them enough Loveland could find holes, but if Michigan in a negative game script can Texas take him away? I’m not sure. I’m half tempted to just play Edwards rec prop and a alt number that pays fat in case he breaks one,
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I wish I could offer some help on props Bank. It's a crapshoot for me. Like totals.
 
8. Tulsa +8 @Arkansas State(BOL): Jaylen Raynor and the Red Wolves actually made me some money last year after he burst on the scene at QB for Arky State and I took a flyer at 18/1 on them to win the Sun Belt, but I'm not sure about this line. This line is where it is because of some of the great performances Raynor had last year and also because expectations are pretty low for Kevin Wilson and the Golden Hurricane. However, Arkansas State has been a favorite exactly 8 times since Butch Jones took over in '21. Twice against Central Arkansas, and once each against Texas State(in '21), Grambling, La-Mo, UMass, Stony Brook and in the bowl game last year against NIU which they lost outright. They were favored by 10.5 last week and needed a TD pass with 7 seconds left to beat Central Arkansas 34-31 in a game they got torched for 263 rushing yards and more than 450 yards overall. Now they are laying 8 against a team from the American. I like Raynor, and I'm sure he'll have success against a still rebuilding Tulsa defense, but I don't think Arky State is going shut down Tulsa either. Kevin Wilson has a long history as a solid offensive mind, and although he's a total asshole who will eventually wear out his welcome, it's still relatively early in his tenure here. They took it on the chin several times last year to the likes of Oklahoma, Washington and SMU in his first year, but the rest of the schedule is dotted with pretty solid performances, including a 2 point loss at Tulane(!!) a win at Northern Illinois and 4 other losses by a TD or less. On the road, he continued Scotty Montgomery's uncanny ability to cover as a road dog(3-1-1), and he has most of top skill guys back. They piled up 600+ yards against hapless Northwestern State next week and I like that they went with Kirk Francis at QB who looked pretty good last year. This just seems like an overreaction to how good people think Raynor is along with some skepticism about Tulsa. I think Tulsa will score quite a bit on them so this will be a hard number for the Red Wolves to cover. 6 or more would probably be enough for me.

a 3rd quarter punt return TD for Arky State completely changed this game. Tulsa had plenty of chances to win, but I won't hassle it. They covered,.
 
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9. @Nevada -114 ML v Georgia Southern(Bet Rivers): Georgia Southern is getting some love here because Helton has been pretty resourceful since he got to Statesboro and they looked great on offense against Boise last week. In addition to that, we still have some residue of the preseason expectations for Nevada to be a bottom feeder in the Mountain West, but Nevada has obviously acquitted themselves well in their first two weeks under Jeff Choate. even when Nevada is bad, Reno is a really tough place to play due to the unpredictable weather and the altitude. The Panthers are likely to face the same kind of shock to their system that Boise did last week in the heat and humidity of the South. It's going to be a tough ask for Ga So to go across the country and win against what is looking more and more like a pretty solid team, especially when their defense has been and appears to again be pretty helpless. If they are going to win this they will have to score a ton, and although I'm sure Helton will scheme up some solid offense for them, I'll take my chances that the Wolf Pack get the win here.

Nevada out rushed GA Southern 227-42 and outgained them 498-285 but found a way to lose at home. Didn't check the play by play to see how it all went down. Wolf Pack definitely should have got the win in this one based on the numbers.
 
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I just did a very rough quick count, and I think I found that in FBS v FBS games so far this year, dogs are 29-13 ATS, counting both dogs covering(and winning outright) last night. Can anyone confirm that?
 
10. @Western Michigan +37.5 @Ohio State(Bet Rivers): Western Michigan had Wisconsin on the ropes, and if you watched that game, sometimes you can just tell when a team is well coached. Defensively, it was obvious that Wisconsin wanted to run with Mellusi and Walker, but they just couldn't get anything going, barely averaging 4 yards a pop between those two on 34 carries. They also Van Dyke to around 5 yards per attempt and only 190 yards on 21 completions. Ohio State will probably improve on their performance last week against Akron, but they needed 2 defensive scores to even get in the same area code of a cover, and although the talent is there on the outside, I don't know if Will Howard will ever make them an explosive offense while he's there. Their running game with Henderson looked fine but Judkins looked slow to me, so I don't know that they'll run all over the Broncos. If WMU can just avoid handing them points on defense or special teams, I think they can hang in the game enough to cover this many. Broncs aren't bad.

