A few thoughts on Kentucky...Florida has won 31 straight, but this series has gotten pretty competitive. 3 of the last 4 have been decided by a total of 12 pts. 2014 3OT 36-30, 2015 14-9, 2016 45-7, 2017 28-27.
UK got absolutely demolished in 2016. FL did start 7-1 that year and in the loss at Tenn, that was the year they led 21-0 and Vols came back. So just for perspective UF was off to a pretty good start in '16. That was also the year that UK lost to Southern Miss. I guess in a way ,it seems like UK under Stoops kinda has the same team every year though.
It is hard to make a real strong case for them with some questions and unknowns on offense.
New QB this year, in JUCO Terry Wilson. Probably more upside than Stephen Johnson, but 3 TOs in week 1 is tough to swallow. Still Benny Snell's team. He may have a new running mate this year with Asim Rose who topped 100y last week also. And last year's first guy off the bench King is still there too making this a pretty strong RB group.
The OL appeared like it was going to be stronger than it was at this point in 2017, but they lost LT Young in fall camp. The other 4 spots being pretty settled, they are rotating rFr Watkins who they were pretty high on last year but were able to RS and former highly regarded Price who had some hype but hasn't played much anywhere (transfered from USC sat out last year). So they have some talent at that position, but they are lacking experience, it should be the only real questionable spot on the OL, albeit a pretty important one.
There is some uncertainty at WR. Lynn Bowden is a great athlete and they tried using him different ways last year as a Tr Fr. He will certainly play a bigger role this year and will be in a better position to contribute. Dorian Baker is a name from the past, missed all of last year and was injured in 2016 as well. He's back, but how effective? Richardson was LY's #2 but he didn't catch a ball vs CMich. At this point it has to be considered a work in progress and perhaps an average-ish group until they produce and prove themselves.
Defense, there are things to like here. Seniors Josh Allen, LB Jordan Jones, and S Mike Edwards all came back for their final seasons rather than going to the NFL. There are lots of Seniors among the group that have been starting since they were Frosh. It's Kentucky, so against top flight teams, they aren't going to control games, but vs mid-tier SEC types (which I would think Florida still is at this point), they should hold up well.
Not real sure about the special teams unit and that is somewhere that can really matter in a suspected close game.
Florida? Lot's of hype justified? Can Feleipe Franks really lead them to significant improvement? What can Mullen get out of him? This Florida O hasn't been good for years. Some might say, "you don't have to be good to beat Kentucky", well maybe, sure. But atleast UK has stability and continuity among their staff and players. Naturally there is talent on the O, they just haven't put it together. How much magic does Mullen have and how fast can he work it? Until Mullen got Dak Prescott going, Miss St wasn't that great in his first several years. Sure he has better starting talent to work with here, but still, getting results out of guys who haven't produced winning results can be tough I think. The OL does return a ton of starts, but they also return a bunch of underachieving, how quick can that change?
UF had led with defense, that was until last year when most of the Muschamp recruits were gone and the D was no longer a strong point for the Gators. They still have some nice players, but are their starting D players really any better than Kentucky's? The D numbers dropped dramatically last year, the question, like everything else with Florida, is how fast can they rebound with the new staff and all?
Florida loses Pineiro who was almost always money, so both UK and UF are breaking in new kickers and punters.
Last week UK should've had a comfortable win, but instead -4 TO deficit. UK fumbled in their own territory leading to a CM FG (41y drive), threw a pick-six and thew another INT leading to a second FG (6y drive). CMich only had 3.86 yards per play in the game, which was 8th worst last week. UF isn't CM obviously, and CM is different this year without Morris, they have a running QB game now. But if we are looking at that game as a 15pt win, vs what it could've been without the turnovers maybe UK would be looking better. But the turnovers happened, and they could happen again this week. So there is that.
This isn't a game that I have a great feel on, wish I had a little more confidence on UK's O outside of their running game. Running game alone isn't going to be good enough this week. Florida owns them period and we are talking straight up ML win here. 2016 reminds us that when Florida has it going the right direction they are significantly better than Kentucky. But 2014, 15 and 17 tell us that Kentucky is plenty capable of hanging toe-to-toe with the Gators. What will 2018 tell us? Can they break through this year and end the streak?
