Week 2 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

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WOOF WOOF

On to Week 2 (WOW already?!) Before we know it, it will be Week 6

Lets get this discussions going for week 2 match up

I think Pitt @ home may get some love, KentLucky Gaytors

Lets find us some puppies this week and hopefully let the BIG DOG eat once or twice


Whatcha guys like?
 
Some teams in unfamiliar rolls this week.

Like Northwestern as a DD fav, Air Force favored over a P5 team by 3+ scores, Texas Tech small fav over Houston raises an eyebrow, ECU is a DD fav, Liberty and Army are both rare home dogs, ULL did win and cover last week vs SE La, but still feel they're not necessarily DD favs against the likes of Eastern Mich, Texas State a DD fav vs...anyone? UTEP a DD fav vs...anyone? Miss State an 11 pt road fav vs another P5 team not named Vanderbilt?

Odd position from some of those teams I think could yield some odd results.

Big dogs...Washington State over Wisconsin and UNLV over Cal. Will have to see where the FCS over FBS potential lies this week.
 
Looks like a rough week for the FCS vs FBS upsets. There were only two last week. A few short lines, but I think initially I'd pick the FBS team in all those.

Maybe Holy Cross over Buffalo.
 
Louisville will be a popular dog but I don't see it. UCF certainly isn't easy to win at...has nothing to do with last week. UCF has team speed to neutralize Cunningham, no doubt in my mind. Pace probably will favor over and UCF.
 
KJ said:
Louisville will be a popular dog but I don't see it. UCF certainly isn't easy to win at...has nothing to do with last week. UCF has team speed to neutralize Cunningham, no doubt in my mind. Pace probably will favor over and UCF.
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I can’t see ville being very popular. I’d guess ucf takes way more the bets on Friday, Most ppl don’t back a team who they loved week 1 and got killed as favs.

Did ucf add a lot of speed on defense since last year? Cunningham had like 500 yards of offense in that game. I don’t think either qb getting slowed down very much, I agree with over, i don’t think either has any problem getting to 30+ , Think I’d happily take +7 or more w ville and maybe some ml. I certainly don’t think ucf is any more talented than them.
 
This gotta be a tough game/spot for for ECU doesn’t it? I thought they could give ncst all they wanted but the way they lost a game they shoulda won, a game they pointed to all summer and had the upset in their hands just for the kicker to blow it! Now odu comes in and they laying bout same number they were catching last week? Is ecu really gonna be up for this or be able to shake last week off? Maybe they can channel it into playing pissed off but can they generate the same intensity? Did they bring it in practice all week or hang their heads? Wish I knew more bout odu,
 
2daBank said:
This gotta be a tough game/spot for for ECU doesn’t it? I thought they could give ncst all they wanted but the way they lost a game they shoulda won, a game they pointed to all summer and had the upset in their hands just for the kicker to blow it! Now odu comes in and they laying bout same number they were catching last week? Is ecu really gonna be up for this or be able to shake last week off? Maybe they can channel it into playing pissed off but can they generate the same intensity? Did they bring it in practice all week or hang their heads? Wish I knew more bout odu,
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ECU and App St both have to be in complete letdown mode. LSU too.
 
KJ said:
ECU and App St both have to be in complete letdown mode. LSU too.
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I just dunno I can lay that many points with AM, I’m def not taking them either..

not sure I’d put LSU in same boat? Yes the ending was tough but they were outplayed all game anyways, I’d guess that one easier to move past since they had no business winning! They delusional if they feel like that was their game and it got stolen!! Prob doesn’t matter since they playing some paycheck game this week anyways.
 
Im def down w odu getting the points, I think I would be here regardless but def think they catching ecu in a tough spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled the upset, i def think it be close late, at that point ecu might start having flashbacks!
 
Don't forget, Old Dominion could also be in a let down spot. Fans rushing field and partying after beating VT like they are good or something. I'd rather take the team off the hungover win than the hungover loss, just saying, the let down can work both ways in the ODU-ECU game. So that angle might just cancel and then we're left with factoring other variables that would influence the outcome.
 
