Week 2 Dr. Bob
- Thread starter 3wiggler
- Start date
D
DrAtomic
Guest
Georgia is going to roll by double digits
Santacapper
Pretty much a regular
wheres RExy
richardtonsj
Pretty much a regular
Hello everyone!!!
Just joined this morning...I've been a member of the other forum for almost 2 years now. Just found out about this forum recently.
Great to see some old names here!!!
Just joined this morning...I've been a member of the other forum for almost 2 years now. Just found out about this forum recently.
Great to see some old names here!!!
Tenderviddles2
Well-Known Member
Dr Bob's picks vague info...
I just read from his website - college picks released 5:45 eastern time today...
I just read from his website - college picks released 5:45 eastern time today...
Saw you at bottom of list and recognize the name from 'Sports Direct'
welcome:cheers:
Santacapper
Pretty much a regular
barmeezee
dirty hippie fuckslave
BAR pays for 3K for lifetime pass to Dr BOB
what do you look like?
richardtonsj
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for warm welcome guys! I'm interested to find out about Dr. Bob's picks for this week. I remember last year he had several good weeks, especially in the beginning of the year. I usually stay away from his plays unless I really like it.
Hoping to have a great year!
Hoping to have a great year!
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
Dr. Bob's plays Week 1 ???
Any confirmation of teams that he was on last week?
I can't find any threads on it
Any confirmation of teams that he was on last week?
I can't find any threads on it
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
Big Al, my question about last week, not this week!
2 separate weeks we are talking about here!
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
Please un-merge my thread, LOL
if "un-merge" is even a word!
if "un-merge" is even a word!
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
so, his record was 4 wins and 5 losses against both the opening and the closing line
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
I think he'll fare better as the season moves along because he relies on statistical info and week 1 obviously did not have any
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
I don't know if anybody follows him....
we use him for line movements....if he takes, say, UCLA -7, that line will move to 9.5 or 10..
If u like UCLA u better hit it as soon as his plays are released or if u like BYU wait for the line to rise...it also can give great middle opportunities..
That's the importance of the threads.
we use him for line movements....if he takes, say, UCLA -7, that line will move to 9.5 or 10..
If u like UCLA u better hit it as soon as his plays are released or if u like BYU wait for the line to rise...it also can give great middle opportunities..
That's the importance of the threads.
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
Sometimes I play, sometimes I fade, but I trust myself first and foremost because of a track record that spans over a decade of winning
gridironguy
Pretty much a regular
Yes, it can give great middle opp's if you time it right by playing both early and late
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Main thing as jump said is the line movements he causes, I'll never play one of his plays to follow him, but I like to know what he's on to see how it effects my plays.
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
Yeah, seriously. I was just thinking the same thing. I don't think I've seen him in here yet this week...
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
Rex is busy i'm sure, but if he sees the plays being released I'm confident we'll know..
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
found this on another site...if someone is interested
2 Star Selection
**JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) 27 Tennessee 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Jacksonville was a much better team last season than their 8-8 record would indicate, as the Jags averaged 5.6 yards per play and allowed just 4.7 yppl while out-scoring their opponents by an average of 23.2 to 17.1. Jacksonville was 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or less and more of those close games are destined to go their way this season and I’m expecting 10 or 11 wins from the Jags. Jaguars’ coach Jack Del Rio has chosen David Garrard to be the starting quarterback, which seems like a good decision given that Garrard has performed better than Bryon Leftwich over the last couple of seasons. Garrard stepped in for an injured Leftwich last season in week 8 and the Jaguars offense averaged 6.0 yards per play in their final 10 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Garrard has been about average as a passer in his career (6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but his running ability is a plus and the team seems to rally around Garrard more than they did for Leftwich. The rushing attack is what carried the Jaguars’ offense last season as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 2087 yards at 5.3 ypr. I don’t expect those two to run for that high of an average again this season, but the rushing attack will still be among the NFL’s best and I rate the offense at 0.2 yppl better than average overall. Jacksonville is a good team because of their defense, which yielded just 4.7 yppl last season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Jacksonville should be a bit better than that this season, as the run defense was 0.4 ypr better in the 11 games with DT Marcus Stroud available to play than they were in the 5 games he missed. Stroud teams with John Henderson to give the Jaguars the league’s best set of run-stuffing defensive tackles (although Minnesota’s pair of Williams were damn good last year) and the defensive backfield is also good, allowing just 5.5 yppp last season to teams that would average a combined 6.2 yppp against an average defensive team. Jacksonville is one of the best teams in the league and I’m playing them Over 9 wins.