DEAD from jump. When I said this team was well coached, I actually was referring to Bowling Green, not WMU. Ohio State was not messing around. I said Judkins "looked slow" and he went 9 rushes for 108 yards and had an 80 yarder called back due to a very questionable holding penalty. So much for that.
 
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11. Colorado +7(-113) @ Nebraska(BOL): This line dropped under 7 for the first time overnight, but it wasn't that difficult to spent a few bucks to get it back to 7. You could have easily gotten 7.5 earlier in the day yesterday but a move like this was pretty predictable. I totally understand why people fade Coach Prime(notice I'm showing the proper respect) but when you pick your spots, Colorado can be a value play, and this is one of them IMO. They are probably going to be a similar team to last year, weak or discombobulated on the lines and pretty indifferent on defense. For that reason, I can see how people would think Nebraska would have a lot of success. I'd also agree that Dylan Raiola appears to be the real deal at QB, and I'll bet he has a lot of great moments against the Buff defense. But he's a true freshman, and in order to win this game he'll have to put up likely a LOT of points. But we're not just asking him to win, we're asking him to win by margin, and Colorado is not going to just go quietly into the good night and let it happen. This passing offense is a menace for the Buffs. Shedeur Sanders is fantastic, and the 3rd receiver for Colorado (LaJohntay Wester) is probably better than all but a couple wide receivers Nebraska faced in the Big Ten West last year when they built their solid statistical profile on defense. Who is going to cover Hunter, Horn and Wester for Nebraska? I don't have a clue. Now you might say that Nebraska will have the edge on the line and they'll be chasing Sanders all over the yard, but their DL graded out 62nd last week in their pass rush grade, providing only a handful of pressures against UTEP(or a bunch of Austin Peay transfers) and 1 sack. I think they're going to have a rough time stopping this Colorado offense from scoring, and while I think they'll have the edge in the trenches, it's going to be hard to cover that much unless Colorado falls apart, and I don't see that happening.

Shedeur Sanders was a bit of a deer caught in headlights. Game was over as soon as he threw that 5 yard pick 6. I was surprised that Nebraska was able to cover those receivers.
 
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12. Tennessee -9 (-113) v NC State(BOL): This game is being held in Charlotte, but I can guarantee you there will be at least as many Tennessee fans there as there are Wolfpack fans. Trust me, in order for me to lay this many points in a Power 4 matchup like this, there has to be a major edge for the favorite, and I am as high on Tennessee's offense as I am on anyone's at this point. They completely took apart Chattanooga last week, to the tune of a 718-222 yardage edge. They did whatever they wanted on offense and looked every bit as good as they did in 2022 when Hooker was slinging it at will. Chattanooga is no slouch either. They are ranked in the top 10 of any FCS poll you want to use, and we saw what these better FCS teams are capable of when it comes to being competitive early in the season. Tennessee has WRs Bruton McCoy and Donte Thornton back after both missed big chunks of last year with injuries and they also add hotshot recruit Nico Iamaleava at QB, who is probably the best QB Heupel has coached, and I think might be better than Hendon Hooker was right now. Nico played in the bowl game last year against Iowa's defense(of all defenses) in his first major test and the Vols ran the Hawkeyes out of the stadium 35-0 and they piled up more yards in the first half (232) than a lot of Iowa's opponents could manage in a full game. And Nico didn't even have 2 of the top 3 receivers last year. Their offensive line is very good and their defensive front 7 are among the best in the SEC. On the flip side, Nc State's defense has to replace Peyton Wilson, and I cannot stress how much of a downgrade that represents for the Wolfpack. He was everything for them on defense over the past 3 years, and they are destined to take a while to recover, regardless of how good Tony Gibson's scheme is. Offensively, I love Grayson McCall and I think Kevin Concepcion is one of the best playmakers in the country, so I'm high on them, but they struggled quite a bit to get things rolling against Western Carolina. I think they'll need some time, and they don't have time this week because I don't think a defense that got fits from Western Carolina and at times got bullied on the line of scrimmage has much of a chance to handle Tennessee.