Small dog but I think wrong team favored in Blacksburg, I know BC lost to Rutgers and they do gotta fix their oline as they couldnt open holes at all for Garwo. That said I think bc is better than Vatech pretty much everywhere else on the field. Jerkovic has clearly got his arm strength back he didn’t have when returning early from injury last year, I’d take him all day every day over that turnover machine Wellls who hasn’t made a good decision in his entire career! I don’t think Hokies will be able to run the ball on BC which means wells be throwing, good things happen for the defense when that happens!
 
s--k said:
Don't forget, Old Dominion could also be in a let down spot. Fans rushing field and partying after beating VT like they are good or something. I'd rather take the team off the hungover win than the hungover loss, just saying, the let down can work both ways in the ODU-ECU game. So that angle might just cancel and then we're left with factoring other variables that would influence the outcome.
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Yeah situational betting ODU is a fade as is ECU. Double fade isn't interesting to me.
 
s--k said:
Don't forget, Old Dominion could also be in a let down spot. Fans rushing field and partying after beating VT like they are good or something. I'd rather take the team off the hungover win than the hungover loss, just saying, the let down can work both ways in the ODU-ECU game. So that angle might just cancel and then we're left with factoring other variables that would influence the outcome.
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As I said I’d like the points either way. I think ecu ordeal was more potentially impactful for them . Im sure it was nice for the fans but surely odu knew Hokies wernt a good team? They should have came in expecting to beat them, on the other hand ncst was coming in being touted as a potential acc champ and playoff team.
 
2daBank said:
As I said I’d like the points either way. I think ecu ordeal was more potentially impactful for them . Im sure it was nice for the fans but surely odu knew Hokies wernt a good team? They should have came in expecting to beat them, on the other hand ncst was coming in being touted as a potential acc champ and playoff team.
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VT was only the 2nd power 5 victory in program history. The other was VT as well lol. But in state win against ACC was a MASSIVE deal.
 
Georgia State - Mack admitted publicly he had little interest in playing these NC road games...so this is a horrific spot, off a tough road win (gave up 650). Panthers recall have beaten Tenn, and had Auburn beat LY. Outgained SCaro last week - had 2 blk punts returned for TD. A tough dog that can RUN.

NAVY - Home team has won 5/7 SU. Memphis is 1-7 SU/ O-8 ATS AAC rd - 0-10 ATS overall away. Does Navy stink? - you bet. But 2020 lost to BYU 55-3 .....then won at Tulane (+6'). LY lost by 42 to Herd/ 20 to AF ....then played the hell outta Houston away - best UCF....beat Tulsa, played Cinn tough.

N Illinois - Tulsa off tough road trip / stinks at home - lost 3/6 SU as HF - NI has win 3/5 SU as RD.

TREE - so POOF! - Trojans have arrived! m a. y. b. e
HT has won 4/5 SU - Tree is 5-3/ 6-2 in series (won by 14 LY). Tree is #5 in returning production- and should move the ball here.

UNLV - Cal is a terrible home fav / IRISH on deck. UNLV DC from Cal.

Army - UTSA off horrible home loss / TEXAS on deck. Army has won 29/32 at home SU.

Virg ..... Baylor?....BC
 
It a high ass total but think if tree stay within 10 they gonna have to score 31+, just don’t think they can slow down this offense.
 
UTSA is off a horrible home loss? What am I missing? They're off an incredible performance and came up short. They should destroy Army. Not a fan of the sandwich for sure. But they stare 0-3 in the face if they lose and it would be the best 0-3 team in recent memory. Betting against that.
 
I take the adjective to describe UTSA's home loss as a emotional one. As in horrible could mean, tough loss, potentially hard to rebound from given the nature of the game, the multiple OT and all. Not a bad loss. UTSA lost to a good team. UTSA is a good team. Good teams can't look back. They need to look forward.

If Harris is having a good game then UTSA pass game will be tough for Army to deal with.
 
bookieassassin said:
Georgia State - Mack admitted publicly he had little interest in playing these NC road games...so this is a horrific spot, off a tough road win (gave up 650). Panthers recall have beaten Tenn, and had Auburn beat LY. Outgained SCaro last week - had 2 blk punts returned for TD. A tough dog that can RUN.

NAVY - Home team has won 5/7 SU. Memphis is 1-7 SU/ O-8 ATS AAC rd - 0-10 ATS overall away. Does Navy stink? - you bet. But 2020 lost to BYU 55-3 .....then won at Tulane (+6'). LY lost by 42 to Herd/ 20 to AF ....then played the hell outta Houston away - best UCF....beat Tulsa, played Cinn tough.

N Illinois - Tulsa off tough road trip / stinks at home - lost 3/6 SU as HF - NI has win 3/5 SU as RD.

TREE - so POOF! - Trojans have arrived! m a. y. b. e
HT has won 4/5 SU - Tree is 5-3/ 6-2 in series (won by 14 LY). Tree is #5 in returning production- and should move the ball here.

UNLV - Cal is a terrible home fav / IRISH on deck. UNLV DC from Cal.