Tennessee was a good story last year, going 8-5 with Vince Young as the starting quarterback after an 0-3 start. Don’t be fooled by that record, as the Titans were not a better than average team with Young at quarterback. Tennessee was 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or less with Young at quarterback and that sort of good fortune is not likely to repeat itself. Tennessee was slightly better than average offensively last season with Young starting (5.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), but the defense was 0.2 yppl worse than average and the special teams were good. Overall, the Titans were an average team with Young at quarterback but that will not be the case this season after losing starting running back Travis Henry (1211 yards at 4.5 ypr), their top two wideouts in Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade and Pac- Man Jones. Young will have one of the league’s worst receiving corps and the rushing attack will not be nearly as good without Henry. The Titans did get a good replacement for Jones in the secondary when they picked up former Colts’ CB Nick Harper, but Jones was also a weapon as a punt returner and his contributions on special teams will be missed. Overall, I rate the Titans 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense with better than average special teams. Tennessee is in a tough division so it looks like 6 or 7 wins tops for the Titans this year.
My ratings favor Jacksonville by 11 points and the Jaguars apply to a very good 30-11 ATS game 1 indicator. I’ll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
NY JETS 20 New England (-6.5) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
The Patriots had an off year offensively in 2006, averaging just 5.2 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but adding receivers Donte Stallworth, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker will provide a major upgrade for Tom Brady to throw to and I expect Brady to return to the high yards per pass play numbers he had registered in 2004 and 2005. The rushing attack looks like it will be solid with Laurence Maroney taking over full-time duties and running behind a very good offensive line and I rate the Patriots’ attack at 0.6 yppl better than average this season with potential to be even better if Randy Moss comes close to his old Minnesota Vikings form. The Pats’ defense was solid last season, rating at 0.2 ypr and 0.3 yppp better than average, but they should be even better with the addition of LB Adalius Thomas. New England is also among the best in the league on special teams and I rate the Patriots as one of my top 3 teams going into 2007.
New York was an average team last season and they were lucky to finish 10-6 and to make the playoffs. The Jets were 0.2 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack) and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive unit) and 1 point better than average on special teams. The Jets should be better offensively, as the addition of RB Thomas Jones from Chicago (1210 yards at 4.1 ypr) gives them a decent rushing attack after averaging just 3.7 ypr in 2006 and quarterback Chad Pennington should have another better than average season. Pennington averaged 6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average QB and that was right in line with his career rating of +0.4 yppp. While New York will probably be slightly better than average this season on offense it appears as if their defense will be slightly worse than average until they can prove that they can stop the run (allowed 4.7 ypr last season to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team). The Jets are likely going to be a better team overall this season but it’s doubtful that they’ll reach 10 wins and the playoffs given their tough schedule and mediocre talent.
My ratings only favor New England by 3 ½ points in this game, so it appears as if the Patriots were a bit over-hyped in the off-season. The Patriots also apply to a negative 11-25-1 ATS game 1 indicator that plays against road teams that were 12-4 or better the previous season. I’ll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion
Tampa Bay 20 SEATTLE (-6.0) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
The addition of Jeff Garcia to play quarterback will ensure that the Buccaneers will rebound from last year’s 4-12 record. Garcia is not going to put up the numbers he did in Philadelphia last season (6.5 yards per pass play), as the Eagles had better receivers than the Bucs do this year, but he should be around the 5.9 yppp average that he’s produced over the last 3 years with Cleveland, Detroit, and Philly. A decent pass attack will be a huge improvement over last year, when Tampa had to rely on rookie Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs finished the season averaging an NFC low 5.0 yppp. Tampa’s rushing attack suffered as teams stacked the line with little fear of the pass, but the Buccaneers should be closer to average running the ball this season after rating at 0.4 ypr worse than average in 2006. Overall, I peg Tampa Bay to be 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively after being 0.7 yppl worse than average last season. Tampa’s defense is getting older, but the Bucs should still be a mediocre unit after finishing a bit better than average defensively last season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). Tampa Bay plays a pretty easy schedule this season and they look like an 7 to 9 win team to me.