Tennessee looks good! NC State defense missed Wilson big time. Lots of ways UT can beat you.
 
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Gonna have a couple more of the night games. Got a couple things to handle but I'll be back. Sorry so late, had some things come up last night, which is when I wanted to have these done.
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. Tennessee -9 (-113) v NC State(BOL): This game is being held in Charlotte, but I can guarantee you there will be at least as many Tennessee fans there as there are Wolfpack fans. Trust me, in order for me to lay this many points in a Power 4 matchup like this, there has to be a major edge for the favorite, and I am as high on Tennessee's offense as I am on anyone's at this point. They completely took apart Chattanooga last week, to the tune of a 718-222 yardage edge. They did whatever they wanted on offense and looked every bit as good as they did in 2022 when Hooker was slinging it at will. Chattanooga is no slouch either. They are ranked in the top 10 of any FCS poll you want to use, and we saw what these better FCS teams are capable of when it comes to being competitive early in the season. Tennessee has WRs Bruton McCoy and Donte Thornton back after both missed big chunks of last year with injuries and they also add hotshot recruit Nico Iamaleava at QB, who is probably the best QB Heupel has coached, and I think might be better than Hendon Hooker was right now. Nico played in the bowl game last year against Iowa's defense(of all defenses) in his first major test and the Vols ran the Hawkeyes out of the stadium 35-0 and they piled up more yards in the first half (232) than a lot of Iowa's opponents could manage in a full game. And Nico didn't even have 2 of the top 3 receivers last year. Their offensive line is very good and their defensive front 7 are among the best in the SEC. On the flip side, Nc State's defense has to replace Peyton Wilson, and I cannot stress how much of a downgrade that represents for the Wolfpack. He was everything for them on defense over the past 3 years, and they are destined to take a while to recover, regardless of how good Tony Gibson's scheme is. Offensively, I love Grayson McCall and I think Kevin Concepcion is one of the best playmakers in the country, so I'm high on them, but they struggled quite a bit to get things rolling against Western Carolina. I think they'll need some time, and they don't have time this week because I don't think a defense that got fits from Western Carolina and at times got bullied on the line of scrimmage has much of a chance to handle Tennessee.
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With you on this one and Iowa except I'm taking Iowa ML and minus the 2x. Good luck and thanks for the work you put it
 
Ok quick note:

I didn't play San Jose State getting points at Air Force because that line went all the way down to 3 from 6.5, but consider this:

I mentioned somewhere that Air Force played Merrimack and managed only something like 233 yards and 3.5 yards per play. Tough start for Air Force against a good defense? Maybe.

Today Merrimack is playing at UConn. Before halftime UCONN(who lost 50-7 at Maryland and totaled 310 yards) is winning 56-7 with 2 mins left in the 1st HALF.

THEY HAVE 480 yards on 29 plays.

Does not bode well for the Falcons I don't think.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Ok quick note:

I didn't play San Jose State getting points at Air Force because that line went all the way down to 3 from 6.5, but consider this:

I mentioned somewhere that Air Force played Merrimack and managed only something like 233 yards and 3.5 yards per play. Tough start for Air Force against a good defense? Maybe.

Today Merrimack is playing at UConn. Before halftime UCONN(who lost 50-7 at Maryland and totaled 310 yards) is winning 56-7 with 2 mins left in the 1st HALF.

THEY HAVE 480 yards on 29 plays.

Does not bode well for the Falcons I don't think.
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Ex Navy coach now HC at SJSU as well. Knows how to defend option
 
Br@ssknux said:
Ok quick note:

I didn't play San Jose State getting points at Air Force because that line went all the way down to 3 from 6.5, but consider this:

I mentioned somewhere that Air Force played Merrimack and managed only something like 233 yards and 3.5 yards per play. Tough start for Air Force against a good defense? Maybe.

Today Merrimack is playing at UConn. Before halftime UCONN(who lost 50-7 at Maryland and totaled 310 yards) is winning 56-7 with 2 mins left in the 1st HALF.

THEY HAVE 480 yards on 29 plays.

Does not bode well for the Falcons I don't think.
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Great note
 
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