Army - UTSA off horrible home loss / TEXAS on deck. Army has won 29/32 at home SU.

Virg ..... Baylor?....BC
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I would be more worried about Ga State if they weren't so one dimensional, but their QB is mediocre at best, so won't be able to take advantage of our porous secondary, as I have much more confidence in our ability to stuff the run when the QB isn't a threat to get the ball downfield consistently.
 
carolinablue said:
I would be more worried about Ga State if they weren't so one dimensional, but their QB is mediocre at best, so won't be able to take advantage of our porous secondary, as I have much more confidence in our ability to stuff the run when the QB isn't a threat to get the ball downfield consistently.
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I dunno man. Stuffing the run is heart and effort, ya’ll d seems to be lacking both of those!
 
I understand liking vols. I was thinking during last weeks Games when I saw they were playing I like Vols to win but I did not expect them to be laying freaking -6.5 at pitt!!

I think the total is too high also. Despite it turning into a shootout w wvu pitt doesn’t want games looking like that anymore!! They gonna do their damndest to run the ball and limit possessions in this game. Their front should be able to get to Hooker at times, maybe they can prevent vols offense from getting going, those offenses need a 1st down or 2 to kick it into warp speed and move At will! The way they play d should prevent vols short quick hitters from working, they will absolutely have a hard time dealing w Tillman over the top but if they can run the ball and get vols off the field fast a few times they would not only keep the d fresh but wear vols d down! Of course if Vols come out and get a quick lead all bets are off. It would fly over then! Lol
 
I think Stanford O could do their part to a point. It’s the D I’m worried about and if the D let’s them down their O likely can’t compete in a shootout.

But…Pretty sure Caleb Williams had a few off games at OU so there is some hope USC could show up with something less than an A game (as have past SC teams). It’s just the Stanford D appears to have taken so many steps backwards.
 
Two Utes said:
Still the same distracted kids in LA. I'm not drinking the Riley kool aid, probably taking a flyer on the trees.
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More kool aid for me. Ironically I like the green kool aid! I’m all in on Riley returning them to a national power, their defense might take some time but I think he already has the offense up w the best. I think they hang 40 burger here.
 
Both good points. I just don't think I've seen enough after their week one opponent. Stanford D definitely leaves a but to be desired but this is a game that they always seem to be up for.
 
2daBank said:
I can’t see ville being very popular. I’d guess ucf takes way more the bets on Friday, Most ppl don’t back a team who they loved week 1 and got killed as favs.

Did ucf add a lot of speed on defense since last year? Cunningham had like 500 yards of offense in that game. I don’t think either qb getting slowed down very much, I agree with over, i don’t think either has any problem getting to 30+ , Think I’d happily take +7 or more w ville and maybe some ml. I certainly don’t think ucf is any more talented than them.
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i gotta disagree just a bit with you here. i think ucf is the better team, overall. the various PR #s i use have this between 8.5 and 11.5, but there is admittedly one outlier that I use that has it much closer.

anyhow, as you know, i really liked the spot for Ville last week. they obviously shit the bed, and cuse owned them. thankfully i didn't bet them, as the line value wasn't there. still think Ville is a decent team, and they were always going to be around 6-7 wins for the season.
that said, back on 8/26 or 8/27...a week before the Ville/Cuse game, i posted that I'd be on UCF this week. all that loss to syracuse did was F with my line value this week. i really wanted this at a FG or less. but it's all about the spot, revenge, and scheduling like i had mentioned before. ville had to win that Cuse game, or they'd start the season 0-3. short week with a trip to UCF, who's looking for revenge, than a much improved FSU on deck.

anyhow, if this hits 7 then yeah i see it. because of week one, i had to pay a premium to take the (situational) side i had targeted. i agree with everything else you said...ville won't be as popular this week, and because of week one screwing up the line for this week, that is where the value lies.
 
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bookieassassin said:
Georgia State - Mack admitted publicly he had little interest in playing these NC road games...so this is a horrific spot, off a tough road win (gave up 650). Panthers recall have beaten Tenn, and had Auburn beat LY. Outgained SCaro last week - had 2 blk punts returned for TD. A tough dog that can RUN.

NAVY - Home team has won 5/7 SU. Memphis is 1-7 SU/ O-8 ATS AAC rd - 0-10 ATS overall away. Does Navy stink? - you bet. But 2020 lost to BYU 55-3 .....then won at Tulane (+6'). LY lost by 42 to Herd/ 20 to AF ....then played the hell outta Houston away - best UCF....beat Tulsa, played Cinn tough.