Seattle was a bad team last season but made the playoffs anyway by playing a bad schedule of teams. The Seahawks were out-scored 20.9 to 21.3 points per game and they were out-gained 4.8 yard per play to 5.4 yppl and had worse than average special teams. The offense was hurt last year by a less talented offensive line and an injury to top back Shaun Alexander. Alexander averaged just 3.6 ypr and while he’s likely to top that number this season he won’t come close to his lifetime average of 4.4 ypr, which was helped by a great offensive line. Only left tackle Walter Jones is an above average linemen now that All-Pro C Robbie Tobeck has retired, so Alexander’s days of topping 4.0 ypr are likely over. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had far less time to throw the ball last season and suffered too many sacks. The results was a horrible 5.5 yards per pass play. I expect the pass attack to rebound this season to an above average level, but not to the Pro Bowl level Hasselbeck was at a few years ago. The Seahawks’ defense also fell off sharply last season, as an injury to run-stuffing DT Marcel Tubbs greatly affected the run defense. Seattle allowed just 3.8 ypr in the 5 games Tubbs played in and 4.8 ypr in the 11 games in which Tubbs was out. The bad news is that Tubbs suffered another injury and will not play this season, leaving only untested rookie Brandon Mebane as a legitimate run stuffer. DE Patrick Kearny was added to help the pass rush and to CB Marcus Trufant should rebound from a bad year, so the pass defense should be better than average after struggling last season. The defense looks just average overall unless the Seahawks can find an adequate replacement for Tubbs. Seattle is a better team this season, but they’re just average overall and will struggle to get back to the playoffs. My ratings favor Seattle by just 4 points and Tampa Bay applies to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator, so I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
OAKLAND (-2.0) 23 Detroit 16
01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Lions fans are dreaming big this season thanks to a potential potent offense now loaded with good receivers after drafting WR Calvin Johnson with the #2 overall pick. Detroit should have a much better pass attack with Johnson joining Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, as the Lions lacked a good 3rd receiver last season. However, the offensive line is the league’s worst and quarterback Jon Kitna was sacked 63 times last season, so the line will have to get better before the Lions truly blossom offensively. Bringing running back Tatum Bell over from Denver isn’t going to add anything to the ground game since Bell’s 4.4 ypr was produced running behind Denver’s good offense line and he won’t have nearly that much success without holes to run through. Detroit was 0.1 yards per play worse than average last season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) despite throwing the ball nearly 70% of the time, but I rate the Lions’ attack at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. The offense will have to be even better than that to make up for a defense that was 0.4 yppl worse than average in 2006. That defense will get better against the run with DT Shaun Rogers back after he missed most of last season, but the pass defense will still be bad after losing their best cornerback Dre’ Bly to Denver in the trade for Bell. Detroit is still going to be worse than average defensively and worse than average overall this season, but they can greatly improve their 3-13 record if they can just win a few close games after gong 1-8 last season in games decided by 7 points or less.