N Illinois - Tulsa off tough road trip / stinks at home - lost 3/6 SU as HF - NI has win 3/5 SU as RD.

TREE - so POOF! - Trojans have arrived! m a. y. b. e
HT has won 4/5 SU - Tree is 5-3/ 6-2 in series (won by 14 LY). Tree is #5 in returning production- and should move the ball here.

UNLV - Cal is a terrible home fav / IRISH on deck. UNLV DC from Cal.

Army - UTSA off horrible home loss / TEXAS on deck. Army has won 29/32 at home SU.

Virg ..... Baylor?....BC
Click to expand...
agreed with NIU
 
I almost took UCF when it opened at 3 but it jumped too fast to 6 I never had a chance. No value for me now as I might consider Ville at 7.5 or greater but it won’t get there so will be a no play for me. Considered the over but not sure what to make of Ville O after last week so not touching it.
 
carolinablue said:
I almost took UCF when it opened at 3 but it jumped too fast to 6 I never had a chance. No value for me now as I might consider Ville at 7.5 or greater but it won’t get there so will be a no play for me. Considered the over but not sure what to make of Ville O after last week so not touching it.
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I don’t see how both teams don’t score 30+
 
bones said:
FWIW Just listened to "Bet the Board" podcast - they make 1 selection a week. 0-1 after week #1.

Baylor +4 was this week's pick. I took them +4 and +150 earlier this week

Still concerned about late kick off, circadian rhythms thing
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Baylor for awhile has been the easiest for me to cap. Home Baylor wins and covers, road Baylor does not. Not sure your thinking but I'm already big on BYU -3 and their ML will be keyed in several parlays.
 
s--k said:
Don't forget, Old Dominion could also be in a let down spot. Fans rushing field and partying after beating VT like they are good or something. I'd rather take the team off the hungover win than the hungover loss, just saying, the let down can work both ways in the ODU-ECU game. So that angle might just cancel and then we're left with factoring other variables that would influence the outcome.
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VT should have won and covered that game (I had ODU both +7 and ML so glad they didn't). But botched FG returned for TD was a 10 point swing. Now ODU has to go out of state to play EC - and they have another Virginia Super Bowl next week vs. Virginia. Think it's a bad spot for ODU. And either their Offense isn't very good or VT Defense is great (I lost on their TT O20.5).

Of course can EC get off the deck after a brutal loss due to their kicker. To me, that always comes down to coaching. Great coaches can get the kids to put it behind them and move on. Tough cap.
 
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KJ said:
UTSA is off a horrible home loss? What am I missing? They're off an incredible performance and came up short. They should destroy Army. Not a fan of the sandwich for sure. But they stare 0-3 in the face if they lose and it would be the best 0-3 team in recent memory. Betting against that.
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This has to be one of the worst spots of the season for UTSA. Off heart breaking L to in state Houston.. @Texas on deck.. now got an 11a CST kick vs a triple option team. Army also beat UTSA in 2019 and 2020, both by double digits. UTSA much better- but the spot in the biggest sandwich I've seen in a while.
 
satnightfever05 said:
This has to be one of the worst spots of the season for UTSA. Off heart breaking L to in state Houston.. @Texas on deck.. now got an 11a CST kick vs a triple option team. Army also beat UTSA in 2019 and 2020, both by double digits. UTSA much better- but the spot in the biggest sandwich I've seen in a while.
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Ironically I'm a situational player and see it as a must win spot off an incredible performance. Think they knew coming in to this season that this game was the difference between 1-2 and 0-3.
 
I guess Nevada could go down to Incarnate Word. 2.5 pt line.

You know Nevada is an interesting team in that they were heavily doubted week 1 and got an undeserving cover in the eyes of most. Then their line last week went from maybe Nevada -5 I think to being a home dog of 2/2.5 to Texas State. Nevada won 38-14. But check the box score on that one. A 24 pt win, TxSt had 15-13 FD and 277-274 TY edges. But TxSt -4 turnovers.

Incarnate Word was met with a lot of skepticism last week, but blew the doors off Southern Illinois 64-29.

Will this finally be the week that this 2-0 Nevada team meets their rightful fate?
 
KJ said:
Ironically I'm a situational player and see it as a must win spot off an incredible performance. Think they knew coming in to this season that this game was the difference between 1-2 and 0-3.
Click to expand...

I've never believed football players or coaches think like we do or think like we think they think. To a man, those UTSA players can't wait to go and try and beat Texas. It's the mentality of wanting to prove yourself and compete with the best and playing games to win them. You want me to believe that UTSA players and coaches in the offseason just chalk up the Texas game as a loss? No way.
 
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