I knew I would have the Raiders rated higher coming into this season than they were at the end of last season, but I’m surprised by how much the Silver and Black will be improved. Oakland had a very good defense last year, rating at 0.4 yards per play better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but their offense was so horrible that that defense was constantly put on the field with their backs against their own goal line. Raiders’ coach Art Shell made a HUGE mistake in hiring his old offensive coordinator from the 90’s despite his having been out of football for a decade. The results were horrendous, as the offense was constantly confused and had no belief in the plays that they were running – plays that simply didn’t work against modern defenses. Oakland has no good system for picking up blitzes and the Raiders’ quarterbacks were sacked a combined 72 times while Oakland averaged a pathetic 4.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while turning the ball over 46 times. The Raiders new head coach Lane Kiffen was smart enough to retain defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and the defense should be just as good as it was last season with all 11 starters returning. The offense will be much better too in Kiffin’s sophisticated offense and offensive line coach Tom Cable is installing a zone blocking scheme that suits the personnel much better. The Raiders’ linemen haven’t lived up to their massive potential because they haven’t been coached up at all. That has changed this year and the Raiders only allowed 7 sacks in 4 games with the quarterbacks no longer taking 7 step drops. The run blocking has also looked better and the Raiders should be a bit closer to average running the ball than they were last year. Oakland’s pass attack will be the major beneficiary of the coaching changes, as both Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper have proven to be serviceable quarterbacks and the receiving corps is not really too bad at all with Ronald Curry posting an impressive 8.2 yards per pass thrown to him last season and Jerry Porter returning after spending last season in Shell’s doghouse. The Raiders have averaged 5.7 yppp in the pre-season with McCown and Culpepper combining to average a solid 6.4 yppp. I realize that some of those numbers came against second string defensive units, but McCown averaged 5.5 yards per pass play as a starter in 2004 and 2005 in Arizona and Culpepper has averaged 5.4 yppp in his last two seasons, so the Raiders should be somewhere in that neighborhood throwing the ball this year (which is still much worse than the league average of 6.1 yppp). If that is the case then I rate the Raiders at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively, which makes them a pretty decent team if their defense is once again at 0.4 yppl better than average. That’s actually not that far fetched considering that the Raiders were only 0.2 yppl worse than average two years ago with Kerry Collins at quarterback. If the offensive improvement is as much as I think it’s going to be then the Raiders could be looking at a 7-9 or 8-8 season this year.
My ratings favor the Raiders by 6 ½ points and the Raiders apply to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator. I’ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion in this game at -3 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) 27 Tennessee 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Jacksonville was a much better team last season than their 8-8 record would indicate, as the Jags averaged 5.6 yards per play and allowed just 4.7 yppl while out-scoring their opponents by an average of 23.2 to 17.1. Jacksonville was 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or less and more of those close games are destined to go their way this season and I’m expecting 10 or 11 wins from the Jags. Jaguars’ coach Jack Del Rio has chosen David Garrard to be the starting quarterback, which seems like a good decision given that Garrard has performed better than Bryon Leftwich over the last couple of seasons. Garrard stepped in for an injured Leftwich last season in week 8 and the Jaguars offense averaged 6.0 yards per play in their final 10 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Garrard has been about average as a passer in his career (6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but his running ability is a plus and the team seems to rally around Garrard more than they did for Leftwich. The rushing attack is what carried the Jaguars’ offense last season as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 2087 yards at 5.3 ypr. I don’t expect those two to run for that high of an average again this season, but the rushing attack will still be among the NFL’s best and I rate the offense at 0.2 yppl better than average overall. Jacksonville is a good team because of their defense, which yielded just 4.7 yppl last season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Jacksonville should be a bit better than that this season, as the run defense was 0.4 ypr better in the 11 games with DT Marcus Stroud available to play than they were in the 5 games he missed. Stroud teams with John Henderson to give the Jaguars the league’s best set of run-stuffing defensive tackles (although Minnesota’s pair of Williams were damn good last year) and the defensive backfield is also good, allowing just 5.5 yppp last season to teams that would average a combined 6.2 yppp against an average defensive team. Jacksonville is one of the best teams in the league and I’m playing them Over 9 wins.
Tennessee was a good story last year, going 8-5 with Vince Young as the starting quarterback after an 0-3 start. Don’t be fooled by that record, as the Titans were not a better than average team with Young at quarterback. Tennessee was 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or less with Young at quarterback and that sort of good fortune is not likely to repeat itself. Tennessee was slightly better than average offensively last season with Young starting (5.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), but the defense was 0.2 yppl worse than average and the special teams were good. Overall, the Titans were an average team with Young at quarterback but that will not be the case this season after losing starting running back Travis Henry (1211 yards at 4.5 ypr), their top two wideouts in Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade and Pac- Man Jones. Young will have one of the league’s worst receiving corps and the rushing attack will not be nearly as good without Henry. The Titans did get a good replacement for Jones in the secondary when they picked up former Colts’ CB Nick Harper, but Jones was also a weapon as a punt returner and his contributions on special teams will be missed. Overall, I rate the Titans 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense with better than average special teams. Tennessee is in a tough division so it looks like 6 or 7 wins tops for the Titans this year.
My ratings favor Jacksonville by 11 points and the Jaguars apply to a very good 30-11 ATS game 1 indicator. I’ll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
NY JETS 20 New England (-6.5) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
The Patriots had an off year offensively in 2006, averaging just 5.2 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but adding receivers Donte Stallworth, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker will provide a major upgrade for Tom Brady to throw to and I expect Brady to return to the high yards per pass play numbers he had registered in 2004 and 2005. The rushing attack looks like it will be solid with Laurence Maroney taking over full-time duties and running behind a very good offensive line and I rate the Patriots’ attack at 0.6 yppl better than average this season with potential to be even better if Randy Moss comes close to his old Minnesota Vikings form. The Pats’ defense was solid last season, rating at 0.2 ypr and 0.3 yppp better than average, but they should be even better with the addition of LB Adalius Thomas. New England is also among the best in the league on special teams and I rate the Patriots as one of my top 3 teams going into 2007.
New York was an average team last season and they were lucky to finish 10-6 and to make the playoffs. The Jets were 0.2 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack) and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive unit) and 1 point better than average on special teams. The Jets should be better offensively, as the addition of RB Thomas Jones from Chicago (1210 yards at 4.1 ypr) gives them a decent rushing attack after averaging just 3.7 ypr in 2006 and quarterback Chad Pennington should have another better than average season. Pennington averaged 6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average QB and that was right in line with his career rating of +0.4 yppp. While New York will probably be slightly better than average this season on offense it appears as if their defense will be slightly worse than average until they can prove that they can stop the run (allowed 4.7 ypr last season to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team). The Jets are likely going to be a better team overall this season but it’s doubtful that they’ll reach 10 wins and the playoffs given their tough schedule and mediocre talent.
My ratings only favor New England by 3 ½ points in this game, so it appears as if the Patriots were a bit over-hyped in the off-season. The Patriots also apply to a negative 11-25-1 ATS game 1 indicator that plays against road teams that were 12-4 or better the previous season. I’ll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion
Tampa Bay 20 SEATTLE (-6.0) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
The addition of Jeff Garcia to play quarterback will ensure that the Buccaneers will rebound from last year’s 4-12 record. Garcia is not going to put up the numbers he did in Philadelphia last season (6.5 yards per pass play), as the Eagles had better receivers than the Bucs do this year, but he should be around the 5.9 yppp average that he’s produced over the last 3 years with Cleveland, Detroit, and Philly. A decent pass attack will be a huge improvement over last year, when Tampa had to rely on rookie Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs finished the season averaging an NFC low 5.0 yppp. Tampa’s rushing attack suffered as teams stacked the line with little fear of the pass, but the Buccaneers should be closer to average running the ball this season after rating at 0.4 ypr worse than average in 2006. Overall, I peg Tampa Bay to be 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively after being 0.7 yppl worse than average last season. Tampa’s defense is getting older, but the Bucs should still be a mediocre unit after finishing a bit better than average defensively last season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). Tampa Bay plays a pretty easy schedule this season and they look like an 7 to 9 win team to me.
Seattle was a bad team last season but made the playoffs anyway by playing a bad schedule of teams. The Seahawks were out-scored 20.9 to 21.3 points per game and they were out-gained 4.8 yard per play to 5.4 yppl and had worse than average special teams. The offense was hurt last year by a less talented offensive line and an injury to top back Shaun Alexander. Alexander averaged just 3.6 ypr and while he’s likely to top that number this season he won’t come close to his lifetime average of 4.4 ypr, which was helped by a great offensive line. Only left tackle Walter Jones is an above average linemen now that All-Pro C Robbie Tobeck has retired, so Alexander’s days of topping 4.0 ypr are likely over. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had far less time to throw the ball last season and suffered too many sacks. The results was a horrible 5.5 yards per pass play. I expect the pass attack to rebound this season to an above average level, but not to the Pro Bowl level Hasselbeck was at a few years ago. The Seahawks’ defense also fell off sharply last season, as an injury to run-stuffing DT Marcel Tubbs greatly affected the run defense. Seattle allowed just 3.8 ypr in the 5 games Tubbs played in and 4.8 ypr in the 11 games in which Tubbs was out. The bad news is that Tubbs suffered another injury and will not play this season, leaving only untested rookie Brandon Mebane as a legitimate run stuffer. DE Patrick Kearny was added to help the pass rush and to CB Marcus Trufant should rebound from a bad year, so the pass defense should be better than average after struggling last season. The defense looks just average overall unless the Seahawks can find an adequate replacement for Tubbs. Seattle is a better team this season, but they’re just average overall and will struggle to get back to the playoffs. My ratings favor Seattle by just 4 points and Tampa Bay applies to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator, so I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
OAKLAND (-2.0) 23 Detroit 16
01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Lions fans are dreaming big this season thanks to a potential potent offense now loaded with good receivers after drafting WR Calvin Johnson with the #2 overall pick. Detroit should have a much better pass attack with Johnson joining Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, as the Lions lacked a good 3rd receiver last season. However, the offensive line is the league’s worst and quarterback Jon Kitna was sacked 63 times last season, so the line will have to get better before the Lions truly blossom offensively. Bringing running back Tatum Bell over from Denver isn’t going to add anything to the ground game since Bell’s 4.4 ypr was produced running behind Denver’s good offense line and he won’t have nearly that much success without holes to run through. Detroit was 0.1 yards per play worse than average last season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) despite throwing the ball nearly 70% of the time, but I rate the Lions’ attack at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. The offense will have to be even better than that to make up for a defense that was 0.4 yppl worse than average in 2006. That defense will get better against the run with DT Shaun Rogers back after he missed most of last season, but the pass defense will still be bad after losing their best cornerback Dre’ Bly to Denver in the trade for Bell. Detroit is still going to be worse than average defensively and worse than average overall this season, but they can greatly improve their 3-13 record if they can just win a few close games after gong 1-8 last season in games decided by 7 points or less.
I knew I would have the Raiders rated higher coming into this season than they were at the end of last season, but I’m surprised by how much the Silver and Black will be improved. Oakland had a very good defense last year, rating at 0.4 yards per play better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but their offense was so horrible that that defense was constantly put on the field with their backs against their own goal line. Raiders’ coach Art Shell made a HUGE mistake in hiring his old offensive coordinator from the 90’s despite his having been out of football for a decade. The results were horrendous, as the offense was constantly confused and had no belief in the plays that they were running – plays that simply didn’t work against modern defenses. Oakland has no good system for picking up blitzes and the Raiders’ quarterbacks were sacked a combined 72 times while Oakland averaged a pathetic 4.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while turning the ball over 46 times. The Raiders new head coach Lane Kiffen was smart enough to retain defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and the defense should be just as good as it was last season with all 11 starters returning. The offense will be much better too in Kiffin’s sophisticated offense and offensive line coach Tom Cable is installing a zone blocking scheme that suits the personnel much better. The Raiders’ linemen haven’t lived up to their massive potential because they haven’t been coached up at all. That has changed this year and the Raiders only allowed 7 sacks in 4 games with the quarterbacks no longer taking 7 step drops. The run blocking has also looked better and the Raiders should be a bit closer to average running the ball than they were last year. Oakland’s pass attack will be the major beneficiary of the coaching changes, as both Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper have proven to be serviceable quarterbacks and the receiving corps is not really too bad at all with Ronald Curry posting an impressive 8.2 yards per pass thrown to him last season and Jerry Porter returning after spending last season in Shell’s doghouse. The Raiders have averaged 5.7 yppp in the pre-season with McCown and Culpepper combining to average a solid 6.4 yppp. I realize that some of those numbers came against second string defensive units, but McCown averaged 5.5 yards per pass play as a starter in 2004 and 2005 in Arizona and Culpepper has averaged 5.4 yppp in his last two seasons, so the Raiders should be somewhere in that neighborhood throwing the ball this year (which is still much worse than the league average of 6.1 yppp). If that is the case then I rate the Raiders at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively, which makes them a pretty decent team if their defense is once again at 0.4 yppl better than average. That’s actually not that far fetched considering that the Raiders were only 0.2 yppl worse than average two years ago with Kerry Collins at quarterback. If the offensive improvement is as much as I think it’s going to be then the Raiders could be looking at a 7-9 or 8-8 season this year.
My ratings favor the Raiders by 6 ½ points and the Raiders apply to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator. I’ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion in this game at -3 points or less.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Afternoon fellas. It's BOB time.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Here comes a big move on Cincinnati tonight. Down to 3 at Skybook and elsewhere...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Navy is a play. Down a full point at some shops. I am using 15.5 now.
